Patriots Offense for 2008 (1 Viewer)

[Redsox fan]

Brady had 578 pass attempts last year. Second only to Drew Brees (652).

I have read a few articles that predict the Pats will go back to the ground game in 2008. The premise behind that prediction is that teams have studied what the Pats did last year and have measures in place to control their passing attack this year. That the Pats will run more this year either by choice or by force.

I think the majority of us will agree that we don't have expectations that Brady will throw 50 TDs and Moss will catch 23 TDs again this year. However, I am curious how many people feel the Pats will run a lot more this year than they did last year. Not a crazy prediction, but one that seems a bit strange given the success they had last year airing it out.

Any thoughts?

 

[Mr. Deltoid]

586 pass attempts as a team and 451 rush attempts last year. As a Pats fan I expect the balance to shift slightly towards the run, so let's say 530 pass attempts and 500 rushes (they've just always been pass-first with Brady at QB, so I cannot conceive of them running more than they throw).

That very VERY simple math leaves Brady with about 90% of his production from last year, if you assume that on a game by game basis he will be as productive, which I am.

Would you be down with 4300 passing yards and 45 TDs from your QB? Even at 4000 and 40 TDs he's still well worth a 1st round selection IMHO.

I like Moss even more - the two seem to be at the top of their respective games, and will be substantially more on the same page than they were last year. If Brady's TDs drop off precipitously I really think it will be at the expense of Welker/Gaffney/Jackson/Watson. Moss is a stone cold lock for at least 15 scores if Brady remains healthy.

Mr. D

 

[SeniorVBDStudent]

586 pass attempts as a team and 451 rush attempts last year. As a Pats fan I expect the balance to shift slightly towards the run, so let's say 530 pass attempts and 500 rushes (they've just always been pass-first with Brady at QB, so I cannot conceive of them running more than they throw). That very VERY simple math leaves Brady with about 90% of his production from last year, if you assume that on a game by game basis he will be as productive, which I am. Would you be down with 4300 passing yards and 45 TDs from your QB? Even at 4000 and 40 TDs he's still well worth a 1st round selection IMHO. I like Moss even more - the two seem to be at the top of their respective games, and will be substantially more on the same page than they were last year. If Brady's TDs drop off precipitously I really think it will be at the expense of Welker/Gaffney/Jackson/Watson. Moss is a stone cold lock for at least 15 scores if Brady remains healthy.Mr. D

I've been thinking recently that Welker will surprisingly enough come close to matching last year, since Tom is going to have to get rid of the ball, and that Moss's numbers go down due to cannibalism by Gaffney, Watson and Maroney/Morris/Jordan.

 

[twitch]

I think his attempts will drop similarly to how they did from '02 to '03. They fell that year from 601 to 527. Then in '04, they fell to 474. There are no comparisons to Randy Moss from those earlier teams, but they won titles during both of those seasons. And Im gonna stick to my guns in the belief that if they really want to win another title, they need to show more committment to the run. I expect the swing from passes to additional runs to be something like 5/game. That's not a huge #, but 80 less passes, and 80 more runs could swing some #s potentially one way or the other.

 

[Mr Capicollo]

I think the attempts likely have nowhere to go but down, but that this team is less reason to change much about what they're doing than any other pass-happy team in memory. They have all of the offensive weapons you could ask for to be a pass-first team, so rather than treating last year as an anamoly overall, I think you expect more of the same generally speaking as it relates to play calling, with only a few more runs relatively speaking because their TD production almost certainly has to fall, which means somewhat closer games in the 4th quarter and more reason to want to wind the clock down with running plays.

Their run pass % ratio last year was about 43/57, so I'd probably only expect around a 45/55 this year, which is still very strongly a pass-first team. Using last year's numbers, that would mean a reduction of less than one pass attempt per game (about 12 over the course of the season).