Percentage Chance Biden Doesn't Finish Term? (1 Viewer)

[the moops]

Eight presidents have died in office, of which five died during their first term. Since we've had only 45 presidents, that's 5/45 --> 11% chance the POTUS doesn't complete 4 years. Granted, medicine and presidential security are a lot better than in days past, but Biden's age probably offsets some of that benefit. 10% seems about right.

I think we can rule out the two guys who died in the 19th century. Harrison died of a pneumonia and they treated him with ipecac, Castor oil, calomel, and finally with a boiled mixture of crude petroleum and Virginia snakeroot. Taylor died of diarrhea.

4 were assasinated. I think presidential protection is ridiculously better than it was during Lincoln, Garfield, and McKinley's time.

Harding had a heart attack, and our treatments of heart ailments are light years better now than in 1923

FDR had a stroke. He was a notorius chain smoker

All that to say, I don't think using historical deaths of presidents is all that useful in determining Biden's chances

 

[Terminalxylem]

I think we can rule out the two guys who died in the 19th century. Harrison died of a pneumonia and they treated him with ipecac, Castor oil, calomel, and finally with a boiled mixture of crude petroleum and Virginia snakeroot. Taylor died of diarrhea.

4 were assasinated. I think presidential protection is ridiculously better than it was during Lincoln, Garfield, and McKinley's time.

Harding had a heart attack, and our treatments of heart ailments are light years better now than in 1923

FDR had a stroke. He was a notorius chain smoker

All that to say, I don't think using historical deaths of presidents is all that useful in determining Biden's chances

But none of them had dementia 

 

[Leroy Hoard]

Much like a more mild version of the current resident,  he'll stick around as long as possible just to piss people off.

 

[Insein]

He's not going to die. But the odds are very high he won't finish his term. 

 

[AAABatteries]

He's not going to die. But the odds are very high he won't finish his term. 

What do you base this on?  If anything, his death would most likely make up a decent percentage of the reasons why he wouldn’t.  

 

[Insein]

What do you base this on?  If anything, his death would most likely make up a decent percentage of the reasons why he wouldn’t.  

Health complications could force him to resign. Doesn't mean he'll die.

 

[timschochet]

Health complications could force him to resign. Doesn't mean he'll die.

That’s very unlikely. 

 

[timschochet]

Death is really the only reason he won’t finish. 
 

Actually I think it’s more likely than not he serves two terms. 

 

[AAABatteries]

Health complications could force him to resign. Doesn't mean he'll die.

I don’t see how this equates to very likely - he exercises a lot, I’m assuming eats well, isn’t overweight and has access to the best doctors- seems likely he makes it four years. 

 

[Insein]

Death is really the only reason he won’t finish. 
 

Actually I think it’s more likely than not he serves two terms. 

I definitely don't see that happening. He'll be the good soldier, serve his term and then step aside to allow Harris her chance. Or he won't go willingly and be forced aside due to health or other reasons. I don't think they'll wait till 28.

 

[Sabertooth]

I hope he just retires in about two years ushering in Kamala Harris as President.  Especially if the economy takes a #### early on.  Then she can "save" it and use it as a cudgel for her second term.  

 

[lazyike]

Imo it’s a pretty low chance he finishes out the term. The job ages people fast , Donald appears to be the only one it hasn’t. The pressure will accelerate whatever is going on currently. Unless of course he’s just a figure head.

I disagree that the last 4 years hasn’t aged President Trump. He seems older and is living in an alternative reality in regards to the election he can’t admit he lost. There are factors that have drug him down

-the fact that he did lose the election to a man he has so little respect for

-a bout with covid that often has long lasting affects

- a worry about the investigation by Cy Vance in NY

-that his legacy won’t be what he thinks it should be

 

[lazyike]

I work with people in the dementia field, and most of them voted for Biden. Some of them, experienced neuropsychologists for example, were concerned about his cognitive status. I was also worried. 

But the dementia speculation was a little overblown based on his performance in the debates and post-election. He may qualify for a condition known as mild cognitive impairment (MCI) which requires measurable cognitive deficits, which don't affect everyday functioning. Most cases of MCI don't progress over a 2-3 year period, some even get better, but a sizeable portion do have the beginning of an early neurodegenegative disorder, such as Alzheimer's Disease. His history of stuttering and aneurysm repair could confound a diagnosis, especially when we're speculating without any direct examination or interview with those close to him.  But his age alone does represent a risk for cognitive decline. 

I agree the dementia speculation was overblown and before the debates I thought it could be a problem for Biden myself. But after watching the debates and listening to some of his speeches ( the one at Gettysburg was particularly outstanding) I am not worried about it now. I believe many of his gaffes that (all candidates have) can be tied to his stuttering that I believe he has dealt with very well. As we age I would acknowledge thinking quick on your feet begins to be an issue but analyzing things with a bit of time is an attribute we call wisdom which I see in President-elect Biden that I never saw in President Trump

 

[lazyike]

I agree the dementia speculation was overblown and before the debates I thought it could be a problem for Biden myself. But after watching the debates and listening to some of his speeches ( the one at Gettysburg was particularly outstanding) I am not worried about it now. I believe many of his gaffes that (all candidates have) can be tied to his stuttering that I believe he has dealt with very well. As we age I would acknowledge thinking quick on your feet begins to be an issue but analyzing things with a bit of time is an attribute we call wisdom which I see in President-elect Biden that I never saw in President Trump

Biden’s speech at Gettysburg ( teleprompter or not this didn’t come from a man with dementia)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YoiUnwTz4lA

 

[Guest]

Actuarial tables give him a 5% chance of dying, also many healthcare professionals have prognosticated that he shows dementia symptoms.

What are the chances he doesn't finish his term for any reason?

Not only is Biden painfully unqualified, due to ALMOST INNUMERABLE ethical and moral issues, he is also apparently incompetent mentally as well as often incoherent. I hope Divine providence shall remove both him and his partners in CRIME very, VERY SOON.

 

[Guest]

Actuarial tables give him a 5% chance of dying, also many healthcare professionals have prognosticated that he shows dementia symptoms.

What are the chances he doesn't finish his term for any reason?

Not only is Biden painfully unqualified, due to ALMOST INNUMERABLE ethical and moral issues, he is also apparently incompetent mentally as well as often incoherent. I hope Divine providence shall remove both him and his partners in CRIME very, VERY SOON.

 

[NorvilleBarnes]

Anyone change their mind?

 

[joffer]

seems more likely he finishes now

 

[knowledge dropper]

Anyone change their mind?

Sadly, this isn’t just a Biden thing.  This entire administration is unfit.  The left wing, woke, cancel culture mindset is unfit and incapable of leading and maintaining US exceptionalism 

 

[BladeRunner]

Anyone change their mind?

Nope.  I extended my original time by 6 months.  I don't think he finishes out this year.

And if that doesn't work, I'll extend it by another 6 months. 

 

[Stealthycat]

the leaders of the world would eat Kamala alive - they don't respect Joe but they'll go out of their way with Kamala

 

[Terminalxylem]

Anyone change their mind?

Nope. You?

 

[NorvilleBarnes]

Nope. You?

Oh yes   Really wish I'd voted for this absolute cluster of a national embarrassment. 

 

[AAABatteries]

Oh yes   Really wish I'd voted for this absolute cluster of a national embarrassment. 

This thread is about whether he will finish his term.

 

[Terminalxylem]

This thread is about whether he will finish his term.

Yeah, I guess I misunderstood the question.

 

[GordonGekko]

the leaders of the world would eat Kamala alive - they don't respect Joe but they'll go out of their way with Kamala

There's an incentive in place for Nikki Haley, Ron De Santis and the establishment GOP to leave Biden in office for his full term.  The longer this brutal administration lasts, the more of a guarantee there will be for a Red Wave in the 2022 Mid Terms and the 2024 general cycle. It's not good for the American people, but it's an advantage to try to get Haley a Super Majority at some point.

There's an incentive in place for the silent cabal of unelected power brokers and corporate thugs pulling the strings behind Biden ( The worst kept secret in Washington is that Susan Rice is the hatchet and Barack Obama is the mouthpiece for the grifter leftist establishment) to want to keep him in office. He's gone by 2024, but they will have 3 plus years to milk out what grift and political pork they can accordingly.

The person with the most incentive to get Biden OUT OF OFFICE is actually Kamala Harris. She won't win POTUS in 2024 in a free and fair election. She might get the ticket as a designated punching bag the way Mitt Romney was sent to the sacrificial altar when everyone knew he couldn't beat Obama. But that's to preserve actual future contenders who are being groomed. By trying to get rid of Biden now, she can at least say she was President for X amount of time versus not at all.

Here's the pure madness part of all this. You now have an administration where you have the VP and POTUS both with incentive to wipe each other out. It's not like they were friendly during the debates. She called him a racist and a clear sexual offender. You have a POTUS that many people believe has dementia or suffers from so much cognitive decline that he no longer has agency. Now key players in the political system like the Joint Chiefs are thrust into a position where they have to consider what is an order that is meant to serve the American people or meant to serve the ramblings and bumblings of a man who just wants his egg salad sandwich for lunch. That's terrifying. Then you have multiple agencies with different agendas and different loyalties. Does anyone where want to see the White House devolve into widespread pockets of firefights between Secret Service, US Marshals SOG, CIA SAD, Capitol Police,  the United States Marine Corps, the FBI, Customs, Diplomatic Security Service, the DEA and any personal contractors hired by the various politicians there for personal security?

The pathway for coup all coming from a SINGLE PARTY is in place.

If Kamala Harris wants POTUS, her only chance now at POTUS, she has to make sure Biden is pushed out of office. How far is that push?

And yes, the rest of the world is watching and America's enemies only see weakness.

The next major war in the world will likely be fought on American soil. It won't be a stand up fight like WW2,  not to start, it will be terrorism and asymmetrical warfare in our own streets.

Some of you , not all, voted for this, so be prepared to watch actual freedom die in front of you.

 

[Stealthycat]

If Kamala Harris wants POTUS, her only chance now at POTUS, she has to make sure Biden is pushed out of office. How far is that push?

this is true

 

[Phil Elliott]

There's an incentive in place for Nikki Haley, Ron De Santis and the establishment GOP to leave Biden in office for his full term.  The longer this brutal administration lasts, the more of a guarantee there will be for a Red Wave in the 2022 Mid Terms and the 2024 general cycle. It's not good for the American people, but it's an advantage to try to get Haley a Super Majority at some point.

There's an incentive in place for the silent cabal of unelected power brokers and corporate thugs pulling the strings behind Biden ( The worst kept secret in Washington is that Susan Rice is the hatchet and Barack Obama is the mouthpiece for the grifter leftist establishment) to want to keep him in office. He's gone by 2024, but they will have 3 plus years to milk out what grift and political pork they can accordingly.

The person with the most incentive to get Biden OUT OF OFFICE is actually Kamala Harris. She won't win POTUS in 2024 in a free and fair election. She might get the ticket as a designated punching bag the way Mitt Romney was sent to the sacrificial altar when everyone knew he couldn't beat Obama. But that's to preserve actual future contenders who are being groomed. By trying to get rid of Biden now, she can at least say she was President for X amount of time versus not at all.

Here's the pure madness part of all this. You now have an administration where you have the VP and POTUS both with incentive to wipe each other out. It's not like they were friendly during the debates. She called him a racist and a clear sexual offender. You have a POTUS that many people believe has dementia or suffers from so much cognitive decline that he no longer has agency. Now key players in the political system like the Joint Chiefs are thrust into a position where they have to consider what is an order that is meant to serve the American people or meant to serve the ramblings and bumblings of a man who just wants his egg salad sandwich for lunch. That's terrifying. Then you have multiple agencies with different agendas and different loyalties. Does anyone where want to see the White House devolve into widespread pockets of firefights between Secret Service, US Marshals SOG, CIA SAD, Capitol Police,  the United States Marine Corps, the FBI, Customs, Diplomatic Security Service, the DEA and any personal contractors hired by the various politicians there for personal security?

The pathway for coup all coming from a SINGLE PARTY is in place.

If Kamala Harris wants POTUS, her only chance now at POTUS, she has to make sure Biden is pushed out of office. How far is that push?

And yes, the rest of the world is watching and America's enemies only see weakness.

The next major war in the world will likely be fought on American soil. It won't be a stand up fight like WW2,  not to start, it will be terrorism and asymmetrical warfare in our own streets.

Some of you , not all, voted for this, so be prepared to watch actual freedom die in front of you.

I guess we see how far they will go.

 

[parrot]

Some of you , not all, voted for this, so be prepared to watch actual freedom die in front of you.

Yeah, really wishing I would have voted for the guy who was willing to destroy American democracy on the spot when he lost the election.  

 

[GordonGekko]

Yeah, really wishing I would have voted for the guy who was willing to destroy American democracy on the spot when he lost the election.  

Here's a thought.

Bernie Sanders had the DNC ticket stolen from him in the 2016 primaries. No one disputes this. Even the hard left leaning MSM won't dispute this.

I don't even like Bernie Sanders and I don't like his politics, but I acknowledge he didn't carry the toxic baggage that came with Hillary Clinton. Will full Party support, Sanders might have won. In which case, we would NOT have seen Trump in office and if Sanders won reelection, would have not seen Biden/Harris in office. While there might have been other problems, we'd also not have January 6th and we might have seen a better plan to deal with Afghanistan.

Do you know why Bernie Sanders never had a chance?

Smug elitist tone deaf greedy power brokers with the establishment, fat off big corporate payoffs, within DNC HQ, DCCC, the DNC Super Delegates and all down the ticket in key areas STOLE that from every Democrat in America.

ZERO to do with the GOP. ZERO to do with Conservatives. ZERO to do with Republicans. ZERO to do with poor rural white Christian America. ZERO to do with Trump.

ACTUAL FREEDOM WAS DESTROYED WITHIN THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY BEFORE TRUMP EVEN GOT A SINGLE VOTE.

What do I wish? That everyone here had real opportunity to vote for Bernie Sanders, if that was their personal political voice and expression as such, in a free and fair election.

There was a pathway where all of this could have been avoided. If only for that small detail of actually having a free and fair election from the Democratic Party.

 

[parrot]

Here's a thought.

Bernie Sanders had the DNC ticket stolen from him in the 2016 primaries. No one disputes this. Even the hard left leaning MSM won't dispute this.

I don't even like Bernie Sanders and I don't like his politics, but I acknowledge he didn't carry the toxic baggage that came with Hillary Clinton. Will full Party support, Sanders might have won. In which case, we would NOT have seen Trump in office and if Sanders won reelection, would have not seen Biden/Harris in office. While there might have been other problems, we'd also not have January 6th and we might have seen a better plan to deal with Afghanistan.

Do you know why Bernie Sanders never had a chance?

Smug elitist tone deaf greedy power brokers with the establishment, fat off big corporate payoffs, within DNC HQ, DCCC, the DNC Super Delegates and all down the ticket in key areas STOLE that from every Democrat in America.

ZERO to do with the GOP. ZERO to do with Conservatives. ZERO to do with Republicans. ZERO to do with poor rural white Christian America. ZERO to do with Trump.

ACTUAL FREEDOM WAS DESTROYED WITHIN THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY BEFORE TRUMP EVEN GOT A SINGLE VOTE.

What do I wish? That everyone here had real opportunity to vote for Bernie Sanders, if that was their personal political voice and expression as such, in a free and fair election.

There was a pathway where all of this could have been avoided. If only for that small detail of actually having a free and fair election from the Democratic Party.

Which has ZERO to do with the fact that the last election came down to a choice between Joe Biden and the guy who had already shown a willingness to do everything in his power to destroy every check and balance we have to try and maintain power.  So stop trying to bust the balls of those of us who chose Biden over that.  

 

[squistion]

Here's a thought.

Bernie Sanders had the DNC ticket stolen from him in the 2016 primaries. No one disputes this. Even the hard left leaning MSM won't dispute this.

I don't even like Bernie Sanders and I don't like his politics, but I acknowledge he didn't carry the toxic baggage that came with Hillary Clinton. Will full Party support, Sanders might have won. In which case, we would NOT have seen Trump in office and if Sanders won reelection, would have not seen Biden/Harris in office. While there might have been other problems, we'd also not have January 6th and we might have seen a better plan to deal with Afghanistan.

Do you know why Bernie Sanders never had a chance?

Smug elitist tone deaf greedy power brokers with the establishment, fat off big corporate payoffs, within DNC HQ, DCCC, the DNC Super Delegates and all down the ticket in key areas STOLE that from every Democrat in America.

ZERO to do with the GOP. ZERO to do with Conservatives. ZERO to do with Republicans. ZERO to do with poor rural white Christian America. ZERO to do with Trump.

ACTUAL FREEDOM WAS DESTROYED WITHIN THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY BEFORE TRUMP EVEN GOT A SINGLE VOTE.

What do I wish? That everyone here had real opportunity to vote for Bernie Sanders, if that was their personal political voice and expression as such, in a free and fair election.

There was a pathway where all of this could have been avoided. If only for that small detail of actually having a free and fair election from the Democratic Party.

Actually that is disputed by the "hard left leaning MSN" if you mean like CNN or MSNBC. Hillary won the popular vote handily over Sanders in non-caucus primary states and didn't need the Super Delegates to clinch the nomination.

 

[Phil Elliott]

Not sure Kamala will last as long as Biden. Where is she?

 

[tonydead]

Which has ZERO to do with the fact that the last election came down to a choice between Joe Biden and the guy who had already shown a willingness to do everything in his power to destroy every check and balance we have to try and maintain power.  So stop trying to bust the balls of those of us who chose Biden over that.  

Zero?  Popular belief is anyone other than Hillary beats Trump. You want to blame Trump instead of yourself for Biden you can just keep passing the buck down to Hillary. 

 

[NorvilleBarnes]

stop trying to bust the balls of those of us who chose Biden 

HAHAHAHAHA

Nope.

 

[GordonGekko]

But the dementia speculation was a little overblown based on his performance in the debates and post-election. He may qualify for a condition known as mild cognitive impairment (MCI) which requires measurable cognitive deficits, which don't affect everyday functioning. Most cases of MCI don't progress over a 2-3 year period, some even get better, but a sizeable portion do have the beginning of an early neurodegenegative disorder, such as Alzheimer's Disease. His history of stuttering and aneurysm repair could confound a diagnosis, especially when we're speculating without any direct examination or interview with those close to him.  But his age alone does represent a risk for cognitive decline. 

I respect the clearly difficult work you must do with your clients and patients.

That being said, Biden has control over, from estimates, anywhere from 4 thousand to 6 thousand nuclear weapons.

You are saying you aren't sure and there is no clear medical evidence to confirm what people fear with Biden and his cognitive decline.

Here's my question - Do you want to take that bet when he could incinerate the entire world multiple times over?

His Party could picked anyone. Biden wasn't the only contender. ( Though I'd argue he was the contender that had the look of someone the establishment left could control)

It's not a bet or a risk I consider worth taking when you consider the lives of my godson, your kids, the children of the people here, the children of all Americans.

 

[Max Power]

Tim Pool made a good point on his podcast the other night.  How can people have faith in Biden's cognitive abilities when he is clearly reading off a teleprompter and doesn't take non-scripted questions? He acknowledges people are directing him behind the scenes and when he goes off script it becomes a ####show. 

Do you think this man is in cabinet meetings or meeting with world leaders and they think he is in charge of the room?  Is the reason we get presser after presser with no answers because there is no leadership?  Do they just have no answers? 

It's clear his time has come.  Joe is incapable of holding his position.