Perception vs. Reality (1 Viewer)

[OG_GF]

Full disclosure: I also write a FF column @ The-PFFL.com under the same name as the title of this post. But it could be called, studs and duds or even just surprises. Good surprises and bad surprises. But, I chose that name for my article because I wanted to actually touch on some broader elements of game theory, and not just say who I think will do well in the future. It's actually more about analyzing the past, which is a lot easier. What did we think was going to happen, vs. what actually happened.

Then I ran into this video, and even though it's not about FF, I would suggest every FF player take the 20 minutes to watch this:

FF is a big game of expected value. Seems like right now the top RBs are Foster, Rice and McCoy. The top QBs are Rodgers, Brees and Brady. Some things, are what we expected ... but what REALLY surprised you so far?

P.S. I may quote you in my article this week, so, if you want to stay off the record, just say so.

 

[OG_GF]

I found that video interesting because I am also a poker player, and I was like that from the start ... that was my approach. Someone once said, the goal in poker is to get your opponents to put their money in bad.

Sometimes you lose though. 89 percent to win is not 100 percent. There is variance. There is some luck involved. Good fantasy football players can only hope to win over a long sample of seasons.

For instance, right off the bat, in a 10 team league ... no skill involved, you should only have a 10% chance of winning first place. All you can do, is try and make moves that make that % go up.

And your perception, vs. reality are always going to be 2 different things. Almost always. Sometimes, I guess in poker and FF you can be dead on perfect ... but it's rare.

I remember once in a poker hand at the casino, I had what's called the "nuts". I guess it comes from old west wagons though ... they would take the nuts off their wagon wheels, so you couldn't steal it, and when some guy threw his nuts in the pot, they knew he had an unbeatable hand. I had it. KJ with A, Q, 10 on the baord, no pair, no possible flush. I bet. I bet big. I want to appear to be bluffing. Guy says to me, "What do you have? Tell me one card." and I lied. I said, "I have an ace." ... and I said it in a smug way like, I figured top pair was good, and he called. I turned over the KJ and he was all, "You lied to me!" , yep.

"It's actually against the rules for me to tell you the truth there.", I said.

That's chapter 2 of playing poker, finding ways to maximize your wins. It's all about perception and reality.

 

[Biabreakable]

Interesting topic. I have seen many examples of this over the years.

When one makes projections for example, I always know that my projections will be wrong, however the key is to try to make them close to being correct as possible while accepting that there are so many variables that can change the outcome and to include as many of these variables as possible while also finding a way to quantify them that is comparable. To not overvalue one variable to the point where it does more harm than good.

In FF I have found it to be easier to project a season than it is to project the next game. From my perspective this is because it is easier to project a larger sample size, where outcomes will somewhat average themselves out over time, where a team/player in question very likely will have up and down performance each week, but in the end will still fall somewhere within a range that may be easier to project in total than to say player X will have a 60% chance of scoring a TD in specific match up but will end of season have 8-10TD. Often the end of year projection will be closer than the weekly one. Said player might have 3 of those 8-10TD in one game but still end up with 8-10 TD.

I think this is why I prefer dynasty type formats to redraft. Because it is easier for me figure out the expected value of a player for the next few seasons than it is for me to figure out how that same player will perform each week.

It may be helpful to the discussion if you could perhaps ask a more specific question for people to respond to. I like the topic, but I am still somewhat unclear about where you would like the discussion to go. I could give several other examples of games where this process of expected value is used in games beyond FF.

 

[OG_GF]

Thanks.

I guess the more specific question is ... how can you, or do you apply this game theory to FF? Besides drafting.

I have some secrets about maximizing your wins and minimizing your losses, but I'd like to see what other people say first.

Also I would like to see what people think are the top surprises .... good or bad ... so far this year. What player surprised you the most? Was way off what you predicted.