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Personal Finance Advice and Education! (10 Viewers)

Let's say I wanted to go ultra conservative for a while in my 403b.

Would FSIXX pretty much be as close to 100% secure as possible?
It'll be secure but you'll lose money over the long haul. The interest in the fund is lower than the inflation rate hence you losing money. Putting money into some dividend energy stock is "just as" secure but should do better in the interest range. There are many other options than the one you put above.
I am aware it's "losing money" over the long term, I am just wondering how secure it actually is if the market takes a giant ####

Say for example I put my money in there now and the market goes to #### like back in 2008. How would it be affected?
It could lose money as well but if the market loses 25% of its value, the fund you listed may lose 2-5% of its value. You won't lose much but depending on the amount of money you have in it, you won't gain much either. I'd think a better option might be getting a 1yr - 5 yr CD instead.

 
It could lose money as well but if the market loses 25% of its value, the fund you listed may lose 2-5% of its value. You won't lose much but depending on the amount of money you have in it, you won't gain much either. I'd think a better option might be getting a 1yr - 5 yr CD instead.
I can't exactly move my money from my 403b into a CD.......................or can I???

 
:wall:

Sometimes I just get frustrated with people. Condensed version of a conversation today...

Me: I can save you well over $20K on your loan.

Nimrod: I don't want to pay $1,500 in closing costs.

Me: Are you planning on selling anytime soon?

Nimrod: No.

Me: So, you will make up that $1,500 plus save thousands and thousands more. That $1,500 does not come out of pocket, it can be rolled into the loan. Why would you not want to do that?

Nimrod: I don't want to pay $1,500.

Me: :shock:

:wall:
A person convinced against their will is of the same opinion still.

It seems like with money more than anything people are extremely happy to ignore facts and good advice.

I've quit dispensing advice to friends, it's more often led to them doing the complete opposite.

 
I've quit dispensing advice to friends, it's more often led to them doing the complete opposite.
This happens way too much. Not just with money. It's a really weird phenomenon, and I think it should be studied with federally funded grants.

At work, when talking to management, it's even worse I think. I am going to start offering up the complete opposite of what I think should happen with a few things and see if it works.

 
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Speaking of Personal Capital I am getting one of their free reviews in a couple weeks. We'll see what they have to say.

 
I actually decided to move my money (not particularly any kind of huge amount) out of the index funds and into a FSIXX money market fund several days ago. Not sure exactly which day the change was made, but I think after monday.

I know everywhere, even the 300 page book I read, says market timing is a stupid idea, but I feel like the risk is quite low considering the prolonged hot streak the S&P has experienced. Seems less risky to put my money into something really safe right now and forgo any uptick in the market than it is to let it ride and possibly tank some.

So far so good anyway since VINIX is down over 1% since then, and all the talk (not that I even know WHICH talk to listen to) is about how it can't keep climbing like it has, and some sort of market correction is inevitable.

 
I actually decided to move my money (not particularly any kind of huge amount) out of the index funds and into a FSIXX money market fund several days ago. Not sure exactly which day the change was made, but I think after monday.

I know everywhere, even the 300 page book I read, says market timing is a stupid idea, but I feel like the risk is quite low considering the prolonged hot streak the S&P has experienced. Seems less risky to put my money into something really safe right now and forgo any uptick in the market than it is to let it ride and possibly tank some.

So far so good anyway since VINIX is down over 1% since then, and all the talk (not that I even know WHICH talk to listen to) is about how it can't keep climbing like it has, and some sort of market correction is inevitable.
The market can stay irrational far longer than you can stay solvent.

Stay thirsty my friend,.. money market is a guaranteed loser over time... there's always a bull market somewhere

 
I actually decided to move my money (not particularly any kind of huge amount) out of the index funds and into a FSIXX money market fund several days ago. Not sure exactly which day the change was made, but I think after monday.

I know everywhere, even the 300 page book I read, says market timing is a stupid idea, but I feel like the risk is quite low considering the prolonged hot streak the S&P has experienced. Seems less risky to put my money into something really safe right now and forgo any uptick in the market than it is to let it ride and possibly tank some.

So far so good anyway since VINIX is down over 1% since then, and all the talk (not that I even know WHICH talk to listen to) is about how it can't keep climbing like it has, and some sort of market correction is inevitable.
The market can stay irrational far longer than you can stay solvent.

Stay thirsty my friend,.. money market is a guaranteed loser over time... there's always a bull market somewhere
Yup. Extremely conservative move.

 
I actually decided to move my money (not particularly any kind of huge amount) out of the index funds and into a FSIXX money market fund several days ago. Not sure exactly which day the change was made, but I think after monday.

I know everywhere, even the 300 page book I read, says market timing is a stupid idea, but I feel like the risk is quite low considering the prolonged hot streak the S&P has experienced. Seems less risky to put my money into something really safe right now and forgo any uptick in the market than it is to let it ride and possibly tank some.

So far so good anyway since VINIX is down over 1% since then, and all the talk (not that I even know WHICH talk to listen to) is about how it can't keep climbing like it has, and some sort of market correction is inevitable.
The market can stay irrational far longer than you can stay solvent.

Stay thirsty my friend,.. money market is a guaranteed loser over time... there's always a bull market somewhere
Yup. Extremely conservative move.
Is it conservative, or risky?? Debateable IMO.

 
I actually decided to move my money (not particularly any kind of huge amount) out of the index funds and into a FSIXX money market fund several days ago. Not sure exactly which day the change was made, but I think after monday.

I know everywhere, even the 300 page book I read, says market timing is a stupid idea, but I feel like the risk is quite low considering the prolonged hot streak the S&P has experienced. Seems less risky to put my money into something really safe right now and forgo any uptick in the market than it is to let it ride and possibly tank some.

So far so good anyway since VINIX is down over 1% since then, and all the talk (not that I even know WHICH talk to listen to) is about how it can't keep climbing like it has, and some sort of market correction is inevitable.
The market can stay irrational far longer than you can stay solvent.

Stay thirsty my friend,.. money market is a guaranteed loser over time... there's always a bull market somewhere
Yup. Extremely conservative move.
Is it conservative, or risky?? Debateable IMO.
Let me ask you this, at what point do you move your money back into the index funds?

 
Let me ask you this, at what point do you move your money back into the index funds?
The plan is to wait for either the end of a downtrend, or a level trend that lasts for maybe a couple or few months.

I have money invested in my rental property also, so not like ALL my money is doing "nothing" right now. Just taking a chance that the S&P isn't going to continue to hit all time highs every coup;e days for a while.

I could easily be wrong here, but it seems the chances are greater of say a 5-10% downswing than a 5-10% upswing over the next couple months.

If it keeps going up, well, then I was wrong. I believe it was at 194 when the money switched. 191.83 right now.

Side question, is there a way to track the daily numbers for this to know what it was at the start/end of monday-friday?

 
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Let's say is does gradually keep going up; maybe it only gains a few % per year over the next few years or maybe it goes up more than that, you're just going to continue to stay out until one of your two conditions are met?

 
Let's say is does gradually keep going up; maybe it only gains a few % per year over the next few years or maybe it goes up more than that, you're just going to continue to stay out until one of your two conditions are met?
No, that isnt what I said at all. I never mentioned anything about "years".

Again though, is there a way to see the stock price for VINIX for the beginning and end of any day I want? Say I wanted to look at last friday.

 
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I would say good luck gg but that would hurt the rest of us. Considering you have said you know little about the market and ask a ton of questions, do you really think this is a good move when others in here are against it?

 
I would say good luck gg but that would hurt the rest of us. Considering you have said you know little about the market and ask a ton of questions, do you really think this is a good move when others in here are against it?
Good move?? Don't know. But the worst-case-scenario right now doesn't seem to be all that horrible, especially when compared to the best-case-scenario (if you can really call it best case, but you know what I mean by that hopefully).

Will update my idiocy if/when I feel a change is in order. :ph34r:

 
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But hey, we can all be winners here. Market takes a short dump, I switch back, market goes back up. And the entire Craps table cheers wildly :thumbup:

 
Probably the best advice I can give anyone in this thread...is don't follow ghost guys advice

Gg > glllll

 
Why not hold off buying more index funds right now, if you think the market has topped, and just buy more when your conditions have been met?
I am holding off and am investing in the money market. Enough to get the company match and to make sure i dont have any money taxed in the higher tax bracket. I moved the money in my portfolio into the money market because i thought the S&P would go down.

Not talking about some crazy amount of money here, but since i swapped over the weekend i have saved myself some money that would have been lost.

Simply put, i felt the chances of a large decrease were much higher than a large increase. If i end up losing out on a small increase, so be it.

If it goes up a lot then I will feel stupid.

 
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GG are you close to retirement? Do you plan on using your retirement savings from something other than retirement?

The only time I make changes is if I feel one sector will give me a better return over a medium or long term. And I usually do this by adjusting future contributions. Until I get closer to retirement, I try not to worry too much about the roller coaster ride, I just want to have as many roller coasters as possible when it's over.

 
Let's say is does gradually keep going up; maybe it only gains a few % per year over the next few years or maybe it goes up more than that, you're just going to continue to stay out until one of your two conditions are met?
No, that isnt what I said at all. I never mentioned anything about "years".

Again though, is there a way to see the stock price for VINIX for the beginning and end of any day I want? Say I wanted to look at last friday.
Here you go. Mutual funds are priced after the close. They do not change price intraday.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/hp?s=VINIX+Historical+Prices

Good luck. I would be more inclined to do what bucky suggests and just hold off adding. What are your reasons for believing the S&P will go down enough (on top of any increase before that happens) to make the move to money market worthwhile?

 
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GG are you close to retirement? Do you plan on using your retirement savings from something other than retirement?

The only time I make changes is if I feel one sector will give me a better return over a medium or long term. And I usually do this by adjusting future contributions. Until I get closer to retirement, I try not to worry too much about the roller coaster ride, I just want to have as many roller coasters as possible when it's over.
Please let the Gordon Gecko alias rest in peace.

 
I don't think timing the market is ever the right play. I've done it before, it worked. I had a thesis and it played out. I was also a trader at the time in the money markets, so I had a good feel for what was going on in the economy.

I understand people are going to take views and want to time. But at least have a ####### reason for why you think that. Otherwise, you're just flipping a coin with very long odds. If you just want to guess go to a casino and play craps.

 
I don't think timing the market is ever the right play. I've done it before, it worked. I had a thesis and it played out. I was also a trader at the time in the money markets, so I had a good feel for what was going on in the economy.

I understand people are going to take views and want to time. But at least have a ####### reason for why you think that. Otherwise, you're just flipping a coin with very long odds. If you just want to guess go to a casino and play craps.
Are we comparing a 403b money market investment with a company match to a casino trip now?

I have a reason. I talked with someone I trust with financial advice who is doing something similar. Unfortunately i cannot regurgitate his reasonings.

I am putting in enough to hit some cutoff points, and the extra money I get in my check is going towards my mortgage.

It isnt the popular move. Noted.

 
I don't think timing the market is ever the right play. I've done it before, it worked. I had a thesis and it played out. I was also a trader at the time in the money markets, so I had a good feel for what was going on in the economy.

I understand people are going to take views and want to time. But at least have a ####### reason for why you think that. Otherwise, you're just flipping a coin with very long odds. If you just want to guess go to a casino and play craps.
Are we comparing a 403b money market investment with a company match to a casino trip now?
I think that analogy works fine here. :shrug:

 
I don't think timing the market is ever the right play. I've done it before, it worked. I had a thesis and it played out. I was also a trader at the time in the money markets, so I had a good feel for what was going on in the economy.

I understand people are going to take views and want to time. But at least have a ####### reason for why you think that. Otherwise, you're just flipping a coin with very long odds. If you just want to guess go to a casino and play craps.
Are we comparing a 403b money market investment with a company match to a casino trip now?
I think that analogy works fine here. :shrug:
Price for failure is lower, though. He may "lose", but it certainly isn't a devastating decision.

When 2008 rolled around I got nervous and moved about 30% of my funds into cash. I was right, but even if I wasn't I don't regret the bet. I'd think he'd be better to hedge rather than cash out, but it isn't like he's putting all of it into GoPro.

 
I don't think timing the market is ever the right play. I've done it before, it worked. I had a thesis and it played out. I was also a trader at the time in the money markets, so I had a good feel for what was going on in the economy.

I understand people are going to take views and want to time. But at least have a ####### reason for why you think that. Otherwise, you're just flipping a coin with very long odds. If you just want to guess go to a casino and play craps.
Are we comparing a 403b money market investment with a company match to a casino trip now?
I think that analogy works fine here. :shrug:
Wouldnt a better analogy be something like putting untaxed dollars plus a company match under my mattress?A casino analogy for this is just you trying to sound witty or "burn" me or whatever.

 
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I don't think timing the market is ever the right play. I've done it before, it worked. I had a thesis and it played out. I was also a trader at the time in the money markets, so I had a good feel for what was going on in the economy.

I understand people are going to take views and want to time. But at least have a ####### reason for why you think that. Otherwise, you're just flipping a coin with very long odds. If you just want to guess go to a casino and play craps.
Are we comparing a 403b money market investment with a company match to a casino trip now?
I think that analogy works fine here. :shrug:
Price for failure is lower, though. He may "lose", but it certainly isn't a devastating decision.

When 2008 rolled around I got nervous and moved about 30% of my funds into cash. I was right, but even if I wasn't I don't regret the bet. I'd think he'd be better to hedge rather than cash out, but it isn't like he's putting all of it into GoPro.
This (and similar reports) opened my eyes:

http://www.businessinsider.com/cost-of-missing-10-best-days-in-sp-500-2014-3

Almost 50% less just for missing the ten best days over a 20 year period.

 
Where is the math for the ten worst days?

edit............not trying to be a jerk there, am actually curious if it's been done like the ten best day has been done.

 
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I think it's easier to pull out when it's high than pull the trigger on getting back in when it's down. I think we all know people that pulled out around 2008 but still haven't got back in.

 
I think it's easier to pull out when it's high than pull the trigger on getting back in when it's down. I think we all know people that pulled out around 2008 but still haven't got back in.
Back in 2008 I had been working for maybe 4 years at that point, really not paying any attention to anything other than contributing enough to get the company match.

Not sure if being ingnorant to all the market turmoil was good or bad for me. Probably bad.

Sorta wish I knew more financially literate people at that time in my life to force me to put more than 6% into my 403b. I would probably have triple what I have now had I started at 15% from day 1.

Though I do recall someone I work with at the time who was like 60 years old who had a son in finance and made her put all her money into money market accounts. I was talking to one of my current coworkers about it who was good friends with her, and she saved hundreds of thousands of dollars, so I'm told. Crazy.

 
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Speaking of market timing, I am feeling GLD is a buy real soon. It's just a matter of time before rates rise and inflation heats up. And gold is relatively low right now. I'd rather move into gold instead of a money market like the previous poster. Talk me off the ledge.

 
I think it's easier to pull out when it's high than pull the trigger on getting back in when it's down. I think we all know people that pulled out around 2008 but still haven't got back in.
Back in 2008 I had been working for maybe 4 years at that point, really not paying any attention to anything other than contributing enough to get the company match.

Not sure if being ingnorant to all the market turmoil was good or bad for me. Probably bad.

Sorta wish I knew more financially literate people at that time in my life to force me to put more than 6% into my 403b. I would probably have triple what I have now had I started at 15% from day 1.

Though I do recall someone I work with at the time who was like 60 years old who had a son in finance and made her put all her money into money market accounts. I was talking to one of my current coworkers about it who was good friends with her, and she saved hundreds of thousands of dollars, so I'm told. Crazy.
not sure I understand the bolded. depending on when she re-entered the market, she probably lost hundreds of thousands as well. had she left it alone, she would probably be "even Steven" (Seinfeld is relevant 10 years later)

 
not sure I understand the bolded. depending on when she re-entered the market, she probably lost hundreds of thousands as well. had she left it alone, she would probably be "even Steven" (Seinfeld is relevant 10 years later)
She did not leave it alone, re-invested in stocks, and retired a lot earlier than she would have. The market took a big dump, she got back in. As I said, she saved herself hundreds of thousands of dollars. As in, she currently has hundreds of thousands of dollars more right now than she would have otherwise.

It would be an example of EXCELLENT market timing, or incredible luck, however you want to look at it.

 
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not sure I understand the bolded. depending on when she re-entered the market, she probably lost hundreds of thousands as well. had she left it alone, she would probably be "even Steven" (Seinfeld is relevant 10 years later)
She did not leave it alone, re-invested in stocks, and retired a lot earlier than she would have. The market took a big dump, she got back in. As I said, she saved herself hundreds of thousands of dollars. As in, she currently has hundreds of thousands of dollars more right now than she would have otherwise.
OK, got it. Had she left it alone, where would she be today? At a loss, or even?

 
not sure I understand the bolded. depending on when she re-entered the market, she probably lost hundreds of thousands as well. had she left it alone, she would probably be "even Steven" (Seinfeld is relevant 10 years later)
She did not leave it alone, re-invested in stocks, and retired a lot earlier than she would have. The market took a big dump, she got back in. As I said, she saved herself hundreds of thousands of dollars. As in, she currently has hundreds of thousands of dollars more right now than she would have otherwise.
OK, got it. Had she left it alone, where would she be today? At a loss, or even?
I just said. HUndreds of thousands of dollars less than she currently has.

 
not sure I understand the bolded. depending on when she re-entered the market, she probably lost hundreds of thousands as well. had she left it alone, she would probably be "even Steven" (Seinfeld is relevant 10 years later)
She did not leave it alone, re-invested in stocks, and retired a lot earlier than she would have. The market took a big dump, she got back in. As I said, she saved herself hundreds of thousands of dollars. As in, she currently has hundreds of thousands of dollars more right now than she would have otherwise.
OK, got it. Had she left it alone, where would she be today? At a loss, or even?
I just said. HUndreds of thousands of dollars less than she currently has.
How do you come to that conclusion? The market has bounced back. At a minimum she would be right where she was before the downswing.

 
not sure I understand the bolded. depending on when she re-entered the market, she probably lost hundreds of thousands as well. had she left it alone, she would probably be "even Steven" (Seinfeld is relevant 10 years later)
She did not leave it alone, re-invested in stocks, and retired a lot earlier than she would have. The market took a big dump, she got back in. As I said, she saved herself hundreds of thousands of dollars. As in, she currently has hundreds of thousands of dollars more right now than she would have otherwise.
OK, got it. Had she left it alone, where would she be today? At a loss, or even?
I just said. HUndreds of thousands of dollars less than she currently has.
How do you come to that conclusion? The market has bounced back. At a minimum she would be right where she was before the downswing.
I am not sure how you aren't getting this. In either late 2007 or early 2008 she switched her entire portfolio into the most secure/stable investments possible in our 403b. When the market took a a huge crap, she re-invested that money into other funds that have since increased quite a bit since 2009.

Hence, she saved money swapping her money. Then re-invested all of that back into the upswing. So, she had a LOT of extra money at the beginning of that upswing that she otherwise would not have had.

Please tell me you understand this now.

 
So she had stocks/funds/investment vehicle that had already gone down in value, sold it, and moved it into a secure investment. Later she re-invested it, and is now worth 100,000's of thousands more?
She swapped it BEFORE it went down in value.

Christ people

 
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God this conversation got weird. I mentioned someone who got lucky based off a tip from her financial expert son, and it turns into people not being able to comprehend English, then when they finally get it, they say she got lucky.............though I already said she got very lucky.

Real swell.

Carry on. I am going to continue to look into what I am going to invest with the other portion of my retirement that is also linked to the fidelity investments.

 
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I get what she did. She timed the market. Whether it was luck or not is irrelevant to my point. She didn't prevent losing money. She never had the money to lose. What she did was change her investment strategy that maximized her gains.

By contrast, my wife had been contributing to her company match 401k for 15 years. I never paid much attention to it up until the 2008 down turn. At which time, I noticed she had everything in the government conservative bonds. She lost very little money, but could have made much more. I reallocated her investment and future contributions. Because of the markets recovery, her account has nearly doubled. I don't see this as saving money. Just making a return on our investment.

Sadly, had she had the proper diversification for 15 years, she would have been even better off. Sure things would have dipped a little in 2008, but since we weren't going to sell, it would have rebounded today.

 
I get what she did. She timed the market. Whether it was luck or not is irrelevant to my point. She didn't prevent losing money. She never had the money to lose. What she did was change her investment strategy that maximized her gains.
I have no idea why you keep saying she never had the money to lose. She had a lot of money in her portfolio, in investments that WOULD have lost a lot of value had she kept it there. She didn't keep it there.

What is with this weird semantics talk you have going on here about "she never had the money to lose". Makes no sense why you are doing that.

 

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