Peterson vs Lynch (1 Viewer)

[Rounders]

It appears that according to the latest dynasty rankings that Peterson has all but locked up the #1 FF Rookie, but I wanted to delve into this situation a little more to see if Lynch can compare to Peterson.

I know that a lot will change once the NFL draft has finished and we know what teams each player is going to, but I wanted to get some discussion about these two regarding their abilities.

So in an attempt to breakdown these two runners, let's get some discussion about each players measureables, positives, and negatives. I'll start things off

A.Peterson, RB, Oklahoma

Ht: 6'2

Wt: 220

40T: 4.4 (est)

Positives: Workhorse back, explosive speed, good power, great vision, and a good nose for the endzone.

Negatives: Doesn't catch the ball well (season high is 10 receptions), durability issues, not a good pass blocker, above average college workload (as in touches 771 in 3 years)

M.Lynch, RB, California

Ht: 5'10

Wt: 220

40T: 4.45 (est)

Positives: Above average power, good speed (not a burner, but more than enough), very elusive and shifty, great vision and cutback ability, solid receving threat out of backfield (although still developing)

Negatives: Blocking is a question, average size for his running style (durability?)

Summary: In my attempt to determine the difference between the 2 RBs, it really comes down to natural ability (Peterson) versus potential (Lynch). I believe that Peterson is a pure runner with the knack for the position, while I beleive that Lynch has great upside and potential to be a big thing in the NFL. I think that determining between the two will come down to the teams that they are selected by and the setup of your league.

What say you?

 

[EBF]

It's very difficult to look into the crystal ball and predict what will happen with these two. I used to be a big time believer that talent trumps system. I still think that this is mostly true for WRs, but there's simply no denying the importance of supporting cast and offensive philosophy on a RB's success or failure. I think there are dozens of backs in the NFL who could put up strong numbers on the Chiefs or Colts. Likewise, I don't think there are many backs who could've had a great FF season on the Browns or Lions last season.

Until we see where these two rookie backs go in the draft, it is almost impossible to even guess which player will have the better career. Nevertheless, we can compare their talent.

Peterson is definitely faster. He's a better home run threat and he seems to have a better burst of speed. When you watch him, he just looks a little more special than Lynch does. On the downside, his size is an issue. As much as announcers and scouts like to talk about size, I firmly believe that height is a negative for a RB. Peterson is about three or four inches taller than the ideal RB and he's not as thick as other big backs like Steven Jackson and Larry Johnson. He's capable of making a quick stutter step to gain extra yards, but he doesn't have the elite lateral agility or hip swerve of a stockier back like LaDainian Tomlinson. He runs a little high and takes a lot of hits. I don't think he's going to have a long career if he keeps running like he does right now.

Can he still be a successful NFL back? Sure. Steven Jackson and Larry Johnson are bigger backs who have had great success lately. Peterson isn't quite as thick as either of these guys, but he's just as good as they were entering the league. He's probably better. He runs very hard and always keeps his feet moving. I ultimately have a tough time seeing him bust unless he gets hurt and/or winds up on an awful team. Unfortunately, those are two very real possibilities.

Lynch is a different beast. He has a much more ideal build in the sense that he's thicker and is built lower to the ground. He has better lateral agility and is shiftier behind his blocks. Like Peterson, he's a strong back. He can deliver the punishment and can also stay on his feet after some big hits. He's a better receiver than Peterson and was actually a more productive player. It's been more than two years since he posted a single game of less than 4.0 YPC, which is an amazing accomplishment. On the downside, his burst isn't as good as Peterson's. He doesn't quite explode through the holes like AP (although he's still good in this category) and he doesn't have the same kind of home run speed. He won't run away from defenses in the NFL.

Where we stand right now, I think both guys are goood prospects. Lynch reminds me of Kevin Jones, Michael Pittman, Edgerrin James, Thomas Jones, and Steven Jackson in various ways. Those guys have all been pretty successful and I'll be surprised if Lynch ends up being anything less than a quality starter at the next level. In the right system, he has a chance to be a star and could actually outproduce Peterson.

Peterson actually strikes me as more of a boom or bust pick than Lynch. He has flashier talent and would seem like a better bet to become a superstar. However, his atypical build, his one dimensional skill set (he's not known as a great receiver and may never develop that skill), and his history of injuries would seem to make him a greater bust risk. It's unlikely that he'll be a bust due to talent, but if he ends up on a bad team and has nagging injuries then he could wind up being a relative disappointment.

 

[Arsenal of Doom]

Here's how I'd quickly handicap them head to head:

Speed - Peterson

Qucikness/Burst - Peterson

Power - Peterson

Vision - Peterson

Yards after contact - Peterson

Elusiveness/Lateral Speed - Lynch

Hands - Lynch

Blocking - Push

Durability - Push

5-2-2 in favor of Peterson in these attributes. I've seen more of Peterson (12 or 13 games, compared to 2 or 3) so keep that in mind. I don't think most would argue these observations, however. I could only see jumping Lynch over AD if he lands in an absolutely ideal situation and Peterson goes somewhere with question marks. I don't believe in "can't miss" prospects, but I think Peterson is as close as it gets to that.

 

[EBF]

Here's how I'd quickly handicap them head to head:Speed - PetersonQucikness/Burst - PetersonPower - PetersonVision - PetersonYards after contact - PetersonElusiveness/Lateral Speed - LynchHands - LynchBlocking - PushDurability - Push5-2-2 in favor of Peterson in these attributes. I've seen more of Peterson (12 or 13 games, compared to 2 or 3) so keep that in mind. I don't think most would argue these observations, however. I could only see jumping Lynch over AD if he lands in an absolutely ideal situation and Peterson goes somewhere with question marks. I don't believe in "can't miss" prospects, but I think Peterson is as close as it gets to that.

The ones I might argue are power and yards after contact. Lynch reminds me of Kevin Jones in a few ways. Both guys arrived on the college scene as much-heralded true freshmen who made an immediate impact. They were both a little undersized as freshman and actually looked more like quickness/change of pace guys. They both evolved throughout their college years. The junior year KJ was much thicker, stronger, and a bit slower than the freshman version. Likewise, Lynch looks like he's gained weight and is now much more powerful and sturdy than he was as a freshman. When push comes to shove, Lynch might actually be a stronger runner than Peterson. It's certainly not a lopsided advantag either way.

 

[Rovers]

I give Peterson the clear edge, but it really depends on where they land in the end. I have the #1 pick in one of my 16 team dynasty IDP leagues, so I am obviously very interested in this topic. Nice info in this thread already.

Let's crystal ball it a bit here. Let's say Houston takes Peterson. Then, if the Bills pass on Lynch (and I'm not sure they will) he goes to the Packers. Peterson I would think should do pretty well as a Texan, but if Lynch goes to a cold weather team like the Bills or Pack, especially if Favre retires, he could be a real workhorse type of RB. In either scenario, both Peterson and Lynch land in places with serious QB questions and offensive lines that haven't as of yet proven to be very good at run blocking.

Houston and Buffalo have at least one WR to keep the safeties deep, but not GB. If Lynch goes to GB, it's Peterson, no doubt in my mind. But, if Lynch lands with the Bills..... a cold weather ball control run first team, he might be the better option.

 

[mozzy84]

I don't think there would even be a debate had Peterson played all year.

 

[jurb26]

Houston and Buffalo have at least one WR to keep the safeties deep, but not GB. If Lynch goes to GB, it's Peterson, no doubt in my mind. But, if Lynch lands with the Bills..... a cold weather ball control run first team, he might be the better option.

Driver and Jennings?

 

[Arsenal of Doom]

The ones I might argue are power and yards after contact. Lynch reminds me of Kevin Jones in a few ways. Both guys arrived on the college scene as much-heralded true freshmen who made an immediate impact. They were both a little undersized as freshman and actually looked more like quickness/change of pace guys. They both evolved throughout their college years. The junior year KJ was much thicker, stronger, and a bit slower than the freshman version. Likewise, Lynch looks like he's gained weight and is now much more powerful and sturdy than he was as a freshman. When push comes to shove, Lynch might actually be a stronger runner than Peterson. It's certainly not a lopsided advantag either way.

I agree that most of these wouldn't be a landslide one way or the other. Even receiving skills, where ADs low totals are more a function of the offensive system. Allen Patrick played in 3 more games, had nearly as many rushing attempts as AD, and didn't have a single reception this year. Peterson has a devestating stiff arm, which helps his YAC ability. I've also seen him absolutley plow through defensive backs, and he gets to the second level as fast as anyone I have ever seen. I don't expect him to ever play much above 225, and at his height he definitely needs to work on his body lean. One thing about Peterson though, he wants to be great. For as physically gifted as he is, he's never let his talent rest and has pushed himself to improve. I fully expect him to carry that attitude to the next level.

 

[Rovers]

Houston and Buffalo have at least one WR to keep the safeties deep, but not GB. If Lynch goes to GB, it's Peterson, no doubt in my mind. But, if Lynch lands with the Bills..... a cold weather ball control run first team, he might be the better option.

Driver and Jennings?

Compared to Johnson and Evans? Yeah. I don't see either Driver or Jennings as speed demon deep threats that make the safeties stay back.

 

[Jous]

I don't really have high hopes for either of them. I believe Lynch will be average at best, and Peterson will be great, but not for long because nagging injuries will drive down his production year after year.

 

[LHUCKS]

Lynch has more upside because of his versatility and vision...Peterson is more of a sure bet because of his ability to run downhill.

 

[rabidfireweasel]

I really like them both. Peterson was stunninig as a true freshman. He was very productive as a sophomore-just not stunnin-, despite being injured. Too me, this is very important. There are many NFL backs (Domanick Davis/Williams, Lee Suggs, etc.) who are very effective when 100% but aren't when they are nicked. That is a problem, because everyone is nicked up come week 10. Like many, I think Peterson will have a superfast demise once it happens (a la Eddie George or Earl Campbell) so you will have to prepare to replace him even when he looks great. I do think he is very likely to look great.

Lynch is going to be one of those sneaky FF players like Barber in the early 2000's or Westbrook who is going to compile numbers. He can catch, get yards after the catch and has be a willing blocker in the games I have seen. I think he gets 3rd down duty faster than Peterson, and 3 downs really have a significant impact on FF production. He will also likely be the back in the hurry up at the end of halves/games and that is also a boost to FF production. To me, he is a tough strong runner- he doesn't remind me of anyone specific, but he has a little Curtis Martin/ mini Steven Jackson in his game.

 

[jurb26]

Durability - Push

 

[LHUCKS]

I really like them both. Peterson was stunninig as a true freshman. He was very productive as a sophomore-just not stunnin-, despite being injured. Too me, this is very important. There are many NFL backs (Domanick Davis/Williams, Lee Suggs, etc.) who are very effective when 100% but aren't when they are nicked. That is a problem, because everyone is nicked up come week 10. Like many, I think Peterson will have a superfast demise once it happens (a la Eddie George or Earl Campbell) so you will have to prepare to replace him even when he looks great. I do think he is very likely to look great.Lynch is going to be one of those sneaky FF players like Barber in the early 2000's or Westbrook who is going to compile numbers. He can catch, get yards after the catch and has be a willing blocker in the games I have seen. I think he gets 3rd down duty faster than Peterson, and 3 downs really have a significant impact on FF production. He will also likely be the back in the hurry up at the end of halves/games and that is also a boost to FF production. To me, he is a tough strong runner- he doesn't remind me of anyone specific, but he has a little Curtis Martin/ mini Steven Jackson in his game.

Agree on almost all accounts.

 

[Bob_Magaw]

wrote this on AD in the 2007 rookie RBs thread & don't want to reinvent the wheel...

i inexplicably left out vision & instincts in breakdown below... i think peterson's are very good, though maybe not as good as lynch... i still have to do a write-up on him...

for the record, i probably fall into the group that finds there may not be a huge difference between them, & it is possible a case could be made that lynch might have better pro career (EBF has done a good job conveying some of these reasons, & i agree with many of them)... if lynch were to go to DEN, for instance, & AD to CLE, i don't find the gap so significant (if in fact there is one at all), that i wouldn't jump on lynch if he goes to clearly superior destination... & peterson's seemingly greater speed & explosiveness could be rendered moot if his height, upright style & (so far) penchant for getting injured causes him to have a shorter career, & be on the shelf a lot while he is playing...

at my present stage of evaluation (i have been known to change my mind, like chaos commish )... all things being equal, i'm leaning towards peterson, & am not overly concerned about injury history... while i'm enthralled by ADs explosiveness & big time top end speed, lynch's probably superior elusiveness & more classic RB build/physique is a great compensating factor (& he looks like he could be a more natural pass catcher, i think had more experience in that area in college, & that trait holds up , lynch could end up being the more complete & well rounded RB), & he appears to be similar in strength & tackle breaking ability...

i traded for the 1.02 in one dynasty league, & if i don't get peterson, i think lynch will be a really nice consolation prize, & it won't stun me if he has the more distinguished career at the next level... if he does go to a place like DEN, i fully expect for AD to be left for me there (part of attraction of 1.2 spot... i should get a good/great RB no matter what)...

one other addendum... scouts talk a lot about intangibles... the inherent difficulty in getting a handle on "invisible" traits" that aren't tangible (like 40 times, vertical jump, shuttle & cone drills) is one of the primary reasons the draft is an inexact science (or better, art)... speaking to this, i heard that peterson's desire to help his team in any way he could was so great, that he volunteered to be a gunner on the kicking teams... i'm pretty sure they didn't take him up on it, & didn't run the risk of injury to their star player (though he was maybe fastest & most athletic player on his team)... but that kind of desire & dedication speaks volumes about how serious he is about football... i like to hear anecdotes like that when factoring intangibles as best i can...

"i've been watching some of the available highlights of peterson & lynch lately, to try & better distinguish them, & break down their relative strengths & weaknesses...

peterson seems faster & more explosive... specifically, once he is in the open field, his linear, straight ahead, top end speed is really impressive... he runs away from smaller DBs, even when they have the angle on him... fantastic combo of size/power/speed... impressive contact balance... breaks a lot of tackles... can be a physical, punishing runner... though upright running style, can & will lower his shoulder, is capable of running with leverage in close quarters & in traffic... overpowers smaller defenders... nasty, hardcore stiff arm (should quickly be one of the league's best in this dept)... not as shifty or elusive as lynch imo (that attribute of lynch is one of most impressive to me), doesn't have as outstanding lateral quickness, feet & elusiveness... that said, he isn't a slouch in these areas, & can make defenders miss... not sure how well he blocks or catches... probably wouldn't be many highlights for system/scheme reasons at oklahoma (wasn't asked to catch much)... enticing, in that he seems to have the physical traits of a true feature RB... if he can stay healthy (bit of a question currently, & will continue to be until he answers durability concerns by stringing together some healthy seasons), has the look of a 350+ carry RB that will also get the bulk of short yardage & goal line work... there are increasingly few of those kinds of RBs... aforementioned upright running style, which could expose him to bigger hits (& more of them), has raised alarms that he could have a short career, but i didn't find him to run christian okoye-upright... much has been made of the missed games, but if you break your collarbone you are going to miss games... same with ankle sprain previous season, it has happened to the best of them, so i don't think the injury prone factor will weigh heavily in my decision... if i think his constellation of traits & overall skill set is superior to lynch, that will probably guide & drive my decision to take one over the other, more than durability & injury questions... he is not skinny, but longer than lynch at 3" taller & about same weight (6'2" 217)... some scouts think he will be bigger in a few years when he physically matures... if so, without losing much speed or explosiveness, he could emerge as a monster, a dominant RB... lets say he got to 225... who does he remind the board of, what would be a suitable comp player to fit his present profile while factoring in his growth potential? a faster, stronger fred taylor? hopefully he doesn't revisit the fragile freddie connotations... steven jackson was mentioned... both supposedly ran 10.6 as preps... based on what i have seen more recently, AD is way faster in the open field, and a niftier runner, but arguably not as strong (yet!)... he looks like a mortal lock to run a 4.4, & it wouldn't shock me if he runs a 4.3 at combine (as junior he can't be scouted at senior bowl... like lynch)... i think he was reportedly fastest player on oklahoma team & may already have clocked a blistering sub-4.4... i'm interested to see how he does in explosiveness measurables like vertical & broad jumps... also his bench press reps... could be a future serial pro bowler if he can stay in one piece...

lynch to follow..."

 

[Arsenal of Doom]

Durability - Push

Taking the fluke collarbone injury out of the equation, they've both essentially had one season hampered by ankle issues.

 

[PahtyTom]

AP but they both scare me injury wise. I think the kid Ray Rice out of Rutgers would be a solid pick if he was coming out this year. Reminds me of a Curtis Martin type.

 

[toxicbees]

I know most people will say Peterson is better, and he may be. But Lynch is just as good, and may translate to the NFL better. He's a shifty back, and just one of those guys that seems slippery. He's really hard to take down. He has short quick legs sort of like a Priest Holmes. He's an inside downhill runner. For those that think he's slow. He's got 4.4 speed and might even time a 4.3 at his pro day.

I know most people are wary of a back coming from Cal, especially after the JJ Arrington fiasco. But I can honestly say that Lynch is a lot better than JJ. When they played together a few years ago Lynch was the guy everyone was talking about not JJ.

He's straight out of the Oakland ghetto too, but he's not a gangstar. More of a warrior with street credentials.

 

[jurb26]

Durability - Push

Taking the fluke collarbone injury out of the equation, they've both essentially had one season hampered by ankle issues.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but Peterson has never finished a full college football season.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

Durability - Push

Taking the fluke collarbone injury out of the equation, they've both essentially had one season hampered by ankle issues.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but Peterson has never finished a full college football season.

That is indeed true, but it's worthwhile to note that while Lynch was splitting time every year ADP was getting carries like none have seen before. ADP averaged more carries per game even as a 19 year old true freshman than even the likes of record setting Larry Johnson did this year. Had Peterson played only his true freshman year he would have received 70% of the amount of carries Lynch had his entire college career.

 

[Bob_Magaw]

Durability - Push

Taking the fluke collarbone injury out of the equation, they've both essentially had one season hampered by ankle issues.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but Peterson has never finished a full college football season.

didn't he set ncaa record for rushing yards for a freshman? i'm not sure, but i don't think he could have missed too many games?the injury prone issue is a tricky one... like with the high ankle sprain... if you have ever had one, they are worse than a break & can take 4-6 weeks or more to heal... repeated ankle sprains are a concern as the ligaments & tendons can lose their elasticity, and make it easier to incur future sprains, but i don't think that is the case with AD...while he is criticized for his upright style, the collarbone was a fluke, he wasn't even hit on the play... i think sometimes if you hit it the wrong way, its going to break... i haven't heard any credible reports (ie - from a medical professional), to suggest that he is at risk for more future collarbone breaks...

 

[Gandalf]

i think sometimes if you hit it the wrong way, its going to break

injury prone is sometimes overrated in NFL players. After all, I think it only takes 12 lbs of pressure delivered to the knee at a right angle to rupture the ACL in most people. That basically means if an athlete is hit the wrong way at the wrong time serious injuries can occur. Plus in the NFL every player is living play to play. In fact, I'm not going to believe that athletes or anyone else are injury prone until I see some real data supporting it. In theory people may have anatomical differences that leave them weaker but if this is true, someone likely would have conducted a study on it. I'll try to look into it.Regarding Lynch or AD, I think both will be very good players. I think it's real close in terms of talent, but people's perception and hence market value of AD is higher than Lynch. That said, I own Lynch on my college roster and don't know if I would give him straight up with the owner who has AD. It really depends where they wind up. Either way though, I don't think you can go wrong.

 

[-OZ-]

didn't he set ncaa record for rushing yards for a freshman? i'm not sure, but i don't think he could have missed too many games?

the injury prone issue is a tricky one... like with the high ankle sprain... if you have ever had one, they are worse than a break & can take 4-6 weeks or more to heal... repeated ankle sprains are a concern as the ligaments & tendons can lose their elasticity, and make it easier to incur future sprains, but i don't think that is the case with AD...

while he is criticized for his upright style, the collarbone was a fluke, he wasn't even hit on the play... i think sometimes if you hit it the wrong way, its going to break... i haven't heard any credible reports (ie - from a medical professional), to suggest that he is at risk for more future collarbone breaks...

In 2004, Peterson played in all 13 games, only started 8.

2004: Second in the Heisman balloting, best finish ever by a freshman ... No. 3 in voting for the Maxwell Award (player of the year) ... consensus All-American while playing against six ranked foes ... first OU freshman to be named All-America ... first freshman since Dre Bly in 1996 to be named AP All-American ... first freshman Doak Walker Award finalist ... totaled a nation-leading and NCAA freshman record 339 rushing attempts (third highest in OU history) ... No. 3 nationally with 1,925 rushing yards ... yards after contact were 1,365, 71% of his net ... broke OU school season rushing record set in 1978 by Billy Sims (1,896) and NCAA freshman record set in 1996 by Wisconsin’s Ron Dayne (1,863) ... also set NCAA frosh marks for consecutive 100-yard rushing games (9) and total 100-yard rushing games (11) ... His 11, 100-yard games ranked second at OU (Quentin Griffin had 12 in 2002) ... tied NCAA freshman record for reaching 1,000 yards in the fewest games (7) with Emmitt Smith (Florida, 1987) and Marshall Faulk (San Diego State, 1991) ... Greg Pruitt, who reached 1,000 yards in six games of the 1971 season, is the only OU back to reach the plateau faster than Peterson ... rushed for 100 yards in 11 of 13 games ... lone exceptions were game 10 when he played sparingly in a win over Nebraska (15-58) due to injury and the Orange Bowl (25-82) ... No. 6 nationally in rushing yards (148.1 per game) ... set OU freshman all-purpose record with 1,937 yards, the third-highest figure in school history ... No. 15 nationally with 149.0 all-purpose yards/game ... had 44 rushes of 10 or more yards and eight of 35 yards or longer ... second OU frosh to rush for 100 yards in debut game, and the first RB to do so.

So I just read the last part. Anyone know who the first OU frosh to run for 100 yards in his debut game would be?And it isn't a RB?

 

[LHUCKS]

To play devil's advocate, let's not forget that Frank Gore had an injury plagued college career...just saying.

 

[Christo]

Durability - Push

Taking the fluke collarbone injury out of the equation, they've both essentially had one season hampered by ankle issues.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but Peterson has never finished a full college football season.

2004:9/4 Bowling Green W 40-24 16 100 6.3 35 1 0 0 0.0 0 0 0 0

9/11 Houston W 63-13 25 117 4.7 38 2 1 -1 -1.0 -1 0 0 0

9/18 Oregon W 31-7 24 183 7.6 40 2 0 0 0.0 0 0 0 0

10/2 Texas Tech W 28-13 22 146 6.6 61 1 0 0 0.0 0 0 0 0

10/9 Texas W 12-0 32 225 7.0 44 0 0 0 0.0 0 0 0 0

10/16 @Kansas State W 31-21 36 130 3.6 15 0 1 6 6.0 6 0 0 0

10/23 Kansas W 41-10 22 122 5.5 21 1 0 0 0.0 0 0 0 0

10/30 @Oklahoma State W 38-35 33 249 7.5 80 1 1 1 1.0 1 0 0 0

11/6 @Texas A&M W 42-35 29 101 3.5 15 1 0 0 0.0 0 0 0 0

11/13 Nebraska W 30-3 15 58 3.9 28 0 0 0 0.0 0 0 0 0

11/20 @Baylor W 35-0 32 240 7.5 49 3 0 0 0.0 0 0 0 0

12/4 Colorado W 42-3 28 172 6.1 32 3 0 0 0.0 0 0 0 0

2004 Postseason Game Log

-- RUSHING -- -- RECEIVING -- -- FUMBLES --

BOWL OPP RESULT ATT YDS AVG LNG TD REC YDS AVG LNG TD FUM LST

Orange Bowl USC L 55-19 25 82 3.3 9 0 2 6 3.0 5 0 0 0

 

[The Man Who Met Andy Griffith]

To play devil's advocate, let's not forget that Frank Gore had an injury plagued college career...just saying.

And he's managed to stay healthy for 1 out of 1 years as a starter.

 

[Bob_Magaw]

To play devil's advocate, let's not forget that Frank Gore had an injury plagued college career...just saying.

same with curtis martin, i think deuce mccalister, cadillac & ronnie brown missed some time, deangelo williams... no doubt many others...maroney has missed some time this year... is he now injury prone... steven jackson missed some time with boo boos in his first few years, which may have caused some to avoid him...

 

[Arsenal of Doom]

So I just read the last part. Anyone know who the first OU frosh to run for 100 yards in his debut game would be?And it isn't a RB?

Probably Jamelle Holieway he was a 4 year starter in the mid-80s and is the leading QB rusher in OU history.

 

[Bob_Magaw]

i think sometimes if you hit it the wrong way, its going to break

injury prone is sometimes overrated in NFL players. After all, I think it only takes 12 lbs of pressure delivered to the knee at a right angle to rupture the ACL in most people. That basically means if an athlete is hit the wrong way at the wrong time serious injuries can occur. Plus in the NFL every player is living play to play. In fact, I'm not going to believe that athletes or anyone else are injury prone until I see some real data supporting it. In theory people may have anatomical differences that leave them weaker but if this is true, someone likely would have conducted a study on it. I'll try to look into it.Regarding Lynch or AD, I think both will be very good players. I think it's real close in terms of talent, but people's perception and hence market value of AD is higher than Lynch. That said, I own Lynch on my college roster and don't know if I would give him straight up with the owner who has AD. It really depends where they wind up. Either way though, I don't think you can go wrong.

if we were to flip it around, another way to look at it is not to call players with a few injuries thereby prone to injury... but to call the players like LT that rarely suffer ankle sprains or worse (i think he has actually had that or groin injury that impacted on him 1-2 seasons, but obviously not very much or for long) are probably freaks & the exception... it should be the norm to get an occasional sprained ankle or bruised rib...it is possible that players have genetic/anatomical differences... maybe having denser bones would lead to fewer breaks, but like you i know of know studies to suggest this... it wouldn't be a huge shock if there was some variability among athletes here... maybe winnowing out takes place earlier, & players with weak bones are already selected out almost in evolutionary adaptation sense by high school & college? i dunno ...an interesting sub-chapter is playing style... torry holt isn't often injured, but he runs out of bounds a lot, and will dive down if he is in the middle of the field, to avoid the catastrophic kill shot... perhaps this is coaching from WR coach henry ellard, as bruce does it, too (latter is nasty & will take out DBs legs)... personally i always admired walter payton more than franco harris for always fighting for additional yardage, but i don't think this stylistic issue will be an impediment to holt reaching HoF, & frankly if it extends his career & ability to play at high level, it will probably prove to enhance & facilitate his chances...looking at AD & lynch i sometimes cringe because they are so strong & determined runners, they sometimes drag runners for extra yardage... i think RBs that go down easier would logically be less likely to get injured... peterson & lynch's strength, contact balance & determination might be almost too much for their own good, if they end up often at next level dragging players where it can give time for more defenders to pile on them, land at akward angles, etc? if that happens, perhaps they can adapt & adjust their styles...another factor is things like vision & awareness... marcus allen rarely took big shots, but he had such phenomenal peripheral vision that he could see it coming beforehand, and had elite athleticism & body control to twist one way or the other so it became a glancing blow (i've used the wayne gretzky comparison from hockey before in this context)...LT has such great vision, instincts & patience that it helps him to get through the hole, & then the burst & explosiveness to quickly get to the second & third level, where he isn't getting hit by as many people (or as big), which perhaps helps... he definitely has the elusiveness & sense to preferably avoid defenders when possible, choosing to run them over when there is no other option presented...* because of the collar bone injury, peterson has only absorbed the punishment of being a feature RB for a little more than two years, so it could somewhat counter-intuitively be a positive and EXTEND his career... would you rather have a RB that has absorbed a beating for four seasons (lynch is a junior, but in comparison to some past elite prospects) or two?** i was reading an article by john mclain of houston chronicle, and he talked about how three local scouts he talked with said that he could grade out as one of the all time best RB prospects in texas state history (he went to oklahoma but was from texas)... here is the excerpt (lot of good RBs came from texas)..."Each scout has told me that if Peterson continues to impress them through the evaluation process the way he has so far, he'll be graded high enough to rank with outstanding prospects like Earl Campbell, Eric Dickerson, Billy Sims, Ricky Williams and LaDainian Tomlinson — each of whom grew up in Texas or played at a Texas school."

 

[Bob_Magaw]

So I just read the last part. Anyone know who the first OU frosh to run for 100 yards in his debut game would be?And it isn't a RB?

Probably Jamelle Holieway he was a 4 year starter in the mid-80s and is the leading QB rusher in OU history.

i was thinking it was him (couldn't remember name) or the QB that immediately followed him... was it charles thompson, who got busted for cocaine distribution after an extremely promising start?hollieway was the reason troy aikman transferred from oklahoma to ucla... he was so good, barry switzer assured him that he would change from wishbone to a more pro-style passing attack, then he got injured, hollieway was inserted & was an instant star & never looked back... aikman saw the handwriting on the wall & realized he would not regain his starting job...

 

[Jene Bramel]

Durability - Push

Taking the fluke collarbone injury out of the equation, they've both essentially had one season hampered by ankle issues.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but Peterson has never finished a full college football season.

didn't he set ncaa record for rushing yards for a freshman? i'm not sure, but i don't think he could have missed too many games?the injury prone issue is a tricky one... like with the high ankle sprain... if you have ever had one, they are worse than a break & can take 4-6 weeks or more to heal... repeated ankle sprains are a concern as the ligaments & tendons can lose their elasticity, and make it easier to incur future sprains, but i don't think that is the case with AD...while he is criticized for his upright style, the collarbone was a fluke, he wasn't even hit on the play... i think sometimes if you hit it the wrong way, its going to break... i haven't heard any credible reports (ie - from a medical professional), to suggest that he is at risk for more future collarbone breaks...

I don't see any reason to be concerned about the collarbone injury long term. It sounded like a very typical fracture and unlikely to be another Charles Rogers type situation.In addition to the ankle issues, Peterson also struggled with multiple "minor" shoulder dislocations early in his college career which eventually necessitated a tightening procedure in 2004 (I believe). I haven't found any indication that he's been hindered with the shoulder injury since -- the collarbone is unrelated -- but it's worth bringing up since it's not been mentioned yet.

 

[trader jake]

Will Lynch be a goal-line guy in the NFL?

 

[EBF]

Will Lynch be a goal-line guy in the NFL?

I don't see why not.

 

[Bob_Magaw]

at nearly 220, he is bigger than emmit smith when he was a rookie, with similar squat, compact build with low center of gravity (lynch is listed 5'11", i think a little taller than smith)...

how did he look in short yardage & goal line situations at cal past few years?

 

[Gandalf]

at nearly 220, he is bigger than emmit smith when he was a rookie, with similar squat, compact build with low center of gravity (lynch is listed 5'11", i think a little taller than smith)...how did he look in short yardage & goal line situations at cal past few years?

Lynch definitely has the size and power to be a goal line back. Unless he goes to a team that already has a goal line RB, I don't think it's a concern. In the games I saw, Lynch was above average around the end zone.

 

[jurb26]

2004: Second in the Heisman balloting, best finish ever by a freshman ... No. 3 in voting for the Maxwell Award (player of the year) ... consensus All-American while playing against six ranked foes ... first OU freshman to be named All-America ... first freshman since Dre Bly in 1996 to be named AP All-American ... first freshman Doak Walker Award finalist ... totaled a nation-leading and NCAA freshman record 339 rushing attempts (third highest in OU history) ... No. 3 nationally with 1,925 rushing yards ... yards after contact were 1,365, 71% of his net ... broke OU school season rushing record set in 1978 by Billy Sims (1,896) and NCAA freshman record set in 1996 by Wisconsin’s Ron Dayne (1,863) ... also set NCAA frosh marks for consecutive 100-yard rushing games (9) and total 100-yard rushing games (11) ... His 11, 100-yard games ranked second at OU (Quentin Griffin had 12 in 2002) ... tied NCAA freshman record for reaching 1,000 yards in the fewest games (7) with Emmitt Smith (Florida, 1987) and Marshall Faulk (San Diego State, 1991) ... Greg Pruitt, who reached 1,000 yards in six games of the 1971 season, is the only OU back to reach the plateau faster than Peterson ... rushed for 100 yards in 11 of 13 games ... lone exceptions were game 10 when he played sparingly in a win over Nebraska (15-58) due to injury and the Orange Bowl (25-82) ... No. 6 nationally in rushing yards (148.1 per game) ... set OU freshman all-purpose record with 1,937 yards, the third-highest figure in school history ... No. 15 nationally with 149.0 all-purpose yards/game ... had 44 rushes of 10 or more yards and eight of 35 yards or longer ... second OU frosh to rush for 100 yards in debut game, and the first RB to do so.

So I just read the last part. Anyone know who the first OU frosh to run for 100 yards in his debut game would be?And it isn't a RB?

So yes, he has not finished a complete college season w/o injury.

 

[Bob_Magaw]

you proved your point...

he was injured badly enough that he carried the ball 40 times in those two games in question...

it can be misleading to lump all injuries from broken leg to hangnail together... lets make a distinction between the kind that cause a player to miss games... & those that don't... for the record, he didn't miss any games in his record breaking freshman season...

* this also somewhat of a skewed "stat", in so far as lynch is concerned... he didn't start his rookie season or carry any where close to the load AD did... who can say, he may have been impacted in a few games, too... i think he was generally pretty healthy his soph season, & struggled with sprained ankle/s (both?) in 06...

 

[jurb26]

you proved your point... he was injured badly enough that he carried the ball 40 times in those two games in question...

I was asking the question to find out if it was true. I had heard it mentioned on NFL network but didn't know if it was accurate or not. They mentioned that his durability issues will likely cause him to fall in the draft.... if they haven't already. Something along the lines of teams not wanting to spend that high a pick and amount of money on a RB who gets injured frequently (or at least did in college). Especially in a league where RBs are not at a shortage and there are appealing FA options. Sorry to ruffle the feathers of the AD conglomerate, but it seems that rather than simply answer the question, most avoided it. Thanks FreeBaGeL.

 

[Bob_Magaw]

yes, its true he was hurt badly enough to get 40 carries in those two games in question (though this probably doesn't fit in with the anti-AD bias... just kidding... lighten up, jurb)...

sorry for the confusion... post 36 didn't look like it was phrased as a question...

you seemed to be emphasizing his injury prone nature to pedantic lengths, even in the face of evidence that he didn't miss any games... i thought the distinction between severe injuries that cause one to miss games from relatively less severe ones that don't, to be useful to consider... sorry if you were made uncomfortable with that distinction...

 

[jurb26]

yes, its true he was hurt badly enough to get 40 carries in those two games in question...sorry for the confusion... post 35 didn't look like it was phrased as a question...

I guess the "correct me if I'm wrong" part was confusing.

 

[Bob_Magaw]

fair enough... of course injury history should be looked at... who is the TE from HOU that went on IR three years in a row recently... maybe he is/was just unlucky, but that is a frightening history...

i guess i objected to being labelled in a "contingent" :( ... it smacked a little bit of being biased & skewed... i don't have an axe to grind, but just want to, to best i can, not only marshall the most comprehensive evidence we can about the matter, but also figure out the best way to interpret it...

you appeared to be hammering home the point that he is injured a lot, & i was just trying to step back & note that how serious could it have been? you are technically right... but i think the distinction of missed games & not is important as well... we can both be right...

i still would reiterate that the other injury didn't take place from a direct hit, but was a little more "flukey"... how many RBs break their collarbone by landing funny? a positive is that he doesn't have an extensive history of lower body injuries, which can be construed as a big positive for a RB...

injury history is one part of the equation, but so is talent & potential (though path to greatness is admittedly strewn with the corpses of front offices, personnel types & scouts that drafted on the basis of potential to excess)... i think the less talented a RB is, the less willing they are to overlook flaws... peterson is one of just three RBs in ncaa history to hit 1,000 yard plateau by 7th game (with faulk & emmit), so he is in some rare company...

i wouldn't want to disagree with you too vehemently that some FOs around the league could dock him... it could conceivably cause him to fall out of 1.3 to CLE, maybe even 1.8 to HOU... that is a complicated question & will also be largely decided by other team needs, relative talent at other positions, at that point in draft & later rounds...

a more important question to me, is to try & suss out as fantasy owners how to interpret the evidence of his injuries & how it will impact OUR drafts... it IS an important data point that he was injured every season, & also in my mind that apparently injury wasn't that devastating (at least freshman year)... also, in this light, to weigh the possible differences in potential injury susceptability between AD & lynch, for purposes of this thread discussion... putting too fine a point on things may make me look pedantic, too, but as long as some of these fine grained distinctions serve the overall purpose of getting a better overall handle & understanding on these questions, than i think it is a useful exercise... sorry for being a stickler...

* jene's post is also relevant to forming an overall impression in trying to predict how robust his health might be at next level... i had heard about shoulder clean up, but didn't know extent & severity... i think it was an off-season procedure that didn't cause him to miss any games... trust me jurb, i want to know if AD is truly injury "prone", especially relative to lynch... i'll probably be thinking hard about the matter right up until my draft/s... i have seriously given thought to taking lynch, as he has the more classic, prototypical RB build to withstand the relentless, withering punishment & rigors that come with the position in the NFL (another non-trivial distinction is that lynch appears to be more elusive & has superior make-you-miss ability, which could have huge repercussions down the line in the amount of hits they take ((as well as the nature & type of hits they have to absorb)), & the relative length of their careers) & may ultimately go in that direction... but for now, i'm not as overly concerned as some of the aforementioned front office types are, and as mentioned upthread, a big discrepancy in the fortunes of their eventual destination would likely be the biggest determinant in my decision when the time comes...

 

[SOONERS]

Watchout for AD when he has his pro-day. He'll blow the roof off the joint. He has an incredible work ethic to go along w/God given ability.

When he arrived as a freshman he was able to do 36inch box jumps while holding 60 lb dumbbells!!!!!!! Think about it....this was when he came in...not after he had been in Coach Schmidts wt. program! Unreal!

Now, if that's not explosiveness, I don't know what is!!!

 

[CalBear]

at nearly 220, he is bigger than emmit smith when he was a rookie, with similar squat, compact build with low center of gravity (lynch is listed 5'11", i think a little taller than smith)...how did he look in short yardage & goal line situations at cal past few years?

Lynch was great at the goal line. He's strong, has great vision, and knows when to make the cut into the line.

 

[-OZ-]

2004: Second in the Heisman balloting, best finish ever by a freshman ... No. 3 in voting for the Maxwell Award (player of the year) ... consensus All-American while playing against six ranked foes ... first OU freshman to be named All-America ... first freshman since Dre Bly in 1996 to be named AP All-American ... first freshman Doak Walker Award finalist ... totaled a nation-leading and NCAA freshman record 339 rushing attempts (third highest in OU history) ... No. 3 nationally with 1,925 rushing yards ... yards after contact were 1,365, 71% of his net ... broke OU school season rushing record set in 1978 by Billy Sims (1,896) and NCAA freshman record set in 1996 by Wisconsin’s Ron Dayne (1,863) ... also set NCAA frosh marks for consecutive 100-yard rushing games (9) and total 100-yard rushing games (11) ... His 11, 100-yard games ranked second at OU (Quentin Griffin had 12 in 2002) ... tied NCAA freshman record for reaching 1,000 yards in the fewest games (7) with Emmitt Smith (Florida, 1987) and Marshall Faulk (San Diego State, 1991) ... Greg Pruitt, who reached 1,000 yards in six games of the 1971 season, is the only OU back to reach the plateau faster than Peterson ... rushed for 100 yards in 11 of 13 games ... lone exceptions were game 10 when he played sparingly in a win over Nebraska (15-58) due to injury and the Orange Bowl (25-82) ... No. 6 nationally in rushing yards (148.1 per game) ... set OU freshman all-purpose record with 1,937 yards, the third-highest figure in school history ... No. 15 nationally with 149.0 all-purpose yards/game ... had 44 rushes of 10 or more yards and eight of 35 yards or longer ... second OU frosh to rush for 100 yards in debut game, and the first RB to do so.

So I just read the last part. Anyone know who the first OU frosh to run for 100 yards in his debut game would be?And it isn't a RB?

So yes, he has not finished a complete college season w/o injury.

True enough, but if that's the injury, I'm not complaining.

 

[trader jake]

I'm trying to gauge the "system player effect" on Lynch (if there is one)...what did Marshawn Lynch do/show that JJ Arrington could not while at Cal?

 

[EBF]

I'm trying to gauge the "system player effect" on Lynch (if there is one)...what did Marshawn Lynch do/show that JJ Arrington could not while at Cal?

Arrington never ran with much power and never had the kind of lateral agility that Lynch has. Ask ANY Cal fan and I guarantee you they'll say Lynch is the better back. There's just no comparison between the two. The only thing they have in common is that they were productive at Cal.

 

[jurb26]

a more important question to me, is to try & suss out as fantasy owners how to interpret the evidence of his injuries & how it will impact OUR drafts... it IS an important data point that he was injured every season, & also in my mind that apparently injury wasn't that devastating (at least freshman year)... also, in this light, to weigh the possible differences in potential injury susceptability between AD & lynch, for purposes of this thread discussion... putting too fine a point on things may make me look pedantic, too, but as long as some of these fine grained distinctions serve the overall purpose of getting a better overall handle & understanding on these questions, than i think it is a useful exercise... sorry for being a stickler...

The bottom line I think is that while this could hurt AD in his overal draft position and initial contract. It could lead to a more inviting FF position. Personally, I don't think many will be all that excited if AD is picked by Oak where the Oline is a putrid mess. However, Hou has shown they are capable of producing very nice FF number from, dare I say, average talent RBs.

 

[TwinTurbo]

I would take Adrian Peterson over Lynch all day, every day, and twice on Sunday. The guy is a once in a decade type of talent. And call me crazy, but I would take AD over at least half of the starting RB's in the NFL as well.

 

[LHUCKS]

I would take Adrian Peterson over Lynch all day, every day, and twice on Sunday. The guy is a once in a decade type of talent. And call me crazy, but I would take AD over at least half of the starting RB's in the NFL as well.

crazy

 

[TwinTurbo]

I would take Adrian Peterson over Lynch all day, every day, and twice on Sunday. The guy is a once in a decade type of talent. And call me crazy, but I would take AD over at least half of the starting RB's in the NFL as well.

crazy

Maybe so. But there are some prospects that just stand out above all the rest. Peterson is one of them. The guy reminded me of Lebron James out of high school. Just unbelieveable, unquestionable physical skills that you rarely see in any athlete, let alone a 220lb RB. He also has outstanding work ethic and drive to go along with his rare physical talent. There's no such thing as a sure thing, but Peterson is probably as close as it gets.