Pick #2: Utley? (1 Viewer)

[cobalt_27]

So, we've got our draft coming up next week. Every time I look at this thing, I keep coming around to the same guy...(A) Utley. I love (B) Holliday and think he'll put up the best overall numbers of the guys next in line. But, compared to his peers, the differences don't seem as dramatic as what Utley would do versus the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th best 2B guys available after him. I love the consistency and breadth of (C.) David Wright, but I think Utley's numbers (save the SBs) will match him. Depth, again, at 3B seems healthy. And, I don't like (D) HR this year, especially with no one in the order to protect him. I think average, runs, and HRs all fall by the wayside.

I'm not 100% sold on this move, but I'd sure like to hear what others thing about going this route and what I can expect later on in the draft if I go with options A, B, or C.

TIA

 

[Eephus]

I might consider Utley as a VBD #2 in a points league. Depending on how much you believe in Upton and Phillips, Utley has a large to medium sized positional advantage at 2B. You'd have to run the numbers in your scoring system to see whether Utley's comparative advantage over average and replacement level 2B stats are better than other potential picks.

But I think #2 is too early to pick Utley in a roto league. He is a solid four category contributor but isn't top in any of them. Wright offers comparable production plus SBs.

 

[cobalt_27]

I might consider Utley as a VBD #2 in a points league. Depending on how much you believe in Upton and Phillips, Utley has a large to medium sized positional advantage at 2B. You'd have to run the numbers in your scoring system to see whether Utley's comparative advantage over average and replacement level 2B stats are better than other potential picks.But I think #2 is too early to pick Utley in a roto league. He is a solid four category contributor but isn't top in any of them. Wright offers comparable production plus SBs.

Sorry, should have made that clear.5 x 5, 10-team H2H leagueBatting: C, 1B, 2B, SS, 3B, 3xOF, UTIL

 

[Eephus]

I might consider Utley as a VBD #2 in a points league. Depending on how much you believe in Upton and Phillips, Utley has a large to medium sized positional advantage at 2B. You'd have to run the numbers in your scoring system to see whether Utley's comparative advantage over average and replacement level 2B stats are better than other potential picks.But I think #2 is too early to pick Utley in a roto league. He is a solid four category contributor but isn't top in any of them. Wright offers comparable production plus SBs.

Sorry, should have made that clear.5 x 5, 10-team H2H leagueBatting: C, 1B, 2B, SS, 3B, 3xOF, UTIL

points or roto?

 

[cobalt_27]

I might consider Utley as a VBD #2 in a points league. Depending on how much you believe in Upton and Phillips, Utley has a large to medium sized positional advantage at 2B. You'd have to run the numbers in your scoring system to see whether Utley's comparative advantage over average and replacement level 2B stats are better than other potential picks.But I think #2 is too early to pick Utley in a roto league. He is a solid four category contributor but isn't top in any of them. Wright offers comparable production plus SBs.

Sorry, should have made that clear.5 x 5, 10-team H2H leagueBatting: C, 1B, 2B, SS, 3B, 3xOF, UTIL

points or roto?

Roto

 

[curta269]

I kind of like Utley and Holliday at #2. I really hope I pick later, because I am not sold on any of the 1st rounders other than ARod. Of course, we have 14 teams, so chanes are high that I will be picking at the end of the 1st round.

 

[Eephus]

I don't see Utley at #2 in any roto based format. His production is good in comparison to other 2B but probably not enough in absolute production to steal you a category in a given week.

 

[cobalt_27]

I don't see Utley at #2 in any roto based format. His production is good in comparison to other 2B but probably not enough in absolute production to steal you a category in a given week.

Ok, so then would you go Wright? Holliday?

 

[Eephus]

If I understand your earlier posts, your league is weekly H2H based on roto category scoring. Are you playing for ten points every week, or does the winner of more weekly categories get a single win?

I think your format favors SB & HR guys because of their scarcity. R, RBI and AVG are a weekly crapshoot. In this format, there might be a case to be made for either Reyes or Hanley Ramirez. SBs are the scarcest offensive category. Strong teams in SBs usually end the year with around 150. Reyes & Hanley can get you 1/2 or 1/3 of the way there, and will single handedly win you the category some weeks.

 

[MAC_32]

I think you're crazy for valuing Utley over Holiday or Wright. If you're a strong believer in finding steals later I understand wanting him more than Reyes and Hanley and if you believe you can make up for the lost pop in Prince and Howard I'm fine with passing on them too. I find it harder to believe you can justify Utley over Miggy, but that could be my Tigers bias kicking in. Draft the best numbers early, if Utley, Wright, and Holiday all play 155 healthy games Utley would be on the short end more often than not. Positional scarcity is non existant at 2B this year, especially in just a 10 teamer.

 

[cobalt_27]

I think you're crazy for valuing Utley over Holiday or Wright. If you're a strong believer in finding steals later I understand wanting him more than Reyes and Hanley and if you believe you can make up for the lost pop in Prince and Howard I'm fine with passing on them too. I find it harder to believe you can justify Utley over Miggy, but that could be my Tigers bias kicking in. Draft the best numbers early, if Utley, Wright, and Holiday all play 155 healthy games Utley would be on the short end more often than not. Positional scarcity is non existant at 2B this year, especially in just a 10 teamer.

This I totally don't understand. Or, perhaps, I just vehemently disagree. I had Brandon Phillips last year, so I'm familiar with his potential. I guar-un-tee he won't replicate last year in any way. Not an Upton believer just yet. And, then you're dealing with the Canos, Figgins, Ugglas of the league who have gaping holes in their game. Utley just rakes. And, while Holliday will likely have better numbers overall, we can make up a substantial portion of those numbers with Utley and a later OFer. I can't even remotely see going with Howard or Fielder at #2, given the 5 tools that are out there.

 

[MAC_32]

I think you're crazy for valuing Utley over Holiday or Wright. If you're a strong believer in finding steals later I understand wanting him more than Reyes and Hanley and if you believe you can make up for the lost pop in Prince and Howard I'm fine with passing on them too. I find it harder to believe you can justify Utley over Miggy, but that could be my Tigers bias kicking in. Draft the best numbers early, if Utley, Wright, and Holiday all play 155 healthy games Utley would be on the short end more often than not. Positional scarcity is non existant at 2B this year, especially in just a 10 teamer.

This I totally don't understand. Or, perhaps, I just vehemently disagree. I had Brandon Phillips last year, so I'm familiar with his potential. I guar-un-tee he won't replicate last year in any way. Not an Upton believer just yet. And, then you're dealing with the Canos, Figgins, Ugglas of the league who have gaping holes in their game. Utley just rakes. And, while Holliday will likely have better numbers overall, we can make up a substantial portion of those numbers with Utley and a later OFer. I can't even remotely see going with Howard or Fielder at #2, given the 5 tools that are out there.

Just so we're clear I never said I'd advocate Fielder or Howard anywhere near #2, above Utley? Yes, but I have Utley lower than most. Do some reading and some number crunching, you'll soon find out that 2B is deep this year, especially in a league as shallow as a 10 teamer. There are some value OF's I really like as I have pimped in other threads, but that doesn't mean I reach for the supposed "shallow" positions.

 

[Pnishthm]

I don't see Utley at #2 in any roto based format. His production is good in comparison to other 2B but probably not enough in absolute production to steal you a category in a given week.

Ok, so then would you go Wright? Holliday?

Yes and yes.

 

[Finless]

I'm surprised at the lack of love the 24 year old masher, Miguel Cabrera is getting. He's put up amazing numbers playing out of shape in Florida. Now he's in shape and playing in one of the most dangerous lineups in the history of evers. This guy is a beast.

:triplecrown:

 

[cobalt_27]

I think you're crazy for valuing Utley over Holiday or Wright. If you're a strong believer in finding steals later I understand wanting him more than Reyes and Hanley and if you believe you can make up for the lost pop in Prince and Howard I'm fine with passing on them too. I find it harder to believe you can justify Utley over Miggy, but that could be my Tigers bias kicking in. Draft the best numbers early, if Utley, Wright, and Holiday all play 155 healthy games Utley would be on the short end more often than not. Positional scarcity is non existant at 2B this year, especially in just a 10 teamer.

This I totally don't understand. Or, perhaps, I just vehemently disagree. I had Brandon Phillips last year, so I'm familiar with his potential. I guar-un-tee he won't replicate last year in any way. Not an Upton believer just yet. And, then you're dealing with the Canos, Figgins, Ugglas of the league who have gaping holes in their game. Utley just rakes. And, while Holliday will likely have better numbers overall, we can make up a substantial portion of those numbers with Utley and a later OFer. I can't even remotely see going with Howard or Fielder at #2, given the 5 tools that are out there.

Just so we're clear I never said I'd advocate Fielder or Howard anywhere near #2, above Utley? Yes, but I have Utley lower than most. Do some reading and some number crunching, you'll soon find out that 2B is deep this year, especially in a league as shallow as a 10 teamer. There are some value OF's I really like as I have pimped in other threads, but that doesn't mean I reach for the supposed "shallow" positions.

I've done the reading and the number crunching. Z-scores of the top-10 at each position (30 for OF) weighted for position, according to my calculations, have Utley 3rd overall (based on ESPN projections). I guess I don't believe everything I read.

 

[MAC_32]

I think you're crazy for valuing Utley over Holiday or Wright. If you're a strong believer in finding steals later I understand wanting him more than Reyes and Hanley and if you believe you can make up for the lost pop in Prince and Howard I'm fine with passing on them too. I find it harder to believe you can justify Utley over Miggy, but that could be my Tigers bias kicking in. Draft the best numbers early, if Utley, Wright, and Holiday all play 155 healthy games Utley would be on the short end more often than not. Positional scarcity is non existant at 2B this year, especially in just a 10 teamer.

This I totally don't understand. Or, perhaps, I just vehemently disagree. I had Brandon Phillips last year, so I'm familiar with his potential. I guar-un-tee he won't replicate last year in any way. Not an Upton believer just yet. And, then you're dealing with the Canos, Figgins, Ugglas of the league who have gaping holes in their game. Utley just rakes. And, while Holliday will likely have better numbers overall, we can make up a substantial portion of those numbers with Utley and a later OFer. I can't even remotely see going with Howard or Fielder at #2, given the 5 tools that are out there.

Just so we're clear I never said I'd advocate Fielder or Howard anywhere near #2, above Utley? Yes, but I have Utley lower than most. Do some reading and some number crunching, you'll soon find out that 2B is deep this year, especially in a league as shallow as a 10 teamer. There are some value OF's I really like as I have pimped in other threads, but that doesn't mean I reach for the supposed "shallow" positions.

I've done the reading and the number crunching. Z-scores of the top-10 at each position (30 for OF) weighted for position, according to my calculations, have Utley 3rd overall (based on ESPN projections). I guess I don't believe everything I read.

Then you must not believe in any of Weeks, Kendrick, Kelly Johnson, or any of the other later round value 2Baggers. For someone that's being asked to be talked off the ledge you seem pretty opinionated on the subject...and if you have him 3rd then why are you considering him #2?

 

[trogg78]

I had pondered this as well. I was trying to decide between David Wright, Matt Holliday, and Albert Pujols. It was actually kind of easy since I already had Matt Holliday on a team and Albert Pujols on a team....so I decided to diversify and went David Wright.

 

[Pnishthm]

I had pondered this as well. I was trying to decide between David Wright, Matt Holliday, and Albert Pujols. It was actually kind of easy since I already had Matt Holliday on a team and Albert Pujols on a team....so I decided to diversify and went David Wright.

Are people still considering Pujoles @ #2? Really?

 

[trogg78]

I had pondered this as well. I was trying to decide between David Wright, Matt Holliday, and Albert Pujols. It was actually kind of easy since I already had Matt Holliday on a team and Albert Pujols on a team....so I decided to diversify and went David Wright.

Are people still considering Pujoles @ #2? Really?

I have never heard anyone else consider it....but I considered it. I probably would have taken him if I didn't get him in my auction league.

 

[Mr. Know-It-All]

I might consider Utley as a VBD #2 in a points league. Depending on how much you believe in Upton and Phillips, Utley has a large to medium sized positional advantage at 2B. You'd have to run the numbers in your scoring system to see whether Utley's comparative advantage over average and replacement level 2B stats are better than other potential picks.But I think #2 is too early to pick Utley in a roto league. He is a solid four category contributor but isn't top in any of them. Wright offers comparable production plus SBs.

My sentiments exactly - in a points league I think Utley is definitely a top 3 or 4 player, whereas in Roto he could drop as low as 10-12. In my points league I managed to get him at #6.In my roto auction, I am looking at passing on him if he is the first 2B brought up as his $s will be waaay to high.

 

[boom king]

I'm surprised at the lack of love the 24 year old masher, Miguel Cabrera is getting. He's put up amazing numbers playing out of shape in Florida. Now he's in shape and playing in one of the most dangerous lineups in the history of evers. This guy is a beast.:triplecrown:

i like your thinking son

 

[weisguy0831]

I think you're crazy for valuing Utley over Holiday or Wright. If you're a strong believer in finding steals later I understand wanting him more than Reyes and Hanley and if you believe you can make up for the lost pop in Prince and Howard I'm fine with passing on them too. I find it harder to believe you can justify Utley over Miggy, but that could be my Tigers bias kicking in. Draft the best numbers early, if Utley, Wright, and Holiday all play 155 healthy games Utley would be on the short end more often than not. Positional scarcity is non existant at 2B this year, especially in just a 10 teamer.

This I totally don't understand. Or, perhaps, I just vehemently disagree. I had Brandon Phillips last year, so I'm familiar with his potential. I guar-un-tee he won't replicate last year in any way. Not an Upton believer just yet. And, then you're dealing with the Canos, Figgins, Ugglas of the league who have gaping holes in their game. Utley just rakes. And, while Holliday will likely have better numbers overall, we can make up a substantial portion of those numbers with Utley and a later OFer. I can't even remotely see going with Howard or Fielder at #2, given the 5 tools that are out there.

based on what?