picking a player well before their ADP (1 Viewer)

[After the Rain]

Let's assume that a trade just isn't going to work out and you know the chances of you getting a guy on your next pick are marginal at best (say you are picking at the 30-31 turn and the players ADP is like 43 or 44 or you are picking at 4 and the guy's ADP is 10 or 11--10 team league). Everything you read says that the player should be picked later than your pick. At the same time, you really think the player will do well and would be a good pick.

Do you guys typically:

--Go ahead and pick him

--Assume that all of those people (many of whom likely know more than you) are right and pick someone else

Also, if you have done either in the past, how has it worked for you?

 

[JBPH]

I tend to pick the best player available who I do not believe will make it to my next pick. If you are really high on the guy, take him. It's your team!

 

[King of the Jungle]

I was thinking about the same subject this morning. I have my draft coming up this next Saturday (10 team - two keeper - mine are Ron Brown/Steve Smith). So in the first round (actually 3.02 - bad year last season), I really want to grab Reggie Wayne. I think it is a little high, but I dont think he will be their at the next pick. We'll see how it works out.

 

[Organized Chaos]

Yeah, if you know they wont be there and you want them on your team, go for it.

This past Saturday, I had my local PPR draft. I took Kevin Jones at 1.11 and Bush at 2.02, both much sooner then their ADP, and neither would have been there later..

I also took Matt Jones 7.12 and Antonio Bryant 8.01 later because I knew they wouldnt be there next time around and I feel they both have potential to do well this year.

 

[gruecd]

I just picked Bush at 2.01 in my 10-team local league. He was the 10th RB taken. I'll let you know how it works out.

 

[PennState-JD]

I remember doing a draft a few years ago and weighing the ADP heavily. And I got a lot of guys that had slipped -- mainly due to injuries. My team sucked, but ... I got great value!

If you really like a guy, get him as close to his ADP as you can. I try to determine how many savvy owners there are and where they pick. For example, I agree that Bryant has some upside and while his ADP may be round 9 or 10, I wouldn't hesitate to take him earlier (8) if the other receivers still around then don't appeal to me as much. If there are a handful that I have rated about the same, I may roll the dice an extra round and go elsewhere with the pick.

Also, see if you can gauge the other owners. There are a few teams that I know who they like and that can be helpful as well.

 

[cr8f]

I was thinking about the same subject this morning. I have my draft coming up this next Saturday (10 team - two keeper - mine are Ron Brown/Steve Smith). So in the first round (actually 3.02 - bad year last season), I really want to grab Reggie Wayne. I think it is a little high, but I dont think he will be their at the next pick. We'll see how it works out.

If you want him grab him there. I doubt if he'll last either.

 

[Ozymandias]

I sometime ask myself the following question: Which player will I be most upset about if he doesn't make it to my next pick?

That's why I took Matt Jones with the 62nd pick, even though his ADP is 71.

 

[David Yudkin]

When you draft at or near the turn, you normally will have to take one guy that fell and is pretty good value and one guy you want too soon or he'll never make it back. So it coancels each other out.

I've been in several drafts the last week or so where some people took players WAY ahead of normal (and I mean by several rounds, not a handful of picks). Lundy and Williamson went in the 8th in one of my leagues. If someone wants a player and can't live without him, then he'll go way earlier than most would take him.

 

[GregR_2]

It's a reach to take a guy with one of your picks when he's almost surely still going to be there at your next pick. It isn't a reach to take someone at the last pick of yours that he's likely to be there.

If you think he's the best player for your team, and you don't think he'll make it to your next pick... and you can't trade down, then by all means pick him.

 

[Otis]

I almost never take a guy above his ADP, unless I believe he is so ridiculously undervalued at his ADP and I am certain he is going to be a stud.

A perfect example was taking LJ in the 2nd round in a new start-up dynasty league last summer (and also paying well above backup RB value for him in a keeper auction league) -- I was mocked for both (perhaps rightly), but we all know where last season took us.

However, I very rarely would do this.

 

[amnesiac]

When you draft at or near the turn, you normally will have to take one guy that fell and is pretty good value and one guy you want too soon or he'll never make it back. So it coancels each other out.

i'm finding this out right now in my draft.but sometimes you find one guy who is an awesome value, and then the next is still good value.to answer the original poster's question, absolutely, but only if you think that player will perform to that draft position. i know it sounds obvious, but sometimes we'll take a guy early just cause we like the player.

 

[KCC]

I usually draft using an ADP sheet as a guide. Antsports is a good source because, in addition to the ADP, they list the earliest and latest draft position for each player. Unless there has been some recent news to dramaticly alter a player's value (i.e. he's a backup to a player who just got injured or traded) I'll use the earliest draft position as a guide for guys I really want on my team.

 

[Bob Sacamano]

That's why I took Matt Jones with the 62nd pick, even though his ADP is 71.

It seems to me that's a little too strict a use of ADP. ADP should be a guide. If you're between a couple of players and ADP dictates that one has a better chance of making it back to you, THAT'S where you should be using ADP to make your draft decisions. Otherwise, trust your projections and your rankings. In my mind, especially as a draft wears on into the later rounds, if you're within about a round of a player's ADP, you aren't reaching for him. I wouldn't view 62 vs. 71 as an extreme departure from ADP.

 

[Mystery Achiever]

When you draft at or near the turn, you normally will have to take one guy that fell and is pretty good value and one guy you want too soon or he'll never make it back. So it coancels each other out.

i'm finding this out right now in my draft.but sometimes you find one guy who is an awesome value, and then the next is still good value.to answer the original poster's question, absolutely, but only if you think that player will perform to that draft position. i know it sounds obvious, but sometimes we'll take a guy early just cause we like the player.

That does make sense. Unlucky posted the High/Low for every player in yesterday's 6 League Omega Draft. I drafted at the turn and had 4 of the Highs (one was LT) and 6 of the lows. I know I reached based on ADP for M Barber at 7.01, but that's who I wanted as my last RB so I just took him. We'll see if it works out. I tghink Bob Sacamano's post sums up the question well.

 

[Pittsburgh United]

Where does FBG get their ADP data?

 

[mojorizin]

Where does FBG get their ADP data?

Antsports I think

 

[mojorizin]

I agree with those that say its your team - do whatcha wanna do.

Projections are exactly that....projections. What are the chances the #18 preseason RB ends up the #18 RB in December? He wont be. He'll be #7 or #11 or #37. Sure, take the RB at the "proper" ADP, but his season wont reflect it....guaranteed. If you think the guy that WON'T fall to you is going to explode, and the guys in front of him wont, then take him. Value my butt. Value doesnt mean anything at the draft because there is no value beyond where you take him vs ADP. Value only means something when they start performing on the field.

How many times did you get that great guy every one's been posting about and slipped into the SEVENTH ROUND and he hangs up 500 yards ant 2 TDs all year? My guess is everyone of us, every year. Wish I had a nickel for every great value I've got in the draft.

This doesnt mean shoot yourself in the foot for a guy you could certainly have later, but if you see something special in a player and think he's going to make a difference, draft him.