Picking from the # 3 Spot (1 Viewer)

[MikeApf]

10 team league

6 points all TDs - rush, rec, and passing

1 point per 10 yards rush or rec

1 point per 20 yards passing

1 point per reception

Start 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 Flex, K, D

Sitting at the three slot and while conventionally wisdom from cheat sheets shows Foster, Rice, and McCoy going 1, 2, 3, I find myself increasingly tempted to nab Aaron Rodgers with my first pick. This is a keeper league...and I can keep Marshawn Lynch this year for my 4th pick. I'm thinking if I don't go QB # 1, the top 5 will be gone (Stafford and Newton are keepers for other teams)...meanwhile, if I go QB at 1, I could still possibly get someone like Peterson, Richaardson, or Murray to pair with Lynch. The alternative would be to go with McCoy and Lynch, then end up with a QB like Phillip Rivers, Peyton, or Romo.

Am I crazy for feeling the combination of Rodgers, Lynch, + second tier back > second tier QB, Lynch and McCoy?

What are you thinking if you are in this spot?

 

[Run It Up]

Yes taking a QB is a disaster.

From the mocks ive done out of the three its been my most successful spot.

Going RB in the 1.03 is a necessity imo.

1. Ray Rice

2. MJD

3. Wes Welker

4. Frank Gore

5. Vernon Davis

6. Eric Decker

7. Stevie Johnson

8. Phillip Rivers

9. Michael Bush

10. Roy Helu

11. Danny Amendola

12. Lance Moore

13. Matt Schaub

14. Josh Freeman

 

[bill bates hits hard]

I have 1.3 and REALLY want to take DMC there. I love MCCoy but my gut says DMC this year is a game changer. Yes risky but you have to take chance to win it.

Coach said he's the GL back and more receptions. Am I crazy? I'm feeling it.

 

[Tusken Raider]

I have the #3 in a 10 team PPR. Pass TDs 4, all others 6. I'm seriously considering A.Rodgers instead of whichever of the big three RBs fall to me. Something tells me Rodgers is gonna have another outstanding season, & I have to have him on my squad.

Then again, I may stick with the RB. I don't effing know.

 

[MikeApf]

I have the #3 in a 10 team PPR. Pass TDs 4, all others 6. I'm seriously considering A.Rodgers instead of whichever of the big three RBs fall to me. Something tells me Rodgers is gonna have another outstanding season, & I have to have him on my squad.Then again, I may stick with the RB. I don't effing know.

I went back and looked at the projections for each option based on my scoring system. I compared Rodgers with Phillip Rivers and Tony Romo, since that's about the player I think I'd end up with if I didn't go Rodgers. Then I compared McCoy (which many feel is going 3rd) with my likely alternative for that pick -- which is looking like Richardson, Peterson, Murry or someone like that. I have Lynch as a keeper so RB2 is set regardless of what I do.Anyway, I've run about 6 mock drafts from the 3 slot and am getting a good feel as to who is gonna be there. Anyway, when I did this comparison, Rodgers outscors Rivers in my scoring system by about 415 to 280 (135 points over the span of the season). Meanwhile, McCoy outscores his likely alternatives by 320 to 230 or about 90 points.Based on the math, I think I should take Rodgers. The only thing causing hesitation is all of the "conventially wisdom and cheat sheets" saying TAKE RB IN TOP THREE. But if you look at the math for your scoring system in light of projections, then I believe you can take Rodgers as high as 3 without reaching.

 

[bill bates hits hard]

I have the #3 in a 10 team PPR. Pass TDs 4, all others 6. I'm seriously considering A.Rodgers instead of whichever of the big three RBs fall to me. Something tells me Rodgers is gonna have another outstanding season, & I have to have him on my squad.Then again, I may stick with the RB. I don't effing know.

I went back and looked at the projections for each option based on my scoring system. I compared Rodgers with Phillip Rivers and Tony Romo, since that's about the player I think I'd end up with if I didn't go Rodgers. Then I compared McCoy (which many feel is going 3rd) with my likely alternative for that pick -- which is looking like Richardson, Peterson, Murry or someone like that. I have Lynch as a keeper so RB2 is set regardless of what I do.Anyway, I've run about 6 mock drafts from the 3 slot and am getting a good feel as to who is gonna be there. Anyway, when I did this comparison, Rodgers outscors Rivers in my scoring system by about 415 to 280 (135 points over the span of the season). Meanwhile, McCoy outscores his likely alternatives by 320 to 230 or about 90 points.Based on the math, I think I should take Rodgers. The only thing causing hesitation is all of the "conventially wisdom and cheat sheets" saying TAKE RB IN TOP THREE. But if you look at the math for your scoring system in light of projections, then I believe you can take Rodgers as high as 3 without reaching.

Right but what if you take MCcoy at 3 and come back with cam or Stafford if they're available ( one of the two have been in my mocks)? McCoy/ cam or say rodgers/richardson? Total points?

 

[BigDave]

I'm in a similar position, 10 teams, non PPR, 6 pts for passing tds.

I'm having a hard time doing it as well. Rogers is a STUD, but a chance at a top 2 RB is too good to pass up.

My league is non keeper, so if I went Rogers, I'm seeing the following RB's in mocks:

Jones-Drew - holdout but will be back at some point early in the season

Lynch - got paid$$, suspension???

DeMarco-Bad O line scares me as well as all those WR/TE injuries on Dallas

I'm taking one of the top RB's and hopiing Stafford falls to me at #18.

If not, I'm targeting Ryan at 38 or 43.

 

[EBF]

I have 1.3 and REALLY want to take DMC there. I love MCCoy but my gut says DMC this year is a game changer. Yes risky but you have to take chance to win it.

Coach said he's the GL back and more receptions. Am I crazy? I'm feeling it.

Yes.I have this pick in my redraft league. I'm going McCoy, Rice, or Foster.

As the saying goes, "You can't win your draft in the first round, but you can lose it."

 

[squistion]

I have 1.3 and REALLY want to take DMC there. I love MCCoy but my gut says DMC this year is a game changer. Yes risky but you have to take chance to win it.Coach said he's the GL back and more receptions. Am I crazy? I'm feeling it.

Always best to go with your gut feelings. Nothing worse than watching someone else win a championship with a player you really wanted to take, but didn't because the conventional wisdom said to pick another player (but your instincts/intuition told you otherwise). And in many years about 50% of the 1st round picks are busts anyway, so you might as well go with who you really like. Also a 1st round misstep does not always doom your chances in making the playoff or winning your league,(although it does make it a lot tougher).