Player Spotlight: Adrian Peterson (1 Viewer)

[Jason Wood]

2008 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. Last year, we published more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters. This year will be no different.

Each week we will post a list of players to be discussed. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discussion expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Adrian Peterson, RB, Minnesota Vikings

Player Page Link: Adrian Peterson Player Page

Each article will include:

Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads
FBG Projections
Consensus Member ProjectionsThe Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

Focus commentary on the player in question, and your expectations for said player
Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
To be included in the final synopsis and consensus outlook, you MUST provide projections for the playerProjections should include (at a minimum):

For QBs: Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDsNow let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

 

[Michael Fox Fan]

Wouldn't be surprised to see him miss 2-4 games this year. As such, I'll base my projections on a 14-game season.

18 carries per game x 4.5 yds per carry = 81 yds per game. Yes, I see him regressing on ypc - it's ridiculous to expect ADP to average 5+ ypc again. 1 TD per game seems reasonable, a bit higher than last year.

1.5 catches per game. 10 ypc = 15 yds receiving per game. 0 TDs

252 carries for 1134 yards, 14 TDs

21 catches for 210 yds, 0 TDs

Note: personally, I think ADP is the most explosive player in the NFL right now. As such, he should get more than 19.5 touches per game. But I also think Childress is an idiot, so who knows what will happen?

 

[Horsec]

agree with him having a 14 game season... still:

1450 rush/425 rec (35 rec) 18 total TD

 

[RoyDubb]

Wouldn't be surprised to see him miss 2-4 games this year. As such, I'll base my projections on a 14-game season.18 carries per game x 4.5 yds per carry = 81 yds per game. Yes, I see him regressing on ypc - it's ridiculous to expect ADP to average 5+ ypc again. 1 TD per game seems reasonable, a bit higher than last year. 1.5 catches per game. 10 ypc = 15 yds receiving per game. 0 TDs252 carries for 1134 yards, 14 TDs21 catches for 210 yds, 0 TDsNote: personally, I think ADP is the most explosive player in the NFL right now. As such, he should get more than 19.5 touches per game. But I also think Childress is an idiot, so who knows what will happen?

No way this beast gets only 252 carries.

 

[JPeso]

Yo, Adrian! Until Jackson gets more comfortable, teams will stack the box as they did late in the season. Early on, AP was a surprise, but as the year progressed, that YPC dropped. More third downs? More catches? Don't overwork the young fella. Still, a monster year in 08, and the #1 player in dynasty.

280 rushes, 1,300 rush yards, 4.64 YPC, 11 rush TD

25 catches, 250 yards, 10.0 YPC, 2 TD

 

[Pictus Cat]

Stacking 8 in the box may drop his yards per carry, but ADP will live up to his nickname "All Day." Over 300 carries. Chester will be the rester.

Only 3 defenders left when he busts through the 8 for some long ones. Minnesota's defense will keep the fields short and ADP on it.

300+ carries, 1500 yds, 22 TDs , 20 rec 200 yds 2 TDs

 

[gianmarco]

Alright, I'll try to tone down my man-love for him. I think this guy is capable of putting up unbelievable #'s, but I'm going to temper my enthusiasm a little bit. First of all, I don't see him getting a full-load as it just isn't necessary. But, I do think he's going to be seeing at least 16-18 carries/game for about 275 carries on the year. I also think we see him getting more balls thrown his way in the backfield and he should see about 40-45 catches over the season.

275 carries, 4.9 ypc = 1350 yds, 14 TDs

40 receptions, 380 yds, 4 TDs

 

[RoyDubb]

20 carries a game is not OVERUSING Peterson, and i'm thinking that is the minimum he'll get if they want to make the playoffs.

320 carries, 1536 yds, 4.8ypc, 16 TDs

35 rec, 300 yds, 2 TDs

 

[vikingdave]

350 carries

2106 yards

6.0 YPC

19 TDs

32 catches

300 yards

3 TDs

 

[gianmarco]

350 carries2106 yards6.0 YPC19 TDs32 catches300 yards3 TDs

So that's his floor.....what's his ceiling?

 

[burd]

im saying 1200 yrds, 15 tds.

the defense will keep games close, otherwise the Vikes offense would be in pass mode in the 2nd half as they try to catch up. Scoring was a big problem last year. I dont know if they've done enough to correct it though as they are pinning their hopes to Tavaris Jackson again. Still i see ADP getting a lot of red zone touches. the OL is an impressive run-block group and routinely man-handle the competition.

 

[Phlash]

350 carries

2106 yards

6.0 YPC

19 TDs

32 catches

300 yards

3 TDs

So that's his floor.....what's his ceiling?

420 carries2940 yards

7.0 YPC

30 TDs

100 catches

1200 yards

10 TDs

 

[gianmarco]

350 carries

2106 yards

6.0 YPC

19 TDs

32 catches

300 yards

3 TDs

So that's his floor.....what's his ceiling?

420 carries2940 yards

7.0 YPC

30 TDs

100 catches

1200 yards

10 TDs

Thanks

 

[radballs]

280 carries for 1,350 yards, 16 TDs, 28 receptions for 350 yards and 1 TD

 

[Ministry of Pain]

This is still going to be a 2 back system of sorts. I expect to see Peterson get 20 cariries and CT as the RB2 to get at least 10+ carries a game. I'll knock it down to 19 carries a game just to keep it under 300. They have a great OL, the only question for me is that they lost Tony Richardson at FB, he won't be easy to replace.

288 carries, 1,400 yds rushing, 32 catches, 300 yds receiving, 15 total TD.

 

[The Man with the Plan]

AD had over 1000 yards in his first 8 games then he had a knee injury which caused him to miss two games. Upon his return his numbers took a dive especially in the last 1/4 of the season. Personally I think he came back too early but that shows his toughness. Assuming that he's 100% I don't see why he doesn't continue his beastly ways. I just wish the Vikings would get him more involved in the passing game.

300 carries 1500 yards 13 TD 25 catches 250 yards 2 TD

At best the #1 rb. At worst the #3 behind LT and Westbrook.

 

[Arnold. S]

350 carries

2106 yards

6.0 YPC

19 TDs

32 catches

300 yards

3 TDs

So that's his floor.....what's his ceiling?

420 carries2940 yards

7.0 YPC

30 TDs

100 catches

1200 yards

10 TDs

don't forget 8 completions, 11 attempts, 6 TDs throwing the ball

 

[Winning IS Everything]

Peterson is probably the most talented (or at least top 3-5) RB in this league. Great vision, cut moves like Sanders, speed to blow defenders away, is an underrated receiver and gets yards after contact. Peterson is everything you look for in a back. He may have a high chance for injury, but what RB does not? The OL for the Vikings is top notch, and if the passing game can improve, watch out!!!!!

295 - 1425 - 15 Rush 30 - 275 - 2 rec.

 

[by_the_sea_wannabe]

265 - 1378 -12

35 -385 - 2

 

[eric rymer]

This is still going to be a 2 back system of sorts. I expect to see Peterson get 20 cariries and CT as the RB2 to get at least 10+ carries a game. I'll knock it down to 19 carries a game just to keep it under 300. They have a great OL, the only question for me is that they lost Tony Richardson at FB, he won't be easy to replace.288 carries, 1,400 yds rushing, 32 catches, 300 yds receiving, 15 total TD.

pretty much the same numbers I was thinking.285-1400-13 / 30-300-2

 

[T Bell]

Wouldn't be surprised to see him miss 2-4 games this year. As such, I'll base my projections on a 14-game season.18 carries per game x 4.5 yds per carry = 81 yds per game. Yes, I see him regressing on ypc - it's ridiculous to expect ADP to average 5+ ypc again. 1 TD per game seems reasonable, a bit higher than last year. 1.5 catches per game. 10 ypc = 15 yds receiving per game. 0 TDs252 carries for 1134 yards, 14 TDs21 catches for 210 yds, 0 TDsNote: personally, I think ADP is the most explosive player in the NFL right now. As such, he should get more than 19.5 touches per game. But I also think Childress is an idiot, so who knows what will happen?

No way this beast gets only 252 carries.

If they're smart, they limit him and make it a goal to keep him lower than 300 carries, like Portis was in Denver. If he misses a few games under those circumstances (which most people, including me, predict he will), 252 carries seems dead on.I don't directly project injuries into my numbers - that's too shaky for me unless the guy's entering the season injured and I know for a fact he's going to miss games. I project a full 16-game season and then on draft day I'll adjust for injury risk. Here's my 16-game projection:290-1595-2040-420-2

 

[Michael Fox Fan]

Wouldn't be surprised to see him miss 2-4 games this year. As such, I'll base my projections on a 14-game season.18 carries per game x 4.5 yds per carry = 81 yds per game. Yes, I see him regressing on ypc - it's ridiculous to expect ADP to average 5+ ypc again. 1 TD per game seems reasonable, a bit higher than last year. 1.5 catches per game. 10 ypc = 15 yds receiving per game. 0 TDs252 carries for 1134 yards, 14 TDs21 catches for 210 yds, 0 TDsNote: personally, I think ADP is the most explosive player in the NFL right now. As such, he should get more than 19.5 touches per game. But I also think Childress is an idiot, so who knows what will happen?

No way this beast gets only 252 carries.

If they're smart, they limit him and make it a goal to keep him lower than 300 carries, like Portis was in Denver. If he misses a few games under those circumstances (which most people, including me, predict he will), 252 carries seems dead on.I don't directly project injuries into my numbers - that's too shaky for me unless the guy's entering the season injured and I know for a fact he's going to miss games. I project a full 16-game season and then on draft day I'll adjust for injury risk. Here's my 16-game projection:290-1595-2040-420-2

Do you really think he'll get 5.5 yards per carry in 2008? How many RBs have been able to do that?

 

[T Bell]

Wouldn't be surprised to see him miss 2-4 games this year. As such, I'll base my projections on a 14-game season.

18 carries per game x 4.5 yds per carry = 81 yds per game. Yes, I see him regressing on ypc - it's ridiculous to expect ADP to average 5+ ypc again. 1 TD per game seems reasonable, a bit higher than last year.

1.5 catches per game. 10 ypc = 15 yds receiving per game. 0 TDs

252 carries for 1134 yards, 14 TDs

21 catches for 210 yds, 0 TDs

Note: personally, I think ADP is the most explosive player in the NFL right now. As such, he should get more than 19.5 touches per game. But I also think Childress is an idiot, so who knows what will happen?

No way this beast gets only 252 carries.

If they're smart, they limit him and make it a goal to keep him lower than 300 carries, like Portis was in Denver. If he misses a few games under those circumstances (which most people, including me, predict he will), 252 carries seems dead on.I don't directly project injuries into my numbers - that's too shaky for me unless the guy's entering the season injured and I know for a fact he's going to miss games. I project a full 16-game season and then on draft day I'll adjust for injury risk.

Here's my 16-game projection:

290-1595-20

40-420-2

Do you really think he'll get 5.5 yards per carry in 2008? How many RBs have been able to do that?

Yes, I do, particularly if they limit his carries the way that I think they should - and can limit them given that they have Chester Taylor backing him up. Look at his yards per carry from last year when he was playing healthy, from weeks 1-10. He was 184/1197, which is 6.5 ypc.

I'd compare him and his situation to Portis in Denver. Portis averaged >5 yards per carry for both of those years.

 

[css2373]

Really good o-line, opportunistic D and a pretty good special teams giving him chances...

14 game proj:

280 carries 1350 yds 15 TDs

25 recs 375 yds 2 TDs

 

[Jedimaster21]

Adrian Peterson is a beast. Don't forget how good this guy is. When making projections, I think it is usually a very prudent decision to be conservative, but some of these projections seem a bit low considering what we know.

1. As a rookie, he had 238 carries for 1341 and 12 TDs rushing, and 19 catches for 268 and 1 score. He averaged 5.6 YPC and 14.1 YPR. Remember, he put up these numbers as a rookie, despite having to deal with huge expectations, developing a relationship with teamates, and learning an NFL system.

2. Everyone that has ever been quoted commenting on this guy's character states that he is the hardest worker on the team and is a natural leader.

3. AD got hurt last year (LCL sprain) which affected his second half numbers

4. The Vikings had no passing attack last year, and brought in a very good WR in Berrian. TJ will continue to progress, and AD will not be seeing 8 and 9 men in the box as frequently next year.

5. The addition of Jared Allen will also help AD, considering a dominating pass rusher will help the Vikings stay ahead and keep them feeding the ball to Peterson.

6. Players usually have the most improvement going from their first year to their second.

7. Peterson will be more comfortable in the system and more trusted to be on the field in passing situations this season, which should increase his receptions. He has also indicated that improvement in this area will be his focus this offseason.

There is no way this guy gets under 1400 yards and 10 TDs considering the current situation, unless he misses significant time. He may not average 5.6 yards again, but he didn't lose his speed and his offense has improved by quite a bit since last season.

16 game prediction:

320 carries for 1600 yards and 15 scores

35 receptions for 350 yards and 3 scores

He may miss a game or two due to his style, which could cause these numbers to drop slightly. However, this player also has more upside than any fantasy player you can pick. If everything breaks right for him and he continues to dominate and improve, he could approach 2000 yards and 20 scores.

 

[Jedimaster21]

Wouldn't be surprised to see him miss 2-4 games this year. As such, I'll base my projections on a 14-game season.18 carries per game x 4.5 yds per carry = 81 yds per game. Yes, I see him regressing on ypc - it's ridiculous to expect ADP to average 5+ ypc again. 1 TD per game seems reasonable, a bit higher than last year. 1.5 catches per game. 10 ypc = 15 yds receiving per game. 0 TDs252 carries for 1134 yards, 14 TDs21 catches for 210 yds, 0 TDsNote: personally, I think ADP is the most explosive player in the NFL right now. As such, he should get more than 19.5 touches per game. But I also think Childress is an idiot, so who knows what will happen?

No way this beast gets only 252 carries.

If they're smart, they limit him and make it a goal to keep him lower than 300 carries, like Portis was in Denver. If he misses a few games under those circumstances (which most people, including me, predict he will), 252 carries seems dead on.I don't directly project injuries into my numbers - that's too shaky for me unless the guy's entering the season injured and I know for a fact he's going to miss games. I project a full 16-game season and then on draft day I'll adjust for injury risk. Here's my 16-game projection:290-1595-2040-420-2

Do you really think he'll get 5.5 yards per carry in 2008? How many RBs have been able to do that?

Not many. But he did it last year as a rookie, averaging 5.6. Do you really think his average will drop that much considering his development as a player and the Vikings improved team?

 

[Jason Wood]

Wouldn't be surprised to see him miss 2-4 games this year. As such, I'll base my projections on a 14-game season.

18 carries per game x 4.5 yds per carry = 81 yds per game. Yes, I see him regressing on ypc - it's ridiculous to expect ADP to average 5+ ypc again. 1 TD per game seems reasonable, a bit higher than last year.

1.5 catches per game. 10 ypc = 15 yds receiving per game. 0 TDs

252 carries for 1134 yards, 14 TDs

21 catches for 210 yds, 0 TDs

Note: personally, I think ADP is the most explosive player in the NFL right now. As such, he should get more than 19.5 touches per game. But I also think Childress is an idiot, so who knows what will happen?

No way this beast gets only 252 carries.

If they're smart, they limit him and make it a goal to keep him lower than 300 carries, like Portis was in Denver. If he misses a few games under those circumstances (which most people, including me, predict he will), 252 carries seems dead on.I don't directly project injuries into my numbers - that's too shaky for me unless the guy's entering the season injured and I know for a fact he's going to miss games. I project a full 16-game season and then on draft day I'll adjust for injury risk.

Here's my 16-game projection:

290-1595-20

40-420-2

Do you really think he'll get 5.5 yards per carry in 2008? How many RBs have been able to do that?

The list is short and distinguished as you might imagine:RBs with 240+ carries, 5.5+ YPC, same season

O.J. Simpson --- 1973 --- 332 rushes, for 2003 yards YPC = 6.03

O.J. Simpson --- 1975 --- 329 rushes, for 1817 yards YPC = 5.52

Barry Sanders --- 1994 --- 331 rushes, for 1883 yards YPC = 5.69

Barry Sanders --- 1997 --- 335 rushes, for 2053 yards YPC = 6.13

Clinton Portis --- 2002 --- 273 rushes, for 1508 yards YPC = 5.52

Eric Dickerson --- 1984 --- 379 rushes, for 2105 yards YPC = 5.55

Jim Brown --- 1963 --- 291 rushes, for 1863 yards YPC = 6.40

 

[theredoz]

1400yrds 10tds

300 rec yrds 2tds

 

[JMon348]

1728-16

 

[Michael Fox Fan]

Wouldn't be surprised to see him miss 2-4 games this year. As such, I'll base my projections on a 14-game season.18 carries per game x 4.5 yds per carry = 81 yds per game. Yes, I see him regressing on ypc - it's ridiculous to expect ADP to average 5+ ypc again. 1 TD per game seems reasonable, a bit higher than last year. 1.5 catches per game. 10 ypc = 15 yds receiving per game. 0 TDs252 carries for 1134 yards, 14 TDs21 catches for 210 yds, 0 TDsNote: personally, I think ADP is the most explosive player in the NFL right now. As such, he should get more than 19.5 touches per game. But I also think Childress is an idiot, so who knows what will happen?

No way this beast gets only 252 carries.

If they're smart, they limit him and make it a goal to keep him lower than 300 carries, like Portis was in Denver. If he misses a few games under those circumstances (which most people, including me, predict he will), 252 carries seems dead on.I don't directly project injuries into my numbers - that's too shaky for me unless the guy's entering the season injured and I know for a fact he's going to miss games. I project a full 16-game season and then on draft day I'll adjust for injury risk. Here's my 16-game projection:290-1595-2040-420-2

Do you really think he'll get 5.5 yards per carry in 2008? How many RBs have been able to do that?

Not many. But he did it last year as a rookie, averaging 5.6. Do you really think his average will drop that much considering his development as a player and the Vikings improved team?

It wouldn't shock me to see his average fall to 4.5-5.0 per carry. In fact, that seems like the most likely outcome, particularly considering that only 7 times in history has a RB carried more than 240 times for > 5.5 yds per carry. As an ADP owner, it would be great to be wrong on this.But considering history and ADPs performance in the 2nd half of '07, I'd say the burden of proof isn't on me. Good discussion though, this is why I love the player spotlight threads!

 

[Whiplash Inc.]

275 carries, 1370 yds rushing, 40 catches, 330 yds receiving, 14 total TDs.

 

[Michael Fox Fan]

275 carries, 1370 yds rushing, 40 catches, 330 yds receiving, 14 total TDs.

Why do you expect him to get twice as many catches as last year? Is Childress that smart of a coach?

 

[Chaos Commish]

AD is special.

For posterity.

350 2000+ 25

30 250 3

He may never be better than in his second year. He just needs to stay healthy.

 

[T Bell]

AD is special.

For posterity.

350 2000+ 25

30 250 3

He may never be better than in his second year. He just needs to stay healthy.

I think those numbers are too high, but that's along the lines of my thinking too. He's something special and his legs are still very young. This is the kind of guy you project for very big things, meaning historically big things.

 

[Banger]

Wouldn't be surprised to see him miss 2-4 games this year. As such, I'll base my projections on a 14-game season.18 carries per game x 4.5 yds per carry = 81 yds per game. Yes, I see him regressing on ypc - it's ridiculous to expect ADP to average 5+ ypc again. 1 TD per game seems reasonable, a bit higher than last year. 1.5 catches per game. 10 ypc = 15 yds receiving per game. 0 TDs252 carries for 1134 yards, 14 TDs21 catches for 210 yds, 0 TDsNote: personally, I think ADP is the most explosive player in the NFL right now. As such, he should get more than 19.5 touches per game. But I also think Childress is an idiot, so who knows what will happen?

No way this beast gets only 252 carries.

If they're smart, they limit him and make it a goal to keep him lower than 300 carries, like Portis was in Denver. If he misses a few games under those circumstances (which most people, including me, predict he will), 252 carries seems dead on.I don't directly project injuries into my numbers - that's too shaky for me unless the guy's entering the season injured and I know for a fact he's going to miss games. I project a full 16-game season and then on draft day I'll adjust for injury risk. Here's my 16-game projection:290-1595-2040-420-2

Do you really think he'll get 5.5 yards per carry in 2008? How many RBs have been able to do that?

Not many. But he did it last year as a rookie, averaging 5.6. Do you really think his average will drop that much considering his development as a player and the Vikings improved team?

Sometimes the stars align and everything breaks right and you end up with a season he ended up with last year. All it takes is for a lineman or two to get hurt, a couple less long runs, facing tougher defenses, a nagging injury, etc. for a big swing in ypc. Look at LT from '03 to '04, in '03 he averaged 5.3 ypc and the following year he averaged 3.9. LT was still a tremendous back and two years later broke the TD record but things happen within a season that cause unexpected results even for the best of the best. To expect or predict a 5.0+ ypc is pretty lofty regardless the talent level.

 

[David Yudkin]

My conceptual question is how to factor in two gynormous games (50-520-6 total rushing yards with a 10.4 ypc) compared to 12 other games with 188-821-6 with a 4.36 ypc.

For comparison, there were only 41 other RBs in the league that had 520 rushing yards ON THE SEASON last year . . . and there were 558 players that played RB in the NFL last year.

 

[gianmarco]

I actually think you have to factor it in because he's capable of putting up 1-2 games/year like that, esp. against soft defenses. I think he could have potentially had even more games like that last year if his carries weren't limited in a couple of them. There were a couple games he had 100 or so yards at halftime and then didn't get the ball the 2nd half. How would it factor in if he had 4 big games like that instead of just 2? Anomalies or something to be expected?

 

[Michael Fox Fan]

I actually think you have to factor it in because he's capable of putting up 1-2 games/year like that, esp. against soft defenses. I think he could have potentially had even more games like that last year if his carries weren't limited in a couple of them. There were a couple games he had 100 or so yards at halftime and then didn't get the ball the 2nd half. How would it factor in if he had 4 big games like that instead of just 2? Anomalies or something to be expected?

Completely agree, it has to be factored in. However, you also have to factor in historical context - and when only 7 RB seasons in history have ended with > 240 carries and 5.5+ ypc, it should give pause for concern. The dude is still going to be money if he gets 4.5-5.0 ypc.

 

[AnonymousBob]

Is ADP really that special? His ypc was 5.6 - Chester Taylor's ypc was 5.4

I think his talent is quite remarkable but imo he's actually being overrated.

Why is Peterson suddenly going to get the bulk of the carries when he split with Taylor last season? What has changed?

 

[David Yudkin]

Is ADP really that special? His ypc was 5.6 - Chester Taylor's ypc was 5.4I think his talent is quite remarkable but imo he's actually being overrated. Why is Peterson suddenly going to get the bulk of the carries when he split with Taylor last season? What has changed?

ADP played 8 "healthy" games (Weeks 1-9), posting:158 carries, 1036 rushing yards, 8 rushing TD (6.56 ypc)In his other 6 games playing "dinged up:"80 carries, 305 rushing yards, 4 TD (3.81 ypc)He averaged almost 20 carries a game pre injury and 13 carries a game after.Even including his injury, ADP averaged 100 yards from scrimmage and a TD per game. And that's WITH Taylor getting a lot of work.

 

[AnonymousBob]

My conceptual question is how to factor in two gynormous games (50-520-6 total rushing yards with a 10.4 ypc) compared to 12 other games with 188-821-6 with a 4.36 ypc.For comparison, there were only 41 other RBs in the league that had 520 rushing yards ON THE SEASON last year . . . and there were 558 players that played RB in the NFL last year.

Is ADP really that special? His ypc was 5.6 - Chester Taylor's ypc was 5.4I think his talent is quite remarkable but imo he's actually being overrated. Why is Peterson suddenly going to get the bulk of the carries when he split with Taylor last season? What has changed?

ADP played 8 "healthy" games (Weeks 1-9), posting:158 carries, 1036 rushing yards, 8 rushing TD (6.56 ypc)In his other 6 games playing "dinged up:"80 carries, 305 rushing yards, 4 TD (3.81 ypc)He averaged almost 20 carries a game pre injury and 13 carries a game after.Even including his injury, ADP averaged 100 yards from scrimmage and a TD per game. And that's WITH Taylor getting a lot of work.

I think you answered your own conceptual question. He was "dinged up" and that's what caused the slowdown.

 

[T Bell]

My conceptual question is how to factor in two gynormous games (50-520-6 total rushing yards with a 10.4 ypc) compared to 12 other games with 188-821-6 with a 4.36 ypc.For comparison, there were only 41 other RBs in the league that had 520 rushing yards ON THE SEASON last year . . . and there were 558 players that played RB in the NFL last year.

Unless you think he can't replicate those efforts (and by that I mean, not yard-for-yard, but rather with somewhat similarly gynormous efforts), then I think you just project what he did last year in a regular, healthy game and sprinkle the gynormous efforts on top.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

ADP is an immense talent. He makes me hit the rewind button on my DVR as much as any player in the NFL. If he proves able to handle the workload, he has the ability to break records in the NFL. Honestly, how do you not give this guy 25 touches/game? Until he actually logs 350+ in an NFL season, some small amount of uncertainty exists re: his durability, but his IMO his upside is in the Emmitt/Faulk/LT stratosphere.

332 carries for 1600 yards, 45 catches for 400 yards, 17 total TDs

 

[The Jacket]

I've got Peterson down for another injury, this time one that keeps him sidelined for a couple of games (aided by the fact Minnesota understands they have Chester Taylor and the best run-blocking OL in the NFL).

When healthy, I've got him right at 5ypc and a TD per game. All told:

200 or so carries

1000 or so yards

12 TDs

24 catches

250 yards

2 TDs

I don't own the kid, but I'd love to be wrong. The guy has 22 carry, 5.5+ypc and 1.5 TD/game potential over 16 games if he can just avoid those nasty, awkward hits to legs.

 

[jurb26]

Peterson looks like he is going to let a lot of people down this year IMO. Seems like the Calvin Johnson syndrome to me. People are so infatuated with their physical abilities that they want to project consistently on the high end of the stats. There is very little to not like about Peterson, but still I think a lot of these projections are just too high. Minn already has the best running game in the NFL. In reality, the only place for it to go is down. Minn out rushed the 2nd place team by nearly 300 yds and as a team they had far and away the highest YPA at 5.3. As noted previously, Peterson's YPA was impressive, but it was really not all that different than the sort of success Minn was having running the ball with Taylor or as a whole. All 3 of Minn RBs had a 5.4 YPA or better. People also seem intent on placing a significantly greater work load on Peterson and I fail to see why. As we have already seen, Minn already has the far and away best running game in the NFL doing things the way they are. Why change it? Furthermore, Peterson didn't manage to stay healthy and as his greatest supporters have already pointed out that cost them and Minn down the stretch. Why would Minn then risk beating Peterson up when they don't need to and they look to be a favorite for the playoffs and the Division title? I don't think they will. I think they will again platoon both Taylor and Peterson, at times if Peterson proves to be the hot hand giving him more work in isolated games. Defenses are going to make it there sole mission to stop this running game. Now while that by no means they are going to be successful, eventually team will come along that will be able to. When that happens, it will be up to Jackson and the passing game to win the game. All in all, Peterson is in a great situation. He has probably the best run blocking line in the NFL in front of him and an offensive scheme dedicated to running the ball. If the backfield wasn't crowded up by Taylor and/or we knew Peterson would be truly featured I think we would be looking at LT/Holmes/LJ type numbers. Seeing as that isn't the case I would project:

260 carries, 1275 yds, 11 TDs

25 receptions, 260 yds, 1 TD

 

[Ned]

I've got Peterson down for another injury, this time one that keeps him sidelined for a couple of games (aided by the fact Minnesota understands they have Chester Taylor and the best run-blocking OL in the NFL).

When healthy, I've got him right at 5ypc and a TD per game. All told:

200 or so carries

1000 or so yards

12 TDs

24 catches

250 yards

2 TDs

I don't own the kid, but I'd love to be wrong. The guy has 22 carry, 5.5+ypc and 1.5 TD/game potential over 16 games if he can just avoid those nasty, awkward hits to legs.

can you let us know the weeks he's going to be hurt so I know when to trade for chester?in all seriousness, this kid's talent is something you don't want to see on someone else's roster. he set the league on fire as a rookie. i can't see him regressing all that much with the same oline, an offseason to get stronger, smarter, etc.

310/1705/19

35/385/4

 

[FreeBaGeL]

The difference between AD and Chester's ypc is that Chester got a lot of his good runs in good situations like 3rd and longs late in games. In games where Chester actually got significant carries he was only 1 for 3 on churning out decent efforts:

@Chi: 22-83

Oak: 22-164

@NYG: 31-77

 

[LHUCKS]

This is still going to be a 2 back system of sorts. I expect to see Peterson get 20 cariries and CT as the RB2 to get at least 10+ carries a game. I'll knock it down to 19 carries a game just to keep it under 300. They have a great OL, the only question for me is that they lost Tony Richardson at FB, he won't be easy to replace.288 carries, 1,400 yds rushing, 32 catches, 300 yds receiving, 15 total TD.

I would also add that Peterson still has a fair amount of injury risk which I factor into my projections...I would draft him #2, but I wouldn't feel warm and fuzzy about it...I would definitely make it a priority to draft Chester.

 

[radballs]

This is still going to be a 2 back system of sorts. I expect to see Peterson get 20 cariries and CT as the RB2 to get at least 10+ carries a game. I'll knock it down to 19 carries a game just to keep it under 300. They have a great OL, the only question for me is that they lost Tony Richardson at FB, he won't be easy to replace.288 carries, 1,400 yds rushing, 32 catches, 300 yds receiving, 15 total TD.

I would also add that Peterson still has a fair amount of injury risk which I factor into my projections...I would draft him #2, but I wouldn't feel warm and fuzzy about it...I would definitely make it a priority to draft Chester.

#2 in non-ppr. But, I still think he takes a back seat to Jackson in ppr leagues. imo right now ....

 

[LHUCKS]

This is still going to be a 2 back system of sorts. I expect to see Peterson get 20 cariries and CT as the RB2 to get at least 10+ carries a game. I'll knock it down to 19 carries a game just to keep it under 300. They have a great OL, the only question for me is that they lost Tony Richardson at FB, he won't be easy to replace.288 carries, 1,400 yds rushing, 32 catches, 300 yds receiving, 15 total TD.

I would also add that Peterson still has a fair amount of injury risk which I factor into my projections...I would draft him #2, but I wouldn't feel warm and fuzzy about it...I would definitely make it a priority to draft Chester.

#2 in non-ppr. But, I still think he takes a back seat to Jackson in ppr leagues. imo right now ....

No question...good clarification. Im even flip flopping on Jackson vs. Peterson in non PPR, I just have this injury feeling.