Player Spotlight: Anthony Gonzalez (1 Viewer)

[Jason Wood]

2009 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. Last year, we published more than 120 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters. This year will be no different.

Each week we will post a list of players to be discussed. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discussion expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Anthony Gonzalez, WR, Indianapolis Colts

Player Page Link: Anthony Gonzalez Player Page

Each article will include:

Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member

Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads
FBG Projections
Consensus Member ProjectionsThe Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

Focus commentary on the player in question, and your expectations for said player
Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
To be included in the final synopsis and consensus outlook, you MUST provide projections for the playerProjections should include (at a minimum):

For QBs: Attempts, Completions, Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDsNow let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

 

[pizzatyme]

As a Colts Homer I just am not that impressed with Gonzalez. I know he will have plenty of opportunities but I don't think his talent will be enough to take advantage. I've seen him going before several WR1s that I'd much rather have.

65/855/5

 

[RookieBlitz]

I believe that Gonzalez will be on many championship teams in 2009.

Currently he has an ADP of WR25, and the opportunity is there with Harrison gone, a soft schedule, and Peyton Manning as his quarterback. A top 15 finish is not out of the question

Draft with confidence:

71 rec, 1053 yards, 8 TD

 

[Tanner9919]

I believe that Gonzalez will be on many championship teams in 2009. Currently he has an ADP of WR25, and the opportunity is there with Harrison gone, a soft schedule, and Peyton Manning as his quarterback. A top 15 finish is not out of the questionDraft with confidence:71 rec, 1053 yards, 8 TD

that's a realistic projection...

 

[JDub15]

I agree that Gonzalez is a low cost, high value pick this season. He's been fantastic on a per-play basis for each of the last two years, if a few more targets come his way he'll have a great fantasy season.

The question is, where who do Marvin Harrison's 107 Targets go to? Gonzalez had 79 targets last season. We can probably estimate that Gonzalez will at least receive 35 of those targets, that puts him in line for:

114 Targets, 62% Catch Rate, 14.7 YPC, 1029 Receiving Yards, 8 TDs.

62% Catch Rate is below his fantastic season average of 72.5%, but I'm betting it drops 10% since he'll be facing number one and two CBs now.

 

[pizzatyme]

Not sure where the low cost idea is coming from, but I've seen him going off the board as WR 15. At WR15 where is the upside?

 

[JAA]

Year	Age	Tm	Pos	No.	G	GS	QBrec	Cmp	Att	Cmp%	Yds	TD	TD%	Int	Int%	Lng	Y/A	AY/A	Y/C	Y/G	Rate	Sk	Yds	NY/A	ANY/A	Sk%	AV	CarAV1998	22	IND	QB	18	16	16	3-13-0	326	575	56.7	3739	26	4.5	28	4.9	78	6.5	5.2	11.5	233.7	71.2	22	109	6.1	4.8	3.7	11	1999*	23	IND	QB	18	16	16	13-3-0	331	533	62.1	4135	26	4.9	15	2.8	80	7.8	7.5	12.5	258.4	90.7	14	116	7.3	7.1	2.6	18	2000*	24	IND	QB	18	16	16	10-6-0	357	571	62.5	4413	33	5.8	15	2.6	78	7.7	7.7	12.4	275.8	94.7	20	131	7.2	7.2	3.4	18	2001	25	IND	QB	18	16	16	6-10-0	343	547	62.7	4131	26	4.8	23	4.2	86	7.6	6.6	12.0	258.2	84.1	29	232	6.8	5.9	5.0	15	2002*	26	IND	QB	18	16	16	10-6-0	392	591	66.3	4200	27	4.6	19	3.2	69	7.1	6.6	10.7	262.5	88.8	23	145	6.6	6.1	3.7	15	2003*+	27	IND	QB	18	16	16	12-4-0	379	566	67.0	4267	29	5.1	10	1.8	79	7.5	7.8	11.3	266.7	99.0	18	107	7.1	7.3	3.1	18	2004*+	28	IND	QB	18	16	16	12-4-0	336	497	67.6	4557	49	9.9	10	2.0	80	9.2	10.2	13.6	284.8	121.1	13	101	8.7	9.8	2.5	21	2005*+	29	IND	QB	18	16	16	14-2-0	305	453	67.3	3747	28	6.2	10	2.2	80	8.3	8.5	12.3	234.2	104.1	17	81	7.8	8.0	3.6	18	2006*	30	IND	QB	18	16	16	12-4-0	362	557	65.0	4397	31	5.6	9	1.6	68	7.9	8.3	12.1	274.8	101.0	14	86	7.5	7.9	2.5	20	2007*	31	IND	QB	18	16	16	13-3-0	337	515	65.4	4040	31	6.0	14	2.7	73	7.8	7.8	12.0	252.5	98.0	21	124	7.3	7.3	3.9	17	2008*+	32	IND	QB	18	16	16	12-4-0	371	555	66.8	4002	27	4.9	12	2.2	75	7.2	7.2	10.8	250.1	95.0	14	86	6.9	6.9	2.5	16	Career					176	176	117-59-0	3839	5960	64.4	45628	333	5.6	165	2.8	86	7.7	7.5	11.9	259.3	94.7	205	1318	7.2	7.1	3.3	187	144

Thats a lot of completions for Wayne, Clark, and then Gonzalez

 

[JohnnyU]

Gonzalez is the third option on that team as the best case scenario. Look for Dallas Clark to finally bust the 1000 yd mark, which is fantastic for a TE. I look for Clark's numbers to be around 1100 yds and 10 tds, and AG's numbers around 800/7.

 

[Fins Fan]

Slot receiver being forced to play the #2 spot. Period. That being said, I liked him about 4 months ago when I thought his ADP would be in the 6th or 7th round. No way I touch him in the 5th. I can easily think of 25 WRs I'd rather have.

 

[rzrback77]

There is good news and bad news concerning Anthony Gonzalez and his prospects for 09. The bad news is that he has finished as the 61st and 45th ranked WR in his first two seasons, even while playing for the high flying Colts. Even finishing as low as he has previously, he has a current ADP of WR25 and 67 overall. Now for the good news, Marvin Harrison was cut. The Colts did not throw up to par for the first half of 08, so their passing game should improve this year. Gonzalez has averaged a 72% catch percentage and seemed to be a key figure on third downs a year ago. His QB Peyton Manning is about as solid as they come.

Anthony Gonzalez has been very reliable and is ready for this opportunity. He will be targeted much more often and if he can manage even close to his historic catch percentage, he should be able to perform at or above his current ADP.

A Gonzalez 110 targets 75 catches 68% 975 yards and 7 TDs

 

[JAA]

Gonzalez is the third option on that team as the best case scenario. Look for Dallas Clark to finally bust the 1000 yd mark, which is fantastic for a TE. I look for Clark's numbers to be around 1100 yds and 10 tds, and AG's numbers around 800/7.

Wouldnt it be safer to say 'third option on that team as the worst case scenario'? He could certainly lead the team in targets

 

[Ray_T]

Gonzalez is the third option on that team as the best case scenario. Look for Dallas Clark to finally bust the 1000 yd mark, which is fantastic for a TE. I look for Clark's numbers to be around 1100 yds and 10 tds, and AG's numbers around 800/7.

Wouldnt it be safer to say 'third option on that team as the worst case scenario'? He could certainly lead the team in targets

Well, the targets that went to Harrison last year need to be split among the remaining players. I would guess that most of these go to Gonzales as he is a WR. Clark will get a few extra throws, but I doubt it will amount to much.

 

[Biabreakable]

Not sure if Jason hates it when I comment in these threads without projection or not but just wanted to add a few things I think are significant.

1. AG is a lot better player than I think people give him credit for. He was better than Ginn in tOSU but never got the credit for it. Same thing seems to be lingering now in his pro career.

2. From day 1 AG was sitting next to Manning.. asking him questions.. doing whatever he could to learn what Manning wants him to do.. a player with similar work ethic. charecter and outlook towards the game as Manning. They seemed like peas in a pod from day 1.

3. Harrison and Wayne did not reach thier potential in the Colts offense until thier 4th season. Showing that it takes time before these guys get Mannings confidence and learn the offense well enough to explode. AG is ahead of both of thier learning curves right now.

4. AG is a complete WR and can play any WR position and run all the routes.

He will be a WR2 in FF with WR1 upside if things go his way. He can be drafted as a WR3 or 4. Hard to argue with that bargain.

 

[finito]

Gonzalez is the third option on that team as the best case scenario. Look for Dallas Clark to finally bust the 1000 yd mark, which is fantastic for a TE. I look for Clark's numbers to be around 1100 yds and 10 tds, and AG's numbers around 800/7.

Wouldnt it be safer to say 'third option on that team as the worst case scenario'? He could certainly lead the team in targets

Well, the targets that went to Harrison last year need to be split among the remaining players. I would guess that most of these go to Gonzales as he is a WR. Clark will get a few extra throws, but I doubt it will amount to much.

Wayne will have a few more targets. He was battling a nagging injury last season and should easily be the best Indy reciever. I can't see Gonzeles getting as many targets as Wayne or Clark.