Player Spotlight: Bernard Berrian (1 Viewer)

[Jason Wood]

2008 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. Last year, we published more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters. This year will be no different.

Each week we will post a list of players to be discussed. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discussion expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Bernard Berrian, WR, Minnesota Vikings

Player Page Link: Bernard Berrian Player Page

Each article will include:

Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads
FBG Projections
Consensus Member ProjectionsThe Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

Focus commentary on the player in question, and your expectations for said player
Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
To be included in the final synopsis and consensus outlook, you MUST provide projections for the playerProjections should include (at a minimum):

For QBs: Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDsNow let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

 

[Andy Dufresne]

I wouldn't expect much more than he got last year. Maybe a few more yards.

70/1000/7

 

[Banger]

65-825-5

Last year he had 70-948-5 and although it's hard to believe he probably went to a worse QB'ing situation than he had last year. One thing that Grossman did pretty well was the bomb and the jury is still out on TJax's strength's as a QB. There's not too much to get excited about.

 

[jurrassic]

65-825-5Last year he had 70-948-5 and although it's hard to believe he probably went to a worse QB'ing situation than he had last year. One thing that Grossman did pretty well was the bomb and the jury is still out on TJax's strength's as a QB. There's not too much to get excited about.

I agree with this completely. Worse qb situation, an offense even more dependent on the run. Grossman had a connection with Berrian and a good touch on the long ball. Berrian isn't exactly the most accomplised route runner so I will be anxious to see how he handles the west coast system.

 

[shadyridr]

Not draft worthy

 

[Andy Dufresne]

The anti-Jackson rhetoric is approaching ludicrous levels.

 

[IndyHavoc]

I wouldn't expect much more than he got last year. Maybe a few more yards.70/1000/7

Not draft worthy

Wow, and I thought I was having a tough time projecting Berrian :X If this is representative, I'm not alone. Personally I think he'll have increased value in a PPR league, but overall end up about the same.92 / 920 / 6The worm can really turn if there is a sudden (unforseen) progression in QB play in Minny. It does happen, but I don't know of any predictor out there pointing at Minny. /shrug.

 

[dmac37]

Berrian may be WR#1A at best on a run dominate team, I can see him being used as a long ball decoy more than a consistent target. As of now I think Rice has more upside than Berrian.

Chicago passed 569 times in 2007, surprisingly 10th highest in the league.

The league average was 532 attempts on the season last year.

Minnesota passed 432 times in 2007, 32nd - dead last

Hard to see his numbers improving, as he was the #1 target on a pass heavy team last year.

 

[eric rymer]

this one is pretty tough to gauge. I think they'll use the long ball to set up the run. I expect to see alot of long catches but not alot of rec for him.

65-1050-7

 

[H.K.]

Berrian may be WR#1A at best on a run dominate team, I can see him being used as a long ball decoy more than a consistent target. As of now I think Rice has more upside than Berrian.Chicago passed 569 times in 2007, surprisingly 10th highest in the league.The league average was 532 attempts on the season last year.Minnesota passed 432 times in 2007, 32nd - dead last Hard to see his numbers improving, as he was the #1 target on a pass heavy team last year.

You forgot to post the rest of my data from that threadrill down to look at how the WR's were used by Berrian's old and new team and it doesn't get much better. Last year Vikings WR1 Bobby Wade had 83 targets for 54 recepts 654 yards 3 TD's....The #2 WR in MINN was targeted 61 times.Berrian had 127 targets last year as a Bear....and the #2 WR in CHI had 81 targets, nearly as many as the Vikings #1.With the Minn OL, ADP, and D, coupled with QB Jackson's experience and ability, I just don't see Vikings offense changing much for Berrian to have enough targets/receptions to be of dependable/consistent value. 52 recepts728 yards4 TD

 

[Cenobite]

this one is pretty tough to gauge. I think they'll use the long ball to set up the run. I expect to see alot of long catches but not alot of rec for him. 65-1050-7

I agree with this projection. I can see Berrian with days like 4/100/1 and 3/60/0. Remember, a player that averages 65 yds a game will have over a 1,000 yds in a year. Just by virtue of being a #1 receiver will almost get you to a 1,000 yds. Just look at Roddy White.

 

[H.K.]

this one is pretty tough to gauge. I think they'll use the long ball to set up the run. I expect to see alot of long catches but not alot of rec for him. 65-1050-7

I agree with this projection. I can see Berrian with days like 4/100/1 and 3/60/0. Remember, a player that averages 65 yds a game will have over a 1,000 yds in a year. Just by virtue of being a #1 receiver will almost get you to a 1,000 yds. Just look at Roddy White.

OK, look at Roddy White. He had 137 targets last year.The Falcons passed 555 times for 3293 yards last season.The Vikings threw 432 times for 2745 yards.Over 120 more attempts and 500 yards worth of stats available for Roddy White in Atlanta compared to Berrian in Minnesota.

 

[Andy Dufresne]

this one is pretty tough to gauge. I think they'll use the long ball to set up the run. I expect to see alot of long catches but not alot of rec for him.

65-1050-7

I agree with this projection. I can see Berrian with days like 4/100/1 and 3/60/0. Remember, a player that averages 65 yds a game will have over a 1,000 yds in a year. Just by virtue of being a #1 receiver will almost get you to a 1,000 yds. Just look at Roddy White.

OK, look at Roddy White. He had 137 targets last year.The Falcons passed 555 times for 3293 yards last season.

The Vikings threw 432 times for 2745 yards.

Over 120 more attempts and 500 yards worth of stats available for Roddy White in Atlanta compared to Berrian in Minnesota.

Expect the Vikings to pass considerably more than they did last year. I'm not saying top 10, but they're not going to completely handcuff Jackson like they did at the beginning of the season.Compare Jackson's stats for games 1-8 vs. 9-16.

In games 9-16 Jackson had a QB rating of 82.9, going 120/184 (65.2 %) with a td/int ratio of 7/7.

 

[Banger]

The anti-Jackson rhetoric is approaching ludicrous levels.

He didn't do much to inspire confidence heading into this season. Teams completely sold out to stop ADP at the end of the year, daring Jackson to throw and he still failed to inspire. I think he will have the opportunity due to the running game and teams daring him to throw but I don't know if he can do it.

 

[Andy Dufresne]

The anti-Jackson rhetoric is approaching ludicrous levels.

He didn't do much to inspire confidence heading into this season. Teams completely sold out to stop ADP at the end of the year, daring Jackson to throw and he still failed to inspire. I think he will have the opportunity due to the running game and teams daring him to throw but I don't know if he can do it.

I think you'll find that was more because of Brad Childress than TJ.

 

[Banger]

The anti-Jackson rhetoric is approaching ludicrous levels.

He didn't do much to inspire confidence heading into this season. Teams completely sold out to stop ADP at the end of the year, daring Jackson to throw and he still failed to inspire. I think he will have the opportunity due to the running game and teams daring him to throw but I don't know if he can do it.

I think you'll find that was more because of Brad Childress than TJ.

Is there a big reason to think that will change? They will have a dominating defense and a good running game, do you think that they'll air it out much more than last year? Can he be counted on to air it out? I'll admit that I've only seen him play a handful of times and when I did he didn't play particularly well.I have Rice in a keeper league so I want Jackson to do well but between him and the coaching philosophy I don't have much hope.

 

[Warhogs]

I don't expect much to change in Berrian's numbers. The Vikings will most likely throw a lot less than what the Bears did last year but Berrian may have more big play potential since many teams will be keying to stop the Vikings running game.

I will pencil him in for 63-895-8.

 

[H.K.]

this one is pretty tough to gauge. I think they'll use the long ball to set up the run. I expect to see alot of long catches but not alot of rec for him.

65-1050-7

I agree with this projection. I can see Berrian with days like 4/100/1 and 3/60/0. Remember, a player that averages 65 yds a game will have over a 1,000 yds in a year. Just by virtue of being a #1 receiver will almost get you to a 1,000 yds. Just look at Roddy White.

OK, look at Roddy White. He had 137 targets last year.The Falcons passed 555 times for 3293 yards last season.

The Vikings threw 432 times for 2745 yards.

Over 120 more attempts and 500 yards worth of stats available for Roddy White in Atlanta compared to Berrian in Minnesota.

Expect the Vikings to pass considerably more than they did last year. I'm not saying top 10, but they're not going to completely handcuff Jackson like they did at the beginning of the season.Compare Jackson's stats for games 1-8 vs. 9-16.

In games 9-16 Jackson had a QB rating of 82.9, going 120/184 (65.2 %) with a td/int ratio of 7/7.

The final 8 games of the season saw the Viking pass 210 times, fewer than the 222 attempts in the first 8 games.

If you extrapolate Jackson's 26.2 attempts per game average for the 7 complete games he played, the Vikings would have averaged 420 attempts on the year.

As a team, they averaged about 185 yards passing and less than one TD pass a game for the second half of the year.

Those numbers are all anemic.

In order for Berrian to have fantasy relevance, the Vikings will need to increase attempts by a ton (not just a handful a week) OR Berrian will need to be the overwhelming most targeted receiver. Right now there is no evidence to suggest either shift will occur.

 

[Andy Dufresne]

The anti-Jackson rhetoric is approaching ludicrous levels.

He didn't do much to inspire confidence heading into this season. Teams completely sold out to stop ADP at the end of the year, daring Jackson to throw and he still failed to inspire. I think he will have the opportunity due to the running game and teams daring him to throw but I don't know if he can do it.

I think you'll find that was more because of Brad Childress than TJ.

Is there a big reason to think that will change? They will have a dominating defense and a good running game, do you think that they'll air it out much more than last year? Can he be counted on to air it out? I'll admit that I've only seen him play a handful of times and when I did he didn't play particularly well.I have Rice in a keeper league so I want Jackson to do well but between him and the coaching philosophy I don't have much hope.

Like I linked above - check out the difference between games 1-8 vs. games 9-16. They will HAVE to air it out more to keep from having the defenses stack the box like they did last year.I think he could easily put up Jay Cutler or Philip Rivers type numbers. And they will be pretty evenly spread between Rice and Berrian, hence my prediction that Berrian won't see much of a dropoff from last year's numbers, with a couple more TD's thrown in.

 

[Andy Dufresne]

The final 8 games of the season saw the Viking pass 210 times, fewer than the 222 attempts in the first 8 games.

If you extrapolate Jackson's 26.2 attempts per game average for the 7 complete games he played, the Vikings would have averaged 420 attempts on the year.

As a team, they averaged about 185 yards passing and less than one TD pass a game for the second half of the year.

Those numbers are all anemic.

In order for Berrian to have fantasy relevance, the Vikings will need to increase attempts by a ton (not just a handful a week) OR Berrian will need to be the overwhelming most targeted receiver. Right now there is no evidence to suggest either shift will occur.

Stop going back to what the Vikings did as a team last year (Jackson only threw 12 passes week 9 and then got hurt and didn't even play in week 10) and look at Jackson's progression in the second half of the season. Week 12 skews those numbers too since that was the week they destroyed the Giants and thus didn't even have to pass.Even if you include week 12, Jackson sill attempted 26 passes a game which extrapolates out to about 416 attempts. It's not beyond reason to expect that the Vikings will throw at least 2-3 times more per game, which puts Jackson up at near the 460 and 467 that Rivers and Cutler threw last year.

 

[Banger]

The anti-Jackson rhetoric is approaching ludicrous levels.

He didn't do much to inspire confidence heading into this season. Teams completely sold out to stop ADP at the end of the year, daring Jackson to throw and he still failed to inspire. I think he will have the opportunity due to the running game and teams daring him to throw but I don't know if he can do it.

I think you'll find that was more because of Brad Childress than TJ.

Is there a big reason to think that will change? They will have a dominating defense and a good running game, do you think that they'll air it out much more than last year? Can he be counted on to air it out? I'll admit that I've only seen him play a handful of times and when I did he didn't play particularly well.I have Rice in a keeper league so I want Jackson to do well but between him and the coaching philosophy I don't have much hope.

Like I linked above - check out the difference between games 1-8 vs. games 9-16. They will HAVE to air it out more to keep from having the defenses stack the box like they did last year.I think he could easily put up Jay Cutler or Philip Rivers type numbers. And they will be pretty evenly spread between Rice and Berrian, hence my prediction that Berrian won't see much of a dropoff from last year's numbers, with a couple more TD's thrown in.

Even if you extrapolate his 5 best games at the end of the season (3 of which were vs. very poor defenses), you're talking 202 yards/game which would be good for 26th in the league. That's taking his best numbers of the year and extrapolating them from a small sample size. I do think the stars will be aligned for him due to a little better WR talent and a very good running game/line but while I think he'll improve I think we're looking 3000-3100 yards which is a 200-300 yard improvement over last year. I think they'll score a few more TD's though due to the progression of Rice and Berrian is always good for a few homeruns. I think we're still looking at the 17-18 range though.

 

[Andy Dufresne]

Even if you extrapolate his 5 best games at the end of the season (3 of which were vs. very poor defenses), you're talking 202 yards/game which would be good for 26th in the league. That's taking his best numbers of the year and extrapolating them from a small sample size. I do think the stars will be aligned for him due to a little better WR talent and a very good running game/line but while I think he'll improve I think we're looking 3000-3100 yards which is a 200-300 yard improvement over last year. I think they'll score a few more TD's though due to the progression of Rice and Berrian is always good for a few homeruns. I think we're still looking at the 17-18 range though.

He won't play against bad defenses this year?Other guys didn't play against bad defenses last year?

But anyway, we're not that far off in agreeing with each other. I said he'd have Rivers/Cutler type numbers. Given that, when you look at what Chris Chambers did in SD and what Marshall did in Denver, it's not a stretch to see that Berrian and Rice could both put up Chambers type numbers.

 

[H.K.]

The final 8 games of the season saw the Viking pass 210 times, fewer than the 222 attempts in the first 8 games.

If you extrapolate Jackson's 26.2 attempts per game average for the 7 complete games he played, the Vikings would have averaged 420 attempts on the year.

As a team, they averaged about 185 yards passing and less than one TD pass a game for the second half of the year.

Those numbers are all anemic.

In order for Berrian to have fantasy relevance, the Vikings will need to increase attempts by a ton (not just a handful a week) OR Berrian will need to be the overwhelming most targeted receiver. Right now there is no evidence to suggest either shift will occur.

Stop going back to what the Vikings did as a team last year (Jackson only threw 12 passes week 9 and then got hurt and didn't even play in week 10) and look at Jackson's progression in the second half of the season. Week 12 skews those numbers too since that was the week they destroyed the Giants and thus didn't even have to pass.Even if you include week 12, Jackson sill attempted 26 passes a game which extrapolates out to about 416 attempts. It's not beyond reason to expect that the Vikings will throw at least 2-3 times more per game, which puts Jackson up at near the 460 and 467 that Rivers and Cutler threw last year.

What matters is that the Vikings threw less with Jackson than they did without him. That is the importance of looking at team numbers both with and without Jackson. Assuming your projected increase of 460 attempts does occur, that still puts the Vikings in the bottom five for the entire NFL in attempts from last season....hardly a dramatic improvement.

It's the ABC's of the situation. Attempts lead to targets, targets lead to receptions, and receptions lead to stats.

According to FBG: 410 of 432 Vikings pass attempts from 2007 had identified targets (clock stoppage & throw aways probably omitted from being assigned to a receiver)

Here is how the 410 targets broke down:

RB 96

WR 253

TE 61

Last season 38% of passes didn't even go to WRs. Increasing TEAM attempts from 432 to 460 means of the extra 28 passes attempted, it is a fair expectation that roughly 17 or so will go to WR's.

Breaking it down even further, let's look at the WR's targets:

WR1 83 (19% of team targets)

WR2 61 (14% of team targets)

WR3 53 (12% of team targets)

WR4 & WR5 56 targets combined (13% of team targets)

17 additional WR targets split by the percentages above equate to an additional 3 targets to WR1 in Minny. Not much at all.

Berrian had 127 targets with Chicago last year. That represents over 50% of all WR targets in Minnesota last season!!!

Again: In order for Berrian to have fantasy relevance, the Vikings will need to increase attempts by a ton (not just a handful a week) OR Berrian will need to be the overwhelming most targeted receiver. Right now there is no evidence to suggest either shift will occur.

 

[JMon348]

67-900-7

 

[radballs]

64 receptions for 890 yards and 5 TDs

 

[The Man With No Name]

48 rec.

672 yds.

4 td's

Not a fan of his, and he is going to a run first team with a very good but young wr on the other side who the qb knows well and will likely look to as much or more than Berrian, imo.

 

[Andy Dufresne]

48 rec.672 yds.4 td'sNot a fan of his, and he is going to a run first team with a very good but young wr on the other side who the qb knows well and will likely look to as much or more than Berrian, imo.

If his numbers are that low, then he will be colossaly overpaid.

 

[Banger]

48 rec.672 yds.4 td'sNot a fan of his, and he is going to a run first team with a very good but young wr on the other side who the qb knows well and will likely look to as much or more than Berrian, imo.

If his numbers are that low, then he will be colossaly overpaid.

If his #'s are what you projected, 1000/7, it will still border on being colassaly overpaid (equates to about WR20).

 

[Andy Dufresne]

48 rec.672 yds.4 td'sNot a fan of his, and he is going to a run first team with a very good but young wr on the other side who the qb knows well and will likely look to as much or more than Berrian, imo.

If his numbers are that low, then he will be colossaly overpaid.

If his #'s are what you projected, 1000/7, it will still border on being colassaly overpaid (equates to about WR20).

I disagree. Those numbers would help the overall offensive production tremendously. He wouldn't make fantasy owners happy with those numbers, but the Vikings would be quite happy.

 

[H.K.]

48 rec.672 yds.4 td'sNot a fan of his, and he is going to a run first team with a very good but young wr on the other side who the qb knows well and will likely look to as much or more than Berrian, imo.

If his numbers are that low, then he will be colossaly overpaid.

If his #'s are what you projected, 1000/7, it will still border on being colassaly overpaid (equates to about WR20).

I disagree. Those numbers would help the overall offensive production tremendously. He wouldn't make fantasy owners happy with those numbers, but the Vikings would be quite happy.

If Berrian put up 1000/7 and his ADP remains in the mid-30's for WR's, I think both the Vikings and fantasy owners would be thrilled.Of course, one of the reasons for his low ADP is that Berrian has never had 1,000 yards receiving or scored 7 TD's in a season in his career. I'd love to see people attach a target number to their projections in this thread, and would like it even more if they broke down a distribution for the Minnesota WR passing game.

 

[by_the_sea_wannabe]

59 749 5

 

[-X-]

Good analysis here, makes me glad I wasn't able to pull off a trade for him last season. He'll make some outstanding clutch catches for sure, but then he'll flub the easy ones just as readily.

55/825/4

 

[jurb26]

Minn WR as a whole amassed only 1853 receiving yds and 9 TDs last year. Moreover, their leading WR only accounted for 647/3. I don't see that changing much if at all this year. I'm not prepared to give Berrian the benefit of the doubt and assume he will be the Minn leading WR. I'm going to reserve that for Rice (who still will struggle to reward FF owners).

45 reception, 575 yds, 3 TDs

 

[Andy Dufresne]

Minn WR as a whole amassed only 1853 receiving yds and 9 TDs last year. Moreover, their leading WR only accounted for 647/3. I don't see that changing much if at all this year. I'm not prepared to give Berrian the benefit of the doubt and assume he will be the Minn leading WR. I'm going to reserve that for Rice (who still will struggle to reward FF owners).

45 reception, 575 yds, 3 TDs

You think he'll do LESS than Bobby Wade did last year?

 

[jurb26]

Minn WR as a whole amassed only 1853 receiving yds and 9 TDs last year. Moreover, their leading WR only accounted for 647/3. I don't see that changing much if at all this year. I'm not prepared to give Berrian the benefit of the doubt and assume he will be the Minn leading WR. I'm going to reserve that for Rice (who still will struggle to reward FF owners).

45 reception, 575 yds, 3 TDs

You think he'll do LESS than Bobby Wade did last year?

Yes, I just told yo I think Rice will be the Minn leading WR..... try to pay attention.

 

[Andy Dufresne]

Minn WR as a whole amassed only 1853 receiving yds and 9 TDs last year. Moreover, their leading WR only accounted for 647/3. I don't see that changing much if at all this year. I'm not prepared to give Berrian the benefit of the doubt and assume he will be the Minn leading WR. I'm going to reserve that for Rice (who still will struggle to reward FF owners).

45 reception, 575 yds, 3 TDs

You think he'll do LESS than Bobby Wade did last year?

Yes, I just told yo I think Rice will be the Minn leading WR..... try to pay attention.

All right. I think Rice will put up Greg Jennings type numbers. But I still think Berrian will put up Berrian numbers.Which means that Jackson will put up Rivers numbers.

 

[BigJim®]

Berrian may be WR#1A at best on a run dominate team, I can see him being used as a long ball decoy more than a consistent target. As of now I think Rice has more upside than Berrian.

Totally agree here. Personally, I've seen one too many Chicago WR cast offs being targetted by the Vikings to fill a #2 WR need (Bernard Berrian, Bobby Wade, D'Wayne Bates, Marcus Robinson). Rice is ridiculously young and will hopefully bloom into the serious WR threat we've been praying for. With his lanky range, not to mention having the extra season of familiarity, I see him as a better safety valve for a young QB like Jackson. I actually like Berrian better than the other former Chicago WRs I mentioned, but let's be honest and admit this is not the best spot for a FA with his potential to land. There's no way Chilly allows Jackson to throw the ball all over the field when they have A.Peterson. 75/1000/6.

 

[H.K.]

Berrian may be WR#1A at best on a run dominate team, I can see him being used as a long ball decoy more than a consistent target. As of now I think Rice has more upside than Berrian.

Totally agree here. Personally, I've seen one too many Chicago WR cast offs being targetted by the Vikings to fill a #2 WR need (Bernard Berrian, Bobby Wade, D'Wayne Bates, Marcus Robinson). Rice is ridiculously young and will hopefully bloom into the serious WR threat we've been praying for. With his lanky range, not to mention having the extra season of familiarity, I see him as a better safety valve for a young QB like Jackson. I actually like Berrian better than the other former Chicago WRs I mentioned, but let's be honest and admit this is not the best spot for a FA with his potential to land. There's no way Chilly allows Jackson to throw the ball all over the field when they have A.Peterson.

75/1000/6.

This projection is a career high for Berrian in each category.

 

[Rockchild]

I think Berrian will put up similar numbers as last year. Berrian is a definite upgrade over Wade and, coupled with an improving Rice and hopefully an improved TJ, will be enough to better last years passing numbers to allow BB to reach those numbers. If TJ does not impress early, I think he'll be on a short leash and Frerotte will be brought in, who while not the best at this point, should be effective enough to put up respectable passing numbers.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

The Vikings are going to be a good team this year. They will be dominant on defense and have the best running game talent in the NFL (o-line and RBs). It doesn't matter if Tavaris Jackson plays well or not; he won't see too many 2nd half passing attempts this year. Berrian is also best suited for a #2 role in the NFL, and I think Sidney Rice is likely to surpass him in targets at some point in 2008.

55 catches for 775 yards and 4 TDs

 

[The Jacket]

55, 800, 5.

A good YPC, a couple of nice, long TD grabs, but not enough consistency and overall opportunities.

 

[Andy Dufresne]

This projection is a career high for Berrian in each category.

And 2006 was a career high from 2005 and 2007 was a career high from 2006.So?

 

[H.K.]

This projection is a career high for Berrian in each category.

And 2006 was a career high from 2005 and 2007 was a career high from 2006.So?

So...I think you need to double check some things.

 

[loose circuits]

The final 8 games of the season saw the Viking pass 210 times, fewer than the 222 attempts in the first 8 games.

If you extrapolate Jackson's 26.2 attempts per game average for the 7 complete games he played, the Vikings would have averaged 420 attempts on the year.

As a team, they averaged about 185 yards passing and less than one TD pass a game for the second half of the year.

Those numbers are all anemic.

In order for Berrian to have fantasy relevance, the Vikings will need to increase attempts by a ton (not just a handful a week) OR Berrian will need to be the overwhelming most targeted receiver. Right now there is no evidence to suggest either shift will occur.

Stop going back to what the Vikings did as a team last year (Jackson only threw 12 passes week 9 and then got hurt and didn't even play in week 10) and look at Jackson's progression in the second half of the season. Week 12 skews those numbers too since that was the week they destroyed the Giants and thus didn't even have to pass.Even if you include week 12, Jackson sill attempted 26 passes a game which extrapolates out to about 416 attempts. It's not beyond reason to expect that the Vikings will throw at least 2-3 times more per game, which puts Jackson up at near the 460 and 467 that Rivers and Cutler threw last year.

What matters is that the Vikings threw less with Jackson than they did without him. That is the importance of looking at team numbers both with and without Jackson. Assuming your projected increase of 460 attempts does occur, that still puts the Vikings in the bottom five for the entire NFL in attempts from last season....hardly a dramatic improvement.

It's the ABC's of the situation. Attempts lead to targets, targets lead to receptions, and receptions lead to stats.

According to FBG: 410 of 432 Vikings pass attempts from 2007 had identified targets (clock stoppage & throw aways probably omitted from being assigned to a receiver)

Here is how the 410 targets broke down:

RB 96

WR 253

TE 61

Last season 38% of passes didn't even go to WRs. Increasing TEAM attempts from 432 to 460 means of the extra 28 passes attempted, it is a fair expectation that roughly 17 or so will go to WR's.

Breaking it down even further, let's look at the WR's targets:

WR1 83 (19% of team targets)

WR2 61 (14% of team targets)

WR3 53 (12% of team targets)

WR4 & WR5 56 targets combined (13% of team targets)

17 additional WR targets split by the percentages above equate to an additional 3 targets to WR1 in Minny. Not much at all.

Berrian had 127 targets with Chicago last year. That represents over 50% of all WR targets in Minnesota last season!!!

Again: In order for Berrian to have fantasy relevance, the Vikings will need to increase attempts by a ton (not just a handful a week) OR Berrian will need to be the overwhelming most targeted receiver. Right now there is no evidence to suggest either shift will occur.

I think the thing you are missing is that the Vikes shuffled WR's all year last year which would lead to the decrease in targets. How many teams had WR4/5 have over 10% of the targets. I bet not many. Bobby Wade was their most targeted position and everybody knows he is a slot WR. Berrian is the ideal complement to Tarvaris' skill set. His numbers change when Berrian catches the balls that bounced off Williamson's face mask (people who watch Vikings games know what I am talking about). Berrian has sticky hands and catches the deep ball as good as anybody not named Randy. Tarvaris' strength is throwing it deep. With defenses focusing on the run, this combination could be dangerous. My guess is somewhere around 70/1100/8

 

[CBower4545]

I was actually impressed with Berrian last year. The year before he broke 9 catches for more then 25 yards for 400+ yards and 6tds in balanced offense where he somewhat came as a surprise. Last year there is no running threat, became the #1, and defenses could help deep. He only had 5 catches over 25 yards for 215 total yards and 2 tds but still had a more yardage on just 26 more targets( 13 extra catches at 15 per catch still only accounts for 195 which given his decrease in big play yards, shows his improvement). He proved he could work the underneath route and find open space. With the added pressure of being a #1, no run game, spotty QB play, and more attention from the defense he gave a solid performance.

this year:

- I don't buy the new QB worries. the Grossman Mancrush key to BB's success thing is a myth, with Griese in 6 games, 388 yrds and 2 tds and 40 targets. Can Tarvis really be much worse then Grossman, Griese, and Orton?

-I think having a great running game taking away targets is better then no running game threat

- Playing indoors indoors in Minny at the end of the year is nice.

- he seemed to grow as a player last year, (brought his catch per target from 50.5% to 55%, found a way to get open underneath)

- not a great passing team

- he is on a new team and has to learn and adjust

If you ask me look for less targets more yards per catch and more tds and I think his catch percentage increases. This is a guy who can get open.

105 targets 63 rec 965 6 tds.

 

[LHUCKS]

The anti-Jackson rhetoric is approaching ludicrous levels.

2007 down?

 

[Andy Dufresne]

The anti-Jackson rhetoric is approaching ludicrous levels.

2007 down?

According to my calendar, it's 2008. So, yes.

 

[The Man with the Plan]

Bernard Berrian's going from a passing team to a rushing team but the new team has a much better offensive line and a very good running game will help the passing game. So while the quantity pass attempts and targets should be fewer from Minnesota compared to Chicago the quality of the pass attempts and targets should make up for it.

60-900-6

A good #3 wide receiver.

 

[H.K.]

The final 8 games of the season saw the Viking pass 210 times, fewer than the 222 attempts in the first 8 games.

If you extrapolate Jackson's 26.2 attempts per game average for the 7 complete games he played, the Vikings would have averaged 420 attempts on the year.

As a team, they averaged about 185 yards passing and less than one TD pass a game for the second half of the year.

Those numbers are all anemic.

In order for Berrian to have fantasy relevance, the Vikings will need to increase attempts by a ton (not just a handful a week) OR Berrian will need to be the overwhelming most targeted receiver. Right now there is no evidence to suggest either shift will occur.

Stop going back to what the Vikings did as a team last year (Jackson only threw 12 passes week 9 and then got hurt and didn't even play in week 10) and look at Jackson's progression in the second half of the season. Week 12 skews those numbers too since that was the week they destroyed the Giants and thus didn't even have to pass.Even if you include week 12, Jackson sill attempted 26 passes a game which extrapolates out to about 416 attempts. It's not beyond reason to expect that the Vikings will throw at least 2-3 times more per game, which puts Jackson up at near the 460 and 467 that Rivers and Cutler threw last year.

What matters is that the Vikings threw less with Jackson than they did without him. That is the importance of looking at team numbers both with and without Jackson. Assuming your projected increase of 460 attempts does occur, that still puts the Vikings in the bottom five for the entire NFL in attempts from last season....hardly a dramatic improvement.

It's the ABC's of the situation. Attempts lead to targets, targets lead to receptions, and receptions lead to stats.

According to FBG: 410 of 432 Vikings pass attempts from 2007 had identified targets (clock stoppage & throw aways probably omitted from being assigned to a receiver)

Here is how the 410 targets broke down:

RB 96

WR 253

TE 61

Last season 38% of passes didn't even go to WRs. Increasing TEAM attempts from 432 to 460 means of the extra 28 passes attempted, it is a fair expectation that roughly 17 or so will go to WR's.

Breaking it down even further, let's look at the WR's targets:

WR1 83 (19% of team targets)

WR2 61 (14% of team targets)

WR3 53 (12% of team targets)

WR4 & WR5 56 targets combined (13% of team targets)

17 additional WR targets split by the percentages above equate to an additional 3 targets to WR1 in Minny. Not much at all.

Berrian had 127 targets with Chicago last year. That represents over 50% of all WR targets in Minnesota last season!!!

Again: In order for Berrian to have fantasy relevance, the Vikings will need to increase attempts by a ton (not just a handful a week) OR Berrian will need to be the overwhelming most targeted receiver. Right now there is no evidence to suggest either shift will occur.

I think the thing you are missing is that the Vikes shuffled WR's all year last year which would lead to the decrease in targets. How many teams had WR4/5 have over 10% of the targets. I bet not many. Bobby Wade was their most targeted position and everybody knows he is a slot WR. Berrian is the ideal complement to Tarvaris' skill set. His numbers change when Berrian catches the balls that bounced off Williamson's face mask (people who watch Vikings games know what I am talking about). Berrian has sticky hands and catches the deep ball as good as anybody not named Randy. Tarvaris' strength is throwing it deep. With defenses focusing on the run, this combination could be dangerous. My guess is somewhere around 70/1100/8

I'll definitely agree that the Vikings lacked a true WR1 last season and distribution was more spread out than other teams, however, take a closer look at your projection...here is a list of the WR's that had at least 70 receptions, 1100 yards and 8 TDs last year:

NAME			  TARG	REC	RECYD	RECTDRandy Moss		 159	98	1493	23Braylon Edwards	 153	80	1289	16Terrell Owens	   141	81	1355	15T.J. Houshmandzadeh 169	112	1145	12Marques Colston	 143	98	1201	11Larry Fitzgerald	167	101	1412	10Reggie Wayne		 156	104	1512	10Wes Welker		  145	112	1175	8Chad Johnson			160	93	1441	8

Your expectation for Berrian is quite lofty, particularly looking at the targets required to achieve 70/1100/8.

 

[jurrassic]

I continued to be amazed at the man-love some people have for the Vikings this year. There are going to be alot of disappointed Vikings fans.