Anyone who has watched Caddy significantly knows that the majority of his yards come from carries in the 4th quarter. He is a fairly "typical" workhorse back in that he needs to be fed the ball a certain number of times per game to reach his maximum effectiveness. Last year, he very rarely got those 4th quarter carries, in fact he very rarely got significant numbers of carries in the whole 2nd half. Now, unlike typical workhorse back, he hasn't proven he can stay healthy enough to handle that load, but he has had only his rookie year (and most players wear down in their rookie year) and last year where he never really got the load to handle.
From watching the game play by play on NFL.com, it was apparent to me that the TB running game never got much of a chance. Most of this thread has pinned the poor QB play on Gradkowski, and to a certain extent that is accurate, but let's not forget that before he was injured Simms was even worse (2TD / 7 INT?). If they were just getting Simms back this year, I wouldn't consider it much of an upgrade; Garcia (or maybe Plummer) on the other hand will be. They don't need to "strike fear into the other teams' hearts" as on poster awhile back said; all they need to do is not give the other team the ball for Caddy to have a much better season than last year.
The other biggest factor from last year is the OL. True they have made upgrades at 2 or 3 positions, but a return to health of some of the holdovers might be just as important. Petitgout might not be the best LT in the league, but he is head and shoulders above what the Bucs have played with in the recent past there (Kenyatta Walker anyone?). Davin Joseph (last year's first round pick) being healthy and in his second year alongside of Trueblood (another early pick last year) should do wonders for the line, and the addition of Sears and Luke on the left side will be an even bigger improvement.
SoS has already been done, so I'll leave that one alone. It should also be noted that, even though Caddy improved his receptions by 50% last year (from another earlier post), Gruden is talking about improving it even more this year. He wants to get Caddy 60 receptions, and has him catching kicks and punts to help improve his hands this year.
So, my point is, it's gonna happen with Caddy. He'll be a servicable RB2 at minimum, but I see his upside as a Westbrook of today (he also had early career injury problems) or a Charlie Garner under Gruden in Oakland. Those are pretty decent RB1 numbers. This year, I see:
45 Receptions / 450 yds / 2 ReTDs
325 carries / 1250 yds / 8 RuTDs