Player Spotlight: Calvin Johnson (1 Viewer)

[Jason Wood]

2008 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. Last year, we published more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters. This year will be no different.

Each week we will post a list of players to be discussed. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discussion expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Calvin Johnson, WR, Detroit Lions

Player Page Link: Calvin Johnson Player Page

Each article will include:

Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads
FBG Projections
Consensus Member ProjectionsThe Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

Focus commentary on the player in question, and your expectations for said player
Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
To be included in the final synopsis and consensus outlook, you MUST provide projections for the playerProjections should include (at a minimum):

For QBs: Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDsNow let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

 

[TheGooRoo]

Injury really slowed him last season. He tops Roy Wims in output with:

78-1124-10

 

[Scooby1974]

Add to injury that

1. He was a rookie (should be a Jr. in college).

2. Playing in a very complex passing offense.

3. Had an average QB

4. A poor line that couldn't protect and give time.

5. A bad running game

6. Buy "low" while you still can. This kid is about to blow up

75 rec, 1150yds, 12TD

 

[Frenchy Fuqua]

I like Calvin Johnson but not Jon Kitna and the Detroit O.

64/960/8

 

[3nOut]

Add to injury that

1. He was a rookie (should be a Jr. in college).

2. Playing in a very complex passing offense.

3. Had an average QB

4. A poor line that couldn't protect and give time.

5. A bad running game

6. Buy "low" while you still can. This kid is about to blow up

75 rec, 1150yds, 12TD

I like Calvin a lot. He's going to be a stud in this league but I am not convinced it will be this year yet. Not becasue of his talent, not becasue of Roy Williams. You said:

1. He was a rookie (should be a Jr. in college).

Still should be a "Sr. " in college.

2. Playing in a very complex passing offense.

Easier offense this year but has to learn a new O 2 years in a row.

3. Had an average QB

Still does.

4. A poor line that couldn't protect and give time.

Did this change much?

5. A bad running game

Still bad.

6. Buy "low" while you still can. This kid is about to blow up

Agreed, but chances are that if you want him you will have to reach and overpay, and not sure if it will be this year.

 

[shadyridr]

Call me crazy but I got him ranked as my #12 WR:

80-1200-8

 

[King of the Jungle]

72 - 1080 - 10

 

[Scooby1974]

Add to injury that

1. He was a rookie (should be a Jr. in college).

2. Playing in a very complex passing offense.

3. Had an average QB

4. A poor line that couldn't protect and give time.

5. A bad running game

6. Buy "low" while you still can. This kid is about to blow up

75 rec, 1150yds, 12TD

I like Calvin a lot. He's going to be a stud in this league but I am not convinced it will be this year yet. Not becasue of his talent, not becasue of Roy Williams. You said:

1. He was a rookie (should be a Jr. in college).

Still should be a "Sr. " in college.

2. Playing in a very complex passing offense.

Easier offense this year but has to learn a new O 2 years in a row.

3. Had an average QB

Still does.

4. A poor line that couldn't protect and give time.

Did this change much?

5. A bad running game

Still bad.

6. Buy "low" while you still can. This kid is about to blow up

Agreed, but chances are that if you want him you will have to reach and overpay, and not sure if it will be this year.

All good points...I guess very little has changed much, but there is more hope however with: 1. Calvin is healthy. 2. A new Offense that typically calls for 2 WR's as opposed to 3/4. 3.A fresh,new RB that looks to be healthy and ready to go in Kevin Smith.I still expect more from CJ2...perhaps I have my "Calvin Goggles" strapped on a bit too tight.

 

[Jason Wood]

I'll be honest with you, I'm torn on what to expect of CJ this year. Few WRs have ever come into the league with as much universal accolade and, yet, despite playing for a pass happy attack (to say the least) he didn't inspire last year. To be fair, I think we have become a little too quick to discount rookie struggles because of the occasional impact rookie WR. We used to accept that rookie WRs don't do much by way of fantasy but then guys like Michael Clayton, Marques Colston, Anquan Boldin and Dwayne Bowe started cropping up and getting us to think rookies can/should make a difference. Yet those guys are very clearly the exceptions to the rule and I hardly think there's reason to think Calvin isn't still a PREMIER prospect.

On the other hand, I'm a big Roy Williams fan and it's difficult for me to imagine CJ outperforming him [not saying that's the right way to look at it, just clarifying that it's how I think about things].

People dismissing the Lions' offense b/c of the offensive line may be overshooting the mark, though. Yes, the line has been awful but that's as much about scheme as it was talent. Seriously folks, I needed tell Lions fans that Jon Kitna was NEVER protected. Mike Martz, in typical Martz fashion, just never adjusted to opposing pass rushes and threw everyone out into the pattern most of the time. I would be SHOCKED if Kitna's sack totals don't come way down this year. With a defensive head coach and two conservative (by reputation) offensive coordinators, this offense is going to look dramatically different than we've seen the last two seasons.

The real "losers" in the new offense are Shaun McDonald and Mike Furrey, IMHO. This is going to be a much more conventional pro style offense where two wide receiver sets are commonplace. Luckily for Calvin Johnson, he's one of those two receivers. While I could see the Lions throwing much less in 2008, I don't expect that the targets thrown to WR1 and WR2 will diminish significantly.

As I said, I'm still unsure about where to rank him. I wouldn't be at all shocked if he emerged this year as an elite talent; capable of top 10 numbers. On the other hand, I certainly wouldn't be surprised to see him finish in the mid 20s either; which would make him a VBD baseline type of player.

 

[LBH]

I think he makes a huge jump in year 2 a lot like Fitzgerald did his sophmore season.

82 1250 9

 

[billymays]

billy mays here-

I see some good points but keep in mind....

the offense has NOT changed.

the playcalling will, but the playbook, terminology and such are the same. and if anything changes in the playbook it will be just to shorten it up take out some confusion, like less pre-snap action and stuff.

season

72-1040-8

per game avg

4.5catch 65 yards .5 TD 14.4(repeating of course)ypc

 

[Jason Wood]

billy mays here-I see some good points but keep in mind....the offense has NOT changed.the playcalling will, but the playbook, terminology and such are the same. and if anything changes in the playbook it will be just to shorten it up take out some confusion, like less pre-snap action and stuff.season72-1040-8per game avg4.5catch 65 yards .5 TD 14.4(repeating of course)ypc

Billy, sorry buddy but that's not an accurate portrayal of things as I see it. Yes, the base formations and terminology are the same. BUT, what you have to remember is that Martz ALWAYS opted for flooding the field with receivers at the expense of keeping blockers back. He had max protect in the playbook, he just never called it. Colletto is significantly ratcheting back the playbook, emphasizing execution over variety.And while I know this is a discussion of the passing attack, it's not fair to say the offensive system isn't changing because Colletto is installing a zone-blocking scheme this year; which is a pretty big change of approach toward the way the line calls work and how the backs attack the holes.

 

[billymays]

billy mays here-I see some good points but keep in mind....the offense has NOT changed.the playcalling will, but the playbook, terminology and such are the same. and if anything changes in the playbook it will be just to shorten it up take out some confusion, like less pre-snap action and stuff.season72-1040-8per game avg4.5catch 65 yards .5 TD 14.4(repeating of course)ypc

Billy, sorry buddy but that's not an accurate portrayal of things as I see it. Yes, the base formations and terminology are the same. BUT, what you have to remember is that Martz ALWAYS opted for flooding the field with receivers at the expense of keeping blockers back. He had max protect in the playbook, he just never called it. Colletto is significantly ratcheting back the playbook, emphasizing execution over variety.And while I know this is a discussion of the passing attack, it's not fair to say the offensive system isn't changing because Colletto is installing a zone-blocking scheme this year; which is a pretty big change of approach toward the way the line calls work and how the backs attack the holes.

my point is that people have concern that CJ will be overwhelmed by learning a new playbook which is the furthest thing from the truth.

 

[Ripleys]

put it this way, Superman will look like a whimp compared to Calvin this year. 15 TDs.

 

[Jason Wood]

billy mays here-I see some good points but keep in mind....the offense has NOT changed.the playcalling will, but the playbook, terminology and such are the same. and if anything changes in the playbook it will be just to shorten it up take out some confusion, like less pre-snap action and stuff.season72-1040-8per game avg4.5catch 65 yards .5 TD 14.4(repeating of course)ypc

Billy, sorry buddy but that's not an accurate portrayal of things as I see it. Yes, the base formations and terminology are the same. BUT, what you have to remember is that Martz ALWAYS opted for flooding the field with receivers at the expense of keeping blockers back. He had max protect in the playbook, he just never called it. Colletto is significantly ratcheting back the playbook, emphasizing execution over variety.And while I know this is a discussion of the passing attack, it's not fair to say the offensive system isn't changing because Colletto is installing a zone-blocking scheme this year; which is a pretty big change of approach toward the way the line calls work and how the backs attack the holes.

my point is that people have concern that CJ will be overwhelmed by learning a new playbook which is the furthest thing from the truth.

Oh, in that case we're in complete agreement. They're simplifying the playbook so you're absolutely right, it's going to be easier to master for anyone already familiar with the terminology.

 

[Anthony Borbely]

The real "losers" in the new offense are Shaun McDonald and Mike Furrey, IMHO. This is going to be a much more conventional pro style offense where two wide receiver sets are commonplace. Luckily for Calvin Johnson, he's one of those two receivers. While I could see the Lions throwing much less in 2008, I don't expect that the targets thrown to WR1 and WR2 will diminish significantly.

<_< Last year, McDonald and Furrey had a combined 217 targets. Calvin and Roy had a combined 199 targets.

That will be completely different this year.

 

[Anthony Borbely]

Another thing about targets:

Last year, McDonald and Furrey had more combined red zone targets than Roy and Calvin. That was the biggest complaint I had about Martz. You have two big WRs who can jump higher than most, yet it was rare to see a red zone look.

When inside the 5 yard line, Calvin had only 2 targets all year, which is a joke. That will definitely change this year. I really never understood why they did not throw to Calvin down there where he has a huge advantage over all DBs.

Martz being gone has been seen as a disadvantage for Calvin this year. That couldn't be further from the truth in my opinion.

 

[Rushmore]

Another thing about targets: Last year, McDonald and Furrey had more combined red zone targets than Roy and Calvin. That was the biggest complaint I had about Martz. You have two big WRs who can jump higher than most, yet it was rare to see a red zone look. When inside the 5 yard line, Calvin had only 2 targets all year, which is a joke. That will definitely change this year. I really never understood why they did not throw to Calvin down there where he has a huge advantage over all DBs.Martz being gone has been seen as a disadvantage for Calvin this year. That couldn't be further from the truth in my opinion.

 

[The Man with the Plan]

Calvin Johnson had a good rookie season for a wide receiver. He should build upon it but I'm not convinced that Detroit has the type of situation where Johnson can put up stud-like numbers. I wouldn't want to rely on him as a starter but that's most likely the case for where he'll be drafted.

 

[twr]

Calvin Johnson had a good rookie season for a wide receiver. He should build upon it but I'm not convinced that Detroit has the type of situation where Johnson can put up stud-like numbers. I wouldn't want to rely on him as a starter but that's most likely the case for where he'll be drafted.

there are plenty of teams that can support 2 great WR's in the nfl, and give them both great stats... CJ and housh, fitz and boldin, wayne and marvin... so it can be done, even while running a good bit... i look for kevin smith to have a decent year, and for calvin to BLOW up. hes way too talented and hard working for him NOT to succeed.

 

[mlball77]

Like many, I find myself concerned about the Detroit offense this year given the departure of Martz and the skill/play of the o-line. The loss of Martz in particular has me skeptical about the Lions WRs. I think one earlier poster made a point that Furrey and McDonald are the big losers with Martz now in SF, and I generally agree, but it will hurt Williams and Johnson as well, imho, just not to the same degree.

While I think Johnson has a tremendous skill set and has the ability to be great in the redzone, the Detroit offense may not provide him much of a chance to hit double digit TDs this year.

Recs: 70

Yds: 1050

TDs: 7

 

[Phlash]

Calvin Johnson had a good rookie season for a wide receiver. He should build upon it but I'm not convinced that Detroit has the type of situation where Johnson can put up stud-like numbers. I wouldn't want to rely on him as a starter but that's most likely the case for where he'll be drafted.

there are plenty of teams that can support 2 great WR's in the nfl, and give them both great stats... CJ and housh, fitz and boldin, wayne and marvin... so it can be done, even while running a good bit... i look for kevin smith to have a decent year, and for calvin to BLOW up. hes way too talented and hard working for him NOT to succeed.

Don't forget Bruce and Holt or Welker and Moss

 

[srnohav]

Calvin Johnson had a good rookie season for a wide receiver. He should build upon it but I'm not convinced that Detroit has the type of situation where Johnson can put up stud-like numbers. I wouldn't want to rely on him as a starter but that's most likely the case for where he'll be drafted.

there are plenty of teams that can support 2 great WR's in the nfl, and give them both great stats... CJ and housh, fitz and boldin, wayne and marvin... so it can be done, even while running a good bit... i look for kevin smith to have a decent year, and for calvin to BLOW up. hes way too talented and hard working for him NOT to succeed.

Don't forget Bruce and Holt or Welker and Moss

only arizona is really relevant, Kitna is no where near teh quarterback that all of those otehr teams have. yes, teams can have two good receivers, but ussually you have to have a very good QB. Tom Brady, Manning, Palmer, and Bulger are way better than Kitna. you can fight it out on Warner/Leinert vs Kitna

 

[GoRaiders]

I traded away Cal last year (1 year keeper league) to make a title run. After the trade was made, a majority of the league thought I made out since they did not look at Cal as a solid keeper. I think otherwise and actually wish I had him around as a keeper this year. With the new offense, second year in the league, a full healthy season, a conservative projection is to add 15-20 catches and a few TDs to his stats from last year.

65 catches 1000 yards 7 TDs

which would put him right around top 20 for WRs. As his avg draft is #19, you would be getting what you paid for, but we know value is what wins titles. If he falls in your draft (which would seem to be the case in my league), then grab him. Otherwise, use this pick to take a chance on a RB and wait for a projected top 30 WR and approx. 1 less FP per week for this WR slot.

 

[gianmarco]

I'll be honest with you, I'm torn on what to expect of CJ this year. Few WRs have ever come into the league with as much universal accolade and, yet, despite playing for a pass happy attack (to say the least) he didn't inspire last year. To be fair, I think we have become a little too quick to discount rookie struggles because of the occasional impact rookie WR. We used to accept that rookie WRs don't do much by way of fantasy but then guys like Michael Clayton, Marques Colston, Anquan Boldin and Dwayne Bowe started cropping up and getting us to think rookies can/should make a difference. Yet those guys are very clearly the exceptions to the rule and I hardly think there's reason to think Calvin isn't still a PREMIER prospect.On the other hand, I'm a big Roy Williams fan and it's difficult for me to imagine CJ outperforming him [not saying that's the right way to look at it, just clarifying that it's how I think about things]. People dismissing the Lions' offense b/c of the offensive line may be overshooting the mark, though. Yes, the line has been awful but that's as much about scheme as it was talent. Seriously folks, I needed tell Lions fans that Jon Kitna was NEVER protected. Mike Martz, in typical Martz fashion, just never adjusted to opposing pass rushes and threw everyone out into the pattern most of the time. I would be SHOCKED if Kitna's sack totals don't come way down this year. With a defensive head coach and two conservative (by reputation) offensive coordinators, this offense is going to look dramatically different than we've seen the last two seasons. The real "losers" in the new offense are Shaun McDonald and Mike Furrey, IMHO. This is going to be a much more conventional pro style offense where two wide receiver sets are commonplace. Luckily for Calvin Johnson, he's one of those two receivers. While I could see the Lions throwing much less in 2008, I don't expect that the targets thrown to WR1 and WR2 will diminish significantly. As I said, I'm still unsure about where to rank him. I wouldn't be at all shocked if he emerged this year as an elite talent; capable of top 10 numbers. On the other hand, I certainly wouldn't be surprised to see him finish in the mid 20s either; which would make him a VBD baseline type of player.

Agree 100%. I want to believe this guy is going to be an elite, Fitzgerald level talent in the league and probably lean this way. But no way would I put money on it and wouldn't be surprised if it didn't happen. I really wish I owned him in at least 1 league, though.

 

[rzrback77]

I too expect big things eventually from Calvin Johnson, but I think that most of the projections in here are very optimistic. Johnson started out strong with TDs in his first two games and four recptions in each, averaging 65 yards. But after that, he only had two other scores all season long. He topped 60 yards receiving only twice and only had over five catches once all year.

I do think that the targets will rise this year though, so he should increase all his stats. I am just not sure that he will be the co-WR1 which seems what most are predicting for him in 08. I think that he'll improve from last yearm just not step all the way to #1. I don't think that Kitna will lose his job, but if he does, I think that the production for both Williams and Johnson will slip from that point on.

Calvin Johnson 130 target 69 catches 966 yards 14.0 ypc and 6 TDs

edited following question from taxman

 

[TaxMan]

I too expect big things eventually from Calvin Johnson, but I think that most of the projections in here are very optimistic. Johnson started out strong with TDs in his first two games and four recptions in each, averaging 65 yards. But after that, he only had two other scores all season long. He topped 60 yards receiving only twice and only had over five catches once all year.I do think that the targets will rise this year though, so he should increase all his stats. I am just not sure that he will be the co-WR1 which seems what most are predicting for him in 08. I think that he'll improve from last yearm just not step all the way to #1. I don't think that Kitna will lose his job, but if he does, I think that the production for both Williams and Johnson will slip from that point on.Calvin Johnson 110 target 60 catches 840 yards 14.0 ypc and 6 TDs

I think Roy and Calvin gets around 140 targets each, with Kitna throwing right around 500 pass attempts. They will run much more than last year, but I just dont see Lions throwing near 450 if they want to be competitive. WR3, TE, and RB should make up the remaining 220 targets --> which seems a little on the high side already, so I really dont think 150 targets each for Calvin and Roy is out of the question.and you had this prediction for KitnaJon Kitna 333 comp in 520 attempts for 3640 yds 7.0 ypa 20 TDs 20 ints & 110 rush yds & 1 TD if you think Calvin gets only 110 of those 520, where do you think they go aside from Roy Williams? just curious.

 

[rzrback77]

I too expect big things eventually from Calvin Johnson, but I think that most of the projections in here are very optimistic. Johnson started out strong with TDs in his first two games and four recptions in each, averaging 65 yards. But after that, he only had two other scores all season long. He topped 60 yards receiving only twice and only had over five catches once all year.I do think that the targets will rise this year though, so he should increase all his stats. I am just not sure that he will be the co-WR1 which seems what most are predicting for him in 08. I think that he'll improve from last yearm just not step all the way to #1. I don't think that Kitna will lose his job, but if he does, I think that the production for both Williams and Johnson will slip from that point on.Calvin Johnson 110 target 60 catches 840 yards 14.0 ypc and 6 TDs

I think Roy and Calvin gets around 140 targets each, with Kitna throwing right around 500 pass attempts. They will run much more than last year, but I just dont see Lions throwing near 450 if they want to be competitive. WR3, TE, and RB should make up the remaining 220 targets --> which seems a little on the high side already, so I really dont think 150 targets each for Calvin and Roy is out of the question.and you had this prediction for KitnaJon Kitna 333 comp in 520 attempts for 3640 yds 7.0 ypa 20 TDs 20 ints & 110 rush yds & 1 TD if you think Calvin gets only 110 of those 520, where do you think they go aside from Roy Williams? just curious.

You are correct that I am a little low for CJ. I am thinking 150 for Roy Williams and CJ probably should have been 130. I have 80 for the two other WRs combined, about 60 for all TEs and 100 combined for all the RBs. I'll update the CJ projection in the above post. Thanks!

 

[Iwannabeacowboybaby!]

What bothers me a little about Calvin Johnson is that he was targeted 95 times and only caught half of them. Now, it could very easily be bad passing but when I think of a tall athletic receiver like Johnson, you would think he'd be able to wrestle in more than 50 percent of his targets just on skill alone.

With that said, he was just a rookie and he was injured early on in the year. I'm willing to give this young player the benefit of the doubt but it's likely that there will be at least 1 guy in your 10, 12, or 14 team league who will have this guy ranked higher than what he'll probably do this year. He isn't Randy Moss or Terell Owens.......he's not even M. Colston or T.J Housh. I expect improvement from last year but on this Lions offense, will it warrant his ADP?

60 receptions for 900 yards and 7 td's

 

[treat88]

He isn't Randy Moss or Terell Owens.......he's not even M. Colston or T.J Housh.

*CJ2 owner disclaimer*The only word missing from this sentence is ..yet..I have no doubt he will follow a career arc similar to Larry Fitzgerald, whom I would put firmly amongst the names mentioned. He has as much talent as any of the guys mentioned, the only question is will his situation allow him to exploit it.In a dynasty format, now is the time to buy him. In fact it may be too late.

 

[Run N Gun]

Prior to injury Calvin Johnson avg'd over 2.5 games 4 catches 75 yards and 0.8 TD's on pace for a top 10 WR year - but against weak D's (albeit his first 2.5 games in the league after a training camp holdout in a complex offense)

During his last 5 starts, he averaged 4.6 catches 67.4 yards and 0.2 TD's on pace for a top 24 WR year.

All told he finished as the 38th WR in PPR leagues

All the mixed signals present themselves (heathly, year 2 in the league, more of a focus of the offense vs Martz gone, run focused offense, fewer ops in the red zone, injury prone style ?).

He's being drafted at about WR18 right now from what I can tell which is probably about right given his upside vs floor.

Projection: 70 rec 1140 yds 8 TD's

 

[Jon_Moore]

Physically, talent-wise, he's probably going to be as good as they come this year. He's tall, he's fast, he's strong...really one of the most complete packages at the position. The situation is just eh...

He's got a QB that's thrown for over 4,000 yards the last 2 years...he's got what should be a fixture at the pro-bowl across from him, but...

The offensive line can't protect, Kitna gets sacked a ton, throws a ton of interceptions.

The running game is inconsistent to non-existent.

Roy despite all the same gifts, in the same situation, has only broken 900 Yards once, never hit the 10 TD mark, and considering he can't stay healthy, defenses will be able to key on Calvin if he starts to go crazy.

It's just hard to get excited about his prospects.

58 Receptions

876 Yards

6 TDs

 

[PahtyTom]

He looks leaner this year, which I think is very good from a longevity standpoint. Dynasty wise, the lack of a franchise QB in Detroit really hurts him IMO though.