I have said all off-season that Taylor has a good chance to be this year's Lamont Jordan, and even with the bad press coming out about Taylor's conditioning, I still think that there's still a decent chance for that to happen.
Rather than try to remember everything I've had to say about him, I will just cut and paste snipets that I've posted from many other threads . . .
Where is all the Mewelde Moore love coming from? Sure, he's done well when he's had the chance . . . but the team seems instistent on him NOT getting the chance. I recall that he will be the return back this season.
I know that there have been some concerns about Taylor's physical conditioning so far in OTAs, but remember that he will be running behind Pro Bowlers Birk, Hutchinson, and Richardson.
What I find interesting in some of these threads is that people want to knock Larry Johnson down a notch for losing Richardson and Shaun Alexander down some for losing Hutchinson . . . yet NO ONE wants to bump Taylor up for GAINING these guys. IMO, Taylor has realistic Top 10 potential this year if he decides he wants to be a starting NFL RB.
For those poo-pooing the Taylor has Top 10 potential comment, here are the players that have run behind a combination of 3 Pro Bowlers in the past 15 years(looking at OL and FB):
2005 SEA Shaun Alexander
OL Steve Hutchinson, OL Walter Jones, OL Walter Tobek
2004 PIT Jerome Bettis/Duce Staley
OL Alan Faneca, OL Jeff Hartings, OL Marvel Smith
2004 KC Priest Holmes/Larry Johnson
OL William Roaf, OL Will Shields, OL Brian Waters
2003 KC Priest Holmes
OL William Roaf, OL Will Shields, FB Tony Richardson
1996 DAL Emmitt Smith
OL Larry Allen, OL Erik Williams, OL Nate Newton
1995 DAL Emmitt Smith
OL Larry Allen, OL Ray Donaldson, OL Nate Newton
1994 DAL Emmitt Smith
OL Nate Newton, OL Mark Stepnoski, OL Mark Tuinei
1993 DAL Emmitt Smith
FB Daryl Johnson, OL Erik Williams, OL Nate Newton, OL Mark Stepnoski
Now, the Vikings have not had a season with 3 Pro Bowlers yet, but if Birk, Hutchinson, and Richardson perform as they have done in the past I think that bodes well for the Vikings' rushing game. Certainly, it does not appear that the Vikings are going to become the 90s Cowboys or 00s Chiefs in terms of running production, but they should be a lot better than they have been.
I've said it at least a dozen times this off-season. Taylor will be this year's version of Lamont Jordan. In many leagues Jordan slipped into the 3rd round and was taken after at least 20 other RB were selected. that's basically the same situation that Taylor will be in this year.
People keep pointing to Childress as a RBBC coach. In 7 years with the Eagles, he had only 2 years with a healthy RB1. Both years it was Duce Staley, and in those years Duce had almost 1600 total yards and 6-8 TD. (He ranked 10th and 15th in those seasons.)
Darrell Bevell takes over at OC coming over from the Packers. Green Bay semeed to have gotten Ahman Green some decent years the past few seasons. Granted, he was not OC at Green Bay but one would think that he still was part of a system that helped Green rank as a Top 5 RB.
Why is it a 3-headed hyrda in PHI when by your own recounting Staley, Buckhalter, and Westbrook all missed significant time with injuries across multiple seasons?
Again, using the Lamont Jordan comparison, OAK still ranked a paltry 31st in rushing attempts and 29th in rushing yards, yet he still ranked 9th last year.
The Vikings seemed to have TRIED to not give Moore the starting job and have done seemingly everything in their power to keep him from having a featured role. Maybe they will change their collective minds over him, but it sure doesn't look like that's in the immediate future.
I'm not suggesting that Taylor turns into Holmes, Emmitt, or Alexander. I am saying that if things work out, Taylor could be a Top 10 RB this season. Compared to the guys listed, Taylor's fantasy production could be 30-40% LESS than the uber studs and still be Top 10 (maybe even up to half the production depending upon the year). Teams would love to add a Pro Bowl linemen or fullback--let alnoe both in the same season. I doubt anyone would say that the Vikings rushing game got WORSE by adding Hutchinson and Richardson.
I explained this once already. Childress would have preferred to use a featured back. In his two healthy seasons in PHI, Duce Staley have about 1600 total yards and 6-8 total TD.
In the other seasons that Childress was OC in PHI, he had no choice but to use a variety of backs.
1999
Healthy Staley = 366 touches
2000
Injured Staley = 6 RB with at least 10 touches
2001
Banged up Staley = 229 touches with Correll Buckhalter filling in getting 142 touches
2002
Healthy Staley = 320 touches
2003
Staley holds out and is not 100%. Buckhalter fills in on occasion for 136 touches. Westbrook also gets 154 touches.
2004
Staley gone. Buckhalter blows an ACL. Westbrook default RB but limited to 12-13 carries. Dorsey Levens picked up off waivers as there are no other viable RB options.
2005
Buckhalter again blows an ACL and misses the season. Westbrook misses the end of the season. Moats plays the last few games.
Nowhere in here do I see a track record for a COMMITTEE approach to the running backs. The only varation on that is Westbrook. It's clear to me that the Eagles did not (and likely still do not) want Westbrook to be a workhorse back and prefer to use him as a 12-13 carry back with a ton of receptions.
Now jump to Minnesota. The team already said it hoped to get Taylor the ball 20-30 times a game. I would ignore the talk of 30 touches a game as that's just crazy talk, but 20 touches is not that out of the realm of possibility. 17 carries and 3 receptions seems attainable. That's 272 rushes and another 48 receptions--about what Staley was getting in his healthy seasons.
272 x 4.0 = 1,088 rushing yards
48 x 7.5 = 360 receiving yards
8 total TD
About 193 fantasy points. Last year that would have ranked 12th for RB. A few more yards or another 1-2 TD and he would have ranked in the Top 10 (would have been #9 with 10 more fantasy points).
That's what I see in my crystal ball for Taylor this year . . . IF HE WAKES UP AND DECIDES HE WANTS TO BE THE #1 RB IN MINNESOTA. If he wants to just phone it in and be lazy, that's another story.
Minnesota has given Moore 10 or more carries 11 times in 26 games played. In those games, he averaged 16.6 carries a game. But in his other 15 games, he only averaged 2.5 carries a game. Clearly if he is not filling in as the starter, he is an afterthought.
1) HC and OC: True, we don't know what the Vikes will do, but they have already said they hope to get Taylor the ball 20-30 times a game. I never buy into the 30 touches tlak, but 20 seems reasonable to me. Also, IMO the WR corps is somewhat run of the mill, and they certainly at this point don't appear to have a receiver that is in line for 100 receptions. They have 4 decent options but no one great. While others may argue otherwise, I think this improves the chances Taylor gets a steady diet of carrying the ball.
2) Most teams would be in trouble if the main QB went down to injury. At 38, Johnson will not beat Michael Vick in the 40 yard dash, but until he gets injured this is pure conjecture. Even if Johnson were to get hurt, that many times gives the RB more work, so that might not be the worst thing for Taylor.
3) From what I've seen, Moore is projected to be a special teamer and change of pace back. There has been some debate as to whether Fason is the #2 in MIN. If the team really wanted Moore to be the starter, they have had plenty of opportunity to do so in the pst and really have not embraced him as a featured back. I personally thought Moore was a decent option, but then they went out and gleefully signed Taylor.
4) "Reports of" and "whispers" are not the same. No one has come out and actually said "Taylor is not in shape." IIRC, there was an article saying that some people felt the team may have been disappointed in Taylor's conditioning upon arriving. This has been covered in several articles. Taylor himself has said the number of practices and pace in Minnesota is much more rigorous than it was in Baltimore. There are still many months until opening day. If he still is winded come September, then we can revisit this issue.
5) Unproven and can he last: This can be said of any rookie or any new starter, and while a valid concern, one that many RB have faced. In 11 games in BAL with 10 or more carries, Taylor averaged 17 carries, 67 rushing yards, and 20 receiving yards per game. If nothing changed at all (clearly that won't happen), he would get 1400 total yards over a full season--and remember, that was when he was not fully the go-to back. Certainly not apples to apples, but worth noting none the less.
IMO, Taylor should see the ball 18 times rushing and another 3 receiving per game. Split the difference and call it 21 times per game. If he were to play in all 16 games, that would be 336 touches.
He's currently going as the #21 RB off the board. Are there really 20 other RB that will see that many touches with a real chance to get even more? His ADP is 3.09 in 12-team leagues (at least for now).
IMO, this is Lamont Jordan revisited. People last year were saying the same things and Jordan was a 3rd round pick in many leagues.
I am in the huge minority here in that I have Taylor in my Top 10 for 2006. The team seems intent on getting him 20-30 touches a game. I doubt he sees many weeks with 30, but he shoud get 22-23 on average.
He's running behind 4-time Pro Bowler Matt Birk, 3-time Pro Bowler Steve Hutchinson, and 2-time Pro Bowler Tony Richardson. And TE Jim Kleinsasser is one of the better blocking tight ends around.
Add in that Whizzinator is gone, Michael Bennett is gone, and Moe Williams retired. That leaves Mewelde Moore (who has trouble staying healthy) and Ciatrick Fason (who basically is their shor yardage back).
I also don't see the WR corps as being the force to be reckoned with like former Minnesota teams. The Robinsons, Taylor, and Williamson are all ok but not awe inspiring. Taylor should see plenty of swing passes.
I've said it all off-season that Chester Taylor 2006 = Lamont Jordan 2005.
Unless Childress is completely blowing smoke, IMO the Vikes plan on using Taylor as their go to guy. Taylor inked a four-year, $14.1 million contract, with $5.6 million in guaranteed money. IMO, he's too costly to have as merely a backup.
Here were Taylor's stats from game with at least 10 carries over the span of his career . . .
Rushes, Rushing Yards, Receiving Yards, Total TD
10-45-25-0 vs ARI 2003
21-89-11-0 vs BUF 2004
18-78-18-0 vs PHI 2004
15-33-18-1 vs DAL 2004
16-61-24-0 vs NE 2004
23-139-25-1 vs CIN 2004
25-104-27-0 vs NYG 2004
11-32-24-0 vs NYJ 2005
19-59-26-0 vs PIT 2005
11-40-6-0 vs HOU 2005
20-59-14-0 vs DEN 2005
AVG: 17-67-20-0.18
Of interest is that the Vikings have said they think Taylor could get 25 touches a game. I doubt that will happen, but that is the story they are telling at this point.
Seriously, I think you have made some very great points and even if he's not top 10, I don't think he falls any lower than 15.
...and at the minimum possible salary of $4 in my 12 team, 15 pos $200 auction cap keeper league. Now if I really had balls I would run with CT and LJ($11 
Is that funny to just me?
