Player Spotlight: Derrick Ward (1 Viewer)

[Jason Wood]

2009 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. Last year, we published more than 120 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters. This year will be no different.

Each week we will post a list of players to be discussed. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discussion expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Derrick Ward, RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Player Page Link: Derrick Ward Player Page

Each article will include:

Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads
FBG Projections
Consensus Member ProjectionsThe Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

Focus commentary on the player in question, and your expectations for said player
Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
To be included in the final synopsis and consensus outlook, you MUST provide projections for the playerProjections should include (at a minimum):

For QBs: Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDsNow let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

 

[Two Deep]

Rushing 250- 1010 6 tds

Recieving 28- 275 2 tds

 

[rzrback77]

I am hesitant to forecast a successful 09 campaign for Derrick Ward as I am having difficulty getting on the Tampa Bay bandwagon. I know that the Bucs are in a very strong division and all their division opponents appear to have improved in the off-season. Meanwhile, Tampa Bay lost their head coach and QB. Their defense is also starting to age. I think that they will have a rough season and I think that they may abandon the running game as they are forced to pass and keep up with others scoring.

Derrick Ward enters the 09 season at the age of 29, but only has 342 rushing attempts and 182 of those were last year. His opportunities have been limited and I just don't see a full-time back season in store for him in 09. I think that Earnest Graham will still be around and even the Cadillac could come out of the storage facility for a test drive. Between the shared backfield and the decreased running chances, I think that Ward's last 1,000 yard season is in the rear view mirror.

Derrick Ward 190 carries 760 yards 4.0 ypc 30 catches 240 yards 8.0 ypc and 4 TDs

 

[Buffaloes]

how does Earnest Graham factor into the equation? I know when the OC Jagodzinski was brought on, he raved about Graham and then Tampa went out and signed Ward.

 

[Chicago Hooligan]

Yes, somewhat strange because Ward is getting paid like a starter, but a healthy Graham deserves 15+ carries per game. A young/transitioning team, TB will probably run enough to get each his carries anyway.

I don't see Ward as a TD machine. He won't be on the goal line. Receptions will be down as TB doesn't sustain drives the way NYG did. I'll say 850 yds rushing, 250 receiving, a measly 4 total TDs.

I will say that Ward looks like a good risky RB2 target if you are more optimistic about him and want to load up on WRs early.

 

[finito]

210 carries, 860 yds, 6 TDs, 22 catches, 160 yds, 1 TD

 

[ajopiela]

It will be 60-40...until Grahm gets hurt. But worst case scenario, he proved last year he can get 1000 in a comittee/backup role. I know the TDs are a concern, but c'mon...EG is not a TD threat. I think Ward should get 1350 yds, 7 TDS/ 200 rec Yd 1 TD EASY

Tampa has an above average Oline, and i wouldnt say the NFC South is particuraly tough against the run.

This years Michael Turner!!!

 

[Dr. Octopus]

People will label Ward a "career backup" and point out how he hardly sniffed the field during his first three-four seasons in the NFL, but seem to forget that he was behind guys like Curtis Martin (Hall of Famer), Lamont Jordan, Tiki Barber (borderline Hall of Famer) and Brandon Jacobs. It's hard to really make a statement as to his talent level based on being a backup to those guys. He did end up making Ryan Grant expendable and held off Ahamad Bradshaw last season despite the fact the Bradshaw was the Giants best RB during their SuperBowl run in the playoffs in 2007. There is talent there if you watched him run - he's a pretty complete back. People seem to think he's small because he played the "lightning" to Jacob's "thunder", but at 5'11", 228 pounds he's actually a pretty large back capable of GL carries.

1,145 yards rushing, 6 TDs

40 receptions, 265 yards receiving, 1 TD

 

[nittanylion]

I think Derrick Ward has considerable skills, but I'm not high on him for 2009 for the following reasons:

1. Tampa Bay's Aggregate Offensive Production - I just don't see them being in the top 16 Offenses in 2009, and possibly not in the Top 24. Just too many issues. The only Buc I want on a 2009 Team is Antonio Bryant, and that would be as a Flex WR, and I'm not going to be able to get him at that value. Combine that with an aging Defense, and while the Offense may certainly get it's share of Possessions, right now I see a lot of 3 and Outs.

2. He's gotten banged up in the past, and he's absolutely going to get pummeled this year - Opponents have no reason NOT to stack 8 in the Box until one of the QB's proves themselves capable of taking advantage of that consistently, and I don't think they have one on the Roster that will do that THIS YEAR. I don't see Tampa having a diverse enough Offense, and enough playmakers to protect Ward from taking a beating, and based on his prior Seasons, I find it hard to believe that he won't miss time due to injuries. For the record, I think Winslow is going to take a beating and miss time as well, and that will have a further negative impact on all facets of the TB Offense.

Ward was an excellent complimentary piece to the Giants Earth, Wind and Fire Scheme, and I think they'll miss him until Danny Ware and Andre Brown prove themselves, but I think the stars are lined up against him for a successful '09 Season in Tampa Bay.

I see him as a high risk / moderate reward part of a Fantasy RB2BC, with possible upside in PPR Leagues.

Optimistic 16 Game Totals:

200 Carries / 768 Yards / 2 TDR

48 Receptions / 360 Yards / 3TDRec

 

[gonzobill5]

I think Derrick Ward has considerable skills, but I'm not high on him for 2009 for the following reasons:

1. Tampa Bay's Aggregate Offensive Production - I just don't see them being in the top 16 Offenses in 2009, and possibly not in the Top 24. Just too many issues. The only Buc I want on a 2009 Team is Antonio Bryant, and that would be as a Flex WR, and I'm not going to be able to get him at that value. Combine that with an aging Defense, and while the Offense may certainly get it's share of Possessions, right now I see a lot of 3 and Outs.

2. He's gotten banged up in the past, and he's absolutely going to get pummeled this year - Opponents have no reason NOT to stack 8 in the Box until one of the QB's proves themselves capable of taking advantage of that consistently, and I don't think they have one on the Roster that will do that THIS YEAR. I don't see Tampa having a diverse enough Offense, and enough playmakers to protect Ward from taking a beating, and based on his prior Seasons, I find it hard to believe that he won't miss time due to injuries. For the record, I think Winslow is going to take a beating and miss time as well, and that will have a further negative impact on all facets of the TB Offense.

Ward was an excellent complimentary piece to the Giants Earth, Wind and Fire Scheme, and I think they'll miss him until Danny Ware and Andre Brown prove themselves, but I think the stars are lined up against him for a successful '09 Season in Tampa Bay.

I see him as a high risk / moderate reward part of a Fantasy RB2BC, with possible upside in PPR Leagues.

Optimistic 16 Game Totals:

200 Carries / 768 Yards / 2 TDR

48 Receptions / 360 Yards / 3TDRec

3.8 ypc is optimistic? My projections are pretty much in line with yours, with about 20 less carries.

 

[Tanner9919]

how does Earnest Graham factor into the equation? I know when the OC Jagodzinski was brought on, he raved about Graham and then Tampa went out and signed Ward.

he doesn't..I mean,the starting RB position was gift-wrapped for Graham last season and he did nothing with it. Ward had a decent ypc avg against some of the better defenses in the NFL last season..I think he'll be just fine..

Caddy is finished, there is no threat of him taking away any playing time from either Graham or Ward.

all Ward does is produce when asked to..

the season starts out with RBBC then Graham gets hurt and Ward becomes the full time starter..

Bucs rushed 451 times last season,449 in 2007..

With that in mind, Ward should easily get about 250/1125 (4.5)/7td, 40/375/2

Ward could see upwards of 300 carries depending on Graham's health, and we already know Caddy is definitely not in the mix

 

[bigern1000]

Positives:

* Greater part of a timeshare, I can see 70-30 Ward/Graham for the bulk of the carries

* Terrific O-line, which he was able to take advantage of with Big Blue and should continue to do the same

* Relatively fresh for a 29-year old without too much mileage on the tires

Negatives:

* Uncertainty at QB and how well the offense is going to flow, whether with McCown, Byron, or Freeman

* Lack of proven WR talent outside of Bryant (who I'm not that high on anyway) will allow Ds to stack the line and key the run

I can see 275-1200-9 rushing, 35-250-2 receiving

 

[Bayhawks]

It will be 60-40...until Grahm gets hurt. But worst case scenario, he proved last year he can get 1000 in a comittee/backup role. I know the TDs are a concern, but c'mon...EG is not a TD threat. I think Ward should get 1350 yds, 7 TDS/ 200 rec Yd 1 TD EASY

Tampa has an above average Oline, and i wouldnt say the NFC South is particuraly tough against the run.

This years Michael Turner!!!

How do you figure? In the last two years, Ward got 6 carries inside the 5, and converted just 2 into TDs. Graham received 20, and converted 8 into TDs. (Jacobs had 21 attempts, and converted 13). I'd say that even if Ward does get the bulk of the carries, Graham is most definitely a TD threat.

 

[Michael Fox Fan]

Ward had a decent ypc avg against some of the better defenses in the NFL last season..I think he'll be just fine..

Yeah, running behind the Giants o-line. How much of his success was due to the line + Jacobs beating down opposing defenses?

 

[Boston]

People will label Ward a "career backup" and point out how he hardly sniffed the field during his first three-four seasons in the NFL, but seem to forget that he was behind guys like Curtis Martin (Hall of Famer), Lamont Jordan, Tiki Barber (borderline Hall of Famer) and Brandon Jacobs. It's hard to really make a statement as to his talent level based on being a backup to those guys. He did end up making Ryan Grant expendable and held off Ahamad Bradshaw last season despite the fact the Bradshaw was the Giants best RB during their SuperBowl run in the playoffs in 2007. There is talent there if you watched him run - he's a pretty complete back. People seem to think he's small because he played the "lightning" to Jacob's "thunder", but at 5'11", 228 pounds he's actually a pretty large back capable of GL carries. 1,145 yards rushing, 6 TDs40 receptions, 265 yards receiving, 1 TD

I agree with this. IMO the big question is will Ward benefit or be hurt by Tampa being a bad team this year (which on paper seems to be the case). If Tampa is down a bunch of games is Ward going to get those dump off passes or draws in these situations that he can turn into an extra 25-35 yards and a TD here or there and fluff up his numbers. Or will they limit his time because they are rebuilding and they don't want to put on too much mileage on him. My guess is when you sign a 29 year RB to decent money your only concern is production right now, especially with a new HC who doesn't need to be involved in a total disaster his first year on the job.At the end of the day I see Ward being the type of guy who's draft position will fluctuate greatly from league-to-league. There is a definite case to be made against his situation but I've seen enough from him to believe that given the opportunity he will produce and be an effective fantasy RB. I don't think his ceiling is huge but I do think he'll make his owners happy as long as they're not reaching for him.

 

[Traders2001]

Some are pushing it big time .

180 rushes - 740 yards - 5 Tds rushing

30 receptions - 300 yards - 1 td

Thats about right .

 

[ajopiela]

2-5

8-20.....That's the same percentage. Ward wasnt getting as many looks as Grahm was because he had Jacobs. Grahm might be a slightly better short yardage runner....but whose to say Ward won't get a few more looks...

Not saying your totally wrong, im just saying im not either IMO

 

[Bayhawks]

2-5 8-20.....That's the same percentage. Ward wasnt getting as many looks as Grahm was because he had Jacobs. Grahm might be a slightly better short yardage runner....but whose to say Ward won't get a few more looks...Not saying your totally wrong, im just saying im not either IMO

Ward was 2 for 6, not 2 for 5.You said "but c'mon...EG is not a TD threat." He converted 40% of his goal line touches into TDs-I'd say that is a TD threat.You were wrong.

 

[Banger]

2-5 8-20.....That's the same percentage. Ward wasnt getting as many looks as Grahm was because he had Jacobs. Grahm might be a slightly better short yardage runner....but whose to say Ward won't get a few more looks...Not saying your totally wrong, im just saying im not either IMO

Ward was 2 for 6, not 2 for 5.You said "but c'mon...EG is not a TD threat." He converted 40% of his goal line touches into TDs-I'd say that is a TD threat.You were wrong.

I'd say the sample sizes are too small to make a determination either way.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Ward will turn 29 before the season starts. He has never had more than 180 carries. Never had mroe than 3 rushing TDs in a season.

I like Dodd's projections on him.

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

Ward will turn 29 before the season starts. He has never had more than 180 carries. Never had mroe than 3 rushing TDs in a season.

I like Dodd's projections on him.

Ward is a year or two older than Turner.Entering last season, Turner had never topped 80 carries or 3 TDs.

He tacked on about 300 carries and 16 TDs to his previous year's totals.

edit: and I'd imagine Ward catches more than 6 balls.

2nd edit for typing the names backwards.

 

[moderated]

Ward will turn 29 before the season starts. He has never had more than 180 carries. Never had mroe than 3 rushing TDs in a season. I like Dodd's projections on him.

Turner is a year or two older than Ward.

No he's not. Turner is a couple years younger.

 

[Bayhawks]

2-5 8-20.....That's the same percentage. Ward wasnt getting as many looks as Grahm was because he had Jacobs. Grahm might be a slightly better short yardage runner....but whose to say Ward won't get a few more looks...Not saying your totally wrong, im just saying im not either IMO

Ward was 2 for 6, not 2 for 5.You said "but c'mon...EG is not a TD threat." He converted 40% of his goal line touches into TDs-I'd say that is a TD threat.You were wrong.

I'd say the sample sizes are too small to make a determination either way.

Really? Would you say Brandon Jacobs is a goal-line threat? Because he only had one more (21) goal line carry than Graham. If you're willing/able to say Jacobs is a goal-line threat (and most people would say that), then you have to admit that the sample size for Graham isn't too small to make the same declaration.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Ward will turn 29 before the season starts. He has never had more than 180 carries. Never had mroe than 3 rushing TDs in a season.

I like Dodd's projections on him.

Ward is a year or two older than Turner.Entering last season, Turner had never topped 80 carries or 3 TDs.

He tacked on about 300 carries and 16 TDs to his previous year's totals.

edit: and I'd imagine Ward catches more than 6 balls.

2nd edit for typing the names backwards.

Ward and Turner are built so differently, not sure that would be the best comparison.

 

[Game Time]

ANy news on this situation... Is Caddy really the guy now?

 

[War Eagle]

ANy news on this situation... Is Caddy really the guy now?

Unfortunately it's going to be a wait and see.I don't believe the 2-2-1 plan will hold up at all. Caddy did not look his old explosive, quick self in the pre-season game but he gives the team a boost when he's in and he did show good vision and speed. Ward needs to play well this week and continue to play well. Should be 45-45-10 Caddy-Ward-Graham, with the hot hand taking carries away from the other week to week.