Player Spotlight: Dez Bryant, WR, Dallas Cowboys (1 Viewer)

[Jason Wood]

2013 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. This year, we plan to publish more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters.

As always we will post a list of players to be discussed each week. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discuss expectations for the player in question.

Thread Topic: Dez Bryant, WR, Dallas Cowboys

Player Page Link: Dez Bryant Player Page

Each article will include:

• Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
• Links to thoughtful viewpoints from around the Web
• FBG Projections
  

The Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

• Focus commentary on the player (or players) in question, and your expectations for said player (or players)
• Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
• Avoid redundancies or things like "good posting" ... this should be about incremental analysis or debate
  

While not a requirement, we strongly encourage you to provide your own projections for the player (players):

Projections should include:

• For QBs: Attempts, Completions, Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Attempts, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
• For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
• For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
  

Now let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

 

[donkshow]

The ending of last season was really just the tip of the iceberg. I have Dez finishing WR2 with potential to unseat Calvin Johnson this year in fantasy points as the Top WR. Now, that's asking a lot given the lack of TD's Johnson had last year that should surely go up. I just don't think he'll get as many yards. Bush being there should decrease the passing attempts this season, but not substantially.

Obviously a more conservative prediction will be a Top 3-5 spot for Bryant. He seems to have put behind all his off-field issues and is working within the organization to keep it that way. Romo is an underrated passer IMO, and once he gained trust in Bryant, the he went off.

1600 yards and 12 TD's and well over 100 catches will be his ceiling and I think he can reach that.

 

[meyerj31]

The ending of last season was really just the tip of the iceberg. I have Dez finishing WR2 with potential to unseat Calvin Johnson this year in fantasy points as the Top WR. Now, that's asking a lot given the lack of TD's Johnson had last year that should surely go up. I just don't think he'll get as many yards. Bush being there should decrease the passing attempts this season, but not substantially.

Obviously a more conservative prediction will be a Top 3-5 spot for Bryant. He seems to have put behind all his off-field issues and is working within the organization to keep it that way. Romo is an underrated passer IMO, and once he gained trust in Bryant, the he went off.

1600 yards and 12 TD's and well over 100 catches.

Easy there killer.

I'm a big fan of Dez and got him somewhat cheap in 10 of 12 leagues last year (and won quite a few of them but 1600 yards is a pretty high projection. Dallas threw a lot last year because the running game was awful (o-line blows and Murray is constantly hurt). Perhaps neither of those are really fixed this year, so maybe it will happen again.

I also wouldn't compare Calvin and Dez. Calvin is a rock star on and off the field and has one of the best work ethics/football IQs of any WR out there (except maybe Fitz). Add that to the most dominate physical specimen and you got an unbeatable combination. Dez isn't upsetting Calvin unless there's an injury.

Still, he's a beast. I'd say 1350 yards, 10 TDs, 90 catches is reasonable.

 

[texasbirdfan]

Still working on routes according to local insiders. Injury for him should be just as concearing as Amendola the way he plays with abandon.

13 games

93 catches

1250 yards

 

[donkshow]

The ending of last season was really just the tip of the iceberg. I have Dez finishing WR2 with potential to unseat Calvin Johnson this year in fantasy points as the Top WR. Now, that's asking a lot given the lack of TD's Johnson had last year that should surely go up. I just don't think he'll get as many yards. Bush being there should decrease the passing attempts this season, but not substantially.

Obviously a more conservative prediction will be a Top 3-5 spot for Bryant. He seems to have put behind all his off-field issues and is working within the organization to keep it that way. Romo is an underrated passer IMO, and once he gained trust in Bryant, the he went off.

1600 yards and 12 TD's and well over 100 catches.

Easy there killer.

I'm a big fan of Dez and got him somewhat cheap in 10 of 12 leagues last year (and won quite a few of them but 1600 yards is a pretty high projection. Dallas threw a lot last year because the running game was awful (o-line blows and Murray is constantly hurt). Perhaps neither of those are really fixed this year, so maybe it will happen again.

I also wouldn't compare Calvin and Dez. Calvin is a rock star on and off the field and has one of the best work ethics/football IQs of any WR out there (except maybe Fitz). Add that to the most dominate physical specimen and you got an unbeatable combination. Dez isn't upsetting Calvin unless there's an injury.

Still, he's a beast. I'd say 1350 yards, 10 TDs, 90 catches is reasonable.

Woops, I definitely left out a crucial part of my prediction. That's what I have as his ceiling this year, and what I think he CAN hit.

 

[JPeso]

100 catches / 1500 yards / 14 TDs = 334 PPR / 21.3 PPR PPG

 

[BuckeyeChaos]

more?

 

[FF Ninja]

His splits and Miles Austin's splits are interesting. Dez really took off around the time Austin injured his hamstring again last year. Have a look:

TGT REC YDS TD066 042 502 02072 050 879 10068 041 637 04051 025 306 02Three things are apparent here. Bryant had some big plays which bumped his numbers a lot. His 17.6 ypr in the second half is a pace he's unlikely to repeat, but he's a talented guy, so I don't think his 12 ypr from the first half is to be expected, either.

The second is that Austin was much more productive than Bryant for half the year when he was healthy. I've read that Austin and the trainers have specifically been targeting him hamstrings this year (that's what has held him back the last two years). I feel like it is prudent to expect him to be healthy this year. With Austin healthy, I don't expect Bryant to fade away or anything, but we probably should not expect a continuation of the second half of last year. I think Bryant and Austin will both be very productive, leading to Bryant being overvalued right now and Austin being extremely undervalued.

My third and final observation is purely the numbers. Romo shattered his career high in pass attempts (98 more than 2nd most). The number of targets is likely to decrease in 2013. Additionally, Bryant caught a phenomenal 67% of his passes last year. Romo is a pretty accurate passer, but 67% is still high for a WR who runs a fair amount of deep routes. If we're being realistic, that number is more likely to come down than to stay put or improve.

Bryant: 130 targets x 62% = 81 rec x 15.5 ypr = 1256 yds 10 TD

Austin: 120 targets x 62% = 74 rec x 15.5 ypr = 1147 yds 8 TD

 

[Shutout]

Good likelihood to be the #1 WR in fantasy.

The talent is clearly there, the attitude is in the right place now, the Cowboys throw a lot by necessity, and Jerry Jones absolutely wants Romo and Dez to be bigger than life (and say what you want, that actually does count for something in this particular scenario).

The one guy that the overwhelming majority will say will prevent him from being the #1 WR in fantasy is Calvin and there are two things to take from that. First, that it is clear that everyone sees the potential for him to be better than anyone, if it just weren't for that pesky Megatron. Second, that people expect Calvin and the Lions to continue to throw at the absurd pace they have. That could happen. Probably will. But it should at least be noted somewhere that they might not just due to being a better team this year, adding Reggie Bush, Broyles being healthy, etc. Also, overall, it might be worth noting that since so many people DO see Calvin as the legit roadblock for Dez, it also says that A)any down year from Calvin (likely would only be due to injury to him or Stafford) opens the door and B)there really isn't any overall long lists of roadblocks.

As far as hitting the numbers being mentioned above, Yeah, I think we have to absolutely see it as a possibility.

100 or so catches? The Cowboys throw a lot, as already mentioned and he is clearly the dominant receiver on that team and perhaps one of the top handful in the league. Those types of players tend to flirt with 90+ a year by design.

1600 yards? Looks like a BIG BIG number but when you put it into reference, Andre Johnson did it last year on the Texans, averaging 14.3 ypc and we don't really think of the Texans being a team that throws ad naseum. But what we do see similarly is that while, yes, Dez can blister you for a big deep bomb, he also does quite a bit of work doing things like AJ does and T.O. used to do in catching a 12 yard pass that becomes a 33 yard pass becasue he gets the YAC. If nothing else, Dez, himself, came within 200 yards of doing it last year so, is it reasonable he catches 14 more balls this year? I think it could be. If nothing else, he is one of the small handful of players playing right now that can and will have those 2-3 games a year where he skews the stats because he will have those games where he just simply dominates a team that has no answer for him. So when he gets those silly games (not too rediculous but lets say, about 170 yards), those make it much more manageable because after a couple of games like that, all he has to do is play all the games and hit 80-90 yards and there's your 1600. Most of the top Wrs in the league are going to be able to do that. Every top 10 Wr in the league last year hit at least 85/game, as reference.

10+ TDs? ALmost a certainty because he's the triple threat. He can bomb you, he can post-up in the redzone, and he can be the first look on any give play.

I generally don't like to be the guy that gets a bit too optimistic and thinks such lofty stats across the board are going to happen but there are a handful of players in the league that, once they arrive, that is pretty much the reality and I think Dez is now in that category of guys like Calvin, Welker when he was in New England, Gronk, Graham, Fitz with a good Qb, Brees, Rodgers, etc. There are just stars in the league that you know, given good health, are going to be big parts of the team's game each week and that compiles the numbers.

 

[amicsta]

His splits and Miles Austin's splits are interesting. Dez really took off around the time Austin injured his hamstring again last year. Have a look:

TGT REC YDS TD066 042 502 02072 050 879 10068 041 637 04051 025 306 02Three things are apparent here. Bryant had some big plays which bumped his numbers a lot. His 17.6 ypr in the second half is a pace he's unlikely to repeat, but he's a talented guy, so I don't think his 12 ypr from the first half is to be expected, either.

The second is that Austin was much more productive than Bryant for half the year when he was healthy. I've read that Austin and the trainers have specifically been targeting him hamstrings this year (that's what has held him back the last two years). I feel like it is prudent to expect him to be healthy this year. With Austin healthy, I don't expect Bryant to fade away or anything, but we probably should not expect a continuation of the second half of last year. I think Bryant and Austin will both be very productive, leading to Bryant being overvalued right now and Austin being extremely undervalued.

My third and final observation is purely the numbers. Romo shattered his career high in pass attempts (98 more than 2nd most). The number of targets is likely to decrease in 2013. Additionally, Bryant caught a phenomenal 67% of his passes last year. Romo is a pretty accurate passer, but 67% is still high for a WR who runs a fair amount of deep routes. If we're being realistic, that number is more likely to come down than to stay put or improve.

Bryant: 130 targets x 62% = 81 rec x 15.5 ypr = 1256 yds 10 TD

Austin: 120 targets x 62% = 74 rec x 15.5 ypr = 1147 yds 8 TD

I agree that it probably took the Austin injury for Dez to do what he did, but after the second half that Dez had, I don't think the Cowboys go back to how they were utilizing the two before he got hurt. Now that Pandora's Box is open, so to speak, I expect Dez to be utilized early and often. He has established that he is a freak talent and if he's now tapped into that, the sky's the limit. I have Romo projected for 587 attempts, and I think that's still good enough for this:

141 targets (only 24%), 90 receptions (about 64%), 17.4 YPR, 1566 yds, 14 TD

 

[meyerj31]

His splits and Miles Austin's splits are interesting. Dez really took off around the time Austin injured his hamstring again last year. Have a look:

TGT REC YDS TD066 042 502 02072 050 879 10068 041 637 04051 025 306 02Three things are apparent here. Bryant had some big plays which bumped his numbers a lot. His 17.6 ypr in the second half is a pace he's unlikely to repeat, but he's a talented guy, so I don't think his 12 ypr from the first half is to be expected, either.

The second is that Austin was much more productive than Bryant for half the year when he was healthy. I've read that Austin and the trainers have specifically been targeting him hamstrings this year (that's what has held him back the last two years). I feel like it is prudent to expect him to be healthy this year. With Austin healthy, I don't expect Bryant to fade away or anything, but we probably should not expect a continuation of the second half of last year. I think Bryant and Austin will both be very productive, leading to Bryant being overvalued right now and Austin being extremely undervalued.

My third and final observation is purely the numbers. Romo shattered his career high in pass attempts (98 more than 2nd most). The number of targets is likely to decrease in 2013. Additionally, Bryant caught a phenomenal 67% of his passes last year. Romo is a pretty accurate passer, but 67% is still high for a WR who runs a fair amount of deep routes. If we're being realistic, that number is more likely to come down than to stay put or improve.

Bryant: 130 targets x 62% = 81 rec x 15.5 ypr = 1256 yds 10 TD

Austin: 120 targets x 62% = 74 rec x 15.5 ypr = 1147 yds 8 TD

I agree that it probably took the Austin injury for Dez to do what he did, but after the second half that Dez had, I don't think the Cowboys go back to how they were utilizing the two before he got hurt. Now that Pandora's Box is open, so to speak, I expect Dez to be utilized early and often. He has established that he is a freak talent and if he's now tapped into that, the sky's the limit. I have Romo projected for 587 attempts, and I think that's still good enough for this:

141 targets (only 24%), 90 receptions (about 64%), 17.4 YPR, 1566 yds, 14 TD

One of the most common FF mistakes is taking the last "X" games from last year and project it out to a yearly basis. That kind of analysis is way too simplistic. Dez is clearly a stud talent but ... 1500 yards? Projections should be average expected... meaning he's 50% to go over/under that amount. Dez blew up last year and only had a 92/1382/12 line, with the other receivers hurt and little run game for him to compete.

I think it's a gross fallacy to project him anywhere over his line from last year. The number of targets on a per game basis from the end of last year is almost certain to decrease somewhat as the offense tries to become more balanced, and Austin is a talented, yet frequently hurt, player.

All that said I could see exactly the line he had last year, just evened out a bit instead of a slow start / hot finish. Still enough for a top 5 WR season.

90/1350/12

 

[We Tigers]

Deeply biased Dez owner here. Sky's the limit. I think a totally healthy Austin can make a bit of a dent, but he did play all 16 last year so it's not like he put up that 940/6 line in 10 games or anything. Dez as 1 and Austin as 2 is simply the new paradigm and the one Dallas has been hoping for since they drafted Bryant. If anyone's targets are going to dip, I think it'll be Witten's, who had 26 more targets last year than he's had in a season since Austin or Bryant came onto the scene. I'll cut a few passing TDs off Romo's numbers due to the high attempts and restated commitment to the run, but I expect only a marginal improvement there. This team is built for the air.

I lop 10% off projections for players I own, which puts my corrected-for-mancrush take on Dez at 86 rec, 1290 yards, 11 TDs.

 

[Iwannabeacowboybaby!]

Dez is maturing on the field, he's not quite as raw as he was as a rookie and he progressed last season and to me clearly is the WR 1 in Dallas where last year entering the season is was more 1a and 1b. He's still rough around the edges but he's tough, has a passing QB and he should put up very good numbers.

92 catches, 1200 yards and 12 tds

 

[FF Ninja]

His splits and Miles Austin's splits are interesting. Dez really took off around the time Austin injured his hamstring again last year. Have a look:

TGT REC YDS TD066 042 502 02072 050 879 10068 041 637 04051 025 306 02Three things are apparent here. Bryant had some big plays which bumped his numbers a lot. His 17.6 ypr in the second half is a pace he's unlikely to repeat, but he's a talented guy, so I don't think his 12 ypr from the first half is to be expected, either.

The second is that Austin was much more productive than Bryant for half the year when he was healthy. I've read that Austin and the trainers have specifically been targeting him hamstrings this year (that's what has held him back the last two years). I feel like it is prudent to expect him to be healthy this year. With Austin healthy, I don't expect Bryant to fade away or anything, but we probably should not expect a continuation of the second half of last year. I think Bryant and Austin will both be very productive, leading to Bryant being overvalued right now and Austin being extremely undervalued.

My third and final observation is purely the numbers. Romo shattered his career high in pass attempts (98 more than 2nd most). The number of targets is likely to decrease in 2013. Additionally, Bryant caught a phenomenal 67% of his passes last year. Romo is a pretty accurate passer, but 67% is still high for a WR who runs a fair amount of deep routes. If we're being realistic, that number is more likely to come down than to stay put or improve.

Bryant: 130 targets x 62% = 81 rec x 15.5 ypr = 1256 yds 10 TD

Austin: 120 targets x 62% = 74 rec x 15.5 ypr = 1147 yds 8 TD

I agree that it probably took the Austin injury for Dez to do what he did, but after the second half that Dez had, I don't think the Cowboys go back to how they were utilizing the two before he got hurt. Now that Pandora's Box is open, so to speak, I expect Dez to be utilized early and often. He has established that he is a freak talent and if he's now tapped into that, the sky's the limit. I have Romo projected for 587 attempts, and I think that's still good enough for this:

141 targets (only 24%), 90 receptions (about 64%), 17.4 YPR, 1566 yds, 14 TD

So let me get this straight, you expect Romo to throw about 10% less passes and Bryant to get more targets than last year? Do you expect Austin to limp through more than half the season this year?

You say "only" 24%, but 24% is a big chunk. That typically occurs on teams where the WR1 is much better than the WR2 and/or there is little TE usage. See Indy, Detroit, Chicago, and Houston. But Dallas relies heavily on Witten and Miles Austin's breakout season was arguably more impressive than Bryant's considering he did it in only 12 games (76/1239/10 in last 12 games, 81/1320/11 in 16 games and only 124 targets). Since that season, he's been stuck with Kitna at QB for a season and had back-to-back seasons marred with a hamstring injury. Austin just turned 29 a few weeks ago. If he's healthy, I really think we are looking at a 1 vs. 1a situation rather than Austin being a clear #2 guy on that team. Given his talent, there's no reason to force it into double teams to Bryant.

Edit: removed strange double quote

 

[Bayhawks]

You say "only" 24%, but 24% is a big chunk. That typically occurs on teams where the WR1 is much better than the WR2 and/or there is little TE usage.

I think you've provided some good insight in this thread, actually caused me to re-think my Dallas/Bryant projections. However, I'm not sure I agree with this (the bolded). I went back through the numbers in 2012 (which admittedly could be an anomaly, but I don't have the time to run the numbers for each team, for multiple years).

In 2012, there were 16 teams who saw their WR1 get 24% (or more) of the targets. **In addition, there were two teams who saw their WR1 get 23%***. Of those 16 teams, 8 fit your criteria of having a substantially inferior WR2 or little TE usage. (Buffalo, Cincy, Houston, Indy, KC, Ari, Chi, & Det). 6 of the remaining 8 definitely don't fit that criteria: Denver, Miami, New England, Atlanta, NYG, and TB; while the remaining two are "iffy:" Carolina didn't have a great WR2, but they heavily utilized their TE, and SF which had Crabreee as their WR1, but I don't know if he's substantially superior to their other WRs, AND they have Davis at TE. Furthermore, the two teams with WR1s get 23% of the targets also don't fit your criteria. Neither Baltimore or Seattle have great WR1s and/or weak WR2s.

That being said, Romo did lock onto Terrell Owens when he was in town. He had Witten there, as well, but his WR2's were Terry Glenn and Patrick Crayton.

If you think Austin is superior to Glenn/Crayton and Witten hasn't declined signficantly since '06-'08, then expecting Bryant to get 24% (or more) of the targets seems unwise. However, if you think Witten has dropped off (I don't) or that Austin is not (at this point) superior to Glenn/Crayton, you should expect those type of target numbers for Bryant.

 

[FF Ninja]

You say "only" 24%, but 24% is a big chunk. That typically occurs on teams where the WR1 is much better than the WR2 and/or there is little TE usage.

I think you've provided some good insight in this thread, actually caused me to re-think my Dallas/Bryant projections. However, I'm not sure I agree with this (the bolded). I went back through the numbers in 2012 (which admittedly could be an anomaly, but I don't have the time to run the numbers for each team, for multiple years).

In 2012, there were 16 teams who saw their WR1 get 24% (or more) of the targets. **In addition, there were two teams who saw their WR1 get 23%***. Of those 16 teams, 8 fit your criteria of having a substantially inferior WR2 or little TE usage. (Buffalo, Cincy, Houston, Indy, KC, Ari, Chi, & Det). 6 of the remaining 8 definitely don't fit that criteria: Denver, Miami, New England, Atlanta, NYG, and TB; while the remaining two are "iffy:" Carolina didn't have a great WR2, but they heavily utilized their TE, and SF which had Crabreee as their WR1, but I don't know if he's substantially superior to their other WRs, AND they have Davis at TE. Furthermore, the two teams with WR1s get 23% of the targets also don't fit your criteria. Neither Baltimore or Seattle have great WR1s and/or weak WR2s.

That being said, Romo did lock onto Terrell Owens when he was in town. He had Witten there, as well, but his WR2's were Terry Glenn and Patrick Crayton.

If you think Austin is superior to Glenn/Crayton and Witten hasn't declined signficantly since '06-'08, then expecting Bryant to get 24% (or more) of the targets seems unwise. However, if you think Witten has dropped off (I don't) or that Austin is not (at this point) superior to Glenn/Crayton, you should expect those type of target numbers for Bryant.

Carolina definitely fits. Lafell only got 76 targets. SF fits, too. Just because Davis is awesome doesn't mean that 61 targets isn't a pittance. Additionally, the WR2 saw very few targets. I'm not sure how Miami didn't fit the criteria. They lacked a WR2 and a TE. I also think the Giants fit the criteria last year due to Nicks' injury and Bennett wasn't used the same after his knee injury. The Bucs didn't really utilize the TE much, so if anything they are iffy.

I should point out that Atlanta didn't actually fit the criteria, although just barely. White was at 23%. Boldin was actually at 21%, so Baltimore wasn't at 23%. And Rice was at 21%, not 23%.

I think the problem was that you used FBG stat which for some reason include playoff targets in season totals but they don't include playoff attempts for the QB, so your data was skewed. I've made that mistake before, too.

Either way, I think I'm splitting hairs. We seem to agree on this topic.

 

[amicsta]

His splits and Miles Austin's splits are interesting. Dez really took off around the time Austin injured his hamstring again last year. Have a look:

TGT REC YDS TD066 042 502 02072 050 879 10068 041 637 04051 025 306 02Three things are apparent here. Bryant had some big plays which bumped his numbers a lot. His 17.6 ypr in the second half is a pace he's unlikely to repeat, but he's a talented guy, so I don't think his 12 ypr from the first half is to be expected, either.

The second is that Austin was much more productive than Bryant for half the year when he was healthy. I've read that Austin and the trainers have specifically been targeting him hamstrings this year (that's what has held him back the last two years). I feel like it is prudent to expect him to be healthy this year. With Austin healthy, I don't expect Bryant to fade away or anything, but we probably should not expect a continuation of the second half of last year. I think Bryant and Austin will both be very productive, leading to Bryant being overvalued right now and Austin being extremely undervalued.

My third and final observation is purely the numbers. Romo shattered his career high in pass attempts (98 more than 2nd most). The number of targets is likely to decrease in 2013. Additionally, Bryant caught a phenomenal 67% of his passes last year. Romo is a pretty accurate passer, but 67% is still high for a WR who runs a fair amount of deep routes. If we're being realistic, that number is more likely to come down than to stay put or improve.

Bryant: 130 targets x 62% = 81 rec x 15.5 ypr = 1256 yds 10 TD

Austin: 120 targets x 62% = 74 rec x 15.5 ypr = 1147 yds 8 TD

I agree that it probably took the Austin injury for Dez to do what he did, but after the second half that Dez had, I don't think the Cowboys go back to how they were utilizing the two before he got hurt. Now that Pandora's Box is open, so to speak, I expect Dez to be utilized early and often. He has established that he is a freak talent and if he's now tapped into that, the sky's the limit. I have Romo projected for 587 attempts, and I think that's still good enough for this:

141 targets (only 24%), 90 receptions (about 64%), 17.4 YPR, 1566 yds, 14 TD

So let me get this straight, you expect Romo to throw about 10% less passes and Bryant to get more targets than last year? Do you expect Austin to limp through more than half the season this year?

You say "only" 24%, but 24% is a big chunk. That typically occurs on teams where the WR1 is much better than the WR2 and/or there is little TE usage. See Indy, Detroit, Chicago, and Houston. But Dallas relies heavily on Witten and Miles Austin's breakout season was arguably more impressive than Bryant's considering he did it in only 12 games (76/1239/10 in last 12 games, 81/1320/11 in 16 games and only 124 targets). Since that season, he's been stuck with Kitna at QB for a season and had back-to-back seasons marred with a hamstring injury. Austin just turned 29 a few weeks ago. If he's healthy, I really think we are looking at a 1 vs. 1a situation rather than Austin being a clear #2 guy on that team. Given his talent, there's no reason to force it into double teams to Bryant.

Edit: removed strange double quote

In a word, yes, yes I do. We can talk about who's breakout season was more impressive, but the reality is that Dez Bryant is one of the most physically gifted receivers in the NFL and 32 out of 32 teams will tell you that. Players with that kind of talent get the football: AJ Green, Calvin Johnson, etc. (probably aren't that many more). It may have been 1 and 1a heading into last season, but I really dont see how that could continue when we've seen what Dez is capable of.

 

[BuckeyeChaos]

I'm impressed with the potential here. However some others have raised real concerns with Miles Austin taking some production away. The real concern I have (I hope its overblown in mind) is the "knucklehead" factor. Is this over for good or could/will it return? I'm curious what others think about this, especially the guys predicting the really big numbers for him.

 

[We Tigers]

I hope Austin taking away opportunities from Dez is a narrative that catches on in the next month. Easy money...

 

[Shutout]

I'm impressed with the potential here. However some others have raised real concerns with Miles Austin taking some production away. The real concern I have (I hope its overblown in mind) is the "knucklehead" factor. Is this over for good or could/will it return? I'm curious what others think about this, especially the guys predicting the really big numbers for him.

None of us can never know the answer to that. Six weeks ago, how many of us would have ever even dared dreamed what was going on with Aaron Hernandez.

In the end, all you can go on is the trend (something we do a lot of in FF) and the trend looks positive today.

 

[silentcoach]

Dez is one of the fews wrs, if any, that can unseat Calvin Johnson for the number 1 wr. He is crazy efficient and is the RZ guy. The only think to not like his attitude. He would seem disinterested at times and then his gameplay flops--remember when he would completely disappear during the second halves of games 2 years ago? If that has been taken care of, the sky is the limit with this guy.

 

[FF Ninja]

In a word, yes, yes I do. We can talk about who's breakout season was more impressive, but the reality is that Dez Bryant is one of the most physically gifted receivers in the NFL and 32 out of 32 teams will tell you that. Players with that kind of talent get the football: AJ Green, Calvin Johnson, etc. (probably aren't that many more). It may have been 1 and 1a heading into last season, but I really dont see how that could continue when we've seen what Dez is capable of.

What has he shown us he's capable of? Putting Miles Austin-esque stats?

Look at Austin's game log. His first 8 weeks were pretty good last year before injuring his hamstring, but look at his first two weeks of 2011 before injuring his hamstring, then the first 4 weeks of 2010 before Romo got injured, and then the last 12 weeks of 2009 when he was a starter. Sick numbers if you average it out. People have short memories here in the SP. Bryant was a dud for 8 games last year, but people only remember the ridiculous stretch run. I'd much rather draft Fitzgerald early and snag Miles Austin late than use an early pick on Bryant. I think people are in for a disappointment here. The defense will be focused on him this year. After his poor early performance last year, I think he caught some teams by surprise. Sure, his 9/224/2 performance came kind of late, but it was against New Orleans. Don't forget Austin has a 10/250/2 on his resume.

Anything Bryant did last year had already been done by Austin and he's still just 29. I could be wrong, but I don't think Dez's measurables are any better than Austin's. Other than Austin's injury risk, I can't find a reason for the discrepancy between the two players other than typical knee jerk reactions by the fantasy community. Dez's value may never be higher than it is right now. Coming off a year in which Romo threw almost 100 more passes than he ever had and while Austin was dealing with injuries... I feel like hype has inflated his value too much. I predict he finishes below his ADP. Bryant fanboys just aren't seeing clearly right now.

 

[We Tigers]

Your points are decent, but you really undercut them with stuff like "Bryant was a dud for 8 games last year." No, his first half wasn't close to as good as his second half, but through week 8 he still had a pair of 100-yard games, a 95-yard game with 2 TDs in week 4, and averaged 6 catches a game. He's also a player who's gotten notably better each of his three years in the league, so people are paying a bit for upside.

I do think Austin is a bit undervalued, as his ADP is in the mid-30s and he comfortably put up WR25 numbers last year.

 

[silentcoach]

In a word, yes, yes I do. We can talk about who's breakout season was more impressive, but the reality is that Dez Bryant is one of the most physically gifted receivers in the NFL and 32 out of 32 teams will tell you that. Players with that kind of talent get the football: AJ Green, Calvin Johnson, etc. (probably aren't that many more). It may have been 1 and 1a heading into last season, but I really dont see how that could continue when we've seen what Dez is capable of.

What has he shown us he's capable of? Putting Miles Austin-esque stats?

Look at Austin's game log. His first 8 weeks were pretty good last year before injuring his hamstring, but look at his first two weeks of 2011 before injuring his hamstring, then the first 4 weeks of 2010 before Romo got injured, and then the last 12 weeks of 2009 when he was a starter. Sick numbers if you average it out. People have short memories here in the SP. Bryant was a dud for 8 games last year, but people only remember the ridiculous stretch run. I'd much rather draft Fitzgerald early and snag Miles Austin late than use an early pick on Bryant. I think people are in for a disappointment here. The defense will be focused on him this year. After his poor early performance last year, I think he caught some teams by surprise. Sure, his 9/224/2 performance came kind of late, but it was against New Orleans. Don't forget Austin has a 10/250/2 on his resume.

Anything Bryant did last year had already been done by Austin and he's still just 29. I could be wrong, but I don't think Dez's measurables are any better than Austin's. Other than Austin's injury risk, I can't find a reason for the discrepancy between the two players other than typical knee jerk reactions by the fantasy community. Dez's value may never be higher than it is right now. Coming off a year in which Romo threw almost 100 more passes than he ever had and while Austin was dealing with injuries... I feel like hype has inflated his value too much. I predict he finishes below his ADP. Bryant fanboys just aren't seeing clearly right now.

Dez is the better red zone threat. Rookie year 6 tds in 12 games (on pace for 8), 2nd year 9 tds in 15 games (on pace for 10tds) and 3rd year 12 tds in 16 games.

Austin 7 tds 3 years ago, 7 tds in 10 games (on pace for 11) and then 6tds last year.

Dez is the better catcher. Rookie year 62%, 2nd year 61%, 3rd year 67%

Miles 3 years ago 55%, 59% and 58% last year.

Target progression

Dez rookie year on pace for 97, 2nd year 111 and 138 last year (at the very least there is a progression that his targets are increasing).

Austin 119, on pace for 116 and then 119. His targets seem to be consistently <120.

So, what do we have?

Dez is the better RZ threat, has better hands, and his targets seems to be on the rise while Austin's targets have capped at 119. At 119 targets (which is still a healthy amount) Austin will be capped around 70 receptions.

Anything Bryant did last year had already been done by Austin and he's still just 29.

To comment on your bolded quote: Austin has NOT been the better RZ target NOR are his hands as good as Dez's. While Dez has been in town Austin has never had 12 tds nor has he even had a catch rate over 60%--certainly never even close to 67%. At least while Dez has been in town, Austin has not already done what Dez already has. Can he? That's a different discussion.

Anyhow, those are MY readings of the numbers .

 

[FF Ninja]

Your points are decent, but you really undercut them with stuff like "Bryant was a dud for 8 games last year." No, his first half wasn't close to as good as his second half, but through week 8 he still had a pair of 100-yard games, a 95-yard game with 2 TDs in week 4, and averaged 6 catches a game. He's also a player who's gotten notably better each of his three years in the league, so people are paying a bit for upside.

I do think Austin is a bit undervalued, as his ADP is in the mid-30s and he comfortably put up WR25 numbers last year.

Negative. He was WR36 through week 9. For where he was drafted, that is dud status.

He was WR1 from weeks 10 through 17, though.

During those same spans, Miles Austin dropped from 14 to 48 due to the hamstring.

 

[FF Ninja]

In a word, yes, yes I do. We can talk about who's breakout season was more impressive, but the reality is that Dez Bryant is one of the most physically gifted receivers in the NFL and 32 out of 32 teams will tell you that. Players with that kind of talent get the football: AJ Green, Calvin Johnson, etc. (probably aren't that many more). It may have been 1 and 1a heading into last season, but I really dont see how that could continue when we've seen what Dez is capable of.

What has he shown us he's capable of? Putting Miles Austin-esque stats?

Look at Austin's game log. His first 8 weeks were pretty good last year before injuring his hamstring, but look at his first two weeks of 2011 before injuring his hamstring, then the first 4 weeks of 2010 before Romo got injured, and then the last 12 weeks of 2009 when he was a starter. Sick numbers if you average it out. People have short memories here in the SP. Bryant was a dud for 8 games last year, but people only remember the ridiculous stretch run. I'd much rather draft Fitzgerald early and snag Miles Austin late than use an early pick on Bryant. I think people are in for a disappointment here. The defense will be focused on him this year. After his poor early performance last year, I think he caught some teams by surprise. Sure, his 9/224/2 performance came kind of late, but it was against New Orleans. Don't forget Austin has a 10/250/2 on his resume.

Anything Bryant did last year had already been done by Austin and he's still just 29. I could be wrong, but I don't think Dez's measurables are any better than Austin's. Other than Austin's injury risk, I can't find a reason for the discrepancy between the two players other than typical knee jerk reactions by the fantasy community. Dez's value may never be higher than it is right now. Coming off a year in which Romo threw almost 100 more passes than he ever had and while Austin was dealing with injuries... I feel like hype has inflated his value too much. I predict he finishes below his ADP. Bryant fanboys just aren't seeing clearly right now.

Dez is the better red zone threat. Rookie year 6 tds in 12 games (on pace for 8), 2nd year 9 tds in 15 games (on pace for 10tds) and 3rd year 12 tds in 16 games.

Austin 7 tds 3 years ago, 7 tds in 10 games (on pace for 11) and then 6tds last year.

Dez is the better catcher. Rookie year 62%, 2nd year 61%, 3rd year 67%

Miles 3 years ago 55%, 59% and 58% last year.

Target progression

Dez rookie year on pace for 97, 2nd year 111 and 138 last year (at the very least there is a progression that his targets are increasing).

Austin 119, on pace for 116 and then 119. His targets seem to be consistently <120.

So, what do we have?

Dez is the better RZ threat, has better hands, and his targets seems to be on the rise while Austin's targets have capped at 119. At 119 targets (which is still a healthy amount) Austin will be capped around 70 receptions.

Anything Bryant did last year had already been done by Austin and he's still just 29.

To comment on your bolded quote: Austin has NOT been the better RZ target NOR are his hands as good as Dez's. While Dez has been in town Austin has never had 12 tds nor has he even had a catch rate over 60%--certainly never even close to 67%. At least while Dez has been in town, Austin has not already done what Dez already has. Can he? That's a different discussion.

Anyhow, those are MY readings of the numbers .

In 2009, Miles caught 65% of his passes despite having more than twice the receiving yards of the WR2. In 2010, He only played four games with Romo. He caught 31 of 41 targets (76%) for 474 yds and 2 TD. The next two years he was hampered with hamstring issues. But to further the point, Austin has been dealing with the #1 CB while Bryant has received less attention. That could all change in 2013, which is all the more reason why Austin is a value pick and Bryant is likely to see a dip from last year's second half.

I'm not sure Dez is actually better in the red zone. He's the same height as Austin, but Austin has a better vertical. Plus, you just looked at lump sum of TDs. You didn't even analyze the red zone targets to reach your conclusion. That is both careless and lazy and makes for crap analysis. I guess I'll do it for you.

In three years Dez, in the red zone, has 8 targets for 5 TDs, 15 targets for 5, and 14 targets for 4.

In five years, Austin has 2 targets for 2 TDs, 23 for 4, 18 for 4, 14 for 4, and 13 for 2.

So Bryant might be a little better, but we don't exactly have a large sample size, and again, the last 2 years Austin has battle injuries and had Kitna 3 years ago. I'm not seeing anything conclusive here.

Next your target progression... yes, most WRs see their targets increase from year 1 to 2 to 3. You didn't uncover any hidden trend here. Furthermore, when the QB sets a career high in pass attempts, it's a bit foolish to keep projecting that upward trend in year 4 if you expect the QB to decrease his pass attempts. As for Austin's targets, he got 112 in 12 games in 2009. Had 41 in 4 games with Romoin 2010, then slipped to 78 in the last 12 games with Kitna. Started out 2011 with 24 targets for 14/233/4 in just two games and injured his hamstring in that game. That injury hampered him the rest of the season. Last year he was on pace for 136 targets before injuring his hamstring again in 2012.

So, you failed to prove Dez has better hands, your red zone analysis failed to analyze red zone stats, and your target projections failed to take injury or QB situation into account. Overall, you just look like a Dez owner who is blinded by optimism. I've got no dog in this fight. I don't own either one in long term leagues. I'm just looking at this from a redraft perspective.

P.S. I just found this article. Austin was dealing with hamstring issues in preseason last year, so it's possible he was never at full strength. Hopefully, the extra exercises will help him stay healthy this year.

 

[amicsta]

In a word, yes, yes I do. We can talk about who's breakout season was more impressive, but the reality is that Dez Bryant is one of the most physically gifted receivers in the NFL and 32 out of 32 teams will tell you that. Players with that kind of talent get the football: AJ Green, Calvin Johnson, etc. (probably aren't that many more). It may have been 1 and 1a heading into last season, but I really dont see how that could continue when we've seen what Dez is capable of.

What has he shown us he's capable of? Putting Miles Austin-esque stats?

Look at Austin's game log. His first 8 weeks were pretty good last year before injuring his hamstring, but look at his first two weeks of 2011 before injuring his hamstring, then the first 4 weeks of 2010 before Romo got injured, and then the last 12 weeks of 2009 when he was a starter. Sick numbers if you average it out. People have short memories here in the SP. Bryant was a dud for 8 games last year, but people only remember the ridiculous stretch run. I'd much rather draft Fitzgerald early and snag Miles Austin late than use an early pick on Bryant. I think people are in for a disappointment here. The defense will be focused on him this year. After his poor early performance last year, I think he caught some teams by surprise. Sure, his 9/224/2 performance came kind of late, but it was against New Orleans. Don't forget Austin has a 10/250/2 on his resume.

Anything Bryant did last year had already been done by Austin and he's still just 29. I could be wrong, but I don't think Dez's measurables are any better than Austin's. Other than Austin's injury risk, I can't find a reason for the discrepancy between the two players other than typical knee jerk reactions by the fantasy community. Dez's value may never be higher than it is right now. Coming off a year in which Romo threw almost 100 more passes than he ever had and while Austin was dealing with injuries... I feel like hype has inflated his value too much. I predict he finishes below his ADP. Bryant fanboys just aren't seeing clearly right now.

Dez is the better red zone threat. Rookie year 6 tds in 12 games (on pace for 8), 2nd year 9 tds in 15 games (on pace for 10tds) and 3rd year 12 tds in 16 games.

Austin 7 tds 3 years ago, 7 tds in 10 games (on pace for 11) and then 6tds last year.

Dez is the better catcher. Rookie year 62%, 2nd year 61%, 3rd year 67%

Miles 3 years ago 55%, 59% and 58% last year.

Target progression

Dez rookie year on pace for 97, 2nd year 111 and 138 last year (at the very least there is a progression that his targets are increasing).

Austin 119, on pace for 116 and then 119. His targets seem to be consistently <120.

So, what do we have?

Dez is the better RZ threat, has better hands, and his targets seems to be on the rise while Austin's targets have capped at 119. At 119 targets (which is still a healthy amount) Austin will be capped around 70 receptions.

Anything Bryant did last year had already been done by Austin and he's still just 29.

To comment on your bolded quote: Austin has NOT been the better RZ target NOR are his hands as good as Dez's. While Dez has been in town Austin has never had 12 tds nor has he even had a catch rate over 60%--certainly never even close to 67%. At least while Dez has been in town, Austin has not already done what Dez already has. Can he? That's a different discussion.

Anyhow, those are MY readings of the numbers .

In 2009, Miles caught 65% of his passes despite having more than twice the receiving yards of the WR2. In 2010, He only played four games with Romo. He caught 31 of 41 targets (76%) for 474 yds and 2 TD. The next two years he was hampered with hamstring issues. But to further the point, Austin has been dealing with the #1 CB while Bryant has received less attention. That could all change in 2013, which is all the more reason why Austin is a value pick and Bryant is likely to see a dip from last year's second half.

I'm not sure Dez is actually better in the red zone. He's the same height as Austin, but Austin has a better vertical. Plus, you just looked at lump sum of TDs. You didn't even analyze the red zone targets to reach your conclusion. That is both careless and lazy and makes for crap analysis. I guess I'll do it for you.

In three years Dez, in the red zone, has 8 targets for 5 TDs, 15 targets for 5, and 14 targets for 4.

In five years, Austin has 2 targets for 2 TDs, 23 for 4, 18 for 4, 14 for 4, and 13 for 2.

So Bryant might be a little better, but we don't exactly have a large sample size, and again, the last 2 years Austin has battle injuries and had Kitna 3 years ago. I'm not seeing anything conclusive here.

Next your target progression... yes, most WRs see their targets increase from year 1 to 2 to 3. You didn't uncover any hidden trend here. Furthermore, when the QB sets a career high in pass attempts, it's a bit foolish to keep projecting that upward trend in year 4 if you expect the QB to decrease his pass attempts. As for Austin's targets, he got 112 in 12 games in 2009. Had 41 in 4 games with Romoin 2010, then slipped to 78 in the last 12 games with Kitna. Started out 2011 with 24 targets for 14/233/4 in just two games and injured his hamstring in that game. That injury hampered him the rest of the season. Last year he was on pace for 136 targets before injuring his hamstring again in 2012.

So, you failed to prove Dez has better hands, your red zone analysis failed to analyze red zone stats, and your target projections failed to take injury or QB situation into account. Overall, you just look like a Dez owner who is blinded by optimism. I've got no dog in this fight. I don't own either one in long term leagues. I'm just looking at this from a redraft perspective.

P.S. I just found this article. Austin was dealing with hamstring issues in preseason last year, so it's possible he was never at full strength. Hopefully, the extra exercises will help him stay healthy this year.

I don't typically do this, but I just want to point out that you're very smug when giving responses. It would be just fine to disagree and give your analysis without the rude remarks. Your analysis is good, but that kind of just dampens the whole thing to me.

Anyway, back to the point. My one issue with this entire arguement, is that 2009 Miles Austin does not currently play for the Dallas Cowboys. 2009 Miles Austin did not have the hamstring issues and 2009 Miles Austin lacked any kind of viable #2 WR (unless you're counting Roy Williams, but I don't think many are). 2013 Miles Austin has had multiple hamstring injuries, which have a better liklihood of repeating than broken bones and the like (especially since this has been a consistent problem for him) and Miles Austin now plays with Dez Bryant who, to me, is a better physical talent than Austin. I know that the raw statistics may look as though Austin is equal to or even better than Bryant, but the situations aren't the same, and I think there still has to be some value put into the "eye test" when it comes to players. Austin made great plays with his speed and quickness (it also helped that he basically came out of nowhere), but I think we've seen Dez make some plays that only the class of athlete of Calvin, AJ, Julio could make. Again I will say that Dez Bryant is one of the best talents in the league, and to me the numbers will bear out that way. Austin is 3rd in the pecking order and an injury risk. Dez Bryant showed us last year in 2012 (not 2009) the kind of dominant talent he can be.

 

[Clifford]

1700 and 11

 

[FF Ninja]

I don't typically do this, but I just want to point out that you're very smug when giving responses. It would be just fine to disagree and give your analysis without the rude remarks. Your analysis is good, but that kind of just dampens the whole thing to me.

Anyway, back to the point. My one issue with this entire arguement, is that 2009 Miles Austin does not currently play for the Dallas Cowboys. 2009 Miles Austin did not have the hamstring issues and 2009 Miles Austin lacked any kind of viable #2 WR (unless you're counting Roy Williams, but I don't think many are). 2013 Miles Austin has had multiple hamstring injuries, which have a better liklihood of repeating than broken bones and the like (especially since this has been a consistent problem for him) and Miles Austin now plays with Dez Bryant who, to me, is a better physical talent than Austin. I know that the raw statistics may look as though Austin is equal to or even better than Bryant, but the situations aren't the same, and I think there still has to be some value put into the "eye test" when it comes to players. Austin made great plays with his speed and quickness (it also helped that he basically came out of nowhere), but I think we've seen Dez make some plays that only the class of athlete of Calvin, AJ, Julio could make. Again I will say that Dez Bryant is one of the best talents in the league, and to me the numbers will bear out that way. Austin is 3rd in the pecking order and an injury risk. Dez Bryant showed us last year in 2012 (not 2009) the kind of dominant talent he can be.

No worries. My response definitely was done in a bit of an irritated tone. I hate lazy and/or slanted analysis, which that was both. He made red zone claims without looking it up, didn't really look at Austin's targets very thoroughly before making a baseless claim that he's capped at 119 targets, and intentionally ignored Austin's only year when both he and Romo were healthy when coming up with his "better hands" theory. Just crap all around, so I called it out in maybe a too harsh fashion. But it at least got the point across that lazy analysis is going to be noticed and called out.

As for class of athlete, have a look at this: Miles Austin Dez Bryant

Keep in mind, Austin's numbers are not only better, but they were done at the combine. Pro Day results are almost always better than combine results.

Eyeball tests are just not reliable. They are too often based almost entirely on production/ESPN highlights. I know Dez's 12 touchdowns last year has everyone excited, but TDs are highly unpredictable. Let's not forget that Braylon Edwards once put up 17 in a season with Derek Anderson as his QB. Calvin went from 16 to 5 despite a 27% increase in receptions. Bryant had 3 TDs last year that were from 58, 58, and 85 yards. We could see a semi Cruz-like regression next year if the big TDs don't happen due to increased coverage.

But you are totally right that the hamstring issue is more likely to re-emerge than a broken collarbone or the like. So I think a hit on value was in order for Austin, but WR3 vs. WR34 (new 7/16 ADP) is just crazy for these two similar talents.

 

[amicsta]

I don't typically do this, but I just want to point out that you're very smug when giving responses. It would be just fine to disagree and give your analysis without the rude remarks. Your analysis is good, but that kind of just dampens the whole thing to me.

Anyway, back to the point. My one issue with this entire arguement, is that 2009 Miles Austin does not currently play for the Dallas Cowboys. 2009 Miles Austin did not have the hamstring issues and 2009 Miles Austin lacked any kind of viable #2 WR (unless you're counting Roy Williams, but I don't think many are). 2013 Miles Austin has had multiple hamstring injuries, which have a better liklihood of repeating than broken bones and the like (especially since this has been a consistent problem for him) and Miles Austin now plays with Dez Bryant who, to me, is a better physical talent than Austin. I know that the raw statistics may look as though Austin is equal to or even better than Bryant, but the situations aren't the same, and I think there still has to be some value put into the "eye test" when it comes to players. Austin made great plays with his speed and quickness (it also helped that he basically came out of nowhere), but I think we've seen Dez make some plays that only the class of athlete of Calvin, AJ, Julio could make. Again I will say that Dez Bryant is one of the best talents in the league, and to me the numbers will bear out that way. Austin is 3rd in the pecking order and an injury risk. Dez Bryant showed us last year in 2012 (not 2009) the kind of dominant talent he can be.

No worries. My response definitely was done in a bit of an irritated tone. I hate lazy and/or slanted analysis, which that was both. He made red zone claims without looking it up, didn't really look at Austin's targets very thoroughly before making a baseless claim that he's capped at 119 targets, and intentionally ignored Austin's only year when both he and Romo were healthy when coming up with his "better hands" theory. Just crap all around, so I called it out in maybe a too harsh fashion. But it at least got the point across that lazy analysis is going to be noticed and called out.

As for class of athlete, have a look at this: Miles Austin Dez Bryant

Keep in mind, Austin's numbers are not only better, but they were done at the combine. Pro Day results are almost always better than combine results.

Eyeball tests are just not reliable. They are too often based almost entirely on production/ESPN highlights. I know Dez's 12 touchdowns last year has everyone excited, but TDs are highly unpredictable. Let's not forget that Braylon Edwards once put up 17 in a season with Derek Anderson as his QB. Calvin went from 16 to 5 despite a 27% increase in receptions. Bryant had 3 TDs last year that were from 58, 58, and 85 yards. We could see a semi Cruz-like regression next year if the big TDs don't happen due to increased coverage.

But you are totally right that the hamstring issue is more likely to re-emerge than a broken collarbone or the like. So I think a hit on value was in order for Austin, but WR3 vs. WR34 (new 7/16 ADP) is just crazy for these two similar talents.

Outside of the Calvin comp (he was tackled 6 times at the 1 yard line last year, a little fluky imo) I understand what you're saying about the touchdowns. Yard are definitely more predictable.**Edit** Once I wrote this and re-read it (Calvin part), I realized that's actually kind of the point....nevermind**

As for the measureables, I would like to point out that Dez was ironically recovering from a hamstring injury of his own (reason he didn't work out at the combine) and hadn't played football since being suspended 3 games in to his season at Oklahoma state. His broad jump (almost a foot longer than Austin) points out the kind of explosiveness that I'm talking about with Dez. Overall, I can see how you could consider them in similar classes of athlete, but I think that in context the numbers tell us probably more that Austin was an underrated athlete coming out of Monmouth than that Dez isn't the athlete we think he is (not saying that's your arguement, just making a statement). And of course the fact that its possible the Austin that put up those numbers no longer exists has me worried.

It's funny about Austin, because my initial reaction was the same as yours, that Austin was larceny in the 8th round of drafts. And while I still think it's possible he re-breaks out, it would be hard for me to imagine that happening without an injury to Dez (I won't even posture at a Witten injury, he hasnt missed a game since his rookie year). That cap on his upside kind of limits his intrigue to me. Whereas, guys with similar ADPs like Josh Gordon and Kenny Britt offer, to me, more upside overall, even if it comes with more risk (probably depends on who you ask. I'm fairly confident in Gordon and we've seen what Britt can do as well). All of that said, there's a pretty good chance that I don't own any Cowboy receivers this season unless I get them at an uber-discount.