Player Spotlight: Drew Brees (1 Viewer)

[Jason Wood]

2007 Player Spotlight Series

Over the course of the offseason, we will be evaluating a multitude of players at every fantasy position. One such way we go about that is through the Player Spotlight series. Think of the Spotlights as a permanent record on some of the more intriguing players for the upcoming season. Each Spotlight will be featured in an article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Drew Brees, QB, New Orleans Saints

Player Page Link: Drew Brees Player Page

Each article will include:

Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads
FBG Projections
Consensus Member ProjectionsThe Rules

In order for this thread to provide sustainable value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

Focus commentary on the player in question, and your expectations for said player
Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
To be included in the final synopsis and consensus outlook, you MUST provide projections for the playerProjections should include (at a minimum):

For QBs: Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDsBest of Luck and ENJOY!

 

[shadyridr]

This is how I have the QBs ranked so far:

Manning

Palmer

Brees

Brady

Kitna

In other words Brees is a stud. That being said he wont throw for close to 5000 yds again. But he is in a high powered offense with receivers galore and plays in a weak division. Plus New Orleans defense isnt a top notch unit meaning Brees will be passing often.

4200 yds, 26 tds, 13 ints

 

[rzrback77]

Drew Brees is this year's darling addition to the top of the QB rankings. He had an awesome season for the Saints last year completing 356 of 554 passes (64.3%) for 4,418 yards (8.0 ypa) 26 TDs and 11 ints. He finished the year as QB #2 in FBG Scoring, in a career year.

It should be pointed out that the yards per attempt of 8.0 was the 13th highest for ALL QBs in the five previous seasons. Peyton Manning, Ben Roethlisberger, and Donovan McNabb each posted higher averages twice in that same five year period.

Another factor that folks look at with the QB scoring is consistency. We don't want the goose egg games as those are killers in HTH. Again using FBG Scoring and looking at Brees over the past three years....

04 3159 passing yds 27 TDs 7 ints finished 11th QB 4 gms < 10 fantasy pts and 1 more between 10 & 15

05 3576 passing yds 24 TDs 15 ints finished 7th QB 2 gms < 10 fantasy pts and 4 more between 10 & 15

06 4418 passing yds 26 TDs 11 ints finished 2nd QB 2 gms < 10 fantasy pts and 4 more between 10 & 15

Pretty solid numbers and improvement each season, but a few clunker games

Now, let's look at others 06 consistency

06 Favre - 4 gms < 10 fantasy pts and 2 more between 10 & 15

06 Grossman - 4 gms < 10 fantasy pts and 2 more between 10 & 15

06 E Manning - 2 gms < 10 fantasy pts and 5 more between 10 & 15

A little less inconsistent scoring with Brees, but the above three are supposed to be the poster children for Inconsistency and there's not that big a difference.

Throw in the fact that Brees is going on average as QB #4 at the 41st pick, I'm not seeing the justification.

I have already stated that I think that New Orleans will stress ball control more in 07 and accomplish that using Deuce McAllister even more with power running, I see less passing attempts and a drop in yards per attempt

Brees 310 completions 490 pass attempts (63.3%) for 3822 yards (7.8 ypa) 24 TDs and 12 ints with negligible rushing

 

[BigRed]

Brees will come back down to Earth some but should be fine. Will be slightly overpriced because of all the people who think last year = this year, but he's on my short list of QB targets. I'd say about mid/upper 3000s, 25/12 kinda year.

 

[ImTheScientist]

Brees will finish in the TOP 5 this year. However, I would not take him in a fantasy draft because his actual value does not justify his draft position in this years draft. He will more than likely be the QB2-QB4 selected in most drafts.

I would lay off Brees and select a QB in the later rounds or even go QBBC. Many who went QBBC may have ended up with Brees last year.

4001 yards passing, 25 TDs and 10 ints

 

[BassNBrew]

3700-22-10, 14 games

I can't put my finger on it, but I have a very bad vibe about Brees this year. Something tells me that New Orleans will run like gangbusters and Brees will bust up a thumb and miss a couple of games.

 

[fridayfrenzy]

I have already stated that I think that New Orleans will stress ball control more in 07 and accomplish that using Deuce McAllister even more with power running, I see less passing attempts and a drop in yards per attempt

I can't put my finger on it, but I have a very bad vibe about Brees this year. Something tells me that New Orleans will run like gangbusters and Brees will bust up a thumb and miss a couple of games.

What leads you guys to believe this in the first place? When you have the top offense in the league, why would you go and mess with it, you should basically hone and tweak it somewhat, not change the overall philophosy of what made the offense so good. Coach Sean Payton: Hey team, we had the #1 offense in the NFL, had our 2nd best record in the history of the franchise, made it ths furthest in the playoffs in our franchise history and we have all the same offensive personel back this year plus a 1st round WR, but we are going to change how we operate our offense this year and change what made us so good last year, sound good guys?

 

[Jayrod]

I have already stated that I think that New Orleans will stress ball control more in 07 and accomplish that using Deuce McAllister even more with power running, I see less passing attempts and a drop in yards per attempt

I can't put my finger on it, but I have a very bad vibe about Brees this year. Something tells me that New Orleans will run like gangbusters and Brees will bust up a thumb and miss a couple of games.

What leads you guys to believe this in the first place? When you have the top offense in the league, why would you go and mess with it, you should basically hone and tweak it somewhat, not change the overall philophosy of what made the offense so good.

Coach Sean Payton: Hey team, we had the #1 offense in the NFL, had our 2nd best record in the history of the franchise, made it ths furthest in the playoffs in our franchise history and we have all the same offensive personel back this year plus a 1st round WR, but we are going to change how we operate our offense this year and change what made us so good last year, sound good guys?

Joe Horn came back?!?

 

[fridayfrenzy]

I have already stated that I think that New Orleans will stress ball control more in 07 and accomplish that using Deuce McAllister even more with power running, I see less passing attempts and a drop in yards per attempt

I can't put my finger on it, but I have a very bad vibe about Brees this year. Something tells me that New Orleans will run like gangbusters and Brees will bust up a thumb and miss a couple of games.

What leads you guys to believe this in the first place? When you have the top offense in the league, why would you go and mess with it, you should basically hone and tweak it somewhat, not change the overall philophosy of what made the offense so good.

Coach Sean Payton: Hey team, we had the #1 offense in the NFL, had our 2nd best record in the history of the franchise, made it ths furthest in the playoffs in our franchise history and we have all the same offensive personel back this year plus a 1st round WR, but we are going to change how we operate our offense this year and change what made us so good last year, sound good guys?

Joe Horn came back?!?

Joe Horn's 37 receptions were crucial to the offense being successful?

 

[BigRed]

What leads you guys to believe this in the first place? When you have the top offense in the league, why would you go and mess with it, you should basically hone and tweak it somewhat, not change the overall philophosy of what made the offense so good. Coach Sean Payton: Hey team, we had the #1 offense in the NFL, had our 2nd best record in the history of the franchise, made it ths furthest in the playoffs in our franchise history and we have all the same offensive personel back this year plus a 1st round WR, but we are going to change how we operate our offense this year and change what made us so good last year, sound good guys?

See what I mean.....I love those "last year = this year" drafters

 

[BigSteelThrill]

Big things continue for Brees.

4300 pass

29 Tds

14 Ints

20 rush

Making him the #3 QB in fantasy points. Solid OLine. Solid WRs. Solid RBs and run game.

Defense just weak enough to make passing a "need". Pass first (ex quarterback's) Head Coach.

Aggresive offense. A year under his belt with the system as with everyone else on the team.

And he was a damn good QB beforeall these other positives, and now his 05 injury is a non issue.

And its possible that he could obtain loftier numbers. His worst case scenario is still about 3800+ w/ a full schedule.

 

[guderian]

What leads you guys to believe this in the first place? When you have the top offense in the league, why would you go and mess with it, you should basically hone and tweak it somewhat, not change the overall philophosy of what made the offense so good. Coach Sean Payton: Hey team, we had the #1 offense in the NFL, had our 2nd best record in the history of the franchise, made it ths furthest in the playoffs in our franchise history and we have all the same offensive personel back this year plus a 1st round WR, but we are going to change how we operate our offense this year and change what made us so good last year, sound good guys?

See what I mean.....I love those "last year = this year" drafters

What about next year=better than last year?--This time last year Drew Brees was learning a new system and personnel yet he still couldn't throw the ball as he recovered from labrum surgery. This year he's 100%.--The Saints were the top offense in yardage, but only #5 in points. Why was that? Partially because of the strong running game, but also because they lacked consistency at Tight End. I think Eric Johnson is hugely under-rated going into this year and he'll improve Brees' TD total in 2007. In the 4 years prior to Payton joining the Saints, he's TEs averaged close to 900 yards and 6 TDs per season. Adding a pass catching TE to this offense is scary. --Colston, Bush, Copper, and Henderson were all un-proven going into last year and McAllister was coming off of a knee injury. The team had a new coach and had spent the prior season as vagabonds. This off season has been about stability. On offense their only loss was Horn (37 receptions) and they added Meachem and Eric Johnson. The only negative I see is that the Saints played one of the easiest passing SOS last year and regression to the mean indicates a tougher schedule in 2007. I see a slight decline in yardage, but an increase in TDs and INTs. 4,200 yards29 TDs13 INTs.

 

[guderian]

3700-22-10, 14 gamesI can't put my finger on it, but I have a very bad vibe about Brees this year. Something tells me that New Orleans will run like gangbusters and Brees will bust up a thumb and miss a couple of games.

The odds favor an injury to one of the running backs which would let the offensive burden fall to Brees.

 

[Jayrod]

I have already stated that I think that New Orleans will stress ball control more in 07 and accomplish that using Deuce McAllister even more with power running, I see less passing attempts and a drop in yards per attempt

I can't put my finger on it, but I have a very bad vibe about Brees this year. Something tells me that New Orleans will run like gangbusters and Brees will bust up a thumb and miss a couple of games.

What leads you guys to believe this in the first place? When you have the top offense in the league, why would you go and mess with it, you should basically hone and tweak it somewhat, not change the overall philophosy of what made the offense so good.

Coach Sean Payton: Hey team, we had the #1 offense in the NFL, had our 2nd best record in the history of the franchise, made it ths furthest in the playoffs in our franchise history and we have all the same offensive personel back this year plus a 1st round WR, but we are going to change how we operate our offense this year and change what made us so good last year, sound good guys?

Joe Horn came back?!?

Joe Horn's 37 receptions were crucial to the offense being successful?

Double I'm not commenting on success, just the "we have all the same offensive personel back this year" comment. Joe Horn is not back.

Also, coming into the season he was the clear cut #1 WR. That changed throughout the year, but at the beginning it was Joe Horn and a bunch of no-names. Colston was able to sneak up on teams for a few weeks while he got his feet wet.

 

[fridayfrenzy]

I have already stated that I think that New Orleans will stress ball control more in 07 and accomplish that using Deuce McAllister even more with power running, I see less passing attempts and a drop in yards per attempt

I can't put my finger on it, but I have a very bad vibe about Brees this year. Something tells me that New Orleans will run like gangbusters and Brees will bust up a thumb and miss a couple of games.

What leads you guys to believe this in the first place? When you have the top offense in the league, why would you go and mess with it, you should basically hone and tweak it somewhat, not change the overall philophosy of what made the offense so good.

Coach Sean Payton: Hey team, we had the #1 offense in the NFL, had our 2nd best record in the history of the franchise, made it ths furthest in the playoffs in our franchise history and we have all the same offensive personel back this year plus a 1st round WR, but we are going to change how we operate our offense this year and change what made us so good last year, sound good guys?

Joe Horn came back?!?

Joe Horn's 37 receptions were crucial to the offense being successful?

Double I'm not commenting on success, just the "we have all the same offensive personel back this year" comment. Joe Horn is not back.

Also, coming into the season he was the clear cut #1 WR. That changed throughout the year, but at the beginning it was Joe Horn and a bunch of no-names. Colston was able to sneak up on teams for a few weeks while he got his feet wet.

You are harping on a section of a sentence of a post, you realize that right?

 

[fridayfrenzy]

What leads you guys to believe this in the first place? When you have the top offense in the league, why would you go and mess with it, you should basically hone and tweak it somewhat, not change the overall philophosy of what made the offense so good. Coach Sean Payton: Hey team, we had the #1 offense in the NFL, had our 2nd best record in the history of the franchise, made it ths furthest in the playoffs in our franchise history and we have all the same offensive personel back this year plus a 1st round WR, but we are going to change how we operate our offense this year and change what made us so good last year, sound good guys?

See what I mean.....I love those "last year = this year" drafters

I don't think this year = last year, but you can't just predict a team will suddenly run the ball significantly more out of the blue cause its a "gut" feeling.I predict Peyton Manning will throw for 6000 yards, its just a "gut" feeling I have that Indy will throw 90% of the time.

 

[Jayrod]

I have already stated that I think that New Orleans will stress ball control more in 07 and accomplish that using Deuce McAllister even more with power running, I see less passing attempts and a drop in yards per attempt

I can't put my finger on it, but I have a very bad vibe about Brees this year. Something tells me that New Orleans will run like gangbusters and Brees will bust up a thumb and miss a couple of games.

What leads you guys to believe this in the first place? When you have the top offense in the league, why would you go and mess with it, you should basically hone and tweak it somewhat, not change the overall philophosy of what made the offense so good.

Coach Sean Payton: Hey team, we had the #1 offense in the NFL, had our 2nd best record in the history of the franchise, made it ths furthest in the playoffs in our franchise history and we have all the same offensive personel back this year plus a 1st round WR, but we are going to change how we operate our offense this year and change what made us so good last year, sound good guys?

Joe Horn came back?!?

Joe Horn's 37 receptions were crucial to the offense being successful?

Double I'm not commenting on success, just the "we have all the same offensive personel back this year" comment. Joe Horn is not back.

Also, coming into the season he was the clear cut #1 WR. That changed throughout the year, but at the beginning it was Joe Horn and a bunch of no-names. Colston was able to sneak up on teams for a few weeks while he got his feet wet.

You are harping on a section of a sentence of a post, you realize that right?

You are harping on someone who is harping on a section of a sentence of a post, you realize that right?However, it was a pretty clear statement that was not entirely correct and that was all I was trying to point out (be it in a smart-### way).

 

[BigSteelThrill]

I have already stated that I think that New Orleans will stress ball control more in 07 and accomplish that using Deuce McAllister even more with power running, I see less passing attempts and a drop in yards per attempt

I can't put my finger on it, but I have a very bad vibe about Brees this year. Something tells me that New Orleans will run like gangbusters and Brees will bust up a thumb and miss a couple of games.

What leads you guys to believe this in the first place? When you have the top offense in the league, why would you go and mess with it, you should basically hone and tweak it somewhat, not change the overall philophosy of what made the offense so good.

Coach Sean Payton: Hey team, we had the #1 offense in the NFL, had our 2nd best record in the history of the franchise, made it ths furthest in the playoffs in our franchise history and we have all the same offensive personel back this year plus a 1st round WR, but we are going to change how we operate our offense this year and change what made us so good last year, sound good guys?

Joe Horn came back?!?

Joe Horn's 37 receptions were crucial to the offense being successful?

Double I'm not commenting on success, just the "we have all the same offensive personel back this year" comment. Joe Horn is not back.

Also, coming into the season he was the clear cut #1 WR. That changed throughout the year, but at the beginning it was Joe Horn and a bunch of no-names. Colston was able to sneak up on teams for a few weeks while he got his feet wet.

You are harping on a section of a sentence of a post, you realize that right?

You are harping on someone who is harping on a section of a sentence of a post, you realize that right?However, it was a pretty clear statement that was not entirely correct and that was all I was trying to point out (be it in a smart-### way).

He isnt harping. He just pointed it out. Had he added some commentary, then he might be.

 

[rzrback77]

I have already stated that I think that New Orleans will stress ball control more in 07 and accomplish that using Deuce McAllister even more with power running, I see less passing attempts and a drop in yards per attempt

I can't put my finger on it, but I have a very bad vibe about Brees this year. Something tells me that New Orleans will run like gangbusters and Brees will bust up a thumb and miss a couple of games.

What leads you guys to believe this in the first place? When you have the top offense in the league, why would you go and mess with it, you should basically hone and tweak it somewhat, not change the overall philophosy of what made the offense so good. Coach Sean Payton: Hey team, we had the #1 offense in the NFL, had our 2nd best record in the history of the franchise, made it ths furthest in the playoffs in our franchise history and we have all the same offensive personel back this year plus a 1st round WR, but we are going to change how we operate our offense this year and change what made us so good last year, sound good guys?

#1 Deuce McAllister was coming off knee surgery in 06 and was very limited in pre-season and became more effective throughout the year.#2 Reggie Bush figured it out as the year went on and became more effective in the running game#3 Saints defense improved during 06 and I believe in the offseason as well. I expect them to be much better in 07 and allow their offense to control the clock running the ball with a lead late in games, much like they did in 06 down the stretch

 

[BigRed]

What about next year=better than last year?--This time last year Drew Brees was learning a new system and personnel yet he still couldn't throw the ball as he recovered from labrum surgery. This year he's 100%.

I'm the first to agree that stats aren't everything, but 4400+ yds and an 8 yd avg would seem to indicate he could in fact throw the ball.

--The Saints were the top offense in yardage, but only #5 in points. Why was that? Partially because of the strong running game, but also because they lacked consistency at Tight End. I think Eric Johnson is hugely under-rated going into this year

Probably because he's always a leading candidate for the FT Ironman Award.

--Colston, Bush, Copper, and Henderson were all un-proven going into last year

..allowing them to sneak up on people who underrated them...

and McAllister was coming off of a knee injury.

Which also didn't seem to hamper him much (granted he had Bush to share touches with).

The team had a new coach and had spent the prior season as vagabonds.

Which is also clearly not relevant to last or this year.I'm not saying your points are unreasonable or whatever, just that there's 2 sides to them....and more to the point, when all is said and done, the odds of ANY QB even approaching 4400ish yds twice in a row (OK Peyton maybe) is EXTREMELY unlikely. Again would be very happy w/Brees as my QB, but expectations should be more guarded by people. I repeat, last year does not = this year. The year after Manning threw his 49 TDs I LMAO @ how many people were saying (here and elsewhere) "he could throw as many or more. why not??" - and gave all these very seemingly reasonable reasons why.But to no surprise of anyone who knew better and didn't overpay, he didn't come even remotely close, because the odds are extremely slim to repeat such massive stats, regardless of circumstances. That's why not.

 

[BigRed]

I don't think this year = last year, but you can't just predict a team will suddenly run the ball significantly more out of the blue cause its a "gut" feeling.I predict Peyton Manning will throw for 6000 yards, its just a "gut" feeling I have that Indy will throw 90% of the time.

um whatever. See my post above this one re. what I was saying.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

I have already stated that I think that New Orleans will stress ball control more in 07 and accomplish that using Deuce McAllister even more with power running, I see less passing attempts and a drop in yards per attempt

I can't put my finger on it, but I have a very bad vibe about Brees this year. Something tells me that New Orleans will run like gangbusters and Brees will bust up a thumb and miss a couple of games.

What leads you guys to believe this in the first place? When you have the top offense in the league, why would you go and mess with it, you should basically hone and tweak it somewhat, not change the overall philophosy of what made the offense so good. Coach Sean Payton: Hey team, we had the #1 offense in the NFL, had our 2nd best record in the history of the franchise, made it ths furthest in the playoffs in our franchise history and we have all the same offensive personel back this year plus a 1st round WR, but we are going to change how we operate our offense this year and change what made us so good last year, sound good guys?

I don't necessarily agree that what they're saying will happen, but you're posting as if you're in Payton's head and saying something that's already happened is basically impossible.The Saints didn't win the Super Bowl last year, so everything isn't perfect there. It wasn't the offenses fault, but it wasn't the offense's fault in Indy that they didn't win it in 2005 with the league's best offense yet they came out the next year doing exactly what Bass and rzr are suggesting - they cut back on the pass attempts and focused on more of a ball control offense that favored ToP over pure, quick points.So it's certainly not absurd to think that a team would slightly alter its offensive philosophy even though that offense is already great, especially since it just happened.

 

[fridayfrenzy]

I have already stated that I think that New Orleans will stress ball control more in 07 and accomplish that using Deuce McAllister even more with power running, I see less passing attempts and a drop in yards per attempt

I can't put my finger on it, but I have a very bad vibe about Brees this year. Something tells me that New Orleans will run like gangbusters and Brees will bust up a thumb and miss a couple of games.

What leads you guys to believe this in the first place? When you have the top offense in the league, why would you go and mess with it, you should basically hone and tweak it somewhat, not change the overall philophosy of what made the offense so good.

Coach Sean Payton: Hey team, we had the #1 offense in the NFL, had our 2nd best record in the history of the franchise, made it ths furthest in the playoffs in our franchise history and we have all the same offensive personel back this year plus a 1st round WR, but we are going to change how we operate our offense this year and change what made us so good last year, sound good guys?

I don't necessarily agree that what they're saying will happen, but you're posting as if you're in Payton's head and saying something that's already happened is basically impossible.The Saints didn't win the Super Bowl last year, so everything isn't perfect there. It wasn't the offenses fault, but it wasn't the offense's fault in Indy that they didn't win it in 2005 with the league's best offense yet they came out the next year doing exactly what Bass and rzr are suggesting - they cut back on the pass attempts and focused on more of a ball control offense that favored ToP over pure, quick points.

So it's certainly not absurd to think that a team would slightly alter its offensive philosophy even though that offense is already great, especially since it just happened.

Um, the COMPLETE opposite happened according to the stats. It appears they Passed the ball more in 2006, than they did in 2005, and rush the ball less in 2006 compared to 2005 and had less time of possession in 2006 than in 2005 as well. Nice try. Indy 2005:

Pass attempts: 517

Rush attempts: 465

Rush/Pass ratio: 47/53

ToP: 30:22 per game

2006

Pass attempts: 557

Rush attempts: 439

Rush/Pass ratio: 44/56

ToP: 29:32 per game

 

[Routilla]

I repeat, last year does not = this year. The year after Manning threw his 49 TDs I LMAO @ how many people were saying (here and elsewhere) "he could throw as many or more. why not??" - and gave all these very seemingly reasonable reasons why.But to no surprise of anyone who knew better and didn't overpay, he didn't come even remotely close, because the odds are extremely slim to repeat such massive stats, regardless of circumstances. That's why not.

Brees in '06: 4,418 yards, 26 TDs and 11 intsYour predictions for '07: mid/upper 3000s, 25/12 kinda year.So you leave yourself about a 500 yard window(3500-3999) in terms of yards which is nice. This means you are predicting between 400-900 yards less for Brees. That's between 10% and 20%. I could maybe see 10% less but barring injury it is highly unlikely his yards would dip 20%. Your predictions for TDs and INTs are basically the same. So are you saying people will be overpaying to draft him as the #3 QB or there abouts? He did not approach Manning's 49 TDs so it's not like he cannot duplicate last season's #s. He only through 26TDs and with their DEF I would think the offense will remain fairly wide open. The only reason I could see his yardage dropping 20% would be if the DEF began to dominate opponents. :(

 

[guderian]

What about next year=better than last year?--This time last year Drew Brees was learning a new system and personnel yet he still couldn't throw the ball as he recovered from labrum surgery. This year he's 100%.

I'm the first to agree that stats aren't everything, but 4400+ yds and an 8 yd avg would seem to indicate he could in fact throw the ball.

--The Saints were the top offense in yardage, but only #5 in points. Why was that? Partially because of the strong running game, but also because they lacked consistency at Tight End. I think Eric Johnson is hugely under-rated going into this year

Probably because he's always a leading candidate for the FT Ironman Award.

--Colston, Bush, Copper, and Henderson were all un-proven going into last year

..allowing them to sneak up on people who underrated them...

and McAllister was coming off of a knee injury.

Which also didn't seem to hamper him much (granted he had Bush to share touches with).

The team had a new coach and had spent the prior season as vagabonds.

Which is also clearly not relevant to last or this year.I'm not saying your points are unreasonable or whatever, just that there's 2 sides to them....and more to the point, when all is said and done, the odds of ANY QB even approaching 4400ish yds twice in a row (OK Peyton maybe) is EXTREMELY unlikely. Again would be very happy w/Brees as my QB, but expectations should be more guarded by people. I repeat, last year does not = this year. The year after Manning threw his 49 TDs I LMAO @ how many people were saying (here and elsewhere) "he could throw as many or more. why not??" - and gave all these very seemingly reasonable reasons why.But to no surprise of anyone who knew better and didn't overpay, he didn't come even remotely close, because the odds are extremely slim to repeat such massive stats, regardless of circumstances. That's why not.

1. Comparing Brees' stats to Manning's record season is irrelevant, but I'm happy that you were among the vast majority that didn't think he would repeat that. There's been one 49 TD season and forty-nine 4,000+ yard seasons since 1980--and eighteen since 2000. I don't see the comparison between something that's happened once to something that's happened an average of 2+ times per year in recent years. 2. If you want to dig into this further, Brees essentially only played 15 games last year--so my 4200 yard projection is a 10% drop from his per game average last year. 3. I never buy the "sneak up on them" argument. NFL coaches are paid millions of dollars and spend hundreds of hours studying game tape. While a player may sneak up on them for a game or two, they won't do that for the majority of a 16 game season. The "sneak up on them" argument is lazy analysis. 4. Having a new coach and dealing with a franchise relocation is "clearly not relevant to last year" Furthermore, the absence of those distractions is "clearly not relevant" to this year?5. Thanks for pointing out that there are two sides to every argument. 6. You haven't offered any reasons why his stats will materially decline other than "last year <> this year".

 

[FreeBaGeL]

I have already stated that I think that New Orleans will stress ball control more in 07 and accomplish that using Deuce McAllister even more with power running, I see less passing attempts and a drop in yards per attempt

I can't put my finger on it, but I have a very bad vibe about Brees this year. Something tells me that New Orleans will run like gangbusters and Brees will bust up a thumb and miss a couple of games.

What leads you guys to believe this in the first place? When you have the top offense in the league, why would you go and mess with it, you should basically hone and tweak it somewhat, not change the overall philophosy of what made the offense so good.

Coach Sean Payton: Hey team, we had the #1 offense in the NFL, had our 2nd best record in the history of the franchise, made it ths furthest in the playoffs in our franchise history and we have all the same offensive personel back this year plus a 1st round WR, but we are going to change how we operate our offense this year and change what made us so good last year, sound good guys?

I don't necessarily agree that what they're saying will happen, but you're posting as if you're in Payton's head and saying something that's already happened is basically impossible.The Saints didn't win the Super Bowl last year, so everything isn't perfect there. It wasn't the offenses fault, but it wasn't the offense's fault in Indy that they didn't win it in 2005 with the league's best offense yet they came out the next year doing exactly what Bass and rzr are suggesting - they cut back on the pass attempts and focused on more of a ball control offense that favored ToP over pure, quick points.

So it's certainly not absurd to think that a team would slightly alter its offensive philosophy even though that offense is already great, especially since it just happened.

Um, the COMPLETE opposite happened according to the stats. It appears they Passed the ball more in 2006, than they did in 2005, and rush the ball less in 2006 compared to 2005 and had less time of possession in 2006 than in 2005 as well. Nice try. Indy 2005:

Pass attempts: 517

Rush attempts: 465

Rush/Pass ratio: 47/53

ToP: 30:22 per game

2006

Pass attempts: 557

Rush attempts: 439

Rush/Pass ratio: 44/56

ToP: 29:32 per game

I mistyped. 2004 was the year I was talking about.

 

[BassNBrew]

8 NO BAL 24 45 383 3 3 3 6 0 28.8 9 NO TB 24 32 314 3 0 6 9 0 28.6 10 NO PIT 31 47 398 1 0 4 14 0 25.3 11 NO CIN 37 52 510 2 3 0 0 0 30.5 12 NO ATL 21 30 349 2 0 0 0 0 25.4 13 NO SF 17 28 186 1 0 3 14 0 14.7 14 NO DAL 26 38 384 5 0 5 -6 0 38.6 This is the stretch that I don't see Brees duplicating.

Oct 29 Baltimore Lost 22-35

Nov 5 @Tampa Bay Won 31-14

Nov 12 @Pittsburgh Lost 31-38

Nov 19 Cincinnati Lost 16-31

Nov 26 @Atlanta Won 31-13

Dec 3 San Francisco Won 34-10

Dec 10 @Dallas Won 42-17

The two games approaching 400 and the 500 yard game came in some crazy games. I really think with Bush and Mac that they can control the game better than they did last year.

 

[Voice Of Reason]

Having watched Payton call plays for every game last year, he WANTS to throw it every play.

In the 2nd half of games that are close or the Saints are down, he will abandon the running game. The Philly game in the playoffs was shocking that he stuck with the run so much, but even then he still called a healthy amount of passing plays with the running game being so effective.

The only way I see Payton calling a lot of runs is if the Saints get an early big lead on teams and run it out in the 2nd half. This team is horrible at causing turnovers and the special teams weren't explosive last year (except for the Bush PR vs Tampa) so I don't think they can jump on a team early without Brees getting big numbers.

Payton is a very agressive playcaller, rarely is he content to run and sit on a lead. The suprise onside kick against Dallas with the lead really showed his personality last season.

 

[BigRed]

1. Comparing Brees' stats to Manning's record season is irrelevant, but I'm happy that you were among the vast majority that didn't think he would repeat that. There's been one 49 TD season and forty-nine 4,000+ yard seasons since 1980--and eighteen since 2000. I don't see the comparison between something that's happened once to something that's happened an average of 2+ times per year in recent years. 2. If you want to dig into this further, Brees essentially only played 15 games last year--so my 4200 yard projection is a 10% drop from his per game average last year. 3. I never buy the "sneak up on them" argument. NFL coaches are paid millions of dollars and spend hundreds of hours studying game tape. While a player may sneak up on them for a game or two, they won't do that for the majority of a 16 game season. The "sneak up on them" argument is lazy analysis. 4. Having a new coach and dealing with a franchise relocation is "clearly not relevant to last year" Furthermore, the absence of those distractions is "clearly not relevant" to this year?5. Thanks for pointing out that there are two sides to every argument. 6. You haven't offered any reasons why his stats will materially decline other than "last year <> this year".

1. It was quite relevant, and manipulating the stats to "back" your point doesn't change that. If you're unable/unwilling to get that, whatever.2. And if I'd predicted Manning to get 44 TDs following his big year, it'd be a similar dip - and also not likely.3. um teams don't play each other for more than a game or two at most during the year. Anyway I'm not saying they were "ignored" just perhaps not given the due they merited at the time, esp earlier in the year when teams logically focused more on the 2 RBs. 4. New coach/etc "not relevant" meaning it didn't hinder them as you imply. 5. Any time. 6. Even if that were true, "last year <> this year" is enough IMO.

 

[guderian]

1. Comparing Brees' stats to Manning's record season is irrelevant, but I'm happy that you were among the vast majority that didn't think he would repeat that. There's been one 49 TD season and forty-nine 4,000+ yard seasons since 1980--and eighteen since 2000. I don't see the comparison between something that's happened once to something that's happened an average of 2+ times per year in recent years. 2. If you want to dig into this further, Brees essentially only played 15 games last year--so my 4200 yard projection is a 10% drop from his per game average last year. 3. I never buy the "sneak up on them" argument. NFL coaches are paid millions of dollars and spend hundreds of hours studying game tape. While a player may sneak up on them for a game or two, they won't do that for the majority of a 16 game season. The "sneak up on them" argument is lazy analysis. 4. Having a new coach and dealing with a franchise relocation is "clearly not relevant to last year" Furthermore, the absence of those distractions is "clearly not relevant" to this year?5. Thanks for pointing out that there are two sides to every argument. 6. You haven't offered any reasons why his stats will materially decline other than "last year <> this year".

1. It was quite relevant, and manipulating the stats to "back" your point doesn't change that. If you're unable/unwilling to get that, whatever.2. And if I'd predicted Manning to get 44 TDs following his big year, it'd be a similar dip - and also not likely.3. um teams don't play each other for more than a game or two at most during the year. Anyway I'm not saying they were "ignored" just perhaps not given the due they merited at the time, esp earlier in the year when teams logically focused more on the 2 RBs. 4. New coach/etc "not relevant" meaning it didn't hinder them as you imply. 5. Any time. 6. Even if that were true, "last year <> this year" is enough IMO.

1. It's a ridiculous assertion to compare the repeatability of an NFL record to the repeatability of throwing for 4,000+ yards. One thing has happened once in the decades long history of the NFL and the other happens to over 6% of NFL teams EACH YEAR. If Brees had set a record last year of 5,000+ yards and people were projecting 5,000+ yards again, then you'd had a point. That's not what happened, so your point isn't relevant. 2. Again, you are harping on the Manning TD record as "evidence" that players can't repeat "good" years--not "great" years, but merely "good" years. Do you automatically assume that all "good" NFL players suffer a 43% decline in yardage the following year because Manning suffered a 43% decline in TDs in 2005???3. There's this thing called "game tape" that coaches review to prepare for up-coming weeks. They don't surf fantasy football message boards and they don't evaluate them based on just their prior games, so players don't "sneak up on them". 4. So, offenses don't improve in their second year under a good offensive head coach because of familiarity and stability???6. No, that is not good enough. "Reversion to the mean" is a lazy argument that is tossed around too frequently on this board by people that don't understand what it truly means, but it's an easy and convenient argument that they think has a logical basis--so they toss it in to justify a pre-conceived notion. Fluky things like TDs can revert to the mean, but you need a better justification for yardage totals to "revert to the mean". Brees threw 34.6 times per game. Five players threw more than that. Is that what is going to revert to the mean? Sean Payton showed a strong preference to stick with the pass, so why would that decline materially? Considering that a significant percentage of Brees' passes were essentially long hand offs to Bush, I don't think it declines. My YPA is a drop of over 5% from last year--that puts him below 7 other QBs. I don't think that is an unrealistic expectation given the success of their offense last year. What about Brees' TD percentage of 4.7%. That's low compared to other passing offenses--do you assume it "reverts to the mean" of other passing offenses and adjust it upward???

 

[BassNBrew]

3700-22-10, 14 gamesI can't put my finger on it, but I have a very bad vibe about Brees this year. Something tells me that New Orleans will run like gangbusters and Brees will bust up a thumb and miss a couple of games.

After reading the posts here, I've been convinced that I'm light on my numbers. 4100-25-12

 

[Sidewinder]

3700-22-10, 14 games

I can't put my finger on it, but I have a very bad vibe about Brees this year. Something tells me that New Orleans will run like gangbusters and Brees will bust up a thumb and miss a couple of games.

Sounds like wishful thinking by a Carolina fan.

…

The Saints didn't win the Super Bowl last year, so everything isn't perfect there. It wasn't the offenses fault…

Actually, the worst losses of the season (at home vs Balt, at Chic in the NFCCG) can be planted squarely on the offense. Not many teams are going to win games when they turn the ball over five times.

Having watched Payton call plays for every game last year, he WANTS to throw it every play.

In the 2nd half of games that are close or the Saints are down, he will abandon the running game. The Philly game in the playoffs was shocking that he stuck with the run so much, but even then he still called a healthy amount of passing plays with the running game being so effective.

The only way I see Payton calling a lot of runs is if the Saints get an early big lead on teams and run it out in the 2nd half. This team is horrible at causing turnovers and the special teams weren't explosive last year (except for the Bush PR vs Tampa) so I don't think they can jump on a team early without Brees getting big numbers.

Payton is a very agressive playcaller, rarely is he content to run and sit on a lead. The suprise onside kick against Dallas with the lead really showed his personality last season.

This is very :X . A perfect example was the NFCCG -- many people forget that it was a 2 point game (16-14) for much of the 3rd quarter, and was only a 4 point game (18-14) at the end of the 3rd, but of the Saints 18 offensive plays in quarter, 15 were passes.Brees: For 2007, I think the yardage will decrease, but so will the INTs, with a slight bump up in TD passes:

512 att

332 comp

3,968 yds

28 TDs

9 Ints

 

[Monsters of the Midway]

Interesting thread. Good arguments on both sides.

Call me shortsighted but count me in the group that thinks that NO will run more than they did last year.

Positives:

100% Healthy this year

1 year in the offense under his belt

Reggie Bush is healthy and similarly acclimated to the offense

Negatives

Tougher Passing SOS (stealing from guderian)

IMO a better team and fully emergent Bush means more balanced offense (less passing, more rushing)

Similar production to last year-fewer yards, more TDs: 4000 yards, 27 TDs. That should put him in the Top 5. However, that's where he will be drafted so it probably won't be by me.