Player Spotlight: Fred Taylor (1 Viewer)

[Jason Wood]

2007 Player Spotlight Series

Over the course of the offseason, we will be evaluating a multitude of players at every fantasy position. One such way we go about that is through the Player Spotlight series. Think of the Spotlights as a permanent record on some of the more intriguing players for the upcoming season. Each Spotlight will be featured in an article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Fred Taylor, RB, Jacksonville Jaguars

Player Page Link: Fred Taylor Player Page

Each article will include:

Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads
FBG Projections
Consensus Member ProjectionsThe Rules

In order for this thread to provide sustainable value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

Focus commentary on the player in question, and your expectations for said player
Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
To be included in the final synopsis and consensus outlook, you MUST provide projections for the playerProjections should include (at a minimum):

For QBs: Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDsBest of Luck and ENJOY!

 

[shadyridr]

They just gave him a big extension plus he had a very good year last year. Jones-Drew will steal some touches like last year and Taylor will get dinged up on occassion plus he will not get goalline carries IMO but he is a very good value as a RB3 as I think he will slip with everyone's infatuation with MJD. I expect a 70/30 split in favor of Taylor.

260 att, 1100 yds, 3 tds, 30 rec, 200 yds, 1 td

 

[rzrback77]

Fred Taylor is being vastly overlooked and underated for 2007 for slightly inaccurate reasons. The first reason that Taylor is overlooked is the presence of MJ Drew, whose outstanding performance in 06 has a lot of folks forecasting the same or better this year, leaving less for Taylor. Fred Taylor is old (31 going into this season) and will be less productive in 07. Taylor has an injury history so he must be even more easily injured than other RBs, especially since he is 31.

Well, all of the above is kind of true and Taylor COULD have a disappointing year, but in my opinion his current ADP makes him a very attractive option for 07, regardless of the above warnings. Let's look at some Fred Taylor facts:

1) Since 2002, he has played 16, 16, 14, 11, and 15 games showing dependability above what would be expected considering his Fragile Fred past history.

2) Last year, he had 231 rushes and 23 receptions, averaging just over 17 touches per game. Much more of the RB opportunities, than would be expected based on the MJ Drew buzz.

3) Last year, he rushed for 5.0 ypc which was his career high. Jacksonville's offensive line is very good and Taylor still has it.

4) FBG's ADP (its from May though) has him going as the RB 36 and 77th overall.

5) The Jaguars defense is still pretty good and they will be pounding the rock a lot in 07, just like last year.

A couple of recent players have had excellent production at the age of 31. In 05, Mike Anderson had 1226 total yards and scored 13 TDs at the age of 32. Last year, both Tiki Barber and Warrick Dunn performed very well, with 2127 total yards and 5 TDs and 1310 total yards and 5 TDs respectively. I think that Taylor is capable of producing a year equal to Dunn or Anderson and I see a lot of upside in drafting Fred Taylor as late as the seventh round.

Fred Taylor 220 carries 1056 yds (4.8 ypc) 5 TDs and 28 receptions for 210 yards and 1 TD

 

[Byron_nyc]

The fact that there are only two posts here reveals the truth: most fantasy owners are deeply bored with Fred Taylor. He's over 30, in an RBBC, has an injury reputation, plays in a small media market, next to an exciting young playmaker. So he's being drafted in the seventh and eighth rounds. To others, he's boring. To you, he's value. Pick him up late and enjoy your dirt-cheap bye week replacement or borderline RB2.

250 - 1000 - 5

 

[Sopranos]

I dont think most of us see him as a #2 anymore so thats why there is lack of interest. He will be an ok #3 and solid 4th or bye week/injury fill-in. If you could get him in the 7th that is great value. I would take him late 5th after 2 RB's 2Wr's and a QB or 3rd RB.. He looked pretty fast last season untill the hammy

 

[amphibianbri]

The MJD hype will allow Taylor to be a nice value too as a #3 back. I see Taylor in about a 60/40 ratio to keep him fresh as he is now older. Taylor's 4.6 ypc career average shows he still has some juice left. Here's what I see:

220 carries 1000 yards 4 TD's

20 receptions for 200 yards and 1 td

 

[Keg]

people are talking about value and I agree....in a recent 12 IDP Mock i drafted Fred at 9.1(97th overall)

 

[Phlash]

I will not draft his anytime before the 10th round for one reason - the wall. He had a great season last year, sure, but he wouldn't be the first RB to hit a wall with his age as a factor. Recently, things have been looking good for RBs, admittedly, with Curtis Martin putting up his best season at 31, Dillon putting up back to back 12+ TD seasons at 31 and 32, and Bettis putting up nearly 1000 yards and 13 TDs at 32. However, these kind of guys are the exception rather than the rule. Another limiting factor is that Taylor's situation is different than these other RBs - not many RBs come into the league as a backup like MJD did and tear it up with the numbers he put up last year. MJD in my opinion is ALREADY the starter as he gets the carries when they count - at the goalline and in short yardage situations. Taylor will be the backup like he was near the end of last season, but it will be for all 16 games this time around.

This is FT's ceiling in my opinion.

175/760/4 rushing

25/150/0 receiving

Again, not bad, but won't really help out your team too much except as a bye week fill in.

 

[Keg]

I will not draft his anytime before the 10th round for one reason - the wall. He had a great season last year, sure, but he wouldn't be the first RB to hit a wall with his age as a factor. Recently, things have been looking good for RBs, admittedly, with Curtis Martin putting up his best season at 31, Dillon putting up back to back 12+ TD seasons at 31 and 32, and Bettis putting up nearly 1000 yards and 13 TDs at 32. However, these kind of guys are the exception rather than the rule. Another limiting factor is that Taylor's situation is different than these other RBs - not many RBs come into the league as a backup like MJD did and tear it up with the numbers he put up last year. MJD in my opinion is ALREADY the starter as he gets the carries when they count - at the goalline and in short yardage situations. Taylor will be the backup like he was near the end of last season, but it will be for all 16 games this time around.This is FT's ceiling in my opinion.175/760/4 rushing25/150/0 receivingAgain, not bad, but won't really help out your team too much except as a bye week fill in.

from someone i read on the internet not affiliated with FBGs

1. Jaguars paid Fred Taylor a 3 year, $23 million contract extension in March for more than to watch MJD. Taylor is the starter.2. Jones-Drew had a monster set of three games last year in weeks 14-16 where he gained 395 rushing yards, 103 receiving yards and 5 TDs. This happened when Fred Taylor was slowed by a hamstring strain.3. His biggest game was when he had 166 yards and 2 TDs. This happened after Fred Taylor already had 131 yards on 9 carries with a bad hamstring in that game.4. His second best game was in week 16 when he had 131 yards and 2 TDs against NE. It had one run for 74 yards and 18 carries for 67 yards. Taylow wa held out that week with the hammy problem.5. Of games in common between the two runners while Taylor was healthy, Taylor had more rushing yards in 11 of 13 games. The only time MJD had more rushing yards was against the Colts in week 3 (29 more yards) and at KC (26 more yards) because Taylor hurt himself in that game and only had 7 carries. Basically, 1:1 had Taylor always rushing for more yardage and always being the starter.6. Outside of those three games late last year with Taylor ailing, MJD only averaged 42 rushing yards per game.He was exciting and he was a very good scorer, but Taylor is the starter and primary runner and they just paid $23 million to keep it that way. You don't want to spend a first round pick on a guy that plays behind someone else you want to get injured.

 

[Anonymous Internet User]

Here's the structure of Fred Taylor's contract extension:

2007: Base salary reduced to 800K. Given 4.2M roster bonus

2008: Base salary 4M + 1M roster bonus

2009: Base salary 5M + 1M roster bonus

2010: Base salary 6M + 1M roster bonus

In other words, this contract is heavily back-weighted. Now, I don't deny that the 4.2M guarenteed this season is a strong indicator that he won't be warming the bench, that doesn't mean they're looking to him long-term. In fact, I'd think it likely that he retires after this season - given that the Jags will likely release him before forking out another 5M to a 33 year old RB in 2008.

That said, I fully expect that MJD will bite into Fred's touches significantly, easily to the point of 50/50 split duties.

 

[KellysHeroes]

FT is a good #3 and a Great #4 that is dirt cheap.