Player Spotlight: Fred Taylor (1 Viewer)

[Jason Wood]

2008 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. Last year, we published more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters. This year will be no different.

Each week we will post a list of players to be discussed. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discussion expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Fred Taylor, RB, Jacksonville Jaguars

Player Page Link: Fred Taylor Player Page

Each article will include:

Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads
FBG Projections
Consensus Member ProjectionsThe Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

Focus commentary on the player in question, and your expectations for said player
Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
To be included in the final synopsis and consensus outlook, you MUST provide projections for the playerProjections should include (at a minimum):

For QBs: Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDsNow let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

 

[jurb26]

What Taylor did last year was truly amazing given his age, no doubt. To think he will duplicate that kind of season at 32 however would be simply crazy. Still, Jack is a team committed to running the ball and they do it well. One can only hope that Jack finally hit a on a WR this year during the off-season as that would only help this teams overall success.

220 carries, 1060 yds, 4 TDs

10 receptions, 60 yds

 

[Ministry of Pain]

200 carries, 850 yds, 4 TD

recptions minimal

 

[footballman_696969]

RB's that are 30 years old or over scare me. Especially ones with an injury history and a young, talented RB behind them looking to take over the load. The guy isn't just going to disappear though. IF he can stay healthy, he should put up top 30 RB numbers. The guy has been very consistent the last couple years putting up 1200/5.

I'll give him:

208/998/4 16/134/0

 

[Blackjacks]

It sure would have been nice to see what his career #'s would have looked like if he didn't have those nagging injuries back in the days.

I could see Freddy getting close to 800 yards and mabe 4 td's

 

[The Man with the Plan]

I think all those injuries and missed time in the past might have actually helped Fred Taylor play at such a high level in his 30's. Less games played, less hits taken has kept him fresh. Having MJD around helps with that also. As long as he keeps providing value I see no reason not to keep riding him until the wheels fall off. Whenever that may be.

225/1150/6

20/150/0

 

[Phlash]

I think all those injuries and missed time in the past might have actually helped Fred Taylor play at such a high level in his 30's. Less games played, less hits taken has kept him fresh. Having MJD around helps with that also. As long as he keeps providing value I see no reason not to keep riding him until the wheels fall off. Whenever that may be.225/1150/620/150/0

This is a little above where I expect his numbers to end up as well, but its close enough. His ceiling is probably 1250 rushing yards/250 receiving yards. I don't forsee him breaking either of those, but Fred Taylor has been historically excellent so if anyone is going to crack my ceiling numbers, it will be him.

 

[Jon_Moore]

Last year and now this year, Taylor is my favorite fantasy football value play "Savvy" owners are too smart to touch him. It's Fred Taylor, he always gets hurt. So, what happens? He drops....and drops...and drops. Until he goes at the end of the 8th or 9th round. I'm sorry, but if I see the name Fred Taylor in end of the 8th round, I'm not saying..."oh, that's fred taylor, he'll get hurt."

You don't take him in the 2nd round anymore, but people will pass on him all day long because of his injury past.

I'm going to say he plays all 16 this year instead of just the 15 he has the last 2...and he maintains the same high ypc. The Jags brought in Porter who has to be an upgrade, and Williamson should stretch the field.

240 carries

1176 yards

6 tds

14 receptions

91 yards

Decent RB2---really good RB3---considering where you can get him---all world RB4

 

[hickbones]

I think all those injuries and missed time in the past might have actually helped Fred Taylor play at such a high level in his 30's. Less games played, less hits taken has kept him fresh. Having MJD around helps with that also. As long as he keeps providing value I see no reason not to keep riding him until the wheels fall off. Whenever that may be.225/1150/620/150/0

 

[Tanner9919]

RB's that are 30 years old or over scare me. Especially ones with an injury history and a young, talented RB behind them looking to take over the load. The guy isn't just going to disappear though. IF he can stay healthy, he should put up top 30 RB numbers. The guy has been very consistent the last couple years putting up 1200/5.I'll give him:208/998/4 16/134/0

This is a different case of a 30-something RB..Since 1998, he has relatively low mileage on his legs compared to LT, who, since 2001, has carried 2365 times to FT's 2285..you don't burn out when you're on the bench healing from a recent injury.FT should come close to duplicating his #'s from last season, the speed is still there, the burst, the cuts, etc..don't forget the 'old' 30-something Curtis Martin leading the league in rushing a few years ago..225/1147/75.1 avg..

 

[TheFanatic]

The guy had a MONSTER year last year. The team went out of their way to get Taylor to the probowl since he had never been. I think they they pass the torch this year. The question is, do they run Fred into the ground and then bring in the rook or just have Fred and MJD spell each other? I think it's the latter and thus both guys are going to under-perform until Taylor gets an injury. Then MJD goes nuts...

 

[Wadsworth]

I find it interesting that Fred is coming off 5 straight regular season games over 100 yards and some people think he's basically done. If pretty much any other RB closed the season with 5 straight 100 yarders they'd be all the rage as the shark pick, but not Fred. It's the same old stuff; he's too old, he gets hurt, MJD is the man, etc. Fred's role should be the same as it's been the last 2 seasons and his numbers should be in that same area.

1,200-1,300 total yards and 5-6 TDs.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

Fred Taylor has been nothing short of outstanding the past two years. It seems that splitting carries with MJD has really helped extend his career. Still, he is 32 years old, and the end has to be in sight. I think that he'll see a slight reduction in carries this year before MJD assumes the RB1A duties in 2009. Fred will remain a value pick, although his upside is limited by his lack of use in the passing game and at the goal line.

200 carries for 1000 yards, 15 catches for 180 yards, and 5 total TDs

 

[PlasmaDogPlasma]

This is a different case of a 30-something RB..Since 1998, he has relatively low mileage on his legs compared to LT, who, since 2001, has carried 2365 times to FT's 2285..you don't burn out when you're on the bench healing from a recent injury.FT should come close to duplicating his #'s from last season, the speed is still there, the burst, the cuts, etc..don't forget the 'old' 30-something Curtis Martin leading the league in rushing a few years ago..225/1147/75.1 avg..

I was going to make basically the same case that all the tendon/ligament pulls/tears he's had in his career have actually reduced the amount problems from cumulative pounding that you would expect in a RB his age. On the flip side though, he does not get the inside-the-five carries and hasn't topped 6 TDs since 2002. He's also not a good receiver, which is odd because early in his career he was considered a dual threat. 225/1125/5

 

[Iwannabeacowboybaby!]

Fred Taylor has gone over 1000 yards in 5 of the last 6 seasons. This guy just oozed value in the last few seasons as MJD has been the back of choice in the early rounds of fantasy football drafts. However, Fred Taylor helped catalyst many football teams through the playoffs including mine last season as he kept rushing for over 100 yards in those all important weeks at the end of the season. Fred Taylor is a class act and it's hard not to root for such an old pro.

1100 yards 6 td's 5 receptions for 65 yards

 

[by_the_sea_wannabe]

Fred Taylor has been nothing short of outstanding the past two years. It seems that splitting carries with MJD has really helped extend his career. Still, he is 32 years old, and the end has to be in sight. I think that he'll see a slight reduction in carries this year before MJD assumes the RB1A duties in 2009. Fred will remain a value pick, although his upside is limited by his lack of use in the passing game and at the goal line.200 carries for 1000 yards, 15 catches for 180 yards, and 5 total TDs

Just a quick comment that you are projecting him to avg. 12 yards per catch, his highest was 10.5, and he has averaged 8.4.200 carries 1000 yards4 TD15 catches105 yards

 

[rzrback77]

A quick review of the listed projections in this thread. Of the ones that listed carries, none were under 200. Only three of thirteen were less than 1,000 yards and one of those was for 998. They averaged around 1,075 and 5 TDs. But yet he drops down very far in drafts. At the age of 32, there is even more suspicion that the wheels will fall off so he should drop even farther. I just have difficulty projecting for so many carries at the age of 32.

Fred Taylor 180 carries for 770 yards 4.28 ypc with 10 catches for 90 yards and 3 TDs

 

[jurb26]

A quick review of the listed projections in this thread. Of the ones that listed carries, none were under 200. Only three of thirteen were less than 1,000 yards and one of those was for 998. They averaged around 1,075 and 5 TDs. But yet he drops down very far in drafts. At the age of 32, there is even more suspicion that the wheels will fall off so he should drop even farther. I just have difficulty projecting for so many carries at the age of 32.Fred Taylor 180 carries for 770 yards 4.28 ypc with 10 catches for 90 yards and 3 TDs

The reason Taylor drops in drafts is because he doesn't score enough TDs. The most anyone has him projected for is 6 in this thread.

 

[Jon_Moore]

A quick review of the listed projections in this thread. Of the ones that listed carries, none were under 200. Only three of thirteen were less than 1,000 yards and one of those was for 998. They averaged around 1,075 and 5 TDs. But yet he drops down very far in drafts. At the age of 32, there is even more suspicion that the wheels will fall off so he should drop even farther. I just have difficulty projecting for so many carries at the age of 32.Fred Taylor 180 carries for 770 yards 4.28 ypc with 10 catches for 90 yards and 3 TDs

The reason Taylor drops in drafts is because he doesn't score enough TDs. The most anyone has him projected for is 6 in this thread.

Yup. The 1000-1100 should be there, great value at where he's going. If he busts...oh well, you lost your 8th rounder.

 

[bcr8f]

It sure would have been nice to see what his career #'s would have looked like if he didn't have those nagging injuries back in the days.I could see Freddy getting close to 800 yards and mabe 4 td's

That's for sure. He was a home run hitter back then.

 

[twistd]

It is interesting that people are still talking about Fred Taylor being injury prone. In the last six years Taylor has started 87 games. Portis only started 84, but yet he is viewed as a tough guy. In the last three years Taylor started 41 games and Larry Johnson only started 40. I think Taylor outgrew the 'Fragile Fred' label a long time ago. I was glad to see him go to the Pro Bowl.

 

[Wadsworth]

A quick review of the listed projections in this thread. Of the ones that listed carries, none were under 200. Only three of thirteen were less than 1,000 yards and one of those was for 998. They averaged around 1,075 and 5 TDs. But yet he drops down very far in drafts. At the age of 32, there is even more suspicion that the wheels will fall off so he should drop even farther. I just have difficulty projecting for so many carries at the age of 32.Fred Taylor 180 carries for 770 yards 4.28 ypc with 10 catches for 90 yards and 3 TDs

The reason Taylor drops in drafts is because he doesn't score enough TDs. The most anyone has him projected for is 6 in this thread.

Not being particularly productive as a receiver and lack of TDs have held him back somewhat. It's a very short list of RBs that have averaged more yards per carry or per game.

 

[geoff8695]

RB's that are 30 years old or over scare me. Especially ones with an injury history and a young, talented RB behind them looking to take over the load. The guy isn't just going to disappear though. IF he can stay healthy, he should put up top 30 RB numbers. The guy has been very consistent the last couple years putting up 1200/5.

I'll give him:

208/998/4 16/134/0

This is a different case of a 30-something RB..Since 1998, he has relatively low mileage on his legs compared to LT, who, since 2001, has carried 2365 times to FT's 2285..

you don't burn out when you're on the bench healing from a recent injury.

FT should come close to duplicating his #'s from last season, the speed is still there, the burst, the cuts, etc..

don't forget the 'old' 30-something Curtis Martin leading the league in rushing a few years ago..

225/1147/7

5.1 avg..

Curtis Martin may have led the league in 2004 when he rushed for 1,697 yards at the ripe old age of 31, but the following season Curtis rushed 220 times for ONLY 735 yards! Oh what a difference a year makes for an NFL runningback, particularly in year (30+n)+1.

So if you're going to cite Curtis Martin as an example of what a 32 year old RB can do, then I'ld like to point out that Curtis Martin's last hurrah was at age 31... as was Warrick Dunn's... as was Ricky Watters'... as was Emmit Smith's... as was Tiki Barber's... Beginning to notice a pattern?

In fairness, Curtis Martin isn't the only 32 year old RB to have carried over 200 times in a season. Over the last 20 seasons in the NFL there are a total of eight RBs who have achieved this rare accomplishment:

Marcus Allen 3x

Emmitt Smith 3x

Ottis Anderson 2x

Jerome Bettis

Mike Anderson

Warrick Dunn

Curtis Martin

Lamar Smith

These 8 RBs account for ALL 13 instances during the last 20 yrs. in which ANY RB over age 32 has carried the football 200 times or more in a season. Three of them managed to break 1,000 yards rushing at age 32 (never to do so again). The highest single season rushing total belongs to Ottis Anderson who in 1989 rushed for a whopping 1,023 yards on 325 rushes. The most recent to do so was Mike Anderson, who in 2005 had 239 rushes for 1,014 yards for the Broncos. Emmit completes the triumvirate with his 2001 totals of 261 carries for 1,021 yards. Not exactly pro bowl worthy numbers are they?

If you had to wager, where might you expect Fred Taylor's drop off to be most likely to occur?

I'm going to wager that 2008 is most likely to be the beginning of the end for Taylor, because of age and also the presence of 23 year old MJD, whom the coaching staff has already indicated they trust to take on a larger load.

Now I'm not saying it's impossible for Taylor to rush 200 times or to gain over 1,000 yards again in 2008, but ignoring the historical production drop off of NFL RBs over age 32 is just silly IMO.

 

[Jon_Moore]

I feel your data is misleading.

How many carries did these people have at that age?

Emmitt already had over 3500 at that age

at 32, 1100 total yards 3 tds

33, 1000 and 5

at 35 1,000 and 9.

You left out that Ottis Anderson had a whopping 14 tds to go with that 1000 yards

Allen Broke 1,000 total yards from the age of 33-37 each year...with 47 tds in the 5 year span.

Mike Anderson went into a backup role...not sure how he's supposed to get over 200 carries behind some of the established workhorses he's backed up.

Dunn may be finished, but that was a horrible situation in Atlanta last year, not 100% we've seen the last of him.

Smith had 900 yards and 7 tds at 33...which is maybe slightly more points than what Taylor is being projected for.

The point is, these guys weren't the same talents that put them into the hall of fame in some cases, but they were still very productive, and still very good to have as a rb3 and in a number of cases a rb2.

Edit to add, I've said alot about this thread, I don't own Taylor in any leagues...but will draft the crap out of him, and look to trade for him in my dynasties.

 

[geoff8695]

I respect you're views Jon, but I think you're missing my point.

I'm not saying that Taylor is guaranteed to be an abject failure in 2008. What I'm saying is that historically RBs who reach Freddie's age are simply unable to achieve the levels of production that they were formerly accustomed to. There also seems to be an abrupt and significant decline occuring after age 31 (even amongst life time achievers like Fred Taylor).

I feel your data is misleading.

How many carries did these people have at that age?

Emmitt already had over 3500 at that age

at 32, 1100 total yards 3 tds

33, 1000 and 5

at 35 1,000 and 9.

Emmitt is the all-time leading rusher in NFL history and didn't have a young stud like MJD on hand to take away carries as his elite talents began to erode away. Emmitt even left the Cowboys to ensure that he could continue to be a #1 RB elsewhere. Also, even as a primary ball carrier Emmitt's carries and YPC and TD totals were a far cry from the production levels he had atttained prior to 32 years of age. Emmitt is a great example of an NFL RBs skills deteriorating in his early 30s. Are you really willing to bet that Taylor continues to produce at the levels of 2006 and 2007, in which he enjoyed the highest YPC of his entire career? Also, if his YPC decreases do you think that Jack Del Rio won't lean more upon MJD?

You left out that Ottis Anderson had a whopping 14 tds to go with that 1000 yards

Ottis Anderson was a very talented back who rushed for over 10,000 yds in his career, but he didn't have to share with a young MJD type and Ottis was a TD machine between 88-90 for the NYG scoring 33 times on the ground. Do you think Freddie will sniff 10+ TDs?

Allen Broke 1,000 total yards from the age of 33-37 each year...with 47 tds in the 5 year span.

Marcus Allen is yet another RB who rushed for over 10k yards like Smith and Anderson and is also the 2nd leading TD producer on the ground (behind Emmitt). While Allen shared carries and one could try to draw a comparison between Taylor's shared workload, it must be noted that Allen was a TD machine and also averaged over 28 receptions per season from the ages of 33-37. Fred Taylor is certainly not going to threaten the all time TD scoring leaders, and he only had 9 receptions in '07. I don't think you can reasonably expect Taylor's 'total' yards to get a similar Marcus Allen type boost in the passing game. Unfortunately for Taylor, MJD is the receiving back and TD specialist in the Jaguars backfield...

Mike Anderson went into a backup role...not sure how he's supposed to get over 200 carries behind some of the established workhorses he's backed up.

Mike Anderson is the odd ball of the bunch. He was very fortunate to have benefited from being the Broncos flavor of the year back in 2005, but I think Fred Taylor has far more talent. Unfortunately Freddie wasn't lucky enough to have played for Shanahan and the Broncos back when Denver was a plug-n-play paradise for NFL RBs.

Dunn may be finished, but that was a horrible situation in Atlanta last year, not 100% we've seen the last of him.

Dunn is yet another lifetime achiever with over 10k rushing yards who is on the wrong side of 30. I loved his career but he is the perfect example of a VERY good NFL RB like Curtis Martin who enjoyed a last hurrah at age 31, and then at age 32 began a sharp decline. I'm pretty sure that he will never again account for 200 touches or 1,000 total yds. IMO you can stick a fork in him for fantasy purposes because Dunn is done...

Smith had 900 yards and 7 tds at 33...which is maybe slightly more points than what Taylor is being projected for.

Smith only scored 5 TDs at age 33 but regardless of how many TDs he scored, his production from age 33 on simply wasn't what it had been prior to age 32. Certainly 900 yards and 7 TDs sounds fantastic for Taylor in 2008, but it wasn't so fantastic for Emmit Smith when you consider how much of a decline in production that represented from previous years. I think the lesson we should be learning here isn't that the all time leading rusher was still able to contribute and rack up stats, but rather that 33 year old RBs just don't continue to produce as they did a couple of seasons prior.

The point is, these guys weren't the same talents that put them into the hall of fame in some cases, but they were still very productive, and still very good to have as a rb3 and in a number of cases a rb2.

I don't understand anyone concluding from this that Taylor is somehow in a good position to remain a fantasy RB2/RB3 in 2008. What I would say is that it is a very rare occurence for a 32+ year old RB to be relevant in fantasy football. Sure Taylor has a good pedigree and over 10k yds. rushing and he should still rack up carries in 2008, but he isn't a good receiver, he has a very well seasoned 23 year old MJD breathing down his neck, and now is on the wrong side of 32. If he declines in YPC it's not like he can make up for it in TDs and receptions, and unless MJD gets injured, then I would not want to bet on him continuing to produce near his 2006 and 2007 levels of production.

Edit to add, I've said alot about this thread, I don't own Taylor in any leagues...but will draft the crap out of him, and look to trade for him in my dynasties.

Fred Taylor might be an inexpensive option still in redraft that can perform as a RB3 and be had at RB4 prices, but I have to agree to disagree with you here when it comes to dynasty leagues. Now I could understand using him as a one year rental to be your bye week fill-in or a 4th RB if the price is right, but you're increasingly unlikely to get any meaningful production out of him especially after this season.

 

[Jon_Moore]

The last one was meant to be Lamar Smith, but it was 32, not 33. 904 yards, 7 tds total.

My point was, these guys OBVIOUSLY weren't the same studs they had been, but they had very serviceable fantasy #s.