Player Spotlight: Hines Ward (1 Viewer)

[Jason Wood]

2008 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. Last year, we published more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters. This year will be no different.

Each week we will post a list of players to be discussed. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discussion expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Hines Ward, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers

Player Page Link: Hines Ward Player Page

Each article will include:

Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads
FBG Projections
Consensus Member ProjectionsThe Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

Focus commentary on the player in question, and your expectations for said player
Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
To be included in the final synopsis and consensus outlook, you MUST provide projections for the playerProjections should include (at a minimum):

For QBs: Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDsNow let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Ward has not reached 80 catches since 2004. Now they draft Limas Sweed to go with Santonio Holmes who will want more looks too...none of this makes for improved numbers for Hines Ward. I usually like the 30 something year old WR who get overlooked, but in Ward's case it appears he is on the downside of his career at this point. Not every WR can play till they are 36 years old. Mark Duper and Mark Clayton both retired in their early 30s. I think Ward is a guy that simply will put up very avg numbers and liekly will end up on the waiver wires in some leagues.

56 rec, 700 yds, 4TD

I feel like I am being generous actually.

 

[The Man with the Plan]

Hines Ward hasn't had a 1000-yard season since 2004 and even that season he barely reached that total (1004). So he could have been going on 4 consecutive seasons without reaching even 1000 yards. He's a decent receiver in ppr leagues but that's about it.

 

[Kitrick Taylor]

I think Ward has a good chance of being under rated this year. MOP's facts are correct. It was 2004 the last time he had 80 catches. But he has averaged 72 catches for 895 yards and 8 TDs since.

Look at each of those season's individually.

2005: 69/975/11 Big Ben's rookie year, and Ward finishes as the #10 WR in fantasy.

2006: 74/975/6 Big Ben's injury year, where he played despite the motorcycle accident and appendectomy. Ward finished 23rd.

2007: 71/732/7 Hines suffered tears to his MCL, PCL and miniscus week 3 of 2007. He missed a couple of games early and one late, and finished 30th among WRs.

A couple ways to look at this. Hines is getting older, and his production has slipped each of the last three years. Not a good sign. However, a optimitic view would say his TD totals remain good, the offense opened up quite a bit in 2007, he's had his knee repaired, and he's got Big Ben throwing the rock. If you think Big Ben can come close to his 32 TDs again, Ward should be a major factor in plenty of those.

I think his upside numbers are 80/1100/10.

Downside without major injury would be 60/700/5

Probable: 75/1000/8

After the top 20 WRs are gone you could do a lot worse than Ward. He's still the favorite target of one of the games best QBs. Look at the QBs of some of the other WRs FBGs has rated in the 20s. Roddy White, Cotchery and Coles, Lee Evans, Calvin Johnson, Joey Galloway, Driver, Santana Moss and Chris Chambers are the WRs. The QBs? Aaron Rodgers is the highest rated by FBGs at 15th. The rest? Rivers (16th), Kitna (17th), Campbell (20th), Garcia (21st), Edwards (24th), Clemens (28th), Ryan (33rd).

Many of those WRs are sexier picks than Ward, but at the end of the season I think Ward comes out ahead of all of them.

 

[footballman_696969]

Ward has not reached 80 catches since 2004. Now they draft Limas Sweed to go with Santonio Holmes who will want more looks too...none of this makes for improved numbers for Hines Ward. I usually like the 30 something year old WR who get overlooked, but in Ward's case it appears he is on the downside of his career at this point. Not every WR can play till they are 36 years old. Mark Duper and Mark Clayton both retired in their early 30s. I think Ward is a guy that simply will put up very avg numbers and liekly will end up on the waiver wires in some leagues. 56 rec, 700 yds, 4TDI feel like I am being generous actually.

I am also the guy who loves the 30 something year old WR that gets overlooked. Ward's numbers have been dwindling the last three years, but he has missed time due to injury. His avg over those 3 years would be 5/64/.57. He is a great blocker, route runner, and has always been a hard worker. On top of that, he is Big Ben's favourite target. I'm projecting 76/836/7

 

[TheFanatic]

I have faith in Ward. The writing is on the wall. The new guard is ready to take over. The guy better play strong or he's going to be looking for work next season.

80/1100/7

Rock solid WR2 numbers. Nothing spectacular, but solid...

 

[rzrback77]

Pittsburgh has had great success in the passing game over the past three seasons. They haven't always passed a lot, but when they did it was successful. Big Ben has averaged 8.1, 7.8, and 7.7 yards per attempt in 05, 06, and 07. The split between runs and passes is highlighted below:

05 - 483 runs (56.3%) for 2,015 yards and 4.17 ypc passes 225 comp 375 att for 3037 yds and 8.1 ypa

06 - 415 runs (44.7%) for 1,816 yards and 4.38 ypc passes 311 comp 514 att for 4008 yds and 7.8 ypa

07 - 453 runs (50.7%) for 1,906 yards and 4.21 ypc passes 284 comp 440 att for 3386 yds and 7.7 ypa

Even though there have been questions about their offensive line especially for the running game, I think that the Steelers will continue to run more often than pass, so the opportunities will be on line with 05 and 07. Additionally, Ward has seen increased challenges to his targets. In the past two seasons, Holmes has increased his targets per game from 5.4 to 6.5. Heath Miller likewise has increased from 3.2 to 3.4 and last year to 3.8. During the off-season, Roethlisberger campaigned for a tall red zone target WR and the Steelers drafted Limas Sweed. Miller had two more TDs in 07 than 06. Holmes had six more in 07 than 06. Sounds like the red zone targets for Ward could also be on the decline.

Hines Ward is not yet old, he just turned 32. But his body has been through so many more collisions than a typical WR because he loves to block and seeks out contact. Could this also lead to a slow down? His ypc has dropped from 14.1 two years ago down to 10.3 last year. I see some risk for the guy with a current ADP of WR23 and 62 overall.

Hines Ward 110 targets 70 catches 700 yards for 10.0 ypc and 4 TDs

 

[Tanner9919]

Sweed won't contribute much right away, not many rookie WRs do..

I'd expect Ward to still post decent numbers, but he hasn't played a full 16-game schedule since 2004..a 30-something WR with injuries occuring late in his career, is not a good sign of things to come..

Ward

50/500/3

I just can't see him staying on the field for all 16 games..I'm not predicting an injury, I'm going by the recent trend: the fact that he's been hurt 3 years in a row..I think that will continue this season..

Santonio Holmes is ready to become the top WR for the Steelers, in this his third season..

 

[Jon_Moore]

EVERYTHING about Hines Ward is on the decline.

His receptions have dropped almost steadily over the past 4 seasons except for a slight bump in 2006.

His games played has dropped over the past 4 seasons

His Yards have dropped since 2002

His Yards per Reception have dropped the past 3 seasons.

His YAC went from 5.0 in 2004 to 3.6 in 2007

He's a very physical receiver that does alot of blocking on a very run heavy offense. He's 32, his body has had more wear than most receivers at that age. They bring in a 1st round running back to compliment Parker, Holmes looks poised to explode, I just don't see alot of, if any reasons to be high on Hines.

68 Receptions

843 Yards

7 Tds