Player Spotlight: J.P. Losman (1 Viewer)

[Jason Wood]

2007 Player Spotlight Series

Over the course of the offseason, we will be evaluating a multitude of players at every fantasy position. One such way we go about that is through the Player Spotlight series. Think of the Spotlights as a permanent record on some of the more intriguing players for the upcoming season. Each Spotlight will be featured in an article on the main website.

Thread Topic: J.P. Losman, QB, Buffalo Bills

Player Page Link: J.P. Losman Player Page

Each article will include:

Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads
FBG Projections
Consensus Member ProjectionsThe Rules

In order for this thread to provide sustainable value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

Focus commentary on the player in question, and your expectations for said player
Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
To be included in the final synopsis and consensus outlook, you MUST provide projections for the playerProjections should include (at a minimum):

For QBs: Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDsBest of Luck and ENJOY!

 

[sholditch]

OK, I'll take the first crack at this one. JP is available as an FA in my two-QB dynasty league and is looking like an interesting prospect should he fall to the 2nd.

he had a better year last year than most (me included) realized, and had a fairly stellar final seven weeks. Starting November 19 Losman caught fire, and continued strong play through the end of 06. In that stretch (7 games) Los threw 13 TDs to 8 INTs, belying his yearly totals of 19-14. In those games he dipped below 200 yards thrice but never got below 150, and topped 300 once (against the Texans). The rest of the teams his semi-success came against aren't shabby defensively: Miami, Baltimore, Jacksonville and San Diego to go with Houston, NYJ, and Tennessee. Just assuming the general learning curve3 continues, I'll say:

300 completions for 3,350 passing, 24 TDs and 18 ints

but someone needs to emerge as a TE and WR2 on that team.

 

[rzrback77]

TJ Losman quietly finished as QB 14 last season in his third year in the NFL, but really first year as the full time starting QB. He is a former 1st round draft choice (22nd overall) who does not lack for confidence.

In the first half of 06, he had five games with less than ten fantasy points, but in the final eight he had double digit in six of the eight, including the final five in a row. He had six multiple TD games and only three without a score.

His favorite receiver is without a doubt Lee Evans, but after that there is not an ideal second option. The other WRs remain from 06, where they caught 49, 34, and 23 passes each. Probably more than most would realize, but not enough to strike fear in any NFL defense. The RBs added only 47 receptions and the TEs 31. If Lee Evans were to get hurt, Losman's value would free fall.

The offensive line should be improved and I think that the passing numbers will inch up from last year as more production is achieved out of the RBs and TEs than previously. Pretty good value for the QB 21 taken as late as 119.

Losman 270 completions out of 420 attempts (64.3%) for 3050 yards (7.2 ypa) 22 TDs and 15 ints and add 120 yards rushing and 2 TDs

 

[GoBills02]

Couple of random points:

1. First year JP is going into training camp with the same playbook.

2. Marshawn Lynch SHOULD be a better pass catching option out of the backfield.

3. IMO - improved Offensive Line.

4. Trent Edwards = motivation?

Excellent point about the #2 WR. Who knows, it seems the Bills have 3 #3 Wrs...who will step up? Price, Reed, Parrish?

Will Kevin Everett finally show up? Had a good mini camp, but it remains to be seen if he can become the target envisioned when he was drafted.

 

[shadyridr]

I think Losman improved drastically and I like his gunslinger mentality. But that is just not an impressive offensive team. They have a stud WR in Evans and a rookie RB in Lynch but not much else. I projected Evans with 9 TDs and Lynch with 1 TD rec. How many more TD receptions can we give Price, Reed, and Royal? Maybe 5 combined? That leaves Losman with only 15 TD passes. So while Im high on Losman's potential this is not a very good offense to put up great passing numbers. Id take him as a QB2 and hope for upside.

3400 yds, 15 TDs, 13 ints, 100 rush yds, 1 td

 

[ScottNorwood]

STUD

 

[On The Rocks]

Couple of random points:4. Trent Edwards = motivation?

100% Non-factor.

 

[On The Rocks]

I think the OL has improved enough to help him. The big question is backfield help. McGahee as much as most Bills fans are glad he is gone, was a very polished pass blocker. I am not comfortable leaving Lynch in that roll, and if it means Anthony Thomas is brought in or an H-Back option kept in for blocking, it might leave Lynch on the bench for a majority of 3rd downs.

They open the season with what looks like a monster schedule on paper.

This is either going to let Losman cut it lose if they are playing from behind, or it will crush his confidence early on.

I like what I have read about their mini-camp and OTA workouts. Although there seemed to be a lot of defensive pass knock downs and interceptions. Steve Fairchild seemed to start a lot of their sessions off with no huddle - hurry up sessions. And there has been a lot of talk about 3 and 4 WR sets being installed to the offense this off-season. It will be hard for them to duplicate the "Greatest Show on Turf" with only one prime target in Lee Evans, and it will be especially hard to chuck downfield in the winter months. All but one December game is played south of Washington DC.

430 Att.

280 Comp.

3360 Yards

22 TD

18 INT

The interceptions are still high and hopefully, he will begin to lower that number next year.

I am hoping that I can get him as a 3rd QB on my roster, but I would be comfortable going into the season if he were a late 2nd QB.

 

[GoBills02]

I think the OL has improved enough to help him. The big question is backfield help. McGahee as much as most Bills fans are glad he is gone, was a very polished pass blocker. I am not comfortable leaving Lynch in that roll, and if it means Anthony Thomas is brought in or an H-Back option kept in for blocking, it might leave Lynch on the bench for a majority of 3rd downs.They open the season with what looks like a monster schedule on paper. This is either going to let Losman cut it lose if they are playing from behind, or it will crush his confidence early on.I like what I have read about their mini-camp and OTA workouts. Although there seemed to be a lot of defensive pass knock downs and interceptions. Steve Fairchild seemed to start a lot of their sessions off with no huddle - hurry up sessions. And there has been a lot of talk about 3 and 4 WR sets being installed to the offense this off-season. It will be hard for them to duplicate the "Greatest Show on Turf" with only one prime target in Lee Evans, and it will be especially hard to chuck downfield in the winter months. All but one December game is played south of Washington DC.430 Att.280 Comp.3360 Yards22 TD18 INTThe interceptions are still high and hopefully, he will begin to lower that number next year.I am hoping that I can get him as a 3rd QB on my roster, but I would be comfortable going into the season if he were a late 2nd QB.

Calling Trent Edwards a 100% non factor is just off, no matter if you spin it that he will be looking over his shoulder worried or will motivate him. Anytime a team spends a high draft pick on a QB, there is room for concern. I know his value was there, but JP has to be thnking about this pick one way or the other.And calling McGahee a polished run blocker? I can recall 2 instances where he missed an assignment and got JP hammered. Both resulted in fumbles.

 

[On The Rocks]

Calling Trent Edwards a 100% non factor is just off, no matter if you spin it that he will be looking over his shoulder worried or will motivate him. Anytime a team spends a high draft pick on a QB, there is room for concern. I know his value was there, but JP has to be thnking about this pick one way or the other.And calling McGahee a polished run blocker? I can recall 2 instances where he missed an assignment and got JP hammered. Both resulted in fumbles.

Maybe initially Losman scratched his head at the Edwards pick as if to say, what is the reasoning behind that, but I doubt after the OTA's and the Mini Camp there is any question. I wasn't there but I suspect Edwards barely saw any snaps in those workouts let along Craig Nall.McGahee wasn't perfect, but he was and is a good pass blocker. I remember when he replaced Travis Henry, the sacks to Bledsoe went down significantly due to the improved protection. And it took a lot to protect Bledsoe from his own shadow.

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

I like what I have read about their mini-camp and OTA workouts. Although there seemed to be a lot of defensive pass knock downs and interceptions. Steve Fairchild seemed to start a lot of their sessions off with no huddle - hurry up sessions. And there has been a lot of talk about 3 and 4 WR sets being installed to the offense this off-season. It will be hard for them to duplicate the "Greatest Show on Turf" with only one prime target in Lee Evans.

Im kinda excited about Losman based on the same things you are reading. Im not really worried about the lack of prime targets, in fact Parrish seems ideal, and Reed and Price should be serviceable. It makes the Bills lack of urgency to get a big target make a LOT more sense - they are adopting the "cockroaches when the lights are turned on" passing game - small quick guys who flummox the D by going every which way when the ball is snapped. If the QB makes the right decisions quickly, and the offensive line does the dirty work to keep those passing lanes open for the quick drop/set/throw nature of the offense, it can be potent, as long as the receivers are in the right place at the right time...

 

[Grigs Allmoon]

McGahee as much as most Bills fans are glad he is gone, was a very polished pass blocker.

McGahee was probably worse at pass bocking than pass receiving.

 

[Grigs Allmoon]

McGahee wasn't perfect, but he was and is a good pass blocker. I remember when he replaced Travis Henry, the sacks to Bledsoe went down significantly due to the improved protection. And it took a lot to protect Bledsoe from his own shadow.

Not to , but Henry is MUCH better at blocking than McGahee. I'm actually quite perplexed as to how anyone would consider McGahee a good pass blocker. The guy had no heart, and that's what it takes to do the dirty work.As for Edwards, I'm obviously speculating, but I'll bet it doesn't bother JP at all. He's a smart guy. He knows their bench is short at QB, and he probably fully understands why they drafted a QB. And, he's got the confidence, and experience to feel like it's his job for a while.

 

[Obie Wan]

I think the OL has improved enough to help him. The big question is backfield help. McGahee as much as most Bills fans are glad he is gone, was a very polished pass blocker. I am not comfortable leaving Lynch in that roll, and if it means Anthony Thomas is brought in or an H-Back option kept in for blocking, it might leave Lynch on the bench for a majority of 3rd downs.They open the season with what looks like a monster schedule on paper. This is either going to let Losman cut it lose if they are playing from behind, or it will crush his confidence early on.I like what I have read about their mini-camp and OTA workouts. Although there seemed to be a lot of defensive pass knock downs and interceptions. Steve Fairchild seemed to start a lot of their sessions off with no huddle - hurry up sessions. And there has been a lot of talk about 3 and 4 WR sets being installed to the offense this off-season. It will be hard for them to duplicate the "Greatest Show on Turf" with only one prime target in Lee Evans, and it will be especially hard to chuck downfield in the winter months. All but one December game is played south of Washington DC.430 Att.280 Comp.3360 Yards22 TD18 INTThe interceptions are still high and hopefully, he will begin to lower that number next year.I am hoping that I can get him as a 3rd QB on my roster, but I would be comfortable going into the season if he were a late 2nd QB.

Lynch right now (without a single day of training camp) is a better pass blocker and more of an asset in the passing game than Willis will ever be.

 

[On The Rocks]

McGahee wasn't perfect, but he was and is a good pass blocker. I remember when he replaced Travis Henry, the sacks to Bledsoe went down significantly due to the improved protection. And it took a lot to protect Bledsoe from his own shadow.

Not to , but Henry is MUCH better at blocking than McGahee. I'm actually quite perplexed as to how anyone would consider McGahee a good pass blocker. The guy had no heart, and that's what it takes to do the dirty work.

Yes, McGahee had no heart last year.But before that, not only did he have heart, but I am going to stand by what I said, McGahee was...yes...he was...a much better pass blocker than Henry.But this is Losman thread so I am not going to

 

[GoBills02]

And Edwards got a TON of snaps in the OTA's as reported by Chris Brown. The reasoning was said to let him learn the playbook because JP and Nall have a year under their belts with it.

I do like the idea of 4 WR spread with Evans, Price, Parrish, and Lynch spread out with A Train in the back as a blocker. We shall see......

As Sigmund hit it on the head, IF Jp can hit the right read....with a year in the system and ALMOST full off season participation from the offense, I can't see him regressing.

 

[GroveDiesel]

McGahee wasn't perfect, but he was and is a good pass blocker. I remember when he replaced Travis Henry, the sacks to Bledsoe went down significantly due to the improved protection. And it took a lot to protect Bledsoe from his own shadow.

Not to , but Henry is MUCH better at blocking than McGahee. I'm actually quite perplexed as to how anyone would consider McGahee a good pass blocker. The guy had no heart, and that's what it takes to do the dirty work.

Yes, McGahee had no heart last year.But before that, not only did he have heart, but I am going to stand by what I said, McGahee was...yes...he was...a much better pass blocker than Henry.But this is Losman thread so I am not going to

You're going to be alone on that one. :( Henry wasn't that great at pass blocking either, but McGahee was terrible. He barely knew the playbook and had little clue what his blocking assigments were most times on pass plays. Lynch is known to be a very good pass blocker and will be an immediate upgrade IMO.Losman is going to be a guy that is going to fly under the radar for most people. Last year was his first full year starting and he progressed a lot from the beginning to the end of the season. And with the Bills talking about opening the offense up (and camp reports backing that up so far), I think his numbers will do nothing but go up. I think this will be the season where he really makes people finally realize that he's a legit star QB and it will be the last year that you'll be able to get him as a bargain.3350 passing yards23 passing TDs16 INTs200 yards rushing2 TDs

 

[Grigs Allmoon]

Yes, McGahee had no heart last year.

McGahee lost every ounce of heart once he took over the starting job. I remember his first year (I think) when there was a fumble (By Bledsoe, I think) in the backfield and McGahee was closest to the defender who recovered it. After a 60-70 yard return, who was closest to making a tackle? Josh Reed who was out in a pass route. The "game breaking" Willis McGahee wasn't even in the picture. Heck, he likely missed the pass block that caused the fumble...Oh well, good riddance McGahee... As for JP... There is no doubt he will improve. How could he not? A better OLine. A better overall RB. The same WR corp (not aging). A worse D (That's easily overlooked in this situation. Should/could be even more playing from behind.) And, 1 more year of experience for a young, up and coming QB.

 

[LHUCKS]

Losman is creating a buzz amongst NFL insiders...excellent buy low candidate if your league mates are asleep at the wheel.

 

[GreenNGold]

BONAFIDE STUD!!!!

 

[D_House]

bump.

 

[Monsters of the Midway]

Pros

Seems to be improving each year

Allegedly improved OL

Stud target to make big plays when he occasionally throws the ball up for grabs

Made a breakthrough at the end of last year (last 7 games: 222 y/g with 12 TDs)

Mobile

Pretty good playoff matchups if you're into that sort of thing: WAS, MIA, CLE, NYG

Cons:

Schedule is a nightmare-5 of his first 6 games are DEN, PIT, NE, BAL, DAL.

Very hot and cold, will have a few big games and a few stinkers

Unknown commodity at RB though the guy he's replacing didn't set the world on fire last year

I'm fine with him as my #2 if I'm set at #1. If my #1 is a bit iffy (outside of the top 6 or so) I will probably look for a better candidate. I'd reach for him as a great risk/reward #3 (my drafts run long, 25 or 27 rounds with no free agents).