Player Spotlight: Jamal Lewis (1 Viewer)

[Jason Wood]

2008 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. Last year, we published more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters. This year will be no different.

Each week we will post a list of players to be discussed. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discussion expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Jamal Lewis, RB, Cleveland Browns

Player Page Link: Jamal Lewis Player Page

Each article will include:

Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads
FBG Projections
Consensus Member ProjectionsThe Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

Focus commentary on the player in question, and your expectations for said player
Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
To be included in the final synopsis and consensus outlook, you MUST provide projections for the playerProjections should include (at a minimum):

For QBs: Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDsNow let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

 

[Sweet Love]

While Jamal Lewis was one of the best bargains last season, I do not think he will continue at last year's pace. He'll be 29 years old when the season starts, and has over 2000 carries for his career. We have been waiting for him to break down for the past couple of years, but I think '08 will be the year we see the decline of Lewis. Coupled with the fact Anderson has year as a starter under his belt, plus the addition of Stallworth (to go with Winslow and Edwards), I have a feeling this team is built to throw it and Lewis will struggle for the opportunities he had last year.

I see:

260 carries, 950 yards and 5 TDs.

 

[Verbal Kint]

Awesome. Player Spotlight day is like Christmas Eve to me. The season has officially started! On to Jamal...

I have to conflicting opinions on this spotlight. First, the negative, Jamal is not the 2,000 yard back we remember from 2003. Granted, he had a resurgance last year, but let's look at where he excelled. He had 100+ yds against Cincinnati, Houston, Jets, Buffalo and SF. Hardly a ringing endorsement. Couple that with one of the hardest schedules this year, playing the AFC south and NFC East (6 2007 playoff teams combined) Now for the positive. Cleveland's offense looks set to explode. The O-line seems pretty solid and they have the playmakers at WR to keep defenses from keying on him, giving him room to run.

Given he'll be drafted in round 1 this year after last year's ranking, he'll come with too much risk for me.

Rush - 1,100/7

Rec - 100/1

 

[gianmarco]

I think J. Lewis is almost guaranteed to live up to his draft spot. He is one of the few "feature" RB's remaining with virtually no competition for touches on an offense that is heading in the right direction and could be even more explosive this year. I think he did benefit from an easy 2nd half schedule last year, but I also think he finally started to look somewhat like the J. Lewis of old and is running behind a solid O-line.

320 carries, 4.2 ypc, = 1344 yds and 8 TDs

24 rec for 180 yds and 1 TD

 

[radballs]

I'm down on Lewis this year for a lot of the reasons that Big Love mentioned above. I see some regression from his stats last year as well as the entire Cleveland offense.

280 carries for 1,060 yards, 7 TDs, 24 receptions for 200 yards and 1 TD

174 FP using FBG scoring

198 FP in PPR leagues

 

[Horsec]

Did that guy above say ROUND 1???

He's round 3 in my mind... which means I think he has a couple big games but has huge potential to break down... and yes that means I think Jason Wright has some value this year, due to that... coupled with the Cle O...

220 carries 850 yards... 19 catches, 145 rec... 6 total TDs.

 

[AllVolUT]

A newly bolstered defense that will keep the Browns from playing behind might work in J. Lewis' favor this year. Having a complete offseason with DA at the helm, along with giving the OL another year to gel, J. Lewis seems a pretty safe bet to have a solid season. However as previously stated, his schedule looks brutal. People extrapolating Lewis' numbers from the second half of the season might be in for a slight disappointment.

Projections:

310 carries, 1265 yards, 8 tds

25 receptions, 250 yards, 0 tds

 

[JPeso]

Cleveland is heading the right direction, and Lewis looks poised for another big year. He showed no signs of slowing down like most thought he would, seemingly picking up speed as the year progressed. A fine RB2 and a perfect RB3.

290 rushes, 1,200 rush yards, 4.13 YPC, 7 rush TD

20 catches, 160 yards, 8.0 YPC, 1 TD

 

[RoyDubb]

Browns have one of the best OLINE in football right now. With the addition of Stallworth, this offense will be be better and with that, Jamal should get a ton of GL opportunites to score

310 rushes, 1,200 rush yards, 9 rush TD

35 catches, 220 yards, 1 TD

 

[The Man with the Plan]

Jamal Lewis ran for more than 1300 yards in 14 games last season and had 11 touchdowns. He's a talented player who plays in a good offense behind a very good offensive line. What more could you ask for from him?

1300 yds rushing, 250 yds receiving, 10 TDS = Good #1 running back, great #2 running back.

 

[by_the_sea_wannabe]

288 - 1210 - 9

23 - 168 - 1

One last good year from Lewis this year, I would expect the wagon to start breaking down next year. Top end #2 rb this year.

 

[Rodeojones]

I just picked up J. Lewis at 4.12 as my #2 RB in a start up dynasty (12 team/PPR/No IDP).

1200 yards and 7 TD's is safe and excellent value in a #2RB.

 

[css2373]

Defense, on paper, that looks to be better...except for the secondary...to go along with a top notch O-line all will help. Hurting his chances are that schedule and the QB situation. I still can't get out of my mind the sight of Anderson missing about every WR he could during the Pro Bowl, man he looked bad. So, I feel that his numbers will be somewhat down from last year.

300 1200 7

20 150 0

 

[T Bell]

Awesome. Player Spotlight day is like Christmas Eve to me. The season has officially started! On to Jamal...I have to conflicting opinions on this spotlight. First, the negative, Jamal is not the 2,000 yard back we remember from 2003. Granted, he had a resurgance last year, but let's look at where he excelled. He had 100+ yds against Cincinnati, Houston, Jets, Buffalo and SF. Hardly a ringing endorsement. Couple that with one of the hardest schedules this year, playing the AFC south and NFC East (6 2007 playoff teams combined) Now for the positive. Cleveland's offense looks set to explode. The O-line seems pretty solid and they have the playmakers at WR to keep defenses from keying on him, giving him room to run. Given he'll be drafted in round 1 this year after last year's ranking, he'll come with too much risk for me.Rush - 1,100/7Rec - 100/1

all around.I love him as a RB2 this year, but wouldn't want him as my RB1.

 

[Jason Wood]

I didn't think Jamal Lewis had last season in him. His 2,000 yard season had clearly been an anomaly and it looked like he was solidly on the downslope of his career, trying to eek out another season or two as the feature back on mediocre offensive team before someone younger, cheaper and presumably better came along to replace him.

But then the Browns went and found themselves an offense. Their line went from a major question mark to a differentiated asset. They found a QB who, while the jury is still out long-term, proved he's capable of some gaudy offensive moments.

As others have mentioned, the Browns defense should be improved. I still don't see it as elite, but the additions on the defensive line should allow the Browns to play things a little closer to the vest at times. That means, theoretically, more touches for Lewis. His 4.4 yards per carry average was his best since that fabled 2,000 yard season as were his 9 TDs (tied with 2006). He was even used in the receiving game a bit more.

Looking to this year, I expect the Browns schedule and a diminished role in the receiving game (don't count on 2 receiving TDs again this year) to somewhat counteract a slightly heavier workload. The end result should be a rock solid RB2 in 12-team leagues.

 

[JMon348]

886-8

 

[MAC_32]

Two things to point out

1 - Lewis looked at his best in December, a sign he may not be ready to wear down just yet

2 - He piled up the yards on soft run defenses in 07, this year's schedule has less soft run defenses - actually, it's brutal

In a non-ppr redraft I'd consider pairing him with one of the top 5 in the 2nd but not before then. In a PPR he'll go way too early for me to consider.

 

[TheFanatic]

The guy is a beast. Plays behind a stout O-Line and is part of a pretty potent O. The schedule looks intimidating now, but things change rapidly on the other side of the LOS. A stalwart one year is a patsy the next.

1400-9

170-0

Basically, I predict 1500 combines yards and 9 TD's.

 

[T Bell]

The guy is a beast. Plays behind a stout O-Line and is part of a pretty potent O. The schedule looks intimidating now, but things change rapidly on the other side of the LOS. A stalwart one year is a patsy the next. 1400-9170-0Basically, I predict 1500 combines yards and 9 TD's.

That puts him around ~RB7 or RB8, depending upon PPR, etc., and using last year's rankings That seems really high to me for him.

 

[TheDirtyWord]

Two things to point out

1 - Lewis looked at his best in December, a sign he may not be ready to wear down just yet

2 - He piled up the yards on soft run defenses in 07, this year's schedule has less soft run defenses - actually, it's brutal

In a non-ppr redraft I'd consider pairing him with one of the top 5 in the 2nd but not before then. In a PPR he'll go way too early for me to consider.

It's the 'piling up yards on soft run defenses' that concerns me. For one, aside from his 216 yard explosion in Week 2, you could not say that he even performed at an acceptable RB2 level until Week 11. All of his 100 yard efforts came against defenses that were ranked at 19 or worse. I actually owned Lewis last year and never felt comfortable playing him. Lewis' (and the Browns) situation reminds me of the Carolina Panthers circa 2003 when they brought in Stephen Davis and behind an unknown & unsung QB in Jake Delhomme made an improbably run to the SB.

While Davis was 29 when he had his last big year and Lewis is turning 29 this year, I also think that the momentum that the Browns rode last year helps players in the moment. Lewis was re-vitalized last year, but he also has 2100+ carries to his credit. It's worth noting that after that big year, Davis only logged 244 NFL carries from that point. While there were extenuating circumstances - a degenerative knee condition, Lewis has had his fair share of leg injuries.

I also think the Browns are this years pre-season chic pick that disappoints come time for the games to be played. I recognize that this is nothing but hunch and doesn't look at the numbers too much...I just see Lewis leading to heartbreak this year if you count on him for big RB production even though at the end of the day, that's what it looked like he provided in 2007.

Prediction: 276 carries, 1057 yards, 6 TD's, 23 receptions, 121 yards 0 TD's.

 

[Phlash]

Jamal Lewis is getting up there in age, but 29 is not exactly a bad age for a RB. He should have one good season at the very least in him.

320/1290/12

30/200/0

 

[Todem]

Jamal is a workout warrior and playing behind a good OL and a fast developing high octane passing game. He will find plenty of running room as long as Derick Anderson, Braylon, KWII and Co, prove last year was not a fluke. If the passing game continues to evolve Lewis may have even bigger numbers this year.

Also when the weather get's ugly they will feed this guy the rock over and over.

1400 Yards rushing 10 TD's

17 receptions 125 Yards 1 TD

Jamal should make a fine RB2 and can be a #1 this year and I think has a couple of years left in his tank due to his outstanding workout ethic. A value in Dynasty start up's in the late 3rd early 4th. Redraft leagues should be taking him anywhere from the late second to early 3rd as well.

Another top 7 finish is in the cards IMO. His situation is very good.

 

[J-Rock]

Lewis is such a difficult guy to rely on in FFB. He is the epitome of boom & bust. One week he'll go off for 200 yards and 4td and the next he have 35 yards and no td.

This gets us into a strategy discussion in terms of consistency vs. big game potential but I would use Lewis as an RB3 or Flex player. His numbers at the end of the year might make him appear to be a low RB1 - high RB2 but on a week to week basis I want someone I know I can rely on (especially at RB) to put up consistent numbers.

Having said all of that:

1200 combined yards & 8TD.

 

[J-Rock]

Jamal is a workout warrior and playing behind a good OL and a fast developing high octane passing game. He will find plenty of running room as long as Derick Anderson, Braylon, KWII and Co, prove last year was not a fluke. If the passing game continues to evolve Lewis may have even bigger numbers this year.

Also when the weather get's ugly they will feed this guy the rock over and over.

1400 Yards rushing 10 TD's

17 receptions 125 Yards 1 TD

Jamal should make a fine RB2 and can be a #1 this year and I think has a couple of years left in his tank due to his outstanding workout ethic. A value in Dynasty start up's in the late 3rd early 4th. Redraft leagues should be taking him anywhere from the late second to early 3rd as well.

Another top 7 finish is in the cards IMO. His situation is very good.

Case in point from my previous post. 1400 yards and 10 TD would virtually guarantee him a spot in the top 5 FFB RBs. Projecting that kind of production yet not willing to use a first round pick on him??? Something doesn't add up.

 

[gianmarco]

Jamal is a workout warrior and playing behind a good OL and a fast developing high octane passing game. He will find plenty of running room as long as Derick Anderson, Braylon, KWII and Co, prove last year was not a fluke. If the passing game continues to evolve Lewis may have even bigger numbers this year.

Also when the weather get's ugly they will feed this guy the rock over and over.

1400 Yards rushing 10 TD's

17 receptions 125 Yards 1 TD

Jamal should make a fine RB2 and can be a #1 this year and I think has a couple of years left in his tank due to his outstanding workout ethic. A value in Dynasty start up's in the late 3rd early 4th. Redraft leagues should be taking him anywhere from the late second to early 3rd as well.

Another top 7 finish is in the cards IMO. His situation is very good.

Case in point from my previous post. 1400 yards and 10 TD would virtually guarantee him a spot in the top 5 FFB RBs. Projecting that kind of production yet not willing to use a first round pick on him??? Something doesn't add up.

Why would you use a 1st when you get him as late as the 3rd?

 

[J-Rock]

Jamal is a workout warrior and playing behind a good OL and a fast developing high octane passing game. He will find plenty of running room as long as Derick Anderson, Braylon, KWII and Co, prove last year was not a fluke. If the passing game continues to evolve Lewis may have even bigger numbers this year.

Also when the weather get's ugly they will feed this guy the rock over and over.

1400 Yards rushing 10 TD's

17 receptions 125 Yards 1 TD

Jamal should make a fine RB2 and can be a #1 this year and I think has a couple of years left in his tank due to his outstanding workout ethic. A value in Dynasty start up's in the late 3rd early 4th. Redraft leagues should be taking him anywhere from the late second to early 3rd as well.

Another top 7 finish is in the cards IMO. His situation is very good.

Case in point from my previous post. 1400 yards and 10 TD would virtually guarantee him a spot in the top 5 FFB RBs. Projecting that kind of production yet not willing to use a first round pick on him??? Something doesn't add up.

Why would you use a 1st when you get him as late as the 3rd?

That is my point. Why would a guy projecting 1400 and 10 still be on the board in the 3rd? I'm not saying he won't be there. I'm saying if people actually believe he is good for those numbers he will be off the board in the first half of round 1. That kind of production vs. a late 2nd early 3rd ADP doesn't add up.

 

[gianmarco]

Jamal is a workout warrior and playing behind a good OL and a fast developing high octane passing game. He will find plenty of running room as long as Derick Anderson, Braylon, KWII and Co, prove last year was not a fluke. If the passing game continues to evolve Lewis may have even bigger numbers this year.

Also when the weather get's ugly they will feed this guy the rock over and over.

1400 Yards rushing 10 TD's

17 receptions 125 Yards 1 TD

Jamal should make a fine RB2 and can be a #1 this year and I think has a couple of years left in his tank due to his outstanding workout ethic. A value in Dynasty start up's in the late 3rd early 4th. Redraft leagues should be taking him anywhere from the late second to early 3rd as well.

Another top 7 finish is in the cards IMO. His situation is very good.

Case in point from my previous post. 1400 yards and 10 TD would virtually guarantee him a spot in the top 5 FFB RBs. Projecting that kind of production yet not willing to use a first round pick on him??? Something doesn't add up.

Why would you use a 1st when you get him as late as the 3rd?

That is my point. Why would a guy projecting 1400 and 10 still be on the board in the 3rd? I'm not saying he won't be there. I'm saying if people actually believe he is good for those numbers he will be off the board in the first half of round 1. That kind of production vs. a late 2nd early 3rd ADP doesn't add up.

Same reason that a WR projected to be around 90/1300/8 is falling into the 4th round. But, that's where Holt is going. Every year there are guys that have "mass" concerns for whatever reason (age, injury, team situation) whose ADP provides them to be taken at a considerable bargain. See Portis last year. I would bet that Jamal's ADP will continue to creep up the closer we get to the season. But, he's not as flashy as a Lynch or Turner, so he'll go lower. And people will target him and wait for him there.

 

[TheDirtyWord]

Lewis is such a difficult guy to rely on in FFB. He is the epitome of boom & bust. One week he'll go off for 200 yards and 4td and the next he have 35 yards and no td. This gets us into a strategy discussion in terms of consistency vs. big game potential but I would use Lewis as an RB3 or Flex player. His numbers at the end of the year might make him appear to be a low RB1 - high RB2 but on a week to week basis I want someone I know I can rely on (especially at RB) to put up consistent numbers.Having said all of that:1200 combined yards & 8TD.

 

[TheFanatic]

Jamal is a workout warrior and playing behind a good OL and a fast developing high octane passing game. He will find plenty of running room as long as Derick Anderson, Braylon, KWII and Co, prove last year was not a fluke. If the passing game continues to evolve Lewis may have even bigger numbers this year.

Also when the weather get's ugly they will feed this guy the rock over and over.

1400 Yards rushing 10 TD's

17 receptions 125 Yards 1 TD

Jamal should make a fine RB2 and can be a #1 this year and I think has a couple of years left in his tank due to his outstanding workout ethic. A value in Dynasty start up's in the late 3rd early 4th. Redraft leagues should be taking him anywhere from the late second to early 3rd as well.

Another top 7 finish is in the cards IMO. His situation is very good.

Case in point from my previous post. 1400 yards and 10 TD would virtually guarantee him a spot in the top 5 FFB RBs. Projecting that kind of production yet not willing to use a first round pick on him??? Something doesn't add up.

Why would you use a 1st when you get him as late as the 3rd?

That is my point. Why would a guy projecting 1400 and 10 still be on the board in the 3rd? I'm not saying he won't be there. I'm saying if people actually believe he is good for those numbers he will be off the board in the first half of round 1. That kind of production vs. a late 2nd early 3rd ADP doesn't add up.

Just because the guy was drafted outside of the 1st round doesn't mean he can't be a top tier guy. I drafted FRank Gore in the 6th round a couple of years ago. The guy was top 5 in a PPR league that year. Jamal is not the sexy pick. He never really was a sexy pick his entire career. People always wanted guys like Faulk, LT, Priest (and later LJ), Addai, etc over him. And rightfully so. This year guys will be all over DMC and Stewart before Lewis. Some will draft a guy like Turner before Lewis. What do these 3 guys have in common? None of them have been a starter in the NFL for 16 games.

Great O, Great O-Line, young QB that should only get better, likely playing with the lead more this year and playing more ball control O. 1500 yards is not that big of a leap. You realize that the year following the year he blew out his knee he had 1700 total yards on a team that had little in the way of offense outside of Jamal Lewis?

 

[fatness]

That puts him around ~RB7 or RB8, depending upon PPR, etc., and using last year's rankings That seems really high to me for him.

There's no guarantee that he repeats it, but he was RB#6 in a PPR league last year.

 

[T Bell]

That puts him around ~RB7 or RB8, depending upon PPR, etc., and using last year's rankings That seems really high to me for him.

There's no guarantee that he repeats it, but he was RB#6 in a PPR league last year.

I'm aware of that, but last year was an odd year in which the primary accomplishment of the top ranking RB's seems to have been that they stayed healthy. In other cases, like Willie Parker, the odd way that they were used (or not, at the goalline) unexpectedly killed their value. I don't know that we can count on that from Lewis, and I also don't think we can count on guys like Jackson, Gore, etc. to finish below him. I just think he drops into the RB10-12 range.

 

[Todem]

Jamal is a workout warrior and playing behind a good OL and a fast developing high octane passing game. He will find plenty of running room as long as Derick Anderson, Braylon, KWII and Co, prove last year was not a fluke. If the passing game continues to evolve Lewis may have even bigger numbers this year.

Also when the weather get's ugly they will feed this guy the rock over and over.

1400 Yards rushing 10 TD's

17 receptions 125 Yards 1 TD

Jamal should make a fine RB2 and can be a #1 this year and I think has a couple of years left in his tank due to his outstanding workout ethic. A value in Dynasty start up's in the late 3rd early 4th. Redraft leagues should be taking him anywhere from the late second to early 3rd as well.

Another top 7 finish is in the cards IMO. His situation is very good.

Case in point from my previous post. 1400 yards and 10 TD would virtually guarantee him a spot in the top 5 FFB RBs. Projecting that kind of production yet not willing to use a first round pick on him??? Something doesn't add up.

No....I rather get the value of being able to draft him later. That is the point. Most people are not projecting this so he is a value RB on my draft board.

 

[jurb26]

It really is amazing that the "shark pool" will miss the boat on Lewis for a 3rd straight year. Thats just fine with me. You guys keep spreading that nonsense of him being on the "downslope" of his career or "wearing down." I'll keep picking up a guy who has finished as RB6 last year and RB16 the year prior as well as never finishing any worse than RB25 in the 5th round and later.

320 carries, 1300 yds, 10 TDs

25 reception, 200 yds, 1 TD

 

[Coeur de Lion]

Safe, solid fantasy RB2 in standard leagues, slightly lower in PPR. Jamal isn't the player he once was, but the Browns are going to move the ball and score points this year.

295 carries for 1250 yards, 25 catches for 200 yards, 10 total TDs

 

[benbadman]

In a redraft league, where would you take Jamal Lewis compared to guys that might be lumped in his tier of RB2 with RB1 potential:

Jamal Lewis

Jones-Drew

Ryan Grant

Reggie Bush

Ronnie Brown

Laurence Maroney

for example.

Some of those guys will have solid seasons, and I think at least 2 of them maybe 3, will disappoint and put up low-end RB2 numbers. I'm not sold on Maroney & Grant as reliable rd2 picks. These are tough calls at the end of round 1 or in round 2. Do you take these guys or an elite WR (Wayne, TO, Steve Smith, Fitzgerald, Braylon Edwards--- assuming Moss goes in Round1 of course)...

When I look at this clump of 6 RBs, I think preseason injuries (to their lineman or other weapons on their team), schedule outlook, and somewhat how they perform in camp will be the deciding factor.

 

[jurb26]

In a redraft league, where would you take Jamal Lewis compared to guys that might be lumped in his tier of RB2 with RB1 potential:Jamal LewisJones-DrewRyan GrantReggie BushRonnie BrownLaurence Maroney

The beauty of it is you never seem to have to make this decision. All of the guys you have listed along with Lewis will likley go a full round ahead of him. Some guys 2 rounds. So, what I have done the past few years is take the risky guy I really like, last year it was Portis, and then pick up Lewis as a sort of handcuff.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

In a redraft league, where would you take Jamal Lewis compared to guys that might be lumped in his tier of RB2 with RB1 potential:Jamal LewisJones-DrewRyan GrantReggie BushRonnie BrownLaurence Maroney

The beauty of it is you never seem to have to make this decision. All of the guys you have listed along with Lewis will likley go a full round ahead of him. Some guys 2 rounds. So, what I have done the past few years is take the risky guy I really like, last year it was Portis, and then pick up Lewis as a sort of handcuff.

I doubt that he'll fall that far this year. I'll be absolutely shocked if I see him falling past the early 3rd (25ish overall) when all is said and done in redraft leagues this year. He'll still likely represent value this year, but not as much as he did last year.

 

[jurb26]

In a redraft league, where would you take Jamal Lewis compared to guys that might be lumped in his tier of RB2 with RB1 potential:Jamal LewisJones-DrewRyan GrantReggie BushRonnie BrownLaurence Maroney

The beauty of it is you never seem to have to make this decision. All of the guys you have listed along with Lewis will likley go a full round ahead of him. Some guys 2 rounds. So, what I have done the past few years is take the risky guy I really like, last year it was Portis, and then pick up Lewis as a sort of handcuff.

I doubt that he'll fall that far this year. I'll be absolutely shocked if I see him falling past the early 3rd (25ish overall) when all is said and done in redraft leagues this year. He'll still likely represent value this year, but not as much as he did last year.

I guess we'll see. There still seems to be an awful high amount of negativity circling Lewis. We don't have any reliable APDs just yet, but I'll be keeping a very keen eye on Jamal's once again.

 

[gianmarco]

I got him as the #21 RB in a startup dynasty (BBIII) at the #32 overall pick and caught quite a bit of flack for it.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

I got him as the #21 RB in a startup dynasty (BBIII) at the #32 overall pick and caught quite a bit of flack for it.

I think that he'll go significantly higher in non-PPR redrafts.

 

[icecat4270]

I think Lewis will have a very slight decline from last year due to age but it won't be anything significant. I think the O-Line should be at least as good as last year and the passing attack still plenty good enough to keep defenses honest.

I have him at

287-1180-7

29-211-1

That would currently put him at number 10 for me but in a very tight group from #7 to #16.

 

[fatness]

I got him as the #21 RB in a startup dynasty (BBIII) at the #32 overall pick and caught quite a bit of flack for it.

I got him as RB#21 in a startup dynasty PPR league, at the #52 pick. I wasn't surprised he was still there. People overlook him.

 

[LHUCKS]

I'm down on Lewis this year for a lot of the reasons that Big Love mentioned above. I see some regression from his stats last year as well as the entire Cleveland offense.280 carries for 1,060 yards, 7 TDs, 24 receptions for 200 yards and 1 TD174 FP using FBG scoring198 FP in PPR leagues

 

[rzrback77]

Over and over, RBs are discussed as to when the wheels fall off. Is it upon reaching 30? Is it the total number of carries? Fantasy drafters tend to shy away from perceived older RBs and the value for them increases. I think that the growth of dynasty leagues even expands the lack of appeal for the older RBs. Cleveland made great strides last year and Lewis was a surprise. He finished as the 6th RB in FBG scoring. Well, the Browns on paper look to be improved overall in 08, the OL has last year to build on, and possibly missing the playoffs provides extra incentive for the entire team. I like Jamal Lewis to improve his numbers in 08. Did you realize that even with finishing sixth overall, he missed one game and had only one carry in another?

320 carries 1408 yards 4.4 ypc 35 receptions 308 yards 8.8 ypc and 12 total TDs

 

[RoyDubb]

Over and over, RBs are discussed as to when the wheels fall off. Is it upon reaching 30? Is it the total number of carries? Fantasy drafters tend to shy away from perceived older RBs and the value for them increases. I think that the growth of dynasty leagues even expands the lack of appeal for the older RBs. Cleveland made great strides last year and Lewis was a surprise. He finished as the 6th RB in FBG scoring. Well, the Browns on paper look to be improved overall in 08, the OL has last year to build on, and possibly missing the playoffs provides extra incentive for the entire team. I like Jamal Lewis to improve his numbers in 08. Did you realize that even with finishing sixth overall, he missed one game and had only one carry in another?320 carries 1408 yards 4.4 ypc 35 receptions 308 yards 8.8 ypc and 12 total TDs

this was your projection for Peterson.Peterson 270 carries 1247 yards 4.6 ypc 30 receptions 270 yards 9.0 ypc and 11 total TDs do you really believe Jamal will outdo Peterson this year?

 

[TheFanatic]

Over and over, RBs are discussed as to when the wheels fall off. Is it upon reaching 30? Is it the total number of carries? Fantasy drafters tend to shy away from perceived older RBs and the value for them increases. I think that the growth of dynasty leagues even expands the lack of appeal for the older RBs. Cleveland made great strides last year and Lewis was a surprise. He finished as the 6th RB in FBG scoring. Well, the Browns on paper look to be improved overall in 08, the OL has last year to build on, and possibly missing the playoffs provides extra incentive for the entire team. I like Jamal Lewis to improve his numbers in 08. Did you realize that even with finishing sixth overall, he missed one game and had only one carry in another?320 carries 1408 yards 4.4 ypc 35 receptions 308 yards 8.8 ypc and 12 total TDs

this was your projection for Peterson.Peterson 270 carries 1247 yards 4.6 ypc 30 receptions 270 yards 9.0 ypc and 11 total TDs do you really believe Jamal will outdo Peterson this year?

It could happen. It's not likely but it could happen....

 

[RoyDubb]

Over and over, RBs are discussed as to when the wheels fall off. Is it upon reaching 30? Is it the total number of carries? Fantasy drafters tend to shy away from perceived older RBs and the value for them increases. I think that the growth of dynasty leagues even expands the lack of appeal for the older RBs. Cleveland made great strides last year and Lewis was a surprise. He finished as the 6th RB in FBG scoring. Well, the Browns on paper look to be improved overall in 08, the OL has last year to build on, and possibly missing the playoffs provides extra incentive for the entire team. I like Jamal Lewis to improve his numbers in 08. Did you realize that even with finishing sixth overall, he missed one game and had only one carry in another?320 carries 1408 yards 4.4 ypc 35 receptions 308 yards 8.8 ypc and 12 total TDs

this was your projection for Peterson.Peterson 270 carries 1247 yards 4.6 ypc 30 receptions 270 yards 9.0 ypc and 11 total TDs do you really believe Jamal will outdo Peterson this year?

It could happen. It's not likely but it could happen....

you're right, anything can happen. Spurs may come back and win the series, but I aint betting on it, just like Jamal outdoing Peterson. HIGHLY UNLIKELY imo.

 

[jurb26]

Over and over, RBs are discussed as to when the wheels fall off. Is it upon reaching 30? Is it the total number of carries? Fantasy drafters tend to shy away from perceived older RBs and the value for them increases. I think that the growth of dynasty leagues even expands the lack of appeal for the older RBs. Cleveland made great strides last year and Lewis was a surprise. He finished as the 6th RB in FBG scoring. Well, the Browns on paper look to be improved overall in 08, the OL has last year to build on, and possibly missing the playoffs provides extra incentive for the entire team. I like Jamal Lewis to improve his numbers in 08. Did you realize that even with finishing sixth overall, he missed one game and had only one carry in another?320 carries 1408 yards 4.4 ypc 35 receptions 308 yards 8.8 ypc and 12 total TDs

this was your projection for Peterson.Peterson 270 carries 1247 yards 4.6 ypc 30 receptions 270 yards 9.0 ypc and 11 total TDs do you really believe Jamal will outdo Peterson this year?

It could happen. It's not likely but it could happen....

you're right, anything can happen. Spurs may come back and win the series, but I aint betting on it, just like Jamal outdoing Peterson. HIGHLY UNLIKELY imo.

I would give it even money that Lewis out performs Peterson. I know that is a minority view, but Jamal is certain to see 300+ carries unless he gets hurt. He is also in a great offense, like Peterson. My projections have these guys neck and neck right now. To say it is highly unlikely that Jamal outperforms Peterson is a large exaggeration IMO.

 

[wraith5]

Over and over, RBs are discussed as to when the wheels fall off. Is it upon reaching 30? Is it the total number of carries? Fantasy drafters tend to shy away from perceived older RBs and the value for them increases. I think that the growth of dynasty leagues even expands the lack of appeal for the older RBs. Cleveland made great strides last year and Lewis was a surprise. He finished as the 6th RB in FBG scoring. Well, the Browns on paper look to be improved overall in 08, the OL has last year to build on, and possibly missing the playoffs provides extra incentive for the entire team. I like Jamal Lewis to improve his numbers in 08. Did you realize that even with finishing sixth overall, he missed one game and had only one carry in another?320 carries 1408 yards 4.4 ypc 35 receptions 308 yards 8.8 ypc and 12 total TDs

this was your projection for Peterson.Peterson 270 carries 1247 yards 4.6 ypc 30 receptions 270 yards 9.0 ypc and 11 total TDs do you really believe Jamal will outdo Peterson this year?

It could happen. It's not likely but it could happen....

My predictions aren't that high for Lewis, but IMO the difference maker would be Chester Taylor, who's good for 10 touches a game in MN. Lewis doesn't share the backfield with anybody.

 

[Verbal Kint]

So I've boiled it down to this: Assuming Jamal's got another year left in the tank, which there's no indication based on his strong finish last year to the contrary, the issue is can this offense on the rise make the transition from a 2007 schedule that was very soft against the run to a 2008 schedule that appears to be extremely hard against the run. Use his 07 stats and adjust based on your answer to this question. I personally think the offense is due for a pullback, but as many have said, things change pretty fast in this league. What looks like a tough schedule may not be.