Player Spotlight: Jerricho Cotchery (1 Viewer)

[Jason Wood]

2008 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. Last year, we published more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters. This year will be no different.

Each week we will post a list of players to be discussed. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discussion expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Jerricho Cotchery, WR, New York Jets

Player Page Link: Jerricho Cotchery Player Page

Each article will include:

Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads
FBG Projections
Consensus Member ProjectionsThe Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

Focus commentary on the player in question, and your expectations for said player
Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
To be included in the final synopsis and consensus outlook, you MUST provide projections for the playerProjections should include (at a minimum):

For QBs: Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDsNow let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

 

[travdogg]

Cotch is a solid WR3 who can even serve as a a decent WR2 in PPR leagues. I'm assuming Clemens will beat out Pennington and Coles will be healthy on the other side: 80-1100-6

 

[bcr8f]

I was amazed to see what people were paying for Cotchery in dynasty leagues as a RFA.

 

[The Man with the Plan]

Jerricho Cotchery had 2 games with over 150 yards receiving last season (Week 2 @ Baltimore 165 yards, Week 16 @ Tennessee 152 yards). It seems like no matter if the QB is Chad Pennington or Kellen Clemens, Cotchery will be able to perform. If the offensive line improves as expected that can only help Cotchery's numbers. He's an underrated player.

 

[Cookiemonster]

Jerricho Cotchery had 2 games with over 150 yards receiving last season (Week 2 @ Baltimore 165 yards, Week 16 @ Tennessee 152 yards). It seems like no matter if the QB is Chad Pennington or Kellen Clemens, Cotchery will be able to perform. If the offensive line improves as expected that can only help Cotchery's numbers. He's an underrated player.

That's why I've had him since our initial draft in '06 and haven't tried to move him. Nobody would value him as much as the guy who has repeatedly turned to him when you need a WR to produce. He hasn't always been a starter for me and moved further down my depth chart this year, but he's not going anywhere... unless he gets 1200 and 10 or more TDs, then he can replace a starter for good.

 

[LBH]

love Cotchery. I think hes still getting better. The offense should see a boost in stability with a revamped OL. I think Clemens or Pennington are good enough to get Cotch the ball as long as they have a little time in the pocket

85 1050 7

 

[by_the_sea_wannabe]

85 1080 4

 

[m_sell31]

85 1080 4

80 1040 5

 

[Ministry of Pain]

The guy has posted back to back 82 catch seasons with a pretty up and down QB situation. The Jets defense is still awful so i like NY to play catch up and that means good things for Cotchery. I like him to post great numbers this season.

96 catches 1,250 yds 6 TD

That may be a little high but I see the floor as somewhere in the 72-80 range as long as he is healthy. PPR leagues he is money.

 

[Carter_Can_Fly]

One of the most underrated WR's in the NFL and fantasy.

88 receptions

1200 yards

5-7 TD's

 

[Jon_Moore]

Cotchery is a great blend of speed and route running ability.

The Quarterback play is going to affect his numbers to a good degree I believe.

In 2006, on 82 catches, he got 11.7 yards per reception withi Pennington at the Helm

I broke it down by games in which each qb threw the majority of the passes.

In games where Clemens was the primary passer, Cotchery's average yard per catch per average was 16.2

In games where Pennington passed the most, it was 11.4.

That's just under 5 more yards per reception if Clemens is passing.

Basically, Pennington doesn't have the arm strength for Cotchery to maximize his talent

If Clemens is finally the full-time starter, I would expect an uptick in yards per reception, and in big play tds, as Clemens can actually throw behind the defense

88 receptions

14.4 yards per reception

1267

7 Tds

 

[rzrback77]

I really like the abilities of both Cotchery and Coles, but I will not be surprised to see the JETS focus a little more on the running game in 08. Almost every prediction in this thread is for Cotchery to see increases after back to back 80 catch seasons. I think its more likely a slight downturn for Cotchery. Only reason for this I expecy to see an increase in rushing attempts and possibly more chances for Coles who missed several games in 07.

Cotchery 70 catches 805 yards 11.5 ypc and 5 TDs

 

[Brewzers]

Cotchery is a great blend of speed and route running ability.The Quarterback play is going to affect his numbers to a good degree I believe.In 2007, on 82 catches, he got 11.7 yards per reception withi Pennington at the HelmI broke it down by games in which each qb threw the majority of the passes.In games where Clemens was the primary passer, Cotchery's average yard per catch per average was 16.2In games where Pennington passed the most, it was 11.4.That's just under 5 more yards per reception if Clemens is passing.Basically, Pennington doesn't have the arm strength for Cotchery to maximize his talentIf Clemens is finally the full-time starter, I would expect an uptick in yards per reception, and in big play tds, as Clemens can actually throw behind the defense88 receptions14.4 yards per reception12677 Tds

This is insightful. 350 yards or 35 pts less with Pennington. Go Kellen!

 

[Anonymous Internet User]

85 1080 4

80 1040 5

not even close guys!82.5 1060 4.5

 

[Iwannabeacowboybaby!]

His value in PPR leagues should be noted, a guy who gets a pretty significant amount of receptions but isn't a big TD guy. He's a solid guy to throw into your lineup, he won't win your league but he'll add to a solid lineup and should be more of the same for Cotchery.

85 receptions for 1090 yards and 4 td's

 

[Chase Stuart]

The guy has posted back to back 82 catch seasons with a pretty up and down QB situation. The Jets defense is still awful so i like NY to play catch up and that means good things for Cotchery.

The Jets defense was pretty average last year. Then they added Calvin Pace, Vernon Gholston, Kris Jenkins, David Harris for an extra 7 games, and Dwight Lowery. I think the Jets defense projects in the top ten pretty conservatively, and has top five potential.

 

[Jeff Tefertiller]

The guy has posted back to back 82 catch seasons with a pretty up and down QB situation. The Jets defense is still awful so i like NY to play catch up and that means good things for Cotchery.

The Jets defense was pretty average last year. Then they added Calvin Pace, Vernon Gholston, Kris Jenkins, David Harris for an extra 7 games, and Dwight Lowery. I think the Jets defense projects in the top ten pretty conservatively, and has top five potential.

 

[brednbuddah]

love Cotchery. I think hes still getting better. The offense should see a boost in stability with a revamped OL. I think Clemens or Pennington are good enough to get Cotch the ball as long as they have a little time in the pocket

85 1050 7

I don't know what their pass blocking is going to be like compared to last year, but in Clemens' first start was Cotch's first 150 yd game. don't forget Mangini brought in Callahan to be the asst coach/Oline guy. The guy is a gamer and will be a consistent fantasy WR as long as Coles stays healthy (???) and TJ keeps Ds honest.around 80 rec , 1000 yds. close to 10 tds.

he will be a huge pickup in redrafts.

 

[Jon_Moore]

love Cotchery. I think hes still getting better. The offense should see a boost in stability with a revamped OL. I think Clemens or Pennington are good enough to get Cotch the ball as long as they have a little time in the pocket

85 1050 7

I don't know what their pass blocking is going to be like compared to last year, but in Clemens' first start was Cotch's first 150 yd game. don't forget Mangini brought in Callahan to be the asst coach/Oline guy. The guy is a gamer and will be a consistent fantasy WR as long as Coles stays healthy (???) and TJ keeps Ds honest.around 80 rec , 1000 yds. close to 10 tds.

he will be a huge pickup in redrafts.

Fewer Catches, fewer yards, AND 8 more tds? It's not at all impossible, but...

 

[pjconley]

Cotchery has been a consistent possession receiver since he got the starting job in 2006 (He caught exactly 82 passes in both his starting years). He dosen't have blazing speed, but he does have the ability to take break a long TD (as seen in 2006 vs the Patriots during what I consider one of the best catches of that year.).

For 2008, I expect his touchdown numbers to go up. With the new additions on the offensive line in Alan Faneca and Damien Woody, the quarterback will have more time in the pocket giving the the receivers plenty of time to get open.

I'm hoping for:

92 catches, 1225 yards, avg 13.6 yards per catch, 9 tds.

(For those pulling for Kellen thinking he's the better start over Chad, remember this...

Chad Pennington= 86.1 passer rating, avg 6.79 yds a pass

Kellen Clemens= 60.9 passer rating, avg 6.12 yds a pass)

 

[LBH]

love Cotchery. I think hes still getting better. The offense should see a boost in stability with a revamped OL. I think Clemens or Pennington are good enough to get Cotch the ball as long as they have a little time in the pocket

85 1050 7

I don't know what their pass blocking is going to be like compared to last year, but in Clemens' first start was Cotch's first 150 yd game. don't forget Mangini brought in Callahan to be the asst coach/Oline guy. The guy is a gamer and will be a consistent fantasy WR as long as Coles stays healthy (???) and TJ keeps Ds honest.around 80 rec , 1000 yds. close to 10 tds.

he will be a huge pickup in redrafts.

I hope youre right, but I think Keller is going to be a major player for the Jets in the RZ this season and expect him to takes targets and TDs there from the WRs.

 

[Jon_Moore]

Cotchery has been a consistent possession receiver since he got the starting job in 2006 (He caught exactly 82 passes in both his starting years). He dosen't have blazing speed, but he does have the ability to take break a long TD (as seen in 2006 vs the Patriots during what I consider one of the best catches of that year.).For 2008, I expect his touchdown numbers to go up. With the new additions on the offensive line in Alan Faneca and Damien Woody, the quarterback will have more time in the pocket giving the the receivers plenty of time to get open. I'm hoping for:92 catches, 1225 yards, avg 13.6 yards per catch, 9 tds.(For those pulling for Kellen thinking he's the better start over Chad, remember this...Chad Pennington= 86.1 passer rating, avg 6.79 yds a passKellen Clemens= 60.9 passer rating, avg 6.12 yds a pass)

Without looking, Pennington probably had a higher completion percentage, seems like Clemens was low. maybe even more wins as well, but consider the experience in the NFL, and the Jets offense...Clemens was pretty raw.

 

[brednbuddah]

love Cotchery. I think hes still getting better. The offense should see a boost in stability with a revamped OL. I think Clemens or Pennington are good enough to get Cotch the ball as long as they have a little time in the pocket

85 1050 7

I don't know what their pass blocking is going to be like compared to last year, but in Clemens' first start was Cotch's first 150 yd game. don't forget Mangini brought in Callahan to be the asst coach/Oline guy. The guy is a gamer and will be a consistent fantasy WR as long as Coles stays healthy (???) and TJ keeps Ds honest.around 80 rec , 1000 yds. close to 10 tds.

he will be a huge pickup in redrafts.

I hope youre right, but I think Keller is going to be a major player for the Jets in the RZ this season and expect him to takes targets and TDs there from the WRs.

I was actually thinking Cotch would be the guy with the majority of RZ targets, but yea, you bring up a good point. A lot of people think Keller is going to come in and hit the ground running. I see him being more of a spot contributor and taking some heat off Coles and Cotch at least for this season. maybe he becomes more involved towards the end of the season.

 

[Jason Wood]

The guy has posted back to back 82 catch seasons with a pretty up and down QB situation. The Jets defense is still awful so i like NY to play catch up and that means good things for Cotchery.

The Jets defense was pretty average last year. Then they added Calvin Pace, Vernon Gholston, Kris Jenkins, David Harris for an extra 7 games, and Dwight Lowery. I think the Jets defense projects in the top ten pretty conservatively, and has top five potential.

Chase, my brother. Are you kidding me? LOL...potential top 5? C'mon pal.

 

[Chase Stuart]

The guy has posted back to back 82 catch seasons with a pretty up and down QB situation. The Jets defense is still awful so i like NY to play catch up and that means good things for Cotchery.

The Jets defense was pretty average last year. Then they added Calvin Pace, Vernon Gholston, Kris Jenkins, David Harris for an extra 7 games, and Dwight Lowery. I think the Jets defense projects in the top ten pretty conservatively, and has top five potential.

Chase, my brother. Are you kidding me? LOL...potential top 5? C'mon pal.

Yes, I was kidding, because average defenses that add a bunch of play makers in the off-season never become top five the next year.

 

[Jason Wood]

The guy has posted back to back 82 catch seasons with a pretty up and down QB situation. The Jets defense is still awful so i like NY to play catch up and that means good things for Cotchery.

The Jets defense was pretty average last year. Then they added Calvin Pace, Vernon Gholston, Kris Jenkins, David Harris for an extra 7 games, and Dwight Lowery. I think the Jets defense projects in the top ten pretty conservatively, and has top five potential.

Chase, my brother. Are you kidding me? LOL...potential top 5? C'mon pal.

Yes, I was kidding, because average defenses that add a bunch of play makers in the off-season never become top five the next year.

Let's keep in mind you were forecasting a Super Bowl for the Jets last year

 

[silentmark]

What now with Farve? Who benefits more, Coles or Cotch ?

80-90 rec

1100-1300 yds

6-9 tds

 

[thehornet]

90-1170-8

 

[ltaylor]

After watching Favre's chemistry with Cotchery last night, I think Cotchery could produce borderline WR1 numbers this year in PPR leagues. Favre looked at him in his first play as a Jet. Which to me is telling; Favre wanted to complete his first pass and IMO found the guy he has the most confidence in. Additionally, he looked to Cotchery for the crucial 3rd down completion. I am bumping him up to #12 WR in PPR.

89 Receptions

1225 Yards

7 TDs

This equates to 243 points in PPR leagues, and IMO is not a very big stretch at all considering what he has done with a noodle armed QB the last two years

 

[Ripleys]

 

[Deuce'sWild]

I like Cotchery, but just don't know who will benefit more since Favre is new to the system.

I will take whoever isn't already taken from Coles/Cotchery and be happy with the value.

Last night Coles went in the 5th and Cotchery in the 7th....guess who got him.

 

[Mystery Achiever]

After watching Favre's chemistry with Cotchery last night, I think Cotchery could produce borderline WR1 numbers this year in PPR leagues. Favre looked at him in his first play as a Jet. Which to me is telling; Favre wanted to complete his first pass and IMO found the guy he has the most confidence in. Additionally, he looked to Cotchery for the crucial 3rd down completion. I am bumping him up to #12 WR in PPR.

He may well have a great season. But Cotchery was the only starter playing, so is this really telling?

 

[Monsters of the Midway]

I think that is a miracle that he caught 82 for 1130 last year playing behind that mess of an OL for those QBs. The low TD total looks like a fluke to me. Last year's somewhat limited sample shows that he will benefit from playing with a strong armed QB. He averaged 17.2 y/c with Kellen Clemens throwing him the ball. The upgrade to Favre-and the improvement in the OL from Faneca and improvements from Mangold & Ferguson-could give him some awfully nice numbers.

Last year he had 82/1140/2. I'll throw those improvements that I see, add a dash of Favre's uncertainty in the offense and not knowing if he'll like Cotchery or Coles more and come back with

90/1200/9

Similar catches and yards, uptick in TDs as the offense improves overall. Honestly that looks conservative to me.

 

[Patoons]

After watching Favre's chemistry with Cotchery last night, I think Cotchery could produce borderline WR1 numbers this year in PPR leagues. Favre looked at him in his first play as a Jet. Which to me is telling; Favre wanted to complete his first pass and IMO found the guy he has the most confidence in. Additionally, he looked to Cotchery for the crucial 3rd down completion. I am bumping him up to #12 WR in PPR.

He may well have a great season. But Cotchery was the only starter playing, so is this really telling?

Reports out of camp are that it looks like Cotchery and Favre have been playing together for years... they're just on the same page already.

 

[packersfan]

I think that is a miracle that he caught 82 for 1130 last year playing behind that mess of an OL for those QBs. The low TD total looks like a fluke to me. Last year's somewhat limited sample shows that he will benefit from playing with a strong armed QB. He averaged 17.2 y/c with Kellen Clemens throwing him the ball. The upgrade to Favre-and the improvement in the OL from Faneca and improvements from Mangold & Ferguson-could give him some awfully nice numbers.Last year he had 82/1140/2. I'll throw those improvements that I see, add a dash of Favre's uncertainty in the offense and not knowing if he'll like Cotchery or Coles more and come back with90/1200/9Similar catches and yards, uptick in TDs as the offense improves overall. Honestly that looks conservative to me.

I agree. And don't forget, he caught 82 passes last season despite missing a game. Back-to-back 82-reception seasons and now he gets a gigantic upgrade at QB. I'm fighting to temper my enthusiasm for Cotchery because I think he could blow up in a huge way this season. I could see him finish with 90+ receptions, over 1,200 yards and at least 5 TDs. That's similar to the numbers Bobby Engram put up last season in Seattle and he ranked 15th in standard scoring leagues. I could easily see Cotchery finishing in that range this year. A bigger year in terms of TDs - like Jennings had last season for Green Bay - and you're talking about WR1 territory.

 

[Mystery Achiever]

Reports out of camp are that it looks like Cotchery and Favre have been playing together for years... they're just on the same page already.

I just wanted to make sure people who didn't see the game knew that he wasn't choosing between Coles and Cotchery. He did stand near Coles on the sidelines more than Cotchery. Adjust your rankings accordingly.

 

[Gbagzz]

Reports out of camp are that it looks like Cotchery and Favre have been playing together for years... they're just on the same page already.

I just wanted to make sure people who didn't see the game knew that he wasn't choosing between Coles and Cotchery. He did stand near Coles on the sidelines more than Cotchery. Adjust your rankings accordingly.

You're joking right? You're going to rank Coles higher b/c Favre stood next to him on the sideline?

 

[ltaylor]

I think that is a miracle that he caught 82 for 1130 last year playing behind that mess of an OL for those QBs. The low TD total looks like a fluke to me. Last year's somewhat limited sample shows that he will benefit from playing with a strong armed QB. He averaged 17.2 y/c with Kellen Clemens throwing him the ball. The upgrade to Favre-and the improvement in the OL from Faneca and improvements from Mangold & Ferguson-could give him some awfully nice numbers.Last year he had 82/1140/2. I'll throw those improvements that I see, add a dash of Favre's uncertainty in the offense and not knowing if he'll like Cotchery or Coles more and come back with90/1200/9Similar catches and yards, uptick in TDs as the offense improves overall. Honestly that looks conservative to me.

It's conservative to me as well. I am amazed that more of the experts havent adjucted their projections up a bit more. IMO he is solidly in the top 12-16 WRs in PPR leagues, yet most still have him in the 20-24 range..............

 

[omally]

Reports out of camp are that it looks like Cotchery and Favre have been playing together for years... they're just on the same page already.

I just wanted to make sure people who didn't see the game knew that he wasn't choosing between Coles and Cotchery. He did stand near Coles on the sidelines more than Cotchery. Adjust your rankings accordingly.

You're joking right? You're going to rank Coles higher b/c Favre stood next to him on the sideline?

It's pretty obvious that she is joking.

 

[Mystery Achiever]

He did stand near Coles on the sidelines more than Cotchery. Adjust your rankings accordingly.

You're joking right? You're going to rank Coles higher b/c Favre stood next to him on the sideline?

It's pretty obvious that she is joking.

 

[Addai's Adidas]

I hope to get Cotchery at 35 overall as my WR2.

 

[Tom Baker]

Greg Jennings had 920 and 12 in 13 games played last year, which comes to around 164 fantasy points in my league. I'd say that's Cotchery's bottom, assuming he stays healthy. Upside is around 180 fantasy points, which puts him firmly in the top-ten.

 

[packersfan]

Favre and Cotchery In Sync

 

[ltaylor]

Favre and Cotchery In Sync

Thanks for the link! Great article..............I am even more convinced on Cotchery now and this article gives credence to the significance that I mentioned earlier in this thread of Favre looking to Jericho with his first pass as a JET. Whoever says you can't learn things for FF by watching pre-season games are dead wrong. You have to use you eyes and instincts and trust what you see.In the last couple of days of preseason I have learned a two huge things by watching the games intently:

1. Cotchery will be a beast this year

2. W. Dunn will get atleast 175 total touches this season

 

[AnonymousBob]

Bump

 

[Max Power]

4 Recptions on 9 targets through 2 games?

I think all that top 10WR upside went to my head. I'm worried. Favre just spreads the ball around too much for Cotchery to be a #1 FF WR.

Also we have to remember that the Jets are not the Packers. Favre was throwing an average of almost 35 passes a game for the Pack (Week 17 stats excluded because he only played a quarter)

For the Jets he is averaging only 24 attemps per game.

Just throwing it out there, but Cotchery is on pace to have less targets this season than Recpetions in 07.

 

[Buck Bradcanon]

I am legitimately concerned and was hoping last years receptions and yardage were his floor with a few more TDs mixed in. SD should provide a nice litmus test. Hopefully he can put up about 1/4 of what Barndon Marshall did last week to that squad.

 

[xenon]

Time to jump ship?

 

[cubbie5150]

Time to jump ship?

I've got several trade offers out there w/ Cotchery included as a player I am trying to unload. So far, no one seems interested, and it's hard to blame them. I also thought Cotch would be a solid WR2-type, borderline WR1...he was actually drafted by me to be WR3 (behind Marshall & Holmes), but w/ Santonio also looking sketchy, I am trying to upgrade at WR even if it means moving both Santonio & Cotch in the same deal. I'll ride w/ Roddy White/Vincent Jackson as WR3 IF I can get a legit WR2/borderline WR1. I know it's early, but the NYJ playcalling PLUS Favre's known propensity to spread the ball really worries me.

 

[Urinal Mint]

I think he's a buy-low candidate right now. The guy obviously can play well with Favre. What's missing are the opportunities. Mangini, et. al. have been stupid (IMO) not to turn Favre a little more loose with his arm. The offense (watched them both weeks) has been bland and ultra-conservative. Plus I think Favre is still somewhere in the middle of the learning curve for the offensive scheme.

Still, I think losing games like they did on Sunday to New England may move the offensive minds on that staff to let go of the reins a bit and let their golden boy sling it around.