Player Spotlight: Jon Kitna (1 Viewer)

[Jason Wood]

2007 Player Spotlight Series

Over the course of the offseason, we will be evaluating a multitude of players at every fantasy position. One such way we go about that is through the Player Spotlight series. Think of the Spotlights as a permanent record on some of the more intriguing players for the upcoming season. Each Spotlight will be featured in an article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Jon Kitna, QB, Detroit Lions

Player Page Link: Jon Kitna Player Page

Each article will include:

Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads
FBG Projections
Consensus Member ProjectionsThe Rules

In order for this thread to provide sustainable value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

Focus commentary on the player in question, and your expectations for said player
Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
To be included in the final synopsis and consensus outlook, you MUST provide projections for the playerProjections should include (at a minimum):

For QBs: Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDsBest of Luck and ENJOY!

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Lock for 4,000 yds and 20-24+ TD...what else did you want to know?

 

[BigSteelThrill]

League leader in attempts.

final #s... just a touch better then last year...

4350 yards. (+140)

25 TDs. (+4)

18 Ints. (-3)

64%. (+1.5)

120 rush (-30)

3 TDs (+1)

... and with an even higher ceiling if everything "clicks".

 

[Chase Stuart]

In general, there are two types of QBs that are overrated:

1) QBs on teams that throw a lot of passes

2) QBs that take close to 100% of their team's passes

Why is that? If you don't miss games due to injury, and your team throws the ball a lot, you're pretty much guaranteed to pass for a ton of yards. Well, unless you're John Kitna, 2001.

Jon Kitna was the 6th best fantasy QB last year. That's misleading, because he played every game. Going by team QBs, Detroit TM QB ranked 8th overall. Dallas and Philadelphia both scored more FPs than Detroit QBs last year.

In terms of fantasy points derived from the passing game, Det QBs ranked 7th (moving ahead of Atlanta, obviously). But Detroit QBs ranked 21st (behind Atlanta, as well) in passing fantasy points per pass attempt.

Now you might say, who cares where a team ranks in passing fantasy points per pass attempt. And there's some merit to that. But team passing attempts doesn't correlate very well from year to year. And that's important to know. So seeing a 6 next to Jon Kitna's name last year is probably less useful than seeing a 21 next to his name. (And before someone asks: Indy, Phi, NO, Cin -- the teams at the top of the TM QB FP list, were also at the very top of the passing fantasy points per attempt list. So I don't think a successful argument in defense of Detroit's low PFP/att rank is that Detroit had lots of attempts.)

At this point, you can feel free to upgrade Kitna because you think:

1) the 2007 Lions will pass the ball more -- and maybe a lot more -- often than the league average team.

2) the 2007 Lions have a better supporting cast than the 2006 version, mostly thanks to Calvin Johnson.

3) any Kitna related reason to move him up (I think Kitna will do a better job QBing this year than last, where he threw more INTs than TDs).

4) any other reason related to the 2007 Lions.

 

[BigSteelThrill]

I think you are reading way too much into that.

But... can you extrapolate on the Mike Martz offenses and its passing #s historically?

Dont care so much about Kitna and Detroit. Its more about Martz with weapons.

 

[turkishkamel]

bad defense will mean a lot of passes this year. the line has to get better for kitna to improve his numbers from last year. lots of 4 WR sets puts more pressure on the line. kitna is also prone to late games turnovers for numerous reasons, so i dont see his picks/fumbles dropping much. a few more touchdowns, few more yards.

4350 yds

24 tds

22 ints

 

[BLOX]

His numbers are in my sig.

 

[KellysHeroes]

His Offensive #s are nice.. 4200+ w/ 21 TDs w/ 2 Rushing

However his 22 INTs, 11 Fumbles w/ 9 Lost, 63 sacks for 388 yds is the worst and my league hits you for all those catergories, Making Kitna last yr QB 14

 

[shadyridr]

Little doubt in my mind that he will be top 5 this year and perhaps even top 3. Horrible defensive team, passing minded coach, average at RB in Tatum Bell, 3 great WRs in Roy, Calvin, and Furrey. And plus hes not injury prone. He will be a stud this year in leagues that dont penalize for turnovers like mine.

4300 pass yds, 24 tds, 16 ints

 

[Iwannabeacowboybaby!]

J. Kitna will have another solid fantasy year. He has nobody to worry about taking his job this year. The Lions drafted an outstanding WR which will only help Kitna get a few more big plays. The Lions did not help themselves out on defense, which will force the Lions to throw the ball a lot. Mike Martz is still with the Lions.

All these facts will lead to:

4100 yards passing, 25 td's and 19 INT's

100 yards rushing

 

[LBH]

Kitna will be a top 5 qb imo...

4300yds 30tds 22ints

 

[KellysHeroes]

Kitna will be a top 5 qb imo...4300yds 30tds 22ints

Not in our league LBH, within the top 10 Maybe, but not top 5-2 INTs w/ addational -1 on the 2nd, addaitional -2 if INT is returned for TD, -.5 per sack w/ addational -1 on the 4th, -.1 per sacked yd w/ addational -1 on the 20th yd, -1 Fumble w/ addational -1 on the 2nd, -1 on Fum Lost w/ addational -1 on the 2nd.Sorry but I don't see those Turnovers and Sack #s going down much.

 

[GroveDiesel]

With a healthy Kevin Jones I think he's easily top 5.

Without him I think he's somewhere in that middle tier.

Kevin Jones was a great option last year as a pass catching RB and makes a big difference in that offense IMO. In 12 games Jones had 61 receptions for for 520 yards and 2 TDs. Tatum Bell won't have production like that.

So this one is a tough one to call right now. Obviously the addition of Calvin Johnson is an upgrade at WR though.

 

[LBH]

Kitna will be a top 5 qb imo...4300yds 30tds 22ints

Not in our league LBH, within the top 10 Maybe, but not top 5

we'll see. i like his chances.

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

How much of a risk is there that Stanton will get the call late in the season if the Lions are mathematically eliminated from the playoffs?

 

[WhoDat]

The Lions did very little to address their defensive problems. Yes, they drafted some players that should or could pan out over the next 2 seasons but the team did not leave this year's draft with a player or players that could make an immediate impact, opinion. For an example, see E. Sims last year. The Lions, as usual, will be playing from behind early and often.

This is the second year in Martz's offense with upgrades at WR positions and the offensive line. (You could argue the moves made to address OL but that is another conversation.) The team also added Bell & Duckett as insurance for K. Jones. There will be at least 8 games, if not more, were the Lions are going to struggle to run the football. Apologies to Bell & Duckett, but I have seen that movie a few times and it is not that good. However...

The Lions did get the perceived QB of the future, D. Stanton. What does this all mean?

There are going to be a TON of passing yards to be had in this offense but I think you reduce Kitna's total numbers by 25% or 4 games. If the Lions are completely out of the running by late October or early November...please save all jokes...there is no reason to think Stanton will not start getting snaps. Working Stanton in over the last month of the season makes sense if the Lions are playing for another Top 10 pick. At that point there is no need for him to play caddy to Kitna. The kid will get some field work in December.

Some teams play for a playoff or Superbowl birth. Not my Lions. No, they play annual fall and early winter games for the rights to the next big thing(s). Anyway...

I think you need to prepare yourself for the last half of the season, if you own Kitna. I had Kitna in multiple leagues last year and he even helped me win a FF title. This year, though, I think he gets benched about the time you could really use his help in the FF playoffs.

3,000-3,200 range

13-16 TD range

11-14 INT range

 

[Iwannabeacowboybaby!]

How much of a risk is there that Stanton will get the call late in the season if the Lions are mathematically eliminated from the playoffs?

Personally, I don't think there's much of a chance.At a Lions workout recently, Martz was completely impressed with C. Johnson as he was catching everything in site.On the flip side when asked about Stanton after talking about Johnson......he said, "Let's just say Stanton has a lot of work to do."I don't see him as a threat at all. The Lions were mathematically out of the season for most of last season never mind late in the season last year and you didn't seem them throwing in Orlovsky.Marinelli wants to win every football game he can. He's a hard nosed football coach who may not have forever to win in Detroit, especially if Millen eventually goes. He doesn't have games to just throw away, for him every game counts.

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

There are going to be a TON of passing yards to be had in this offense but I think you reduce Kitna's total numbers by 25% or 4 games. If the Lions are completely out of the running by late October or early November...please save all jokes...there is no reason to think Stanton will not start getting snaps. Working Stanton in over the last month of the season makes sense if the Lions are playing for another Top 10 pick. At that point there is no need for him to play caddy to Kitna. The kid will get some field work in December.

I have a feeling that I had this thought while you typing this paragraph - sent it on the telepathy lines up I-35...

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

How much of a risk is there that Stanton will get the call late in the season if the Lions are mathematically eliminated from the playoffs?

Personally, I don't think there's much of a chance.At a Lions workout recently, Martz was completely impressed with C. Johnson as he was catching everything in site.On the flip side when asked about Stanton after talking about Johnson......he said, "Let's just say Stanton has a lot of work to do."I don't see him as a threat at all. The Lions were mathematically out of the season for most of last season never mind late in the season last year and you didn't seem them throwing in Orlovsky.Marinelli wants to win every football game he can. He's a hard nosed football coach who may not have forever to win in Detroit, especially if Millen eventually goes. He doesn't have games to just throw away, for him every game counts.

Stanton is being completely torn down and rebuilt from the ground up - no doubt about that.As far as Orlovsky last year - he wasn't even the backup, or the anointed QB of the future of the current regime - so I dont know if thats apples to apples.I agree with your take on Marinelli being competitive, but wouldn't be in the best interests of the franchise to get Stanton some seasoning before handing him the reins? I would argue that Rod's drive to make this franchise respectable would compel him to get Stanton ready more than it would compel him to leave Kitna in so they can go 7-9 instead of 5-11.

 

[Iwannabeacowboybaby!]

There are going to be a TON of passing yards to be had in this offense but I think you reduce Kitna's total numbers by 25% or 4 games. If the Lions are completely out of the running by late October or early November...please save all jokes...there is no reason to think Stanton will not start getting snaps. Working Stanton in over the last month of the season makes sense if the Lions are playing for another Top 10 pick. At that point there is no need for him to play caddy to Kitna. The kid will get some field work in December. 3,000-3,200 range13-16 TD range11-14 INT range

I think making a projection to cut 25 percent off the top due to the fact you're predicting the Lions to be out of the running in one of the worst divisions in the NFL is a mistake.For example, if Kitna ends up with 4000 yards again and you are asked why you projected 3000 yards passing and you said because you thought that an NFL team would be out of the running for playoffs with teams like Green Bay and Minnesota in the division.......I'd definately scratch my head wondering if you've watched the NFL the past 10 years.Anyone think the Saints would turn around from that disaster year two years ago and have the kind of offense they did last year?Sure, what you're saying is a possibility.....but it's just as likely that the Lions division is up for grabs with about 3 teams trying to win it and another team trying to get a wild card spot in a league where 9-7 can easily get you in.

 

[WhoDat]

There are going to be a TON of passing yards to be had in this offense but I think you reduce Kitna's total numbers by 25% or 4 games. If the Lions are completely out of the running by late October or early November...please save all jokes...there is no reason to think Stanton will not start getting snaps. Working Stanton in over the last month of the season makes sense if the Lions are playing for another Top 10 pick. At that point there is no need for him to play caddy to Kitna. The kid will get some field work in December.

I have a feeling that I had this thought while you typing this paragraph - sent it on the telepathy lines up I-35...

If you have sunshine in Austin, can you send some of that? There is no incentive for the Lions to let Kitna play out next season. Not when you picked a QB in Round 2 over much...MUCH...needed help at LB and DB. If Staton is your guy, then he is going to play in 2007 when you are eliminated. Ok, if the Lions are in the hunt for a playoff slot... <---most people reading...then Kitna rides it out. However, that is so unlikely.

Hey, Kitna is going to be good to great for 8 games of the season. If you are not penalized for turnovers, then he is presents awesome value. That next stretch of 4 games is about the time I would get concerned and have an alternative QB handy. I would write off the last 4 and head into the season with a QB that has a favorable schedule over the last 4 weeks. Kitna will most likely be sending in hand signals and wearing a cap in December.

 

[Iwannabeacowboybaby!]

How much of a risk is there that Stanton will get the call late in the season if the Lions are mathematically eliminated from the playoffs?

Personally, I don't think there's much of a chance.At a Lions workout recently, Martz was completely impressed with C. Johnson as he was catching everything in site.On the flip side when asked about Stanton after talking about Johnson......he said, "Let's just say Stanton has a lot of work to do."I don't see him as a threat at all. The Lions were mathematically out of the season for most of last season never mind late in the season last year and you didn't seem them throwing in Orlovsky.Marinelli wants to win every football game he can. He's a hard nosed football coach who may not have forever to win in Detroit, especially if Millen eventually goes. He doesn't have games to just throw away, for him every game counts.

Stanton is being completely torn down and rebuilt from the ground up - no doubt about that.As far as Orlovsky last year - he wasn't even the backup, or the anointed QB of the future of the current regime - so I dont know if thats apples to apples.I agree with your take on Marinelli being competitive, but wouldn't be in the best interests of the franchise to get Stanton some seasoning before handing him the reins? I would argue that Rod's drive to make this franchise respectable would compel him to get Stanton ready more than it would compel him to leave Kitna in so they can go 7-9 instead of 5-11.

Maybe Bloom, but if that was his way of thinking.......how come they beat the Cowboys the last game of the season in a game the Cowboys needed to win and a game that cost the Lions the NO.1 overall pick.My opinion on this guy is he's going to win every game they possibly can and play the best players at each position he has each week. It's his first NFL head coaching job and who's to say he'll ever get another one of this one goes down the toilet. I mean, if Stanton is a stud and deserves to go in......he'll be in there. But, I don't think he is...that's just my opinion. And with that, I don't think he throws a rookie in just to throw him in, I just don't see him doing that.Keep this in mind also....Martz is trying to get a head coaching job somewhere. He wants his offense to look as sharp as possible each week so that he can prove to someone he deserves another shot as head coach.Do you think Martz is gonna throw some rookie QB in the offense that'll make his offense look bad? I dont, I think they play who's best because this is like a job interview for Martz to GM's out there who may be looking for a coach the following year.

 

[Iwannabeacowboybaby!]

Hey, Kitna is going to be good to great for 8 games of the season. If you are not penalized for turnovers, then he is presents awesome value. That next stretch of 4 games is about the time I would get concerned and have an alternative QB handy. I would write off the last 4 and head into the season with a QB that has a favorable schedule over the last 4 weeks. Kitna will most likely be sending in hand signals and wearing a cap in December.

People are projecting him with over 4000 yards and mid 20's on Td's, easily being a top 10 QB drafted. With that ADP.......I have no idea how you think that is awesome value.I'll stop with the debate before Jason kicks me to the curb.

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

How much of a risk is there that Stanton will get the call late in the season if the Lions are mathematically eliminated from the playoffs?

Personally, I don't think there's much of a chance.At a Lions workout recently, Martz was completely impressed with C. Johnson as he was catching everything in site.On the flip side when asked about Stanton after talking about Johnson......he said, "Let's just say Stanton has a lot of work to do."I don't see him as a threat at all. The Lions were mathematically out of the season for most of last season never mind late in the season last year and you didn't seem them throwing in Orlovsky.Marinelli wants to win every football game he can. He's a hard nosed football coach who may not have forever to win in Detroit, especially if Millen eventually goes. He doesn't have games to just throw away, for him every game counts.

Stanton is being completely torn down and rebuilt from the ground up - no doubt about that.As far as Orlovsky last year - he wasn't even the backup, or the anointed QB of the future of the current regime - so I dont know if thats apples to apples.I agree with your take on Marinelli being competitive, but wouldn't be in the best interests of the franchise to get Stanton some seasoning before handing him the reins? I would argue that Rod's drive to make this franchise respectable would compel him to get Stanton ready more than it would compel him to leave Kitna in so they can go 7-9 instead of 5-11.

Maybe Bloom, but if that was his way of thinking.......how come they beat the Cowboys the last game of the season in a game the Cowboys needed to win and a game that cost the Lions the NO.1 overall pick.My opinion on this guy is he's going to win every game they possibly can and play the best players at each position he has each week. It's his first NFL head coaching job and who's to say he'll ever get another one of this one goes down the toilet. I mean, if Stanton is a stud and deserves to go in......he'll be in there. But, I don't think he is...that's just my opinion. And with that, I don't think he throws a rookie in just to throw him in, I just don't see him doing that.Keep this in mind also....Martz is trying to get a head coaching job somewhere. He wants his offense to look as sharp as possible each week so that he can prove to someone he deserves another shot as head coach.Do you think Martz is gonna throw some rookie QB in the offense that'll make his offense look bad? I dont, I think they play who's best because this is like a job interview for Martz to GM's out there who may be looking for a coach the following year.

You make a good case (although its based on speculating on what's in the minds of the coaches), and WhoDat also makes a good case (i find it more compelling because it seems like the pattern in the league, even Tarvaris got in late last year when his team was out of the running and he was rawer than sushi) - either way, I think we've established that this is something you MUST account for when projecting Kitna - either explain why you don't think its a factor, or have it reflected in the numbers because it might be.

 

[WhoDat]

There are going to be a TON of passing yards to be had in this offense but I think you reduce Kitna's total numbers by 25% or 4 games. If the Lions are completely out of the running by late October or early November...please save all jokes...there is no reason to think Stanton will not start getting snaps. Working Stanton in over the last month of the season makes sense if the Lions are playing for another Top 10 pick. At that point there is no need for him to play caddy to Kitna. The kid will get some field work in December. 3,000-3,200 range13-16 TD range11-14 INT range

I think making a projection to cut 25 percent off the top due to the fact you're predicting the Lions to be out of the running in one of the worst divisions in the NFL is a mistake.For example, if Kitna ends up with 4000 yards again and you are asked why you projected 3000 yards passing and you said because you thought that an NFL team would be out of the running for playoffs with teams like Green Bay and Minnesota in the division.......I'd definately scratch my head wondering if you've watched the NFL the past 10 years.Anyone think the Saints would turn around from that disaster year two years ago and have the kind of offense they did last year?Sure, what you're saying is a possibility.....but it's just as likely that the Lions division is up for grabs with about 3 teams trying to win it and another team trying to get a wild card spot in a league where 9-7 can easily get you in.

I understand what you are saying and I would not disagree. However, as a Lions fan, I think you should make other arrangments for the QB position towards the end of your FF season. The team did nothing of significance to address massive problems at LB or DB. Actually, they bypassed much needed and available help at each position in Round 2 of the draft to take Stanton. Based on what I have read/heard the HC and OC love this kid. Each agrees that Stanton was not the problem at MSU. It was MSU and the program. Stanton is going to play this year. I would love to have the homer take and agree with the rags to riches possibilities you present but the Bears and Packers are just that much better right now. People are knocking that Harrell pick but, if that kid gets healthy, the Packers are going to have a really good defense. The Bears are still the Bears. There is a LARGE personnel gap between what the Bears, Packers and Lions trot onto the field each week. If Jones were going to be around for 16 games and if something more had been done to the defense, I might feel differently. However, the Lions cannot run the football and they cannot stop the run. In order to win football games you have to be able to do both better than the other guy.I would be the first person to dig up this thread; your comments and the like if the Lions really get going this year. My feeling, though, is that the team is going to be fun to watch. You are going to want to own a fewe of their players for FF reasons but they are not going to be able to stop anyone with regularity on Sundays. Kitna is not the problem. The defense is, which will ultimately impact Kitna's FF value over the last portion of the season.

 

[WhoDat]

Hey, Kitna is going to be good to great for 8 games of the season. If you are not penalized for turnovers, then he is presents awesome value. That next stretch of 4 games is about the time I would get concerned and have an alternative QB handy. I would write off the last 4 and head into the season with a QB that has a favorable schedule over the last 4 weeks. Kitna will most likely be sending in hand signals and wearing a cap in December.

People are projecting him with over 4000 yards and mid 20's on Td's, easily being a top 10 QB drafted. With that ADP.......I have no idea how you think that is awesome value.I'll stop with the debate before Jason kicks me to the curb.

Not every league is comprised of 10, 12 or 14 guys that visit these boards during the offseason. Thus, in certain leagues with a lower knowledge base, Kitna is going to have great value.

 

[lord_helmet]

As a Kitna dynasty owner and in trouble at QB, I had to pick Stanton with the 9th overall rookie pick in a recent draft. The more I think about it the more I like that "reach", just hope he get a year or two at least with Martz, but however it turns out he will have some quality targets when he takes the field.

 

[KING]

you pretty much know what you're getting with kitna. lots of yards, and int's. the lions Def, and running game should be about the same as last year, so i expect kitna's #'s to be the same also.

360 600 4200 24 td 20 int

 

[Chase Stuart]

Based on the projections here, it seems as though everyone is expecting Kitna to throw 600 times. And maybe he will. Kitna's 596 attempts last year was the 19th most of all time. So I doubled that to look at the 38 players with the most attempts in a season to get a sense of how they did the following year. Favre06, Kitna06, Bulger06 and Tarkenton78 (retired) of course were deleted, leaving 34 QBs.

The average QB in Year N played in 15.9G and threw 599.4 passes, an average of 37.8 PA/G. The average QB in Year N+1 played in 13.7G (a normal amount under any sort of analysis; this is not to imply that QBs that throw a lot of passes are more apt to miss games the next year) and threw 467.5 passes, an average of 34.1 PA/G, and 546 over a 16 game season.

Now if you're going to project EVERY QB to take every snap for his team, then you probably should have no problem giving Kitna at least 546 attempts for the season. I still would be wary -- even entirely discounting injury risk -- of giving him more than 575 attempts.

Warren Moon threw 40.9 PA/G in 1991, and just 31.5 PA/G in 1992. Drew Bledsoe threw 623 passes in 1996, and then 522 in 1995 while playing 16 games. Bledsoe again fell off after throwing 610 passes his first year with the Bills, to only 471 in his second. Vinny Testaverde threw a ton of passes in 2000 -- 590, to be exact -- but only 441 in 2001. Rich Gannon had 618 attempts in 2002, but even before the injury, was falling well short of that mark in 2003 (6.5 fewer PA/G).

It goes the other way, too, of course. Favre threw 607 passes in 2005, and 613 in 2006. Fouts80 went from 589 to 609, and Moon90 went from 584 to 655. Those were the only three in the sample to throw more attempts per game the next year, though.

So what's this all mean? Kitna's Lions have a defense that seems likely to be awful, and maybe worse than last year. And Kevin Jones is hurt, so the running game should be worse, too. This might mean we'd expect Kitna to throw even more passes this year, making him less like the other QBs in the study. But I still wouldn't be comfortable projecting an injury-free Kitna at over 570 passes, which implies a drop-off of less than half as many PA/G as the norm. That amounts to taking 200 yards and a TD or so off his projections, so while not insignificant, it might cause you to reconsider where you rank him.

 

[BigSteelThrill]

Martz led passing offenses - attempts - past 5 seasons...

596 2006 Lions

599 2005 Rams

580 2004 Rams

600 2003 Rams

635 2002 Rams

14-2, 8-8, 6-10, 3-13 ... doesnt seem matter.

 

[lord_helmet]

Martz still will be calling the plays and they have one helluva combo at WR + crappy defense, they will pass a ton - guaranteed

 

[KING]

Martz still will be calling the plays and they have one helluva combo at WR + crappy defense, they will pass a ton - guaranteed

when you have a top ten pick every year. and every year you spent that top ten pick on a receiver. you'd better pass alot!

 

[hutchins929]

400/635 about 63% comp

4400 yds

25 tds 23 ints

65 sacks

35 rushes

160 yds

about 4.6 avg

3 tds

 

[Da Guru]

3800-4100 yards

22-24 TDs

16 Ints

 

[jurb26]

I, just like everyone else apparently, love Kitna tis year. What more can you want? Bad team/D with great WRs and passing scheme as well as an aggressive play caller who can take advantage of it. I have to say I'm certainly worried about the addition of Stanton. I think Stanton will get worked into playing time at some point or other this year and vulture some of Kitna's fantasy points.

Passing: 580 att., 348 comp., 3945 yds, 25 TDs, 18 Ints

Rushing: 25 att., 60 yds

 

[Iwannabeacowboybaby!]

Martz led passing offenses - attempts - past 5 seasons...596 2006 Lions599 2005 Rams580 2004 Rams600 2003 Rams635 2002 Rams 14-2, 8-8, 6-10, 3-13 ... doesnt seem matter.

 

[lions327]

4300 passing yards, 25 TD's 19 INT's, 150 rushing yards and 3 rushing TD's.

The above is slightly better than last year. Another year in the Martz offense, plus some offensive line help; and adding Calvin and Shaun McDonald will finally give Martz some WR's to allow him to use more of his playbook.

I don't expect Kitna to be sitting on the bench unless he plays really bad or gets hurt. One thing that Marinelli is trying to do is to get rid of the losers mentality that has plagued this team for a long time. His way of doing it is to put the team in the best possible position to win right now. That is why Kitna played every snap last year, and why I think this year will be the same. He has to get rid of the losing culture that has been a part of this franchise for many years. Part of that is playing his best players, the players who earn the right to play, and the ones who give the Lions the best chance to win. Stanton is being torn down by Martz and rebuilt, and combined with his complex offense, I don't think he will be ready to play this year anyways.

The big thing is Marinelli wanting to change the losing culture here, and playing a rookie who doesn't give them a chance to win doesn't send the message he wants sent right now. Maybe in the future it would be different, but I just don't see it this season.

 

[duaneok66]

As a Kitna dynasty owner and in trouble at QB, I had to pick Stanton with the 9th overall rookie pick in a recent draft. The more I think about it the more I like that "reach", just hope he get a year or two at least with Martz, but however it turns out he will have some quality targets when he takes the field.

who else do you have at QB?? I'd say you reached, unless you think that Stanton was the best of all the available QBs . . .

 

[Biabreakable]

Martz led passing offenses - attempts - past 5 seasons...596 2006 Lions599 2005 Rams580 2004 Rams600 2003 Rams635 2002 Rams 14-2, 8-8, 6-10, 3-13 ... doesnt seem matter.

Agreed.In reference to the Lions defense and how that may effect Lions offense. I see a lot of shoot outs in games vs. the Lions coming. While thier defense is poor overall I think it is weaker against the pass than it is against the run. Oposing offenses will not just run the ball to keep the Lions offense off the field. They are going to be able to score in the passing game and they will.This in turn will help the Lions offense to run at least a normal amount of plays. A high percentage of which will be pass attempts. Tatem Bell/Duckett are not going to be able to grind the ball. This team will be all about excitement and which team can score 40.Kitna is a tough player. I believe he will play all year regardless of the Lions record. Stanton is no Carson Palmer and even Palmer had to sit his whole 1st season while Kitna played very well, with another Bengals team that had budding offensive stars but poor personel throughout the rest of the team. But with a defensive minded coach. It all seems very similar in many ways.Jon Kitna 602 pass attempts 373 completions (62%) 4334 yards 25 TD 19 INT 36 rush 165 yards 1 TDI doubted this offense working last year because of the lack of WR and poor Oline but if this offense can turn Furrey into a monster it is likely to be able to find ways to get Calvin Johnson the ball too.

 

[lord_helmet]

As a Kitna dynasty owner and in trouble at QB, I had to pick Stanton with the 9th overall rookie pick in a recent draft. The more I think about it the more I like that "reach", just hope he get a year or two at least with Martz, but however it turns out he will have some quality targets when he takes the field.

who else do you have at QB?? I'd say you reached, unless you think that Stanton was the best of all the available QBs . . .

Both Russell and Quinn was picked just ahead of me, but yes I'm gambling that Stanton is the Lions QB of the future.

 

[Assani Fisher]

In general, there are two types of QBs that are overrated:

1) QBs on teams that throw a lot of passes

2) QBs that take close to 100% of their team's passes

Why is that? If you don't miss games due to injury, and your team throws the ball a lot, you're pretty much guaranteed to pass for a ton of yards. Well, unless you're John Kitna, 2001.

Jon Kitna was the 6th best fantasy QB last year. That's misleading, because he played every game. Going by team QBs, Detroit TM QB ranked 8th overall. Dallas and Philadelphia both scored more FPs than Detroit QBs last year.

In terms of fantasy points derived from the passing game, Det QBs ranked 7th (moving ahead of Atlanta, obviously). But Detroit QBs ranked 21st (behind Atlanta, as well) in passing fantasy points per pass attempt.

Now you might say, who cares where a team ranks in passing fantasy points per pass attempt. And there's some merit to that. But team passing attempts doesn't correlate very well from year to year. And that's important to know. So seeing a 6 next to Jon Kitna's name last year is probably less useful than seeing a 21 next to his name. (And before someone asks: Indy, Phi, NO, Cin -- the teams at the top of the TM QB FP list, were also at the very top of the passing fantasy points per attempt list. So I don't think a successful argument in defense of Detroit's low PFP/att rank is that Detroit had lots of attempts.)

At this point, you can feel free to upgrade Kitna because you think:

1) the 2007 Lions will pass the ball more -- and maybe a lot more -- often than the league average team.

2) the 2007 Lions have a better supporting cast than the 2006 version, mostly thanks to Calvin Johnson.

3) any Kitna related reason to move him up (I think Kitna will do a better job QBing this year than last, where he threw more INTs than TDs).

4) any other reason related to the 2007 Lions.

Your post was on the verge of convincing me until you got to the point about Detroit QBs being 8th overall....I was expecting that to be much much lower and the core of your argument(that Kitna staying healthy was the main reason for his success and that was just random chance).

 

[Chase Stuart]

In general, there are two types of QBs that are overrated:

1) QBs on teams that throw a lot of passes

2) QBs that take close to 100% of their team's passes

Why is that? If you don't miss games due to injury, and your team throws the ball a lot, you're pretty much guaranteed to pass for a ton of yards. Well, unless you're John Kitna, 2001.

Jon Kitna was the 6th best fantasy QB last year. That's misleading, because he played every game. Going by team QBs, Detroit TM QB ranked 8th overall. Dallas and Philadelphia both scored more FPs than Detroit QBs last year.

In terms of fantasy points derived from the passing game, Det QBs ranked 7th (moving ahead of Atlanta, obviously). But Detroit QBs ranked 21st (behind Atlanta, as well) in passing fantasy points per pass attempt.

Now you might say, who cares where a team ranks in passing fantasy points per pass attempt. And there's some merit to that. But team passing attempts doesn't correlate very well from year to year. And that's important to know. So seeing a 6 next to Jon Kitna's name last year is probably less useful than seeing a 21 next to his name. (And before someone asks: Indy, Phi, NO, Cin -- the teams at the top of the TM QB FP list, were also at the very top of the passing fantasy points per attempt list. So I don't think a successful argument in defense of Detroit's low PFP/att rank is that Detroit had lots of attempts.)

At this point, you can feel free to upgrade Kitna because you think:

1) the 2007 Lions will pass the ball more -- and maybe a lot more -- often than the league average team.

2) the 2007 Lions have a better supporting cast than the 2006 version, mostly thanks to Calvin Johnson.

3) any Kitna related reason to move him up (I think Kitna will do a better job QBing this year than last, where he threw more INTs than TDs).

4) any other reason related to the 2007 Lions.

Your post was on the verge of convincing me until you got to the point about Detroit QBs being 8th overall....I was expecting that to be much much lower and the core of your argument(that Kitna staying healthy was the main reason for his success and that was just random chance).

I've got no agenda here. I'm not pro or anti-Kitna, just trying to shed some light from a different angle.

 

[Longrifle]

Based on the projections here, it seems as though everyone is expecting Kitna to throw 600 times. And maybe he will. Kitna's 596 attempts last year was the 19th most of all time. So I doubled that to look at the 38 players with the most attempts in a season to get a sense of how they did the following year. Favre06, Kitna06, Bulger06 and Tarkenton78 (retired) of course were deleted, leaving 34 QBs.The average QB in Year N played in 15.9G and threw 599.4 passes, an average of 37.8 PA/G. The average QB in Year N+1 played in 13.7G (a normal amount under any sort of analysis; this is not to imply that QBs that throw a lot of passes are more apt to miss games the next year) and threw 467.5 passes, an average of 34.1 PA/G, and 546 over a 16 game season.Now if you're going to project EVERY QB to take every snap for his team, then you probably should have no problem giving Kitna at least 546 attempts for the season. I still would be wary -- even entirely discounting injury risk -- of giving him more than 575 attempts. Warren Moon threw 40.9 PA/G in 1991, and just 31.5 PA/G in 1992. Drew Bledsoe threw 623 passes in 1996, and then 522 in 1995 while playing 16 games. Bledsoe again fell off after throwing 610 passes his first year with the Bills, to only 471 in his second. Vinny Testaverde threw a ton of passes in 2000 -- 590, to be exact -- but only 441 in 2001. Rich Gannon had 618 attempts in 2002, but even before the injury, was falling well short of that mark in 2003 (6.5 fewer PA/G).It goes the other way, too, of course. Favre threw 607 passes in 2005, and 613 in 2006. Fouts80 went from 589 to 609, and Moon90 went from 584 to 655. Those were the only three in the sample to throw more attempts per game the next year, though.So what's this all mean? Kitna's Lions have a defense that seems likely to be awful, and maybe worse than last year. And Kevin Jones is hurt, so the running game should be worse, too. This might mean we'd expect Kitna to throw even more passes this year, making him less like the other QBs in the study. But I still wouldn't be comfortable projecting an injury-free Kitna at over 570 passes, which implies a drop-off of less than half as many PA/G as the norm. That amounts to taking 200 yards and a TD or so off his projections, so while not insignificant, it might cause you to reconsider where you rank him.

I think wehave to assume that Kitna will miss some time. Martz is known for calling playes that force the QB to get the ball out quick or be sacked. Remember the last 2 QB's that Martz called playes for were Bulger and Warner (both took a lot of hits and had to miss some games). Granted Kinta has stayed fairly healthy through his carreer. The other factor is the new QB. If things are bad or real good (it could happen) towards the end of the season Kinta may get some rest. Taking all this into account here is how I see it falling out ...Passing Yards 4,120 (a bit down from last year)Passing TDs 25Ints 19 (Martz offense has never been know for protecting the ball well)Rush Yards 102Rush TDs 1

 

[Bri]

In general, there are two types of QBs that are overrated:

1) QBs on teams that throw a lot of passes

2) QBs that take close to 100% of their team's passes

Why is that? If you don't miss games due to injury, and your team throws the ball a lot, you're pretty much guaranteed to pass for a ton of yards. Well, unless you're John Kitna, 2001.

what's overrated about throwing all of a team's passes and throwing alot?BTW Kitna wasn't overrated in 2001

Jon Kitna was the 6th best fantasy QB last year. That's misleading, because he played every game. Going by team QBs, Detroit TM QB ranked 8th overall. Dallas and Philadelphia both scored more FPs than Detroit QBs last year.

What league uses team QBs?

In terms of fantasy points derived from the passing game, Det QBs ranked 7th (moving ahead of Atlanta, obviously). But Detroit QBs ranked 21st (behind Atlanta, as well) in passing fantasy points per pass attempt.

Now you might say, who cares where a team ranks in passing fantasy points per pass attempt. And there's some merit to that. But team passing attempts doesn't correlate very well from year to year. And that's important to know.

sooooo you play in a league that scores per pass attempt?

 

[BigSteelThrill]

Detroit Lions head coach Rod Marinelli said QB Jon Kitna has really impressed him during the team's minicamp.

"The quarterback, Kit(na). He's really got a grasp on this offense. He really does.

Now the weapons we have out there, the speed we have out there, I think that all has a chance to come together," Marinelli said.

 

[BigRed]

Lock for 4,000 yds and 20-24+ TD...what else did you want to know?

what drugs you're smoking Cmon this aint Peyton Manning, this is Jon freakin Kitna. He isn't cracking 4000+ 2 yrs running, even given the addition of Calvin J, and oh btw isn't exactly famous for consistency or a great TD/INT ratio. I'd settle for him if I was doing the strat of waiting on getting a "good enough" QB, but would rather not. People are overestimating Calvin J's impact.Then again last year I drafted Bledsoe and Kitna and started Bledsoe way more than I should've, so take that into account.

 

[BigRed]

You make a good case (although its based on speculating on what's in the minds of the coaches), and WhoDat also makes a good case (i find it more compelling because it seems like the pattern in the league, even Tarvaris got in late last year when his team was out of the running and he was rawer than sushi) - either way, I think we've established that this is something you MUST account for when projecting Kitna - either explain why you don't think its a factor, or have it reflected in the numbers because it might be.

Generally speaking, you rarely will see a backup QB - rookie backup QB who wasn't a 1st round pick no less - come in and replace the starter, even late in the year and if your playoff shot is gone, if the starter is playing at least decently. And while drafting a QB w/the 2d round pick is significant, it hardly means you've pinned all your hopes on him. Stanton could just as easily fade into oblivion (both this year and generally) as he could end up the starter next year.Kitna isn't consistent, but I think he does and will at least play well enough for the HC and/or OC to know he gives them their best shot at winning, and don't delude yourselves that they don't care about that just because they (surprise) don't have a shot at the SB. Sure Stanton might get some token snaps, but 25% of ALL snaps for the year? Unless Kitna nose-dives, no way.

 

[Maurile Tremblay]

Assuming he stays healthy:

319 completions, 537 attempts, 3489 yards, 20 TDs, 20 INTs / 43 rushes, 126 yards, 1.7 TDs

 

[Biabreakable]

Assuming he stays healthy:319 completions, 537 attempts, 3489 yards, 20 TDs, 20 INTs / 43 rushes, 126 yards, 1.7 TDs

Why so low on pass attempts? Even when Kevin Jones was healthy the Lions did not run the ball very much.Will Duckett and Bell cause the Lions offense to be more balanced than last year?

 

[wannabee]

Assuming he stays healthy:319 completions, 537 attempts, 3489 yards, 20 TDs, 20 INTs / 43 rushes, 126 yards, 1.7 TDs

Why so low on pass attempts? Even when Kevin Jones was healthy the Lions did not run the ball very much.Will Duckett and Bell cause the Lions offense to be more balanced than last year?

Maybe he thinks another QB (Stanton) will get some attempts ...