Player Spotlight: Kevin Curtis (1 Viewer)

[Jason Wood]

2008 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. Last year, we published more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters. This year will be no different.

Each week we will post a list of players to be discussed. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discussion expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Kevin Curtis, WR, Philadelphia Eagles

Player Page Link: Kevin Curtis Player Page

Each article will include:

Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads
FBG Projections
Consensus Member ProjectionsThe Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

Focus commentary on the player in question, and your expectations for said player
Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
To be included in the final synopsis and consensus outlook, you MUST provide projections for the playerProjections should include (at a minimum):

For QBs: Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDsNow let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

WOW, 77/1110/6 TD...he looks pretty solid. The reality is he had a few really big games and a lot of these...2/53, 4/28, 2/21, 3/20, 3/26, 5/40...but then again a lot of WR do. He also had 11/220/3, 5/120/TD, 5/62, 3/76, 5/51, 5/69, 5/71, 6/111/TD, 6/78/TD, 7/62...in PPR leagues he was very nice as most drafted him in the 7th-8th round...now that is some serious value!!!

And this year I don't see him being grabbed in the 4th round so again he might represent some value. DeSean Jackson has been added but I don't see that as a negative. Reggie Brown was coming on so he might actually help keep Curtis in one on one routes where he can stretch the field. Curtis is a fly pattern king and in a best ball elague he is almost a topflight WR as you never have to worry about when to start him.

64/1000/6 TD...those seem like very doable numbers to me. Just don't reach for him.

 

[Balco]

Value. Value. Value.

People keep looking to find the #1 for Philly. This guy is more than capable. With a year to get comfortable with the system, I think Curtis improves on his numbers.

87 catches 1200 yards 7 tds.

 

[Fighting Noles]

WOW, 77/1110/6 TD...he looks pretty solid. The reality is he had a few really big games and a lot of these...2/53, 4/28, 2/21, 3/20, 3/26, 5/40...but then again a lot of WR do. He also had 11/220/3, 5/120/TD, 5/62, 3/76, 5/51, 5/69, 5/71, 6/111/TD, 6/78/TD, 7/62...in PPR leagues he was very nice as most drafted him in the 7th-8th round...now that is some serious value!!!And this year I don't see him being grabbed in the 4th round so again he might represent some value. DeSean Jackson has been added but I don't see that as a negative. Reggie Brown was coming on so he might actually help keep Curtis in one on one routes where he can stretch the field. Curtis is a fly pattern king and in a best ball elague he is almost a topflight WR as you never have to worry about when to start him. 64/1000/6 TD...those seem like very doable numbers to me. Just don't reach for him.

I agree with this. BESTBALL is clearly the best format for Curtis but he makes a good WR4 (if you have 3 med. WRs' & need an upside guy for certain weeks) or a lowend WR3 if you have two VERY solid WRs' and went QB or TE a little early....

 

[Banger]

I targetted him last year in every league because you could get him for nothing and he had a good situation but this year he'll be on too many people's radar and be too expensive for his upside. He had a nice season last year but is very replaceable IMO if another WR steps up. He's solid but unspectular and if he's the starter with McNabb at the helm he'll get his targets/yards.

65-1000-5

 

[TheFanatic]

Curtis was MONEY against teams that sucked against the pass. But the rest of the time he was pretty bad. Starting him against teams like the Jets and Detroit and he tore it up. The rest of the time he just blew.

 

[Iwannabeacowboybaby!]

Curtis was MONEY against teams that sucked against the pass. But the rest of the time he was pretty bad. Starting him against teams like the Jets and Detroit and he tore it up. The rest of the time he just blew.

I was looking at the players this week and I can tell you this definately crossed my mind with him. He had like 1100 yards receiving...which is awesome.However, I'm going to have a tough time projecting 1100 again. I'm going to looking at his schedule for this year to see if he plays the Lions. I think he had like 200 yards in the first half...............and they were 4-1 heading into that game!!!!!!!! The Lions that is

 

[Iwannabeacowboybaby!]

Curtis was MONEY against teams that sucked against the pass. But the rest of the time he was pretty bad. Starting him against teams like the Jets and Detroit and he tore it up. The rest of the time he just blew.

Quoted to add, this could be the type of player better suited for a Survivor or all inclusive draft type draft league where you don't have to decide when to start this guy, sort of like Galloway.

 

[Jason Wood]

I'm surprised Curtis isn't getting more discussion this week. Taking a quick look at the current rankings for Curtis, it seems that the majority of my fellow staffers are expecting a pretty demonstrative drop off in Curtis' productivity.

Curtis was the 17th best fantasy receiver last year and yet is projected WR31 in our current rankings. He had 77 catches for 1,110 yards and 6 touchdowns; which equates to 147 points in FBG scoring.

Over the last five years, the 31st ranked fantasy WR had the following numbers:

71/732/7/116

36/605/9/115

73/845/5/115

73/978/4/127

59/600/5/102

The 31st ranked fantasy WR has averaged:

62.4 receptions
752 yards
6 TDs
111.2 fantasy pointsI'm struggling to understand why Curtis, in his 2nd year in the system, still atop the WR depth chart, would be in line for such a dramatic downturn in productivity. He's the #1 wideout on one of the most pass happy teams in the league, is healthy and yet the current consensus rankings imply a 25% decline in his productivity.

 

[Tanner9919]

Curtis was MONEY against teams that sucked against the pass. But the rest of the time he was pretty bad. Starting him against teams like the Jets and Detroit and he tore it up. The rest of the time he just blew.

 

[KellysHeroes]

McNabb should look much better this yr since hes 2 yrs removed from his injury. KC will have another yr to learn the system.

What I saw in the games was that KC should had a lot more Pts last season... he ran good routes and had great seperation on long balls.. McNabb just suxd at times and couldn't hit him. If McNabb is healthy all yr long... KC has top 15 Ceiling.

Projections w/ a Healthy McNabb

70+ Recs / 1200 yds / 8 TDs

 

[Sake-Bombers]

I'm struggling to understand why Curtis, in his 2nd year in the system, still atop the WR depth chart, would be in line for such a dramatic downturn in productivity. He's the #1 wideout on one of the most pass happy teams in the league, is healthy and yet the current consensus rankings imply a 25% decline in his productivity.

I'll take a stab at this:-I'm not so sure the consensus fantasy opinion on Curtis is that he's the #1 receiver in Philly. I would venture to say that a lot of folks consider him and Brown to be 1b and 1b (if that makes sense). I just looked at target and reception numbers, and I think for both there are only 4 games where Brown out-targeted and/or out-receptioned Curtis, so not saying the numbers bear it out, but I think folks have a hard time swallowing Curtis as a number one WR.-Fairly or not, I think there's also a "Drew Bennett effect" here. As many have pointed out, his big games boosted his overall totals, and he wasn't quite consistent enough throughout the whole season to earn everyone's trust that he can be a consistent performer.-I think the QB situation is another thing that's going to be push people down on himThose aren't my opinions, just an attempt at answering your questions, Jason, about what may be holding projections (and even opinions) down on the guy.That being said, I personally see no reason either why Curtis won't average at least 4-5 receptions a game, and at least 60 yards, and at least a couple LONG TDs throughout the year. I'll go with something like, but honestly think he could outperform this:80/1050/7

 

[FTRWRTR]

I'm surprised Curtis isn't getting more discussion this week. Taking a quick look at the current rankings for Curtis, it seems that the majority of my fellow staffers are expecting a pretty demonstrative drop off in Curtis' productivity.

Curtis was the 17th best fantasy receiver last year and yet is projected WR31 in our current rankings. He had 77 catches for 1,110 yards and 6 touchdowns; which equates to 147 points in FBG scoring.

Over the last five years, the 31st ranked fantasy WR had the following numbers:

71/732/7/116

36/605/9/115

73/845/5/115

73/978/4/127

59/600/5/102

The 31st ranked fantasy WR has averaged:

62.4 receptions
752 yards
6 TDs
111.2 fantasy pointsI'm struggling to understand why Curtis, in his 2nd year in the system, still atop the WR depth chart, would be in line for such a dramatic downturn in productivity. He's the #1 wideout on one of the most pass happy teams in the league, is healthy and yet the current consensus rankings imply a 25% decline in his productivity.

In a league that uses PPR I traded curtis for white on a team that I'm helping to co-manage here's why. Philly loves to throw the ball but most ff owners fail to realize that when the eagles throw to their wrs they love to spread the ball around, yes a wr can get 70 or so catches in that offense but that's very rare. In the past six years only one other wr has gotten over 61 catches in a single season and that was TO his first year there.Also curtis' situation isn't anywhere as good as it was last year. This year LJ smith should be 100% and you also have desean jackson being drafted. Kevin curtis was there big play guy and he'll definitely lose some of those big play opportunites to the speedy jackson

I'm going a conservative 55-725-5

 

[Jason Wood]

I'm surprised Curtis isn't getting more discussion this week. Taking a quick look at the current rankings for Curtis, it seems that the majority of my fellow staffers are expecting a pretty demonstrative drop off in Curtis' productivity.

Curtis was the 17th best fantasy receiver last year and yet is projected WR31 in our current rankings. He had 77 catches for 1,110 yards and 6 touchdowns; which equates to 147 points in FBG scoring.

Over the last five years, the 31st ranked fantasy WR had the following numbers:

71/732/7/116

36/605/9/115

73/845/5/115

73/978/4/127

59/600/5/102

The 31st ranked fantasy WR has averaged:

62.4 receptions
752 yards
6 TDs
111.2 fantasy pointsI'm struggling to understand why Curtis, in his 2nd year in the system, still atop the WR depth chart, would be in line for such a dramatic downturn in productivity. He's the #1 wideout on one of the most pass happy teams in the league, is healthy and yet the current consensus rankings imply a 25% decline in his productivity.

In a league that uses PPR I traded curtis for white on a team that I'm helping to co-manage here's why. Philly loves to throw the ball but most ff owners fail to realize that when the eagles throw to their wrs they love to spread the ball around, yes a wr can get 70 or so catches in that offense but that's very rare. In the past six years only one other wr has gotten over 61 catches in a single season and that was TO his first year there.Also curtis' situation isn't anywhere as good as it was last year. This year LJ smith should be 100% and you also have desean jackson being drafted. Kevin curtis was there big play guy and he'll definitely lose some of those big play opportunites to the speedy jackson

I'm going a conservative 55-725-5

Fair points but I think it's Reggie Brown, not Kevin Curtis, who stands to lose targets at Jackson's expense. And that's IF he's a factor on offense. As an Eagles fan, I hope DeSean Jackson is the 2nd coming of Steve Smith; but unless he gets his attitude right, he won't be doing much vulturing of touches on offense at least early in the season.

 

[Jeff Tefertiller]

I did a little research on Curtis. I saw a few things that gave me cause for concern.

20% of Curtis' yards came in one game

50% of his TDs in same game

15% of receptions in same game

Only three games with at least 100 yards receiving

Curtis is a tough receiver to gauge and know when to insert into the fantasy lineup. He had several games that were clunkers. In fact, he had many more clunkers than good games. For my taste, there is way too much risk in starting him every week as a WR3.

 

[Andy Herron]

I did a little research on Curtis. I saw a few things that gave me cause for concern. 20% of Curtis' yards came in one game50% of his TDs in same game15% of receptions in same gameOnly three games with at least 100 yards receivingCurtis is a tough receiver to gauge and know when to insert into the fantasy lineup. He had several games that were clunkers. In fact, he had many more clunkers than good games. For my taste, there is way too much risk in starting him every week as a WR3.

Yep, I traded him off last year mid-season, and he was my WR4.

 

[The Man with the Plan]

A good wide receiver catching passes from a good quarterback. Where's the downside? Kevin Curtis can play. He should get over 1000 yards and 6-7 touchdowns again this season.

 

[Rockchild]

I'm not advocating taking him as your WR2 but he's a good WR3 and great WR4. With a year under his belt in this offense, I think he'll put up decent numbers.

68 rec. 877 yds 6 TD

 

[Iwannabeacowboybaby!]

Kevin Curtis had some monster games last season, showing that the Eagles knew how to exploit a weak situation. I like Kevin Curtis in Survivor formats as he can get you a ton of points in one week in not so many in other weeks. In all, he was more productive last season than I thought he'd be, he won't sneak up on me this year:

68 receptions, 1000 yards and 6 td's

 

[rzrback77]

Kevin Curtis screams value to me this year. He finished as WR 17 in FBG scoring in 07 in his first year in Philly. I have heard that their system is fairly complex so he should do better in his second year also with that additional time to build chemistry with McNabb.

I understand the high games and valleys. It is expected with all WRs, but may be accelerated with Curtis and his relatively poor ability to separate. However, shouldn't those weak defenses be spotted so you can better know his high games and valleys and not start him in bad spots.

His career reception percentage slipped in 07 and should improve some this year. He ranked 16th in the NFL in targets and if he keeps that level and ups his catch percentage just a little he'll provide value for where you draft him. Contrary to the target ranking of 17, he is currently ranked around 32 in the FBG ranking.

Kevin Curtis 140 targets 84 recptions (60%) for 1170 yards (13.9 ypc) and 8 TDs

 

[FUBAR]

A poor man's Lee Evans without the hype, but a better QB. (and probably a better value)

Some may say a poor man's Santonio Holmes

I'll say 75.1000.8

 

[Jon_Moore]

Curtis has a god combination of toughness and speed. However, last year seemed to be an anomoly. It's not often a receiver breaks out at 28. Philly's offense is pass pass pass, no doubt, but if Reggie Brown looks like the same guy from 2006, Deshaun Jackson is decent, and Westbrook doesn't die, then there just won't be enough balls for Curtis to get 1,000 again.

65 reception

865 yards

6 tds

 

[RoyDubb]

Kevin Curtis screams value to me this year. He finished as WR 17 in FBG scoring in 07 in his first year in Philly. I have heard that their system is fairly complex so he should do better in his second year also with that additional time to build chemistry with McNabb.I understand the high games and valleys. It is expected with all WRs, but may be accelerated with Curtis and his relatively poor ability to separate. However, shouldn't those weak defenses be spotted so you can better know his high games and valleys and not start him in bad spots.His career reception percentage slipped in 07 and should improve some this year. He ranked 16th in the NFL in targets and if he keeps that level and ups his catch percentage just a little he'll provide value for where you draft him. Contrary to the target ranking of 17, he is currently ranked around 32 in the FBG ranking.Kevin Curtis 140 targets 84 recptions (60%) for 1170 yards (13.9 ypc) and 8 TDs

so you expect Curtis targets to increase from last year with the addition of Desean Jackson, a healty LJ Smith and an improved Reggie Brown?

 

[teamroc]

so you expect Curtis targets to increase from last year with the addition of Desean Jackson, a healty LJ Smith and an improved Reggie Brown?

Improved Reggie Brown?Wow he had a birthday, he must be better.Brown isn't very good. Doesn't get ANY separation, and wouldn't start for 95% of the league. He's an below average starting WR.

 

[msommer]

so you expect Curtis targets to increase from last year with the addition of Desean Jackson, a healty LJ Smith and an improved Reggie Brown?

Improved Reggie Brown?Wow he had a birthday, he must be better.

Brown isn't very good. Doesn't get ANY separation, and wouldn't start for 95% of the league. He's an below average starting WR.

Has been said of any wr in an Eagles jersey the last many years - with the exception of Owens

 

[rzrback77]

Kevin Curtis screams value to me this year. He finished as WR 17 in FBG scoring in 07 in his first year in Philly. I have heard that their system is fairly complex so he should do better in his second year also with that additional time to build chemistry with McNabb.I understand the high games and valleys. It is expected with all WRs, but may be accelerated with Curtis and his relatively poor ability to separate. However, shouldn't those weak defenses be spotted so you can better know his high games and valleys and not start him in bad spots.His career reception percentage slipped in 07 and should improve some this year. He ranked 16th in the NFL in targets and if he keeps that level and ups his catch percentage just a little he'll provide value for where you draft him. Contrary to the target ranking of 17, he is currently ranked around 32 in the FBG ranking.Kevin Curtis 140 targets 84 recptions (60%) for 1170 yards (13.9 ypc) and 8 TDs

so you expect Curtis targets to increase from last year with the addition of Desean Jackson, a healty LJ Smith and an improved Reggie Brown?

Yes, I think that Brown will lose out some to Jackson and if Jackson can get on the field and if Smith actually does improve it will open things up more for Curtis, who struggled to get open when good defenses focused on him.