Player Spotlight: Kevin Smith (1 Viewer)

[Jason Wood]

2008 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. Last year, we published more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters. This year will be no different.

Each week we will post a list of players to be discussed. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discussion expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Kevin Smith, RB, Detroit Lions

Player Page Link: Kevin Smith Player Page

Each article will include:

Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads
FBG Projections
Consensus Member ProjectionsThe Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

Focus commentary on the player in question, and your expectations for said player
Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
To be included in the final synopsis and consensus outlook, you MUST provide projections for the playerProjections should include (at a minimum):

For QBs: Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDsNow let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

 

[Yitbos69]

 

[Burning Sensation]

240 car, 980 yards, 6 TDs

24 rec, 190 yards, 1 TD

 

[The Man with the Plan]

The Lions know what they have in Tatum Bell and that's not much so you would think that Kevin Smith should get most of the carries in Detroit. There's offensive talent on the team with Roy Williams and Calvin Johnson so he shouldn't see 8 in the box often. After that it's just a question of whether he has the ability to succeed or not and if the offensive line can be effective after being poor for several years.

 

[Sabertooth]

I liked Smith before the draft and that hasn't changed. I agree with the above poster, it would seem that at least early in the season teams will try to shut ROY and Megatron down. That may change as the season wears on. Tatum Bell is not a natural receiver. Is Kevin Smith a receiver?

We know he can carry the ball a lot. He averaged 29 per game last season in college. He almost broke former Lion Barry Sanders' rushing record last season, racking up 2567 yards last season. He could have challenged to be the all time collegiate rusher had he stayed in school.

A lot may come down to whether or not he can block on passing downs. It think he'll be just as good if not better than Bell if he can simply throw himself in front of rushers.

I'd say he gets 240 carries, about 1000 yards. 8 total touchdowns.

 

[brock]

he has potential but it will take detroit a few years or the canning of millen before he can show it.

185-640-3

15-100-0

 

[Jimmy James]

150/600/3

Not bad for a fat man in an overcoat.

Oh, receptions:

10-75-0

 

[gheemony]

To me, it will be fascinating to watch both Kevin Smith and Matt Forte. Both had terrific numbers in their final college season, both were considered behind the top tier of three RBs, both have good size, both appear to have some excellent skills as well as some deficiencies, both will play for bad teams with bad OLs, and both should have the opportunity to get lots of playing time. It's close to coin flip for me, but I'd lean towards Kevin Smith out-producing Forte.

No projection, but I'd say he ends up in the 18-24 range of RBs, with excitement for the future.

 

[Max Power]

I think some of you have gone a little nutty on Kevin Smith. Projecting him to average over 4.0 YPC behind one of the worst OLs in the NFL is a bit much for me. Lets not forget the lions have 2 games a piece vs some good run Ds in MIN, GB & Chi.

Smith is still currently #2 on the depth chart. Tatum Bell didn't play all that bad last season when given the chance. For whatever reason, Martz didn't like him, but Marinelli does. This season the Lions will run a zone blocking scheme, the same type of scheme Bell produced in during his days in Denver.

I fully expect to see a true RBBC here. Bell, Smith and Calhoun (if healthy) will all see a share of the carries.

 

[Sweet Love]

To me, it will be fascinating to watch both Kevin Smith and Matt Forte. Both had terrific numbers in their final college season, both were considered behind the top tier of three RBs, both have good size, both appear to have some excellent skills as well as some deficiencies, both will play for bad teams with bad OLs, and both should have the opportunity to get lots of playing time. It's close to coin flip for me, but I'd lean towards Kevin Smith out-producing Forte.No projection, but I'd say he ends up in the 18-24 range of RBs, with excitement for the future.

i am in the same boat (with the fascination). I think one will produce nice rookie numbers while the other will pull a Brandon Jackson...now if I could just predict which one will do what...

 

[Anthony Borbely]

Smith is still currently #2 on the depth chart.

Don't let that fool you, especially in June. Marinelli does not hand starting jobs to rookies.

 

[NoFBinLA]

Kevin Smith (RB DET) seems to attract similar reactions to what Kevin Smith (Filmaker, LA) does - either you are intrigued and on board or you don't get the jokes nor why anyone cares about other guy who never shuts up (that would be Jay or Jon Kitna - your choice).

As has been mentioned, the oline is my biggest worry. It was horrid last year. Just because Martz left doesn't give it a free pass for this year. They've tried to make some adjustments but I dunno if it will be enough. If they can't block for him, it's going to be hard to cut once and go through imaginary holes. The Lions ranked pretty low in the rush attempts department but they'll do more this year. How much is a mystery as well though.

The dude walked into a starting job (probably). That - fantasywise - is both a blessing and curse. A blessing in that, here's a rookie who can contribute quickly. A curse in that tons of fantasy owners will overvalue him. He isn't Peterson. He's not even Lynch or McFadden*. A starting job is a starting job though and that counts for something.

Still, he should get the chance to do some damage and if Kitna and the pass game keeps the D honest, he'll get some yards. I dunno I worry too much about the 'too many carries in college' thing but will say that it could cause him to wear down earlier in the season than other rookie RBs. So he might drop production the latter half of the season.

Of course, he's probably #3/border #2 material so THAT shouldn't be a problem........ should it? After the injury problems of last year, finding a surer bet would be a good idea I think.

The 'Snootch to the Bootch' Top side:

800 yds on the ground, 7TDs, 30 receptions for 200yds

The 'You look like Somebody crapped in your Cornflakes' Down side:

600 yds ground, 5TDs, 20 receptions for 100yds

*he gets the Barry Bonds asterisk until I see him play a few games in the NFL, but he has the look of a stud.

 

[plastik]

So many questions on the Detriot O, but I think this kid's got some serious natural instincts and he puts up better numbers than many expect.

Rushing 210/900/6

Receiving 20/180/2

1080 total yards with 8 TD's

 

[rzrback77]

Kevin Smith is a difficult call and he's a player that everyone will be watching this summer. He's the heir apparent in Detroit, but that has not been a hot spot for RBs since Barry Sanders left. The past two seasons the Lions have rushed 544 times for 2,134 yards and averaged just under 4 yards per carry.

Their hard nosed coach has said that they will run the ball more and better in 08, but they still have a bad team. Bad teams usually get behind early and its very hard to catch up running the ball.

Kevin Smith ran the ball a lot at the college level. He carried 450 times (almost 90% of the Lions two year total) in his senior year at Central Florida. He didn't face the stiffest of competition, but he produced in a significant way rushing for 2,567 yards (well over the Lions two year total).

He is listed at 6'-1" and weighs 217. This is interesting to me in that he is listed at the same height and only weighs six pounds more than Darren McFadden. I have not heard that many concerns about his body type and whether he can stand up to the NFL. The smallish Tatum Bell is listed at 5'-11" and 213.

I just don't see the Lions running the ball even half of the time. I also see a fairly large potential for a RBBC philosophy with Smith and Bell. Bell's current ADP at RB 43 and 125 overall sounds more palatable than Smith's RB 34 and 78 overall.

Kevin Smith 150 carries 600 yards 4.0 ypc and 20 receptions for 160 yards 8.0 ypc and 5 TDs

 

[burd]

i gotta think that Smith will start slow but get more touches as the season progresses. Besides having Tatum Bell to contend with, Smith's number of carries shouldn't be excessive because the Lions have been a pass-first team under Martz. As much as they say they're going to focus on running the ball this year, I see them playing from behind in most of their games because of their defense... which means that the Detroit offense will be forced to pass in these situations.

200 carries

840 yards

5 TDs

25 receptions

175 yards

3 TDs

 

[biggamer3]

Gotta believe he will start off the year with a RBBC, though he will get the bulk of carries at around mid season

remember, AP didnt get bulk until midseason too

225 carries for 1150 yards or so

25 rec for 140 yards, with 8 combined scores

 

[joffer]

Gotta believe he will start off the year with a RBBC, though he will get the bulk of carries at around mid seasonremember, AP didnt get bulk until midseason too225 carries for 1150 yards or so25 rec for 140 yards, with 8 combined scores

If Kevin Smith averages 5.1 YPC next year, I'll eat my foot 160/625/420/130/0

 

[aldelgreco]

How can you give projections when you have no idea where he will end up?

If he ends up in Chicago or Houston, I think that he could have a bigger year.

 

[jerseys finest]

How can you give projections when you have no idea where he will end up?If he ends up in Chicago or Houston, I think that he could have a bigger year.

i believe you are thinking of kevin jones. the RB who the lions cut ties with this offseason. this thread is about kevin smith, the RB who the lions drafted and who's only competition is Tatum Bell.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

Gotta believe he will start off the year with a RBBC, though he will get the bulk of carries at around mid season

remember, AP didnt get bulk until midseason too

225 carries for 1150 yards or so

25 rec for 140 yards, with 8 combined scores

this isnt true

 

[Jon_Moore]

Smith falls into a great situation in the sense that there isn't alot of competition for him. Bell excells at getting to the outside and breaking a long one, or finding a seem and going far, but he isn't doing anything if there's not a lot of room there for him. Calhoun hasn't really shown much of anything to date in the NFL.

He has 2 very talented receivers on the outside, and the running game in Detroit hasn't scared anyone in years---defenses have no reason to stack the box.

That said, there's a reason defenses don't stack the box. Kevin Jones was way more talented than Smith is, and only managed to average 4.0 YPC in his time as a Lion. If you take away his rookie season, he averaged around 3.6. Kitna has turned it over 57 times in the past 32 regular season games--maybe partially something to do with Martz's gun-slinging offense, but the Lions are always forced to pass in the end--bad defense+bad running game.

Roy Williams can't stay healty, Calvin hasn't given coordinators a lot of reasons for fits so far, the offense looks average this year.

224 Rushes

851 Yards

5 Tds

24 Receptions

146 Yards

 

[BigRed]

Kevin Jones was way more talented than Smith is, and only managed to average 4.0 YPC in his time as a Lion. If you take away his rookie season, he averaged around 3.6.

Yeah but he couldn't stay healthy and frankly I never did buy him as a big-time RB (although at times he proved me wrong, doing very well for stretches). I don't buy "way more talented" than Smith either. There is the suspect OL and possible RBBC though. Still, he's worth a RB3 project kinda pick - no more.

 

[Jon_Moore]

Kevin Jones was way more talented than Smith is, and only managed to average 4.0 YPC in his time as a Lion. If you take away his rookie season, he averaged around 3.6.

Yeah but he couldn't stay healthy and frankly I never did buy him as a big-time RB (although at times he proved me wrong, doing very well for stretches). I don't buy "way more talented" than Smith either. There is the suspect OL and possible RBBC though. Still, he's worth a RB3 project kinda pick - no more.

Personally I'd prefer someone like Fred Taylor as a RB3--not great, but solid, and you know what you're getting. I'd feel more comfortable with someone like Smith as a 4th or 5th back.

 

[gbill2004]

Thoughts on Kevin Smith now, with Rudi in town??