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Player Spotlight: L.J. Smith (1 Viewer)

Jason Wood

Zoo York
2008 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. Last year, we published more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters. This year will be no different.

Each week we will post a list of players to be discussed. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discussion expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: L.J. Smith, TE, Philadelphia Eagles

Player Page Link: L.J. Smith Player Page

Each article will include:

Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads
FBG Projections
Consensus Member ProjectionsThe Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

Focus commentary on the player in question, and your expectations for said player
Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
To be included in the final synopsis and consensus outlook, you MUST provide projections for the playerProjections should include (at a minimum):

For QBs: Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDsNow let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

 
This will be my fifth year having him on my dynasty team. Theoretically, he's a good TE2 to have based upon his aggregate numbers, however he seems to start hot and cool off in my experience with him. He gets more TD's and yards early in the year than late. If he's a starter for you, you can live with that, but if you're counting on him to be a backup, and often that's later in the year, then that fade may be occurring right when you need him.

 
If he's healthy, I see no reason not to expect a 50/600/5 season - borderline top 10 numbers. I think he represents great value for where he's likely to be drafted.

 
Kris Wilson is probably just as athletically gifted as Smith, and hopefully will show better hands. I think his presence takes enough of the edge off of Smith's numbers to leave him undrafted in a lot of leagues, instead in the group of TEs who are first off the waiver wire when you need a bye week/injury fill-in.

 
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Kris Wilson is probably just as athletically gifted as Smith, and hopefully will show better hands. I think his presence takes enough of the edge off of Smith's numbers to leave him undrafted in a lot of leagues, instead in the group of TEs who are first off the waiver wire when you need a bye week/injury fill-in, but
IMO Either Wilson replaces Smith on merit or by injury(seems to happen often with Smith) but by the end of the year, Wilson has been starting.
 
Kris Wilson is probably just as athletically gifted as Smith, and hopefully will show better hands. I think his presence takes enough of the edge off of Smith's numbers to leave him undrafted in a lot of leagues, instead in the group of TEs who are first off the waiver wire when you need a bye week/injury fill-in, but
IMO Either Wilson replaces Smith on merit or by injury(seems to happen often with Smith) but by the end of the year, Wilson has been starting.
Kris Wilson seriously? Didnt they franchise LJ? LJ smith is an injury concern but when he and Dono are on the field they seem to connect well. But getting them both healthy is the issue. Border line top 8 TE that you dont have to spend a top 8 pick on
 
Has shown flashes, but between his and McNabb's injuries hasnt been able to put it all together. I'd expect more of the same this year.

40 receptions 400 yards 4 td's

 
Kris Wilson is probably just as athletically gifted as Smith, and hopefully will show better hands. I think his presence takes enough of the edge off of Smith's numbers to leave him undrafted in a lot of leagues, instead in the group of TEs who are first off the waiver wire when you need a bye week/injury fill-in, but
IMO Either Wilson replaces Smith on merit or by injury(seems to happen often with Smith) but by the end of the year, Wilson has been starting.
Kris Wilson seriously? Didnt they franchise LJ? LJ smith is an injury concern but when he and Dono are on the field they seem to connect well. But getting them both healthy is the issue. Border line top 8 TE that you dont have to spend a top 8 pick on
Do you think it's a fair prediction to say Wilson will start a game in 08?Other than that-Smith is a good TE however, I really like Wilson and think the Iggles will find a way to use him. I'm not sure(hedging towards not) if he could beat out Smith but, he'll get some good opportunities in 08 IMO. Even if he has to play a FB role to find time like he did in KC. I guess that summarizes what I think of him-He's talented enough for his talent to inadvertently demand Reid finds a way to get him on the field.
 
Kris Wilson is probably just as athletically gifted as Smith, and hopefully will show better hands. I think his presence takes enough of the edge off of Smith's numbers to leave him undrafted in a lot of leagues, instead in the group of TEs who are first off the waiver wire when you need a bye week/injury fill-in, but
IMO Either Wilson replaces Smith on merit or by injury(seems to happen often with Smith) but by the end of the year, Wilson has been starting.
Kris Wilson seriously? Didnt they franchise LJ? LJ smith is an injury concern but when he and Dono are on the field they seem to connect well. But getting them both healthy is the issue. Border line top 8 TE that you dont have to spend a top 8 pick on
Do you think it's a fair prediction to say Wilson will start a game in 08?Other than that-Smith is a good TE however, I really like Wilson and think the Iggles will find a way to use him. I'm not sure(hedging towards not) if he could beat out Smith but, he'll get some good opportunities in 08 IMO. Even if he has to play a FB role to find time like he did in KC. I guess that summarizes what I think of him-He's talented enough for his talent to inadvertently demand Reid finds a way to get him on the field.
:yes: ...and take some targets away from Smith.
 
LJ Smith really seems to have lost nearly all respect on these boards. I understand the reasoning why. Coming off an injury plagued year, and he's consistently been on the injury list. Plus the Eagles signed Kris Wilson. Not a great TE, but a player that many feel has been underutilized by the Chiefs.

Taking a look at the bright side for Smith reveals some interesting things though IMO.

In 2005-2006 LJ was the 8th best TE in the league, averaging 646 yards and 4 TDs, with 93 Targets/season. Those were his 3rd and 4th seasons in the NFL. His fifth season was ruined by knee and groin injuries. During those 3rd and 4th seasons his YPC was a very respectable 11.65 (similar to Gonzo, Witten, Cooley and Winslow), and he caught 111 of 187 targets (59%).

By comparison, Kris Wilson's stats over the last THREE years were: 116 yards and 1 TD with 26 Targets/season. His YPC was 8.51 and he caught 41 of 78 targets (52%).

LJ Smith is far from a slam dunk to have a good season. It's just not nearly as unlikely as some would make it seem. The Eagles still don't have a great option at WR, and their best player is a 29 year old RB with his own injury issues. LJ is also in a contract year.

 
LJ Smith really seems to have lost nearly all respect on these boards. I understand the reasoning why. Coming off an injury plagued year, and he's consistently been on the injury list. Plus the Eagles signed Kris Wilson. Not a great TE, but a player that many feel has been underutilized by the Chiefs.Taking a look at the bright side for Smith reveals some interesting things though IMO. In 2005-2006 LJ was the 8th best TE in the league, averaging 646 yards and 4 TDs, with 93 Targets/season. Those were his 3rd and 4th seasons in the NFL. His fifth season was ruined by knee and groin injuries. During those 3rd and 4th seasons his YPC was a very respectable 11.65 (similar to Gonzo, Witten, Cooley and Winslow), and he caught 111 of 187 targets (59%).By comparison, Kris Wilson's stats over the last THREE years were: 116 yards and 1 TD with 26 Targets/season. His YPC was 8.51 and he caught 41 of 78 targets (52%).LJ Smith is far from a slam dunk to have a good season. It's just not nearly as unlikely as some would make it seem. The Eagles still don't have a great option at WR, and their best player is a 29 year old RB with his own injury issues. LJ is also in a contract year.
His stock is low and he'll be a decent redraft bargain. A lot of people went into last year's contract year hoping he'd put up good numbers as an audition for a new contract, but that was derailed by injury. He falls withing that (roughly) TE8-20 range that has relatively little differentiation between its members, though his upside and likely production are better than a lot of guys in that group.
 
LJ Smith really seems to have lost nearly all respect on these boards. I understand the reasoning why. Coming off an injury plagued year, and he's consistently been on the injury list. Plus the Eagles signed Kris Wilson. Not a great TE, but a player that many feel has been underutilized by the Chiefs.Taking a look at the bright side for Smith reveals some interesting things though IMO. In 2005-2006 LJ was the 8th best TE in the league, averaging 646 yards and 4 TDs, with 93 Targets/season. Those were his 3rd and 4th seasons in the NFL. His fifth season was ruined by knee and groin injuries. During those 3rd and 4th seasons his YPC was a very respectable 11.65 (similar to Gonzo, Witten, Cooley and Winslow), and he caught 111 of 187 targets (59%).By comparison, Kris Wilson's stats over the last THREE years were: 116 yards and 1 TD with 26 Targets/season. His YPC was 8.51 and he caught 41 of 78 targets (52%).LJ Smith is far from a slam dunk to have a good season. It's just not nearly as unlikely as some would make it seem. The Eagles still don't have a great option at WR, and their best player is a 29 year old RB with his own injury issues. LJ is also in a contract year.
might wanna doublecheck those Wilson stats
 
Bri said:
Kitrick Taylor said:
LJ Smith really seems to have lost nearly all respect on these boards. I understand the reasoning why. Coming off an injury plagued year, and he's consistently been on the injury list. Plus the Eagles signed Kris Wilson. Not a great TE, but a player that many feel has been underutilized by the Chiefs.Taking a look at the bright side for Smith reveals some interesting things though IMO. In 2005-2006 LJ was the 8th best TE in the league, averaging 646 yards and 4 TDs, with 93 Targets/season. Those were his 3rd and 4th seasons in the NFL. His fifth season was ruined by knee and groin injuries. During those 3rd and 4th seasons his YPC was a very respectable 11.65 (similar to Gonzo, Witten, Cooley and Winslow), and he caught 111 of 187 targets (59%).By comparison, Kris Wilson's stats over the last THREE years were: 116 yards and 1 TD with 26 Targets/season. His YPC was 8.51 and he caught 41 of 78 targets (52%).LJ Smith is far from a slam dunk to have a good season. It's just not nearly as unlikely as some would make it seem. The Eagles still don't have a great option at WR, and their best player is a 29 year old RB with his own injury issues. LJ is also in a contract year.
might wanna doublecheck those Wilson stats
They are right. Maybe I just phrased it poorly. 3 year totals: 345 Yards, 4 TDs 78 Targets. avg season 116yards/1.3TDs/26targets.
 
I've always appreciated L.J. Smith as a player. I'm throwing last season out and expect him to return close to form, near a top 10 TE in fantasy football. Put me down for:

605 yards receiving, 47 receptions and 5 td's.

 
I don't think there's been a harder Eagles fan on this board toward L.J. Smith than me, and yet I'm stunned at how far people have overshot the mark on the guy. He's was a top 10 fantasy TE in back to back seasons before his hernia injury and, the decision to franchise him was a strategic one. The Eagles front office isn't 100% convinced Smith is worthy of a long-term deal, but they're not at all resigned to the fact that he's not either. He'll be expected to be a MAJOR part of this passing offense. As to Wilson, while I like him, I find it telling that Andy Reid singled out every single free agent move we made in his annual WIP interview except for Wilson. And then he talked about each of the TEs on the roster EXCEPT for Wilson. I think Wilson MAY replace Scobel and/or Celek at times, but he's not eating into Smith's touches unless Smith gets hurt.

 
It's been more than a week since my last post and as I go back to re-read this thread I'm stunned at not only the discounting of Smith's value; but the misplaced value people are assigning Kris Wilson of all people. Smith is going to get a TON of targets as long as he's healthy; that's really not up to interpretation. Wilson MIGHT see some work as an H-back in certain packages but he's going to earn his keep on special teams unless Celek and/or Schobel get banged up early in training camp.

 
I agree with J Wood that LJ Smith looks like great value in 08. prior to last year's injury plagued season, he had missed only one game in his five year career. Not sure why he has the injury tag on him. He also comes off of consecutive 9th place TE finishes in 05 and 06. And the Eagles did not pick up solid WRs this past off-season to take his targets.

He basically got a do-over for his contract year and I think that he takes advantage of it. He presents very nice value where you can draft him.

LJ Smith 65 catches 700 yards 10.8 ypc and 6 TDs

 
It's been more than a week since my last post and as I go back to re-read this thread I'm stunned at not only the discounting of Smith's value; but the misplaced value people are assigning Kris Wilson of all people. Smith is going to get a TON of targets as long as he's healthy; that's really not up to interpretation. Wilson MIGHT see some work as an H-back in certain packages but he's going to earn his keep on special teams unless Celek and/or Schobel get banged up early in training camp.
Wilson Full-Time TENo Doubt About It: Wilson's a TE

Wilson was happy to be there, despite the direction the barometer was taking. He is returning full time to tight end, his natural position, after shuttling between that spot, fullback and H-back with the Chiefs.

''It is nice,'' he said, ''to be able to focus on one thing. Even though I'm focused on one thing, there's still a learning curve here, because of the differences in the offenses. I need this week.''
He was useful enough in the passing game to get 49 targets last year in KC, and I think he's good enough to merit even more attention in a better offense in Philly. The Eagles saw enough in him to sign him to a three year deal. I think he's better than Celek or Schobel and will get more looks than either got last year.How many targets is a TON? Smith's career high of 107 from 2005 still would have only been 4th on the Eagles last year behind Curtis, Westbrook, and Brown. Since Chad Lewis declined, the Eagles have not had two legitimate receiving threats at TE. Now they do, and I expect McNabb to make good use of both of them, which can't be a good thing for Smith's numbers.

 
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It's been more than a week since my last post and as I go back to re-read this thread I'm stunned at not only the discounting of Smith's value; but the misplaced value people are assigning Kris Wilson of all people. Smith is going to get a TON of targets as long as he's healthy; that's really not up to interpretation. Wilson MIGHT see some work as an H-back in certain packages but he's going to earn his keep on special teams unless Celek and/or Schobel get banged up early in training camp.
Wilson Full-Time TENo Doubt About It: Wilson's a TE

Wilson was happy to be there, despite the direction the barometer was taking. He is returning full time to tight end, his natural position, after shuttling between that spot, fullback and H-back with the Chiefs.

''It is nice,'' he said, ''to be able to focus on one thing. Even though I'm focused on one thing, there's still a learning curve here, because of the differences in the offenses. I need this week.''
He was useful enough in the passing game to get 49 targets last year in KC, and I think he's good enough to merit even more attention in a better offense in Philly. The Eagles saw enough in him to sign him to a three year deal. I think he's better than Celek or Schobel and will get more looks than either got last year.How many targets is a TON? Smith's career high of 107 from 2005 still would have only been 4th on the Eagles last year behind Curtis, Westbrook, and Brown. Since Chad Lewis declined, the Eagles have not had two legitimate receiving threats at TE. Now they do, and I expect McNabb to make good use of both of them, which can't be a good thing for Smith's numbers.
Bloom you didn't really just post two articles in defense of Kris Wilson, did you? :lmao: The first says that he's a tight end, SHOCKER. The second is an op ed piece guessing that Wilson sticks ON THE ROSTER and that Schobel goes. Neither even hint at Wilson being any kind of threat to L.J. Smith; nor should they. Again, if I'm going to listen to any kind of rhetoric from May, early June...it's going to be from the head coaches mouth. He went out of his way to praise L.J. Smith and how vital he is to the red zone offense; then went on to spend a few minutes talking about Celek and Schobel. He didn't mention Kris Wilson once in a 90 minute interview on WIP. That's not to say Wilson won't earn his way into some PT and I certainly HOPE he's better than Matt Schobel for God's sake. But this idea that he's going to steal touches from Smith or even better displace him just belies the facts of the situation IMHO.
 
YR TM G TRG REC YD Y/R TD FPT RANK 2003 PHI 15 41 27 321 11.9 1 38 27 2004 PHI 16 45 34 377 11.1 5 68 13 2005 PHI 16 107 61 682 11.2 3 86 9 2006 PHI 16 80 50 611 12.2 5 91 9 2007 PHI 10 44 22 236 10.7 1 30 39LJ Smith improved steadily in each of his first four years before the 2007 preseason. He had an off year after missing the entire preseason due to groin surgery to deal with a sports hernia. He played early in the season, sat out a month, came back in for a couple months, then missed the rest of the season. In the offseason, the team brought in the backup TE from another team. The Eagles, not wanting to lose him, used the franchise tag to keep him from leaving, meaning Smith is again in a contract year. The major knocks brought up against him in this thread are his groin, the fact that they brought in Wilson, and the fact that he tends to fade late in the season. His groin has had more than a year to heal since his surgery. While it's true that his numbers declined slightly in the second halves of 2005 and 2006, both swoons coincided fairly well with McNabb hanging up his cleats for the season. And while I can understand why someone would fear competition from Wilson, the team used the franchise tag on Smith, so they clearly intend to start him. Sure, Wilson may be on the field on occasion, but he could also give Smith additional motivation this offseason. I don't see Wilson's arrival as a substantial negative.

I see him this year about the same way I saw him last year - a low end TE1. The difference is that this year, you can get him several rounds later, and there are several other guys with similar ability out there. I'd happily pair him with mid/low end guys who have the potential to be special, like Vernon Davis, Eric Johnson, Jeremy Shockey, Todd Heap, or Ben Watson.

 
It's been more than a week since my last post and as I go back to re-read this thread I'm stunned at not only the discounting of Smith's value; but the misplaced value people are assigning Kris Wilson of all people. Smith is going to get a TON of targets as long as he's healthy; that's really not up to interpretation. Wilson MIGHT see some work as an H-back in certain packages but he's going to earn his keep on special teams unless Celek and/or Schobel get banged up early in training camp.
Wilson Full-Time TENo Doubt About It: Wilson's a TE

Wilson was happy to be there, despite the direction the barometer was taking. He is returning full time to tight end, his natural position, after shuttling between that spot, fullback and H-back with the Chiefs.

''It is nice,'' he said, ''to be able to focus on one thing. Even though I'm focused on one thing, there's still a learning curve here, because of the differences in the offenses. I need this week.''
He was useful enough in the passing game to get 49 targets last year in KC, and I think he's good enough to merit even more attention in a better offense in Philly. The Eagles saw enough in him to sign him to a three year deal. I think he's better than Celek or Schobel and will get more looks than either got last year.How many targets is a TON? Smith's career high of 107 from 2005 still would have only been 4th on the Eagles last year behind Curtis, Westbrook, and Brown. Since Chad Lewis declined, the Eagles have not had two legitimate receiving threats at TE. Now they do, and I expect McNabb to make good use of both of them, which can't be a good thing for Smith's numbers.
Bloom you didn't really just post two articles in defense of Kris Wilson, did you? :lmao: The first says that he's a tight end, SHOCKER. The second is an op ed piece guessing that Wilson sticks ON THE ROSTER and that Schobel goes.
Just posted them to clear up his role with the team - full time TE, not H-back. My opinion about Wilson is mostly formed on watching him in KC - he always looked like a pretty fluid athletic receiver for a guy who was also hardnosed enough to lead block. He looked good getting into downfield routes and was not exclusively used around the line of scrimmage. I think Wilson was underutilized in KC and would have gotten more looks if he had not been drafted onto a team with a hall of fame TE in his prime. He was just one of those guys that made you think "he's good enough to do more" when you watched him at KC. Wilson was a second round pick, it's not like was an end of roster afterthought for KC. I wouldn't write him off so quickly.
 
It's been more than a week since my last post and as I go back to re-read this thread I'm stunned at not only the discounting of Smith's value; but the misplaced value people are assigning Kris Wilson of all people. Smith is going to get a TON of targets as long as he's healthy; that's really not up to interpretation. Wilson MIGHT see some work as an H-back in certain packages but he's going to earn his keep on special teams unless Celek and/or Schobel get banged up early in training camp.
Wilson Full-Time TENo Doubt About It: Wilson's a TE

Wilson was happy to be there, despite the direction the barometer was taking. He is returning full time to tight end, his natural position, after shuttling between that spot, fullback and H-back with the Chiefs.

''It is nice,'' he said, ''to be able to focus on one thing. Even though I'm focused on one thing, there's still a learning curve here, because of the differences in the offenses. I need this week.''
He was useful enough in the passing game to get 49 targets last year in KC, and I think he's good enough to merit even more attention in a better offense in Philly. The Eagles saw enough in him to sign him to a three year deal. I think he's better than Celek or Schobel and will get more looks than either got last year.How many targets is a TON? Smith's career high of 107 from 2005 still would have only been 4th on the Eagles last year behind Curtis, Westbrook, and Brown. Since Chad Lewis declined, the Eagles have not had two legitimate receiving threats at TE. Now they do, and I expect McNabb to make good use of both of them, which can't be a good thing for Smith's numbers.
Bloom you didn't really just post two articles in defense of Kris Wilson, did you? :) The first says that he's a tight end, SHOCKER. The second is an op ed piece guessing that Wilson sticks ON THE ROSTER and that Schobel goes.
Just posted them to clear up his role with the team - full time TE, not H-back. My opinion about Wilson is mostly formed on watching him in KC - he always looked like a pretty fluid athletic receiver for a guy who was also hardnosed enough to lead block. He looked good getting into downfield routes and was not exclusively used around the line of scrimmage. I think Wilson was underutilized in KC and would have gotten more looks if he had not been drafted onto a team with a hall of fame TE in his prime. He was just one of those guys that made you think "he's good enough to do more" when you watched him at KC. Wilson was a second round pick, it's not like was an end of roster afterthought for KC. I wouldn't write him off so quickly.
No one is writing him off. I still say L.J. Smith is playing his last season in Philadelphia; in which case Wilson would be the odds on favorite to start next year if things pan out the way I hope.As to the talk that Wilson looks the part; I find it hard to believe anyone that isn't a diehard Chiefs homer could really have a sense of the guy. He's averaged 8.2 yards per catch; more in line with a decent RB than a tight end. The guy wasn't used in deep pass patterns or in motion too often; so we really have no reason to know if his athleticism translates to the field or not. In his career, he has a whopping THREE receptions for 20+ yards, with a career long of 31 yards. This guy hasn't seen the field enough, particularly as a tight end, to have confidence in his abilities.

The good news is that a) he got a 3-year deal, b) L.J. Smith could be gone in 2009, and c) Schobel and Celek are plodders themselves.

 
Don't sleep on LJ Smith. I picked him up in the 15th round of a 14 team PPR league as the TE19. He will be the steal at TE this year and will return to top 10 form. Last night he was a focal point for McNabb catching 3 for 44 yards. Additionally, he was targeted twice in the endzone.

65 Catches, 735 yards, 5 TDS

 
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Don't sleep on LJ Smith. I picked him up in the 15th round of a 14 team PPR league as the TE19. He will be the steal at TE this year and will return to top 10 form. Last night he was a focal point for McNabb catching 3 for 44 yards. Additionally, he was targeted twice in the endzone.65 Catches, 735 yards, 5 TDS
Last night was the best he ever looked IMHO
 

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