Player Spotlight: Ladell Betts (1 Viewer)

[Jason Wood]

2007 Player Spotlight Series

Over the course of the offseason, we will be evaluating a multitude of players at every fantasy position. One such way we go about that is through the Player Spotlight series. Think of the Spotlights as a permanent record on some of the more intriguing players for the upcoming season. Each Spotlight will be featured in an article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Ladell Betts, RB, Washington Redskins

Player Page Link: Ladell Betts Player Page

Each article will include:

Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads
FBG Projections
Consensus Member ProjectionsThe Rules

In order for this thread to provide sustainable value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

Focus commentary on the player in question, and your expectations for said player
Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
To be included in the final synopsis and consensus outlook, you MUST provide projections for the playerProjections should include (at a minimum):

For QBs: Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDsBest of Luck and ENJOY!

 

[dgreen]

Assuming Portis is healthy, my predictions are:

125/525/2

30/240/0

EVERYTHING changes if Portis misses significant time, but I don't see the need right now to project that.

 

[nygiants56]

Betts runs for a MINIMUM

232 carries, 1090 yards, 5 tds.

at worst, this is a RBBC situation...

I don't think Portis returns to form. His knee problems will constantly flare up, he'll be last minute scratches before games , he'll constantly wind up on the injury report.

Also, Gibbs is likely to retire ( or get fired) at year's end, Al Saunders should be the likely candidate to take over. he loathes Portis, and Betts is his guy..how much faith does he put in Betts this season? does he petition Gibbs to let him use whichever RB he wants? Either way, Gibbs and Saunders might just go with the hot hand, or with what works. Right now, Betts works, Portis doesn't. They had a good thing late last season, and perhaps they want to keep that momentum going, wihtout a flake like Portis, and his antics, getting in the way..

I'm not even sure they wouldn't trade Portis if GB or Oakland called...

if Betts starts from Day 1,

300 carries, 1410 yards, 4.7 per carry, 14 total tds.

 

[dgreen]

Betts runs for a MINIMUM232 carries, 1090 yards, 5 tds.if Betts starts from Day 1, 300 carries, 1410 yards, 4.7 per carry, 14 total tds.

So Betts, who averages 1 TD every 61 touches, is going to score 9 TDs in those extra 68 rushes?

at worst, this is a RBBC situation...I don't think Portis returns to form. His knee problems will constantly flare up, he'll be last minute scratches before games , he'll constantly wind up on the injury report.Also, Gibbs is likely to retire ( or get fired) at year's end, Al Saunders should be the likely candidate to take over. he loathes Portis, and Betts is his guy..how much faith does he put in Betts this season? does he petition Gibbs to let him use whichever RB he wants? Either way, Gibbs and Saunders might just go with the hot hand, or with what works. Right now, Betts works, Portis doesn't. They had a good thing late last season, and perhaps they want to keep that momentum going, wihtout a flake like Portis, and his antics, getting in the way..I'm not even sure they wouldn't trade Portis if GB or Oakland called...

Do you have any links to back up any of this?

 

[shadyridr]

Nothing more than a handcuff at this time. Of course if Portis gets hurt he would be a great starting option. I see at most 10 carries a game right now with a few TDs and receptions. Still he is a must draft if you draft Portis.

120 att, 550 yds, 3 tds, 20 rec, 150 yds, 0 td

 

[Harjiran]

Nygiants56, your analysis is a bit off and I'm guessing this is due to your rather obvious bias against the Redskins. Gibbs will not be fired by Dan Snyder, who has shown nothing but respect and awe for the man he idolized as a boy rooting for the Skins during their glory years of the 80s. It's possible but not likely that Gibbs will retire after the season, since he has stated repeatedly that he intends to finish out his contract, and I believe he has 2 years to go. I have never heard or read any indication that Al Saunders "loathes" Portis or even favors Betts. As solid as Betts is, Clinton Portis is one of the best backs in the league and I'm sure Al recognizes this just like everyone else. This will not be a RBBC if Portis is healthy and I think his leg issues and alleged "antics" are being overblow by the media. I expect a fine year from Portis and I'm glad he's being undervalued.

I think dgreen's projections for Betts are dead on.

 

[LawFitz]

Nothing more than a handcuff at this time. Of course if Portis gets hurt he would be a great starting option. I see at most 10 carries a game right now with a few TDs and receptions. Still he is a must draft if you draft Portis.120 att, 550 yds, 3 tds, 20 rec, 150 yds, 0 td

Ha ha ha!!!Portis is made of glass, gentlemen. He's a stud when healthy, but he will go down again this year as usual. CP = a young version of Fragile Freddy. And when he does, look out for Mr. Betts down the stretch. Just remember guys, we are talking about the Al Saunders RB here! Ladell Betts/Clinton Portis '07 = Larry Johnson/Priest Holmes '04 and '05. Betts will be winning fantasy championships for a lot of teams that draft him late this year onto rosters that are loaded elsewhere. In most leagues, including the ones I play in, it's all about which team is hot down the stretch.Projecting his stats for the season is not a worthwhile exercise for me b/c of my expectations for CP injury. I'd look at it instead on a stats per game basis.With Portis:8 carries, 50 yds4 catches, 40 yds.5 TDsWithout Portis:25 carries, 125 yds6 catches, 60 yds1.33 TDsThe key is finding a cheap, decent RB2 while waiting for the Betts egg to hatch this season. Jamal Lewis, anyone? How about Warrick Dunn? Dare I mention the name LaMont Jordan? Maybe Betts himself can even be an okay RB2 if he can get enough catches during the early part of the season while splitting with Portis.

 

[dgreen]

With Portis:8 carries, 50 yds4 catches, 40 yds.5 TDsWithout Portis:25 carries, 125 yds6 catches, 60 yds1.33 TDs

TDs seem WAY too high in both situations.

 

[LawFitz]

So Betts, who averages 1 TD every 61 touches, is going to score 9 TDs in those extra 68 rushes?

You're looking at the stats through a vacuum my friend. Don't forget that a majority of his career was spent w/non-Al Saunders teams. It's a whole different ball game now for Betts. If Portis goes down, Betts is a top 5 RB PPG.Remember Priest Holmes pre-KC. Good RB. But when Dickie V and Chicken Saunders got a hold of him, you began to see the fireworks between the dramatic OLine improvement and the tremendously greater opps as a receiver in addition to running duties.Al is now headed into his second year in Wash. You saw a taste of what Betts is capable of when CP goes down late last season. This is a prime case of when it IS appropriate to extrapolate partial season stats. If/when CP goes down, Betts is $$$ in the bank.

 

[Block]

Alot of these pojections are fit for the kiddie pool, not the shark pool.

Portis=Fragile Fred? This is the same Portis whi missed 3 games in his first 4 seasons, and averaged over 1500 yards in those years?

Ladell Betts=Larry Johnson? The same Betts that is two years older than Portis?

Ladell Betts is Gibbs' guy? The same Betts who was on the roster when Gibbs arrived, who was around when the Redskins traded Champ Bailey and a 2nd round pick for Portis?

Sheesh.

 

[dgreen]

So Betts, who averages 1 TD every 61 touches, is going to score 9 TDs in those extra 68 rushes?

You're looking at the stats through a vacuum my friend. Don't forget that a majority of his career was spent w/non-Al Saunders teams. It's a whole different ball game now for Betts. If Portis goes down, Betts is a top 5 RB PPG.Remember Priest Holmes pre-KC. Good RB. But when Dickie V and Chicken Saunders got a hold of him, you began to see the fireworks between the dramatic OLine improvement and the tremendously greater opps as a receiver in addition to running duties.Al is now headed into his second year in Wash. You saw a taste of what Betts is capable of when CP goes down late last season. This is a prime case of when it IS appropriate to extrapolate partial season stats. If/when CP goes down, Betts is $$$ in the bank.

Betts' career TDs per touch is 1:61. In the final 7 games last year, his TDs per touch was 1:62. He is what he is.I agree Saunders' offense in year two will be better, but part of that is because of what Portis brings.

 

[sholditch]

I think IF BETTS STARTS that Chester Taylor gives us a pretty good idea of what we can expect. Betts has been a backup his entire career for some reason. I think he made enough noise to average about 7-10 cpg this year, and given two really productive games with Portis out, we could expect:

190 for 836 and 4/ 52 for 416 and 3

not bad for a backup RB

 

[5-ish Finkle]

Saunders' offense could support two productive runners if both stay healthy, really. Having said that....

Betts getting 35% of the rushing workload(60% to Portis, 5% to "other"):

170-180 carries, 730-775 yards, 3 TDs. 35-40 catches, 300-350, 3 TDs

Top-notch situational back, with the potential to be much more if Portis can't go. However, if Portis stays upright all year Betts isn't going to sniff the near-1600 total yards he had a year ago.

You have to feel good about him producing if called upon though, so as mentioned, if you draft Portis you pretty much MUST draft Betts.

For the record, if Portis is truly 100% when the season hits I can just as easily see the Skins ramping his carries up to 65% or more of the rushing touches. Betts' output takes a nosedive if that happens.

 

[redman]

Betts runs for a MINIMUM

232 carries, 1090 yards, 5 tds.

if Betts starts from Day 1,

300 carries, 1410 yards, 4.7 per carry, 14 total tds.

So Betts, who averages 1 TD every 61 touches, is going to score 9 TDs in those extra 68 rushes?

at worst, this is a RBBC situation...

I don't think Portis returns to form. His knee problems will constantly flare up, he'll be last minute scratches before games , he'll constantly wind up on the injury report.

Also, Gibbs is likely to retire ( or get fired) at year's end, Al Saunders should be the likely candidate to take over. he loathes Portis, and Betts is his guy..how much faith does he put in Betts this season? does he petition Gibbs to let him use whichever RB he wants? Either way, Gibbs and Saunders might just go with the hot hand, or with what works. Right now, Betts works, Portis doesn't. They had a good thing late last season, and perhaps they want to keep that momentum going, wihtout a flake like Portis, and his antics, getting in the way..

I'm not even sure they wouldn't trade Portis if GB or Oakland called...

Do you have any links to back up any of this?

Here's his source.

 

[dgreen]

Betts runs for a MINIMUM

232 carries, 1090 yards, 5 tds.

if Betts starts from Day 1,

300 carries, 1410 yards, 4.7 per carry, 14 total tds.

So Betts, who averages 1 TD every 61 touches, is going to score 9 TDs in those extra 68 rushes?

at worst, this is a RBBC situation...

I don't think Portis returns to form. His knee problems will constantly flare up, he'll be last minute scratches before games , he'll constantly wind up on the injury report.

Also, Gibbs is likely to retire ( or get fired) at year's end, Al Saunders should be the likely candidate to take over. he loathes Portis, and Betts is his guy..how much faith does he put in Betts this season? does he petition Gibbs to let him use whichever RB he wants? Either way, Gibbs and Saunders might just go with the hot hand, or with what works. Right now, Betts works, Portis doesn't. They had a good thing late last season, and perhaps they want to keep that momentum going, wihtout a flake like Portis, and his antics, getting in the way..

I'm not even sure they wouldn't trade Portis if GB or Oakland called...

Do you have any links to back up any of this?

Here's his source.

 

[LawFitz]

Betts' career TDs per touch is 1:61. In the final 7 games last year, his TDs per touch was 1:62. He is what he is.

Not sure where you're getting your stats, but according to my calculations, the last seven games he avg'd 1:47 touches. That said, I think the Skins offense is only getting better... Getting their feet under them with Saunders, a 2nd yr QB and a limited playbook b/c of Campbell.The key for me is how much the line improved last year and how much Betts seemed to fit better into the offense as a rusher and receiver. Portis seems less patient and more reliant on his physical prowess. Don't get me wrong, he could go nuts and completely dominate but in the end I think he goes down and Betts takes over as a statistical beast under the 2nd year Al Saunders offense.I guess I am projecting a lot more TDs for this offense, but again it's my faith in Chicken Saunders to get the job done. Obviously Jason Campbell is a huge wild card here.

 

[dgreen]

Betts' career TDs per touch is 1:61. In the final 7 games last year, his TDs per touch was 1:62. He is what he is.

Not sure where you're getting your stats, but according to my calculations, the last seven games he avg'd 1:47 touches.

Oops, missed his receiving TD.

That said, I think the Skins offense is only getting better... Getting their feet under them with Saunders, a 2nd yr QB and a limited playbook b/c of Campbell.

I agree, I just think predicting Portis-like numbers for Betts is a big mistake.

The key for me is how much the line improved last year and how much Betts seemed to fit better into the offense as a rusher and receiver.

I think the line improvement is the REASON Betts seemed to fit better. They had a shift in offensive philosophy after Portis went down and Campbell stepped in and the season was lost. Betts benefited from that, big time.

Portis seems less patient and more reliant on his physical prowess.

Less patient = more decisive?Portis has MUCH better vision than Betts.

 

[-jb-]

128 carries, 553 yards, 1TD

50 receptions, 401 yards, 1TD

 

[Tau837]

Without Portis:25 carries, 125 yds6 catches, 60 yds1.33 TDs

So if Portis tears his ACL in preseason, you think Betts will have 400 carries, 2000 rushing yards, 96 catches, 960 receiving yards, and 21 TDs?

 

[kevinallen]

Alot of these pojections are fit for the kiddie pool, not the shark pool.Portis=Fragile Fred? This is the same Portis whi missed 3 games in his first 4 seasons, and averaged over 1500 yards in those years?Ladell Betts=Larry Johnson? The same Betts that is two years older than Portis?Ladell Betts is Gibbs' guy? The same Betts who was on the roster when Gibbs arrived, who was around when the Redskins traded Champ Bailey and a 2nd round pick for Portis?Sheesh.

Dont forget that it's the same Betts that after Portis' shoulder injury in the pre-season, the Redskins felt so good about him carrying the load that they went and traded for TJ Duckett.

 

[amphibianbri]

Betts will get more than his 90 carry average in the two seasons prior to 2006, but I really don't see him getting enough to really be worthy unless Portis gets hurt. I'm going to assume Portis plays 14 games (sometimes injuries can lead to a game or two missed the next year) which I think would give Betts about 150 carries. Hence prediction:

150 carries for 630 yards 3 TD, 26 catches for 235 yards 1 TD

If Portis does go down early though, I think he could come near last year's totals.

 

[LawFitz]

Without Portis:25 carries, 125 yds6 catches, 60 yds1.33 TDs

So if Portis tears his ACL in preseason, you think Betts will have 400 carries, 2000 rushing yards, 96 catches, 960 receiving yards, and 21 TDs?

When you extrapolate that PPG projection over 16 games that does seem excessive. But I'm sticking with my claim that Betts is a top 5 RB on a PPG basis after Portis gets hurt again this year.I'll take him in the 8th-10th rounds and park him on my bench in anticipation. The CP owner in my league can kiss my ###.

 

[NCJetsFan]

For everyone making projections - how many Total Carries are you predicting for the Skins? That is the real question here, imho.

Is it an uptick in number of carries due to Campbell or does it remain close to the 448 average we have seen these last 2 years? If you are predicting an uptick (which would make sense), I think it is a completely unwise move to expect Portis to grab 300 touches and return to form once again.

With exception to Wood, I feel the FBG projections are very low for Betts right now. There will be 150-180 carries for Betts to have and if you are in a PPR league, there is no reason to expect anything less than 35 receptions.

There is absolutely no reason for the Skins to run Portis in the ground folks. This is a very real 1A-1B RBBC.

Betts is more than just a backup and will give you an excellent flex to rely on.

 

[fatness]

Al Saunders should be the likely candidate to take over. he loathes Portis,

Do you have a link or something to support that? A ouija board? An odd cloud formation? Anything?

 

[cscmtp]

there are a few REALLY stupid posts in this thread. Betts is 1/4 the RB Portis is. Anyone that actually watches the Skins, and understands football, knows that.

 

[LawFitz]

there are a few REALLY stupid posts in this thread. Betts is 1/4 the RB Portis is. Anyone that actually watches the Skins, and understands football, knows that.

I won't dispute that CP >> LB, but I don't think he'll stay healthy. And I think Betts will flourish in the Al Saunders system when he gets the opportunity. He's a good at everything, not great at anything type who Saunders will make into a great statistical RB.

 

[dgreen]

He's a good at everything, not great at anything type who Saunders will make into a great statistical RB.

He's not that good at blocking. For a RB, he's great at receiving.

 

[dgreen]

For everyone making projections - how many Total Carries are you predicting for the Skins? That is the real question here, imho.

Here's my current Skins predictions.

 

[Kleck.]

Rushing: 110-455-2

Receiving: 25-270-1

 

[el centro]

Betts runs for a MINIMUM

232 carries, 1090 yards, 5 tds.

if Betts starts from Day 1,

300 carries, 1410 yards, 4.7 per carry, 14 total tds.

So Betts, who averages 1 TD every 61 touches, is going to score 9 TDs in those extra 68 rushes?

at worst, this is a RBBC situation...

I don't think Portis returns to form. His knee problems will constantly flare up, he'll be last minute scratches before games , he'll constantly wind up on the injury report.

Also, Gibbs is likely to retire ( or get fired) at year's end, Al Saunders should be the likely candidate to take over. he loathes Portis, and Betts is his guy..how much faith does he put in Betts this season? does he petition Gibbs to let him use whichever RB he wants? Either way, Gibbs and Saunders might just go with the hot hand, or with what works. Right now, Betts works, Portis doesn't. They had a good thing late last season, and perhaps they want to keep that momentum going, wihtout a flake like Portis, and his antics, getting in the way..

I'm not even sure they wouldn't trade Portis if GB or Oakland called...

Do you have any links to back up any of this?

Here's his source.

Dude, I think that's my plumber!

 

[LawFitz]

He's a good at everything, not great at anything type who Saunders will make into a great statistical RB.

He's not that good at blocking. For a RB, he's great at receiving.

I've never heard anyone say he's not a good blocker, nor have I ever seen him badly miss a block when watching games. But I'm not a Skins homer so I can't say that I've seen every snap.All I know is I like the Saunders RB, especially one that has already shown he can excel within the scheme. And I also would rather pay an 8th rounder for Betts as my RB3 or 4, than a 2nd rounder for Portis as my RB1 or 2. I think Betts has as good if not a better chance than Portis of getting the majority of Saunders' snaps in the second half of this season.Portis >> Betts, but is also Mr. Glass. Just like Laurence Maroney. Just like Cadillac Williams. All these RBs run way harder and way bigger than their size. It's a long season and my leagues use playoff formats, so I try to avoid these types generally.

 

[Kip Dynamite]

Betts runs for a MINIMUM

232 carries, 1090 yards, 5 tds.

at worst, this is a RBBC situation...

I don't think Portis returns to form. His knee problems will constantly flare up, he'll be last minute scratches before games , he'll constantly wind up on the injury report.

Also, Gibbs is likely to retire ( or get fired) at year's end, Al Saunders should be the likely candidate to take over. he loathes Portis, and Betts is his guy..how much faith does he put in Betts this season? does he petition Gibbs to let him use whichever RB he wants? Either way, Gibbs and Saunders might just go with the hot hand, or with what works. Right now, Betts works, Portis doesn't. They had a good thing late last season, and perhaps they want to keep that momentum going, wihtout a flake like Portis, and his antics, getting in the way..

I'm not even sure they wouldn't trade Portis if GB or Oakland called...

if Betts starts from Day 1,

300 carries, 1410 yards, 4.7 per carry, 14 total tds.

I hope as a Betts owner but knowing my luck he won't even see the field unless its special teams.

 

[dgreen]

He's a good at everything, not great at anything type who Saunders will make into a great statistical RB.

He's not that good at blocking. For a RB, he's great at receiving.

I've never heard anyone say he's not a good blocker, nor have I ever seen him badly miss a block when watching games. But I'm not a Skins homer so I can't say that I've seen every snap.

I'm probably overly harsh on his blocking because of one play (go to 4:11) and because Portis is soooooo good at blocking. But, most Skins fans who have watched every play will tell you blocking is probably the weakest part of his game.

 

[Block]

He's a good at everything, not great at anything type who Saunders will make into a great statistical RB.

He's not that good at blocking. For a RB, he's great at receiving.

I've never heard anyone say he's not a good blocker, nor have I ever seen him badly miss a block when watching games. But I'm not a Skins homer so I can't say that I've seen every snap.All I know is I like the Saunders RB, especially one that has already shown he can excel within the scheme. And I also would rather pay an 8th rounder for Betts as my RB3 or 4, than a 2nd rounder for Portis as my RB1 or 2. I think Betts has as good if not a better chance than Portis of getting the majority of Saunders' snaps in the second half of this season.Portis >> Betts, but is also Mr. Glass. Just like Laurence Maroney. Just like Cadillac Williams. All these RBs run way harder and way bigger than their size. It's a long season and my leagues use playoff formats, so I try to avoid these types generally.

This post exemplifies your lack of knowledge about the two players.If Portis is Mr. Glass (shatters), Betts is Mr. Balloon (pops).

 

[dgreen]

Portis and Betts entered the league together in 2002. Portis (68) has played in four more games than Betts (64). But...of course Portis is the fragile one.

 

[LawFitz]

Portis and Betts entered the league together in 2002. Portis (68) has played in four more games than Betts (64). But...of course Portis is the fragile one.

Difference is I won't be drafting Betts in Rd 2.

 

[dgreen]

Portis and Betts entered the league together in 2002. Portis (68) has played in four more games than Betts (64). But...of course Portis is the fragile one.

Difference is I won't be drafting Betts in Rd 2.

Of course not. Nobody will because Portis>>>>>>Betts.

 

[LawFitz]

Portis and Betts entered the league together in 2002. Portis (68) has played in four more games than Betts (64). But...of course Portis is the fragile one.

Difference is I won't be drafting Betts in Rd 2.

Of course not. Nobody will because Portis>>>>>>Betts.

No, the main reason is because Portis is the starter right now. If CP were shipped to another team tomorrow, Betts would be a 2nd round (at worst 3rd round) pick.If it were based on talent alone Portis would be a top 5 pick. But people are discounting his injury risk. And IMO, they aren't discounting it enough.

 

[Carter_Can_Fly]

Portis and Betts entered the league together in 2002. Portis (68) has played in four more games than Betts (64). But...of course Portis is the fragile one.

Difference is I won't be drafting Betts in Rd 2.

Of course not. Nobody will because Portis>>>>>>Betts.

No, the main reason is because Portis is the starter right now. If CP were shipped to another team tomorrow, Betts would be a 2nd round (at worst 3rd round) pick.If it were based on talent alone Portis would be a top 5 pick. But people are discounting his injury risk. And IMO, they aren't discounting it enough.

You have absolutely no clue besides flat out assumptions how much of any injury risk Portis is going forward. I am sick of hearing people predicting injury for Portis going forward. If you predict Betts getting more touches and dropping Portis in your rankings for that reason then so be it, but this dropping Portis due to injury concerns is getting blown out of proportion.Betts is a very good back up running back, but at this point he is just that a back up running back.

 

[Sidewinder16]

If it were based on talent alone Portis would be a top 5 pick. But people are discounting his injury risk. And IMO, they aren't discounting it enough.

Maybe because you've yet to give a reason for anyone to not discount it and ignored every reason given to discount it.Betts has missed games due to injury in his career, too (see post #35). He's missed them as recently as 2005 with groin and knee injuries.

Portis missed games last year with shoulder and hand injuries. His knee tendinitis had him miss off season OTAs, after which, he participated in mini-camp.

Since you've yet to do so, can you explain why you're convinced Portis will miss more time due to injury than Betts will this year?

 

[ImTheScientist]

Alot of these pojections are fit for the kiddie pool, not the shark pool.

Portis=Fragile Fred? This is the same Portis whi missed 3 games in his first 4 seasons, and averaged over 1500 yards in those years?

Ladell Betts=Larry Johnson? The same Betts that is two years older than Portis?

Ladell Betts is Gibbs' guy? The same Betts who was on the roster when Gibbs arrived, who was around when the Redskins traded Champ Bailey and a 2nd round pick for Portis?

Sheesh.

 

[Block]

Portis and Betts entered the league together in 2002. Portis (68) has played in four more games than Betts (64). But...of course Portis is the fragile one.

Also keep in mind the load both have carried. Portis has been healthier with significantly greater carries than Betts has been with less.

 

[cscmtp]

as someone who's watched just about every Skins game over the last decade or two, yes, Betts is an average, if not poor blocker and fumbles way too much. He's the ultimate backup, but he's not the starter in DC, and never will be.

 

[LawFitz]

can you explain why you're convinced Portis will miss more time due to injury than Betts will this year?

Portis >> Betts which means early on in the season Portis gets 65-70% of the touches. Problem is I need my 2nd round pick (Portis) to be there for me at weeks 15 and 16.My prediction is that there's a better than 50/50 chance that during those two weeks of the season, Betts, not CP will be getting the Al Saunders offensive snaps given that Clinton will be given the much heavier workload earlier on in the season and that he runs way hard for his size. CP loves to lay a hit and it tends to cost him in health. He's been on a tear but last year was a sign of more to come IMO. Brilliant performances and constant injuries. From nicks to sprains to major ones.Early in the season, CP will go off and Saunders will run him into the ground and then plug in Betts once CP breaks down.It's an issue of relative value. Why spend on 2nd rd pick on one 50 shot, when you can spend an 8th round or later pick on the other one?It reminds me of when Saunders brought up Priest Holmes and later Larry Johnson. The Johnson analogy is especially similar. He was the inferior back up to the high mileage "more talented" starter. Don't forget how many were dissing LJ before he ascended to fantasy heights in the Dickie V/ Al Saunders system.Teams that pirated Johnson away from the Priest Holmes owners during the draft were rewarded handsomely, not just one year but twice in a row. It's awfully nice to have 1st round production from a late round pick.

 

[Da Guru]

Betts looked pretty strong last year and seems to fit the Saunders mold.

I am going to try to avoid both Betts and Portis due to the unknown.

 

[dgreen]

Portis and Betts entered the league together in 2002. Portis (68) has played in four more games than Betts (64). But...of course Portis is the fragile one.

Difference is I won't be drafting Betts in Rd 2.

Of course not. Nobody will because Portis>>>>>>Betts.

No, the main reason is because Portis is the starter right now. If CP were shipped to another team tomorrow, Betts would be a 2nd round (at worst 3rd round) pick.

Doubtful. If Portis wasn't on the team, they'd look for someone to share carries with Betts because Betts isn't anything special.

 

[Sidewinder16]

can you explain why you're convinced Portis will miss more time due to injury than Betts will this year?

Portis >> Betts which means early on in the season Portis gets 65-70% of the touches. Problem is I need my 2nd round pick (Portis) to be there for me at weeks 15 and 16.My prediction is that there's a better than 50/50 chance that during those two weeks of the season, Betts, not CP will be getting the Al Saunders offensive snaps given that Clinton will be given the much heavier workload earlier on in the season and that he runs way hard for his size. CP loves to lay a hit and it tends to cost him in health. He's been on a tear but last year was a sign of more to come IMO. Brilliant performances and constant injuries. From nicks to sprains to major ones.

If you're basing your prediction on the notion that Portis is constantly injured I'd say you've been given faulty information (although, if it's based on the "he'll play hurt" comments, I'd say you've misunderstood). To reiterate, he had two freak injuries last season, only one of which "ended his season" (the 'Skins season was all but over when he broke his hand; putting him on IR before week 11 insured he'd be back to full health for this season). Prior to that, he missed 4 games in 4 years, all while averaging 1482 rushing yards and 11 rushing TDs. Betts himself can't boast a 4 year stretch with that much health. You've yet to comment on why Betts, who prior to last season had missed more games than Portis with far less playing time than Portis, is suddenly a poster child for consistent health. Out of curiosity, how low are you on guys like Shaun Alexander, Frank Gore, Willis McGahee and Edgerrin James? They've all had serious knee/foot injuries. Wouldn't that be an even bigger sign of more injuries to come for them? Are you equally as high on their backups as you are on Betts?

Early in the season, CP will go off and Saunders will run him into the ground and then plug in Betts once CP breaks down.

I think it was mentioned in the Portis Spotlight but, Saunders can't run Portis into the ground unless Portis chooses to be run into the ground. Portis (like many #1 RBs) gets to dictate when he comes out for a break and when he stays in. I've seen nothing from Portis in the past that even remotely indicates that he wants to "run himself into the ground".

It reminds me of when Saunders brought up Priest Holmes and later Larry Johnson. The Johnson analogy is especially similar. He was the inferior back up to the high mileage "more talented" starter. Don't forget how many were dissing LJ before he ascended to fantasy heights in the Dickie V/ Al Saunders system.

Teams that pirated Johnson away from the Priest Holmes owners during the draft were rewarded handsomely, not just one year but twice in a row. It's awfully nice to have 1st round production from a late round pick.

The only legitimate similarity between the '05 Chiefs and the '07 Redskins is that Saunders is OC for the two. After that, the situations couldn't be more dissimilar. Drawing comparisons between the two (and especially between Holmes' career ending neck injury and any possible future Portis injury, or between the abilities of Larry Johnson and Ladell Betts) is a poor foundation for predicting future events, IMO.Making some amount of injury assumptions is part of predicting player performance, IMO. I don't think anyone would have a legitimate beef if you wanted to predict Portis missing 2, 3 or even 4 games for his stats (and therefore, for Betts' stats). But, simply assuming a player will miss half a season, or more, just because he did so last year is ignoring why he missed half a season and what has happened/is happening since then. You're welcome to do so, but don't expect many people to jump on that ship with you.

 

[LawFitz]

Out of curiosity, how low are you on guys like Shaun Alexander, Frank Gore, Willis McGahee and Edgerrin James? They've all had serious knee/foot injuries. Wouldn't that be an even bigger sign of more injuries to come for them? Are you equally as high on their backups as you are on Betts?

I don't like any of those guys as an early round pick. I've got Portis ahead of SA, WM and EJ, but behind Gore. And I rode Gore to a championship last year as a late round pick.I'm not high on any of their backups. None of them is as good as Betts and none of them plays for Al Saunders.

I've seen nothing from Portis in the past that even remotely indicates that he wants to "run himself into the ground".

That's odd b/c I have a lot. One of the reasons why I love watching Portis is b/c he plays with reckless abandon. He runs MUCH bigger than his size. He'll lower a shoulder instead of side stepping a lot more than say a LaDanian (who by the way is 20 lbs heavier).Add to that the fact that CP is a showman. He loves the spotlight and will play even when tired or hurt leading to even more injury risk.

don't expect many people to jump on that ship with you.

That's fair. I don't expect too many others on the Betts bandwagon. I've been lonesome on other bandwagons in the past. But IMO he's the solid #2 RB on an offense that's going to get A LOT of RB points and he plays behind a starter that I believe has a better than average shot of getting hurt due to past breakdowns, overuse and reckless style. And I can get him in rds 8-10 (over maybe even later) rather than round 2 or maybe even 1.

 

[Sidewinder16]

I've seen nothing from Portis in the past that even remotely indicates that he wants to "run himself into the ground".

That's odd b/c I have a lot. One of the reasons why I love watching Portis is b/c he plays with reckless abandon. He runs MUCH bigger than his size. He'll lower a shoulder instead of side stepping a lot more than say a LaDanian (who by the way is 20 lbs heavier).Add to that the fact that CP is a showman. He loves the spotlight and will play even when tired or hurt leading to even more injury risk.

Portis is no wuss, that's for sure. But he doesn't play tired and hurt any more than any other #1 stud RB.Also, Portis is listed by the Redskins at 5'11", 223 lbs (Betts is listed at 5'11", 225). LT is listed by the Chargers at 5'10", 221lbs. I have no idea why you think Portis is a small RB. He may have been in college, or even the first couple years of his career, but he's not now. He's pretty "standard" sized.

 

[LawFitz]

Also, Portis is listed by the Redskins at 5'11", 223 lbs (Betts is listed at 5'11", 225). LT is listed by the Chargers at 5'10", 221lbs. I have no idea why you think Portis is a small RB. He may have been in college, or even the first couple years of his career, but he's not now. He's pretty "standard" sized.

Either the Redskins site is oversizing their star RB or he's put on some serious weight in the last few years.His first two years in Den he would come into the season between 205 and 210 and would eventually play as low as 195 as the season wore on. Portis is not built naturally big, but has been putting on weight as a workout warrior in recent years. I do recall him saying that he wanted put on weight to accommodate the inside tough running style of Gibbs after his first season in Wash.