Player Spotlight: Larry Fitzgerald (1 Viewer)

[Jason Wood]

2008 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. Last year, we published more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters. This year will be no different.

Each week we will post a list of players to be discussed. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discussion expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Larry Fitzgerald, WR, Arizona Cardinals

Player Page Link: Larry Fitzgerald Player Page

Each article will include:

Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads
FBG Projections
Consensus Member ProjectionsThe Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

Focus commentary on the player in question, and your expectations for said player
Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
To be included in the final synopsis and consensus outlook, you MUST provide projections for the playerProjections should include (at a minimum):

For QBs: Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDsNow let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

 

[a_troll00]

The question here is: who will be throwing the ball this season?

Leinart was the #10 pick in the draft a few years back. The Cardinals clearly want Leinart to be the man, even though Warner is clearly the better QB. Here's all you need to know about Fitz and Leinart - take a look at last year's game recaps.

Week 1 - Fitzgerald also had a hard time getting open against the 49ers' secondary. He ended the night with only 20 yards on three receptions; all were quickly thrown with defenders on him. Of his nine targets, two were thrown deep as he tried to stretch the field to no avail.

Week 2 - At first, he and Boldin were being targeted equally, but in the second half, Leinart locked onto Fitzgerald a bit more. His only big gain (40 yards) came in the first half, and two of his three second half catches were of the extremely short variety. Considering how dominant he looked on some of his catches, it is surprising that he was used that way in the latter stages of the game.

Week 3 - Fitzgerald was the second most targeted Arizona player, but didn't seem to get on track until Warner got in the game. The left-handed Leinart predominantly kept the ball on the left side and middle of the field which caused some frustration for Fitzgerald. The looks he did receive from Leinart were off target, and a couple of them were even interceptable. Warner's entrance in the game immediately changed Fitzgerald's fortunes, as all of his production can be attributed to the second string quarterback. His first catch of the second half was a 27 yard hookup that Ravens' cornerback Corey Ivy ripped from his hands during the tackle.

Week 4 - Fitzgerald was the Cardinals' leading receiver with 123 yards on 11 catches. He was more in touch with Kurt Warner than with Leinart, although he did catch a nice 38 yard reception from Leinart in the fourth quarter. Fitzgerald was utilized mainly on crossing routes. He was held without a touchdown. Fitzgerald did have a turnover when the Pittsburgh defense stripped the ball from him after a catch.

Week 5 - Fitzgerald picked up the slack on offense for teammate WR Anquan Boldin being out for a second consecutive week by responding with another big game. He started out strong by catching a 27 yard pass by making a nice diving catch. The play could have went for much more had QB Matt Leinart's pass been more accurate and not forced Fitzgerald to make a diving catch. He would catch a big pass on fourth down to extend a drive late in the first half and he would come back two plays later and catch a 34 yard pass, just missing a touchdown by being tackled on the one yard line. He had a great first half catching six passes for 108 yards, with ten targets.

Fitzgerald's numbers weren't quite as good in the second half as the Cardinals offense struggled to sustain drives, but he did have three more catches for 28 yards, including a seven yard touchdown pass toward the end of the game.

Fitzgerald is projected by many to be a top 5 WR. IMO though, he is not worth such a high draft pick if Leinart is the QB. If you honestly believe Warner will be the QB next season, by all means pick him.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

96 receptions, 1,300 yds, 10 TD

Stud!!!

 

[Tanner9919]

probably on par wth T.O and Reggie Wayne as the best 3 WRs in the game..

you cant go wrong with any one of them..Fitz plays against some lousy pass defenses...

same as last year, 100/1409/10

 

[mozzy84]

93/1350/13

 

[The Man with the Plan]

You want to say that he's a stud. That he's a lock for being one of the top 3-5 receivers in fantasy. And then you remember that Matt Leinart is the quarterback. I can't imagine that he has that long of a leash this season with the Cardinals considering themselves contenders in the NFC. Either Leinart will finally play well or they'll bring in Warner to clean up after him. Then again there's the worst-case scenario in that Matt Leinart plays just well enough to win games but not well enough to utilize Larry Fitzgerald in the best way possible.

I shouldn't feel this way about Larry Fitzgerald. He's one of the best wide receivers in the game and he isn't even 25 years old yet. As long as he has the question mark at quarterback you never feel quite safe that he's going to put up great numbers.

 

[footballman_696969]

I don't care who is throwing the rock for Arizona this year. Fitzgerald is an uber stud with uber talent. I have him ranked 4th (in PPR) behind Moss, T.O, & Wayne. He should be a top flight WR for years to come.

96/1325/10

 

[Yitbos69]

98/1350/12

 

[David Yudkin]

The question here is: who will be throwing the ball this season?

Leinart was the #10 pick in the draft a few years back. The Cardinals clearly want Leinart to be the man, even though Warner is clearly the better QB. Here's all you need to know about Fitz and Leinart - take a look at last year's game recaps.

Week 1 - Fitzgerald also had a hard time getting open against the 49ers' secondary. He ended the night with only 20 yards on three receptions; all were quickly thrown with defenders on him. Of his nine targets, two were thrown deep as he tried to stretch the field to no avail.

Week 2 - At first, he and Boldin were being targeted equally, but in the second half, Leinart locked onto Fitzgerald a bit more. His only big gain (40 yards) came in the first half, and two of his three second half catches were of the extremely short variety. Considering how dominant he looked on some of his catches, it is surprising that he was used that way in the latter stages of the game.

Week 3 - Fitzgerald was the second most targeted Arizona player, but didn't seem to get on track until Warner got in the game. The left-handed Leinart predominantly kept the ball on the left side and middle of the field which caused some frustration for Fitzgerald. The looks he did receive from Leinart were off target, and a couple of them were even interceptable. Warner's entrance in the game immediately changed Fitzgerald's fortunes, as all of his production can be attributed to the second string quarterback. His first catch of the second half was a 27 yard hookup that Ravens' cornerback Corey Ivy ripped from his hands during the tackle.

Week 4 - Fitzgerald was the Cardinals' leading receiver with 123 yards on 11 catches. He was more in touch with Kurt Warner than with Leinart, although he did catch a nice 38 yard reception from Leinart in the fourth quarter. Fitzgerald was utilized mainly on crossing routes. He was held without a touchdown. Fitzgerald did have a turnover when the Pittsburgh defense stripped the ball from him after a catch.

Week 5 - Fitzgerald picked up the slack on offense for teammate WR Anquan Boldin being out for a second consecutive week by responding with another big game. He started out strong by catching a 27 yard pass by making a nice diving catch. The play could have went for much more had QB Matt Leinart's pass been more accurate and not forced Fitzgerald to make a diving catch. He would catch a big pass on fourth down to extend a drive late in the first half and he would come back two plays later and catch a 34 yard pass, just missing a touchdown by being tackled on the one yard line. He had a great first half catching six passes for 108 yards, with ten targets.

Fitzgerald's numbers weren't quite as good in the second half as the Cardinals offense struggled to sustain drives, but he did have three more catches for 28 yards, including a seven yard touchdown pass toward the end of the game.

Fitzgerald is projected by many to be a top 5 WR. IMO though, he is not worth such a high draft pick if Leinart is the QB. If you honestly believe Warner will be the QB next season, by all means pick him.

I haven't re-run the math, but heading into last year Fitz was 25-30% LESS PRODUCTIVE over his career with any QB other than Warner. I don't think it was as dramatic a factor last year (but would have to really do some digging to decipher how he did with Leinart vs Warner).

 

[Winning IS Everything]

Fitzgerald is super talented, and early reports say he is even more aggressive this year. I think whoever the QB is will look Fitzgerald's way, especially in the redzone. Look for Top 5 type numbers this year.

105 - 1475 - 12

 

[eric rymer]

98/1350/12

pretty much what I had in mind. regardless of who the QB is, I think he'll be productive.

 

[Fallerjw]

90 catches

1250 yards

8 TDs

 

[Burning Sensation]

I think he finishes #4 behind AJ, Moss and Wayne in 2008. Uncertainty at the QB position makes me a bit leary, but other than that, the guy is as sure of a thing as there is.

98, 1340, 11

 

[moderated]

Most complete WR in the NFL. Was highest rated WR EVER coming out of college and has done nothing to make me think he wasn't deserving of that high accolade so far.

112 catches/1560 yards/12 TD's

I have him at #2 behind Moss.

 

[Da Guru]

If Warner is the QB Fitz will put up Top 3-5 numbers.

If Leinart is the QB I would put Fitz in the 7-10 area.

 

[JMon348]

Best WR in the NFL(not in fantasy terms though)

92rec 1350yds 16tds(these stats might make him the best in fantasy too)

 

[David Yudkin]

This is another case of (IMO) people needing to map out the entire Arizona offense in order to justfy their numbers for Fitz. I say this because:

- Boldin is still around and is not chopped liver

- Edge is still around and this is a coaching staff that would like to run the ball

- If people are predicting big numbers for Fitz, are they lowering expectations any for Boldin and Edge?

- If people are predicting big years for ALL of these guys, we have really missed the boat on how well the Cardinals will do this year and need to adjust the projections for Leinart and Warner accordingly

- If Arizona has a high octance offense, are they a playoff contender in 2008?

 

[Ministry of Pain]

This is another case of (IMO) people needing to map out the entire Arizona offense in order to justfy their numbers for Fitz. I say this because:- Boldin is still around and is not chopped liver- Edge is still around and this is a coaching staff that would like to run the ball- If people are predicting big numbers for Fitz, are they lowering expectations any for Boldin and Edge?- If people are predicting big years for ALL of these guys, we have really missed the boat on how well the Cardinals will do this year and need to adjust the projections for Leinart and Warner accordingly- If Arizona has a high octance offense, are they a playoff contender in 2008?

Arizona down the stretch last season score 20-24+ points in almost every game the 2nd half of the season. I think it is reasonable to expect 90-100 catches form Fitz, 75-80+ from Boldin, and another painful plodding 1,000 yds rushing from Edge. Leinart and Warner split the QB time as neither can be relied on to make it thru the enitre season. This year it will be Leinart that looks all world but will never be able to be on the field for 3 straight games...so in 10 games he will have like 2,500 yds and 15 TD, owners will drool but he just won't be able to stay healthy.

 

[David Yudkin]

This is another case of (IMO) people needing to map out the entire Arizona offense in order to justfy their numbers for Fitz. I say this because:- Boldin is still around and is not chopped liver- Edge is still around and this is a coaching staff that would like to run the ball- If people are predicting big numbers for Fitz, are they lowering expectations any for Boldin and Edge?- If people are predicting big years for ALL of these guys, we have really missed the boat on how well the Cardinals will do this year and need to adjust the projections for Leinart and Warner accordingly- If Arizona has a high octance offense, are they a playoff contender in 2008?

Arizona down the stretch last season score 20-24+ points in almost every game the 2nd half of the season. I think it is reasonable to expect 90-100 catches form Fitz, 75-80+ from Boldin, and another painful plodding 1,000 yds rushing from Edge. Leinart and Warner split the QB time as neither can be relied on to make it thru the enitre season. This year it will be Leinart that looks all world but will never be able to be on the field for 3 straight games...so in 10 games he will have like 2,500 yds and 15 TD, owners will drool but he just won't be able to stay healthy.

Since you brought it up, I went and looked at the numbers for the Cards' last 8 games last season:30.9 ppg, 88 rushing yds/gm, 0.375 rushing TD/gm, 295 passing yds/gm, 2.875 passing TD/gm (5-3 record)(Arizona also added 5 defensive TD in those 8 games)Here's what Dodds has projected for this season:21.3 ppg, 89 rushing yds/gm, 0.625 rushing TD/gm, 246 passing yds/gm, 1.5 passing TD/gmAs I said earlier, if people really see the Cardinals offense hitting on all cylinders like they did at the end of the season last year, we will be pretty far off projections wise.

 

[Winning IS Everything]

This is another case of (IMO) people needing to map out the entire Arizona offense in order to justfy their numbers for Fitz. I say this because:- Boldin is still around and is not chopped liver- Edge is still around and this is a coaching staff that would like to run the ball- If people are predicting big numbers for Fitz, are they lowering expectations any for Boldin and Edge?- If people are predicting big years for ALL of these guys, we have really missed the boat on how well the Cardinals will do this year and need to adjust the projections for Leinart and Warner accordingly- If Arizona has a high octance offense, are they a playoff contender in 2008?

1. I think Arizona would like to run, but will not have great success at it.2. I see Boldin as the clear 2nd fiddle in the passing game this year.3. I think Arizona plays from behind a lot this year.4. I think Fitz just takes it to a new level this year, talent and maturity wise.Those are the reason I see Fitz the way I do. I would project Boldin for about 70-80 rec, about 1000 yards and 5-6 TD.

 

[David Yudkin]

This is another case of (IMO) people needing to map out the entire Arizona offense in order to justfy their numbers for Fitz. I say this because:- Boldin is still around and is not chopped liver- Edge is still around and this is a coaching staff that would like to run the ball- If people are predicting big numbers for Fitz, are they lowering expectations any for Boldin and Edge?- If people are predicting big years for ALL of these guys, we have really missed the boat on how well the Cardinals will do this year and need to adjust the projections for Leinart and Warner accordingly- If Arizona has a high octance offense, are they a playoff contender in 2008?

1. I think Arizona would like to run, but will not have great success at it.2. I see Boldin as the clear 2nd fiddle in the passing game this year.3. I think Arizona plays from behind a lot this year.4. I think Fitz just takes it to a new level this year, talent and maturity wise.Those are the reason I see Fitz the way I do. I would project Boldin for about 70-80 rec, about 1000 yards and 5-6 TD.

Who knows how things will turn out, but over their careers, here's what each guy would project to over a 16 game season taking an average per game output times 16 . . .Boldin: 97-1284-7Fitzgerald: 88-1212-9

 

[rzrback77]

Larry Fitzgerald has been awesome as an MFL WR from the get-go as he finished WR30 as a rookie. He followed that up with WR2 in his second year, then fell off to WR24 as he missed three games in 06. He finished as WR5 last season even missing one game.

As others have stated, with Leinart the success has not been as good as with Warner. My thought for this year is if Leinart struggles early, then Warner will take over sooner. I believe that Lienart has a much shorter 08 leash. So, this means less concern over the downturn with Lienart.

Fitzgerald just got paid and it seems to me that the standard NFL procedure is to slack off some with the money. Fitzgerald though is known as a motivated self-starter and a hard worker so I don't think that will happen with him.

I also believe that both Boldin and Fitzgerald can have big years as the other WRs are not as capable and the RBs are not a focus in the passing game. I think that it is reasonable to project big years for both WRs even while knowing that the Cardinals will also look to pound the running game at times. And if Edge goes down, they both could have career years.

If you want him though, you have to grab early as his ADP is WR5 and 20 overall. He still could be a bargain even at that steep price. I like him, AJ, Moss, Owens, and Wayne for the top five.

Larry Fitzgerald 165 targets 104 catches (63.0%) for 1399 yards 13.5 ypc and 11 TDs

 

[bagarner]

Fitzgerald is a safe bet for 100 receptions, 1400 yards, and 10 TDs. So that makes it real easy to pencil him in as your #5 WR, just as footballguys has. But the idea of Fantasy Football is to find the right value spots so that you can pass on Randy Moss at the 10th spot and pick up someone who may match his totals at the 20th spot. In order for Larry Fitzgerald to do this, he needs more touchdowns. So let's investigate touchdowns for Larry Fitzgerald.

We know he has a tremendous work ethic, and he is an ideal red-zone target. It seems that it is his lack of blinding speed and spectacular open field ability after the catch that have prevented him from getting the huge touchdown totals of which Randy Moss, Braylon Edwards, and Terrell Owens are capable. While he may be getting plenty of red-zone TDs, he is not the threat to score at any moment. Last year he had only one touchdown of more than 30 yards. Randy Moss had seven. In fact, Fitzgerald had only four total receptions of more than 30 yards, which is not at all an anomaly considering he has had exactly four such receptions of 30+ yards every year he has played. That's not an awful stat--it's more than Chad Johnson, Brandon Marshall. and Roddy White each had last year, to name a few. But the elite receivers normally have over ten such receptions in a year. Fitzgerald does not have elite speed, but does have height, great jump-ball ability, superb hands, and a knack for scoring. Arizona must increase its consistency in moving the ball down the field, in order to have more red-zone opportunities, which it did in the second half of the season. This is evident by the Cardinals averaging more than 30 points a game during the final 8 games, a stretch in which Fitzgerald dominated.

Let's look at Larry Fitzgerald's production in the second halves of seasons.

2005: Last eight games played--- 51 rec, 696 yards, 6 TDs

A full season projection would be 102 rec, 1392 yards, 12 TDs. Not too far from what we would pencil him in as. In fact he finished 05' with 100/1409/10

2006: Last six games played--- 36 rec, 500 yards, 4 TDs

A full season projection would be 96 rec, 1333 yards, 11 TDs. Once again, the typical Larry Fitzgerald season.

2007: Last seven games played--- 50 rec, 672 yards, 9 TDs (of his 10 total for the season)

A full season projection would be 114 rec, 1536 yards, 20 TDs. Now this is what we are looking for.

Perhaps the end of the last season was a marking of Larry Fitzgerald emergence as the player we all expect him to be. Of course a lot of factors go into a hot stretch, but a seven game sample size can serve as a pretty good indication. When looking at Fitzgerald's outstanding second half of the season TD totals in comparison to his first half (9 to 1) I was hoping that Fitz simply didn't play much better in the second halves of seasons, which the stats support that. But it's not as if Fitz played poorly in the first half of the season, he actually had 50 rec and 737 yards in the first eight games of the season. The lack of touchdowns can be attributed to Arizona's lack of scoring. Many insiders in the league have mentioned that Arizona is ready to break out and be an enforcer in the league, and if the offense can carry its second-half success to next year, Fitzgerald could score 15 or more TDs.

So here are just some stats. You can make the decision on Fitzgerald.

Clearly I favor the upside of Larry Fitgerald, so here's my projection line:

110 receptions, 1480 yards, 14 TDs. That makes him the second WR off my board behind Randy Moss.

 

[David Yudkin]

Fitzgerald is a safe bet for 100 receptions, 1400 yards, and 10 TDs. So that makes it real easy to pencil him in as your #5 WR, just as footballguys has. But the idea of Fantasy Football is to find the right value spots so that you can pass on Randy Moss at the 10th spot and pick up someone who may match his totals at the 20th spot. In order for Larry Fitzgerald to do this, he needs more touchdowns. So let's investigate touchdowns for Larry Fitzgerald.

We know he has a tremendous work ethic, and he is an ideal red-zone target. It seems that it is his lack of blinding speed and spectacular open field ability after the catch that have prevented him from getting the huge touchdown totals of which Randy Moss, Braylon Edwards, and Terrell Owens are capable. While he may be getting plenty of red-zone TDs, he is not the threat to score at any moment. Last year he had only one touchdown of more than 30 yards. Randy Moss had seven. In fact, Fitzgerald had only four total receptions of more than 30 yards, which is not at all an anomaly considering he has had exactly four such receptions of 30+ yards every year he has played. That's not an awful stat--it's more than Chad Johnson, Brandon Marshall. and Roddy White each had last year, to name a few. But the elite receivers normally have over ten such receptions in a year. Fitzgerald does not have elite speed, but does have height, great jump-ball ability, superb hands, and a knack for scoring. Arizona must increase its consistency in moving the ball down the field, in order to have more red-zone opportunities, which it did in the second half of the season. This is evident by the Cardinals averaging more than 30 points a game during the final 8 games, a stretch in which Fitzgerald dominated.

Let's look at Larry Fitzgerald's production in the second halves of seasons.

2005: Last eight games played--- 51 rec, 696 yards, 6 TDs

A full season projection would be 102 rec, 1392 yards, 12 TDs. Not too far from what we would pencil him in as. In fact he finished 05' with 100/1409/10

2006: Last six games played--- 36 rec, 500 yards, 4 TDs

A full season projection would be 96 rec, 1333 yards, 11 TDs. Once again, the typical Larry Fitzgerald season.

2007: Last seven games played--- 50 rec, 672 yards, 9 TDs (of his 10 total for the season)

A full season projection would be 114 rec, 1536 yards, 20 TDs. Now this is what we are looking for.

Perhaps the end of the last season was a marking of Larry Fitzgerald emergence as the player we all expect him to be. Of course a lot of factors go into a hot stretch, but a seven game sample size can serve as a pretty good indication. When looking at Fitzgerald's outstanding second half of the season TD totals in comparison to his first half (9 to 1) I was hoping that Fitz simply didn't play much better in the second halves of seasons, which the stats support that. But it's not as if Fitz played poorly in the first half of the season, he actually had 50 rec and 737 yards in the first eight games of the season. The lack of touchdowns can be attributed to Arizona's lack of scoring. Many insiders in the league have mentioned that Arizona is ready to break out and be an enforcer in the league, and if the offense can carry its second-half success to next year, Fitzgerald could score 15 or more TDs.

So here are just some stats. You can make the decision on Fitzgerald.

Clearly I favor the upside of Larry Fitgerald, so here's my projection line:

110 receptions, 1480 yards, 14 TDs. That makes him the second WR off my board behind Randy Moss.

2005 last 8 games played . . . 6 with Kurt Warner2006 last 6 games played . . . 3 with Kurt Warner

2007 last 7 games played . . . 7 with Kurt Warner

I'm going to go out on a limb here and suggest that it's not a coincidence that Fitzgerald did as well as he did . . . and it's because Warner was QB. His numbers in other games are still good, but they are not as jaw dropping as they've been with Warner.

Maybe Fitz kicks it up a notch this year with Leinart. Or maybe the coaching staff will go with Warner. But if I were a Fitz owner, either of those need to happen for him to rank in the Top 5, so it's not quite a slam dunk automatic that he will be ranked that high. The difference might only be Top 10 vs Top 5, but every point counts. I also don't think that it would deter me from drafting him, but it is something to monitor.

 

[Jon_Moore]

There's not alot to be said that hasn't already.

If Leinart is much worse than Warner--they'll put Warner in. One way or the other, this offense is going to go. Fitz will get his. Having an all-pro calliber receiver line up opposite him keeps him from seeing triple coverage. The running game has never been anything terrific since he's been there...and he's still gotten his. The defense has yet to really shut down opposing teams, so the Cards are going to pass it a million times

101 Receptions

1424 Yards

12 Tds

 

[The Jacket]

Not nearly as high on him as a player as some are, but obviously he's going to produce as a fantasy stud in that offense. Still, though, my expectations are lower than many here. His career has been up and down each year, and I'm leaning more towards a down year (although certainly not as low as 2006 or his rookie year). One area I really disagree is that I don't see 15+ TDs like some; he's just not that dominant a receiver from 30 yards and in, and he doesn't stretch the field enough to be catching lots of bombs. I'm not convinced he'll get a TD every other game, as I predict, but I can't deny the talent.

85 catches

1100 yards

8 TD

Very, very good. Just lower on my list than more than a couple other WRs.

 

[Dancing Bear]

There is no way that Fitzerald comes even close to a Top 20 WR if Matt Leinart is at QB.

Last year Fitzgerald averaged 13.6 ppg [WR 5] with Kurt Warner at QB and he averaged 3.6 ppg [WR 82] with Matt Leinart. Fitzgerald even averaged 8.0 ppg with Tim Rattay ...

Leinart cannot play the NFL game and he has had no additional reps at game-time speed to change anything.

I just hope that Warner gets the nod so that we can see some exciting Offense from Arizona.

 

[BigRed]

One area I really disagree is that I don't see 15+ TDs like some;

? Guess I missed those crack addict posts. Since he's never bettered 10 and the O hasn't changed much, more than about 12 if that sounds unlikely, and less wouldn't shock anyone (8 is probably the floor though). Still I like him if I can't get one of the Moss/Wayne-type picks, esp given PPR.