Player Spotlight: Laurence Maroney (1 Viewer)

[Armor & Sword]

Maroney is a beast and I love watching him run. Unfortunately he plays for the Patriots. Outside of Brady and Moss there will be no studs for NE this year in FF. Belichick likes to spread the ball around to many receivers, and to many RB's as well. I don't ever remember a Belichick Patriots offense producing a solid RB FF stud.

Corey Dillon?Antowain Smith?

They used Dillion as a workhorse. Same for Smith that one season. Then when Maroney came in he was taken out in the red zone and Dillion had a big number of TD's. Last season they went to a 3 headed attack because BB IMO does not feel Maroney is built to carry the ball over 250 times a year. Sammy Morris if he did not get hurt last year was actually out playing Maroney in some games. They love Kevin faulk as their 3rd down and 2 minute guy. They have a big RBBC. And next season they will find those same type of complimentry backs to replace Morris and Faulk. Maroney will never be the cowbell we all hope he can be as long as he plays in New England.

 

[David Yudkin]

Twitch -I don't care what you plug and play in terms of actual numbers, but the slots you are filling need to be accurate.For starters, in the BB/Brady era the Pats have averaged 1036 offensive plays per year. But they have also averaged 38 sacks allowed, leaving their usuable plays at 998 per season. You have them down for 1050, so that should be cut by at least 50 IMO.You have Brady down for 10 rushing attempts. NE has averaged 46 rushing attempts by QB. So in my universe you need to up the 10 to 45.As far as RB carries, NE has averaged 411 rushing attempts by RB. You have them down for 500. I would not go that high, but I guess that's your call.Passing wise, you have them projected at 540 attempts. That's the one thing that you listed that is fairly accurate in terms of historical trends, as they have averaged 541 passes a year. HOWEVER, I would say that does not account for the Randy Moss/Wes Welker factor and IMO given their roster they will be more predisposed to pass the ball more.Ratio wise, you have them at 500 running back rushing attempts to 540 passing attempts for a 48/52% ratio. Historically, they have averaged 411 RB rushing attempts to 541 passing attempts (a 43/57% ratio). And that does not account for the newly rejuvenated passing game. So IMO your ratio is off at least 5%.Certainly anything is possible, but I don't see the RBs getting almost 100 more attempts this year at the expense of nearly 65 completions.

I had a feeling I was pretty much being set up, but I went ahead and played along, even though I told you from the get go that Id not put a ton of thought into those #s. But pick 'em apart. Cut me some slack with the "In my universe" stuff, though. Lets stay above that type of lowly commentary. You either get the jist of my suggestions or you dont. They ran the ball at a 42.6% clip last year. It was ultimately unsuccessful. They ran the ball at a 50.6% clip in '04 when they last won a Superbowl. Im simply suggesting theyll run closer to that percentage the upcoming season. Youre suggesting Im trying to pull a rabbit out of my hat here. You can buy into the simple logic or resist it. But dont suggest such a simple adjustment in philosophy of about 5-6 more running plays rather than passes a game is some sort of monumental impossibility. Its really not that far of a stretch.

I'm not saying you are right or wrong, just trying to get things to be a little more accurate in terms of what to project. Projections are usually a giant pain in the rear end, which is why I generally don't do them because it's tough to cram everything and get them close to accurate. I wasn't setting you up for anything, only trying to get your approach to fit a model that is more grounded in usual trends. Let's make it easier so we don't haggle over the reality of the breakdowns . . .If you had to allocate 410 RB rushing attempts and 340 receptions (both of which are essentially the average output each year for NE), how would you allocate them (to which players and in what amounts) and what production would you give them (yardaged and TD)? (You can add in QB rushing numbers as it's own category.)I know you are saying that NE will go way more run and a lot less pass, but for now just use the 410 RB carry and 340 reception baseline. But let's start with that and we can then figure out if the team WERE to get to where you want them, how will the numbers change.

 

[rzrback77]

Why would the Patriots stop doing what worked so well for them last season?

Patriots game by game reviewGame 1 - 22 of 28 attempts for 297 pass yards with 3 TDs & 34 rushes for 131 yards with 1 TD Game 2 - 25 of 31 attempts for 279 pass yards with 3 TDs & 28 rushes for 138 yards with 1 TD Game 3 - 23 of 29 attempts for 311 pass yards with 4 TDs & 37 rushes for 175 yards with 1 TD Game 4 - 25 of 32 attempts for 231 pass yards with 3 TDs & 31 rushes for 151 yards with 1 TD Game 5 - 22 of 38 attempts for 265 pass yards with 3 TDs & 30 rushes for 124 yards with 0 TD The above rushing totals are for only running backs and do not include rushing attempts or yardage by WRs or QBs. The point is that the Patriots were very balanced through the first five games, except for the red zone TDS. This occurred even after Maroney was injured and missed games four and five. When Morris was injured in game six, they had only Faulk left. That is when the dependence on the passing game changed. Maroney came back in game seven, but did not get over 15 carries until game fifteen and the offense became more balanced down the stretch. I truly think that they changed out of necessity and will revert to much more balance in 08.

Those first few games had the Pats runing the ball 10-12 times in the 4th quarter to run out the clock. I suppose that could happen again if the Pats score as much as they did last year and the defense gave up as few points this year. However, IMO, both of those are certainly debatable.

just got aroung to checking on the above statement about running the ball to run out the clock. The following are 4th quarter stats for the Pats in the first six games:Game 1 - 6 passes and 15 runs TRUEGame 2 - 6 passes and 11 runs TRUEGame 3 - 7 passes and 8 runs falseGame 4 - 8 passes and 7 runs falseGame 5 - 12 passes and 11 runs falseMixed bag of results, but they passed as much as they ran EVEN IN THE 4TH QUARTER after Maroney was injured.

 

[twitch]

Twitch -I don't care what you plug and play in terms of actual numbers, but the slots you are filling need to be accurate.For starters, in the BB/Brady era the Pats have averaged 1036 offensive plays per year. But they have also averaged 38 sacks allowed, leaving their usuable plays at 998 per season. You have them down for 1050, so that should be cut by at least 50 IMO.You have Brady down for 10 rushing attempts. NE has averaged 46 rushing attempts by QB. So in my universe you need to up the 10 to 45.As far as RB carries, NE has averaged 411 rushing attempts by RB. You have them down for 500. I would not go that high, but I guess that's your call.Passing wise, you have them projected at 540 attempts. That's the one thing that you listed that is fairly accurate in terms of historical trends, as they have averaged 541 passes a year. HOWEVER, I would say that does not account for the Randy Moss/Wes Welker factor and IMO given their roster they will be more predisposed to pass the ball more.Ratio wise, you have them at 500 running back rushing attempts to 540 passing attempts for a 48/52% ratio. Historically, they have averaged 411 RB rushing attempts to 541 passing attempts (a 43/57% ratio). And that does not account for the newly rejuvenated passing game. So IMO your ratio is off at least 5%.Certainly anything is possible, but I don't see the RBs getting almost 100 more attempts this year at the expense of nearly 65 completions.

I had a feeling I was pretty much being set up, but I went ahead and played along, even though I told you from the get go that Id not put a ton of thought into those #s. But pick 'em apart. Cut me some slack with the "In my universe" stuff, though. Lets stay above that type of lowly commentary. You either get the jist of my suggestions or you dont. They ran the ball at a 42.6% clip last year. It was ultimately unsuccessful. They ran the ball at a 50.6% clip in '04 when they last won a Superbowl. Im simply suggesting theyll run closer to that percentage the upcoming season. Youre suggesting Im trying to pull a rabbit out of my hat here. You can buy into the simple logic or resist it. But dont suggest such a simple adjustment in philosophy of about 5-6 more running plays rather than passes a game is some sort of monumental impossibility. Its really not that far of a stretch.

I'm not saying you are right or wrong, just trying to get things to be a little more accurate in terms of what to project. Projections are usually a giant pain in the rear end, which is why I generally don't do them because it's tough to cram everything and get them close to accurate. I wasn't setting you up for anything, only trying to get your approach to fit a model that is more grounded in usual trends. Let's make it easier so we don't haggle over the reality of the breakdowns . . .If you had to allocate 410 RB rushing attempts and 340 receptions (both of which are essentially the average output each year for NE), how would you allocate them (to which players and in what amounts) and what production would you give them (yardaged and TD)? (You can add in QB rushing numbers as it's own category.)I know you are saying that NE will go way more run and a lot less pass, but for now just use the 410 RB carry and 340 reception baseline. But let's start with that and we can then figure out if the team WERE to get to where you want them, how will the numbers change.

Alright, I'll tweak those #s to work here, but I'll just leave Brady's and other potential QB rushing attempts out of the equation. I'll use '04 as somewhat of a model to follow. That year, the RBs/FBs had 473 rushing attempts. Dillon was a workhorse that season with 345 carries. Maroney 270 carries (down 30 from my earlier projection, but increased to a 4.7/carry clip) - 1270yds Morris 100 carries (down 20) - 420ydsFaulk 40 carries (down 20) - 210ydsEvans, Eckel 30 carries - 100yds440 total carries, 2000yds In this breakdown, I've assigned the backs a total seasonal allottment of 440 carries, or 27.5 carries/game. Not quite down to that 410 you had suggested, but then Im thinking of a higher rushing total anyway. But I follow your logic, and have tried to more accurately project these #s. Personally, I still expect Maroney to get closer to 300 carries than 250. I cant accurately predict which other back's carries may suffer, but Id suspect they'd be scattered. And though I dont project lost games due to injury, we both know each of these backs will likely miss some time somewhere along the way. So, if Maroney misses a couple of games, and plays only 14, his carries/game would still project to be close to 20/ based on this particular forecast. Last year, Belichick worked Maroney like a horse down the stretch. In his last 6 games, he had 120 carries for close to 600yds and 7 TDs. Four of those games were against playoff teams. He was healthy then, and when called upon, he delivered. He never complained about his limited action earlier in the year. People who dont know this team dont seem to understand that young players dont typically just walk into the lockerroom and assume respect. They have to earn it. Last year, Maroney earned his. This year, he'll be rewarded.

 

[T Bell]

300 carries1350yds13TDs28 catches224yds1 TD1-2 passing12yds1TDThe TD # is conservative. I fully expect him to flirt with 20TDs this season. But no point in overshooting.

I'm a Maroney dynasty owner and would love nothing more than for this to happen, but how on earth can you say that that offense is going to change so much that it's going to essentially feature a RB the way that you're predicting? I just don't see it, not this year anyway.

New England is about as unpredictable as they come. Did anyone even for a second consider Brady reaching 50TDs? Or Moss breaking the TD record? Noone in their right mind considered either, and they both happened. How about a 16-0 regular season? How many of us called that? Now, that was all beautiful to watch, but I doubt very seriously any of that will happen again. Id expect Brady to reach somewhere in the 35ish range, and Moss in the 15ish range, if that. This offense will still be explosive. Just dont expect Maroney to be standing around on the sidelines all season again watching it happen. Some of us know better. And youre one of the lucky ones who will reap the rewards.

The 50 TD's and Moss' TD record are unnecessary to thwart projections of Maroney performing at the level you're saying. More important is the run-pass ratio, which we already figured going in even last year was going to be weighted heavily towards passing based upon what NE has typically done under Belichick, Weiss, et al. Again, I'd love to believe that Maroney is good for 1600 total yards and 20+ TD's, and talent-wise he certainly is if he stays healthy, but he's lost among a lot of talent in that offense, and comes at best in a distant third in that regard to Brady and Moss. He just won't get the opportunities. Again, I'd love to be wrong here, but I'm just not seeing it.

 

[DawnBTVS]

I can't see Belichick going to the run as much as Twitch thinks, partly based on history.

2000: 57% Pass

2001: 50% Pass (Even Split)

2002: 61% Pass

2003: 53% Pass

2004: 52% Run

2005: 56% Pass

2006: 51% Pass

2007: 57% Pass

In terms of play calling between pass and run, 2007 didn't seem historically outside the norm except that they threw the ball 57% of the time. It's clear that Belichick favors the passing game so expecting a split like in 2004 that favors the run (an anomaly year) seems counterintuitive to what should be expected in terms of projections.

Here are my RB projections...

Laurence Maroney: 14 games - 238 carries for 1047 yards (4.40 YPC), 8 TD and 12 catches for 96 yards (7.67 YPC), 0 TD. That comes out to 17 carries per game.

Sammy Morris: 13 games - 117 carries for 515 yards (4.40 YPC), 4 TD and 8 catches for 47 yards (5.88 YPC), 0 TD. That comes out to 9 carries per game.

Kevin Faulk: 16 games - 64 carries for 288 yards (4.50 YPC), 0 TD and 45 catches for 369 yards (8.20 YPC), 2 TD. That comes out to 4 carries per game.

Between those three, that would be 30 carries per game as a three headed RBBC excluding any carries from Tom Brady. As a total, the three would have 419 carries.

I expect the Patriots to play similar to last season (They had 451 carries in total on the season) and give Brady 35 carries and you'll have 454 carries on the year. Then you can add in runs from Kyle Eckel at FB along with the odd WR reverse or whatever.

The passing game clearly worked for the Patriots last season early on, later on, and through the playoffs. If they had sacked Eli Manning in the Super Bowl rather than letting him scramble and complete the throw (or Asante made the INT) then the fact that they had the 53-16 pass to run ratio would be moot. To expect the Patriots to suddenly deviate from a plan that the head coach has always favored and expect an extreme reverse in the other direction is honestly, wishful thinking.

At best, I can see the Patriots dropping to 51-52% pass but I don't expect them to. I expect a ratio around 54-55% pass with the above running totals finishing around 460-465.

 

[BigRed]

Just wondering how/if people think the Jordan signing impacts his position.....

 

[Darker Knight]

Just wondering how/if people think the Jordan signing impacts his position.....

The impact will depend on if Jordan's back is healthy and if it is healthy how long will it stay healthy.A healthy Joradn will have a significant impact on Maroney's numbers....knock them down about 30%

 

[bostonfred]

I actually see the Jordan signing being good, or at least neutral, for Maroney. If you felt that the Pats were going to use RBBC anyways, then this shouldn't change anything. The difference is that there's no reason for the Pats to protect him if they have viable RB depth. Last year, Maroney was getting 15-20 carries per game in the early going. When he got hurt, then Morris got hurt, and Brady had a shot at the record, things changed. But it seems reasonable to think that Maroney would still get his 15-20 carries per game. Maroney will no longer be part of special teams, and Jordan is looking at a special teams role. If anything, the existence of another pass catching back hurts his third down carries, but that was already true.

 

[aburt19]

Why would the Patriots stop doing what worked so well for them last season?

Because several teams showed up the Patriots defense and scored a ton on them. Running the ball is one way to keep the defense off the field. I still think thatthey will be a pass first team, but not as much as they did last year.

 

[aburt19]

I would expect 240/1040/8 and 20/150/0.

A good RB2.

 

[bostonfred]

Re: Why would anything have changed?

The way the Giants defense got so much pressure on Brady was by having three pass rushing ends in the game at the same time. Very few teams have the talent on their defensive lines to do this, but they may try to use it as a blueprint to stop the Pats. If teams sell out on pass blitzing, the Pats running game could have a great year.

 

[Otis]

This guy is one of the ultimate enigmas this year. I absolutely love his ability, and he's on the best offense in the league, but none of us has any idea of how he'll be used in the mix with Jordan/Morris/Faulk. I believe his upside, if he's given the touches, is a top 5 RB. His downside is that of a three-headed monster on a good offense.

No idea what to make of this. Any new thoughts/updates?

 

[T Bell]

Is Benjarvus destined for the practice squad? Release? Anyone?

 

[David Yudkin]

Is Benjarvus destined for the practice squad? Release? Anyone?

The Pats will have Maroney, Jordan, Morris, Faul, and Evans on their regular roster. If my memory of procedue is accurate, that means Eckel and Green will have to be released and open to anyone else to pick up. If they clear waivers and no one wants them, they can be resigned to the Pats practice squad.

 

[Tigerbot Hesh]

I'd be more excited about Maroney if the Pats weren't going to keep 5 RBs on the roster. Leave it to BB to use a committee approach to RBBC.

200 carries, 900 yards, 6 TD's

16 Rec., 140 yards, 0 TD's