Player Spotlight: Marshawn Lynch (1 Viewer)

[Jason Wood]

2008 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. Last year, we published more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters. This year will be no different.

Each week we will post a list of players to be discussed. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discussion expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Marshawn Lynch, RB, Buffalo Bills

Player Page Link: Marshawn Lynch Player Page

Each article will include:

Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads
FBG Projections
Consensus Member ProjectionsThe Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

Focus commentary on the player in question, and your expectations for said player
Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
To be included in the final synopsis and consensus outlook, you MUST provide projections for the playerProjections should include (at a minimum):

For QBs: Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDsNow let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

 

[Weiner Dog]

Shockingly, Lynch had 18 or more carries in every game he played last year. His worst game was a 61-yard performance against the Dolphins in Week 10 where he injured his ankle. 60 yards/game over a 16 game schedule is nearly 1,000 yards in itself.

Lynch should have no problem eclipsing 300+ carries this year. With an increased role in the passing game, I also seeing him netting 30+ receptions. All and all, I think he's one of the few "workhorse" RB's left in the NFL.

320 carries

1344 yards

10 TD's

4.2 avg

35 receptions

385 yards

2 TD's

11.0 avg

 

[gianmarco]

While I've stated that I think Lynch is overrated, I think he's going to have respectable end of year #'s simply because of the workload he should see. However, I think his YPC will still be mediocre at best and I don't see a significant increase in TDs either. I also think Fred Jackson will see the field more during passing situations as he was used near the end of last year and his receiving workload should be limited.

310 carries, 3.8 ypc = 1178 yds and 7 TDs

30 rec for 220 yds and 2 TDs

 

[FF_Guru]

While I've stated that I think Lynch is overrated, I think he's going to have respectable end of year #'s simply because of the workload he should see. However, I think his YPC will still be mediocre at best and I don't see a significant increase in TDs either. I also think Fred Jackson will see the field more during passing situations as he was used near the end of last year and his receiving workload should be limited.310 carries, 3.8 ypc = 1178 yds and 7 TDs30 rec for 220 yds and 2 TDs

I have never seen a RB who finished the season ranked 16th in RB production get so much hype. There is nothing special this guy did last season that would warrant the talk he is getting. Sure he is decent RB, a solid RB2 on many rosters...but I would be very hesitant about putting him at my RB1 spot for these reasons:1) The Bills did nothing in the offseason to improve their running game. Sure they made some waiver moves for the offense, but they didn't attack the position. 2) He only had 1115 and 7TD last season. When the Bills did find the red zone, they couldn't get him into the endzone. Not one game last year where he had multiple rushing TD's. For a guy that is being hyped as he is, you would think the guy had 4-5 of those games. He also only went over 100 yards three times last year. Not very impressive to me. 3) Also, not a strong receiver out of the back field. With only 18 receptions last year, I don't see any reason why this number would jump up. 4) Fred Jackson did play strong in his absence and you will see more and more teams going to the RBBC system. Every team that has developed this type of offense has shown success and we will begin to see more. I agree with the above post that Jackson will play a larger role in this years season. Lynch Prediction: 300 carries, 1100 yds and 8 TD23 rec for 200 yds and 1 TD

 

[Horsec]

I think he's used to catch the ball a bit more than last year:

1150 rushing/385 rec... with 30 rec... and 9 TD

 

[AllVolUT]

Shockingly, Lynch had 18 or more carries in every game he played last year. His worst game was a 61-yard performance against the Dolphins in Week 10 where he injured his ankle. 60 yards/game over a 16 game schedule is nearly 1,000 yards in itself.Lynch should have no problem eclipsing 300+ carries this year. With an increased role in the passing game, I also seeing him netting 30+ receptions. All and all, I think he's one of the few "workhorse" RB's left in the NFL.320 carries1344 yards10 TD's4.2 avg35 receptions385 yards2 TD's11.0 avg

This echoes my sentiments, with similar projections as well.335 carries, 1345 yards, 9 tds35 receptions, 350 yards, 1 td

 

[JPeso]

Sorry, folks, but this offense didn't get better overnight. Adding a redzone threat in Hardy will help, but obviously does not solve all problems. Lynch's YPC will remain low. Those touting him as a top 5 pick will be surprised when he turns out stats that don't warrant that draft position. RB1? Yes. Bellcow? No.

280 rushes, 1,150 rush yards, 4.10 YPC, 8 rush TD

25 catches, 250 yards, 10.0 YPC

 

[gheemony]

Strength of Schedule is good for Lynch to show improvement. Edwards is the starter out of the gate and gets all the practice reps. Hardy frees up Evans, which frees up the running game. Edwards is a manager, so expect more passes for Lynch. Overall, I like him to improve on last year's stats, which came in less than 16 games.

 

[The Man with the Plan]

As mentioned earlier he's a workhorse plain and simple. The offense still isn't very good but the incredible amount of opportunity for Marshawn Lynch should make up for it somewhat. Needs to get more involved in the passing game to become a true stud.

320-1280-8 30-240-0

Overrated and overhyped but not the worst reach out there. Probably won't be on any of my teams this year.

 

[Tanner9919]

Overrated RB..

He should grab some 220 carries, for 880 yards, 12 catches for 120 yards. 6 TD's.

Sophomore jinx.

Fred Jackson is the better RB on that roster, and I see no way in which Lynch keeps him off the field.

Looks like RBBC to me..

Jackson might, at some point , take the starting role from Lynch..

 

[by_the_sea_wannabe]

Shockingly, Lynch had 18 or more carries in every game he played last year. His worst game was a 61-yard performance against the Dolphins in Week 10 where he injured his ankle. 60 yards/game over a 16 game schedule is nearly 1,000 yards in itself.Lynch should have no problem eclipsing 300+ carries this year. With an increased role in the passing game, I also seeing him netting 30+ receptions. All and all, I think he's one of the few "workhorse" RB's left in the NFL.320 carries1344 yards10 TD's4.2 avg35 receptions385 yards2 TD's11.0 avg

This echoes my sentiments, with similar projections as well.335 carries, 1345 yards, 9 tds35 receptions, 350 yards, 1 td

325 - 1365 - 9 30 - 300 - 0

 

[Rodeojones]

Overrated RB..He should grab some 220 carries, for 880 yards, 12 catches for 120 yards. 6 TD's.Sophomore jinx. Fred Jackson is the better RB on that roster, and I see no way in which Lynch keeps him off the field.Looks like RBBC to me..Jackson might, at some point , take the starting role from Lynch..

 

[Banger]

I don't really have a good feel one way or the other with Lynch. On one hand I tend to avoid sophmore RB's because they tend to be overvalued, I don't really like the Buffalo offense much and I don't know if Lynch can stay healthy. On the otherhand looking at the gamelogs I love to see that he's the workhorse and they force feed him the ball. He had a carry LOW of 18 (on two occassions) and had 20+ carries in 9 of 13 games which I LOVE to see. That's an LJ type of workload without the receptions.

I wouldn't be surprised if he had a very nice season IF he can stay healthy. 300-1200-7, 25-175-0. I'll certainly be keeping an eye on the O-line situation and QB situation in Buff because if he can improve his ypc a bit he has a nice chance to be a top end player.

 

[css2373]

Buffalo's D finished 2nd to last in total yards allowed last year and 25th in rushing yards...their run D should be better with Stroud and Kawika Mitchell added...which will affect how their offense runs.

295 carries 1180 8 TDs

25 recs 250yds 1 TD

 

[gianmarco]

I don't really have a good feel one way or the other with Lynch. On one hand I tend to avoid sophmore RB's because they tend to be overvalued, I don't really like the Buffalo offense much and I don't know if Lynch can stay healthy. On the otherhand looking at the gamelogs I love to see that he's the workhorse and they force feed him the ball. He had a carry LOW of 18 (on two occassions) and had 20+ carries in 9 of 13 games which I LOVE to see. That's an LJ type of workload without the receptions. I wouldn't be surprised if he had a very nice season IF he can stay healthy. 300-1200-7, 25-175-0. I'll certainly be keeping an eye on the O-line situation and QB situation in Buff because if he can improve his ypc a bit he has a nice chance to be a top end player.

As I've mentioned, that's a great carry load and yet he still only topped 100 yds in only 3 games all year (and 2 of those were just barely over 100, getting 105 and 107 with lots of carries). That tells me that he didn't really disappoint any games but he didn't really light up any games either with the exception of one against Cincy. He's a great #2 RB. I don't think he's a #1 RB although he's being drafted as one. His biggest plus is the workload he should see and proved he can handle in his 1st year.

 

[radballs]

300 rushes for 1,250 yards, 9 TDs, 30 receptions for 250 yards and 1 TD

 

[TheDirtyWord]

When projected over a full 16 game season, Lynch's rush numbers looked like this:

344/1372/9

In addition, Buffalo finished 30th in the NFL in pass attempts in 2007. While the Bills might like Edwards alot, he threw TD's in only 3 of the 10 games that he played and his YPA was a Joey Harringtonesque 6.06.

This is not to say Edwards can't make a significant jump in his 2nd year, the Bills are counting on it. But Lynch is the one asset they have on offense now that can be deemed reliable and I suspect a smashmouth coach like Jauron will require it. The special quality about Lynch is his situation, but he could go Stephen Jackson on us too (circa 2006). Don't forget that Lynch started to find more holes toward the end of 2007 (last 6 games = 578 yards and 4.4 YPC).

Whereas with a guy like Adrian Peterson whose upside is his supernatural ability, Lynch has solid skills but his situation is Taylor made to have a RB1 emergence.

Prediction: 328 carries, 1413 yards, 9 TD's; 25 receptions, 173 yards, 1 TD

 

[Banger]

I don't really have a good feel one way or the other with Lynch. On one hand I tend to avoid sophmore RB's because they tend to be overvalued, I don't really like the Buffalo offense much and I don't know if Lynch can stay healthy. On the otherhand looking at the gamelogs I love to see that he's the workhorse and they force feed him the ball. He had a carry LOW of 18 (on two occassions) and had 20+ carries in 9 of 13 games which I LOVE to see. That's an LJ type of workload without the receptions. I wouldn't be surprised if he had a very nice season IF he can stay healthy. 300-1200-7, 25-175-0. I'll certainly be keeping an eye on the O-line situation and QB situation in Buff because if he can improve his ypc a bit he has a nice chance to be a top end player.

As I've mentioned, that's a great carry load and yet he still only topped 100 yds in only 3 games all year (and 2 of those were just barely over 100, getting 105 and 107 with lots of carries). That tells me that he didn't really disappoint any games but he didn't really light up any games either with the exception of one against Cincy. He's a great #2 RB. I don't think he's a #1 RB although he's being drafted as one. His biggest plus is the workload he should see and proved he can handle in his 1st year.

I agree that there's nothing eye popping about his stats other than the carries. 100 yard games are nice but I don't get any extra points (other than the fractions) for a 96 yard game or 104 yard game. I agree though that you'd like to see a few more big breakout type games other than the grind it out 19-84 type games that seemed to be the norm. It looks as if he'll be force fed if he can stay healthy and that's a huge part of the RB success equation in the NFL these days. I think he has some talent, and a good opportunity (in terms of the workload) but it's the situation that's ugly. He'll probably end up being too much rich for my blood but view him in the Jamal/McGahee/LJ (to a lesser extent) realm.

 

[gianmarco]

I don't really have a good feel one way or the other with Lynch. On one hand I tend to avoid sophmore RB's because they tend to be overvalued, I don't really like the Buffalo offense much and I don't know if Lynch can stay healthy. On the otherhand looking at the gamelogs I love to see that he's the workhorse and they force feed him the ball. He had a carry LOW of 18 (on two occassions) and had 20+ carries in 9 of 13 games which I LOVE to see. That's an LJ type of workload without the receptions. I wouldn't be surprised if he had a very nice season IF he can stay healthy. 300-1200-7, 25-175-0. I'll certainly be keeping an eye on the O-line situation and QB situation in Buff because if he can improve his ypc a bit he has a nice chance to be a top end player.

As I've mentioned, that's a great carry load and yet he still only topped 100 yds in only 3 games all year (and 2 of those were just barely over 100, getting 105 and 107 with lots of carries). That tells me that he didn't really disappoint any games but he didn't really light up any games either with the exception of one against Cincy. He's a great #2 RB. I don't think he's a #1 RB although he's being drafted as one. His biggest plus is the workload he should see and proved he can handle in his 1st year.

I agree that there's nothing eye popping about his stats other than the carries. 100 yard games are nice but I don't get any extra points (other than the fractions) for a 96 yard game or 104 yard game. I agree though that you'd like to see a few more big breakout type games other than the grind it out 19-84 type games that seemed to be the norm. It looks as if he'll be force fed if he can stay healthy and that's a huge part of the RB success equation in the NFL these days. I think he has some talent, and a good opportunity (in terms of the workload) but it's the situation that's ugly. He'll probably end up being too much rich for my blood but view him in the Jamal/McGahee/LJ (to a lesser extent) realm.

He's not going to disappoint, per se, but you can get similar production a little bit later in Jamal, McGahee, LJ, or Grant but at a smaller price. I just can't stomach picking him at the 7-8 spot (which is where he's going) knowing that he's now my #1 RB.

 

[Banger]

I don't really have a good feel one way or the other with Lynch. On one hand I tend to avoid sophmore RB's because they tend to be overvalued, I don't really like the Buffalo offense much and I don't know if Lynch can stay healthy. On the otherhand looking at the gamelogs I love to see that he's the workhorse and they force feed him the ball. He had a carry LOW of 18 (on two occassions) and had 20+ carries in 9 of 13 games which I LOVE to see. That's an LJ type of workload without the receptions. I wouldn't be surprised if he had a very nice season IF he can stay healthy. 300-1200-7, 25-175-0. I'll certainly be keeping an eye on the O-line situation and QB situation in Buff because if he can improve his ypc a bit he has a nice chance to be a top end player.

As I've mentioned, that's a great carry load and yet he still only topped 100 yds in only 3 games all year (and 2 of those were just barely over 100, getting 105 and 107 with lots of carries). That tells me that he didn't really disappoint any games but he didn't really light up any games either with the exception of one against Cincy. He's a great #2 RB. I don't think he's a #1 RB although he's being drafted as one. His biggest plus is the workload he should see and proved he can handle in his 1st year.

I agree that there's nothing eye popping about his stats other than the carries. 100 yard games are nice but I don't get any extra points (other than the fractions) for a 96 yard game or 104 yard game. I agree though that you'd like to see a few more big breakout type games other than the grind it out 19-84 type games that seemed to be the norm. It looks as if he'll be force fed if he can stay healthy and that's a huge part of the RB success equation in the NFL these days. I think he has some talent, and a good opportunity (in terms of the workload) but it's the situation that's ugly. He'll probably end up being too much rich for my blood but view him in the Jamal/McGahee/LJ (to a lesser extent) realm.

He's not going to disappoint, per se, but you can get similar production a little bit later in Jamal, McGahee, LJ, or Grant but at a smaller price. I just can't stomach picking him at the 7-8 spot (which is where he's going) knowing that he's now my #1 RB.

Ok. I haven't really looked at ADP or rankings at this point but he's being bought at his upside. I'd much rather take LJ for less.

 

[Jon_Moore]

He's a GOOD all around back. He showed the ability to carry the ball A LOT, but also got injured, which may cause them to give the ball to Jackson a little extra, especially since Jackson showed some talent himself. While he didn't exactly break receiving records last year, Lynch is an excellent receiving back, and I'd expect those numbers to really take a jump this season.

304 rushes

1290 yards

8 tds

42 receptions

349 yards

2 tds

 

[Coeur de Lion]

He's not going to disappoint, per se, but you can get similar production a little bit later in Jamal, McGahee, LJ, or Grant but at a smaller price. I just can't stomach picking him at the 7-8 spot (which is where he's going) knowing that he's now my #1 RB.

Good player, not-so-good situation, likely to be the first player in his tier taken by far d/t "sexiness" factor. I won't own him.300 carries for 1225 yards, 25 carries for 240 yards, 8 total TDs.

 

[LHUCKS]

When projected over a full 16 game season, Lynch's rush numbers looked like this:

344/1372/9

In addition, Buffalo finished 30th in the NFL in pass attempts in 2007. While the Bills might like Edwards alot, he threw TD's in only 3 of the 10 games that he played and his YPA was a Joey Harringtonesque 6.06.

This is not to say Edwards can't make a significant jump in his 2nd year, the Bills are counting on it. But Lynch is the one asset they have on offense now that can be deemed reliable and I suspect a smashmouth coach like Jauron will require it. The special quality about Lynch is his situation, but he could go Stephen Jackson on us too (circa 2006). Don't forget that Lynch started to find more holes toward the end of 2007 (last 6 games = 578 yards and 4.4 YPC).

Whereas with a guy like Adrian Peterson whose upside is his supernatural ability, Lynch has solid skills but his situation is Taylor made to have a RB1 emergence.

Prediction: 328 carries, 1413 yards, 9 TD's; 25 receptions, 173 yards, 1 TD

Lynch is a great risk averse play...Jauron really needs to throw him the ball more in the flats, wouldn't be surprised to see an uptick in reception totals.

 

[Iwannabeacowboybaby!]

Marshawn Lynch quietly impressed under the shadows of Adrian Peterson. For awhile, I thought Adrian Peterson was going to be injured for the season and Marshawn would come along and end up winning the ROY down the stretch but it didn't work out that way. Marshawn seems to get dinged a little bit himself but I saw enough good things out of his rookie season to have high hopes for him heading into this season.

1250 yards rushing and 10 TD's, 25 reception for 200 yards and 1 Td

 

[brock]

750 yards 4 tds if guilty of

1550 yards 10 tds if lynch is clear

 

[Mr. Fusion]

Lynch is a workhorse back that performed well in a dismal offense last year. He runs hard, with great ability to pick up short yardage and TDs if the offense ever gets into goal to go situations. The emergence of Jackson will not hurt his value at all - Lynch was rarely used on 3rd and long last year. With a short passing game and Edwards taking all the snaps, Lynch will be used more as a receiver - as his time at Cal showed he is more than capable of.

I draft 7th in my main league and will be happy if I can land him at that spot.

325 carries for 1415 and 10tds

45 receptions for 400 and 3tds

 

[GoBills02]

A big plus for Marshawn is this year are 2 things...

1. The departure of "Mr. Obvious" Steve Fairchild as offensive play caller. Wether Turk Shonert's "new" offense impresses, remains to be seen.

2. All 5 OL are returning from a year where they began to gel in the run blocking department for the end.

Just my quick thoughts.

 

[gianmarco]

A big plus for Marshawn is this year are 2 things...1. The departure of "Mr. Obvious" Steve Fairchild as offensive play caller. Wether Turk Shonert's "new" offense impresses, remains to be seen. 2. All 5 OL are returning from a year where they began to gel in the run blocking department for the end.Just my quick thoughts.

A big minus for Marshawn1. His car

 

[jwb]

A big plus for Marshawn is this year are 2 things...1. The departure of "Mr. Obvious" Steve Fairchild as offensive play caller. Wether Turk Shonert's "new" offense impresses, remains to be seen. 2. All 5 OL are returning from a year where they began to gel in the run blocking department for the end.Just my quick thoughts.

A big minus for Marshawn1. His car

Yea, this is a problem. Be interesting to see where he goes in dynasty startups until this is settled

 

[brock]

positives

he can take a hit and keep on running.

he's got the quickness to get away from trouble.

he doesn't get stopped after the first hit.

he has the power to knock people down and keep on driving through.

he gets low to the ground hitting people in the legs and deflecting them away.

he has nice speed to make getaways.

 

[BigRed]

He's not going to disappoint, per se, but you can get similar production a little bit later in Jamal, McGahee, LJ, or Grant but at a smaller price.

Realize they're being drafted at similar times, but I would not put LJ in this category, only because he's a diff situation - ie instead of being pretty safe for decent production, LJ is more boom/bust. I also don't get the "I'm not buying into all this hype" comments. Where is all this hype? PS any update on his dipshat driving thing?

 

[FreeBaGeL]

I don't really have a good feel one way or the other with Lynch. On one hand I tend to avoid sophmore RB's because they tend to be overvalued, I don't really like the Buffalo offense much and I don't know if Lynch can stay healthy. On the otherhand looking at the gamelogs I love to see that he's the workhorse and they force feed him the ball. He had a carry LOW of 18 (on two occassions) and had 20+ carries in 9 of 13 games which I LOVE to see. That's an LJ type of workload without the receptions. I wouldn't be surprised if he had a very nice season IF he can stay healthy. 300-1200-7, 25-175-0. I'll certainly be keeping an eye on the O-line situation and QB situation in Buff because if he can improve his ypc a bit he has a nice chance to be a top end player.

As I've mentioned, that's a great carry load and yet he still only topped 100 yds in only 3 games all year (and 2 of those were just barely over 100, getting 105 and 107 with lots of carries). That tells me that he didn't really disappoint any games but he didn't really light up any games either with the exception of one against Cincy. He's a great #2 RB. I don't think he's a #1 RB although he's being drafted as one. His biggest plus is the workload he should see and proved he can handle in his 1st year.

While I do agree with your last point (he's a great #2 RB, not a good #1 RB), you vastly overestimate how often players rush for 100 yards.Rudi was a top 10 RB for years, and the most he ever rushed for 100 yards was 5 times in a season. The other two season he did it 4 times in 16 games. Lynch did it 3 times in 13 games last year.Even LT only rushed for 100 yards in 5 of 19 games last year. Portis did it 4 times in 17 games, Addai 4 times in 16 games, Steven Jackson 2 times in 12 games, Gore 2 times in 15 games, etc.

 

[Gottabesweet]

He's not going to disappoint, per se, but you can get similar production a little bit later in Jamal, McGahee, LJ, or Grant but at a smaller price.

Realize they're being drafted at similar times, but I would not put LJ in this category, only because he's a diff situation - ie instead of being pretty safe for decent production, LJ is more boom/bust.

I also don't get the "I'm not buying into all this hype" comments. Where is all this hype?

PS any update on his dipshat driving thing?

All quiet here in Buffalo. I think it was left at Goodell looking into the situation and the code of conduct. Camp Starts the 25th and most of the players aren't around town the past couple weeks.