Player Spotlight: Matt Ryan (1 Viewer)

[Jason Wood]

2009 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. Last year, we published more than 120 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters. This year will be no different.

Each week we will post a list of players to be discussed. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discussion expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Matt Ryan, QB, Atlanta Falcons

Player Page Link: Matt Ryan Player Page

Each article will include:

Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads
FBG Projections
Consensus Member ProjectionsThe Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

Focus commentary on the player in question, and your expectations for said player
Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
To be included in the final synopsis and consensus outlook, you MUST provide projections for the playerProjections should include (at a minimum):

For QBs: Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDsNow let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

 

[The Man with the Plan]

In his rookie year he put up great numbers 16 TD 11 INT 3440 Yds. With another year of experience and the addition of the best TE in the game Tony Gonzalez I think that Matt Ryan joins the fantasy elite in 2009. I wouldn't be surprised if he throws for over 4000 yards and 25+ touchdowns this year.

 

[Buckfast 1]

I have a feeling that a significant number of Michael Turner's 1 yard TD runs turn into 1 yard play-action fake TD passes to Tony Gonzalez this year. I think the addition of Gonzalez in the red zone alone adds at least 6 TDs to Ryan's passing TDs in addition to any other growth and improvement that Ryan shows in his second season.

 

[Jason Wood]

I'm surprised at the lack of discussion for Matt Ryan right now. The staff is pretty tightly bound with him, as Pasquino has him QB9 and Bob Henry has him lowest at QB14. Historically not much separates QB9 and QB14 over a full season in standard scoring redraft leagues. So, basically, we're all of the mind that he'll improve off an excellent rookie year and become a fringe fantasy starter, but more appropriately drafted as a great QB2.

To me, history is on his side. There's been plenty of analysis done about the quality of his rookie season and what that likely means for his career trajectory as long as he stays healthy. But in order for Ryan to meet our expectations [i have him QB10], the Falcons are going to have to throw more this year. To my mind, that's a no-brainer. Ryan proved he's capable of doing more, the gloves will be off, and they added Tony Gonzalez to the mix. The state of the Falcons defense is in question, and with Turner and Norwood around they won't abandon a heavy run game, otherwise I might be tempted to put Ryan even higher. I think he's the real deal, Holyfield.

 

[David Yudkin]

Since Jason was looking for discussion, I am in the camp that Ryan and the Falcons may not have things as easy as last year. I have nothing substantial to hang my hat on in that regard much more than a hunch, but here is some of that rationale . . .

- ATL faced 11 teams ranked in the bottom half of the league and a veritable who's who of the bottom of ten (7 opponents including DET, KC, CHI, NO twice, DEN, and SD).

- Replacing many of those easier out of division games with the likes of NE, BUF, MIA, NYJ, DAL, PHI, NYG, and WAS and the Falcons should be up against some stiffer competition this year.

- For the most part, the offensive unit stayed healthy in 2008. While it's impossible to accurately predict injuries, karma seems to have a way of catching up with you and it's very difficult for everyone to stay healthy in consecutive years.

- ATL was called for 50% fewer penalties than their oppoents in 2008. And they turned the ball over 50% less than in 2007. Hard to predict how things will change, but I'm guessing things will even out in these areas.

- Other rookie QBs have not improved from Year One to Year Two and some actually lost ground. I don't hold much stock in this as every situation is different, so what Jim Kelly did as a rookie, for example, really has no bearing on what Ryan will do this year.

- Ryan averaged nearly eight yards per attempt which is extremely efficient. As Jason said, to jump up in the ranking he will need to keep a high ypa while adding in more passing attempts. ATL ranked 2nd in rushing attempts and 29th in passing attempts . . . not exactly what you want to see if you want big QB production.

- If nothing else, the NFL as a whole is quick to make adjustments from year to year. I doubt many teams will be surprised with the Falcons this year and defenses will have a full offseason of tape to better defend the Falcons. I realize you can make that argument about a lot of teams, but last year a lot changed in ATL and teams will be better prepared.

- The Falcons defense was not great but good enough last year. They ranked in the bottom 10 in many rushing and passing categories but somehow raned in the top third in the league in points allowed. Those two normally don't coexist, and the Falcons must have thought that as well as they invested the huge majority of their draft picks on defensively players.

- If the defense really succeded basically on smoke and mirrors last year, the team will want to keep the defense off of the field by continuing with a hard hitting ground attack.

- Ryan ranked 15th last season playing every down on offense. He can't play more than he did. However, other QBs that ranked behind him could. Give a couple of those guys more playing time and suddenly Ryan could slip a couple of slots. (Again, I realize that players that finished ahead of him could also get hurt this year to counteract that.)

I think the future is very bright for Ryan and the Falcons and adding in Gonzalez should be an asset. But I wonder if Tony G will mostly take away production from others rather than simply adding to what was already there.

I'm still tinkering with what I would project for him, but I'd probably rank him lower than the rest of the staff. I don't think he'll do worse than last year production wise, but I'm not on board with a big leap this year. I think that's coming once he learns and gets more experienced, but this year may have some speed bumps.

 

[Dave Larkin]

Matt Ryan is a player on the precipice of fantasy stardom, but this second season of his career is the tipping point. His first year was so good for a rookie that the expectation is that he will get better.

Tony Gonzalez is on board now, meaning Ryan will have a HOF tight end to throw to.

The running game should still be as strong as ever.

However, the schedule is tough this year for the NFC South, and Ryan may struggle against the more savvy defenses like the Giants and Eagles.

I have faith that Ryan can produce good, solid QB2 numbers.

Projection: 3,600 yards, 18 TD, 9 INT; 150 rushing yards, 1 rushing TD.

 

[Lott's Fingertip]

Matt Ryan looks the part of a very good NFL QB. However, Atlanta is going to have to change their offensive philosophy for him to be a fantasy starter.

I expect Ryan to be better this year than last year, but not significantly so for fantasy purposes.

3650 passing yards, 19 TDs

75 rushing yards, 1 naked bootleg TD

 

[mlball77]

Adding Gonzalez gives Ryan another weapon, but I still think Turner will be leaned upon heavily, particularly in the redzone. This could keep Ryan's TD figures a bit low. I don't expect Ryan's production to see a marked improvement this year, but he should have a very nice season.

Completions: 288

Attempts: 475

Pass Yds: 3560

Pass TDs: 19

Pass INTs: 13

Rush Yds: 100

Rush TDs: 1

 

[Terps2002]

Matt Ryan looks the part of a very good NFL QB. However, Atlanta is going to have to change their offensive philosophy for him to be a fantasy starter.I expect Ryan to be better this year than last year, but not significantly so for fantasy purposes.3650 passing yards, 19 TDs75 rushing yards, 1 naked bootleg TD

Ryan was ranked 15th in one league I am in and 11th in the other. In a 12-16 team league that makes him a fantasy starter now. Atlanta's offensive philosophy was based on Ryan being a rookie. The top two teams who lead the NFL in rushing attempts were Baltimore and Atlanta, both of them started rookie qb's the whole year. Ryan was protected early as he adjusted to the NFL game and late when the Falcons were just trying to make the playoffs. Ryan's biggest fantasy downfall was he had 11 games with 1 td or less. On the plus side of that he did have 11 games with at least 1 td pass which to me is very solid for a rookie qb with only one legitimate wide receiver.To me Tony G changes everything for Atlanta, there wasn't one threat on Atlanta who can work the middle of the field before he came to town. Ryan now has options in the passing game besides Roddy White being doubled, Norwood flaring out of the backfield or Jenkins running those 7 yard crossing, comeback or out patterns. Either you double Roddy or your double Tony G, either way that leaves an All Pro receiving threat in single coverage.Michael Turner is 27 years old right now, he will be 28 right at the end of next season. While he doesn't have alot of wear and tear on his body he did carry the ball 376 times last year and I believe that Atlanta would be smart to take a small bit of the load off of his shoulders to maximize his potential. The last two backs to carry the ball more then 376 times in a season were Shaun Alexander and Larry Johnson and nobody is hinging their fantasy success this year on these two guys.3850 yards , 22 td's, 13 ints98 rushing yards, 1 td

 

[ScottNorwood]

Matt Ryan looks the part of a very good NFL QB.

What does this mean?

 

[Lott's Fingertip]

Matt Ryan looks the part of a very good NFL QB.

What does this mean?

It means he had a very good season, for a rookie. It means that he showed the necessary skills and judgment to be a very good NFL quarterback. But being a very good NFL QB doesn't necessarily mean that player will be a good fantasy QB. (see Aikman, Troy, and Roethlisberger, Ben)

 

[Lott's Fingertip]

Matt Ryan looks the part of a very good NFL QB. However, Atlanta is going to have to change their offensive philosophy for him to be a fantasy starter.I expect Ryan to be better this year than last year, but not significantly so for fantasy purposes.3650 passing yards, 19 TDs75 rushing yards, 1 naked bootleg TD

Ryan was ranked 15th in one league I am in and 11th in the other. In a 12-16 team league that makes him a fantasy starter now. Atlanta's offensive philosophy was based on Ryan being a rookie. The top two teams who lead the NFL in rushing attempts were Baltimore and Atlanta, both of them started rookie qb's the whole year. Ryan was protected early as he adjusted to the NFL game and late when the Falcons were just trying to make the playoffs. Ryan's biggest fantasy downfall was he had 11 games with 1 td or less. On the plus side of that he did have 11 games with at least 1 td pass which to me is very solid for a rookie qb with only one legitimate wide receiver.To me Tony G changes everything for Atlanta, there wasn't one threat on Atlanta who can work the middle of the field before he came to town. Ryan now has options in the passing game besides Roddy White being doubled, Norwood flaring out of the backfield or Jenkins running those 7 yard crossing, comeback or out patterns. Either you double Roddy or your double Tony G, either way that leaves an All Pro receiving threat in single coverage.Michael Turner is 27 years old right now, he will be 28 right at the end of next season. While he doesn't have alot of wear and tear on his body he did carry the ball 376 times last year and I believe that Atlanta would be smart to take a small bit of the load off of his shoulders to maximize his potential. The last two backs to carry the ball more then 376 times in a season were Shaun Alexander and Larry Johnson and nobody is hinging their fantasy success this year on these two guys.3850 yards , 22 td's, 13 ints98 rushing yards, 1 td

That makes him a borderline fantasy starter now. In one of my leagues he was QB15... but he was QB18 in ppg. He was .122 ppg ahead of Jason Campbell and 1.6 ppg behind Chad Pennington.I would not be comfortable with Ryan as my QB1, I would be happy with him as my QB2 or, more likely, as part of a QBBC. He basically put up Eli Manning numbers last year. Eli is notorious for finishing as QB12 or so, but everybody knows that is because he hasn't missed games, not because he is the 12th best fantasy QB in any given week.All that being said, we are about 2 ppg apart in our projections, and it wouldn't surprise me to see him achieve your projections.

 

[TheDirtyWord]

Let me offer up some yin to Yudkin's yang here...

- ATL faced 11 teams ranked in the bottom half of the league and a veritable who's who of the bottom of ten (7 opponents including DET, KC, CHI, NO twice, DEN, and SD). Replacing many of those easier out of division games with the likes of NE, BUF, MIA, NYJ, DAL, PHI, NYG, and WAS and the Falcons should be up against some stiffer competition this year.

- Ryan averaged nearly eight yards per attempt which is extremely efficient. As Jason said, to jump up in the ranking he will need to keep a high ypa while adding in more passing attempts. ATL ranked 2nd in rushing attempts and 29th in passing attempts . . . not exactly what you want to see if you want big QB production.

I'm going to focus on the 4 opponents the Falcons played that were truly the dregs of the NFL in 2008 (DET, KC, STL, OAK). In those games, he had 74 attempts or 18.5/game. The run/pass ratio was 68:32. All but the St. Louis game was a rout. The point though in combining the two facts Yudkin bore out was that if the schedule is going to be that much tougher, then Ryan is probably going to called upon to throw more in 2009 not simply because he won't be a rookie, but because the opponent will dictate it.

- ATL was called for 50% fewer penalties than their oppoents in 2008. And they turned the ball over 50% less than in 2007. Hard to predict how things will change, but I'm guessing things will even out in these areas.

Coaching, focus and talent IMO are big factors in this equation. I think Joey Harrington is more prone to turning the ball over than Matt Ryan. Michael Turner doesn't fumble. Fact is, the Falcons were at -3 in the TO +/- ratio area in 2008 anyhow so they were able to exceed expectations despite not being opportunistic. Comparing 2008 to 2007 for the Falcons is a bit unfair. The situation prior to Dimitroff/Smith was putrid.

- The Falcons defense was not great but good enough last year. They ranked in the bottom 10 in many rushing and passing categories but somehow raned in the top third in the league in points allowed. Those two normally don't coexist, and the Falcons must have thought that as well as they invested the huge majority of their draft picks on defensively players.

- If the defense really succeded basically on smoke and mirrors last year, the team will want to keep the defense off of the field by continuing with a hard hitting ground attack.

As someone who follows the Falcons closely, I'll say this. I expect the defense to be better this year. The losses on defense were of veteran players whose name value had far exceeded their production value for the most part (Keith Brooking, Lawyer Milloy, Grady Jackson). The Falcons were able to keep the scoring down on their defense due in part to the fact that their special teams were awesome. Even if Falcons didn't score, they invariably had productive series to at least improve field position. Couple that with an ST unit that allowed less than 50 return yards all season and a majority of the time, they were giving their opponents long field with which to work. While the Falcons won't abandon a ground based attack, they do recognize that they do not want Michael Turner to shoulder another 376 carry workload. A re-distribution of run pass plays can be carried out without deviating from their core principles as an offense. The Falcons only passed the ball 44.6% of the time, where the NFL average is closer to 55%.

I think the future is very bright for Ryan and the Falcons and adding in Gonzalez should be an asset. But I wonder if Tony G will mostly take away production from others rather than simply adding to what was already there.

Given the 44.6% pass ratio figure presented above, say the Falcons are able to duplicate their 1,011 plays from scrimmage they ran in 2008 (13th in the NFL). Bumping up to a 50% ratio would mean approximately 480 pass attempts (assuming 25 sacks). Given the balance the Falcons have on offense and the additional weapon Gonzalez represents, it would not be a surprise to see them improve in this category. I think you'll see White's number's come down, but as efficient as the Falcons passing game was in 2008, I think there is still room for additional weapons to emerge without significantly cannibalizing existing production sources.My Analysis

You've got to remember that Ryan, as impressive as he was in 2008, was still a rookie. To that end, I don't think the Falcons coaching staff ever said 'put us on your back'. They knew they had Michael Turner and he was going to be the one that the Falcons were going to ride. While they gaveRyan the entire playbook and the ability to run the offense in a hurry up mode -rare responsibilities for a rookie, he was still a piece to the puzzle. I think his stature and the Falcons reliance on him as one of the bedrocks to their future success will increase in Year 2.

What we know about Ryan is that he's a gym and film room rat. When Mike Smith arrived at Flowery Branch (Falcons HQ) the next morning after their playoff loss to Arizona, he was startled to see Ryan already breaking down game tape. Ryan seems completely dedicated to becoming the best possible QB he can be. He has no shortage of weapons at his disposal.

The next steps in the Falcons progression needs to be to diversify the formula by which they win. They were very successful last year because they jumped out to early leads and forced their opponents to play one-dimensional football that covered up a significant team flaw; run defense. They gave up 4.9 YPC but ranked 21st in terms of rushing attempts against. I'd be surprised if the Falcons could rely on that formula so heavily again. To that point, Ryan had 54 more pass attempts in the 1st half of games in 2008.

One more point, specifically about Gonzalez. The Falcons, and more specifically Ryan's performance, in the red zone was adequate. They could pound it in with Turner, but the passing game significantly bogged down. Part of that is because with Turner in the game, Ryan did not have a pass catching threat at RB or TE. Harry Douglas, WR3/slot receiver, was a rookie and is a small target. So defenses knew that the Falcons were going to White or Jenkins. Couple that with Ryan trying to survey a short field as a rookie...well, Jason Elam was busy. Having three viable, if not above average to elite, weapons in the passing game in the red zone will be a significanyt development to Ryan's success inside the 20.

So, as you can expect, I'm bullish on Ryan...

Prediction:

315 Completions

501 Attempts

3836 Passing Yards

62.9% Completion Rate

7.66 YPA

27 TD's

14 INT's

28 Rushes

83 Rushing Yards

1 TD

 

[David Yudkin]

Hey Dirty Word -

Well thought out post. However, while Ryan may ultimately end up passing more, he may not end up doing as well. Going up against tougher defenses (well on paper anyways), one would expect lower per attempt results.

If ATL does not fare as well and has to pass more, I would expect more incompletions and a few more interceptions when the opponent is fully expecting them to pass. I don't necessarily think that the wheels will fall off overall, but they could be a better team and play better but end up 8-8 or 9-7. (I'm not saying that that will happen, but the Chargers a couple years ago overall played well but still only were 9-7 when they easily could have been 11-5.)

Another thing (which has nothing to do with you) about the Player Spotlights in general that I have always found curious is that most of the time people will pimp the guys they like and it seems that the Player Spotlights for almost every QB in the league will go for 3800/25 and every RB will get 1500 yards and 10 TD.

CLEARLY in reality that is far from the case. Maybe 6-8 guys will hit those numbers in any one of those categories. Yet in reading the Player Spotlights, there will be 25 backs at 1500/10 and 18 QB at 3800/25.

As for Ryan, I saw him quite a bit at Boston College and he certainly has the moxy to be a top tier NFL QB. I still get the sense that there will be more bumps in the road than last year, and there just is no way to explain or quantify that . . .

 

[TheDirtyWord]

Hey Dirty Word -Well thought out post. However, while Ryan may ultimately end up passing more, he may not end up doing as well. Going up against tougher defenses (well on paper anyways), one would expect lower per attempt results. If ATL does not fare as well and has to pass more, I would expect more incompletions and a few more interceptions when the opponent is fully expecting them to pass. I don't necessarily think that the wheels will fall off overall, but they could be a better team and play better but end up 8-8 or 9-7. (I'm not saying that that will happen, but the Chargers a couple years ago overall played well but still only were 9-7 when they easily could have been 11-5.)Another thing (which has nothing to do with you) about the Player Spotlights in general that I have always found curious is that most of the time people will pimp the guys they like and it seems that the Player Spotlights for almost every QB in the league will go for 3800/25 and every RB will get 1500 yards and 10 TD.CLEARLY in reality that is far from the case. Maybe 6-8 guys will hit those numbers in any one of those categories. Yet in reading the Player Spotlights, there will be 25 backs at 1500/10 and 18 QB at 3800/25.As for Ryan, I saw him quite a bit at Boston College and he certainly has the moxy to be a top tier NFL QB. I still get the sense that there will be more bumps in the road than last year, and there just is no way to explain or quantify that . . .

I'm always hesitant to look at the schedule and say a team has a tough/easy schedule. However, I'm willing to ceed that the Falcons won't wind up playing teams that will pick 1, 2, 3, & 7 in next years draft. That said, the acquisition of Gonzalez IMO at least shows that the Falcons will look to balance their offensive attack moreso than it was last year. Consider that the Falcons scored 23 rushing TD's in 2008 and again, this is an area where the Falcons could rob Peter to pay Paul to increase their red zone efficiency.Also take note that I'm predicting a;1.8% percentage point jump in completion percentage.27 decrease in YPAI would say that I'm being fair in predicting measured improvement rather than dramatic improvement for Ryan. Where the stats see a significant increase is more due to the Falcons shift in offensive philosophy away from such a run-centric offense. I believe the only team that ran more (in terms of a percentage of their plays) was Baltimore. They can still be run based (with over 500 attempts potentially) but provide more opportunities for Ryan in the passing game.Let's not forget that for a 'student of the game' that Ryan appears to be...there should be natural improvement in his game just by virtue of his preparation. The notion that there is film on him discounts the fact that Ryan is probably studying the defenses he'll be facing too and since he acclimated himself so well to the pro game last year, I would say this would cancel itself out in terms of effect.

 

[seventwentykay]

I think Matt Ryan has the potential to be the breakout fantasy QB this year, similar to Palmer/Brady in 2005 and Romo in 2007. He finished 13th in my league's scoring system last year, and barring injury I'm having a hard time seeing anyway he regresses statistically, regardless of schedule and commitment to the running game. Considering how much he surprised last year as a rookie, I think it's reasonable to believe he takes the next step in his 2nd year towards being an elite passer. Gonzalez adds a potent red zone weapon that will make White and Jenkins better and will take some of the pressure of the running game.

If his general rankings hold (in the QB9 - QB13 range) I have a feeling there are going to be quite a few fantasy teams this year that will load up on RB and WR early and reap the benefits with Ryan more than serviceable as their #1 QB.

3976yds 30td 12int

125rush 2tds

 

[rzrback77]

I think that Matt Ryan had an awesome rookie season completing 61.1% of his passes for 7.9 ypa and 16 TDs vs only 11 ints. I think that Atlanta ran a little too often with Turner and will look to pass a little more in 09. I think that their division mates, Carolina and New Orleans will be improved in 09 and Tampa Bay is also decent, so they will be in a tough division. I think that their record may not be as good, but Ryans's fantasy ranking will be improved as he passes more often and throws more TDs with the addition of Gonzo in the redzone. Atlanta TEs caught only 19 passes in 08.

Matt Ryan 298 completions out of 480 attempts 62.0% for 3504 yards 7.3 ypa 22 TDs and 13 ints with 40 rushes for 100 yds and 2 TDs

 

[Terps2002]

Matt Ryan looks the part of a very good NFL QB. However, Atlanta is going to have to change their offensive philosophy for him to be a fantasy starter.I expect Ryan to be better this year than last year, but not significantly so for fantasy purposes.3650 passing yards, 19 TDs75 rushing yards, 1 naked bootleg TD

Ryan was ranked 15th in one league I am in and 11th in the other. In a 12-16 team league that makes him a fantasy starter now. Atlanta's offensive philosophy was based on Ryan being a rookie. The top two teams who lead the NFL in rushing attempts were Baltimore and Atlanta, both of them started rookie qb's the whole year. Ryan was protected early as he adjusted to the NFL game and late when the Falcons were just trying to make the playoffs. Ryan's biggest fantasy downfall was he had 11 games with 1 td or less. On the plus side of that he did have 11 games with at least 1 td pass which to me is very solid for a rookie qb with only one legitimate wide receiver.To me Tony G changes everything for Atlanta, there wasn't one threat on Atlanta who can work the middle of the field before he came to town. Ryan now has options in the passing game besides Roddy White being doubled, Norwood flaring out of the backfield or Jenkins running those 7 yard crossing, comeback or out patterns. Either you double Roddy or your double Tony G, either way that leaves an All Pro receiving threat in single coverage.Michael Turner is 27 years old right now, he will be 28 right at the end of next season. While he doesn't have alot of wear and tear on his body he did carry the ball 376 times last year and I believe that Atlanta would be smart to take a small bit of the load off of his shoulders to maximize his potential. The last two backs to carry the ball more then 376 times in a season were Shaun Alexander and Larry Johnson and nobody is hinging their fantasy success this year on these two guys.3850 yards , 22 td's, 13 ints98 rushing yards, 1 td

That makes him a borderline fantasy starter now. In one of my leagues he was QB15... but he was QB18 in ppg. He was .122 ppg ahead of Jason Campbell and 1.6 ppg behind Chad Pennington.I would not be comfortable with Ryan as my QB1, I would be happy with him as my QB2 or, more likely, as part of a QBBC. He basically put up Eli Manning numbers last year. Eli is notorious for finishing as QB12 or so, but everybody knows that is because he hasn't missed games, not because he is the 12th best fantasy QB in any given week.All that being said, we are about 2 ppg apart in our projections, and it wouldn't surprise me to see him achieve your projections.

Well if he is 11th in a 12 team league and 15th in a 16 team league he isn't a borderline starter, he is a starter, a low QB1. Granted if he replicates last year numbers he is a perfect qb for the QBBC. I paired him with David Garrard who is 10th in the 16 team league and 10th in the 12 man league. Between weeks 5 to week 14 Matt Ryan was the number 5 ranked qb in one league and number 4 in the other. I give him pass on the first 4 weeks of the year being a rookie. The last 3 weeks of the year Atlanta protected him and leaned on the running game as they were fighting tooth and nail for a playoff spot.The big thing about Ryan as opposed to Eli is, Ryan will be more consistent week to week. If I can't have a stud qb, I'd rather have one whose good week to bad week differential is on the smaller side then one who is as large as Eli's.

 

[Lott's Fingertip]

Matt Ryan looks the part of a very good NFL QB. However, Atlanta is going to have to change their offensive philosophy for him to be a fantasy starter.I expect Ryan to be better this year than last year, but not significantly so for fantasy purposes.3650 passing yards, 19 TDs75 rushing yards, 1 naked bootleg TD

Ryan was ranked 15th in one league I am in and 11th in the other. In a 12-16 team league that makes him a fantasy starter now. Atlanta's offensive philosophy was based on Ryan being a rookie. The top two teams who lead the NFL in rushing attempts were Baltimore and Atlanta, both of them started rookie qb's the whole year. Ryan was protected early as he adjusted to the NFL game and late when the Falcons were just trying to make the playoffs. Ryan's biggest fantasy downfall was he had 11 games with 1 td or less. On the plus side of that he did have 11 games with at least 1 td pass which to me is very solid for a rookie qb with only one legitimate wide receiver.To me Tony G changes everything for Atlanta, there wasn't one threat on Atlanta who can work the middle of the field before he came to town. Ryan now has options in the passing game besides Roddy White being doubled, Norwood flaring out of the backfield or Jenkins running those 7 yard crossing, comeback or out patterns. Either you double Roddy or your double Tony G, either way that leaves an All Pro receiving threat in single coverage.Michael Turner is 27 years old right now, he will be 28 right at the end of next season. While he doesn't have alot of wear and tear on his body he did carry the ball 376 times last year and I believe that Atlanta would be smart to take a small bit of the load off of his shoulders to maximize his potential. The last two backs to carry the ball more then 376 times in a season were Shaun Alexander and Larry Johnson and nobody is hinging their fantasy success this year on these two guys.3850 yards , 22 td's, 13 ints98 rushing yards, 1 td

That makes him a borderline fantasy starter now. In one of my leagues he was QB15... but he was QB18 in ppg. He was .122 ppg ahead of Jason Campbell and 1.6 ppg behind Chad Pennington.I would not be comfortable with Ryan as my QB1, I would be happy with him as my QB2 or, more likely, as part of a QBBC. He basically put up Eli Manning numbers last year. Eli is notorious for finishing as QB12 or so, but everybody knows that is because he hasn't missed games, not because he is the 12th best fantasy QB in any given week.All that being said, we are about 2 ppg apart in our projections, and it wouldn't surprise me to see him achieve your projections.

Well if he is 11th in a 12 team league and 15th in a 16 team league he isn't a borderline starter, he is a starter, a low QB1. Granted if he replicates last year numbers he is a perfect qb for the QBBC. I paired him with David Garrard who is 10th in the 16 team league and 10th in the 12 man league. Between weeks 5 to week 14 Matt Ryan was the number 5 ranked qb in one league and number 4 in the other. I give him pass on the first 4 weeks of the year being a rookie. The last 3 weeks of the year Atlanta protected him and leaned on the running game as they were fighting tooth and nail for a playoff spot.The big thing about Ryan as opposed to Eli is, Ryan will be more consistent week to week. If I can't have a stud qb, I'd rather have one whose good week to bad week differential is on the smaller side then one who is as large as Eli's.

That is one way of looking at it, but the number 15 QB isn't much better than the #17 or #18 QB... not to mention the QBs that waiver wire gems that far outpaced their final year ranking when they played.Seneca Wallace outscored Matt Ryan in 5 of the 7 weeks they both started.Ryan outscored Jeff Garcia, Shaun Hill, and Matt Schaub... but all three of those guys averaged more than Ryan, 16.9, 19.2, and 20 ppg vs 15.4 for Ryan.Ryan accumulated enough stats over 16 games to finish #15 overall. That isn't the same thing as being the 15th best fantasy QB.This is mostly off topic, though. Ryan should be better in 2009, and worthy of being a QB1 in his own right going forward. I would certainly expect him to finish above QB15 overall, and QB18 in ppg.

 

[Coach Pantusso]

Matt Ryan will try to build on a season where he threw only 11 INTs in 434 pass attempts. The problem is that it is a difficult task to undertake. Can he really improve on an INT every 39 pass attempts? Not likely. 7.95 yards per attempt? I don't think so. Are the Falcons going to air it out now that they have Gonzo? Again, probably not...especially with an unproven DEF (I don't think guys are thinking about how bad their DEF was when considering why they run so much---it is as big a factor as Ryan's inexperience IMO).

Expect a regression to the NFL mean with pass to INT ratio with only a small uptick in pass attempts. Interestingly, a relatively high percentage of Ryan's TDs were plays of 20 yards or more (7 of 16, 43%). With big targets like White and Jenkins, I would have expected more RZ passing TDs...but with Michael Turner scoring 15 of his 17 TDs in the RZ, why bother throwing it? Gonzo may cut into Turner's touches inside the opponents 20 and benefit Ryan with a few more TDs than last season.

280/455-3327-21-14

*edit numbers 328/535-3965-21-16 (spreadsheet error)