Player Spotlight: Michael Turner (1 Viewer)

[Jason Wood]

2008 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. Last year, we published more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters. This year will be no different.

Each week we will post a list of players to be discussed. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discussion expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Michael Turner, RB, Atlanta Falcons

Player Page Link: Michael Turner Player Page

Each article will include:

Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads
FBG Projections
Consensus Member ProjectionsThe Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

Focus commentary on the player in question, and your expectations for said player
Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
To be included in the final synopsis and consensus outlook, you MUST provide projections for the playerProjections should include (at a minimum):

For QBs: Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDsNow let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

 

[Verbal Kint]

Questions surrounding Turner this year:

1. Atlanta went from being far and away the #1 rushing team with Vick to one of the worst after his indictment. How much of that change was due to the lack of his playmaking ability versus the disruption to the team? Can they get back to the rushing force they were before?

2. What will the split in carries be between Turner and Norwood?

3. What type of offense can we expect with the new coaching regime?

4. Can Turner sustain his performance as a featured back?

I'm not sure what the answers are to any of these, but I'll throw out my opinion:

1. Vick's ability to create confusion in the defense, and the defense's need to account for his running ability is what created the open holes in the running game. Having said that, the offense had no time to adjust to having a more traditional quarterback immediately before the season started, in an offense that was specifically tailored to Vick's talents. Now with a year to adjust I expect them to improve but not be dominant. This will also be impacted by the QB development.

2. I expect to see a Taylor/Jones-Drew scenario, with Turner maybe getting a little more of the pie (65/35 if I had to guess today) The difference is that Taylor is nearly as explosive as Norwood, but less of a proven pass catcher.

3. I have no idea, but would expect a dedication to ball control with a rookie QB likely at the helm, but limited scoring opportunities.

4. Turner is built in the mold of Jones-Drew. Bowling ball. I think he can handle the punishment.

Rushing 1,100/7 with upside.

Rec: 100/0

 

[JPeso]

Turner is an interesting player to gauge. People downplay the role Norwood may have in the offense, but he will still be a change of pace factor, and the lightning to Turner's thunder. Solid RB3, with RB2 upside.

250 rushes, 1,075 rush yards, 4.3 YPC, 7 rush TD

18 catches, 150 yards, 8.33 YPC

 

[radballs]

Turner has quite a challenge ahead of him. It's his first starting gig, and he's now moved on to a new team that will most likely have trouble effectively moving the ball with a rookie QB and a poor offensive line. Still, he showed flashes of starter material while with the Chargers, but I don't know if he's going to be able to consistently move the chains when teams have 8 in the box.

290 rushes for 1,130 yards, 8 TDs, 25 receptions for 210 receiving yards and 1 TD

 

[Phlash]

270/1200/8

40/350/1

Will be a very good RB2, solid RB1

 

[Carter_Can_Fly]

I will call these my safe projections for a guy who I beleive is a very gifted runner with plenty of upside. I obviously don't think Turner is going to have a ypc as high as his career avg was as a back up. But Turner breaks so many tackles and will have plenty of big runs this season that his ypc will still be better than many of his doubters will project.

-18 rushes a game x by 16= 288

-2 catches a game x by 16= 32

-288 rushes x 4.5 YPC = 1296 yards

-32 catches x 6.5ypc= 208 yards

-TD's 8 rushing and 1 receiving

1296 yards rushing

208 yards receiving

1504 total yards

9 total TD's

 

[Ministry of Pain]

256 carries, 900 yds, 5 TD, 30 receptions, 240 yds, 1 TD

1,140 yds and 6 TD...not optimistic about a swiss cheese OL, not much at WR and TE, and the QB situation is abysmal right now.

 

[Carter_Can_Fly]

256 carries, 900 yds, 5 TD, 30 receptions, 240 yds, 1 TD1,140 yds and 6 TD...not optimistic about a swiss cheese OL, not much at WR and TE, and the QB situation is abysmal right now.

Do you really think his ypc is going to be 3.5?12 RB's received over 250 carries last season. The lowest ypc of those 12 was Thomas Jones at 3.6 on a terrible running line with the Jets.In 2006 17 RB's had over 250 carries and only one of them E. James had a ypc at 3.4In 2005 17 RB's had over 250 carries and not one of them had a ypc as low as 3.5.In 2004 17 RB's had over 250 carries and only one of them had a ypc at 3.5 (Emmit Smith)So over the last 4 years there has been 3 RB's that have had 250 rushing attempts average a ypc of 3.5. Therefore you are predicting Turner to be that guy this year.

 

[TS Garp]

I've really enjoyed watching Turner here in San Diego, and I believe he's the real deal. He's a bruiser who runs hard, breaks tackles, and has deceiving speed. I was hoping that he'd end up in a place like Seattle or even Houston, where I think he could've been very successful, but Atlanta it is (who could've turned down that money?).

Ability isn't the question with Turner, but the situation in Atlanta leaves a lot to be desired. It's an organization in transition and there are going to be some serious growing pains. The team did take some steps to address what was a horrible offensive line in 2007, but it's still a work-in-progress, and they'll have to learn a new system while trying to come together and build some chemistry. Running behind this line will be quite different than what Turner has grown accustomed to in San Diego. Add to that the fact that he's going to be playing with a rookie QB who will be learning on the job, he has Norwood lurking in the background to steal carries, and the Falcons have a horrendous defense which makes it hard to stay with the run (Atlanta ran the ball 385 times last season -- 4th lowest in the NFL).

I do think you'll see the Falcons try to establish a power running game with Turner to take pressure off of Ryan, and I don't expect Norwood to get more than 10 carries a game, for the most part. I think they want Turner to run hard and often. The bigger questions are can the line block well and open some holes for Turner, can Ryan at least keep defenses honest, and can the defense keep the games close enough for the offense to stay with the run. You'd love for the answer to be yes to at least 2 of the 3 on most weeks, but my guess is that Turner will often have to settle for one, and sometimes none. It's going to be an uphill battle for him most weeks and he should have his ups and downs. He still has upside based on his talent, but he's in a poor situation and has a lot to overcome.

My projection:

280 rushes, 1120 yards, 8 td's, 32 receptions, 280 yards, 1 td.

 

[fridayfrenzy]

I will call these my safe projections for a guy who I beleive is a very gifted runner with plenty of upside. I obviously don't think Turner is going to have a ypc as high as his career avg was as a back up. But Turner breaks so many tackles and will have plenty of big runs this season that his ypc will still be better than many of his doubters will project.

-18 rushes a game x by 16= 288

-2 catches a game x by 16= 32

-288 rushes x 4.5 YPC = 1296 yards

-32 catches x 6.5ypc= 208 yards

-TD's 8 rushing and 1 receiving

1296 yards rushing

208 yards receiving

1504 total yards

9 total TD's

Only 5 RBs had as many total yards as you are projecting for Turner next year.

Only 8 RBs had that many carries last year.

So you are projecting him to be in the #6-#10 RB range?

Guess again. Those are mighty lofty #s for a RB who will be his first time in a starting role and on a terrible offense.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

256 carries, 900 yds, 5 TD, 30 receptions, 240 yds, 1 TD1,140 yds and 6 TD...not optimistic about a swiss cheese OL, not much at WR and TE, and the QB situation is abysmal right now.

Do you really think his ypc is going to be 3.5?12 RB's received over 250 carries last season. The lowest ypc of those 12 was Thomas Jones at 3.6 on a terrible running line with the Jets.In 2006 17 RB's had over 250 carries and only one of them E. James had a ypc at 3.4In 2005 17 RB's had over 250 carries and not one of them had a ypc as low as 3.5.In 2004 17 RB's had over 250 carries and only one of them had a ypc at 3.5 (Emmit Smith)So over the last 4 years there has been 3 RB's that have had 250 rushing attempts average a ypc of 3.5. Therefore you are predicting Turner to be that guy this year.

Given that he's a first year starter on a horrible offense with a rookie QB, is that really a huge limb to go out on?

 

[The Man with the Plan]

Unproven starting running back playing behind a horrid offensive line and a bad team overall. I'm not seeing the upside here. If there's one positive about Michael Turner he should get most of the carries so he'll have plenty of opportunity if he can handle the workload.

1100 yards rushing 5 TD 150 yards receiving 0 TD.

#3 running back going for the price of a #2 running back. Not interested.

 

[by_the_sea_wannabe]

265 1246 7

20 120 0

A #2 rb, which level remains to be seen. Has shown the ability to be top level #2, but the situation screams low #2.

 

[Yitbos69]

290/1250/8 25/240/2

 

[eric rymer]

It's really hard to have high expectations for the guy knowing what he is up against in ATL. I think he'll see alot of REC to help out his QB and that line

255-1150-7 / 50-450-2

 

[Banger]

Unfortunately, MT couldn't have landed in a worse place. The team is in a total do-over and although he'll be the workhorse in the offense I don't see a lot of upside this year.

275-1045-6

22-150-0

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Unfortunately, MT couldn't have landed in a worse place. The team is in a total do-over and although he'll be the workhorse in the offense I don't see a lot of upside this year. 275-1045-622-150-0

 

[shadyridr]

Unfortunately, MT couldn't have landed in a worse place. The team is in a total do-over and although he'll be the workhorse in the offense I don't see a lot of upside this year. 275-1045-622-150-0

Alot of people sniffing glue in this thread. ATL is horrible. Just look at Frank Gore's year last year. Turner will have alot of bad games when teams just shut him down and his TD #s will be limited.

 

[gianmarco]

Turner is going to be a guy to target mid-late season if he starts off slow. Granted, owners who have him have probably been holding onto him for a while, but a decent offer might pry him loose and he may pay dividends when Atlanta starts to turn it around.

 

[T Bell]

256 carries, 900 yds, 5 TD, 30 receptions, 240 yds, 1 TD1,140 yds and 6 TD...not optimistic about a swiss cheese OL, not much at WR and TE, and the QB situation is abysmal right now.

Do you really think his ypc is going to be 3.5?12 RB's received over 250 carries last season. The lowest ypc of those 12 was Thomas Jones at 3.6 on a terrible running line with the Jets.In 2006 17 RB's had over 250 carries and only one of them E. James had a ypc at 3.4In 2005 17 RB's had over 250 carries and not one of them had a ypc as low as 3.5.In 2004 17 RB's had over 250 carries and only one of them had a ypc at 3.5 (Emmit Smith)So over the last 4 years there has been 3 RB's that have had 250 rushing attempts average a ypc of 3.5. Therefore you are predicting Turner to be that guy this year.

Given that he's a first year starter on a horrible offense with a rookie QB, is that really a huge limb to go out on?

Since when has being a first-year starter hurt a RB?

 

[bostonfred]

I bet Michael Turner gets to run the ball out for the Falcons in all four of their wins this year, at least if he's not sharing those carries.

 

[T Bell]

New offense, rookie QB, poor o-line. That hurts all around.

270-1053-5

45-293-1

He'll have more value in a PPR league, but only so much.

 

[TheDirtyWord]

I'll caveat this by stating up from, I'm a Falcons homer. But I think alot of people are shoveling dirt on the Atlanta Falcons 2008 season a bit prematurely. This is not to say I see play-offs in their future, but it is to say that the idea the Falcons won't be able to make progress and rebuild a strong running attack is short sighted.

For one, this is a team that amidst the Petrino and Vick mess won 4 games. Call it what you will, but the Miami Dolphins won one game in 2007 and prior to his getting injured, Ronnie Brown was the best FF RB in football. Secondly, break down the Falcons 2007 season and you'll see this:

First 9 games: outscored by a total of 47 points.

Next 5 games: outscored by a total of 108 points. After the 4th game of this stretch Petrino resigned.

The point I'm making is that the wheels were coming off Petrino's bus pretty quickly come mid-season, but prior to that - with all the Falcons were dealing with, they remained relatively competitive...certainly competitive enough to commit to a running game.

Mike Mularkey has been brought in as the OC. If Mularkey does anything, it's run the ball and run the ball some more. I see a minimum of 450 rushing attempts for the Falcons as a whole. While Jerious Norwood is a gifted change of pace back, he gets nicked up pretty easily and has not proven he can be extended past 120 carries. I think 275-300 carries is a reasonable number to expect for Turner.

One other thing - Warrick Dunn logged a 3.1 YPC in 2007. However, in his last 11 games of 2006 Dunn only rushed for 629 yards at a 3.3 YPC clip. This was with Vick at the helm and the Falcons O-Line being extremely familiar with the ZBS. IMO, Dunn was as big a factor to the Falcons not being able to run the ball as anything. By comparison, Norwood went for 172/1020 during that time. As such, I'm not sold on the 'Falcons can't block' theory.

Prediction: 287 carries, 1222 yards 4.26 YPC, 8 TD's; 13 receptions 86 yards, 0 TD's.

 

[css2373]

Atlanta's defense last year was pretty bad and doesn't look good this year, unless the new staff does something special. So, ATL has the potential to be behind early in most games and not on the field for too long, especially with a rookie QB killing drives with his incompletions. I can see him having some 20+ carry games and some below 10 carries a game.

280 carries, 3.8 ypc

1064 yards

5 tds

20 recs

170 yds

RB3 for me.

 

[perry147]

Atlanta is going to run ball an insane amount this year with a rookie QB with a very weak OL and losing their best pass catcher in Crumpler. I am going out on a limb here and think he gets 300 carries this year. If Atlanta thought Norwood could be the bell cow then they wouldn't have paid so much to sign Turner. They will run him into the ground for the next year or two while Matt Ryan adjusts to the NFL. His redraft value is much better than dynasty value because many people worry about his age (Feb 13, 1982) but I think this might be a bit misleading because most backs this age have much more wear on them.

300 carries 3.7 ypc

1110 Yards

7 TDs

22 rec

181 yards

 

[Team Legacy]

Now, you can't predict the future without first looking at the past. Let's start with the Baseline -

Warrick Dunn -

228 carries - 16th in the NFL.

714 rushing yards - 28th in the NFL.

That's an UGLY 3.13 yards per carry. Was this the offensive line's fault? I'm sure some of it was, but let's take a closer look.

Jerious Norwood - 102 carries for 615 yards - uh oh... A whopping 6.02 yards per carry! Kind of throws some holes in that offensive line argument. Norwood's stats actually remind me of my past research into Frank Gore's rookie season. Many people thought his high YPC was due to him being the 3rd down guy. The following year Gore showed us all what he was capable of with that same offensive line that yielded Barlow's paltry 3.29 YPC. I see a slight increase in his opportunities this year, from 30% to 35%.

When looking at Michael Turner, the glaring factor to consider is this - 6 years, 34.5 million bucks. You don't get that type of money unless they're planning on you being the workhorse of the offense PERIOD. Trying to determine what Turner's role in the offense will be is as easy as listening to Falcons GM Thomas Dimitroff:

“We are pleased to be able to add a very talented running back and a player who has produced at a high level in this League when given the opportunity. We think he’s ready to take the next step and have a more prominent role in an offense and we are happy he decided that opportunity is going to be here in Atlanta.”

When a club pays a guy 30+ million, he's coming in to be a WORK-HORSE. Thomas Jones ring a bell? 310 carries, and that was only 20+ million, imagine what Turner's role will be!

Michael Turner - 260 carries sounds VERY reasonable as a 15% increase to Dunn's carries, but I wouldn't be shocked to see 280. People, Edgerrin James led the league in carries with 325 and still didn't crack 3.8 YPC. My point being, the line needs work, but the coaching staff is going to commit to the run. Seems to reason a young back with fresh legs will be given every chance to carry this run-first squad. Jets, Titans, Ravens, Bills -- all run first teams -- all had backs with 280 carries.

Final projection - 65/35 split for carries with Norwood -

270 carries 1134 yards 7TDs - 4.2 YPC -- 29 receptions 218 yards 1 TD - Top 15RB area

 

[ukshane]

People act like Turner has been a backup his entire career and his statistics are an anomoly based on clean-up duty. He was a starter for 2 years at Northern Illinois and in a 12 game season he averaged 324 carries, 1781 rushing yards, 16.5 rushing TD's and 5.5 yards per carry.

 

[Carter_Can_Fly]

I will call these my safe projections for a guy who I beleive is a very gifted runner with plenty of upside. I obviously don't think Turner is going to have a ypc as high as his career avg was as a back up. But Turner breaks so many tackles and will have plenty of big runs this season that his ypc will still be better than many of his doubters will project.

-18 rushes a game x by 16= 288

-2 catches a game x by 16= 32

-288 rushes x 4.5 YPC = 1296 yards

-32 catches x 6.5ypc= 208 yards

-TD's 8 rushing and 1 receiving

1296 yards rushing

208 yards receiving

1504 total yards

9 total TD's

Only 5 RBs had as many total yards as you are projecting for Turner next year.

Only 8 RBs had that many carries last year.

So you are projecting him to be in the #6-#10 RB range?

Guess again. Those are mighty lofty #s for a RB who will be his first time in a starting role and on a terrible offense.

-In 2007 8 RB's had at least 1400 combined yards-In 2006 10 RB's had at least 1400 combined yards

-In 2005 12 RB's had at least 1400 combined yards

-In 2004 10 RB's had at least 1400 combined yards

Do I think Tuner in 2008 could be 1 of 10 backs in the NFL to get 1400-1500 combined yards? Yes. His situation is not ideal but he will be given plenty of opportunity to reach that goal.

In 2006 22 RB's ran for over 1000 yards.

In 2005 16 RB's ran for over 1000 yards.

In 2004 18 RB's ran for over 1000 yards.

Turner, Barring injury will rush for over 1000 yards. And I dont think 1250 is to lofty a projection for how good Turner is.

Turner may have his first starting gig in the NFL, but he is by no means a rookie.

 

[Jason Wood]

I figured Turner would be a fascinating Spotlight this year b/c he's really the only marquis offensive free agent to change teams. To my mind, people questioning Turner's ability to handle a full workload aren't being realistic about the situation. He's 5'10" and 237 pounds. He was a work horse in college and nothing about his running style or build suggests he can't take a pounding. This isn't a situation where the Chargers just never committed to Turner as an every down back, he just so happened to be playing behind THE best back in the league and one who also happens to be at his best when he's getting the majority of the touches.

As others have pointed out, Turner is going to be given every opportunity to be a work horse. They didn't target him at the start of free agency and heap a $34.5mm deal on him just to platoon him with Jerious Norwood. This isn't about whether you THINK Norwood deserves half the touches, this is about what's going to happen; and I just can't see Turner not being the focal point of this offense, by design.

The real gating factor, IMHO, is whether Atlanta will be able to give Turner the touches on a consistent basis. ATL ranked 29th defensively in yards and points allowed, and I'm not sure they haven't gotten worse at least for a season until the young additions can make their mark. No team with that kind of defensive ranking is able to run the ball 500+ times usually; regardless of whether the coaches would prefer to. So I'm going to have to assume that it will be VERY hard to project Turner for more than 250-280 carries, TOPS this season.

Another major X-factor relative to his fantasy outlook is whether he'll a) get goal line chances and b ) what he'll do with them. Turner is an unproven NFL commodity at the goal line; although there's no reason to think he can't be effective; we just don't know yet.

Overall I see Turner as a reasonable bet to be a top-20 back but it's going to be hard to project him as a RB1 sleeper unless a) The Falcons offensive line is much better than we suspect and b ) Jerious Norwood is used much less than I suspect.

 

[Hairy Snowman]

Unfortunately, MT couldn't have landed in a worse place. The team is in a total do-over and although he'll be the workhorse in the offense I don't see a lot of upside this year. 275-1045-622-150-0

 

[T Bell]

Unfortunately, MT couldn't have landed in a worse place. The team is in a total do-over and although he'll be the workhorse in the offense I don't see a lot of upside this year. 275-1045-622-150-0

Don't you guys think he's going to get more receptions and receiving yards than that, especially with a rookie QB presumably checking down a lot in an offense that would figure to be trailing often?

 

[Banger]

Unfortunately, MT couldn't have landed in a worse place. The team is in a total do-over and although he'll be the workhorse in the offense I don't see a lot of upside this year.

275-1045-6

22-150-0

Don't you guys think he's going to get more receptions and receiving yards than that, especially with a rookie QB presumably checking down a lot in an offense that would figure to be trailing often?

TBD since it's a new situation but I wouldn't necessarily count on it. It's hard to tell what Turner's receiving ability is since he didn't have that role with the Chargers and he was behind arguably the top receiving RB in the league. MT has only had 11 CAREER receptions in 4 years though as compared with Norwood's 40 in two years. So looking at the situation objectively you'd have to think that Norwood would inherit the receiving back role.

 

[Jon_Moore]

Fantasy wise, Turner put himself into a tough situation, but he's guaranteed himself the bulk of the touches, which he would have struggled to find most other places. We haven't seen a lot of him as a receiver out of the backfield since he turned pro, so that's hard to gauge, but his ability as a runner is exceptional. He's one of the bigger starting backs in the league, great strength to break tackles, and he's shown the ability to break the long one and go the distance. He appears to be one of the more complete packages at RB at the moment. That said, I'm sure Norwood gets on the field, but I can't see a 50/50 or even 60/40 split.

That said, Atlanta's defense is going to struggle to keep them in games. They'll be airing it out quite a b it again this year, and that will keep Turner from 20 carries a game.

296 carries

1215 yards

6 tds

18 receptions

122 yards

0 receiving tds

 

[T Bell]

Unfortunately, MT couldn't have landed in a worse place. The team is in a total do-over and although he'll be the workhorse in the offense I don't see a lot of upside this year.

275-1045-6

22-150-0

Don't you guys think he's going to get more receptions and receiving yards than that, especially with a rookie QB presumably checking down a lot in an offense that would figure to be trailing often?

TBD since it's a new situation but I wouldn't necessarily count on it. It's hard to tell what Turner's receiving ability is since he didn't have that role with the Chargers and he was behind arguably the top receiving RB in the league. MT has only had 11 CAREER receptions in 4 years though as compared with Norwood's 40 in two years. So looking at the situation objectively you'd have to think that Norwood would inherit the receiving back role.

They're going to be throwing a lot on 2nd down IMHO, and moreover my impression is that Norwood is a much inferior pass blocker to Turner, though I welcome someone to correct me on that point. I think Turner's going to be in the game on a lot of passing plays.

 

[Jason Wood]

Two things to remember about the Norwood situation:

1) Both Mike Smith and Mike Mularkey know firsthand how valuable a committee approach can be on offense

2) Norwood is the only RB in NFL history to average more than 6 yards per rush with at least 200 career carries

He'll be used, but not at the expense of building the offense around Turner.

 

[jurb26]

I've never been a big believer in Turner and I don't care for his situation in Atl all that much to boot. As previously mentioned, Norwood is not going to go away just because Turner is there. Atl has little in the passing game to take pressure off the running game and a rookie QB likely to start. This tells me that teams will likely look to make the rookie beat them and take away the run. Unless this Oline goes through a miraculous transition to one of the better units in the NFL (I guess anything is possible) I see struggles for Turner. He will get touches and that alone should mean decent stats, just not great.

285 carries, 1120 yds, 6 TDs

20 receptions, 140 yds

 

[MAC_32]

Reasons not to like Turner

-Teams with exceptionally bad QB's normally have a negative impact on that teams' running backs' production

-Atlanta may have the smallest OLine in the league and are trying to implement a power running scheme, their third new scheme in as many seasons - this could get ugly

-Mike Mularkey is their OC, oh God.

Regardless of if you think he can handle the load and if he's good or not he's not worth the going rate. Only elite talents like LT can be productive on bad offenses, I don't think Turner's an elite talent...it's too bad, I liked the guy before he ended up in Atlanta.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

As previously mentioned, Norwood is not going to go away just because Turner is there. Atl has little in the passing game to take pressure off the running game and a rookie QB likely to start. This tells me that teams will likely look to make the rookie beat them and take away the run. Unless this Oline goes through a miraculous transition to one of the better units in the NFL (I guess anything is possible) I see struggles for Turner. He will get touches and that alone should mean decent stats, just not great.

I personally like Turner's ability to be a good NFL RB, but in this terrible situation only an elite RB could be a fantasy force. Anything is possible in today's NFL, but the Falcons are really pretty close to rock-bottom, and I think Turner will struggle facing eight defenders in the box all season. Add in a good COP in Norwood, and I think Turner will end up finishing around 20th among RBs with: 250 carries for 1050 yards, 30 catches for 200 yards, and 7 total TDs.

 

[mdog1967]

Unproven starting running back playing behind a horrid offensive line and a bad team overall. I'm not seeing the upside here. If there's one positive about Michael Turner he should get most of the carries so he'll have plenty of opportunity if he can handle the workload.

1100 yards rushing 5 TD 150 yards receiving 0 TD.

#3 running back going for the price of a #2 running back. Not interested.

The horrid offensive line myth. Dunn carried the ball 228 times for 719 yards avg 3.15. Norwood carried the ball 102 times for 615 yards averaging 6.5 yards per carry. Historical Data Dominator · Data Dominator

Per Football guys Data Dominator on just Running Backs on the Team. I dont count the Rushing yards by QB's.

The Falcons were 17th in average

17 2007--2007 ATL 354 1430 4.04 71 7 240.10

28th in Rushing attempts



28 2007--2007 ATL 354 1430 4.04 71 7 240.10

25th In rushing Yards



25 2007--2007 ATL 354 1430 4.04 71 7 240.10

1. If you don't consistently run the ball because your either behind or you insist on using a running back who clearly had trouble last year getting out of his stance let alone run, then your line will never get a chance to dominate the 3rd and 4th quarters.

2. Stats are what they are - you see Cat I see Dog, Take away from it what you will.

3. The Falcons biggest problem along the O-Line with run Blocking was the clearly inept QB play, low number of attempts

and RB W. Dunn.

4. Norwood clearly demonstrates for the Second year in a row with near Identical stats that the O-line was more than adequate to Run Block for a solid Running back. Dunn was and is Done.

 

[Jason Wood]

I don't the the offensive line will be as much as a gating factor as some expect, for the following reasons:

• OT Sam Baker, a 1st rounder from USC, should start immediately

• FB Ovie Mughelli is one of the better blocking backs in the league

• New TE Ben Hartsock is a punishing blocker

• The coaches plan to use a combination of zone- and gap-blocking schemes

• OL coach Paul Boudreau has 21 years experience, he replaces Mike Summers who was a rookie NFL coach last season

 

[Portis Homer]

Am I the only one having Kevan Barlow flashbacks?

 

[Jason Wood]

Am I the only one having Kevan Barlow flashbacks?

Probably not, but that's human nature. If you are down on someone (justifiably or not), you're going to subconsciously seek out a comparison that fits your downside view; and conversely you would be doing the same if you thought he were going to be studly. The truth lies somewhere in between.

 

[Maurile Tremblay]

2) Norwood is the only RB in NFL history to average more than 6 yards per rush with at least 200 career carries

Michael Turner was actually pretty close. Over his first 200 carries, he averaged 5.85 yards per carry.I think Mark Wimer made a good point in the recent Roundtable. The Falcons' OL actually looked pretty good in their run-blocking last year except when Warrick Dunn was carrying the ball.

The Chargers averaged more yards per carry than the Falcons, but that was largely because LT was the main ballcarrier for the Chargers while Dunn was the main ballcarrier for the Falcons, and LT is just better than Dunn. If you reduce the impact of those primary ballcarriers by reducing the workload of each by half (but still keeping their same YPC), the Falcons actually averaged more yards per rush as a team than the Chargers did.

So it's not obvious that the Falcons' OL was worse at run-blocking last year than the Chargers' OL was.

I'm not downgrading Turner's projected YPC, therefore, as a result of his changing teams.

I've got Turner at 4.82 yards per carry (same as I'd project him for if he'd remained in San Diego) and Norwood at 4.96 yards per carry. With those two guys toting the rock, Atlanta could have a very effective rushing attack.

Full projections to come . . .

 

[MAC_32]

I don't the the offensive line will be as much as a gating factor as some expect, for the following reasons:• OT Sam Baker, a 1st rounder from USC, should start immediately

1st round tackles don't usually perform well out of the gate, Joe Thomas was the exception to the rule, besides Baker's not looked at as another elite tackle; just a good one.I'll add, Baker got a lot of help blocking at USC, something their most recent OT prospect did not have much of, Winston Justice. We all saw that Sunday night ownage from Osi on Justice last year, I have some serious doubts about Baker, especially this year.One other thing to consider, teams don't tend to run much when they're down big in the 2nd half. Given that it looks like Atlanta's defense will be bad again this year I see many weeks in which Turner gets 7-10 carries in the 1st half and then nothing in the 2nd because they've dug themselves too big of a hole.

 

[zamboni]

One other thing to consider, teams don't tend to run much when they're down big in the 2nd half. Given that it looks like Atlanta's defense will be bad again this year I see many weeks in which Turner gets 7-10 carries in the 1st half and then nothing in the 2nd because they've dug themselves too big of a hole.

Not to single you out, but this gets mentioned a lot. Sure, the Falcons may not make a quantum leap this year, but that doesn't mean they can't markedly improve or at least stay competitive in many games. Look at Cleveland last year or the Jets the year before as just a few examples - things move pretty quickly.

 

[TheDirtyWord]

I don't the the offensive line will be as much as a gating factor as some expect, for the following reasons:• OT Sam Baker, a 1st rounder from USC, should start immediately• FB Ovie Mughelli is one of the better blocking backs in the league• New TE Ben Hartsock is a punishing blocker• The coaches plan to use a combination of zone- and gap-blocking schemes• OL coach Paul Boudreau has 21 years experience, he replaces Mike Summers who was a rookie NFL coach last season

I think people are sleeping on the Falcons simply being competitive this season. For whatever reason, they've taken on the role of 2-14 team that will lose their games by an average of 20 points. It wasn't just that Petrino was in over his head last year - his entire coaching staff was since he brought a lot of them over from Louisville. Like I said above...this is not a play-off team, but after being under the thumb of Petrino and having distance put between themselves and Vick, I could see this being a 6-7 win outfit and competitive throughout the year.

 

[Banger]

I don't the the offensive line will be as much as a gating factor as some expect, for the following reasons:• OT Sam Baker, a 1st rounder from USC, should start immediately• FB Ovie Mughelli is one of the better blocking backs in the league• New TE Ben Hartsock is a punishing blocker• The coaches plan to use a combination of zone- and gap-blocking schemes• OL coach Paul Boudreau has 21 years experience, he replaces Mike Summers who was a rookie NFL coach last season

I think people are sleeping on the Falcons simply being competitive this season. For whatever reason, they've taken on the role of 2-14 team that will lose their games by an average of 20 points. It wasn't just that Petrino was in over his head last year - his entire coaching staff was since he brought a lot of them over from Louisville. Like I said above...this is not a play-off team, but after being under the thumb of Petrino and having distance put between themselves and Vick, I could see this being a 6-7 win outfit and competitive throughout the year.

I just don't see many impact players on either side of the ball. They will probably be better than last year but I still think they are a bottom 4-5 team.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

Unfortunately, MT couldn't have landed in a worse place. The team is in a total do-over and although he'll be the workhorse in the offense I don't see a lot of upside this year. 275-1045-622-150-0

Don't you guys think he's going to get more receptions and receiving yards than that, especially with a rookie QB presumably checking down a lot in an offense that would figure to be trailing often?

he's not a very good pass catcher

 

[Bob Henry]

Many good points on both sides of the MT argument in this thread already. I'll offer my own take based on the projections I've made for the Falcons team and their running game with Turner and Norwood.

As a team, the Falcons ran 531 and 537 times in 2005 and 2006, but only 385 times last year. The balance of the offense changed considerably; they threw the ball 451 times in 2005, 416 times in 2006 and 555 (!) times last year.

Lots of factors in play, chief among them, no Vick at QB and a big-time change in coaching philosophy last year. I expect the pendulum to swing back in the other direction. I may be downplaying how much they'll emphasize the running game, but I have projected 445 rushing attempts and 505 passing attempts. The inverse of this ratio might actually be what happens, but I think that will be offset somewhat by a defense that will continue to struggle and an offensive line that will take a while to get a new system in place and "gel".

As for Turner, I expect him to get the majority of the carries, but Norwood to see more carries than last year. So, I have Turner with 241 carries to Norwood's 130. I also believe that Norwood will catch a few more passes than Turner (29 to 26). Turner will get the bulk of the goal-line work, but Norwood will break a couple longer runs for TDs.

Having looked at my projections for Turner a dozen times already this year, I think you could fairly say that I'm a little conservative with him. In other words, if the Falcons runass ratio is higher than I have projected, then Turner will undoubtedly handle the rock more.

Rushing: 241 attempts, 1029 yards, 4.27 ypc, 6 TDs

Receiving: 26 catches, 175 yards, 6.7 ypc, 0 TDs

By comparison I have Norwood as follows:

Rushing: 130 attempts, 655 yards, 5.04 ypc, 2 TDs

Receiving: 29 catches, 271 yards, 9.4 ypc, 1 TDs

I know Mike Smith wasn't the OC for Jacksonville, but I've read where he has made that comparison and that he envisions Turner/Norwood as having the ability to give the Falcons offense similar production knowing that the two Falcons backs are vastly different in style than what Taylor/MJD bring to the Jags backfield.

I didn't mold projections using the same distribution that the Jags use, but I increased Norwood's rushing attempts by about 20% and the rest go to Turner. I expect he'll get around 15-18 carries per game; more if the Falcons runass ratio is above 1 and more if the defense and offensive line improve more than I expect.

Again, consider my projections conservative, but they place Turner as the 24th RB in standard scoring and 23rd using PPR scoring. If anything, I may increase those projections over the summer if I get a better feeling about the Falcons offense. I'm guarded knowing the o-line has to learn a new system, new coaches, poor QB situation regardless of how it shakes out and the likelihood that they may need to pass more than they like until their defense, o-line and QB play improve.

You might see a scenario where as the Falcons improve, Turner becomes an excellent 2nd half player.

My $0.02 worth

 

[MAC_32]

One other thing to consider, teams don't tend to run much when they're down big in the 2nd half. Given that it looks like Atlanta's defense will be bad again this year I see many weeks in which Turner gets 7-10 carries in the 1st half and then nothing in the 2nd because they've dug themselves too big of a hole.

Not to single you out, but this gets mentioned a lot. Sure, the Falcons may not make a quantum leap this year, but that doesn't mean they can't markedly improve or at least stay competitive in many games. Look at Cleveland last year or the Jets the year before as just a few examples - things move pretty quickly.

If you are willing to go out on a limb and say Atlanta will be competitive you're entitled to that, but I don't see anything on that team that indicates success in 08. The Browns were in year 3 of their rebuilding project, they had talent - most of it had just been injured, and we had awful QB play. If you think an Atlanta QB can come out and Derek Anderson the league and their young, raw, and talent impaired team can play over their head you can believe that. I think you're either crazy or an Atlanta homer, but that's beside the point.Just keep in mind, yes Cleveland came from nowhere last year, but what about all of the perceived bad teams that played badly last year? Cleveland was the minority - the masses considered Atlanta, Detroit, Miami, Oakland, and Kansas City bad teams and they proved them all right. If you're going to pick on a perceived bad team to exceed expectations I think there are better options than Atlanta, I'm thinking St Louis, Miami, or even Oakland are much better bets to significantly exceed expectations than Atlanta.