Player Spotlight: Michael Turner (1 Viewer)

[Jason Wood]

2009 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. Last year, we published more than 120 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters. This year will be no different.

Each week we will post a list of players to be discussed. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discussion expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Michael Turner, RB, Atlanta Falcons

Player Page Link: Michael Turner Player Page

Each article will include:

Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads
FBG Projections
Consensus Member ProjectionsThe Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

Focus commentary on the player in question, and your expectations for said player
Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
To be included in the final synopsis and consensus outlook, you MUST provide projections for the playerProjections should include (at a minimum):

For QBs: Attempts, Completions, Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDsNow let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

 

[Darker Knight]

350/1575/13 20/140/0 another good season for MT

 

[perry147]

The 377 carries last year are kind of worrisome but he has relative low mileage career wise since he was a backup to LT while in SD before last year.

I think he repeats most of what he did last year but a little bit less yards, the passing game will mature with Ryan but make no mistake this Falcons team is a run first attack. PPR leagues might want to take note that he only caught 6 passes all of last year.

My projection:

1500 Yards and 16 TD on 315 carries which puts him in the elite tier of RB in 2009.

 

[The Man with the Plan]

350/1575/13 20/140/0 another good season for MT

20 catches? That's more than 3 times he had last season. He caught 6 passes in 2008. He's a phenomenal player but he has to be great running the ball or he's not going to be worth the pick. He's the type of player where if he's not getting it done on the ground you can forget about him that week. I liked him better when he was a #2 back.He had 12 TD's from 5 yards or less last season. The addition of Tony Gonzalez could take away some of those goal-line opportunities for him.

 

[Darker Knight]

350/1575/13 20/140/0 another good season for MT

20 catches? That's more than 3 times he had last season. He caught 6 passes in 2008. He's a phenomenal player but he has to be great running the ball or he's not going to be worth the pick. He's the type of player where if he's not getting it done on the ground you can forget about him that week. I liked him better when he was a #2 back.He had 12 TD's from 5 yards or less last season. The addition of Tony Gonzalez could take away some of those goal-line opportunities for him.

Sorry for projecting more catches than he had last season......20 catches is not very many even if it is 3 times what he had last season....I just see that as the next step for him being more involved in the passing game....I missed your projections in your post.....

 

[puckalicious]

350/1575/13 20/140/0 another good season for MT

20 catches? That's more than 3 times he had last season. He caught 6 passes in 2008. He's a phenomenal player but he has to be great running the ball or he's not going to be worth the pick. He's the type of player where if he's not getting it done on the ground you can forget about him that week. I liked him better when he was a #2 back.He had 12 TD's from 5 yards or less last season. The addition of Tony Gonzalez could take away some of those goal-line opportunities for him.

ATL had only 265 pass completions last year and I see many reasons to expect that to go up - Ryan maturing, adding Gonzo, etc so it isn't that crazy to project barely more than 1 reception per game for Turner. RBs that get that many touches rarely have such a low reception total (only 4 RBs since 1960 w/300+ carries have had less receptions than Turner did last year).That being said I don't expect him to catch that many balls and you're right that the vast majority of his value is on the ground. IMO he's a top-10 lock but will be a little overvalued.350/1500/12

 

[switz]

There is both reason for optimism and concern with Michael Turner. Like DeAngelo Williams, much of his success was dependent on some extremely good games against some extremely bad competition. The edge that Turner has is workload, and offensive improvement.

Last year Turner faced defense after defense stacked against the running game, hoping to force Ryan to win the games and in the process make mistakes. However, as Ryan developed, defensive alignments became more evenly balanced, and we should see even more of that this year, perhaps even tilting to more pass defenses than run defenses.

Still, the sub-4.0 YPC in many games has to leave owners concerned, as well as the heavy workload.

I would expect Turner to improve his performance in many games, maintaining a 4.5 YPC for the season, but more evenly distributed.

Here are my projection:

380 carries, 1700 yards, 15 TDs. 9 receptions, 75 yards, 1 TD.

Note: I fully expect Turner to catch a screen pass and take it in for a TD this year, why? Just a hunch.

 

[H.K.]

Turner averaged over 23 carries for 100 yards rushing and 1 TD each game last season, but what a difference a year makes. If anyone defines the term "That was then, this is now" it is Turner. This season he should be at the top of everyone's do not draft list for 2009 because he'll command a premium and deliver far below his cost.

Start with the QB Ryan, last year he was unproven but now he has a full year under his belt and he has the coach's confidence which will result in a more wide open playbook, as evidenced by the team adding TE Gonzalez (this addition kills Turner's old role in the red zone). As such, expect the Falcon's 434/491 pass-run ratio to be flipped this year.

Another factor in the new look Falcons offense will be the use of Norwood and his expanded role. Norwood is a game changer that Atlanta can now take advantage of because they have a QB that can get him the ball. From bleacherreport.com:

But this season Norwood will likely see less action on kickoffs and more touches on the offense. Last years starter Michael turner rushed 376 to Norwood's 95. Atlanta would like to get Turners carries down and give more to Norwood.

and this...

...consider these backs from the last five seasons and how each of their stats took a dive in the following year after amassing 320+ carries:

2007: Willie Parker had 321 carries for 1,316 yards and 2 touchdowns. The following year, he missed time due to injury and only appeared in 11 games for 791 yards and 5 touchdowns.

2006: Steven Jackson had 1,528 yards and 15 touchdowns. The following year, he missed 4 games due to injury and saw his yard per game average decrease.

2005: Shaun Alexander rushed for 1,880 yards on 370 carries. The following year, he missed 6 games to injury and saw his yard per carry average drop from 5.1 to 3.6.

2004: Corey Dillon rushed for 1,635 yards on 345 carries. The following year he missed 4 games to injury and saw his rushing averages take a decline.

2003: Jamal Lewis rushed for 2,077 yards on 387 carries. The following season, he missed 4 games to injury and saw his yards per carry go from 5.3 to 4.3.

There's a trend here that seems to say that big-time carries one year equals a decline the next.

Each of the backs mentioned above went to the Pro Bowl in their respective years. However, the years that followed saw a decline in either overall production, yards per carry (YPC), or games played.

......

Atlanta has to utilize Michael Turner a bit less if they want to secure his future as their premier back and keep him fresh for the grueling NFL season—Norwood has the ability to be that guy.

.....

Consider this last statistic, courtesy of The Sporting News: between the years 2000-07, running backs who recorded 345 carries or more either suffered a serious injury or saw a dramatic decrease in production—or both in some instances–18 times or roughly 82 percent.

Finally, Turner is coming off a career year in terms of receiving where he hauled in six receptions, it is wise to expect that number to be reduced in 2009 because MT just isn't suited to being a receiver. Erstwhile, Norwood delivers as both a rushing and receiving threat, and will force defenses to pick their poison between him, WR White, & Gonzo. 226 carries

832 yards

5 TD

2 recepts

11 yards

0 TD

 

[puckalicious]

Turner averaged over 23 carries for 100 yards rushing and 1 TD each game last season, but what a difference a year makes. If anyone defines the term "That was then, this is now" it is Turner. This season he should be at the top of everyone's do not draft list for 2009 because he'll command a premium and deliver far below his cost.

Start with the QB Ryan, last year he was unproven but now he has a full year under his belt and he has the coach's confidence which will result in a more wide open playbook, as evidenced by the team adding TE Gonzalez (this addition kills Turner's old role in the red zone). As such, expect the Falcon's 434/491 pass-run ratio to be flipped this year.

Another factor in the new look Falcons offense will be the use of Norwood and his expanded role. Norwood is a game changer that Atlanta can now take advantage of because they have a QB that can get him the ball. From bleacherreport.com:

But this season Norwood will likely see less action on kickoffs and more touches on the offense. Last years starter Michael turner rushed 376 to Norwood's 95. Atlanta would like to get Turners carries down and give more to Norwood.

and this...

...consider these backs from the last five seasons and how each of their stats took a dive in the following year after amassing 320+ carries:

.....

Consider this last statistic, courtesy of The Sporting News: between the years 2000-07, running backs who recorded 345 carries or more either suffered a serious injury or saw a dramatic decrease in production—or both in some instances–18 times or roughly 82 percent.

Finally, Turner is coming off a career year in terms of receiving where he hauled in six receptions, it is wise to expect that number to be reduced in 2009 because MT just isn't suited to being a receiver. Erstwhile, Norwood delivers as both a rushing and receiving threat, and will force defenses to pick their poison between him, WR White, & Gonzo. 226 carries

832 yards

5 TD

2 recepts

11 yards

0 TD

My head is spinning. First it's the 370 carry rule, now it's the 320 carry rule. Oh wait, Sporting News says its the 345 carry rule.... so which is it? I know, it's the "whatever random number satisfies my predetermined conclusion" carry rule. It's total and complete bunk.Every year is the year Norwood is going to have an "expanded role" it seems. Every year he has around 100 carries, but his receptions have been increasing and I think this is where his role will continue to expand. This does not take away from Turner since he doesn't see much action there anyway. So basically you're convinced that after Turner's breakout season, the ATL coaching staff will switch to a 50/50 RBBC with Turner & Norwood. Makes perfect sense.

 

[Sebowski]

I see the Falcons coming back down to earth this year. They will have a losing record, have to pass more, and not have so many goalline opportunities.

Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

295/1150/9/8/60/1

 

[joffer]

My head is spinning. First it's the 370 carry rule, now it's the 320 carry rule. Oh wait, Sporting News says its the 345 carry rule.... so which is it? I know, it's the "whatever random number satisfies my predetermined conclusion" carry rule. It's total and complete bunk.

@ 226 carries

345/1520/11 rushing

10/80/0 receiving

 

[Darker Knight]

Turner averaged over 23 carries for 100 yards rushing and 1 TD each game last season, but what a difference a year makes. If anyone defines the term "That was then, this is now" it is Turner. This season he should be at the top of everyone's do not draft list for 2009 because he'll command a premium and deliver far below his cost.

Start with the QB Ryan, last year he was unproven but now he has a full year under his belt and he has the coach's confidence which will result in a more wide open playbook, as evidenced by the team adding TE Gonzalez (this addition kills Turner's old role in the red zone). As such, expect the Falcon's 434/491 pass-run ratio to be flipped this year.

Another factor in the new look Falcons offense will be the use of Norwood and his expanded role. Norwood is a game changer that Atlanta can now take advantage of because they have a QB that can get him the ball. From bleacherreport.com:

But this season Norwood will likely see less action on kickoffs and more touches on the offense. Last years starter Michael turner rushed 376 to Norwood's 95. Atlanta would like to get Turners carries down and give more to Norwood.

and this...

...consider these backs from the last five seasons and how each of their stats took a dive in the following year after amassing 320+ carries:

2007: Willie Parker had 321 carries for 1,316 yards and 2 touchdowns. The following year, he missed time due to injury and only appeared in 11 games for 791 yards and 5 touchdowns.

2006: Steven Jackson had 1,528 yards and 15 touchdowns. The following year, he missed 4 games due to injury and saw his yard per game average decrease.

2005: Shaun Alexander rushed for 1,880 yards on 370 carries. The following year, he missed 6 games to injury and saw his yard per carry average drop from 5.1 to 3.6.

2004: Corey Dillon rushed for 1,635 yards on 345 carries. The following year he missed 4 games to injury and saw his rushing averages take a decline.

2003: Jamal Lewis rushed for 2,077 yards on 387 carries. The following season, he missed 4 games to injury and saw his yards per carry go from 5.3 to 4.3.

There's a trend here that seems to say that big-time carries one year equals a decline the next.

Each of the backs mentioned above went to the Pro Bowl in their respective years. However, the years that followed saw a decline in either overall production, yards per carry (YPC), or games played.

......

Atlanta has to utilize Michael Turner a bit less if they want to secure his future as their premier back and keep him fresh for the grueling NFL season—Norwood has the ability to be that guy.

.....

Consider this last statistic, courtesy of The Sporting News: between the years 2000-07, running backs who recorded 345 carries or more either suffered a serious injury or saw a dramatic decrease in production—or both in some instances–18 times or roughly 82 percent.

Finally, Turner is coming off a career year in terms of receiving where he hauled in six receptions, it is wise to expect that number to be reduced in 2009 because MT just isn't suited to being a receiver. Erstwhile, Norwood delivers as both a rushing and receiving threat, and will force defenses to pick their poison between him, WR White, & Gonzo. 226 carries

832 yards

5 TD

2 recepts

11 yards

0 TD

I have a few guys that had 320+ rushing attempts and did not see a huge decrease in carries the next season. All the guys you listed were injured the following year. The guys I listed were not. You can always find information to support your view and ignore the information that does not. I guess if you are saying MT is going to get hurt and play only 12 games I can see how you could come up with your projections. If Turner plays in all 15 or 16 games he will exceed 300 carries in 2009.LT 2006 348 carries

2007 325 carries

JLewis 2006 314 carries

2007 298 carries

Edge 2006 337 carries

2007 324 carries

Portis 2007 325 carries

2008 345 carries

T.Jones 2007 310 carries

2008 290 carries

LT 2007 325 carries

2008 292 carries

 

[Sinrman]

It will be very interesting watching him and the Atlanta offense this year. I think adding Gonzo will benefit them immensely, as he adds a whole new dynamic to that offense. Teams can no longer stack the line against Turner, nor always double team White. They have multiple red zone weapons now -- White on the corner toss, Gonzo anywhere, Turner up the middle, or even Jenkins and Norwood will get looks. And heck, Ryan is young and nimble, he might even run a couple in himself.

My thoughts on Turner:

305/1442/15

14/84/0

 

[The Real Yoda]

Consider this last statistic, courtesy of The Sporting News: between the years 2000-07, running backs who recorded 345 carries or more either suffered a serious injury or saw a dramatic decrease in production—or both in some instances–18 times or roughly 82 percent.

Finally, Turner is coming off a career year in terms of receiving where he hauled in six receptions, it is wise to expect that number to be reduced in 2009 because MT just isn't suited to being a receiver. Erstwhile, Norwood delivers as both a rushing and receiving threat, and will force defenses to pick their poison between him, WR White, & Gonzo.

226 carries

832 yards

5 TD

2 recepts

11 yards

0 TD

Is it within the rules to make bets on these forums? Cause i'll take the over!

 

[switz]

Start with the QB Ryan, last year he was unproven but now he has a full year under his belt and he has the coach's confidence which will result in a more wide open playbook, as evidenced by the team adding TE Gonzalez (this addition kills Turner's old role in the red zone). As such, expect the Falcon's 434/491 pass-run ratio to be flipped this year.

How does this hurt Turner? If anything it will open up running lanes for him, as last year defenses stacked the box against the run. Atlanta will still be a run first team, they are built to be a run first team, that won't change.And look at Turner's attempts as Ryan improved over the season - they went up, not down. He had 145 carries the first 8 games, and 232 the second 8 games. Ryan's improvement allowed the team to sustain drives when they were in 3rd and long situations, leading to more attempts for Turner.

Ryan finished the season middle of the pack (18th) in passing attempts, but he actually had only 205 attempts in the first 8 games, and 219 in the second 8 games. So, interestingly, as Ryan passed more, Turner also ran more.

Ryan's passing more is NOT going to decrease Turners attempts... it will have the opposite effect, as was seen last year.

Another factor in the new look Falcons offense will be the use of Norwood and his expanded role. Norwood is a game changer that Atlanta can now take advantage of because they have a QB that can get him the ball. From bleacherreport.com:

But this season Norwood will likely see less action on kickoffs and more touches on the offense. Last years starter Michael turner rushed 376 to Norwood's 95. Atlanta would like to get Turners carries down and give more to Norwood.

Norwood has seen over the last three years 99, 103, and 95 carries. Last season 45 of his carries came in the first 8 games, 50 came in the last 8. Of course we also already know that Turner's carries significantly increased over the last 8 games. So there's no correlation between Norwood's role increasing and Turner's decreasing.And on a side note, you do realize that bleacherreport is written by a bunch of fans like you and I. The information there is fun to read, but absolutely worthless if you are looking for real info.

There's a trend here that seems to say that big-time carries one year equals a decline the next.

Consider this last statistic, courtesy of The Sporting News: between the years 2000-07, running backs who recorded 345 carries or more either suffered a serious injury or saw a dramatic decrease in production—or both in some instances–18 times or roughly 82 percent.

Well you could look at the backs you mentioned, or you could look at a bigger picture...Ricky Williams '02 - 383, '03 - 392

Curtis Martin '98 - 369, '99 - 367, '03 - 323, '04 - 371

Clinton Portis '04 - 343, '05 - 352, '07 - 325, '08 - 342

Stephen Davis '00 - 332, '01 - 356

Shaun Alexander '03 - 326, '04 - 353, '05 - 370

Eddie George '96 - 335, '97 - 357, '98 - 348

Edgerrin James '99 - 369, '00 - 387, '04 - 334, '05 - 360, '06 - 337

Emmitt Smith '94 - 368, '95 - 377

Terrell Davis '96 - 345, '97 - 369, '98 - 392

All of those RBs disprove your magical 320 or 345 cutoff, as all of them had 320 or 345 carry seasons, and then went on to have even more carries the following year.

The other thing to consider, is most of the RBs were at least 29 years old before breaking down. Michael Turner is 27.

They also had had at least back to back seasons with 320 plus carries before breaking down, last season was Turner's first with more than 100.

Finally, Turner is coming off a career year in terms of receiving where he hauled in six receptions, it is wise to expect that number to be reduced in 2009 because MT just isn't suited to being a receiver. Erstwhile, Norwood delivers as both a rushing and receiving threat, and will force defenses to pick their poison between him, WR White, & Gonzo.

So you think him not getting 6 receptions is going to have a HUGE impact on his production? MT, just like I argued in a DA thread, is not one of the players where it's even worthwhile running receptions projections for. It's not the reason he's successful. Give him 0 receptions last year, and guess what - he wouldn't have dropped at all in the rankings.Norwood had 4x the receptions Turner had, and I see him having his biggest impact there. Norwood may see a little increase in carries, maybe even get 120 or so, but it's not going to take away too many of Turner's opportunities.

Also, ATL was middle of the pack in plays from scrimmage, 1, 011 (13th) they clearly could improve in that department, giving both Norwood and Ryan more attempts without touching Turner's at all.

 

[LarryAllen'sJockstrap]

I like Turner, but think he digresses slighty back to the RB 5-10 range. I just can't predict another 375 carries for him and any drop in the running game is going to hurt him as his place in the Falcons passing game appears to be minimal

335 Carries

1450 Yards Rushing

4.35 YPC

13 TDs

11 Receptions

88 Yarsd Receiving

8.0 YPR

0 TDs

 

[rzrback77]

Michael Turner had extraordinary success last year in his first season as a starter. Several had predicted this success for years as he languished behind LT, but most failed to predict it in his first season with the Falcons due to the extremely low expectations there in 08. They had a new system, a new coach, a new QB, and nobody predicted team success so more projections were on the low side for Turner. But did he ever perform. He had 377 rushes, an average of over 23 per game and even with all those carries, he averaged 4.5 ypc for 1699 yards. He did very little in the passing attack, but with 23 rushes per game. he needed some rest some time didn't he?

I still think that Turner will see the lion's share of the carries, but his goal line looks will probably decrease for two reasons. The Falcons will face stiffer division opponents this year and may have fewer scoring chances and they added Gonzo, a redzone efficiency expert.

Overall, Turner has not had a lot of carries as he spent four years backing up LT. However, last season he had 395 carries (including the playoffs) and I see them trying to spell him just a little in 09.

Michael Turner 340 carries 1420 yards 4.2 ypc 10 catches 60 yards and 12 TDs

 

[Bills_Fan11]

My head is spinning. First it's the 370 carry rule, now it's the 320 carry rule. Oh wait, Sporting News says its the 345 carry rule.... so which is it? I know, it's the "whatever random number satisfies my predetermined conclusion" carry rule. It's total and complete bunk.

So these rules would be more credible if there were one universal magic #? There isn't. If that's your point then ok, I doubt anyone is going to argue. But that hardly means heavy workloads for a RB aren't a concern for the following season, as the evidence is plentiful to suggest it's not 'total bunk'. Sounds like a Turner dynasty owner with a predetermined conclusion of his own.

 

[iSnitch]

My head is spinning. First it's the 370 carry rule, now it's the 320 carry rule. Oh wait, Sporting News says its the 345 carry rule.... so which is it? I know, it's the "whatever random number satisfies my predetermined conclusion" carry rule. It's total and complete bunk.

So these rules would be more credible if there were one universal magic #? There isn't. If that's your point then ok, I doubt anyone is going to argue. But that hardly means heavy workloads for a RB aren't a concern for the following season, as the evidence is plentiful to suggest it's not 'total bunk'. Sounds like a Turner dynasty owner with a predetermined conclusion of his own.

Would you care to compare rb's who received heavy loads vs. rb's who didn't receive heavy loads?The fact is, ALL rb's get hurt. It's simply the nature of the game. With each carry they're exposing themselves to the possibility of getting hurt. So the more carries they receive, the more likely they are to get hurt. If a player received 350 carries one season, the coach is going to give him a lot of carries the following season as well.That doesn't mean they're "due" for an injury...just that they have more entries into the injury lotto.

 

[bigmiiiiike]

One thing I find interesting is how almost universally people are projecting DeAngelo Williams to fall back to earth in the TD category, but several people still have Turner in the 15+ range.

I think FFers should always tread lightly with guys who are so dependent on TDs for their points. I learned this lesson about 10 years ago in my first fantasy draft ever when I thought everyone else had lost their minds by letting Lamar Smith of the Dolphins, fresh off a 16 TD season, fall to me at the end of the second round. Needless to say, he did not repeat that level of performance. TD numbers invariably seem to fluctuate, but the yardage production is what tends to give the most realistic basis for gauging future performance. I'm sure it is this reason that the FF world has AP as the near consensus #1 player, as I can't remember a #1 pick in my fantasy football lifetime that has come off of a season with fewer TDs than AP. Fortunately for Turner, he's a yardage beast as well. I think he'll continue to be used heavily, so I'll stick him with 350 carries, 1540 yards, 12 TDs, 10 catches, 50 yards, 0 TDs.

Based on these/similar projections, I think Turner is properly valued in non-ppr leagues, and overvalued by a good bit in ppr leagues.

 

[Darker Knight]

One thing I find interesting is how almost universally people are projecting DeAngelo Williams to fall back to earth in the TD category, but several people still have Turner in the 15+ range.

I think FFers should always tread lightly with guys who are so dependent on TDs for their points. I learned this lesson about 10 years ago in my first fantasy draft ever when I thought everyone else had lost their minds by letting Lamar Smith of the Dolphins, fresh off a 16 TD season, fall to me at the end of the second round. Needless to say, he did not repeat that level of performance. TD numbers invariably seem to fluctuate, but the yardage production is what tends to give the most realistic basis for gauging future performance. I'm sure it is this reason that the FF world has AP as the near consensus #1 player, as I can't remember a #1 pick in my fantasy football lifetime that has come off of a season with fewer TDs than AP. Fortunately for Turner, he's a yardage beast as well. I think he'll continue to be used heavily, so I'll stick him with 350 carries, 1540 yards, 12 TDs, 10 catches, 50 yards, 0 TDs.

Based on these/similar projections, I think Turner is properly valued in non-ppr leagues, and overvalued by a good bit in ppr leagues.

I see this as three fold...1st JStew is in Car....2nd DWilly had 7 TD's of 25 or more yards...and 3rd Dwilly scored more than half of his TD's in 3 of his 16 games. For me these are the reasons I see DWilly will not repeat his 2008 numbers!

 

[Patoons]

With Tony G, he will likely lose some red zone opportunities and thus, TD total reduction. He also had two games that contributed to 7 of his 17 total TDs which greatly inflated his production. Also 2 games with 200+. I don't think we'll see a repeat or anything near 2008 in 2009.

Tony G as a weapon on the offense in the passing game and the maturation of Ryan may limit Turner's carries. Midseason last year Turner was almost certain to have 20-25+ carries. Not sure that will be the case

370+ carries isn't beneficial moving forward regardless of that magic #. He best have rested and iced up quite a bit if he's to get 300+ again in 2009.

Regression is on the horizon for Turner in 2010.

 

[puckalicious]

My head is spinning. First it's the 370 carry rule, now it's the 320 carry rule. Oh wait, Sporting News says its the 345 carry rule.... so which is it? I know, it's the "whatever random number satisfies my predetermined conclusion" carry rule. It's total and complete bunk.

So these rules would be more credible if there were one universal magic #? There isn't. If that's your point then ok, I doubt anyone is going to argue. But that hardly means heavy workloads for a RB aren't a concern for the following season, as the evidence is plentiful to suggest it's not 'total bunk'. Sounds like a Turner dynasty owner with a predetermined conclusion of his own.

I like how anytime someone is confronted with reality this is the comeback. I can only wish he was on my squad.

Every RB is an injury risk, and what happened the previous year has no bearing on the following year (barring serious injury). This has been shown statistically by people that know what they're talking about. Yes, more carries does equal more risk, but it also equals more fantasy points. I'll gladly take the guy that gets the lion's share vs a committee guy.

 

[puckalicious]

One thing I find interesting is how almost universally people are projecting DeAngelo Williams to fall back to earth in the TD category, but several people still have Turner in the 15+ range.I think FFers should always tread lightly with guys who are so dependent on TDs for their points. I learned this lesson about 10 years ago in my first fantasy draft ever when I thought everyone else had lost their minds by letting Lamar Smith of the Dolphins, fresh off a 16 TD season, fall to me at the end of the second round. Needless to say, he did not repeat that level of performance. TD numbers invariably seem to fluctuate, but the yardage production is what tends to give the most realistic basis for gauging future performance. I'm sure it is this reason that the FF world has AP as the near consensus #1 player, as I can't remember a #1 pick in my fantasy football lifetime that has come off of a season with fewer TDs than AP. Fortunately for Turner, he's a yardage beast as well. I think he'll continue to be used heavily, so I'll stick him with 350 carries, 1540 yards, 12 TDs, 10 catches, 50 yards, 0 TDs. Based on these/similar projections, I think Turner is properly valued in non-ppr leagues, and overvalued by a good bit in ppr leagues.

Isn't it obvious that Dwill has to compete with Stewart, while Turner has nobody to compete with? I don't consider Norwood and his 100 carries a threat. Dwill & Stewart are used in the exact same roles and rotate carries for the most part even though Dwill probably gets 60% of it. Turner and Norwood are complimentary, with Norwood being the 3rd down/pass catching option with Turner being the 1st/2nd down and goal line option. Pretty easy to see who has the better odds at getting more TDs.

 

[Tanner9919]

The 377 carries last year are kind of worrisome but he has relative low mileage career wise since he was a backup to LT while in SD before last year.

I think he repeats most of what he did last year but a little bit less yards, the passing game will mature with Ryan but make no mistake this Falcons team is a run first attack. PPR leagues might want to take note that he only caught 6 passes all of last year.

My projection:

1500 Yards and 16 TD on 315 carries which puts him in the elite tier of RB in 2009.

Rotoworlds new fantasy mag has an interesting article about this...basically,over the past ten seasons, only one or two RB's have broken the 370+ carry curse, meaning they've fallen WAY short of that number the following season...saying that I'm of the belief that Jerious Norwood is an extremely good sleeper pick this season.

a solid , yet unspectacular season for MT

275/1237/10 ( 4.5 avg)

I'm taking the 370+ carry curse to heart, I don't see him even coming close to that number again this season...

 

[chook]

Interesting stat that I don't always see raised with Turner is that he only scored once outside of a dome last year, while failing to score only once under a roof.

He played ten indoor games (16 scores) and six outdoor games (one TD). He also scored in the playoff loss away to the Cards inside a dome, FWIW.

This year he plays indoors nine times and outdoors seven times.

This may not mean a thing at all, but thought I'd throw it into the thread anyway because it's kind of interesting.

Rush - 350/1600/16

Rec - 18/150/2

 

[Darker Knight]

The 377 carries last year are kind of worrisome but he has relative low mileage career wise since he was a backup to LT while in SD before last year.

I think he repeats most of what he did last year but a little bit less yards, the passing game will mature with Ryan but make no mistake this Falcons team is a run first attack. PPR leagues might want to take note that he only caught 6 passes all of last year.

My projection:

1500 Yards and 16 TD on 315 carries which puts him in the elite tier of RB in 2009.

Rotoworlds new fantasy mag has an interesting article about this...basically,over the past ten seasons, only one or two RB's have broken the 370+ carry curse, meaning they've fallen WAY short of that number the following season...saying that I'm of the belief that Jerious Norwood is an extremely good sleeper pick this season.

a solid , yet unspectacular season for MT

275/1237/10 ( 4.5 avg)

I'm taking the 370+ carry curse to heart, I don't see him even coming close to that number again this season...

Well I found 10 guys that did not bonk after a 370 season...so I don't see 370 as a magic number...I think we had LJ and Alexander bonk recently after 370+ carries so people jump on the bandwagonLT

James Wilder

E. Dickerson

E. Campbell

Ricky Williams

J. Bettis

Eddie George

E. Smith

Riggins

G.Riggs

C. Martin had seasons of 369/368/367

Edge went 369 next year 387

 

[perry147]

The 377 carries last year are kind of worrisome but he has relative low mileage career wise since he was a backup to LT while in SD before last year.

I think he repeats most of what he did last year but a little bit less yards, the passing game will mature with Ryan but make no mistake this Falcons team is a run first attack. PPR leagues might want to take note that he only caught 6 passes all of last year.

My projection:

1500 Yards and 16 TD on 315 carries which puts him in the elite tier of RB in 2009.

Rotoworlds new fantasy mag has an interesting article about this...basically,over the past ten seasons, only one or two RB's have broken the 370+ carry curse, meaning they've fallen WAY short of that number the following season...saying that I'm of the belief that Jerious Norwood is an extremely good sleeper pick this season.

a solid , yet unspectacular season for MT

275/1237/10 ( 4.5 avg)

I'm taking the 370+ carry curse to heart, I don't see him even coming close to that number again this season...

Well I found 10 guys that did not bonk after a 370 season...so I don't see 370 as a magic number...I think we had LJ and Alexander bonk recently after 370+ carries so people jump on the bandwagonLT

James Wilder

E. Dickerson

E. Campbell

Ricky Williams

J. Bettis

Eddie George

E. Smith

Riggins

G.Riggs

C. Martin had seasons of 369/368/367

Edge went 369 next year 387

I think the 370 rule is bunk. Age and injuries play a far more important role.

 

[cowboymouth]

What is the fascination with Turner in a PPR league? 120 and a TD is nice but it's only 18 points.

 

[Tau837]

A few things.

Using Clayton Gray's Ultimate Strength of Schedule for RBs from 6/16, we can see that Atlanta is projected to be right in the middle of the NFL in terms of its RB SOS. Noteworthy is that it shows Atlanta's schedule to be about 5% tougher than last season for RBs.

Meanwhile, Clayton's SOS for QBs article from 6/16 shows that Atlanta is projected to be tied for last in the league in terms of QB SOS (i.e., tied for the most difficult QB schedule). It shows Atlanta's schedule to be about 9% tougher than last season for QBs.

Looking at the schedules, it makes sense. Last year, outside the division the Falcons played the AFC West, NFC North, Philadelphia, and St. Louis... who had a cumulative record of 59-100-1. This year, they play the AFC East, NFC East, Chicago, and San Francisco, who last year had a cumulative record of 92-67-1. While I realize this is an imprecise way to judge teams for this year, since there are a lot of changes year to year, that is a huge gap, so I think the overall conclusion that the overall quality of their opponents seems to be higher this year is reasonable. Which means it is reasonable to think they will face tougher defenses overall.

How does this affect Turner specifically? Well, here is one set of splits of Turner's carries to consider from last season:

Ahead 212/990/11

Tied - 74/400/2

Behind - 90/309/4

Turner got roughly 18% of his rushing yards and 24% of his carries and TDs when behind. This isn't necessarily too surprising, as it makes sense that teams rush less when behind than when they aren't. But given the tougher schedule, will Atlanta be playing from behind more? It seems reasonable to think so. Here's the problem for Turner. For some RBs, that would simply mean a shift, with fewer carries but more receptions. But Turner is not involved in the passing game. As others have suggested, he'll probably top the 6 receptions he had last year, but overall this likely means less opportunity for Turner this year IMO.

Let's also look at the extraordinary number of red zone and goal line opportunities Turner got last season. First, here are the top 6 RBs in terms of carries in the red zone last year:

Turner 72

Slaton 63

Jones 62

Tomlinson 56

Peterson 53

Portis 48

How about goal line carries (using DD, so 5 yard line to goal):

White 21

Slaton 18

Jacobs 18

Turner 17

Johnson 17

McClain 17

Jones 16

(By the way, looking at this data, Slaton stood out as being extraordinarily bad at this, but that's for another discussion...)

What to make of this? Well, Turner had 17 TDs last year. 12 were inside the 5, and only 2 were from outside the red zone. Assuming the Falcons will be playing from behind more often... and knowing that Ryan should be better... and knowing the Falcons added Gonzalez... I'd say Turner will get slightly fewer goal line carries and substantially fewer red zone carries... perhaps 45 red zone carries, including 15 goal line carries. I'd say these factors are enough to drop him to the 10-12 range for TDs.

I don't put much stock in the 370 carry rule (or the n carry rule), but I do think it is unlikely he will maintain his 4.5 ypc against the tougher schedule and in following his 395 carry season last year... I could particularly see him starting to wear down a bit late in the season. It does appear that his SOS is pretty good in weeks 14-17, but Ryan's is the worst in the league (again referring to Clayton's projections), so that might not enable Turner to completely take advantage of his attractive schedule.

Projection: 320/1370/11 rushing and 15/105/0 receiving

 

[Darker Knight]

What is the fascination with Turner in a PPR league? 120 and a TD is nice but it's only 18 points.

Turner was good for 3rd best RB in all my PPR leagues in 2008..and it was just over 19 ppg...

 

[babydemon90]

it's curious how many people assume that the addition of Gonzo will hurt Turner's scoring chances.... Priest Holmes and LJ seemed to do ok.....

 

[puckalicious]

...How does this affect Turner specifically? Well, here is one set of splits of Turner's carries to consider from last season:Ahead 212/990/11Tied - 74/400/2Behind - 90/309/4Turner got roughly 18% of his rushing yards and 24% of his carries and TDs when behind. This isn't necessarily too surprising, as it makes sense that teams rush less when behind than when they aren't. But given the tougher schedule, will Atlanta be playing from behind more? It seems reasonable to think so. Here's the problem for Turner. For some RBs, that would simply mean a shift, with fewer carries but more receptions. But Turner is not involved in the passing game. As others have suggested, he'll probably top the 6 receptions he had last year, but overall this likely means less opportunity for Turner this year IMO....

I'm not sure what the above really means without knowing how long during the season the team was ahead/tied/behind. If he got 18% of his yards when behind, but they were only behind 10% of the time, isn't that a good thing?

 

[Tau837]

...How does this affect Turner specifically? Well, here is one set of splits of Turner's carries to consider from last season:Ahead 212/990/11Tied - 74/400/2Behind - 90/309/4Turner got roughly 18% of his rushing yards and 24% of his carries and TDs when behind. This isn't necessarily too surprising, as it makes sense that teams rush less when behind than when they aren't. But given the tougher schedule, will Atlanta be playing from behind more? It seems reasonable to think so. Here's the problem for Turner. For some RBs, that would simply mean a shift, with fewer carries but more receptions. But Turner is not involved in the passing game. As others have suggested, he'll probably top the 6 receptions he had last year, but overall this likely means less opportunity for Turner this year IMO....

I'm not sure what the above really means without knowing how long during the season the team was ahead/tied/behind. If he got 18% of his yards when behind, but they were only behind 10% of the time, isn't that a good thing?

I agree, I would like to have that information, but I don't know where to find it. Piecing it together:Game 1 - Ahead for 58:33, tied for 1:27Game 2 - Tied for 2:23, behind for 57:37Game 3 - Ahead for 48:20, tied for 11:40Game 4 - Tied for 7:47, behind for 52:13Game 5 - Ahead for 52:04, tied for 7:56Game 6 - Ahead for 54:02, tied for 5:47, behind for 0:11Game 7 - Ahead for 6:31, tied for 23:29, behind for 30:00Game 8 - Ahead for 53:56, tied for 6:04Game 9 - Ahead for 54:07, tied for 5:53Game 10 - Ahead for 17:41, tied for 5:34, behind for 36:45Game 11 - Ahead for 56:16, tied for 3:44Game 12 - Ahead for 43:39, tied for 9:04, behind for 7:17Game 13 - Ahead for 9:28, tied for 6:31, behind for 44:01Game 14 - Ahead for 51:06, tied for 19:50Game 15 - Ahead for 50:53, tied for 9:07Game 16 - Ahead for 28:29, tied for 11:37, behind for 19:54Totals (1st 8 games):Ahead for 273:26 (57%)Tied for 66:33 (13.9%)Behind for 140:01 (29.2%)Totals (2nd 8 games):Ahead for 311:39 (63.5%)Tied for 71:20 (14.5%)Behind for 107:57 (22%)Totals (16 games):Ahead for 585:03 (60.3%)Tied for 137:53 (14.2%)Behind for 247:58 (25.5%)So... first off, not sure how this would compare to similar situations. That is, what are the averages for % time ahead, tied, and behind for all teams? For all teams comparable to Atlanta (i.e., playoff teams, teams with 11-5 records, etc.)? I have no idea whether these averages are normal, or if Atlanta was ahead more than average.Regardless, Turner got 23.9% of his carries and 23.5% of his TDs when behind, which was 25.5% of the time... so his usage went down slightly when behind. Probably not too surprising, and not a significant difference. The biggest area of concern is that he only got 18.2% of his rushing yards when behind... his ypc went down significantly. This does not seem intuitive to me, since one would think it would be more likely that the team would be in passing situations, and thus more favorable running situations, when behind... so I'm not certain how much predictive value there is here.To put it in fantasy terms, he got 20.4% of his fantasy points when behind, which was 25.5% of the time. So one could expect that if Atlanta trails more this season, this shows that his production will fall. Again, this is not necessarily out of the ordinary, but I think there is a bit greater risk to Turner since he is so uninvolved in the passing game.

 

[Tau837]

And look at Turner's attempts as Ryan improved over the season - they went up, not down. He had 145 carries the first 8 games, and 232 the second 8 games. Ryan's improvement allowed the team to sustain drives when they were in 3rd and long situations, leading to more attempts for Turner.

Check out my previous post. I wonder how much Turner's increase in carries in the second half had to do with the difference in time ahead or behind. Those conditions were much more favorable for running in the second half.

 

[luckydawg]

Turner will have a great year with the addition of Gonzalez. He's going to even have a better year than last.

 

[baconisgood]

it's curious how many people assume that the addition of Gonzo will hurt Turner's scoring chances.... Priest Holmes and LJ seemed to do ok.....

First LJ's two best years were two of Gonzo's worst TD years- he scored 2 and 5 TDs- secondly KC was regarded as having one of the best, if not the best, O lines in the league at the time. They also had a very weak receiving corps during those years. Two of those things don't match Atlanta- one their oline isn't considered top level in the way KC's was and they have Roddy White who is >> Eddie Kennison.

 

[gonzobill5]

Interesting stat that I don't always see raised with Turner is that he only scored once outside of a dome last year, while failing to score only once under a roof.He played ten indoor games (16 scores) and six outdoor games (one TD). He also scored in the playoff loss away to the Cards inside a dome, FWIW.This year he plays indoors nine times and outdoors seven times. This may not mean a thing at all, but thought I'd throw it into the thread anyway because it's kind of interesting.Rush - 350/1600/16Rec - 18/150/2

I think this is the crux of the argument when it comes to Turner. When he's on turf, he plays at a completely different speed. In fact, IIRC the first time I heard of Michael Turner (or at least the first time I really paid attention to him) was @ Indy (RCA dome) when he ended their perfect season with an 80 some yard TD run to ice the game. Was this the game that earned him the nickname "the burner?"In addition to the TD stats, his ypc is 3.9 on grass and 4.8 on turf. Not convinced? @ Carolina he was 18/56/0, but when Carolina came to Atlanta he went 24/117/4. At TB he was 14/42/0 but when TB came to Atlanta he went 32/152/1 plus 2 catches for 30. It doesn't get much clearer than that. With Atlanta and NO in domes, he's guaranteed to play 9 games every year on turf. In those 9 games he's a no-brainer start. In the other 7, I wouldn't hesitate to show him the bench if I had a better option.Here are his 7 games on grassNE - week 3SF - week 5Dal - week 7 (not sure there isn't turf at the new stadium) Car - week 10NYG - week 11NYJ - unfortunately week 15, playoffsTB - fortunately week 17, offseason for most leagues Typically, you want to be able to plug your RB1 in every single week without thinking, but I think you could do very well drafting Turner as your #1 and having the guts to put him on the bench a few of these weeks. If I do end up with him, I might look for a guy that looks to have a pretty easy 3,4,5 since week 4 is Atlanta's bye week.Overall, I'm going to put Turner down for 325/1400/10. Maybe 15/100/0 in the receiving department. The dropoff in TDs comes from the fact that he won't get to face Detroit, KC, and Denver this year, which accounted for 7 TDs last year.

 

[Tau837]

Just wanted to point out that Turner played on grass in San Diego. For his career (regular season), he has averaged 4.7 ypc on grass and 5.1 ypc on turf.

 

[switz]

IIRC the first time I heard of Michael Turner (or at least the first time I really paid attention to him) was @ Indy (RCA dome) when he ended their perfect season with an 80 some yard TD run to ice the game. Was this the game that earned him the nickname "the burner?"

Nope, he had been called Michael "the Burner" Turner since high school. Dude should have been drafted much higher but went to a small school (even though he was in the Heismann running, far far down the list). Should have been a starter from day 1 in the NFL.

 

[puckalicious]

In addition to the TD stats, his ypc is 3.9 on grass and 4.8 on turf. Not convinced? @ Carolina he was 18/56/0, but when Carolina came to Atlanta he went 24/117/4. At TB he was 14/42/0 but when TB came to Atlanta he went 32/152/1 plus 2 catches for 30. It doesn't get much clearer than that.

I don't see it quite that clearly. Maybe the CAR and TB defense just wasn't as good down the stretch, and maybe ATL was struggling as a team out of the gate (new coach, QB, RB, etc). ATL played @CAR week 4, then home against them week 12 just a week after DET of all teams ran up 117 yards on them.ATL played @TB week 2, then home against them week 15. It's well known that the TB run defense struggled in the 2nd half of the season, giving up 301 yds to CAR just a week earlier (and only 41 yds to CAR in week 6).Maybe it's just me, but grass/turf argument doesn't really mean much when studied in context of the team quality they played against at the time.

 

[Monsters of the Midway]

I see this as three fold...1st JStew is in Car....2nd DWilly had 7 TD's of 25 or more yards...and 3rd Dwilly scored more than half of his TD's in 3 of his 16 games. For me these are the reasons I see DWilly will not repeat his 2008 numbers!

VERY interesting and leads me to think that it will be hard for DeAngelo to come close to 20 TDs again though maybe that's a foregone conclusion to everyone.

 

[Monsters of the Midway]

I don't know if the curse of 370 exists or not but I'm wondering if Turner can handle a 377 carry load again. His previous career high was 80. Then again his overall mileage is very low. Turner will be an interesting data point in the ongoing RB workload case study this year.

I think that he set the bar so high last year that he has nowhere to go but down. That's my feeling and I could be wrong-it was his first full season and all. Here's how I see it

- I see some fluke in that he scored 40% of his TDs in 2 games, which tells me that his TDs could be due for a downtick

- Matt Ryan is for real, they added a real weapon and will throw for more TDs

I'll drop him a bit to 300/1300/11, 10/80/0 to be safe. I don't know if that's #2 overall but it is still damn good. As a bonus, he's really fun to watch.

 

[massraider]

I am nervous about a tougher schedule, less goalline opportunities, and lack of receiving yards.

Regarding the number of carries, I seem to remember a lot of the same things being said about LJ, and it turned out those fears were justified.

This is from that Rotoword article:

Real quick:

1998: T. Davis---#1 ranked RB 1999: #77----ACL, MCL

1998: J. Anderson--#2 1999: #119----ACL

2000: Eddie George--#3 2001: #19--no major injury, YPC was 3.0

2000: Edgerrin James--#2 2001: 32---ACL

2002: Tomlinson--#3 2003: #2----Only recent player whose numbers improved

2002: Ricky Williams--#2 2003: 9----dropped off, but not that much.

2003: Jamal Lewis--#4 2004: #25--had a suspension, and YPC went down a full yard.

2003: Ricky Williams--#9 2004: smoked his way out of the league

2004: Curtis Martin--#4 2005: knee injury, career over.

2005: Alexander---#1 2006: #28--broken foot

2006: LJ--#2 2007: #40--broken foot

I see six injuries there, out of 11 guys. I have no idea if there's any correlation, but that, my friends, is a trend.

200 carries, 860 yards, 8 TD, 10 receptions, 95 yds, 1 TD

 

[gonzobill5]

In addition to the TD stats, his ypc is 3.9 on grass and 4.8 on turf. Not convinced? @ Carolina he was 18/56/0, but when Carolina came to Atlanta he went 24/117/4. At TB he was 14/42/0 but when TB came to Atlanta he went 32/152/1 plus 2 catches for 30. It doesn't get much clearer than that.

I don't see it quite that clearly. Maybe the CAR and TB defense just wasn't as good down the stretch, and maybe ATL was struggling as a team out of the gate (new coach, QB, RB, etc).

Outside of the Bucs and Panthers suffering some major injuries on defense, I'm not sure there is any other factor that would convince me that the discrepancy doesn't come from the type of field he's playing on.

 

[puckalicious]

I am nervous about a tougher schedule, less goalline opportunities, and lack of receiving yards.

Regarding the number of carries, I seem to remember a lot of the same things being said about LJ, and it turned out those fears were justified.

...

I see six injuries there, out of 11 guys. I have no idea if there's any correlation, but that, my friends, is a trend.

200 carries, 860 yards, 8 TD, 10 receptions, 95 yds, 1 TD

... until you compare it to all RB's as a whole. All RB's get injured, not just the "high carry" guys. Repeat after me, correlation does not equal causation. The difference in injury rate between "high carry" RBs and the rest of the RBs is statistically insignificant and gets proven as such every time somebody comes up with a "X carries rule".

 

[puckalicious]

In addition to the TD stats, his ypc is 3.9 on grass and 4.8 on turf. Not convinced? @ Carolina he was 18/56/0, but when Carolina came to Atlanta he went 24/117/4. At TB he was 14/42/0 but when TB came to Atlanta he went 32/152/1 plus 2 catches for 30. It doesn't get much clearer than that.

I don't see it quite that clearly. Maybe the CAR and TB defense just wasn't as good down the stretch, and maybe ATL was struggling as a team out of the gate (new coach, QB, RB, etc).

Outside of the Bucs and Panthers suffering some major injuries on defense, I'm not sure there is any other factor that would convince me that the discrepancy doesn't come from the type of field he's playing on.

You don't think home vs away has any bearing? This is probably much more of a factor than the type of field surface. Everybody has to run on the same field...

 

[massraider]

I am nervous about a tougher schedule, less goalline opportunities, and lack of receiving yards.

Regarding the number of carries, I seem to remember a lot of the same things being said about LJ, and it turned out those fears were justified.

...

I see six injuries there, out of 11 guys. I have no idea if there's any correlation, but that, my friends, is a trend.

200 carries, 860 yards, 8 TD, 10 receptions, 95 yds, 1 TD

... until you compare it to all RB's as a whole. All RB's get injured, not just the "high carry" guys. Repeat after me, correlation does not equal causation. The difference in injury rate between "high carry" RBs and the rest of the RBs is statistically insignificant and gets proven as such every time somebody comes up with a "X carries rule".

By whom? Are we supposed to just take you at your word on this?

 

[switz]

I am nervous about a tougher schedule, less goalline opportunities, and lack of receiving yards.Regarding the number of carries, I seem to remember a lot of the same things being said about LJ, and it turned out those fears were justified.This is from that Rotoword article:Real quick:1998: T. Davis---#1 ranked RB 1999: #77----ACL, MCL1998: J. Anderson--#2 1999: #119----ACL2000: Eddie George--#3 2001: #19--no major injury, YPC was 3.02000: Edgerrin James--#2 2001: 32---ACL2002: Tomlinson--#3 2003: #2----Only recent player whose numbers improved2002: Ricky Williams--#2 2003: 9----dropped off, but not that much.2003: Jamal Lewis--#4 2004: #25--had a suspension, and YPC went down a full yard.2003: Ricky Williams--#9 2004: smoked his way out of the league2004: Curtis Martin--#4 2005: knee injury, career over.2005: Alexander---#1 2006: #28--broken foot2006: LJ--#2 2007: #40--broken footI see six injuries there, out of 11 guys. I have no idea if there's any correlation, but that, my friends, is a trend.

Where were they ranked the year prior? i.e. for TD 1997, he was #1 as well, no? James in '99 was #2?You are looking at injury year - 1 to draw a conclusion, but if you look at injury year -1 and -2, you see that most of these RBs had back to back seasons of high workloads. One season of high workload != injury...

 

[massraider]

Where were they ranked the year prior? i.e. for TD 1997, he was #1 as well, no? James in '99 was #2?

You are looking at injury year - 1 to draw a conclusion, but if you look at injury year -1 and -2, you see that most of these RBs had back to back seasons of high workloads. One season of high workload != injury...

That's actually a good question. Taking a look:Jamal Anderson: two seasons prior--232 carries, 290 carries, (564 total up till that point)

Terrell Davis: two prior----345, 369, (951 total)-----------At least we know where the 370 number comes from. If they made it 368, they'd have to include Davis.

Eddie George: two prior---348, 320 (1340 total)

Edgerrin James: one prior---369 (369 total)

Ricky Williams: two prior---383, 313 (1189 total)

Jamal Lewis: two prior---309, 308 (617 total)

Curtis Martin: two prior---323, 261 (2927 total)-------This is also a bit misleading, this 370 number, as Martin had seasons with 368, 369, and 367.

Alexander: two prior---353, 326 (1347 total)

Larry Johnson: two prior---336, 120 (476 total)