Player Spotlight: Michael Turner (1 Viewer)

[puckalicious]

I am nervous about a tougher schedule, less goalline opportunities, and lack of receiving yards.

Regarding the number of carries, I seem to remember a lot of the same things being said about LJ, and it turned out those fears were justified.

...

I see six injuries there, out of 11 guys. I have no idea if there's any correlation, but that, my friends, is a trend.

200 carries, 860 yards, 8 TD, 10 receptions, 95 yds, 1 TD

... until you compare it to all RB's as a whole. All RB's get injured, not just the "high carry" guys. Repeat after me, correlation does not equal causation. The difference in injury rate between "high carry" RBs and the rest of the RBs is statistically insignificant and gets proven as such every time somebody comes up with a "X carries rule".

By whom? Are we supposed to just take you at your word on this?

No. Maybe this is the first time you've posted or read about the thoroughly debunked FO article. This ought to be common knowledge for those swimming in the SP.http://www.advancednflstats.com/2008/07/dr...yth-of-370.html

 

[switz]

I am nervous about a tougher schedule, less goalline opportunities, and lack of receiving yards.

Regarding the number of carries, I seem to remember a lot of the same things being said about LJ, and it turned out those fears were justified.

...

I see six injuries there, out of 11 guys. I have no idea if there's any correlation, but that, my friends, is a trend.

200 carries, 860 yards, 8 TD, 10 receptions, 95 yds, 1 TD

... until you compare it to all RB's as a whole. All RB's get injured, not just the "high carry" guys. Repeat after me, correlation does not equal causation. The difference in injury rate between "high carry" RBs and the rest of the RBs is statistically insignificant and gets proven as such every time somebody comes up with a "X carries rule".

By whom? Are we supposed to just take you at your word on this?

No. Maybe this is the first time you've posted or read about the thoroughly debunked FO article. This ought to be common knowledge for those swimming in the SP.http://www.advancednflstats.com/2008/07/dr...yth-of-370.html

The whole high carry for one season thing is ridiculous.

 

[H.K.]

Norwood may see a little increase in carries, maybe even get 120 or so, but it's not going to take away too many of Turner's opportunities.

Falcons | May only give Turner 270-280 carries this year Tue Jul 7, 05:02 PM

In an interview on our podcast "The Audible", D. Orlando Ledbetter - from the Atlanta Journal Constitution - said the Falcons know they can't run Michael Turner as much as they did last year. He anticipates his carries being cut to somewhere in the 270-280 range.

Our view: Ledbetter also commented how we could see more production out of Jerious Norwood if he can stay healthy. He commented the team must diversify and that's why they traded for Tony Gonzalez. The future Hall of Fame tight end will be a threat in the passing game and loosen up the linebackers to give more room for the running game.

That's about a reduction of 100 carries for Turner from last season.

 

[Darker Knight]

Norwood may see a little increase in carries, maybe even get 120 or so, but it's not going to take away too many of Turner's opportunities.

Falcons | May only give Turner 270-280 carries this year Tue Jul 7, 05:02 PM

In an interview on our podcast "The Audible", D. Orlando Ledbetter - from the Atlanta Journal Constitution - said the Falcons know they can't run Michael Turner as much as they did last year. He anticipates his carries being cut to somewhere in the 270-280 range.

Our view: Ledbetter also commented how we could see more production out of Jerious Norwood if he can stay healthy. He commented the team must diversify and that's why they traded for Tony Gonzalez. The future Hall of Fame tight end will be a threat in the passing game and loosen up the linebackers to give more room for the running game.

That's about a reduction of 100 carries for Turner from last season.

What is Ledbetter official title with the Falcons? This would mean a lot more if it came from the coaching staff

 

[puckalicious]

Norwood may see a little increase in carries, maybe even get 120 or so, but it's not going to take away too many of Turner's opportunities.

Falcons | May only give Turner 270-280 carries this year Tue Jul 7, 05:02 PM

In an interview on our podcast "The Audible", D. Orlando Ledbetter - from the Atlanta Journal Constitution - said the Falcons know they can't run Michael Turner as much as they did last year. He anticipates his carries being cut to somewhere in the 270-280 range.

Our view: Ledbetter also commented how we could see more production out of Jerious Norwood if he can stay healthy. He commented the team must diversify and that's why they traded for Tony Gonzalez. The future Hall of Fame tight end will be a threat in the passing game and loosen up the linebackers to give more room for the running game.

That's about a reduction of 100 carries for Turner from last season.

What is Ledbetter official title with the Falcons? This would mean a lot more if it came from the coaching staff

The only way I see Turner getting 100 less carries is if ATL falls apart and is getting blown out in games, combined with an injury. Was Ledbetter the same guy that predicts about 25% less targets to White? He thinks the addition of Gonzo is going to change things quite dramatically.

 

[5-ish Finkle]

Was Ledbetter the same guy that predicts about 25% less targets to White? He thinks the addition of Gonzo is going to change things quite dramatically.

Actually, he said that last year White was targeted 33% of the time in the passing game and this year he thought it would drop to 25% with Gonzalez on board.The 100 less carry thing sounds like something he pulled out of his @#$% though. I can see the Falcons saying "We can't expect to have Turner run the ball 400 times every season for very long and have him healthy." That's a whole lot different than saying "We want to cut off almost quarter of his touches."Even if they DID say that, talk's cheap. They were successful a season ago hammering teams with Turner after they got a lead. I expect more passing this year, but they aren't going to be turning into the Patriots any time soon.

 

[switz]

Norwood may see a little increase in carries, maybe even get 120 or so, but it's not going to take away too many of Turner's opportunities.

Falcons | May only give Turner 270-280 carries this year Tue Jul 7, 05:02 PM

In an interview on our podcast "The Audible", D. Orlando Ledbetter - from the Atlanta Journal Constitution - said the Falcons know they can't run Michael Turner as much as they did last year. He anticipates his carries being cut to somewhere in the 270-280 range.

Our view: Ledbetter also commented how we could see more production out of Jerious Norwood if he can stay healthy. He commented the team must diversify and that's why they traded for Tony Gonzalez. The future Hall of Fame tight end will be a threat in the passing game and loosen up the linebackers to give more room for the running game.

That's about a reduction of 100 carries for Turner from last season.

The bolded part is all you need to know... he's a speculating beat writer who doesn't know anything, and FBG staff who knows even less.I can see Turner's carries dropping, even as much as 320. I still don't see how that has to do with Norwood taking away Turner's opportunities. I expect a lot of those will carries will disappear in short yardage situations where they pass to Gonzales.

 

[puckalicious]

Norwood may see a little increase in carries, maybe even get 120 or so, but it's not going to take away too many of Turner's opportunities.

Falcons | May only give Turner 270-280 carries this year Tue Jul 7, 05:02 PM

In an interview on our podcast "The Audible", D. Orlando Ledbetter - from the Atlanta Journal Constitution - said the Falcons know they can't run Michael Turner as much as they did last year. He anticipates his carries being cut to somewhere in the 270-280 range.

Our view: Ledbetter also commented how we could see more production out of Jerious Norwood if he can stay healthy. He commented the team must diversify and that's why they traded for Tony Gonzalez. The future Hall of Fame tight end will be a threat in the passing game and loosen up the linebackers to give more room for the running game.

That's about a reduction of 100 carries for Turner from last season.

The bolded part is all you need to know... he's a speculating beat writer who doesn't know anything, and FBG staff who knows even less.I can see Turner's carries dropping, even as much as 320. I still don't see how that has to do with Norwood taking away Turner's opportunities. I expect a lot of those will carries will disappear in short yardage situations where they pass to Gonzales.

A quick check with Data Dominator shows Turner in 2008 with 17 carries of 3rd or 4th down and 1 or 2 yds to go. Although if you include 1st & 2nd down, it jumps up to 59 carries. Interesting. I agree though, 320 carries sounds right for his floor.

 

[switz]

I can see Turner's carries dropping, even as much as 320. I still don't see how that has to do with Norwood taking away Turner's opportunities. I expect a lot of those will carries will disappear in short yardage situations where they pass to Gonzales.

A quick check with Data Dominator shows Turner in 2008 with 17 carries of 3rd or 4th down and 1 or 2 yds to go. Although if you include 1st & 2nd down, it jumps up to 59 carries. Interesting. I agree though, 320 carries sounds right for his floor.

Agreed. That is in interesting stat re: 3rd and 4th down short yardage carries. I do think TG was brought in specifically to be the escape valve, shot yardage passing game guy. I believe they know they need to ease a little on Turner if they want to keep him going. I still don't see the 100 carry drop off others are projecting, I agree 320 is a floor for him, but I don't see him being near 370 again.

 

[Eph]

So, I see Mularkey made some comments about Turner getting fewer carries.

But, it seems like he's been completely pulled from DD in the latest projections. In fact, my cheatsheet now shows no one at his previous draft spot!

What's with that?

Eph

 

[H.K.]

So, I see Mularkey made some comments about Turner getting fewer carries.But, it seems like he's been completely pulled from DD in the latest projections. In fact, my cheatsheet now shows no one at his previous draft spot!What's with that?Eph

The quote Eph referenced:

Mularkey knows he can't use Turner as much as he did last season, but that's where Norwood comes into play. Turner had 376 carries for 1,699 yards, while Norwood had only 95 rushing attempts, even though he averaged 5.1 yards per carry. "You can't run 370 times a season," Mularkey said. "If Michael does that, he's going to wear out over time."

 

[Eph]

HK - thanks for posting the quote.

But, I'm still wondering why he is no longer showing up in my DD player pool!

He was at #4 before, now my player jumps from 3 to 5! Any ideas?

 

[H.K.]

But, I'm still wondering why he is no longer showing up in my DD player pool!He was at #4 before, now my player jumps from 3 to 5! Any ideas?

My only thought is you accidentally assigned him as a keeper to another team so he doesn't show up in the pool? Probably you'll get a quicker response by asking your question in the application forum.

 

[Eph]

Thanks. Not sure what happened, but the solution was to go to "Draft Status" and "Undo Last Move".

 

[Bills_Fan11]

A little surprised the home/away debate is still going on. They went to Tampa week 2 which was Ryan's 1st career road start and 2nd overall. Of course they were going to go balls out to stop the run. I bet a fortune on Tampa -7 that game and was surprised it wasn't much uglier than it was.

 

[Coach Pantusso]

Turner was this team's workhorse in 2008 and should continue in the same role in 2009. That being said, it would be surprising to see his stock higher at the same time next year as it is now. It is unlikely that Atlanta will continue to have a 39 to 61 ratio in the red zone with Gonzo in the fold. This will likely take a few TD opportunities away from Turner. Surprisingly, however, Turner only scored on 2 runs greater than 20 yards last season, so it is possible that he could close the gap from last year's numbers with a couple more big plays (that we all know he is capable of). At the end of the day, it is most likely to see his numbers come down a bit from decreased opportunities to run in the RZ and fewer running attempts overall.

353-1623-11, 12-96-0

(66% of ATL carries--ATL running 54% of 990 offensive plays--avg 4.6 per carry)

* edit numbers, 291-1341-11, 12-96-0 (spreadsheet error)

 

[Jason Wood]

A few things.

I wanted to commend Just Win Baby for an awesome analysis on Page 1, nice work.

I also wanted to comment on the quoted comments from Ledbetter, the Falcons beat writer. If you listened to the interview, he clearly knows the team and their personnel. But you also clearly would've understood that Howard throwing out any specific predictions were VERY MUCH off the cuff and, shall we say, unscientific. In addition to saying Turner would carry the ball 270-280 times, he also suggested fantasy owners 'use a 3rd or 4th round pick on Laurent Robinson.'

It's all about context.

 

[Tau837]

A few things.I wanted to commend Just Win Baby for an awesome analysis on Page 1, nice work.I also wanted to comment on the quoted comments from Ledbetter, the Falcons beat writer. If you listened to the interview, he clearly knows the team and their personnel. But you also clearly would've understood that Howard throwing out any specific predictions were VERY MUCH off the cuff and, shall we say, unscientific. In addition to saying Turner would carry the ball 270-280 times, he also suggested fantasy owners 'use a 3rd or 4th round pick on Laurent Robinson.' It's all about context.

Thanks, Jason.

 

[Scorehoard]

Good chatter regarding the Burner! I think throughout these posts its pretty visible that many feel his production will fall in relation to touches. I loved the comment about Priest and LJ not having any issues with producing along side Gonzo. In my opinion, between the addition of Gonzo and Turner"s carries I feel that the offense will simply score more points! With Gonzo it shouldn't mean your back scores less or produces less. Between age, schedule and oline not much changes....

340- 1411 15

 

[NeverEnough]

bump for new thoughts

 

[Garts]

bump for new thoughts

1 week

 

[switz]

bump for new thoughts

Did I miss something? Was Turner injured and is now out for the season?

 

[C-Bound]

A bit frustrating. He's been my keeper for 2 years and I have obviously been thrilled with his production. However, there's always a risk with this guy as seen in week one. If only he could get even a few receiving targets a game...

 

[Garts]

A bit frustrating. He's been my keeper for 2 years and I have obviously been thrilled with his production. However, there's always a risk with this guy as seen in week one. If only he could get even a few receiving targets a game...

so he has a bad week like every other RB...but he can also WIN you a week on his own like very few RB's...and more then once a year too.

 

[The Redbeard]

After a slow start, Turner is doing all right. Top 4 in carries per game. 6 TDs Now Norwood out for the foreseeable future. Does anyone know if there is a back on their depth chart that will see an increase in workload (other than Snelling who should see an uptick)?

 

[Knobs]

Norwood wasn't exactly stealing carries from Turner so I have no idea why this should be a bump.

 

[Carter_Can_Fly]

Norwood wasn't exactly stealing carries from Turner so I have no idea why this should be a bump.

Turner did have two catches last week which is a positive sign althoug Snelling will assume most of the third down passing work.I don't understand though why they never ever get Turner involved in screens or the odd catch in space. He did not look bad on the check down play and the other short out route he ran was ok as well.

 

[The Redbeard]

Norwood wasn't exactly stealing carries from Turner so I have no idea why this should be a bump.

You would rather we start a new thread for Noorwoods injury? Something like "Norwood hurt - Shark move to pick up...." It seemed that the player spotlight page would be a perfectly logical place to discuss any implications from his backup getting hurt without clogging the board with a new thread.. Perhaps some of us like to proactively think about things before they happen? For instance - even hobbled, Norwood was averaging about 8 touches a game. If there is a healthy compliment to Turner who could get around 10 touches regularly and benefit as the replacement if Turner got hurt - might that player not have value? And might that not be worthy of a bump?

 

[Knobs]

Norwood wasn't exactly stealing carries from Turner so I have no idea why this should be a bump.

You would rather we start a new thread for Noorwoods injury? Something like "Norwood hurt - Shark move to pick up...." It seemed that the player spotlight page would be a perfectly logical place to discuss any implications from his backup getting hurt without clogging the board with a new thread.. Perhaps some of us like to proactively think about things before they happen? For instance - even hobbled, Norwood was averaging about 8 touches a game. If there is a healthy compliment to Turner who could get around 10 touches regularly and benefit as the replacement if Turner got hurt - might that player not have value? And might that not be worthy of a bump?

I didn't mean this thread shouldn't be bumped. I usually enjoy player spotlights getting bumped after time.I meant I don't know why this should be a bump to Turner's value. I see it as a minor impact.

 

[MCguidance]

Norwood wasn't exactly stealing carries from Turner so I have no idea why this should be a bump.

Turner did have two catches last week which is a positive sign althoug Snelling will assume most of the third down passing work.I don't understand though why they never ever get Turner involved in screens or the odd catch in space. He did not look bad on the check down play and the other short out route he ran was ok as well.

I actually thought that Turner looked decent catching the passes as well. But it seems that you are right, Snelling will see those receptions. If he didn't "steal" those receptions, we would be talking about Turner as a PPR stud. But we know that is far from likely. Can't complain with 20+ carries a game and nearly all goal line work.Just wondering if Turner will do well this weekend - most are predicting no, yet at the same time they predicted Moreno would shred them a few weeks ago. Maybe I am overstating it, lol.

 

[editor47]

Norwood wasn't exactly stealing carries from Turner so I have no idea why this should be a bump.

Turner did have two catches last week which is a positive sign althoug Snelling will assume most of the third down passing work.I don't understand though why they never ever get Turner involved in screens or the odd catch in space. He did not look bad on the check down play and the other short out route he ran was ok as well.

I actually thought that Turner looked decent catching the passes as well. But it seems that you are right, Snelling will see those receptions. If he didn't "steal" those receptions, we would be talking about Turner as a PPR stud. But we know that is far from likely. Can't complain with 20+ carries a game and nearly all goal line work.Just wondering if Turner will do well this weekend - most are predicting no, yet at the same time they predicted Moreno would shred them a few weeks ago. Maybe I am overstating it, lol.

if TDs are 6 points in your league i would never sit turner. they're only 3 in my league so its a tougher call. it will be interesting to see if he turns things up a notch at any point again. the comments during the bye week hinted at improvement, but week 6 was nothing spectacular. one reason he doesn't get receptions is because if they added 4-5 rec. per game to him, he'd be up near 30 touches ... and he'd probably get killed ... just my .02.

 

[george]

,,

 

[Tau837]

A few things.Using Clayton Gray's Ultimate Strength of Schedule for RBs from 6/16, we can see that Atlanta is projected to be right in the middle of the NFL in terms of its RB SOS. Noteworthy is that it shows Atlanta's schedule to be about 5% tougher than last season for RBs.Meanwhile, Clayton's SOS for QBs article from 6/16 shows that Atlanta is projected to be tied for last in the league in terms of QB SOS (i.e., tied for the most difficult QB schedule). It shows Atlanta's schedule to be about 9% tougher than last season for QBs.Looking at the schedules, it makes sense. Last year, outside the division the Falcons played the AFC West, NFC North, Philadelphia, and St. Louis... who had a cumulative record of 59-100-1. This year, they play the AFC East, NFC East, Chicago, and San Francisco, who last year had a cumulative record of 92-67-1. While I realize this is an imprecise way to judge teams for this year, since there are a lot of changes year to year, that is a huge gap, so I think the overall conclusion that the overall quality of their opponents seems to be higher this year is reasonable. Which means it is reasonable to think they will face tougher defenses overall.How does this affect Turner specifically? Well, here is one set of splits of Turner's carries to consider from last season:Ahead 212/990/11Tied - 74/400/2Behind - 90/309/4Turner got roughly 18% of his rushing yards and 24% of his carries and TDs when behind. This isn't necessarily too surprising, as it makes sense that teams rush less when behind than when they aren't. But given the tougher schedule, will Atlanta be playing from behind more? It seems reasonable to think so. Here's the problem for Turner. For some RBs, that would simply mean a shift, with fewer carries but more receptions. But Turner is not involved in the passing game. As others have suggested, he'll probably top the 6 receptions he had last year, but overall this likely means less opportunity for Turner this year IMO.Let's also look at the extraordinary number of red zone and goal line opportunities Turner got last season. First, here are the top 6 RBs in terms of carries in the red zone last year:Turner 72Slaton 63Jones 62Tomlinson 56Peterson 53Portis 48How about goal line carries (using DD, so 5 yard line to goal):White 21Slaton 18Jacobs 18Turner 17Johnson 17McClain 17Jones 16(By the way, looking at this data, Slaton stood out as being extraordinarily bad at this, but that's for another discussion...)What to make of this? Well, Turner had 17 TDs last year. 12 were inside the 5, and only 2 were from outside the red zone. Assuming the Falcons will be playing from behind more often... and knowing that Ryan should be better... and knowing the Falcons added Gonzalez... I'd say Turner will get slightly fewer goal line carries and substantially fewer red zone carries... perhaps 45 red zone carries, including 15 goal line carries. I'd say these factors are enough to drop him to the 10-12 range for TDs.I don't put much stock in the 370 carry rule (or the n carry rule), but I do think it is unlikely he will maintain his 4.5 ypc against the tougher schedule and in following his 395 carry season last year... I could particularly see him starting to wear down a bit late in the season. It does appear that his SOS is pretty good in weeks 14-17, but Ryan's is the worst in the league (again referring to Clayton's projections), so that might not enable Turner to completely take advantage of his attractive schedule.Projection: 320/1370/11 rushing and 15/105/0 receiving

Turner's injury makes it pretty hard to judge his preseason projections. But ignoring his 1 carry game, he was on pace for 1382/16 rushing and about 50 yards receiving. So the yardage projection wasn't too bad, though he was doing it with a better ypc average (and fewer carries) than I expected, and he was scoring TDs at almost the same pace as the previous season. Definitely underestimated him.

 

[editor47]

nice to see someone grab this thread and move it back up.

figured it would be one of the guys who thought he would struggle this year to pat themselves on the back.

 

[C-Bound]

Watch out next year.

 

[H.K.]

226 carries832 yards5 TD2 recepts11 yards0 TD

Actual:871 Rushing Yards35 Receiving Yards10 TD'sLittle low on the TD side, but not a bad effort.

 

[Ramos]

226 carries832 yards5 TD2 recepts11 yards0 TD

Actual:871 Rushing Yards35 Receiving Yards10 TD'sLittle low on the TD side, but not a bad effort.

178 carries 4.9 ypc.Was your prediction failure or injury?

 

[H.K.]

226 carries832 yards5 TD2 recepts11 yards0 TD

Actual:871 Rushing Yards35 Receiving Yards10 TD'sLittle low on the TD side, but not a bad effort.

178 carries 4.9 ypc.Was your prediction failure or injury?

Posted this on page 1:

Consider this last statistic, courtesy of The Sporting News: between the years 2000-07, running backs who recorded 345 carries or more either suffered a serious injury or saw a dramatic decrease in production—or both in some instances–18 times or roughly 82 percent.

 

[ManningissGod]

Turner had 10 tds halfway through the season... what makes you all believe he wont be a TD STUD this year

 

[Carter_Can_Fly]

226 carries832 yards5 TD2 recepts11 yards0 TD

Actual:871 Rushing Yards35 Receiving Yards10 TD'sLittle low on the TD side, but not a bad effort.

178 carries 4.9 ypc.Was your prediction failure or injury?

Posted this on page 1:

Consider this last statistic, courtesy of The Sporting News: between the years 2000-07, running backs who recorded 345 carries or more either suffered a serious injury or saw a dramatic decrease in production—or both in some instances–18 times or roughly 82 percent.

This last part about decrease in production and injury is bogus.

 

[bweiser]

Consider this last statistic, courtesy of The Sporting News: between the years 2000-07, running backs who recorded 345 carries or more either suffered a serious injury or saw a dramatic decrease in production—or both in some instances–18 times or roughly 82 percent.

i question the severity of the turner injury, too. if he'd have been smart or the team had been, and he hadn't come back for the 1 carry the first time, i think he would have been OK for the final 4 or 5 games. same thing with the jets game. if he sits out 1 more game, he's fine for the last 2 and then we're talking 14 TDs ... i give him credit for trying to tough it out when his team needed him.