Player Spotlight: Peyton Manning (1 Viewer)

[Jason Wood]

2008 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. Last year, we published more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters. This year will be no different.

Each week we will post a list of players to be discussed. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discussion expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Peyton Manning, QB, Indianapolis Colts

Player Page Link: Peyton Manning Player Page

Each article will include:

Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads
FBG Projections
Consensus Member ProjectionsThe Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

Focus commentary on the player in question, and your expectations for said player
Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
To be included in the final synopsis and consensus outlook, you MUST provide projections for the playerProjections should include (at a minimum):

For QBs: Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDsNow let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

 

[by_the_sea_wannabe]

355-540 4306 yds 30 tds 11 picks

27 ru. 41 yds 2 TD

Another typical year for the best qb of this generation.

 

[The Man with the Plan]

He had over 4000 yards and 34 touchdowns last season while playing behind a makeshift offensive line and without one of the greatest wide receivers to play the game. Oh yeah and Tom Brady broke his touchdown record. I don't think he's going to take that lying down.

4500 yards 40 TD 20 INT

Tom Brady is the overrated fantasy QB now. Because of that you can draft Peyton Manning at a good price this season. Yay.

 

[by_the_sea_wannabe]

He had over 4000 yards and 34 touchdowns last season while playing behind a makeshift offensive line and without one of the greatest wide receivers to play the game. Oh yeah and Tom Brady broke his touchdown record. I don't think he's going to take that lying down.4500 yards 40 TD 20 INTTom Brady is the overrated fantasy QB now. Because of that you can draft Peyton Manning at a good price this season. Yay.

He had 31 TD passes last year.

 

[The Man with the Plan]

He had over 4000 yards and 34 touchdowns last season while playing behind a makeshift offensive line and without one of the greatest wide receivers to play the game. Oh yeah and Tom Brady broke his touchdown record. I don't think he's going to take that lying down.4500 yards 40 TD 20 INTTom Brady is the overrated fantasy QB now. Because of that you can draft Peyton Manning at a good price this season. Yay.

He had 31 TD passes last year.

31 Passing touchdowns + 3 rushing touchdowns= 34 total touchdowns.They all count the same in my leagues bro.

 

[Jason Wood]

Peyton has been so consistent for so long, he's usually one of the least trafficked and discussed QBs in our Player Spotlight series. And it's hard to argue with the comfort one gets from drafting the guy. If you had said to someone that Marvin Harrison would be largely rendered ineffective a year after Manning loses his long-time stud left tackle; most would've thought he would see SOME drop off. Yet when push comes to show, the year end numbers are always there.

I think the other thing is about Manning is he generally is only a target of a small subset of league owners. What I mean to say is, because we all know Manning is going to go in the first round or two of most drafts; a lot of people simply remove him from their draft boards mentally. If you generally don't want to take a QB in the first few rounds, you just accept that someone else is going to take Manning and just hope that he doesn't light you up for 300 yards and 4 TDs in your head to head contest.

Either way, the guy deserves as many platitudes as we can heap upon him. It seems the Colts never rebuild offensively, they just re-load. Dallas Clark; always a talent, really became a consistent force in the red zone over the last two seasons. Anthony Gonzalez looks like a legitimate player. And what more can be said about Joseph Addai?

As long as he stays healthy, you know you're pretty much getting 4,000 yards and 30+ TDs. In the slim chance he falls into the 3rd round of 10-team redrafts, I would argue he should be seriously considered.

 

[css2373]

I expect Manning to try to match Brady's run from last year and while I don't think he will match it, he will do very well.

4400yds 38 TDs 15 ints

30 rush yds 1 TD

 

[Winning IS Everything]

Manning is simply the best QB playing right now. He has a great supporting cast (with or without Harrison), and he is the model of consistency. I see more of the same with Peyton this year.

4400 yards, 34 Td's 13 pics and 1 rush TD.

 

[twitch]

I think Manning will be on a mission this year. His line kept breaking down last year. Addai was dinged for atleast half the season. And obviously Harrison was a non-factor. So, the Oline should be improved. Addai and Rhodes will be back running in tandem, balancing out that O nicely. And whether or not Harrison is able to return, Manning has a full season of working with Gonzalez under his belt. Plus, the young kid the drafted in '07 who's name escapes me should be returning from injury and able to contribute. Breaking in a beautiful new stadium certainly wont hurt. Imo, this will be Manning's 2nd best statistical season of his career.

4500yds 40TDs 14INTs 12yds ru. 1ru.TD

Crazy to say because he's usually drafted so early, but if he goes behind Brady, Manning is going to be an incredible value this year. jmho.

 

[radballs]

4,400 passing yards, 35 TDs, 12 INTs, 24 rushes for 40 yards and 2 TDs

 

[djcolts]

I think Manning will be on a mission this year. His line kept breaking down last year. Addai was dinged for atleast half the season. And obviously Harrison was a non-factor. So, the Oline should be improved. Addai and Rhodes will be back running in tandem, balancing out that O nicely. And whether or not Harrison is able to return, Manning has a full season of working with Gonzalez under his belt. Plus, the young kid the drafted in '07 who's name escapes me should be returning from injury and able to contribute. Breaking in a beautiful new stadium certainly wont hurt. Imo, this will be Manning's 2nd best statistical season of his career.

4500yds 40TDs 14INTs 12yds ru. 1ru.TD

Crazy to say because he's usually drafted so early, but if he goes behind Brady, Manning is going to be an incredible value this year. jmho.

The kid you're talking about is Roy Hall - and I don't know how good he'll be this season. The other guy to watch out for is rookie TE Jacob Tamme - who basically is a WR taking a TE roster spot.I really don't see 40 TDs this season, though. I expect the running game to be a little better from the 1 yard line than before because of the new faces on the OL (and Ugoh having a year under his belt) - and I think Mike Hart could be a factor (either as a FB or as a goal-line back) to the improved goal-line attack (Polian called Mike Hart "James Mungro" - that was Mungro's role on the team when he was playing).

 

[twitch]

I think Manning will be on a mission this year. His line kept breaking down last year. Addai was dinged for atleast half the season. And obviously Harrison was a non-factor. So, the Oline should be improved. Addai and Rhodes will be back running in tandem, balancing out that O nicely. And whether or not Harrison is able to return, Manning has a full season of working with Gonzalez under his belt. Plus, the young kid the drafted in '07 who's name escapes me should be returning from injury and able to contribute. Breaking in a beautiful new stadium certainly wont hurt. Imo, this will be Manning's 2nd best statistical season of his career.

4500yds 40TDs 14INTs 12yds ru. 1ru.TD

Crazy to say because he's usually drafted so early, but if he goes behind Brady, Manning is going to be an incredible value this year. jmho.

The kid you're talking about is Roy Hall - and I don't know how good he'll be this season. The other guy to watch out for is rookie TE Jacob Tamme - who basically is a WR taking a TE roster spot.I really don't see 40 TDs this season, though. I expect the running game to be a little better from the 1 yard line than before because of the new faces on the OL (and Ugoh having a year under his belt) - and I think Mike Hart could be a factor (either as a FB or as a goal-line back) to the improved goal-line attack (Polian called Mike Hart "James Mungro" - that was Mungro's role on the team when he was playing).

Roy Hall- thank you for that. The weapons in this O really could be a nightmare if Harrison is able to come back and play even close to his old form. And 40 scores I know sounds like alot, but if you think about it, Manning is going to end up the most prolific #s machine in the history of the NFL. And for a pocket QB, he's still smack in his prime. I expect he'll duplicate Marino's feat, and record a 2nd 40something TD season before he's done. I think its this year. New stadium. Little bro' wins SB. One and done, again. Nemesis Brady posts ridiculous #s. Return of Harrison and Rhodes, as well as Hall and the rookie that you spoke highly of. He's throwing for 40 TDs next year. Mark it down.

 

[Chase Stuart]

I think Manning will be on a mission this year. His line kept breaking down last year. Addai was dinged for atleast half the season. And obviously Harrison was a non-factor. So, the Oline should be improved. Addai and Rhodes will be back running in tandem, balancing out that O nicely. And whether or not Harrison is able to return, Manning has a full season of working with Gonzalez under his belt. Plus, the young kid the drafted in '07 who's name escapes me should be returning from injury and able to contribute. Breaking in a beautiful new stadium certainly wont hurt. Imo, this will be Manning's 2nd best statistical season of his career.

4500yds 40TDs 14INTs 12yds ru. 1ru.TD

Crazy to say because he's usually drafted so early, but if he goes behind Brady, Manning is going to be an incredible value this year. jmho.

The kid you're talking about is Roy Hall - and I don't know how good he'll be this season. The other guy to watch out for is rookie TE Jacob Tamme - who basically is a WR taking a TE roster spot.I really don't see 40 TDs this season, though. I expect the running game to be a little better from the 1 yard line than before because of the new faces on the OL (and Ugoh having a year under his belt) - and I think Mike Hart could be a factor (either as a FB or as a goal-line back) to the improved goal-line attack (Polian called Mike Hart "James Mungro" - that was Mungro's role on the team when he was playing).

Roy Hall- thank you for that. The weapons in this O really could be a nightmare if Harrison is able to come back and play even close to his old form. And 40 scores I know sounds like alot, but if you think about it, Manning is going to end up the most prolific #s machine in the history of the NFL. And for a pocket QB, he's still smack in his prime. I expect he'll duplicate Marino's feat, and record a 2nd 40something TD season before he's done. I think its this year. New stadium. Little bro' wins SB. One and done, again. Nemesis Brady posts ridiculous #s. Return of Harrison and Rhodes, as well as Hall and the rookie that you spoke highly of. He's throwing for 40 TDs next year. Mark it down.

I don't know what evidence there is to suggest QBs in new stadiums outperform expectations.This study shows that teams in Year 2 of a new stadium tend to have the best HFA. While not exactly on point, it seems to indicate that next year might be the better year for Manning.

 

[TheFanatic]

I expect Manning to try to match Brady's run from last year and while I don't think he will match it, he will do very well.4400yds 38 TDs 15 ints30 rush yds 1 TD

This is my thinking too. The guy set the TD record and won a SB. Nothing more to prove, right? Brady was always the better passer because he had the rings but Peyton had the stats. Well, Peyton got his ring but then Brady added the TD stat to his 3 rings (as well as a 4th appearance in the SB), so now I think Peyton will attempt to pad his stats some more. I'm not sure he has the receiving personnel to do it - which all hinges on Harrison's health - so I think he comes up short on the TD record but he will have close to 40 TD's.

 

[Finless]

I have personally issued a sell statement on Peyton in keeper and Dynasty formats. Expect more insider information in the coming days.

 

[twitch]

I think Manning will be on a mission this year. His line kept breaking down last year. Addai was dinged for atleast half the season. And obviously Harrison was a non-factor. So, the Oline should be improved. Addai and Rhodes will be back running in tandem, balancing out that O nicely. And whether or not Harrison is able to return, Manning has a full season of working with Gonzalez under his belt. Plus, the young kid the drafted in '07 who's name escapes me should be returning from injury and able to contribute. Breaking in a beautiful new stadium certainly wont hurt. Imo, this will be Manning's 2nd best statistical season of his career.

4500yds 40TDs 14INTs 12yds ru. 1ru.TD

Crazy to say because he's usually drafted so early, but if he goes behind Brady, Manning is going to be an incredible value this year. jmho.

The kid you're talking about is Roy Hall - and I don't know how good he'll be this season. The other guy to watch out for is rookie TE Jacob Tamme - who basically is a WR taking a TE roster spot.I really don't see 40 TDs this season, though. I expect the running game to be a little better from the 1 yard line than before because of the new faces on the OL (and Ugoh having a year under his belt) - and I think Mike Hart could be a factor (either as a FB or as a goal-line back) to the improved goal-line attack (Polian called Mike Hart "James Mungro" - that was Mungro's role on the team when he was playing).

Roy Hall- thank you for that. The weapons in this O really could be a nightmare if Harrison is able to come back and play even close to his old form. And 40 scores I know sounds like alot, but if you think about it, Manning is going to end up the most prolific #s machine in the history of the NFL. And for a pocket QB, he's still smack in his prime. I expect he'll duplicate Marino's feat, and record a 2nd 40something TD season before he's done. I think its this year. New stadium. Little bro' wins SB. One and done, again. Nemesis Brady posts ridiculous #s. Return of Harrison and Rhodes, as well as Hall and the rookie that you spoke highly of. He's throwing for 40 TDs next year. Mark it down.

I don't know what evidence there is to suggest QBs in new stadiums outperform expectations.This study shows that teams in Year 2 of a new stadium tend to have the best HFA. While not exactly on point, it seems to indicate that next year might be the better year for Manning.

Interesting stuff there, Chase. I didnt consider the notion that the Colts may actually have a slightly diminished home field advantage due to their own unfamiliarity with the new stadium. It happened to New England in '02. They took a step back that year and missed the playoffs, and went on another run in '03, their 2nd year in Gillette. So that particular example supports the data. But also in '02, year 1 in Gillette, Tom Brady led the NFL in TD passes. So, it works both ways. Manning's obviously a special player. The Colts are a special team. This may be Dungy's last year. Peyton's hangin' it all out there. Point is, after about the first 3 of 4 players on the draft board this year, his name will be looking awfully good to an awful lot of owners.

 

[David Yudkin]

Since his mega season, PM has averaged 4061/30 per year (over 3 seasons). He averaged 4148/28 over 6 6 prior to his mega season. Manning looks dialed in for his usual 4100/29.

 

[AnonymousBob]

4160 yards 30 touchdowns but in weeks 14/15 he plays the Bengals and The Lions.

He's probably going to be a great guy to target for your playoffs but that's for another thread.

 

[Iwannabeacowboybaby!]

What do you say that's not already been said about Peyton Manning. You expect a top 3 finish at the QB position in fantasy and Indy fans expect a SB.

4050 yards, 31 Td's and 17 Int's with 2 rushing Td's

It's noteworthy to add, Peyton Manning has had 7 rushing Td's the last 2 seasons.

 

[Jon_Moore]

He's going off the board in the early 2nd round, as opposed to the late 1st, if I have a good RB1 at the end of the 1st, I'd love to pair him with Peyton Manning. He's been as consistent as they come, never gets hurt. Lost one of the best receivers in NFL history, and still put up elite numbers. He has a great reciever in Wayne still, a great Tight end in Dallas clark, a top offensive line, and then he's got that whole being Peyton Manning thing going for him.

352/542

4271 Yards

33 TDs

11 INTs

18 Rushes

25 Yards

2 TD

 

[Davej626]

I have personally issued a sell statement on Peyton in keeper and Dynasty formats. Expect more insider information in the coming days.

Well????

 

[djcolts]

I have personally issued a sell statement on Peyton in keeper and Dynasty formats. Expect more insider information in the coming days.

Well????

Um...it's Finless...everything he posts is 100% accurate, without any shtick.

 

[David Yudkin]

Over the past 9 seasons (so ignoring his rookie season), Peyton's worst season was 302 fantasy points. His worst year was pretty much a career year for the huge majority of NFL QBs.

 

[rzrback77]

I am so excited that Tom Brady had his all-time NFL QB season last year and has moved into the consensus QB1 draft slot. Peyton Manning is still Peyton and that gives drafters not only consistency, but productive consistency. He has over 4,000 yards passing in eight of his ten seasons and his lowest was 3739 yards as a rookie. He has never had less than 26 TDs and has had over 30 four years, including the last two. Check out his career stats and especially teh VBD numbers. Those are even with him being drafted so early.

I think that his floor is about as solid as any fantasy player in any position. He never misses games and he always is prepared and ready to compete. In one of my local leagues, there is always one QB drafted early and this year it should be Brady. I am always a "wait on the QB" guy, but Manning will be on my hit list with an earlier pick this year. Like others, I think that the OL injuries and the missing Harrison were items that had to be overcome last season and I look for that to be less of an issue, whether Marvin returns or not. I see a very nice year for the elder Manning.

Peyton Manning 366 comp 550 atts 66.5% 4345 yards 7.9 ypa 35 TDs 12 ints & 40 yds rushing with 2 TDs

 

[The Jacket]

365/525

4250 yards

43 TD

10 INT

3 rush TD

 

[Chairshot]

If you are in a league where you can start 2 QBs, then I say Peyton is a first round pick.

Even if you can only start one, after LT2, he is probably the "safest" pick in the draft, in the sense that he has basically no question marks and a track record that, for all intents and purposes, indicates that he's as close to a lock as you can get.

 

[David Yudkin]

If you are in a league where you can start 2 QBs, then I say Peyton is a first round pick.Even if you can only start one, after LT2, he is probably the "safest" pick in the draft, in the sense that he has basically no question marks and a track record that, for all intents and purposes, indicates that he's as close to a lock as you can get.

We have debated ad nasuem where to take Manning and whether he's worth it. Yes, you know what you are getting in Manning . . . but you can often get similar production anywhere from 3 to 8 rounds later if you know what you are doing. The huge majority of the time, you can't bank on getting comparible production several rounds later at RB or WR. So while Manning is a safe pick and you know what you are getting, there is a decent chance that you are hurting your team at the other key positions. IMO, in real shark leagues that is more readily apparent than in local leagues with varying skill levels.Sadly, there is no way to prove or disprove either position (although it's been fun trying over the years).

 

[Chairshot]

If you are in a league where you can start 2 QBs, then I say Peyton is a first round pick.Even if you can only start one, after LT2, he is probably the "safest" pick in the draft, in the sense that he has basically no question marks and a track record that, for all intents and purposes, indicates that he's as close to a lock as you can get.

We have debated ad nasuem where to take Manning and whether he's worth it. Yes, you know what you are getting in Manning . . . but you can often get similar production anywhere from 3 to 8 rounds later if you know what you are doing. The huge majority of the time, you can't bank on getting comparible production several rounds later at RB or WR. So while Manning is a safe pick and you know what you are getting, there is a decent chance that you are hurting your team at the other key positions. IMO, in real shark leagues that is more readily apparent than in local leagues with varying skill levels.Sadly, there is no way to prove or disprove either position (although it's been fun trying over the years).

While I think it's true that you can normally get value that is similar in later rounds, those players seem to change on a regular basis (though I haven't actually looked it up to find out if that's truly the case). It was Carson Palmer for a while. Then it was Tony Romo. Maybe it will stay Romo, maybe it won't. Maybe it will be Palmer again.I agree that the shark move is to wait and try and get the sneaky guy that will perform close to Manning. I also think that Manning is one of the few that is a "safe" pick. There are risks associated with the other guys. I think the risk is about as low as you can get with Manning.But what do I know, I rarely draft a QB before the 5th round, anyway.

 

[David Yudkin]

If you are in a league where you can start 2 QBs, then I say Peyton is a first round pick.Even if you can only start one, after LT2, he is probably the "safest" pick in the draft, in the sense that he has basically no question marks and a track record that, for all intents and purposes, indicates that he's as close to a lock as you can get.

We have debated ad nasuem where to take Manning and whether he's worth it. Yes, you know what you are getting in Manning . . . but you can often get similar production anywhere from 3 to 8 rounds later if you know what you are doing. The huge majority of the time, you can't bank on getting comparible production several rounds later at RB or WR. So while Manning is a safe pick and you know what you are getting, there is a decent chance that you are hurting your team at the other key positions. IMO, in real shark leagues that is more readily apparent than in local leagues with varying skill levels.Sadly, there is no way to prove or disprove either position (although it's been fun trying over the years).

While I think it's true that you can normally get value that is similar in later rounds, those players seem to change on a regular basis (though I haven't actually looked it up to find out if that's truly the case). It was Carson Palmer for a while. Then it was Tony Romo. Maybe it will stay Romo, maybe it won't. Maybe it will be Palmer again.I agree that the shark move is to wait and try and get the sneaky guy that will perform close to Manning. I also think that Manning is one of the few that is a "safe" pick. There are risks associated with the other guys. I think the risk is about as low as you can get with Manning.But what do I know, I rarely draft a QB before the 5th round, anyway.

I'll try to be brief as this is likely not the right thread to be having this discussion, but IMO the chances of finding a 300 point QB in the 6-10 round are way higher than finding a 200 point RB or WR at the same stage of the draft. Sure, it may happen once in a blue moon but it won't happen often.It does involve more risk and it takes more skill, but each year there are guys that if you do your due diligence can reap huge dividends.Over the past few seasons, you can find guys at a discount that have done extremely well IF YOU GET THE THE YEAR BEFORE not the year after. The names are not all that surprising over the past few seasons: Brady, Romo, Roethlisberger, Hasselbeck, Vick, Bulger, Brees, Kitna, Green, Plummer, and maybe one or two others were pretty safe bets (and pretty inexpensive to acquire).I'm not saying that any drafting strategy is foolproof (or that I follow any particular plan), but IMO there are more chances to reap value later on for QB than any other position. That being said, if Manning fell to me in the third round, I'm taking him (maybe even in the late second depending how the draft is going).