Player Spotlight: Philip Rivers (1 Viewer)

[Jason Wood]

2007 Player Spotlight Series

Over the course of the offseason, we will be evaluating a multitude of players at every fantasy position. One such way we go about that is through the Player Spotlight series. Think of the Spotlights as a permanent record on some of the more intriguing players for the upcoming season. Each Spotlight will be featured in an article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Philip Rivers, QB, San Diego Chargers

Player Page Link: Philip Rivers Player Page

Each article will include:

Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads
FBG Projections
Consensus Member ProjectionsThe Rules

In order for this thread to provide sustainable value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

Focus commentary on the player in question, and your expectations for said player
Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
To be included in the final synopsis and consensus outlook, you MUST provide projections for the playerProjections should include (at a minimum):

For QBs: Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDsBest of Luck and ENJOY!

 

[Jon_Moore]

Really good stats even with Tomlinson running it allover the place. Having a year under his belt will obviously help. Improved Chemistry with Gates, an improved Vincent Jackson, and the drafting of Craig Davis should also help him take a step forward in the fantasy world. Having Tomlinson obviously takes alot of pressure off of the passing game as well. My favorite thing about this guy, is his efficiency, only 9 ints last year, I would expect a low number again this year. If there's ANY downside, he probably won't get you alot of rushing yards, of course, that's really killed Manning.

306/480

3650 yards

24 tds

9 Ints

35 rushing yards

MAYBE 1 rushing tds.

 

[shadyridr]

I like Rivers as a really good QB2 this year. Last year he started off red hot but was absolutely dreadful in the 2nd half. Did teams figure him out? I think thats a possibility but I also think Rivers is talented enough to make adjustments and have a good year. With LT and Turner in the backfield, passing yards wont be as high as other QBs but his TD passes should be very respectable. Ill say:

3500 pass yds, 22 tds, 14 ints, rush yds negligible

 

[Banger]

Smart, efficient QB on the top offense in the NFL coming off a good/great "rookie" campaign. Not a lot of holes in his game or his offense. His biggest problem is that LT is too good at scoring TD's otherwise his 22 td's from last year would have been around 26 easily.

The scary thing is that he and this offense will still probably improve. One of the best (if not the best) lines in the league is in tact, VJax is young and improving, they've added a big play threat (what they were truly missing last year) and they've got the best RB and TE in the league. H'es got a very high floor and upside is high.

3800-26-10

 

[Tau837]

I like Rivers as a really good QB2 this year. Last year he started off red hot but was absolutely dreadful in the 2nd half. Did teams figure him out? I think thats a possibility but I also think Rivers is talented enough to make adjustments and have a good year. With LT and Turner in the backfield, passing yards wont be as high as other QBs but his TD passes should be very respectable. Ill say:3500 pass yds, 22 tds, 14 ints, rush yds negligible

Why 14 interceptions?

 

[Tau837]

He plays in one of the top offenses in the NFL and now plays for an offensive guru in Turner. The running game should remain strong - even if LT regresses a bit, Turner could easily fill that regression. The OL should remain strong. Gates appears to still be the best receiving TE in the league. The WRs should be improved, with another year of experience for Parker, Jackson, and Floyd. If opportunities can be found for Davis and Sproles, it should only help.If anyone is worried that the change in coaching staff could impact Rivers, it shouldn't be a concern. He played for 3 offensive coordinators in his 4 years at N.C. State, and flourished under all of them.Rivers is extremely durable. He started all 17 of the Chargers' games last season, and he started an NCAA record 51 out of 51 games in college. That string included him playing through various injuries, including a couple that were non-trivial. I think this is one thing that is underappreciated about him. Also, he has a great offensive line and a quick release, and he doesn't run much, so he probably doesn't take as much punishment as many other QBs. For these reasons, I feel confident that he will play all 16 games.Rivers had 460 pass attempts last season. The Chargers as a team had 466. So he got essentially all of them that weren't trick plays. The Chargers averaged 500 passing attempts the 3 prior seasons, and clearly in the first few games last season it seemed that the Chargers offense was playing ultra-conservative to ease Rivers in, and thus season passing attempts were probably down a little.How will Norv influence the amount of passing? First off, he was brought in to maintain continuity in the offense, so there should not be drastic change. I think this Chargers team is comparable to the 1991-1993 Cowboys teams for which Norv was the offensive coordinator. Those teams averaged 489 passing attempts.So I'm going to assume 490 passing attempts.Here are Rivers' college statistics:

Rivers Career StatsYear GP-GS Ply Cmp-Att-Int Pct Yds   TD Lg Rush Att-Yds-TD Efficiency2000 11-11 787 237-441-10 .537 3,054 25 81 73-(85)-2	   126.092001 11-11 671 240-368-7  .625 2,586 16 56 44-(26)-2	   134.802002 14-14 884 262-418-10 .627 3,353 20 88 57-100-10	   141.072003 13-13 835 348-483-7  .720 4,491 34 80 78-109-3		170.49Totals 49-49 3,216 1,147-1,710-34 .671 13,484 95 88 252-98-17 144.16

Note: The stats above do not include the 2000 & 2001 bowl games for some reason, though they do include the bowl games in 2002 & 2003. So add these two games to the totals:2000 Micron PC.com Bowl - Rivers was 24/39 for 310 yards, 2 TDs, 2 ints, 2 2 pt conversions and added 3/9/0 rushing2001 Tangerine Bowl - Rivers was 26/40 for 189 yards, 1 TD, 1 int and added 9/7/0 rushing

His completion percentage, ypa, and efficiency went up every year. (Well, I guess increased efficiency was a byproduct of the other two.) Anyway, I would assume he will improve in the NFL as he did in college, and as most QBs do after their rookie seasons.He completed 61.7% of his passes last season for 7.4 ypa. I'd look for improvement in both, and I'll project 64% and 7.7 ypa.Given 490 attempts, that yields 314/490 for 3773 passing yards. I think he'll get another few TDs and hold the interceptions down.So I'll project 314/490 (64%) for 3773 passing yards (7.8 ypa), 26 TDs, 10 interceptions. With about 50 rushing yards and 0 rushing TDs.That's 288 fantasy points (FBG scoring), which last year would have ranked as QB7. He finished last season as QB9, so this seems about right in terms of reasonable improvement.I'm targeting him. Most of the QBs likely to finish above him - Peyton Manning, Brady, Brees, Palmer, Bulger, maybe McNabb - are bigger names and will go much earlier.

 

[tommyGunZ]

He plays in one of the top offenses in the NFL and now plays for an offensive guru in Turner. The running game should remain strong - even if LT regresses a bit, Turner could easily fill that regression. The OL should remain strong. Gates appears to still be the best receiving TE in the league. The WRs should be improved, with another year of experience for Parker, Jackson, and Floyd. If opportunities can be found for Davis and Sproles, it should only help.If anyone is worried that the change in coaching staff could impact Rivers, it shouldn't be a concern. He played for 3 offensive coordinators in his 4 years at N.C. State, and flourished under all of them.Rivers is extremely durable. He started all 17 of the Chargers' games last season, and he started an NCAA record 51 out of 51 games in college. That string included him playing through various injuries, including a couple that were non-trivial. I think this is one thing that is underappreciated about him. Also, he has a great offensive line and a quick release, and he doesn't run much, so he probably doesn't take as much punishment as many other QBs. For these reasons, I feel confident that he will play all 16 games.Rivers had 460 pass attempts last season. The Chargers as a team had 466. So he got essentially all of them that weren't trick plays. The Chargers averaged 500 passing attempts the 3 prior seasons, and clearly in the first few games last season it seemed that the Chargers offense was playing ultra-conservative to ease Rivers in, and thus season passing attempts were probably down a little.How will Norv influence the amount of passing? First off, he was brought in to maintain continuity in the offense, so there should not be drastic change. I think this Chargers team is comparable to the 1991-1993 Cowboys teams for which Norv was the offensive coordinator. Those teams averaged 489 passing attempts.So I'm going to assume 490 passing attempts.Here are Rivers' college statistics:

Rivers Career StatsYear GP-GS Ply Cmp-Att-Int Pct Yds   TD Lg Rush Att-Yds-TD Efficiency2000 11-11 787 237-441-10 .537 3,054 25 81 73-(85)-2	   126.092001 11-11 671 240-368-7  .625 2,586 16 56 44-(26)-2	   134.802002 14-14 884 262-418-10 .627 3,353 20 88 57-100-10	   141.072003 13-13 835 348-483-7  .720 4,491 34 80 78-109-3		170.49Totals 49-49 3,216 1,147-1,710-34 .671 13,484 95 88 252-98-17 144.16

Note: The stats above do not include the 2000 & 2001 bowl games for some reason, though they do include the bowl games in 2002 & 2003. So add these two games to the totals:2000 Micron PC.com Bowl - Rivers was 24/39 for 310 yards, 2 TDs, 2 ints, 2 2 pt conversions and added 3/9/0 rushing2001 Tangerine Bowl - Rivers was 26/40 for 189 yards, 1 TD, 1 int and added 9/7/0 rushing

His completion percentage, ypa, and efficiency went up every year. (Well, I guess increased efficiency was a byproduct of the other two.) Anyway, I would assume he will improve in the NFL as he did in college, and as most QBs do after their rookie seasons.He completed 61.7% of his passes last season for 7.4 ypa. I'd look for improvement in both, and I'll project 64% and 7.7 ypa.Given 490 attempts, that yields 314/490 for 3773 passing yards. I think he'll get another few TDs and hold the interceptions down.So I'll project 314/490 (64%) for 3773 passing yards (7.8 ypa), 26 TDs, 10 interceptions. With about 50 rushing yards and 0 rushing TDs.That's 288 fantasy points (FBG scoring), which last year would have ranked as QB7. He finished last season as QB9, so this seems about right in terms of reasonable improvement.I'm targeting him. Most of the QBs likely to finish above him - Peyton Manning, Brady, Brees, Palmer, Bulger, maybe McNabb - are bigger names and will go much earlier.

Great, great post JWB. Nothing really to add to your thoughts.I too expect Rivers to better his 2006 numbers, and LT2's expected TD regression should mean increased TDs for Rivers, IMO.

 

[Jason Wood]

He plays in one of the top offenses in the NFL and now plays for an offensive guru in Turner. The running game should remain strong - even if LT regresses a bit, Turner could easily fill that regression. The OL should remain strong. Gates appears to still be the best receiving TE in the league. The WRs should be improved, with another year of experience for Parker, Jackson, and Floyd. If opportunities can be found for Davis and Sproles, it should only help.

If anyone is worried that the change in coaching staff could impact Rivers, it shouldn't be a concern. He played for 3 offensive coordinators in his 4 years at N.C. State, and flourished under all of them.

Rivers is extremely durable. He started all 17 of the Chargers' games last season, and he started an NCAA record 51 out of 51 games in college. That string included him playing through various injuries, including a couple that were non-trivial. I think this is one thing that is underappreciated about him. Also, he has a great offensive line and a quick release, and he doesn't run much, so he probably doesn't take as much punishment as many other QBs. For these reasons, I feel confident that he will play all 16 games.

Rivers had 460 pass attempts last season. The Chargers as a team had 466. So he got essentially all of them that weren't trick plays. The Chargers averaged 500 passing attempts the 3 prior seasons, and clearly in the first few games last season it seemed that the Chargers offense was playing ultra-conservative to ease Rivers in, and thus season passing attempts were probably down a little.

How will Norv influence the amount of passing? First off, he was brought in to maintain continuity in the offense, so there should not be drastic change. I think this Chargers team is comparable to the 1991-1993 Cowboys teams for which Norv was the offensive coordinator. Those teams averaged 489 passing attempts.

So I'm going to assume 490 passing attempts.

Here are Rivers' college statistics:

Rivers Career StatsYear GP-GS Ply Cmp-Att-Int Pct Yds TD Lg Rush Att-Yds-TD Efficiency2000 11-11 787 237-441-10 .537 3,054 25 81 73-(85)-2 126.092001 11-11 671 240-368-7 .625 2,586 16 56 44-(26)-2 134.802002 14-14 884 262-418-10 .627 3,353 20 88 57-100-10 141.072003 13-13 835 348-483-7 .720 4,491 34 80 78-109-3 170.49Totals 49-49 3,216 1,147-1,710-34 .671 13,484 95 88 252-98-17 144.16Note: The stats above do not include the 2000 & 2001 bowl games for some reason, though they do include the bowl games in 2002 & 2003. So add these two games to the totals:2000 Micron PC.com Bowl - Rivers was 24/39 for 310 yards, 2 TDs, 2 ints, 2 2 pt conversions and added 3/9/0 rushing

2001 Tangerine Bowl - Rivers was 26/40 for 189 yards, 1 TD, 1 int and added 9/7/0 rushing

His completion percentage, ypa, and efficiency went up every year. (Well, I guess increased efficiency was a byproduct of the other two.) Anyway, I would assume he will improve in the NFL as he did in college, and as most QBs do after their rookie seasons.He completed 61.7% of his passes last season for 7.4 ypa. I'd look for improvement in both, and I'll project 64% and 7.7 ypa.

Given 490 attempts, that yields 314/490 for 3773 passing yards. I think he'll get another few TDs and hold the interceptions down.

So I'll project 314/490 (64%) for 3773 passing yards (7.8 ypa), 26 TDs, 10 interceptions. With about 50 rushing yards and 0 rushing TDs.

That's 288 fantasy points (FBG scoring), which last year would have ranked as QB7. He finished last season as QB9, so this seems about right in terms of reasonable improvement.

I'm targeting him. Most of the QBs likely to finish above him - Peyton Manning, Brady, Brees, Palmer, Bulger, maybe McNabb - are bigger names and will go much earlier.

In the last five seasons, a QB has completed 7.7 yards per attempt or better 23 times [among qualified passers]:QBs sorted by yards per attempt (YPA): 2002-2006

You're that confident Rivers will be among the best in the league in that metric even though his two best receiving options are a running back and a tight end?

 

[Tau837]

He plays in one of the top offenses in the NFL and now plays for an offensive guru in Turner. The running game should remain strong - even if LT regresses a bit, Turner could easily fill that regression. The OL should remain strong. Gates appears to still be the best receiving TE in the league. The WRs should be improved, with another year of experience for Parker, Jackson, and Floyd. If opportunities can be found for Davis and Sproles, it should only help.

If anyone is worried that the change in coaching staff could impact Rivers, it shouldn't be a concern. He played for 3 offensive coordinators in his 4 years at N.C. State, and flourished under all of them.

Rivers is extremely durable. He started all 17 of the Chargers' games last season, and he started an NCAA record 51 out of 51 games in college. That string included him playing through various injuries, including a couple that were non-trivial. I think this is one thing that is underappreciated about him. Also, he has a great offensive line and a quick release, and he doesn't run much, so he probably doesn't take as much punishment as many other QBs. For these reasons, I feel confident that he will play all 16 games.

Rivers had 460 pass attempts last season. The Chargers as a team had 466. So he got essentially all of them that weren't trick plays. The Chargers averaged 500 passing attempts the 3 prior seasons, and clearly in the first few games last season it seemed that the Chargers offense was playing ultra-conservative to ease Rivers in, and thus season passing attempts were probably down a little.

How will Norv influence the amount of passing? First off, he was brought in to maintain continuity in the offense, so there should not be drastic change. I think this Chargers team is comparable to the 1991-1993 Cowboys teams for which Norv was the offensive coordinator. Those teams averaged 489 passing attempts.

So I'm going to assume 490 passing attempts.

Here are Rivers' college statistics:

Rivers Career StatsYear GP-GS Ply Cmp-Att-Int Pct Yds TD Lg Rush Att-Yds-TD Efficiency2000 11-11 787 237-441-10 .537 3,054 25 81 73-(85)-2 126.092001 11-11 671 240-368-7 .625 2,586 16 56 44-(26)-2 134.802002 14-14 884 262-418-10 .627 3,353 20 88 57-100-10 141.072003 13-13 835 348-483-7 .720 4,491 34 80 78-109-3 170.49Totals 49-49 3,216 1,147-1,710-34 .671 13,484 95 88 252-98-17 144.16Note: The stats above do not include the 2000 & 2001 bowl games for some reason, though they do include the bowl games in 2002 & 2003. So add these two games to the totals:2000 Micron PC.com Bowl - Rivers was 24/39 for 310 yards, 2 TDs, 2 ints, 2 2 pt conversions and added 3/9/0 rushing

2001 Tangerine Bowl - Rivers was 26/40 for 189 yards, 1 TD, 1 int and added 9/7/0 rushing

His completion percentage, ypa, and efficiency went up every year. (Well, I guess increased efficiency was a byproduct of the other two.) Anyway, I would assume he will improve in the NFL as he did in college, and as most QBs do after their rookie seasons.He completed 61.7% of his passes last season for 7.4 ypa. I'd look for improvement in both, and I'll project 64% and 7.7 ypa.

Given 490 attempts, that yields 314/490 for 3773 passing yards. I think he'll get another few TDs and hold the interceptions down.

So I'll project 314/490 (64%) for 3773 passing yards (7.8 ypa), 26 TDs, 10 interceptions. With about 50 rushing yards and 0 rushing TDs.

That's 288 fantasy points (FBG scoring), which last year would have ranked as QB7. He finished last season as QB9, so this seems about right in terms of reasonable improvement.

I'm targeting him. Most of the QBs likely to finish above him - Peyton Manning, Brady, Brees, Palmer, Bulger, maybe McNabb - are bigger names and will go much earlier.

In the last five seasons, a QB has completed 7.7 yards per attempt or better 23 times [among qualified passers]:QBs sorted by yards per attempt (YPA): 2002-2006

You're that confident Rivers will be among the best in the league in that metric even though his two best receiving options are a running back and a tight end?

Yes. Note the following:1. Look at the guys on your list. Trent Green is on there 4 times - his main targets have been TE and RB. Drew Brees is on there from 2004 - same targets as Rivers.

2. Rivers' RBs collectively averaged 8.4 ypr last year. Gates averaged 13.0 ypr last year - higher than in his two good years with Brees. Not such a bad thing to throw to them.

3. As I said, I think both Rivers and his receivers will likely improve.

4. I expect the Chargers to be more comfortable and effective throwing deep this year. Norv supposedly likes to throw deep. The coaching staff won't start the season treating Rivers with kid gloves. McCardell (12.1 ypr last year) is gone, and his targets will presumably be spread among Jackson (16.8 ypr last year), Floyd (14 ypr last year), and Parker (13.7 ypr last year). Not to mention that Davis and Sproles may add big play ability they didn't have last year.

5. Speaking of Norv, from 1991 to 1993, when he was OC, Troy Aikman averaged 7.7 ypa on 1415 attempts (regular season and playoffs). ETA: I mention this because I already noted that I think there are reasonable similarities between those Dallas teams and this Chargers team.

6. After 10 games last season, Rivers was averaging 7.69 ypa... for the reasons above, I expect him to sustain it for 6 more games this year.

Now, all that said, is that critical to my projection? If he averages only 7.6 ypa on 490 attempts, that will result in 49 fewer passing yards. Not really a big deal... that could be made up for by rushing for 100 instead of 50... or one more TD, passing or rushing.

Here's some more trivia for you. In the last five seasons, a QB has attempted 460 (or more) passes and thrown 8 or fewer interceptions only 4 times: QBs sorted by passing attempts: 2002-2006. Rivers was one of them as a first year starter.

 

[AnonymousBob]

They were one of the better offenses last year. People are expecting LT to regress to a relatively mortal td total so why will those td's simply fall to the passing game? Why will LT regress but not the offense as a whole?