Player Spotlight: Randy Moss (1 Viewer)

[Jason Wood]

2009 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. Last year, we published more than 120 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters. This year will be no different.

Each week we will post a list of players to be discussed. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discussion expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Randy Moss, WR, New England Patriots

Player Page Link: Randy Moss Player Page

Each article will include:

Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads
FBG Projections
Consensus Member ProjectionsThe Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

Focus commentary on the player in question, and your expectations for said player
Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
To be included in the final synopsis and consensus outlook, you MUST provide projections for the playerProjections should include (at a minimum):

For QBs: Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDsNow let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

 

[dansav]

86/1312/14tds

 

[Blackjacks]

I think some people are undervalueing Moss this year.

He had 1000 yards and 11 td's with Cassel last year and anyone that watched him throw saw that he couldn't do the one thing Randy does best which is go deep. Now with Brady back 100% I think Moss is in store for a big year and I htink if you can get him early 2nd round you should be giddy.

84 catches

1250 yards

16 td's

 

[David Yudkin]

I think some people are undervalueing Moss this year.He had 1000 yards and 11 td's with Cassel last year and anyone that watched him throw saw that he couldn't do the one thing Randy does best which is go deep. Now with Brady back 100% I think Moss is in store for a big year and I htink if you can get him early 2nd round you should be giddy.84 catches1250 yards16 td's

I'd go even higher receptions and yardage wise.

 

[mlball77]

Awesome WR paired with an awesome QB... but that QB may take a couple of games to really get back into the swing of things 100%.

Recs: 80

Yds: 1200

TDs: 14

 

[Darker Knight]

90/1350/15....back with Brady means stock up for Randy....

 

[Blackjacks]

I think some people are undervalueing Moss this year.He had 1000 yards and 11 td's with Cassel last year and anyone that watched him throw saw that he couldn't do the one thing Randy does best which is go deep. Now with Brady back 100% I think Moss is in store for a big year and I htink if you can get him early 2nd round you should be giddy.84 catches1250 yards16 td's

I'd go even higher receptions and yardage wise.

The only reason I didn't is because I do think Galloway will get a couple of deep looks and I think they might run a little more than in years' past. I do however still feel confident that Randy gets his.

 

[David Yudkin]

I think some people are undervalueing Moss this year.He had 1000 yards and 11 td's with Cassel last year and anyone that watched him throw saw that he couldn't do the one thing Randy does best which is go deep. Now with Brady back 100% I think Moss is in store for a big year and I htink if you can get him early 2nd round you should be giddy.84 catches1250 yards16 td's

I'd go even higher receptions and yardage wise.

The only reason I didn't is because I do think Galloway will get a couple of deep looks and I think they might run a little more than in years' past. I do however still feel confident that Randy gets his.

I think Lewis ends up with better numbers than Galloway, but that certainly is not very scientific in concluding that.

 

[brutha]

no-brainer first WR to take and WELL higher than any other.

 

[fightingillini]

Randy Moss is a guy that I will try and roster in every league that I am in. Based on last year, you can get him a little cheaper. At an ADP of WR4, you can draft a solid RB in round 1 and have a chance at him in Round 2. He will be back to dominating again, as long as Brady stays healthy.

88 Rec, 1350 Yds, 14 TD

 

[Buffaloes]

Any worries about a slow start and the Pats possibly running the ball more than in 2007 to protect Brady's knee? The Patriots were extremely effective running the ball last year. I still think Moss is every bit an elite WR option but I'm not quite ready to elevate him to pre-Brady injury status just yet. I have him lumped with Larry Fitzgerald, Andre Johnson and Calvin Johnson.

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

Any worries about a slow start and the Pats possibly running the ball more than in 2007 to protect Brady's knee? The Patriots were extremely effective running the ball last year. I still think Moss is every bit an elite WR option but I'm not quite ready to elevate him to pre-Brady injury status just yet. I have him lumped with Larry Fitzgerald, Andre Johnson and Calvin Johnson.

I'm not sure the Pats will have any kind of slow start passing the ball because of running more than '07.Here's how they started '07, and tell me if you think they might run significantly more than this:2007week1 (NE 38 NYJ 14) - rushes 37 passes 28week2 (NE 38 NYJ 14) - ra 32 pa 31week3 (NE 38 Buf 07) - ra 38 pa 29I think right about here is where we lost Maroney.week4 (NE 34 Cin 13) - ra 34 pa 32week5 (NE 34 Cle 17) - ra 32 pa 38week6 is where we lose Morris for the season.Our RB at this point is Kyle Eckel, with FB Heath Evans getting some carries.

 

[Buffaloes]

Any worries about a slow start and the Pats possibly running the ball more than in 2007 to protect Brady's knee? The Patriots were extremely effective running the ball last year. I still think Moss is every bit an elite WR option but I'm not quite ready to elevate him to pre-Brady injury status just yet. I have him lumped with Larry Fitzgerald, Andre Johnson and Calvin Johnson.

I'm not sure the Pats will have any kind of slow start passing the ball because of running more than '07.Here's how they started '07, and tell me if you think they might run significantly more than this:2007week1 (NE 38 NYJ 14) - rushes 37 passes 28week2 (NE 38 NYJ 14) - ra 32 pa 31week3 (NE 38 Buf 07) - ra 38 pa 29I think right about here is where we lost Maroney.week4 (NE 34 Cin 13) - ra 34 pa 32week5 (NE 34 Cle 17) - ra 32 pa 38week6 is where we lose Morris for the season.Our RB at this point is Kyle Eckel, with FB Heath Evans getting some carries.

Good info. I did not realize the Pats ran the ball that much in 2007.

 

[David Yudkin]

For those that will mention that Moss' numbers tailed off at the end of 07 and into the post season that year, be reminded that Moss was in the middle of some legal wranglings stemming from off field allegations with a female friend. IMO, that played into his disappearing act. So while I still think teams may have learned how to better defend against him, I still think Moss + Brady = big returns if Brady can get his mojo back.

FWIW, I keep seeing/hearing that physically Brady is way ahead of schedule and should be able to do everything physically that he needs to. The issues he's had to date have been dealing with any minor recovery/transition issues, trusting his repaired knee, and a lot of rust from not playing football for an extended period. So far, he has not been very accurate on his passes and has not been in sync timing wise, but I'm guessing that is correctible and a lot less to worry about than if their were injury recovery problems.

 

[bostonfred]

The only thing I have dinging Moss' value is that the Pats won't want to put Brady at risk by having him drop back for long passes very often. That's good news for Welker, bad news for Moss.

 

[NFLFan80]

I expect Moss to have a great season with Brady coming back.

85 catches, 1350 yards, 15 TDs

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

Any worries about a slow start and the Pats possibly running the ball more than in 2007 to protect Brady's knee? The Patriots were extremely effective running the ball last year. I still think Moss is every bit an elite WR option but I'm not quite ready to elevate him to pre-Brady injury status just yet. I have him lumped with Larry Fitzgerald, Andre Johnson and Calvin Johnson.

I'm not sure the Pats will have any kind of slow start passing the ball because of running more than '07.Here's how they started '07, and tell me if you think they might run significantly more than this:2007week1 (NE 38 NYJ 14) - rushes 37 passes 28week2 (NE 38 NYJ 14) - ra 32 pa 31week3 (NE 38 Buf 07) - ra 38 pa 29I think right about here is where we lost Maroney.week4 (NE 34 Cin 13) - ra 34 pa 32week5 (NE 34 Cle 17) - ra 32 pa 38week6 is where we lose Morris for the season.Our RB at this point is Kyle Eckel, with FB Heath Evans getting some carries.

Good info. I did not realize the Pats ran the ball that much in 2007.

Yeah, I think a lot of people would say that, but what you should know is that while Belichick might abandon the run on occasion due to circumstance and opponent, or generally throw different looks out on the field, his overall approach is a fairly balanced offense.The Pats might've thrown a little more in '07 due to things like having an entirely new corps of receivers, or a bunch of injured RBs, but that offense should dominate ToP, and garner plenty of run opps late in games, so things tend to balance out in the longer term.I don't think they ended up running much in the superbowl *weeps silently*, but if you check out the SD playoff game, you might note they ran the ball about 20x in the second half alone, closing the game out on a suffocating 9 min drive.

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

Also, if I could add a comment on them protecting Brady --- while the '07 team faced quite a few pass rushing threats, I'm not sure the '09 schedule looks so intimidating, if you want to check it out.

Although, I know a few people on here don't like to look at the coming year's strength of schedule.

 

[StackTheLine]

•2) From Keith Pats FanI'd be really interested to see what kind of connection our QB's and WR's have built so far. I know there has always been much talk about Brady and the rapport he had built with Moss ... but how does that look with Brady being injured for a year? Did they pick up where they left off? What about with our new additions in Galloway and Lewis? Any observations with O'Connell and Hoyer with the WR's or TE's?At one point in the practice, while the team was working on the punt return, Brady and Moss were on the opposite field working together 1 on 1 in the red zone. At another point, Brady motioned a hand signal to Moss as the two went through some passing drills. I think your point hit on a big part of what this practice was all about – getting on the same page.......

 

[David Yudkin]

•2) From Keith Pats FanI'd be really interested to see what kind of connection our QB's and WR's have built so far. I know there has always been much talk about Brady and the rapport he had built with Moss ... but how does that look with Brady being injured for a year? Did they pick up where they left off? What about with our new additions in Galloway and Lewis? Any observations with O'Connell and Hoyer with the WR's or TE's?At one point in the practice, while the team was working on the punt return, Brady and Moss were on the opposite field working together 1 on 1 in the red zone. At another point, Brady motioned a hand signal to Moss as the two went through some passing drills. I think your point hit on a big part of what this practice was all about – getting on the same page.......

Brady and Moss had at least a dozen private practice sessions together in the off season to work on their chemistry and get in sync. That's why I think Moss will be near his 07 ttoals but with fewer TD.

 

[Tanner9919]

The only thing I have dinging Moss' value is that the Pats won't want to put Brady at risk by having him drop back for long passes very often. That's good news for Welker, bad news for Moss.

great answer!Dropping BRady back as muhc as they did in 2007 is suicide for NE..and don't forget the few DE's that will most definitely be taking cheap shots at Brady's knee(s).

difference is, the defenses in the AFC East have improved tremendously since the 2007 season..

Brady's Chuck-n-Duck offense isn't going to be anything close to what it once was..and what happens in BB loses Brady again, what QB is he turning to now?

also, no one is talking about the loss of McDaniels, and how that's going to effect the offensive play-calling..

Moss is up there in age, has he finally lost a step? who knows..it happens to every NFL player at some point..T.O. fell off tremendously last season, he couldn't get off the line of scrimmage as cleanly as he had in the past..he looked slow..

Moss is now 32 years old.He has a lot of mileage on his legs..I'm not saying he's going to fall apart like Marvin Harrison but eventually these older stars fizzle out..perhaps that starts this season with Moss...

good numbers, but not Moss-like...

75/1050/10

 

[MAC_32]

Is the Brady we're getting the one from 2007? or a version of Carson Palmer post ACL surgery?

Last year showed Moss will get his regardless, but whether Moss is top 5-10 or the best WR in the game again depends on that question. I'm not sure if I'll rank him #1, but he's definitely in my top 4 with Fitz and the Johnson's.

 

[Frenchy Fuqua]

Got to like Moss this year. The Pats D may even force Brady to throw in the second half of games.

88 catches

1300 yards

16 TD

 

[Lott's Fingertip]

The only thing I have dinging Moss' value is that the Pats won't want to put Brady at risk by having him drop back for long passes very often. That's good news for Welker, bad news for Moss.

great answer!Dropping BRady back as muhc as they did in 2007 is suicide for NE..and don't forget the few DE's that will most definitely be taking cheap shots at Brady's knee(s).

difference is, the defenses in the AFC East have improved tremendously since the 2007 season..

Brady's Chuck-n-Duck offense isn't going to be anything close to what it once was..and what happens in BB loses Brady again, what QB is he turning to now?

also, no one is talking about the loss of McDaniels, and how that's going to effect the offensive play-calling..

Moss is up there in age, has he finally lost a step? who knows..it happens to every NFL player at some point..T.O. fell off tremendously last season, he couldn't get off the line of scrimmage as cleanly as he had in the past..he looked slow..

Moss is now 32 years old.He has a lot of mileage on his legs..I'm not saying he's going to fall apart like Marvin Harrison but eventually these older stars fizzle out..perhaps that starts this season with Moss...

good numbers, but not Moss-like...

75/1050/10

So he scores fewer points this year with Brady than he did last year with Cassel?

 

[Darker Knight]

The only thing I have dinging Moss' value is that the Pats won't want to put Brady at risk by having him drop back for long passes very often. That's good news for Welker, bad news for Moss.

great answer!Dropping BRady back as muhc as they did in 2007 is suicide for NE..and don't forget the few DE's that will most definitely be taking cheap shots at Brady's knee(s).

difference is, the defenses in the AFC East have improved tremendously since the 2007 season..

Brady's Chuck-n-Duck offense isn't going to be anything close to what it once was..and what happens in BB loses Brady again, what QB is he turning to now?

also, no one is talking about the loss of McDaniels, and how that's going to effect the offensive play-calling..

Moss is up there in age, has he finally lost a step? who knows..it happens to every NFL player at some point..T.O. fell off tremendously last season, he couldn't get off the line of scrimmage as cleanly as he had in the past..he looked slow..

Moss is now 32 years old.He has a lot of mileage on his legs..I'm not saying he's going to fall apart like Marvin Harrison but eventually these older stars fizzle out..perhaps that starts this season with Moss...

good numbers, but not Moss-like...

75/1050/10

So he scores fewer points this year with Brady than he did last year with Cassel?

Tanner9919 seems to low-ball most projections

 

[Adebisi]

The only thing I have dinging Moss' value is that the Pats won't want to put Brady at risk by having him drop back for long passes very often. That's good news for Welker, bad news for Moss.

great answer!Dropping BRady back as muhc as they did in 2007 is suicide for NE..and don't forget the few DE's that will most definitely be taking cheap shots at Brady's knee(s).

difference is, the defenses in the AFC East have improved tremendously since the 2007 season..

Brady's Chuck-n-Duck offense isn't going to be anything close to what it once was..and what happens in BB loses Brady again, what QB is he turning to now?

also, no one is talking about the loss of McDaniels, and how that's going to effect the offensive play-calling..

Moss is up there in age, has he finally lost a step? who knows..it happens to every NFL player at some point..T.O. fell off tremendously last season, he couldn't get off the line of scrimmage as cleanly as he had in the past..he looked slow..

Moss is now 32 years old.He has a lot of mileage on his legs..I'm not saying he's going to fall apart like Marvin Harrison but eventually these older stars fizzle out..perhaps that starts this season with Moss...

good numbers, but not Moss-like...

75/1050/10

I don't really understand some of this. Is Brady now significantly more susceptible to injury than he was before? That's an actual question; I don't know the answer, but I haven't read anything that so much as hints towards that. If not, why would the Patriots be more cautious this year than they were in 2007? I would guess that as of right now, they probably have roughly the same confidence in O'Connell than they did in Cassell at any point during the 2007 season (and perhaps more since they've seen another QB besides Brady do an adequate job of running the offense).As for the loss of McDaniels, I really don't see this being a huge deal. Brady and Belichick both know that offense inside and out.

Aside from that, I don't really see why New England's offense wouldn't be "anything close to what it once was." The team finished 8th in offense last year despite going from arguably the best QB in the league to a guy who hadn't started since high school. Every relevant player from 2007 is back (except Stallworth, but he was the 4th WR by the end of the year), they've all got more experience in this system now (2007 was the first year in the system for both Moss and Welker), and they're a deeper team offensively at every position other than QB than they were in 2007.

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

difference is, the defenses in the AFC East have improved tremendously since the 2007 season..

Could we get some documentation on that?Also, you might note division games count for only 6 of 16 games.

Brady's Chuck-n-Duck offense isn't going to be anything close to what it once was..and what happens in BB loses Brady again, what QB is he turning to now?

O'Connell.

 

[jurb26]

Moss should again finish as the #1 WR in fantasy. In all reality had anyone with a decent deep ball been playing QB for NE last year then Moss would have finished #1 last year as well. I'm sure there will be a hang over for Brady in his return from a full season off. However, Brady is one of the hardest working players in the NFL so I don't think it is anything to worry about in the grand scheme of things. We will not see record breaking numbers again this year but still very good numbers.

95 receptions, 1405 yds, 16 TDs

 

[Phlash]

Moss should again finish as the #1 WR in fantasy. In all reality had anyone with a decent deep ball been playing QB for NE last year then Moss would have finished #1 last year as well. I'm sure there will be a hang over for Brady in his return from a full season off. However, Brady is one of the hardest working players in the NFL so I don't think it is anything to worry about in the grand scheme of things. We will not see record breaking numbers again this year but still very good numbers.95 receptions, 1405 yds, 16 TDs

Those are almost exactly my projections as well. #1 receiver in football right now based on his Hall of Fame caliber skills and Hall of Fame caliber QB

 

[StackTheLine]

Chemistry class The last time Brady and Randy Moss played a full season together (2007), both ended up with NFL records - Brady threw 50 TD passes and Moss hauled in 23 TD receptions.Watching them work this offseason, it's obvious their bond goes beyond talent and is the result of time spent on the practice field as well."I swear they make up routes on the fly some of the time," said second-year cornerback Terrence Wheatley, when asked if he noticed special chemistry between the two. "They definitely got their chemistry going. They know how to work off of each other. They see things that I wish I could see; it would make my job a lot easier for sure."

 

[rzrback77]

I just am not a believer in Randy Moss for 09 at his ADP of WR4. I think that folks expect a repeat of 07 and to me that is not an accurate expectation. I think that is due to more than Brady returning from injury, but that does play a role. I think that the Patriots passed way more in 07 because they needed to and others could not stop them. I think that the defenses have had time to adjust and that the Patriots always seem to surprise folks. I just expect them to rely on the run more than the pass in 09.

A quick look at Brady's attempts over the years

01 15 gms 413 pass attempts 6.9 ypa 18 TDs

02 16 gms 601 pass attempts 6.3 ypa 28 TDs

03 16 gms 527 pass attempts 6.9 ypa 23 TDs

04 16 gms 474 pass attempts 7.8 ypa 28 TDs

05 16 gms 530 pass attempts 7.8 ypa 26 TDs

06 16 gms 516 pass attempts 6.8 ypa 24 TDs

07 16 gms 578 pass attempts 8.3 ypa 50 TDs

08 Cassel 16 gms 516 pass atts 7.2 ypa 21 TDs

I just see to much jump from the mean in 07. Not that it isn't possible, but it sure seems unlikely. Much more likely for 30 or less TDs. Much more likely for 530 attempts than 580. Much more likely for 7.3 ypa than 8.3. I think that he is dangerous and should have top ten WR ranking at season's end, but I expect more volatility with Moss due to less targets and catches than other top five candidate WRs like Fitzgerald, CJ, and AJ. Still s solid year.

Randy Moss 75 catches 1125 yards 15.0 ypc and 13 TDs

 

[David Yudkin]

I just am not a believer in Randy Moss for 09 at his ADP of WR4. I think that folks expect a repeat of 07 and to me that is not an accurate expectation. I think that is due to more than Brady returning from injury, but that does play a role. I think that the Patriots passed way more in 07 because they needed to and others could not stop them. I think that the defenses have had time to adjust and that the Patriots always seem to surprise folks. I just expect them to rely on the run more than the pass in 09.A quick look at Brady's attempts over the years01 15 gms 413 pass attempts 6.9 ypa 18 TDs02 16 gms 601 pass attempts 6.3 ypa 28 TDs 03 16 gms 527 pass attempts 6.9 ypa 23 TDs04 16 gms 474 pass attempts 7.8 ypa 28 TDs05 16 gms 530 pass attempts 7.8 ypa 26 TDs06 16 gms 516 pass attempts 6.8 ypa 24 TDs07 16 gms 578 pass attempts 8.3 ypa 50 TDs08 Cassel 16 gms 516 pass atts 7.2 ypa 21 TDsI just see to much jump from the mean in 07. Not that it isn't possible, but it sure seems unlikely. Much more likely for 30 or less TDs. Much more likely for 530 attempts than 580. Much more likely for 7.3 ypa than 8.3. I think that he is dangerous and should have top ten WR ranking at season's end, but I expect more volatility with Moss due to less targets and catches than other top five candidate WRs like Fitzgerald, CJ, and AJ. Still s solid year. Randy Moss 75 catches 1125 yards 15.0 ypc and 13 TDs

I will end up having more to say down stream as I am actually writing the Moss Player Spotlight, but IMO listing off all the stats when the offense had a completley different cast of characters seems like the wrong thing to do.Are we to really expect the Patriots to have the same results with Randy Moss, Wes Welker, et al compare to a team that started Reche Caldwell and a mid 30s Troy Brown? Should we really consider last year when Matt Cassel literally got on the job experience?The Patriots are going to utilize their best weapons . . . and Moss is their best offensive weapon. I doubt he will see 20+ TD again, but everything else should be pretty close to 2007 IMO. In fact, this year I think the Pats will have more offensive yardage overall than in 2007 . . . but they will have a harder time getting into the end zone.

 

[gianmarco]

Is the Brady we're getting the one from 2007? or a version of Carson Palmer post ACL surgery?

Last year showed Moss will get his regardless, but whether Moss is top 5-10 or the best WR in the game again depends on that question. I'm not sure if I'll rank him #1, but he's definitely in my top 4 with Fitz and the Johnson's.

The Palmer version that threw for 4035/28/13 in his 1st year back post ACL surgery? I'll take that.

 

[MAC_32]

Is the Brady we're getting the one from 2007? or a version of Carson Palmer post ACL surgery?

Last year showed Moss will get his regardless, but whether Moss is top 5-10 or the best WR in the game again depends on that question. I'm not sure if I'll rank him #1, but he's definitely in my top 4 with Fitz and the Johnson's.

The Palmer version that threw for 4035/28/13 in his 1st year back post ACL surgery? I'll take that.

IIRC he (noticably) struggled early and then regained his form later in the season, I don't remember where and when I read the quotes but he admitted later on the mental hurdles coming back from the torn ACL were especially taxing and effected his play somewhat. Basically, expecting 2007 Tom Brady would be naive, it's possible but it's also possible that he takes several weeks to get comfortable in the pocket again which should negatively impact Moss' production, especially because his value lies heavily with the deep ball.

 

[gianmarco]

Is the Brady we're getting the one from 2007? or a version of Carson Palmer post ACL surgery?

Last year showed Moss will get his regardless, but whether Moss is top 5-10 or the best WR in the game again depends on that question. I'm not sure if I'll rank him #1, but he's definitely in my top 4 with Fitz and the Johnson's.

The Palmer version that threw for 4035/28/13 in his 1st year back post ACL surgery? I'll take that.

IIRC he (noticably) struggled early and then regained his form later in the season, I don't remember where and when I read the quotes but he admitted later on the mental hurdles coming back from the torn ACL were especially taxing and effected his play somewhat. Basically, expecting 2007 Tom Brady would be naive, it's possible but it's also possible that he takes several weeks to get comfortable in the pocket again which should negatively impact Moss' production, especially because his value lies heavily with the deep ball.

I remember the opposite that most were amazed how well he did post ACL surgery. The mental hurdles might have been there, but the production wasn't lacking at all. Again, using Carson Palmer in his 1st year back as an example of a worst-case scenario isn't that good of an argument considering how well he did. I'm not saying he's the rule and that others haven't struggled because they most certainly have. Likewise, it's very possible that Brady does struggle. My only point is that Carson isn't the best example to use to drive home that point because those #'s are phenomenal. Btw, here are his #'s to start the season thru week 8, so I don't think he really started slowly either (except for week 1 and week 3)

1 CIN KC 13 19 127 0 0 2 -1 0 6.2 [play-by-play] 2 CIN CLE 24 40 352 2 2 3 1 0 23.7 [play-by-play] 3 CIN PIT 18 26 193 4 2 3 5 0 26.1 [play-by-play] 4 CIN NE 20 35 245 0 0 0 0 0 12.2 [play-by-play] 6 CIN TB 24 37 261 1 0 2 1 0 18.2 [play-by-play] 7 CIN CAR 23 39 240 2 0 1 6 0 22.6 [play-by-play] 8 CIN ATL 24 36 266 2 0 1 7 0 24.0 [play-by-play]

 

[MAC_32]

Is the Brady we're getting the one from 2007? or a version of Carson Palmer post ACL surgery?

Last year showed Moss will get his regardless, but whether Moss is top 5-10 or the best WR in the game again depends on that question. I'm not sure if I'll rank him #1, but he's definitely in my top 4 with Fitz and the Johnson's.

The Palmer version that threw for 4035/28/13 in his 1st year back post ACL surgery? I'll take that.

IIRC he (noticably) struggled early and then regained his form later in the season, I don't remember where and when I read the quotes but he admitted later on the mental hurdles coming back from the torn ACL were especially taxing and effected his play somewhat. Basically, expecting 2007 Tom Brady would be naive, it's possible but it's also possible that he takes several weeks to get comfortable in the pocket again which should negatively impact Moss' production, especially because his value lies heavily with the deep ball.

I remember the opposite that most were amazed how well he did post ACL surgery. The mental hurdles might have been there, but the production wasn't lacking at all. Again, using Carson Palmer in his 1st year back as an example of a worst-case scenario isn't that good of an argument considering how well he did. I'm not saying he's the rule and that others haven't struggled because they most certainly have. Likewise, it's very possible that Brady does struggle. My only point is that Carson isn't the best example to use to drive home that point because those #'s are phenomenal. Btw, here are his #'s to start the season thru week 8, so I don't think he really started slowly either (except for week 1 and week 3)

1 CIN KC 13 19 127 0 0 2 -1 0 6.2 [play-by-play] 2 CIN CLE 24 40 352 2 2 3 1 0 23.7 [play-by-play] 3 CIN PIT 18 26 193 4 2 3 5 0 26.1 [play-by-play] 4 CIN NE 20 35 245 0 0 0 0 0 12.2 [play-by-play] 6 CIN TB 24 37 261 1 0 2 1 0 18.2 [play-by-play] 7 CIN CAR 23 39 240 2 0 1 6 0 22.6 [play-by-play] 8 CIN ATL 24 36 266 2 0 1 7 0 24.0 [play-by-play]

If it isn't obvious by now I'm not a huge numbers guy when it comes to fantasy football, I mean, it is about the numbers in the end but I think the majority of avid players rely too heavily on past data and less on non-number related factors when making projections. I get that the production was there for Carson, I'm not sure how much that says given the other available information in Brady's case. Carson discussed about his discomfort in the pocket, which makes perfect sense, does this also happen to Brady? what if the first big hit he receives causes him to be more trigger happy? These are things that will not help Moss receive the deep balls that led to his record setting season. Maybe Bellichik opts to protect his QB more this season and lean on the run a bit more? There's a lot of factors to consider, we all know what Brady and Moss' upside is, but how low are their respective floors? It seems I think they're lower than most, but I'll still probably have Moss #4 on my WR rankings and Brady #2 come August unless news dictates otherwise.

 

[rzrback77]

I just am not a believer in Randy Moss for 09 at his ADP of WR4. I think that folks expect a repeat of 07 and to me that is not an accurate expectation. I think that is due to more than Brady returning from injury, but that does play a role. I think that the Patriots passed way more in 07 because they needed to and others could not stop them. I think that the defenses have had time to adjust and that the Patriots always seem to surprise folks. I just expect them to rely on the run more than the pass in 09.A quick look at Brady's attempts over the years01 15 gms 413 pass attempts 6.9 ypa 18 TDs02 16 gms 601 pass attempts 6.3 ypa 28 TDs 03 16 gms 527 pass attempts 6.9 ypa 23 TDs04 16 gms 474 pass attempts 7.8 ypa 28 TDs05 16 gms 530 pass attempts 7.8 ypa 26 TDs06 16 gms 516 pass attempts 6.8 ypa 24 TDs07 16 gms 578 pass attempts 8.3 ypa 50 TDs08 Cassel 16 gms 516 pass atts 7.2 ypa 21 TDsI just see to much jump from the mean in 07. Not that it isn't possible, but it sure seems unlikely. Much more likely for 30 or less TDs. Much more likely for 530 attempts than 580. Much more likely for 7.3 ypa than 8.3. I think that he is dangerous and should have top ten WR ranking at season's end, but I expect more volatility with Moss due to less targets and catches than other top five candidate WRs like Fitzgerald, CJ, and AJ. Still s solid year. Randy Moss 75 catches 1125 yards 15.0 ypc and 13 TDs

I will end up having more to say down stream as I am actually writing the Moss Player Spotlight, but IMO listing off all the stats when the offense had a completley different cast of characters seems like the wrong thing to do.Are we to really expect the Patriots to have the same results with Randy Moss, Wes Welker, et al compare to a team that started Reche Caldwell and a mid 30s Troy Brown? Should we really consider last year when Matt Cassel literally got on the job experience?The Patriots are going to utilize their best weapons . . . and Moss is their best offensive weapon. I doubt he will see 20+ TD again, but everything else should be pretty close to 2007 IMO. In fact, this year I think the Pats will have more offensive yardage overall than in 2007 . . . but they will have a harder time getting into the end zone.

I agree that the other years Brady did not have the weapons that he has now. I do believe that the RBs currently on the roster are much more capable than what they had in 07 down the stretch when the focus shifted away from the running game. I just expect that the Patriots will attack where opponents are not looking. I have a lot of respect for Belichek and his staff's game planning.My projections were not that low for Moss. I belive that he would likely be top ten with my projections.

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

I will end up having more to say down stream as I am actually writing the Moss Player Spotlight, but IMO listing off all the stats when the offense had a completley different cast of characters seems like the wrong thing to do.Are we to really expect the Patriots to have the same results with Randy Moss, Wes Welker, et al compare to a team that started Reche Caldwell and a mid 30s Troy Brown? Should we really consider last year when Matt Cassel literally got on the job experience?The Patriots are going to utilize their best weapons . . . and Moss is their best offensive weapon. I doubt he will see 20+ TD again, but everything else should be pretty close to 2007 IMO. In fact, this year I think the Pats will have more offensive yardage overall than in 2007 . . . but they will have a harder time getting into the end zone.

Weren't you the one claiming they wouldn't touch their 2007 season because it was a fluke?

 

[David Yudkin]

I will end up having more to say down stream as I am actually writing the Moss Player Spotlight, but IMO listing off all the stats when the offense had a completley different cast of characters seems like the wrong thing to do.Are we to really expect the Patriots to have the same results with Randy Moss, Wes Welker, et al compare to a team that started Reche Caldwell and a mid 30s Troy Brown? Should we really consider last year when Matt Cassel literally got on the job experience?The Patriots are going to utilize their best weapons . . . and Moss is their best offensive weapon. I doubt he will see 20+ TD again, but everything else should be pretty close to 2007 IMO. In fact, this year I think the Pats will have more offensive yardage overall than in 2007 . . . but they will have a harder time getting into the end zone.

Weren't you the one claiming they wouldn't touch their 2007 season because it was a fluke?

I said they wouldn't SCORE as much as they did. Yardage wise I think they will be similar to 07.

 

[Adebisi]

I will end up having more to say down stream as I am actually writing the Moss Player Spotlight, but IMO listing off all the stats when the offense had a completley different cast of characters seems like the wrong thing to do.Are we to really expect the Patriots to have the same results with Randy Moss, Wes Welker, et al compare to a team that started Reche Caldwell and a mid 30s Troy Brown? Should we really consider last year when Matt Cassel literally got on the job experience?The Patriots are going to utilize their best weapons . . . and Moss is their best offensive weapon. I doubt he will see 20+ TD again, but everything else should be pretty close to 2007 IMO. In fact, this year I think the Pats will have more offensive yardage overall than in 2007 . . . but they will have a harder time getting into the end zone.

Weren't you the one claiming they wouldn't touch their 2007 season because it was a fluke?

I said they wouldn't SCORE as much as they did. Yardage wise I think they will be similar to 07.

Any particular reason for lower scoring despite similar yardage totals? Did the '07 team have great average starting field position or something?