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Player Spotlight: Reggie Wayne (1 Viewer)

Jason Wood

Zoo York
2009 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. Last year, we published more than 120 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters. This year will be no different.

Each week we will post a list of players to be discussed. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discussion expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Reggie Wayne, WR, Indianapolis Colts

Player Page Link: Reggie Wayne Player Page

Each article will include:

Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads
FBG Projections
Consensus Member ProjectionsThe Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

Focus commentary on the player in question, and your expectations for said player
Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
To be included in the final synopsis and consensus outlook, you MUST provide projections for the playerProjections should include (at a minimum):

For QBs: Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDsNow let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

 
Undisputed #1 which can be good and bad. His success depends on Gonzales on the other side. While Wayne is very good, he will get exclusive double coverage this year.

He will get tons of looks regardless, but I feel I need to temper my expectations somewhat.

102/ 1325/ 10 TDs

 
I'm not sure where Wayne will be going in drafts, but he appears to be a pretty nice value play in 2009.

His numbers were a tad underwhelming last year based on what people had come to expect - 82/1145/6. These are numbers more in the Donald Driver production range rather than Peyton Manning's #1 WR. However, I don't think the Colts offense ever truly got on track last year. Consider:

1) Manning has the bursa sac issue that comes up around this time and pretty much wipes out his run-up to the season preparation not to mention training camp.

2) The offense is working a past his prime Marvin Harrison back into the mix who after taking a way his 2 67 yard receptions averaged 8.7 YPC in 2008.

3) The run game simply never gets untracked with Addai being hurt, not to mention Manning's inability to run their 'stretch' play or play action most of the season due to his knee.

This led to the Colts lowest point total since 2002 - 377; or 86 points below their 5 season average. Also notable is that Manning's YPA was at it's lowest since that season as well.

To me, some stats that really stand out as it relates to Wayne's production in 2008:

1) He caught 2 TD passes in the Colts final 11 games. Manning threw 19 during this stretch.

2) From Week 7 to Week 14 (8 weeks), Wayne accumulated 450 yards & 1 TD; 23.4% of Manning's yardage production. #1 WR's are generally in the 35%-40% range....at least good ones.

While there were whispers that Wayne wasn't 100% physically, who is to really know. It'll be interesting to see if most view Wayne's 2008 as a blip on the radar screen or a foreshadowing of things to come. I think ultimately, the Colts were dealing with a WR who no longer could consistently work all parts of the field which allowed teams to roll their coverage to other weapons. Wayne had his best season after Harrison went down in 2007, but the Colts were prepared with Gonzalez and Clark. That and Manning is a master of diversifying the Colts attack. But you wonder how much the 3 factors above weighed on this offense.

Now under completely new leadership and without off-season mishaps, I think you'll see Wayne rebound...although not to 2007 levels.

Prediction: 94 receptions 1359 yards, 9 TD's.

 
I think people are really sleeping on Wayne, at least as much as you can sleep on a guy who has been to 3 straight Pro Bowls.

With Harrison gone, Wayne will be moving to his old spot which means more targets and specifically more targets on deep routes and in the red zone. Wayne played at this spot in 07' and did in 2 games last year. In those 2 games last year(weeks 15-16) Wayne put up 7-104 and 7-108-1 against Houston and Jacksonville. Looking deeper, Manning seemed to force the ball to Harrison last year(often at the expense of the team) almost like he(or the coaching staff) were too stubborn to admit that Marvin wasn't the same player he was in the past.

Wayne had 130 targets last season, with Marvin gone and with Wayne switching sides, I expect that number to be about 150+.

I think Reggie Wayne is going to have a huge year that is equal or greater than what he did in 2007. 2007 wasn't as simple as Marvin was hurt so Wayne got more targets, he played a somewhat different role in the routes he ran and that is something I think you'll see again this year.

I also think Manning being healthy will make a world of difference in the offense in general and I think Manning may be the #1 QB this year.

My Prediction: 95 catches 1,400 yards and 13 TD's. Vintage Colts #1 WR numbers, and top-3 WR numbers.

 
Wayne will be the number one WR for a potentially very potent offense. He has shown the ability in the past of having a monster season, but other than that 2007 season, his numbers have been more in line of his 5 year average (86-1246-8). The team seems to be regressing a bit and I see Wayne closer to his 5 year average than a monster season.

90 - 1275 - 9

 
Wayne reminds me of T. Holt of a few years ago, great passing offense, good wr, doesn't seem to have any real weaknesses, stays healthy and very consistent. What's not to like...the #1 wr in his prime a great passing offense with one of the best QB's throwing him the ball. IMO he's probably the safest wr pick in the draft...he never misses time (he hasn't missed a game in 7 seasons), his QB never misses time (going to give Favre a run and hasn't missed a game in 11 seasons) and he probably has the highest floor of any wr. He's an easy one and like Holt predicting him is boring...90-1350-10 but it wouldn't shock me if he did a good bit more...

 
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I had him rated number one last season and I have him rated number one now. He's a great player on a potent offense with many players right in the thick of their primes.

85/1300/9

Banger nailed it above. Very little to not like about Wayne.

 
Some high expectations for Wayne in this thread. Perhaps too high. How will the Colts offensive coaching changes affect his numbers? Can the running game rebound from a dismal season last year? Those are only a couple of question marks for this team.

It seems like people are assuming that since Marvin Harrison isn't around any more that all of a sudden Reggie Wayne becomes Harrison. I'm not sure it's that simple. Harrison is one of the greatest wide receivers in NFL history. Wayne's a good player but he's not one of the greats.

 
Some high expectations for Wayne in this thread. Perhaps too high. How will the Colts offensive coaching changes affect his numbers? Can the running game rebound from a dismal season last year? Those are only a couple of question marks for this team.It seems like people are assuming that since Marvin Harrison isn't around any more that all of a sudden Reggie Wayne becomes Harrison. I'm not sure it's that simple. Harrison is one of the greatest wide receivers in NFL history. Wayne's a good player but he's not one of the greats.
No Harrison means more targets and deep routes for Wayne. Maybe thats what has people drooling.. I like his chances to finish in the top 5 WRs, as much as pretty much everyone else.
 
Some high expectations for Wayne in this thread. Perhaps too high. How will the Colts offensive coaching changes affect his numbers? Can the running game rebound from a dismal season last year? Those are only a couple of question marks for this team.It seems like people are assuming that since Marvin Harrison isn't around any more that all of a sudden Reggie Wayne becomes Harrison. I'm not sure it's that simple. Harrison is one of the greatest wide receivers in NFL history. Wayne's a good player but he's not one of the greats.
When you have Peyton Manning throwing to you as his #1 target, you have HOF potential. Harrison was great, but was there because of Manning.Wayne will be a HOFer if he plays several more years with Manning!
 
Wayne reminds me of T. Holt of a few years ago, great passing offense, good wr, doesn't seem to have any real weaknesses, stays healthy and very consistent. What's not to like...the #1 wr in his prime a great passing offense with one of the best QB's throwing him the ball. IMO he's probably the safest wr pick in the draft...he never misses time (he hasn't missed a game in 7 seasons), his QB never misses time (going to give Favre a run and hasn't missed a game in 11 seasons) and he probably has the highest floor of any wr. He's an easy one and like Holt predicting him is boring...90-1350-10 but it wouldn't shock me if he did a good bit more...
I concur and I like the comparison to Holt
 
Seems that many of the top WRs have some question marks attached to them

Boldin - contract issue

Roddy White - 1 year wonder? Gonzo taking away looks

S Smith - serious Qb issues

R Moss - you just never know with him and Brady's health

TO - unproven QB in cold weather city

Calvin - awful team and QB - rookie QB

Braylon - stinks

So while Wayne has some concerns with the new offense and losing Marvin- I see the upside of the more targets with a healthier Peyton more than making up for it. Every time I go for the safe pick I get burned - S Jax last year - but this is my safe WR pick. Should be a complete lock for top 10 - probably top 5.

94recs 1,350yds 11TDs

 
So while Wayne has some concerns with the new offense and losing Marvin- I see the upside of the more targets with a healthier Peyton more than making up for it. Every time I go for the safe pick I get burned - S Jax last year - but this is my safe WR pick. Should be a complete lock for top 10 - probably top 5.

94recs 1,350yds 11TDs
:) Nothing safe about SJax, he's high risk/reward.

 
I selected Wayne with the 1.10 Pick in SSL2, with Fitzgerald and AJohnson, along with 7 RB off the board, with no hesitation.

It's my opinion that the Colts Offense is going to be an absolute juggernaut this year.

First, Manning is healthy. Second, the loss of Harrison isn't tragic - when he was playing, he was already in decline, and the development of Dallas Clark, and acquisition of Anthony Gonzalez actually allowed them to 'shift on the fly' and have a game plan in place going into this year without Harrison. Addai is an average runner, but defenses are going to be forced to respect a tandem of him and Donald Brown. Finally, say what you will about Hakeem Nicks, Brian Robiskie and Michael Crabtree - I, for one, think the Colts got the steal of the Draft in Austin Collie, and he will make an immediate impact as well.

The beneficiary of all of this will be the Manning-to-Wayne connection. Two savvy vets who know each other inside-out, one of which will now have the least amount of coverage shifted his way in a few years. That's all an elite QB/WR Combo needs - an extra half-second, or quarter-inch of separation to statistically explode, and we're going to see it this year in Indy between Manning and Wayne.

He's the safest play among the elites at the WR Position as well - considering the much more severe injury concerns surrounding Brady, Warner, Delhomme and Schaub, and when you take into account the backups - if Sorgi were forced to start, there would certainly be a dropoff, but not as precipitous as if O'Connell, Leinart, McCown or Orlovsky took over their Teams. Wayne will get his regardless, again, largely due to the complimentary options around him, who serve not to take targets away, but rather to give him more time and space to be the go-to guy in what should be the League's most prolific Offense.

96 Receptions / 1360 Yards / 14 TD's

 
In 14 games over his career where Wayne played but Harrison didn't, Wayne compile a total of 92-1342-8 (stemming mostly from the 2007 when Harrison was hurt).

At the same rate of production over 16 games, that would equal 105-1534-9.

 
In 14 games over his career where Wayne played but Harrison didn't, Wayne compile a total of 92-1342-8 (stemming mostly from the 2007 when Harrison was hurt).

At the same rate of production over 16 games, that would equal 105-1534-9.
That bears a quite resemblance to Wayne's 2007 season. Which would have been good for WR #2 last year. Even the 14 game sample size would have been top-5 last year.
 
Some high expectations for Wayne in this thread. Perhaps too high. How will the Colts offensive coaching changes affect his numbers? Can the running game rebound from a dismal season last year? Those are only a couple of question marks for this team.It seems like people are assuming that since Marvin Harrison isn't around any more that all of a sudden Reggie Wayne becomes Harrison. I'm not sure it's that simple. Harrison is one of the greatest wide receivers in NFL history. Wayne's a good player but he's not one of the greats.
;) I can see why people are looking at this situation on the surface and assuming big things for Wayne, but I don't think it's quite that simple. The offensive changes shouldn't be underestimated. I'm sure Manning will get his numbers, but I don't know how successful Wayne will be if Gonzalez doesn't step it up and he doesn't have a successful running game to keep defenses honest. He's very talented, but not at the level of a Moss, Owens, or Fitz where he can just be fed the ball and make things happen on his own. His success is more tied to other factors, and if those things don't line up, he could disappoint. Looking at his 2008 game log, he really didn't have any huge games and had at least 5 very quiet ones. He did break that one huge play in the playoff loss to the Chargers, but that had everything to do with the defense falling asleep. Beyond that, he was virtually not heard from.I don't think he'll be a bust by any stretch, but I don't see him being an elite WR.My prediction:16 games, 82 receptions, 1148 yards, 7 td's
 
Reggie Wayne has been the model of consistency at the WR position for the past several years. A quick review of key stats:

02 16 gms 70 targets 49 catches 70.0% 716 yds 14.6 ypa 4 TDs WR50

03 16 gms 105 targets 68 catches 64.8% 838 yds 12.3 ypa 7 TDs WR20

04 16 gms 113 targets 77 catches 68.1% 1210 yds 15.7 ypa 12 TDs WR8

05 16 gms 122 targets 83 catches 68.0% 1055 yds 12.7 ypa 5 TDs WR21

06 16 gms 137 targets 86 catches 62.8% 1310 yds 15.2 ypa 9 TDs WR3

07 16 gms 156 targets 104 catches 66.7% 1510 yds 14.5 ypa 10 TDs WR4

08 16 gms 131 targets 82 catches 62.6% 1145 yds 14.0 ypa 6 TDs WR14

Consistency is revealed in those stats. He has missed the same number of games as Peyton Manning over those seven years, none. He has caught between 62% and 70% of the passes thrown to him. His ypc varied only between 12 and 16 yards. His TDs jumped around and seem a little lower than expected, but still he has had three top ten seasons and three more between WR14 and WR28.

All of his stats slipped in 08 as the Colts offense struggled with injuries to Manning, the O-Line and Addai. I see no reason to not expect his stats to climb back some in 09 with Harrison gone. However, his current ADP is WR5 and 20 overall so you will have to take him early to get him.

Reggie Wayne 140 targets 90 catches 1260 yards and 8 TDs

 
Over the last 5 years, since he really broke onto the scene, Wayne has averaged:

86.4 Receptions

1246 Yards

8.4 Touchdowns

Doing it so consistently, people forget how overlook how remarkable these stats are. He may not get you the 16 TDs of a Braylon Edwards, but he also doesn't do the disappearing act that Edwards followed it up with.

He's a high character guy. He's not going to be arrested or suspended, he's extremely high reward, extremely low risk.

You know what you're getting the Colts passing game. Peyton Manning is a mortal lock for 4000+ Yards and 26+ TDs. Wayne has become his go to guy, and the stats will continue to reflect that. The running game has been where the real questions have been, and will continue to be going into this season. Joseph Addai will enter this season healthy, and almost has to be better than he was last season. They also brought in Donald Brown to help out. All thing considered, the Colts offense might not be considerably better this year than it was last, but there's no reason to be down on it either.

88 Receptions

1250 Yards

9 TDs

 

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