Player Spotlight: Ronnie Brown (1 Viewer)

[Jason Wood]

2008 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. Last year, we published more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters. This year will be no different.

Each week we will post a list of players to be discussed. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discussion expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Ronnie Brown, RB, Miami Dolphins

Player Page Link: Ronnie Brown Player Page

Each article will include:

Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads
FBG Projections
Consensus Member ProjectionsThe Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

Focus commentary on the player in question, and your expectations for said player
Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
To be included in the final synopsis and consensus outlook, you MUST provide projections for the playerProjections should include (at a minimum):

For QBs: Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDsNow let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

 

[DenverBroncos]

Will finish in top 8 but you can get him around RB 14-18.

 

[Anonymous Internet User]

I think there will be a full-on RBBC in Miami this year with Ronnie and Ricky. There's no way the coaches can lean on their QBs (McCown? Beck??) and WRs (Ginn and Wilford??) for yardage. I expect both to get around 250 carries, and both to average around 3.8 YPC, with 10 rushing TDs split between them.

250 carries, 950 yards, 6 TDs for Ronnie

 

[TheFanatic]

Will finish in top 8 but you can get him around RB 14-18.

So, do you expect a guy that blew out his knee week 7 last year to play all 16 games to make top 8, or do you expect him to be an absolute monster from say week 6 till the end of the season to reach top 8?

 

[T Bell]

I think they're going to put as much of the running burden as possible on Ricky this, what is clearly a rebuilding year, to get their money's worth out of Ricky and to enable Brown to ease back into the lineup from his injury. Brown's the future there, but they don't need to rush him back. I'd love for him to do more for my dynasty team, but he's a RB2 this year, and may be a frustrating one whose output is tough to predict week to week.

220/885/7

30/270/1

 

[Kitrick Taylor]

Will finish in top 8 but you can get him around RB 14-18.

So, do you expect a guy that blew out his knee week 7 last year to play all 16 games to make top 8, or do you expect him to be an absolute monster from say week 6 till the end of the season to reach top 8?

The average amount of points scored by the number 8 RB over the past three years is 12.8ppg. (typical scoring 1pt/10 yards 6pts/TD).May be a little too much to ask of Ronnie Brown with Ricky in the picture, and coming off an ACL injury. The #12 RB has averaged 11ppg, and the #16 RB 10.4ppg. Somewhere in there IMO. 245 carries, 1078 yards. 35 receptions, 275 yards, 7 Total TDs.

 

[TheFanatic]

I think they're going to put as much of the running burden as possible on Ricky this, what is clearly a rebuilding year, to get their money's worth out of Ricky and to enable Brown to ease back into the lineup from his injury. Brown's the future there, but they don't need to rush him back. I'd love for him to do more for my dynasty team, but he's a RB2 this year, and may be a frustrating one whose output is tough to predict week to week.220/885/7 30/270/1

I would also like to add that he very well may be 100% and shouldering most of the load towards the end of the season and may be a very nice buy low candidate in the early weeks of the season. He could be the guy that carries a team in the playoffs but sucks for the first 8 weeks....

 

[The Man with the Plan]

If he returns to form from the knee injury it probably won't be this season. Add the coaching change along with Ricky Williams and I'm not really going out of my way to draft Ronnie Brown this season.

 

[Bears_Man2]

Agree along the lines of the above projections for this year. If Ricky's on the team week 1, I project he'll end up with the most carries for NFL backup RB's.

220 925 6 TD

30 210 1 TD

 

[twr]

Will finish in top 8 but you can get him around RB 14-18.

So, do you expect a guy that blew out his knee week 7 last year to play all 16 games to make top 8, or do you expect him to be an absolute monster from say week 6 till the end of the season to reach top 8?

if i was a bettin man id say he becomes a monster around week 6-8 and helps people win playoffs this season.

 

[Iwannabeacowboybaby!]

Ronnie Brown:

I didn't like Ronnie Brown coming out of Auburn compared to his hype and haven't been a Ronnie Brown supporter yet. It has paid off for me because overall, there isn't a year where he's lived up to his potential.

With that said, Brown still has another big shot to make a splash. He's the starting RB for a Bill Parcells type club and he has the chance to have the kind of year everyone has been waiting for. It won't be for me, his ADP is way too high but I can understand the theory behind where people are coming from, especially in PPR leagues. The amount of receptions he's caught in the short amount of games is impressive and with the QB situation in Miami, he should get a lot of dump offs yet again this season.

800 yards rushing with 5 td's, 50 receptions for 499 yards and 2 td's

 

[Portis 26]

Most players take a couple of years to come back from ACLs, both Edge and Jamal Lewis looked very pedestrian their first year back.

 

[munchkin]

Ronnie Brown:

I didn't like Ronnie Brown coming out of Auburn compared to his hype and haven't been a Ronnie Brown supporter yet. It has paid off for me because overall, there isn't a year where he's lived up to his potential.

With that said, Brown still has another big shot to make a splash. He's the starting RB for a Bill Parcells type club and he has the chance to have the kind of year everyone has been waiting for. It won't be for me, his ADP is way too high but I can understand the theory behind where people are coming from, especially in PPR leagues. The amount of receptions he's caught in the short amount of games is impressive and with the QB situation in Miami, he should get a lot of dump offs yet again this season.

800 yards rushing with 5 td's, 50 receptions for 499 yards and 2 td's

It's hard to argue with this point. I drafted R Brown with the first pick in my initial rookie/FA dynasty draft. Up until the beginning of last year he was a major disappointment. However, if you compare his three year performance to that of Frank Gore he measures up pretty well. His average yards per carry over three years 4.4, 4.2 and 5.1 with yards per catch at 7.3, 8.4 and 10.1 while Gore's corresponding stats were 4.8, 5.4 and 4.2 along with 8.7, 8.0 and 8.2. Of course Gore, who has fought some nagging injuries himself, has proven to be more durable despite some health questions coming out of college.All signs point to Ricky getting early carries which hopefully will allow Brown to work his way back into the line-up and prevent further damage to his knee as he recovers. I am sure there are a lot of dynasty owners with their fingers crossed as they look into the future.

225 carries 980 yards 45 receptions 425 yards 7 total TD's

 

[rzrback77]

Abstain from a springtime prediction as I just don't know:

1) If he'll be back in gmae one

2) If he'll be effective

3) If he will start or share carries with the Raster

 

[TheFanatic]

Ronnie Brown:

I didn't like Ronnie Brown coming out of Auburn compared to his hype and haven't been a Ronnie Brown supporter yet. It has paid off for me because overall, there isn't a year where he's lived up to his potential.

With that said, Brown still has another big shot to make a splash. He's the starting RB for a Bill Parcells type club and he has the chance to have the kind of year everyone has been waiting for. It won't be for me, his ADP is way too high but I can understand the theory behind where people are coming from, especially in PPR leagues. The amount of receptions he's caught in the short amount of games is impressive and with the QB situation in Miami, he should get a lot of dump offs yet again this season.

800 yards rushing with 5 td's, 50 receptions for 499 yards and 2 td's

It's hard to argue with this point. I drafted R Brown with the first pick in my initial rookie/FA dynasty draft. Up until the beginning of last year he was a major disappointment. However, if you compare his three year performance to that of Frank Gore he measures up pretty well. His average yards per carry over three years 4.4, 4.2 and 5.1 with yards per catch at 7.3, 8.4 and 10.1 while Gore's corresponding stats were 4.8, 5.4 and 4.2 along with 8.7, 8.0 and 8.2. Of course Gore, who has fought some nagging injuries himself, has proven to be more durable despite some health questions coming out of college.All signs point to Ricky getting early carries which hopefully will allow Brown to work his way back into the line-up and prevent further damage to his knee as he recovers. I am sure there are a lot of dynasty owners with their fingers crossed as they look into the future.

225 carries 980 yards 45 receptions 425 yards 7 total TD's

I don't get points in my leagues for YPC or YPR. These stats are pretty meaningless. Brown went in the top 3 his rookie season. Gore wasn't drafted in a lot of leagues till his second season.

In a startup dynasty league Gore's 2nd season I drafted Gore in the 6th round and was laughed at for it. Gore has returned MUCH more bang for the buck than Brown.

 

[Dexter Manley]

Most players take a couple of years to come back from ACLs, both Edge and Jamal Lewis looked very pedestrian their first year back.

I make it a habit to not draft a rb the first year coming back from a major knee injury. Only way I consider taking Ronnie is if he falls to the middle rounds, which is highly improbable. I'll let some other gambling degenerate owner take him in the first few rounds.At this point I think it's basically impossible to predict how Brown will perform for several reasons:-- He's coming off major knee surgery during the middle of last season-- Cam Cameron is gone and he is now in a new offense, with new coaches-- The oline should be improved-- Ricky Williams has impressed the new coaches and should carry a significant % of the load at least early onHas he even been working out yet, running and cutting at full speed? I have no idea.

 

[munchkin]

Ronnie Brown:

I didn't like Ronnie Brown coming out of Auburn compared to his hype and haven't been a Ronnie Brown supporter yet. It has paid off for me because overall, there isn't a year where he's lived up to his potential.

With that said, Brown still has another big shot to make a splash. He's the starting RB for a Bill Parcells type club and he has the chance to have the kind of year everyone has been waiting for. It won't be for me, his ADP is way too high but I can understand the theory behind where people are coming from, especially in PPR leagues. The amount of receptions he's caught in the short amount of games is impressive and with the QB situation in Miami, he should get a lot of dump offs yet again this season.

800 yards rushing with 5 td's, 50 receptions for 499 yards and 2 td's

It's hard to argue with this point. I drafted R Brown with the first pick in my initial rookie/FA dynasty draft. Up until the beginning of last year he was a major disappointment. However, if you compare his three year performance to that of Frank Gore he measures up pretty well. His average yards per carry over three years 4.4, 4.2 and 5.1 with yards per catch at 7.3, 8.4 and 10.1 while Gore's corresponding stats were 4.8, 5.4 and 4.2 along with 8.7, 8.0 and 8.2. Of course Gore, who has fought some nagging injuries himself, has proven to be more durable despite some health questions coming out of college.All signs point to Ricky getting early carries which hopefully will allow Brown to work his way back into the line-up and prevent further damage to his knee as he recovers. I am sure there are a lot of dynasty owners with their fingers crossed as they look into the future.

225 carries 980 yards 45 receptions 425 yards 7 total TD's

I don't get points in my leagues for YPC or YPR. These stats are pretty meaningless. Brown went in the top 3 his rookie season. Gore wasn't drafted in a lot of leagues till his second season.

In a startup dynasty league Gore's 2nd season I drafted Gore in the 6th round and was laughed at for it. Gore has returned MUCH more bang for the buck than Brown.

You should read the post for what it is not what you want it to be. I didn't say Brown has proven as much as Gore. The stats show, whether you like them or not, that he has the potential to put up numbers comparable to Gore if he can stay healthy. Gore was drafted in our league at the end of the first round in season one. No doubt that owner has been rewarded with more bang for the buck than I have.

What was the point of your post? Why did you draft Gore in his second season if you weren't impressed with his YPC and YPC? While these stats certainly don't measure everything they can be a pretty good gauge as to whether someone has talent.

 

[Jon_Moore]

Terrible weapons all around him mean Brown should see the ball plenty, though there's talk the Dolphins will split Carries with he and Williams. This plus coming off the ACL injury will keep Brown from being the uber-stud he's capable of. He was on pace to be RB1 before the injury. He caught a ton of balls and that should continue as he'll be a stud in PPR.

236 Rushes

1014 Yards

5 Tds

38 Receptions

269 Receiving Yards

1 Receiving Td

In 2009, he's going to be SICK.

 

[isiahcleaves]

http://www.miamiherald.com/616/story/590340.html

I'm not sure what this article does (if anything) to the current value of Brown. He says he'll be 100% by the start of training camp, but a bunch of NFL veterans are warning against him going too hard.

As far as a prediction for Brown goes... I think many are being overly cautious with their estimates. He's a boom or bust pick... no doubt about it in my mind... but he's also the type of guy that can win your league for you. I'll gladly take a gamble on him as a RB2 if he's available.

My conservative estimates based on Ricky friggin Williams being his only competition.

260 attempts for 1150 yards (4.4 avg)

55 catches for 450 yards (8.2 avg)

10 total TD's

I'd say those #'s qualify him for around RB 12.

 

[David Yudkin]

This article says RB production drops off by a third post ACL injury (written by a sports medicine organization).

Data were analyzed for 31 players with 33 ACL injuries. Of the injured players, 21 percent (7 of 33 ACL injuries) never returned to play in another regular season NFL game. Of the 79 percent that did return, most players returned to action 9 to 12 months after an ACL injury.

For those players who returned to NFL action following an ACL injury, performance fell by one-third, the researchers found. Power rating per game played decreased from 9.9 pre-injury to 6.5 post-injury. This decline in player production was statistically significant when compared to the 146 players in the control group.

Knee pain, stiffness, loss of strength, deconditioning and reduced proprioception (the sense of knowing where your leg is) may be factors explaining the loss of production in players after an ACL injury, the authors theorize. Further, ACL reconstruction does not perfectly recreate the complex anatomy and composition of a person's ACL before injury.

I'm sure every case is different, and I'm sure every RB says he will be 100% ready to go way earlier than he actually is.If we literally dropped his per game production by 33%, that would leave him with 57.6 rushing yards, 27.3 receiving yards, and 0.48 TD per game.

If he played 14 games, that would give him 806 rushing yards, 382 receiving yards, and 8 TD. That would be about 166 fantasy points which last year would have ranked 15th.

 

[TheFanatic]

Ronnie Brown:

I didn't like Ronnie Brown coming out of Auburn compared to his hype and haven't been a Ronnie Brown supporter yet. It has paid off for me because overall, there isn't a year where he's lived up to his potential.

With that said, Brown still has another big shot to make a splash. He's the starting RB for a Bill Parcells type club and he has the chance to have the kind of year everyone has been waiting for. It won't be for me, his ADP is way too high but I can understand the theory behind where people are coming from, especially in PPR leagues. The amount of receptions he's caught in the short amount of games is impressive and with the QB situation in Miami, he should get a lot of dump offs yet again this season.

800 yards rushing with 5 td's, 50 receptions for 499 yards and 2 td's

It's hard to argue with this point. I drafted R Brown with the first pick in my initial rookie/FA dynasty draft. Up until the beginning of last year he was a major disappointment. However, if you compare his three year performance to that of Frank Gore he measures up pretty well. His average yards per carry over three years 4.4, 4.2 and 5.1 with yards per catch at 7.3, 8.4 and 10.1 while Gore's corresponding stats were 4.8, 5.4 and 4.2 along with 8.7, 8.0 and 8.2. Of course Gore, who has fought some nagging injuries himself, has proven to be more durable despite some health questions coming out of college.All signs point to Ricky getting early carries which hopefully will allow Brown to work his way back into the line-up and prevent further damage to his knee as he recovers. I am sure there are a lot of dynasty owners with their fingers crossed as they look into the future.

225 carries 980 yards 45 receptions 425 yards 7 total TD's

I don't get points in my leagues for YPC or YPR. These stats are pretty meaningless. Brown went in the top 3 his rookie season. Gore wasn't drafted in a lot of leagues till his second season.

In a startup dynasty league Gore's 2nd season I drafted Gore in the 6th round and was laughed at for it. Gore has returned MUCH more bang for the buck than Brown.

You should read the post for what it is not what you want it to be. I didn't say Brown has proven as much as Gore. The stats show, whether you like them or not, that he has the potential to put up numbers comparable to Gore if he can stay healthy. Gore was drafted in our league at the end of the first round in season one. No doubt that owner has been rewarded with more bang for the buck than I have.

What was the point of your post? Why did you draft Gore in his second season if you weren't impressed with his YPC and YPC? While these stats certainly don't measure everything they can be a pretty good gauge as to whether someone has talent.

I did reread the post. You compare him to Gore. You paid MUCH more for Brown that Gore and have gotten very little in return. You state that they have comparable numbers:

However, if you compare his three year performance to that of Frank Gore he measures up pretty well. His average yards per carry over three years 4.4, 4.2 and 5.1 with yards per catch at 7.3, 8.4 and 10.1 while Gore's corresponding stats were 4.8, 5.4 and 4.2 along with 8.7, 8.0 and 8.2.

These stats you post are meaningless. No league is awarding you jack for these. You say they are indicative of someone being a good football player. A good NFL player isn't necessarily a good FFB player. So what if the YPC and YPR are similar? Ronnie Brown finished 23rd overall at RB 3 years ago, 24th 2 years ago and 25th last year. Gore had two top 10 finishes the last 2 years (I'm using non PPR stats here). You accuse me of makign your post into something I want it to be. As if I'm being selective in my response. But who is being selective here? You make it seem like these two guys are comparable but in FFB terms they are not even close. Brown came with a huge price tag and 3 finishes in the 20's. Gore was a steal and two top 10 finishes. Since we are on a FFB board you stats are selective and downright misleading. So what if he has a good YPC if he can't keep it together for 16 games. So what if he has a good YPR if he can't string together enough solid outings to get into at least RB2 range.

So, Gore = Cheap and Productive. Brown = Expensive and Little Production. Yet you make it seem like the two are similar with your selective choice of stats and that so far from the true picture that it's comical.

I think the question of whether Caddy or Brown could carry the load for an NFL team after splitting time in college seems to be no for both.

 

[Tanner9919]

I know Parcells isn't coaching the Dolphins, but you can bet he'll drop hints that he wants to see RBBC...he used it extensively in Dallas, and not by coincidence, a few guys in his organization are former Dallas coaches/execs.

I'm sure they'll rely heavily on the running game thats the good news, but not till 2009 will Ron Brown become a one-man show in that backfield..at least for this season, its going to be RBBC

 

[ATC1]

This article says RB production drops off by a third post ACL injury (written by a sports medicine organization).

Data were analyzed for 31 players with 33 ACL injuries. Of the injured players, 21 percent (7 of 33 ACL injuries) never returned to play in another regular season NFL game. Of the 79 percent that did return, most players returned to action 9 to 12 months after an ACL injury.

For those players who returned to NFL action following an ACL injury, performance fell by one-third, the researchers found. Power rating per game played decreased from 9.9 pre-injury to 6.5 post-injury. This decline in player production was statistically significant when compared to the 146 players in the control group.

Knee pain, stiffness, loss of strength, deconditioning and reduced proprioception (the sense of knowing where your leg is) may be factors explaining the loss of production in players after an ACL injury, the authors theorize. Further, ACL reconstruction does not perfectly recreate the complex anatomy and composition of a person's ACL before injury.

I'm sure every case is different, and I'm sure every RB says he will be 100% ready to go way earlier than he actually is.If we literally dropped his per game production by 33%, that would leave him with 57.6 rushing yards, 27.3 receiving yards, and 0.48 TD per game.

If he played 14 games, that would give him 806 rushing yards, 382 receiving yards, and 8 TD. That would be about 166 fantasy points which last year would have ranked 15th.

This is what I don't get. I'll take #15 RB in the 3rd round after grabbing a stud WR in the 2nd.

People are saying he is a risk to not perform at his best. Well he doesn't need to if owners are taking him in the 3rd round. If he didn't get hurt last year and continued to put up the same numbers we would be saying who to take Brown, LT or ADP at #1.

He is someone that put should put up great numbers if healthy, and should be 100% by the time playoffs come around. ACL injuries have low risk of reinjury losing more time after the reconstruction. It's the process of getting to 100%.

 

[munchkin]

Ronnie Brown:

I didn't like Ronnie Brown coming out of Auburn compared to his hype and haven't been a Ronnie Brown supporter yet. It has paid off for me because overall, there isn't a year where he's lived up to his potential.

With that said, Brown still has another big shot to make a splash. He's the starting RB for a Bill Parcells type club and he has the chance to have the kind of year everyone has been waiting for. It won't be for me, his ADP is way too high but I can understand the theory behind where people are coming from, especially in PPR leagues. The amount of receptions he's caught in the short amount of games is impressive and with the QB situation in Miami, he should get a lot of dump offs yet again this season.

800 yards rushing with 5 td's, 50 receptions for 499 yards and 2 td's

It's hard to argue with this point. I drafted R Brown with the first pick in my initial rookie/FA dynasty draft. Up until the beginning of last year he was a major disappointment. However, if you compare his three year performance to that of Frank Gore he measures up pretty well. His average yards per carry over three years 4.4, 4.2 and 5.1 with yards per catch at 7.3, 8.4 and 10.1 while Gore's corresponding stats were 4.8, 5.4 and 4.2 along with 8.7, 8.0 and 8.2. Of course Gore, who has fought some nagging injuries himself, has proven to be more durable despite some health questions coming out of college.All signs point to Ricky getting early carries which hopefully will allow Brown to work his way back into the line-up and prevent further damage to his knee as he recovers. I am sure there are a lot of dynasty owners with their fingers crossed as they look into the future.

225 carries 980 yards 45 receptions 425 yards 7 total TD's

I don't get points in my leagues for YPC or YPR. These stats are pretty meaningless. Brown went in the top 3 his rookie season. Gore wasn't drafted in a lot of leagues till his second season.

In a startup dynasty league Gore's 2nd season I drafted Gore in the 6th round and was laughed at for it. Gore has returned MUCH more bang for the buck than Brown.

You should read the post for what it is not what you want it to be. I didn't say Brown has proven as much as Gore. The stats show, whether you like them or not, that he has the potential to put up numbers comparable to Gore if he can stay healthy. Gore was drafted in our league at the end of the first round in season one. No doubt that owner has been rewarded with more bang for the buck than I have.

What was the point of your post? Why did you draft Gore in his second season if you weren't impressed with his YPC and YPC? While these stats certainly don't measure everything they can be a pretty good gauge as to whether someone has talent.

I did reread the post. You compare him to Gore. You paid MUCH more for Brown that Gore and have gotten very little in return. You state that they have comparable numbers:

However, if you compare his three year performance to that of Frank Gore he measures up pretty well. His average yards per carry over three years 4.4, 4.2 and 5.1 with yards per catch at 7.3, 8.4 and 10.1 while Gore's corresponding stats were 4.8, 5.4 and 4.2 along with 8.7, 8.0 and 8.2.

These stats you post are meaningless. No league is awarding you jack for these. You say they are indicative of someone being a good football player. A good NFL player isn't necessarily a good FFB player. So what if the YPC and YPR are similar? Ronnie Brown finished 23rd overall at RB 3 years ago, 24th 2 years ago and 25th last year. Gore had two top 10 finishes the last 2 years (I'm using non PPR stats here). You accuse me of makign your post into something I want it to be. As if I'm being selective in my response. But who is being selective here? You make it seem like these two guys are comparable but in FFB terms they are not even close. Brown came with a huge price tag and 3 finishes in the 20's. Gore was a steal and two top 10 finishes. Since we are on a FFB board you stats are selective and downright misleading. So what if he has a good YPC if he can't keep it together for 16 games. So what if he has a good YPR if he can't string together enough solid outings to get into at least RB2 range.

So, Gore = Cheap and Productive. Brown = Expensive and Little Production. Yet you make it seem like the two are similar with your selective choice of stats and that so far from the true picture that it's comical.

I think the question of whether Caddy or Brown could carry the load for an NFL team after splitting time in college seems to be no for both.

There is nothing in my post(s) that declare(s) Brown has had comparable FF results to Gore including my predictions for this year (which puts him well below Gore).I also stated that Brown had been a major disappointment until the beginning of last year.

What I did state was that Brown's production, when healthy, is comparable to Gore's and I stand by that. They both have been playing on pretty offensively inept teams as well. I believe he has the POTENTIAL to be a productive FF player. My posting was an attempt to justify my prediction for Brown's numbers this year which is the theme of this thread. YPC and YPA's are a valid statistical basis from which to draw seasonal conclusions.

If you want to make it about Brown vs. Gore long term than that is your option.

 

[David Yudkin]

This article says RB production drops off by a third post ACL injury (written by a sports medicine organization).

Data were analyzed for 31 players with 33 ACL injuries. Of the injured players, 21 percent (7 of 33 ACL injuries) never returned to play in another regular season NFL game. Of the 79 percent that did return, most players returned to action 9 to 12 months after an ACL injury.

For those players who returned to NFL action following an ACL injury, performance fell by one-third, the researchers found. Power rating per game played decreased from 9.9 pre-injury to 6.5 post-injury. This decline in player production was statistically significant when compared to the 146 players in the control group.

Knee pain, stiffness, loss of strength, deconditioning and reduced proprioception (the sense of knowing where your leg is) may be factors explaining the loss of production in players after an ACL injury, the authors theorize. Further, ACL reconstruction does not perfectly recreate the complex anatomy and composition of a person's ACL before injury.

I'm sure every case is different, and I'm sure every RB says he will be 100% ready to go way earlier than he actually is.If we literally dropped his per game production by 33%, that would leave him with 57.6 rushing yards, 27.3 receiving yards, and 0.48 TD per game.

If he played 14 games, that would give him 806 rushing yards, 382 receiving yards, and 8 TD. That would be about 166 fantasy points which last year would have ranked 15th.

This is what I don't get. I'll take #15 RB in the 3rd round after grabbing a stud WR in the 2nd.

People are saying he is a risk to not perform at his best. Well he doesn't need to if owners are taking him in the 3rd round. If he didn't get hurt last year and continued to put up the same numbers we would be saying who to take Brown, LT or ADP at #1.

He is someone that put should put up great numbers if healthy, and should be 100% by the time playoffs come around. ACL injuries have low risk of reinjury losing more time after the reconstruction. It's the process of getting to 100%.

Fantasy football is a game of relativity. Last year was very unusual for RB production. Over the past 5 years, that total would have ranked anywhere from 18th to 24th.I personally would be leary in drafting Brown in the 3rd round, as IMO there are a lot safer choices (either at RB or another position). For example, Edge may not be a sexy pick and may have 0 chance to rank in the Top 5, but you know he's going to get the ball 350 times. And he may even be a 4th round pick.

 

[ATC1]

This article says RB production drops off by a third post ACL injury (written by a sports medicine organization).

Data were analyzed for 31 players with 33 ACL injuries. Of the injured players, 21 percent (7 of 33 ACL injuries) never returned to play in another regular season NFL game. Of the 79 percent that did return, most players returned to action 9 to 12 months after an ACL injury.

For those players who returned to NFL action following an ACL injury, performance fell by one-third, the researchers found. Power rating per game played decreased from 9.9 pre-injury to 6.5 post-injury. This decline in player production was statistically significant when compared to the 146 players in the control group.

Knee pain, stiffness, loss of strength, deconditioning and reduced proprioception (the sense of knowing where your leg is) may be factors explaining the loss of production in players after an ACL injury, the authors theorize. Further, ACL reconstruction does not perfectly recreate the complex anatomy and composition of a person's ACL before injury.

I'm sure every case is different, and I'm sure every RB says he will be 100% ready to go way earlier than he actually is.If we literally dropped his per game production by 33%, that would leave him with 57.6 rushing yards, 27.3 receiving yards, and 0.48 TD per game.

If he played 14 games, that would give him 806 rushing yards, 382 receiving yards, and 8 TD. That would be about 166 fantasy points which last year would have ranked 15th.

This is what I don't get. I'll take #15 RB in the 3rd round after grabbing a stud WR in the 2nd.

People are saying he is a risk to not perform at his best. Well he doesn't need to if owners are taking him in the 3rd round. If he didn't get hurt last year and continued to put up the same numbers we would be saying who to take Brown, LT or ADP at #1.

He is someone that put should put up great numbers if healthy, and should be 100% by the time playoffs come around. ACL injuries have low risk of reinjury losing more time after the reconstruction. It's the process of getting to 100%.

Fantasy football is a game of relativity. Last year was very unusual for RB production. Over the past 5 years, that total would have ranked anywhere from 18th to 24th.I personally would be leary in drafting Brown in the 3rd round, as IMO there are a lot safer choices (either at RB or another position). For example, Edge may not be a sexy pick and may have 0 chance to rank in the Top 5, but you know he's going to get the ball 350 times. And he may even be a 4th round pick.

See I a type that plays it safe in the first, so I could gamble on a Clinton Portis last year, or Ronnie Brown this year. If it pans out I have a championship contention team. Easier to back up R. Brown with Ricky Williams much later or a T. Jones or Rudi Johnson in the 5th or S. Young a little later, but still have the upside of a top 8 RB. It's why I'll never own RBs like Edge unless it's good ADP value.

 

[David Yudkin]

This article says RB production drops off by a third post ACL injury (written by a sports medicine organization).

Data were analyzed for 31 players with 33 ACL injuries. Of the injured players, 21 percent (7 of 33 ACL injuries) never returned to play in another regular season NFL game. Of the 79 percent that did return, most players returned to action 9 to 12 months after an ACL injury.

For those players who returned to NFL action following an ACL injury, performance fell by one-third, the researchers found. Power rating per game played decreased from 9.9 pre-injury to 6.5 post-injury. This decline in player production was statistically significant when compared to the 146 players in the control group.

Knee pain, stiffness, loss of strength, deconditioning and reduced proprioception (the sense of knowing where your leg is) may be factors explaining the loss of production in players after an ACL injury, the authors theorize. Further, ACL reconstruction does not perfectly recreate the complex anatomy and composition of a person's ACL before injury.

I'm sure every case is different, and I'm sure every RB says he will be 100% ready to go way earlier than he actually is.If we literally dropped his per game production by 33%, that would leave him with 57.6 rushing yards, 27.3 receiving yards, and 0.48 TD per game.

If he played 14 games, that would give him 806 rushing yards, 382 receiving yards, and 8 TD. That would be about 166 fantasy points which last year would have ranked 15th.

This is what I don't get. I'll take #15 RB in the 3rd round after grabbing a stud WR in the 2nd.

People are saying he is a risk to not perform at his best. Well he doesn't need to if owners are taking him in the 3rd round. If he didn't get hurt last year and continued to put up the same numbers we would be saying who to take Brown, LT or ADP at #1.

He is someone that put should put up great numbers if healthy, and should be 100% by the time playoffs come around. ACL injuries have low risk of reinjury losing more time after the reconstruction. It's the process of getting to 100%.

Fantasy football is a game of relativity. Last year was very unusual for RB production. Over the past 5 years, that total would have ranked anywhere from 18th to 24th.I personally would be leary in drafting Brown in the 3rd round, as IMO there are a lot safer choices (either at RB or another position). For example, Edge may not be a sexy pick and may have 0 chance to rank in the Top 5, but you know he's going to get the ball 350 times. And he may even be a 4th round pick.

See I a type that plays it safe in the first, so I could gamble on a Clinton Portis last year, or Ronnie Brown this year. If it pans out I have a championship contention team. Easier to back up R. Brown with Ricky Williams much later or a T. Jones or Rudi Johnson in the 5th or S. Young a little later, but still have the upside of a top 8 RB. It's why I'll never own RBs like Edge unless it's good ADP value.

Not sure how you really going fishing in the first wound to begin with. 99% of the time the guys going in the first are more proven guys and not people drafting just on upside.Obviously there are a lot of different ways to draft. I am good at getting guys mid to late that will do way better than expected. So I would rather take proven guys over upside guys when they present themselves. I agree that at some point it makes more sense to swing for the fences than take an 8-year vet that has never had more than 45-600-3 at WR.

If you look at the 2nd-3rd RBs the past few years, there are plenty of guys that have done mediocre and several guys taken later that do better than that group. Maroney, Henry, and Benson come to mind from last year and others like Caddy and Kevin Jones as well.

My concerns over Brown are pretty broad . . . QB choices, WR options, new philosophy, Williams, injury recovery, etc. If it was only one or two of those I might be higher on him.

 

[49erBamBam52]

I think they're going to put as much of the running burden as possible on Ricky this, what is clearly a rebuilding year, to get their money's worth out of Ricky and to enable Brown to ease back into the lineup from his injury. Brown's the future there, but they don't need to rush him back. I'd love for him to do more for my dynasty team, but he's a RB2 this year, and may be a frustrating one whose output is tough to predict week to week.

220/885/7

30/270/1

I would also like to add that he very well may be 100% and shouldering most of the load towards the end of the season and may be a very nice buy low candidate in the early weeks of the season. He could be the guy that carries a team in the playoffs but sucks for the first 8 weeks....

we are still talking about the dolphins here arent we???

BAM

 

[David Yudkin]

I think they're going to put as much of the running burden as possible on Ricky this, what is clearly a rebuilding year, to get their money's worth out of Ricky and to enable Brown to ease back into the lineup from his injury. Brown's the future there, but they don't need to rush him back. I'd love for him to do more for my dynasty team, but he's a RB2 this year, and may be a frustrating one whose output is tough to predict week to week.

220/885/7

30/270/1

I would also like to add that he very well may be 100% and shouldering most of the load towards the end of the season and may be a very nice buy low candidate in the early weeks of the season. He could be the guy that carries a team in the playoffs but sucks for the first 8 weeks....

we are still talking about the dolphins here arent we???

BAM

I'm guessing he meant the FANTASY playoffs.

 

[49erBamBam52]

I think they're going to put as much of the running burden as possible on Ricky this, what is clearly a rebuilding year, to get their money's worth out of Ricky and to enable Brown to ease back into the lineup from his injury. Brown's the future there, but they don't need to rush him back. I'd love for him to do more for my dynasty team, but he's a RB2 this year, and may be a frustrating one whose output is tough to predict week to week.

220/885/7

30/270/1

I would also like to add that he very well may be 100% and shouldering most of the load towards the end of the season and may be a very nice buy low candidate in the early weeks of the season. He could be the guy that carries a team in the playoffs but sucks for the first 8 weeks....

we are still talking about the dolphins here arent we???

BAM

I'm guessing he meant the FANTASY playoffs.

Ahhhh, gotcha... my bad

 

[TheFanatic]

Ronnie Brown:

I didn't like Ronnie Brown coming out of Auburn compared to his hype and haven't been a Ronnie Brown supporter yet. It has paid off for me because overall, there isn't a year where he's lived up to his potential.

With that said, Brown still has another big shot to make a splash. He's the starting RB for a Bill Parcells type club and he has the chance to have the kind of year everyone has been waiting for. It won't be for me, his ADP is way too high but I can understand the theory behind where people are coming from, especially in PPR leagues. The amount of receptions he's caught in the short amount of games is impressive and with the QB situation in Miami, he should get a lot of dump offs yet again this season.

800 yards rushing with 5 td's, 50 receptions for 499 yards and 2 td's

It's hard to argue with this point. I drafted R Brown with the first pick in my initial rookie/FA dynasty draft. Up until the beginning of last year he was a major disappointment. However, if you compare his three year performance to that of Frank Gore he measures up pretty well. His average yards per carry over three years 4.4, 4.2 and 5.1 with yards per catch at 7.3, 8.4 and 10.1 while Gore's corresponding stats were 4.8, 5.4 and 4.2 along with 8.7, 8.0 and 8.2. Of course Gore, who has fought some nagging injuries himself, has proven to be more durable despite some health questions coming out of college.All signs point to Ricky getting early carries which hopefully will allow Brown to work his way back into the line-up and prevent further damage to his knee as he recovers. I am sure there are a lot of dynasty owners with their fingers crossed as they look into the future.

225 carries 980 yards 45 receptions 425 yards 7 total TD's

I don't get points in my leagues for YPC or YPR. These stats are pretty meaningless. Brown went in the top 3 his rookie season. Gore wasn't drafted in a lot of leagues till his second season.

In a startup dynasty league Gore's 2nd season I drafted Gore in the 6th round and was laughed at for it. Gore has returned MUCH more bang for the buck than Brown.

You should read the post for what it is not what you want it to be. I didn't say Brown has proven as much as Gore. The stats show, whether you like them or not, that he has the potential to put up numbers comparable to Gore if he can stay healthy. Gore was drafted in our league at the end of the first round in season one. No doubt that owner has been rewarded with more bang for the buck than I have.

What was the point of your post? Why did you draft Gore in his second season if you weren't impressed with his YPC and YPC? While these stats certainly don't measure everything they can be a pretty good gauge as to whether someone has talent.

I did reread the post. You compare him to Gore. You paid MUCH more for Brown that Gore and have gotten very little in return. You state that they have comparable numbers:

However, if you compare his three year performance to that of Frank Gore he measures up pretty well. His average yards per carry over three years 4.4, 4.2 and 5.1 with yards per catch at 7.3, 8.4 and 10.1 while Gore's corresponding stats were 4.8, 5.4 and 4.2 along with 8.7, 8.0 and 8.2.

These stats you post are meaningless. No league is awarding you jack for these. You say they are indicative of someone being a good football player. A good NFL player isn't necessarily a good FFB player. So what if the YPC and YPR are similar? Ronnie Brown finished 23rd overall at RB 3 years ago, 24th 2 years ago and 25th last year. Gore had two top 10 finishes the last 2 years (I'm using non PPR stats here). You accuse me of makign your post into something I want it to be. As if I'm being selective in my response. But who is being selective here? You make it seem like these two guys are comparable but in FFB terms they are not even close. Brown came with a huge price tag and 3 finishes in the 20's. Gore was a steal and two top 10 finishes. Since we are on a FFB board you stats are selective and downright misleading. So what if he has a good YPC if he can't keep it together for 16 games. So what if he has a good YPR if he can't string together enough solid outings to get into at least RB2 range.

So, Gore = Cheap and Productive. Brown = Expensive and Little Production. Yet you make it seem like the two are similar with your selective choice of stats and that so far from the true picture that it's comical.

I think the question of whether Caddy or Brown could carry the load for an NFL team after splitting time in college seems to be no for both.

There is nothing in my post(s) that declare(s) Brown has had comparable FF results to Gore including my predictions for this year (which puts him well below Gore).I also stated that Brown had been a major disappointment until the beginning of last year.

What I did state was that Brown's production, when healthy, is comparable to Gore's and I stand by that. They both have been playing on pretty offensively inept teams as well. I believe he has the POTENTIAL to be a productive FF player. My posting was an attempt to justify my prediction for Brown's numbers this year which is the theme of this thread. YPC and YPA's are a valid statistical basis from which to draw seasonal conclusions.

If you want to make it about Brown vs. Gore long term than that is your option.

OK, I see your point a little better now. And yes when healthy, Brown's numbers are pretty darn good. They guy was a beast for what, 6-7 weeks last year. He just can't stay healthy.

 

[munchkin]

Ronnie Brown:

I didn't like Ronnie Brown coming out of Auburn compared to his hype and haven't been a Ronnie Brown supporter yet. It has paid off for me because overall, there isn't a year where he's lived up to his potential.

With that said, Brown still has another big shot to make a splash. He's the starting RB for a Bill Parcells type club and he has the chance to have the kind of year everyone has been waiting for. It won't be for me, his ADP is way too high but I can understand the theory behind where people are coming from, especially in PPR leagues. The amount of receptions he's caught in the short amount of games is impressive and with the QB situation in Miami, he should get a lot of dump offs yet again this season.

800 yards rushing with 5 td's, 50 receptions for 499 yards and 2 td's

It's hard to argue with this point. I drafted R Brown with the first pick in my initial rookie/FA dynasty draft. Up until the beginning of last year he was a major disappointment. However, if you compare his three year performance to that of Frank Gore he measures up pretty well. His average yards per carry over three years 4.4, 4.2 and 5.1 with yards per catch at 7.3, 8.4 and 10.1 while Gore's corresponding stats were 4.8, 5.4 and 4.2 along with 8.7, 8.0 and 8.2. Of course Gore, who has fought some nagging injuries himself, has proven to be more durable despite some health questions coming out of college.All signs point to Ricky getting early carries which hopefully will allow Brown to work his way back into the line-up and prevent further damage to his knee as he recovers. I am sure there are a lot of dynasty owners with their fingers crossed as they look into the future.

225 carries 980 yards 45 receptions 425 yards 7 total TD's

I don't get points in my leagues for YPC or YPR. These stats are pretty meaningless. Brown went in the top 3 his rookie season. Gore wasn't drafted in a lot of leagues till his second season.

In a startup dynasty league Gore's 2nd season I drafted Gore in the 6th round and was laughed at for it. Gore has returned MUCH more bang for the buck than Brown.

You should read the post for what it is not what you want it to be. I didn't say Brown has proven as much as Gore. The stats show, whether you like them or not, that he has the potential to put up numbers comparable to Gore if he can stay healthy. Gore was drafted in our league at the end of the first round in season one. No doubt that owner has been rewarded with more bang for the buck than I have.

What was the point of your post? Why did you draft Gore in his second season if you weren't impressed with his YPC and YPC? While these stats certainly don't measure everything they can be a pretty good gauge as to whether someone has talent.

I did reread the post. You compare him to Gore. You paid MUCH more for Brown that Gore and have gotten very little in return. You state that they have comparable numbers:

However, if you compare his three year performance to that of Frank Gore he measures up pretty well. His average yards per carry over three years 4.4, 4.2 and 5.1 with yards per catch at 7.3, 8.4 and 10.1 while Gore's corresponding stats were 4.8, 5.4 and 4.2 along with 8.7, 8.0 and 8.2.

These stats you post are meaningless. No league is awarding you jack for these. You say they are indicative of someone being a good football player. A good NFL player isn't necessarily a good FFB player. So what if the YPC and YPR are similar? Ronnie Brown finished 23rd overall at RB 3 years ago, 24th 2 years ago and 25th last year. Gore had two top 10 finishes the last 2 years (I'm using non PPR stats here). You accuse me of makign your post into something I want it to be. As if I'm being selective in my response. But who is being selective here? You make it seem like these two guys are comparable but in FFB terms they are not even close. Brown came with a huge price tag and 3 finishes in the 20's. Gore was a steal and two top 10 finishes. Since we are on a FFB board you stats are selective and downright misleading. So what if he has a good YPC if he can't keep it together for 16 games. So what if he has a good YPR if he can't string together enough solid outings to get into at least RB2 range.

So, Gore = Cheap and Productive. Brown = Expensive and Little Production. Yet you make it seem like the two are similar with your selective choice of stats and that so far from the true picture that it's comical.

I think the question of whether Caddy or Brown could carry the load for an NFL team after splitting time in college seems to be no for both.

There is nothing in my post(s) that declare(s) Brown has had comparable FF results to Gore including my predictions for this year (which puts him well below Gore).I also stated that Brown had been a major disappointment until the beginning of last year.

What I did state was that Brown's production, when healthy, is comparable to Gore's and I stand by that. They both have been playing on pretty offensively inept teams as well. I believe he has the POTENTIAL to be a productive FF player. My posting was an attempt to justify my prediction for Brown's numbers this year which is the theme of this thread. YPC and YPA's are a valid statistical basis from which to draw seasonal conclusions.

If you want to make it about Brown vs. Gore long term than that is your option.

OK, I see your point a little better now. And yes when healthy, Brown's numbers are pretty darn good. They guy was a beast for what, 6-7 weeks last year. He just can't stay healthy.

Which makes him a difficult player to know what to do with. I have to hold on to him because I couldn't get much value in a trade based on his perceived value. I'm hoping his upside is Gore/Portis like but it may be Jacobs/Julius Jones.

 

[David Yudkin]

Not sure why I am spending so much energy on Ronnie Brown, but . . .

Over his career, Brown has averaged 16.2 carries, 71.9 rushing yards, 3 receptions, 25.6 receiving yards, and 0.43 total TD per game. That would work out to 12.33 fantasy ppg (0 ppr). If that article I cited is accurate and he does lose 33% of his production, that would put him at about 8.3 ppg. Thent he question is how many games he would play. At 14 games played, that would net him about 115 points . . . which last year would rank in the 30s.

Bottom line, Brown's projections will likely be all over the map this year.

 

[LBH]

im avoiding R.Brown like the plague this year. Way too many other options I like at his ADP. If he comes back well from injury and is the feature back in the offense Ill reconsider my opinion of him, but right now those are things Im not willing to gamble on early in a draft

 

[isiahcleaves]

I believe Brown's ADP is pretty accurate right now given the uncertainty with the ACL. I understand why people would project him out to be slightly higher than it based on his production last year before the injury (put me in that category... I'm a Ronnie Brown optimist)... but I totally understand why people would project him out to be slightly lower than it based on him coming back from the injury with hesitancy and Ricky supposedly looking good thus far....

what I don't understand is (and I'm not sure if I'm supposed to single this out or not) how 2 writers here can predict such a ridiculously low ADP for him. Are they looking into a crystal ball and just banking on an injury right off the bat?

Mark Wimer has Ronnie ranked 33rd in a redraft and 34th in a ppr league

John Norton has Ronnie ranked 27th in a redraft and 41st in a ppr league

I guess I have more of a problem with the ppr rankings than anything. Does anyone really believe a 31 year old Ricky Williams poses a serious threat to get a lions share of the receptions out of the Dolphin backfield? Ronnie had 39 catches for 390 yards in 7 games last year. Again... he's coming off a major injury... but why would his ppr ranking be the same or (in Norton's case) significantly higher than his redraft ranking?

Don't mean to nit pick... but I've been seriously looking at rankings today for the first time in a while to get into FF mode and Brown is a guy I'm targetting at his ADP. I've read the thread (and even contributed to it early on) and saw some justification from the pessimists... but I'd appreciate it if one of the writers would comment on the ppr aspect of it.

Thanks in advance.

 

[isiahcleaves]

One more point...

I saw this earlier in this thread...

"Ronnie Brown finished 23rd overall at RB 3 years ago, 24th 2 years ago and 25th last year."

This is indicative of his inability to stay healthy... and I understand why people would rank him in this range based on his previous and current health problems.

BUT... wouldn't you agree these are low ball estimates barring him suffering another injury that causes him to lose more than half a season?

I just don't see how that can be factored into a ranking moreso than it already is.

 

[MCguidance]

Just an update for those curious, Ronnie Brown is a GTD for Saturday's preseason game. I would be a bit surprised they would play him - but it would seem to be indicative that Brown is recovering nicely.

 

[GoBirds]

How much does Pennington help?

 

[teamroc]

I think they're going to put as much of the running burden as possible on Ricky this, what is clearly a rebuilding year, to get their money's worth out of Ricky and to enable Brown to ease back into the lineup from his injury. Brown's the future there, but they don't need to rush him back. I'd love for him to do more for my dynasty team, but he's a RB2 this year, and may be a frustrating one whose output is tough to predict week to week.

220/885/7

30/270/1

I would also like to add that he very well may be 100% and shouldering most of the load towards the end of the season and may be a very nice buy low candidate in the early weeks of the season. He could be the guy that carries a team in the playoffs but sucks for the first 8 weeks....

we are still talking about the dolphins here arent we???

BAM

I'm guessing he meant the FANTASY playoffs.

Ahhhh, gotcha... my bad

Gotta love the 49er fan crackin on the Dolphin fan. That's like a reetarded kid calling Forrest Gump dumb.

 

[T Bell]

I think they're going to put as much of the running burden as possible on Ricky this, what is clearly a rebuilding year, to get their money's worth out of Ricky and to enable Brown to ease back into the lineup from his injury. Brown's the future there, but they don't need to rush him back. I'd love for him to do more for my dynasty team, but he's a RB2 this year, and may be a frustrating one whose output is tough to predict week to week.

220/885/7

30/270/1

I would also like to add that he very well may be 100% and shouldering most of the load towards the end of the season and may be a very nice buy low candidate in the early weeks of the season. He could be the guy that carries a team in the playoffs but sucks for the first 8 weeks....

we are still talking about the dolphins here arent we???

BAM

I'm guessing he meant the FANTASY playoffs.

Ahhhh, gotcha... my bad

Gotta love the 49er fan crackin on the Dolphin fan. That's like a reetarded kid calling Forrest Gump dumb.

Yeah, but he knows what is.