Player Spotlight: Roy Williams (1 Viewer)

[Jason Wood]

2009 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. Last year, we published more than 120 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters. This year will be no different.

Each week we will post a list of players to be discussed. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discussion expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Roy Williams, WR, Dallas Cowboys

Player Page Link: Roy Williams Player Page

Each article will include:

Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads
FBG Projections
Consensus Member ProjectionsThe Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

Focus commentary on the player in question, and your expectations for said player
Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
To be included in the final synopsis and consensus outlook, you MUST provide projections for the playerProjections should include (at a minimum):

For QBs: Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDsNow let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

 

[Blackjacks]

Thank you for starting this Jason. This is truely my favorite thread in the forums..

As for Roy, I've always been a big believer in his talents and I think he has been a bit of a disappointed so far in his career for what he could be.

This year I think some things are going to change though. He definetly has his best chance to succeed for a couple of reasons:

1) the best offense he has been part of

2) the best oline he has ever played with

3) the best o coordinator he hasn't ever played with

4) the best supporting cast he has ever played with

5) the best team (expectations) he has ever had

I look for Roy to put up a similiar season to is 2006 year where he set career highs in yards and catches.

He will be the first or second option everytime they go back to pass.

My expectations are:

85 catches

1350 yards

8 td's

should be a solid top 15 guy with a chance to break into the top 10

 

[HawkeyeChief]

Love the situation...hate the attitude he has had in the past...he is a tough one to judge but I believe he will excel here (just traded 1st and 3rd round rookie picks next year for him)...

80 rec.

1280 yds

8 tds

 

[Snotbubbles]

Williams highest FF finish as a WR was in 2006 when he finished 10th and that was for a team that finished 2nd in the league in pass attempts with 596 and dead last in rushing attempts. 2006 was also a year where Williams had his highest YPC. Now he's going to an offense that will run more and throw less then that magical 2006 season he had in Mike Martz system. Another mark on Williams is he has a problem staying on the field. For these reason's I don't see Williams being a top 10 player.

65-930-7 (Good for about 20-25th)

 

[Dr. Octopus]

This should be one of the most volitile threads in the series - as people will label him as everything from a "Top 5 WR" to a complete bust. I tend to fall more towards the former, although I don't see him breaking into the top 10. Anyone that has watched him knows the talent is there, he has the size and speed combo to be an elite WR. However injuries and what seems like a poor work ethic (or at least a lack of mental toughness) have held him back. He finds himself in the best situation that he has been in yet as he'll now have a Pro-Bowl talent at QB and an elite TE to take some pressure off of him.

With a full offseason in the system expect much better results than the trainwreck that he was last season. He'll be at worst Romo's second look in what should continue to be a pretty successful offense.

81 - 1,145 - 8

 

[Darker Knight]

Thank you for starting this Jason. This is truely my favorite thread in the forums..As for Roy, I've always been a big believer in his talents and I think he has been a bit of a disappointed so far in his career for what he could be.This year I think some things are going to change though. He definetly has his best chance to succeed for a couple of reasons:1) the best offense he has been part of2) the best oline he has ever played with3) the best o coordinator he hasn't ever played with4) the best supporting cast he has ever played with5) the best team (expectations) he has ever hadI look for Roy to put up a similiar season to is 2006 year where he set career highs in yards and catches.He will be the first or second option everytime they go back to pass.My expectations are:85 catches1350 yards8 td'sshould be a solid top 15 guy with a chance to break into the top 10

I agree...I would put his TD's at about 11 and I think he breaks into the top ten. Roy has tons of talent if he stays healthy he will put up some very good numbers88/1325/11

 

[Buckna]

Thank you for starting this Jason. This is truely my favorite thread in the forums..As for Roy, I've always been a big believer in his talents and I think he has been a bit of a disappointed so far in his career for what he could be.This year I think some things are going to change though. He definetly has his best chance to succeed for a couple of reasons:1) the best offense he has been part of2) the best oline he has ever played with3) the best o coordinator he hasn't ever played with4) the best supporting cast he has ever played with5) the best team (expectations) he has ever hadI look for Roy to put up a similiar season to is 2006 year where he set career highs in yards and catches.He will be the first or second option everytime they go back to pass.My expectations are:85 catches1350 yards8 td'sshould be a solid top 15 guy with a chance to break into the top 10

I agree...I would put his TD's at about 11 and I think he breaks into the top ten. Roy has tons of talent if he stays healthy he will put up some very good numbers88/1325/11

Those kind of numbers would have had him as the #4 WR last year, and only one TD less than Calvin Johnson.

 

[Lott's Fingertip]

First, some Owens stats:

Owens' targets per game, 2006-2008: 9.4, 9.4, 8.75 (9.19 total)

Owens' targets per game, 2006-2008, w/out Romo (8.5 games): 8.59

Owens' targets per game, 2006-2008, with Romo (38.5 games): 9.32

His catch percentage in Dallas with Romo throwing to him: 55%

His catch percentage with other QBs throwing to him: 49.3%

Owens' career yards per catch without Romo: 14.58

Owens' career yards per catch with Romo: 15.81

First glance conclusion: Romo is better than the other QBs and Owens benefitted.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Now, some Roy Williams stats:

Targets per game, 2004-2007: 8.1, 7.23, 9.6, 8.7 (8.45 average)

2004 catch percentage: 47.4%

2005 catch percentage: 47.9%

2006 catch percentage: 53.6%

2007 catch percentage: 60.6%

2004-2005: The Joey Harrington, et al, experiment = bad catch %. (47.6%)

2006-2007: The Jon Kitna Revival = decent to good catch %. (56.4% average)

First glance conclusion: Kitna was better than Harrington, et al, and Roy Williams benefitted.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Facts and mitigating factors to consider:

2006-2007 in Detroit was Mad Mike Martz era, so Detroit's passing attempts were inflated. However, Detroit averaged about 4200 yards and 20 TDs in 06-07, while Dallas has averaged 4100 yards and 30 TDs from 06-08. So Dallas was much more efficient, achieving similar passing yards with significantly more passing TDs.

While Kitna was better than Harrington, Romo is almost certainly better than Kitna. If the premise that a better QB will help their WRs is true, then Roy would seem to be in a position to improve.

Possibly working against Dallas' passing game: TO helped the whole passing attack with his on-field ability and by taking coverage away from the other players. Also, Dallas has a good, deep RB corps and may look to run more than in the past. While this is a real possibility, it is still just speculation. Dallas is unlikely to become a Baltimore Ravens clone.

The average pass attempts in the NFL last year was 514. Dallas has averaged 528 over the last 3 seasons, about 2.7% above the 2008 average. In the 3 seasons before TO and Romo, Dallas averaged 506 pass attempts. It would seem unlikely that Dallas in in line for a significant reduction in pass attempts.

Detroit had 74 passing TDs from 04-07 (19, 15, 21, 19), an average of 18.5 per year. 7 of those came when Roy was not playing. So, Roy caught 28 out of 67 TDs when he played from 04-07, about 41.79% of them.

Dallas had 91 passing TDs from 06-08. Owens caught 38 in that span, about 41.75% of them.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

So... more numbers and assumptions.

Roy caught 56.4% of his catches with Kitna as his QB. Romo is a 63.6% career passer, Kitna a 59.8% career passer and 62.2% with Detroit. Is it unreasonable to say that Roy Williams will have a similar catch% with Romo that he had with Kitna? I think that is reasonable.

Romo and Dallas has been significantly more efficient in the passing game than Detroit, even in the Martz years. Dallas has had 12.56 yards per completion from 06-08, Detroit had 11.38 yards per completion in 06-07. Detroit had 7.12 yards per attempt, Dallas had 7.77 yards per attempt.

So, we have established that Dallas has been more efficient in their passing game than Detroit.

Dallas is unlikely to fall off a cliff in their pass attempts. They averaged 506 in 3 year without Romo/TO, 528 in 3 season with them. The likely 2009 total will fall in that range.

TO had better numbers under Romo than under other QBs in Dallas.

Roy had better numbers under Kitna than othe QBs in Detroit.

Romo is better than Kitna.

Ergo, Roy should be at least a little more productive than he was in Detroit in a more efficient passing offense with a better QB.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Finally....

Roy's targets per game in Detroit 04-07, taking the good and the bad: 8.45

Owens' targets with Romo: 9.32

Let's assume 8.5 targets per game for Roy and a 56% catch% he had with Kitna. That gives us 4.76 catches per game. Roy's ypc from 04-07 is 14.96, his career ypc is 14.6.

4.76 * 14.6 = 69.5 yards per game = 1112 yards in 16 games

For reference, if we assume 53.6% catch % (the low with Kitna) and 8.5 targets/g, we get 66.5 yards per game = 73 catches and 1064 yards in 16 games.

That is his career average targets/g, his career average YPC even with last season, and his catch % with Kitna, an inferior QB than Romo.

How about TDs?

Roy caught about 42% of Detroit's passing Tds from 04-07. TO caught the same percentage in Dallas.

Roy has 28 TDs in 55 games from 04-07, or .51 TD/g. TDs are hard to predict, but this seems like a reasonable number to use.

Let's give Dallas 26 TDs, their lowest amount from 06-08. Roy has averaged 8 Tds per 16 games, but 42% of his team's passing TDs.... 42% of 26 = 11 TDs. 8 TDs would be 30-31% of 26 TDs. I don't think it is unreasonable for him to be in the middle somewhere, especially since we are assuming 26 TDs instead of Dallas' 3 year average of 30.33.

So, on a 16 game projection, we end up with:

between 73 and 76 catches for 1064 - 1112 yards and 8ish TDs. That is good for 154 - 159 fantasy points... WR 12/13 last year.

These are with low end numbers. If you assume 6 TDs (his low from 04-07 is 5 in 12 games) and 1064 yards, he still is WR19.

What if Roy stays healthy and, GASP, improves his numbers with a better QB/team????

~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Projections:

74 catches, 1090 yards, 7 TDs

good for WR12-14, with upside (and injury downside)

 

[Blackjacks]

First, some Owens stats:Owens' targets per game, 2006-2008: 9.4, 9.4, 8.75 (9.19 total)Owens' targets per game, 2006-2008, w/out Romo (8.5 games): 8.59Owens' targets per game, 2006-2008, with Romo (38.5 games): 9.32His catch percentage in Dallas with Romo throwing to him: 55%His catch percentage with other QBs throwing to him: 49.3%Owens' career yards per catch without Romo: 14.58Owens' career yards per catch with Romo: 15.81First glance conclusion: Romo is better than the other QBs and Owens benefitted.~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~Now, some Roy Williams stats:Targets per game, 2004-2007: 8.1, 7.23, 9.6, 8.7 (8.45 average)2004 catch percentage: 47.4%2005 catch percentage: 47.9%2006 catch percentage: 53.6%2007 catch percentage: 60.6%2004-2005: The Joey Harrington, et al, experiment = bad catch %. (47.6%)2006-2007: The Jon Kitna Revival = decent to good catch %. (56.4% average)First glance conclusion: Kitna was better than Harrington, et al, and Roy Williams benefitted.~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~Facts and mitigating factors to consider:2006-2007 in Detroit was Mad Mike Martz era, so Detroit's passing attempts were inflated. However, Detroit averaged about 4200 yards and 20 TDs in 06-07, while Dallas has averaged 4100 yards and 30 TDs from 06-08. So Dallas was much more efficient, achieving similar passing yards with significantly more passing TDs.While Kitna was better than Harrington, Romo is almost certainly better than Kitna. If the premise that a better QB will help their WRs is true, then Roy would seem to be in a position to improve.Possibly working against Dallas' passing game: TO helped the whole passing attack with his on-field ability and by taking coverage away from the other players. Also, Dallas has a good, deep RB corps and may look to run more than in the past. While this is a real possibility, it is still just speculation. Dallas is unlikely to become a Baltimore Ravens clone.The average pass attempts in the NFL last year was 514. Dallas has averaged 528 over the last 3 seasons, about 2.7% above the 2008 average. In the 3 seasons before TO and Romo, Dallas averaged 506 pass attempts. It would seem unlikely that Dallas in in line for a significant reduction in pass attempts.Detroit had 74 passing TDs from 04-07 (19, 15, 21, 19), an average of 18.5 per year. 7 of those came when Roy was not playing. So, Roy caught 28 out of 67 TDs when he played from 04-07, about 41.79% of them.Dallas had 91 passing TDs from 06-08. Owens caught 38 in that span, about 41.75% of them.~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~So... more numbers and assumptions.Roy caught 56.4% of his catches with Kitna as his QB. Romo is a 63.6% career passer, Kitna a 59.8% career passer and 62.2% with Detroit. Is it unreasonable to say that Roy Williams will have a similar catch% with Romo that he had with Kitna? I think that is reasonable.Romo and Dallas has been significantly more efficient in the passing game than Detroit, even in the Martz years. Dallas has had 12.56 yards per completion from 06-08, Detroit had 11.38 yards per completion in 06-07. Detroit had 7.12 yards per attempt, Dallas had 7.77 yards per attempt. So, we have established that Dallas has been more efficient in their passing game than Detroit.Dallas is unlikely to fall off a cliff in their pass attempts. They averaged 506 in 3 year without Romo/TO, 528 in 3 season with them. The likely 2009 total will fall in that range.TO had better numbers under Romo than under other QBs in Dallas.Roy had better numbers under Kitna than othe QBs in Detroit.Romo is better than Kitna.Ergo, Roy should be at least a little more productive than he was in Detroit in a more efficient passing offense with a better QB. ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~Finally....Roy's targets per game in Detroit 04-07, taking the good and the bad: 8.45Owens' targets with Romo: 9.32Let's assume 8.5 targets per game for Roy and a 56% catch% he had with Kitna. That gives us 4.76 catches per game. Roy's ypc from 04-07 is 14.96, his career ypc is 14.6.4.76 * 14.6 = 69.5 yards per game = 1112 yards in 16 gamesFor reference, if we assume 53.6% catch % (the low with Kitna) and 8.5 targets/g, we get 66.5 yards per game = 73 catches and 1064 yards in 16 games.That is his career average targets/g, his career average YPC even with last season, and his catch % with Kitna, an inferior QB than Romo.How about TDs?Roy caught about 42% of Detroit's passing Tds from 04-07. TO caught the same percentage in Dallas.Roy has 28 TDs in 55 games from 04-07, or .51 TD/g. TDs are hard to predict, but this seems like a reasonable number to use.Let's give Dallas 26 TDs, their lowest amount from 06-08. Roy has averaged 8 Tds per 16 games, but 42% of his team's passing TDs.... 42% of 26 = 11 TDs. 8 TDs would be 30-31% of 26 TDs. I don't think it is unreasonable for him to be in the middle somewhere, especially since we are assuming 26 TDs instead of Dallas' 3 year average of 30.33.So, on a 16 game projection, we end up with:between 73 and 76 catches for 1064 - 1112 yards and 8ish TDs. That is good for 154 - 159 fantasy points... WR 12/13 last year.These are with low end numbers. If you assume 6 TDs (his low from 04-07 is 5 in 12 games) and 1064 yards, he still is WR19. What if Roy stays healthy and, GASP, improves his numbers with a better QB/team????~~~~~~~~~~~~~Projections:74 catches, 1090 yards, 7 TDsgood for WR12-14, with upside (and injury downside)

This is some research and why I like to read footballguys forums.Great job.

 

[CBower4545]

I think Roy's situation is similar to S. Moss in 08. Both have strong running games, a heavily involved pass catching TE, RBs involved in the pass game, and no real threats at WR. Washington passed the ball 510 times in 08, not an unlikely number for Dallas. The TEs got 131, Rbs got 87, and WRs got 285. Moss got 138 targets. While I think the TE and RB targets will be up in Dallas, Roy should get a better percentage of the WR targets. So with lets say 503 pass attempts something like 140 TEs 95 RBs and 268 for Wrs. Giving 70 to the #2 WR and and another 50 to 60 for the other WRs. That Leaves 138 to 148 targets. WR3+ do not get many targets in Dallas 2008 69 (with Roy in that group), 2007 47, 2006 59. That WR depth has not improved. This would give Roy 51% to 55% of the WR targets. Receiving 55% of the WR targets is not unprecedented Bowe got that in KC last year with a Weak WR core and a heavily involved TE.

Given 138 targets. Roy increases in both Y/R and catch % over his average as a #1 WR from Detroit due to playing in Dallas with Romo and a balanced offense.

Career AVG Y/R 14.9 catch % 52.5%

In Dallas 09 Y/R 15.6 catch % 57%

Dallas Should provide more scoring chances with that offense. During Roy's time as a #1 WR in Detroit he scored .51 tds per game. Say Roy improves upon that to .55 tds per game. That would give Roy 9 tds.

135 targets 77 Receptions 1201 yards 9 tds. Which is good enough for 174.1 points.

 

[Chicago Hooligan]

This should be one of the most volitile threads in the series - as people will label him as everything from a "Top 5 WR" to a complete bust.

Also, I wonder if anyone who's been burned by Roy in the past is among those high on him in 2009. I know that my opinion is colored by rostering him for 3 seasons (his 1 great one and 2 disappointing). I have no faith in his "talent" anymore.

 

[Gopher State]

65-900-6tds

Should be top 20?

 

[Darker Knight]

Thank you for starting this Jason. This is truely my favorite thread in the forums..As for Roy, I've always been a big believer in his talents and I think he has been a bit of a disappointed so far in his career for what he could be.This year I think some things are going to change though. He definetly has his best chance to succeed for a couple of reasons:1) the best offense he has been part of2) the best oline he has ever played with3) the best o coordinator he hasn't ever played with4) the best supporting cast he has ever played with5) the best team (expectations) he has ever hadI look for Roy to put up a similiar season to is 2006 year where he set career highs in yards and catches.He will be the first or second option everytime they go back to pass.My expectations are:85 catches1350 yards8 td'sshould be a solid top 15 guy with a chance to break into the top 10

I agree...I would put his TD's at about 11 and I think he breaks into the top ten. Roy has tons of talent if he stays healthy he will put up some very good numbers88/1325/11

Those kind of numbers would have had him as the #4 WR last year, and only one TD less than Calvin Johnson.

And........

 

[Banger]

First, some Owens stats:Owens' targets per game, 2006-2008: 9.4, 9.4, 8.75 (9.19 total)Owens' targets per game, 2006-2008, w/out Romo (8.5 games): 8.59Owens' targets per game, 2006-2008, with Romo (38.5 games): 9.32His catch percentage in Dallas with Romo throwing to him: 55%His catch percentage with other QBs throwing to him: 49.3%Owens' career yards per catch without Romo: 14.58Owens' career yards per catch with Romo: 15.81First glance conclusion: Romo is better than the other QBs and Owens benefitted.~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~Now, some Roy Williams stats:Targets per game, 2004-2007: 8.1, 7.23, 9.6, 8.7 (8.45 average)2004 catch percentage: 47.4%2005 catch percentage: 47.9%2006 catch percentage: 53.6%2007 catch percentage: 60.6%2004-2005: The Joey Harrington, et al, experiment = bad catch %. (47.6%)2006-2007: The Jon Kitna Revival = decent to good catch %. (56.4% average)First glance conclusion: Kitna was better than Harrington, et al, and Roy Williams benefitted.~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~Facts and mitigating factors to consider:2006-2007 in Detroit was Mad Mike Martz era, so Detroit's passing attempts were inflated. However, Detroit averaged about 4200 yards and 20 TDs in 06-07, while Dallas has averaged 4100 yards and 30 TDs from 06-08. So Dallas was much more efficient, achieving similar passing yards with significantly more passing TDs.While Kitna was better than Harrington, Romo is almost certainly better than Kitna. If the premise that a better QB will help their WRs is true, then Roy would seem to be in a position to improve.Possibly working against Dallas' passing game: TO helped the whole passing attack with his on-field ability and by taking coverage away from the other players. Also, Dallas has a good, deep RB corps and may look to run more than in the past. While this is a real possibility, it is still just speculation. Dallas is unlikely to become a Baltimore Ravens clone.The average pass attempts in the NFL last year was 514. Dallas has averaged 528 over the last 3 seasons, about 2.7% above the 2008 average. In the 3 seasons before TO and Romo, Dallas averaged 506 pass attempts. It would seem unlikely that Dallas in in line for a significant reduction in pass attempts.Detroit had 74 passing TDs from 04-07 (19, 15, 21, 19), an average of 18.5 per year. 7 of those came when Roy was not playing. So, Roy caught 28 out of 67 TDs when he played from 04-07, about 41.79% of them.Dallas had 91 passing TDs from 06-08. Owens caught 38 in that span, about 41.75% of them.~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~So... more numbers and assumptions.Roy caught 56.4% of his catches with Kitna as his QB. Romo is a 63.6% career passer, Kitna a 59.8% career passer and 62.2% with Detroit. Is it unreasonable to say that Roy Williams will have a similar catch% with Romo that he had with Kitna? I think that is reasonable.Romo and Dallas has been significantly more efficient in the passing game than Detroit, even in the Martz years. Dallas has had 12.56 yards per completion from 06-08, Detroit had 11.38 yards per completion in 06-07. Detroit had 7.12 yards per attempt, Dallas had 7.77 yards per attempt. So, we have established that Dallas has been more efficient in their passing game than Detroit.Dallas is unlikely to fall off a cliff in their pass attempts. They averaged 506 in 3 year without Romo/TO, 528 in 3 season with them. The likely 2009 total will fall in that range.TO had better numbers under Romo than under other QBs in Dallas.Roy had better numbers under Kitna than othe QBs in Detroit.Romo is better than Kitna.Ergo, Roy should be at least a little more productive than he was in Detroit in a more efficient passing offense with a better QB. ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~Finally....Roy's targets per game in Detroit 04-07, taking the good and the bad: 8.45Owens' targets with Romo: 9.32Let's assume 8.5 targets per game for Roy and a 56% catch% he had with Kitna. That gives us 4.76 catches per game. Roy's ypc from 04-07 is 14.96, his career ypc is 14.6.4.76 * 14.6 = 69.5 yards per game = 1112 yards in 16 gamesFor reference, if we assume 53.6% catch % (the low with Kitna) and 8.5 targets/g, we get 66.5 yards per game = 73 catches and 1064 yards in 16 games.That is his career average targets/g, his career average YPC even with last season, and his catch % with Kitna, an inferior QB than Romo.How about TDs?Roy caught about 42% of Detroit's passing Tds from 04-07. TO caught the same percentage in Dallas.Roy has 28 TDs in 55 games from 04-07, or .51 TD/g. TDs are hard to predict, but this seems like a reasonable number to use.Let's give Dallas 26 TDs, their lowest amount from 06-08. Roy has averaged 8 Tds per 16 games, but 42% of his team's passing TDs.... 42% of 26 = 11 TDs. 8 TDs would be 30-31% of 26 TDs. I don't think it is unreasonable for him to be in the middle somewhere, especially since we are assuming 26 TDs instead of Dallas' 3 year average of 30.33.So, on a 16 game projection, we end up with:between 73 and 76 catches for 1064 - 1112 yards and 8ish TDs. That is good for 154 - 159 fantasy points... WR 12/13 last year.These are with low end numbers. If you assume 6 TDs (his low from 04-07 is 5 in 12 games) and 1064 yards, he still is WR19. What if Roy stays healthy and, GASP, improves his numbers with a better QB/team????~~~~~~~~~~~~~Projections:74 catches, 1090 yards, 7 TDsgood for WR12-14, with upside (and injury downside)

Wow...now that's some info. good stuff Lott...I was coming in here to project him to be about 75-1050-6 but with none of the supporting detail. Now if someone asks me why I'll point them to your writeup..

 

[5-ish Finkle]

Projections:74 catches, 1090 yards, 7 TDsgood for WR12-14, with upside (and injury downside)

A lot of exhaustive research to come up with that. Good work.I pretty much concur with your totals. I think a best case scenario(i.e. he plays 15-16 games) will be 1100 yards and 7-8 TDs on around 70-75 catches.My biggest rub with him is that, more than most WRs, I feel it's equally likely that he only plays 12-13 games and drops something on us like 60 catches for 830 yards with 3 TDs.

 

[SugarNuts]

When was the last time Dallas's #1 WR, regardless of who it was, finished outside the top 15? Just curious...

 

[TaxMan]

i must say i'm a bit surprised at all the Roy love in the first 10+ responses in this thread. It's just contrary to the consensus out there.

I've acquired Roy in 5 dynasties thru trade or startup in the last few months.

83-1320-8. career year especially for YPR.

 

[MAC_32]

I think Dallas is going to be a lot more run-heavy than the past so that alone lowers Roy's ceiling. Add to that his constantly underwhelming production and I don't think he'll be a good risk where he goes in drafts. If he's there at pick 60+ and 20-25 WR's are off the board I'll consider him.

 

[Snotbubbles]

When was the last time Dallas's #1 WR, regardless of who it was, finished outside the top 15? Just curious...

2004

 

[Buckna]

When was the last time Dallas's #1 WR, regardless of who it was, finished outside the top 15? Just curious...

Keyshawn Johnson in 2004 was #27. Terry Glenn was #12 in 2005. Then it was Owens the next 3 years. Before Key you have to go back to Rocket Ismail in 1999 to get a top 15 WR, #13.

 

[kremenull]

The Cowboys will look to get Roy W involved early and often into the offense each week this year. After the release of Terrell Owens, the onus is on everyone in the organization, and you best believe that J.Jones' hints that Roy will be a big part of the offense will not go unnoticed by coaches and players (namely Romo), to prove that Roy is more than capable of being a #1 WR in this offense, and thus also justify his acquisition price.

I'm projecting 145 targets (+/- 5) for Roy W in '09 and am not a believer in the secondary WRs (Austin, Crayton, and others) in Dallas. So my bottom line stat projection is....

88 rec, 1245 yds, 8 TDs.

 

[Ridgelake]

Lott's Fingertip, that is an OUTSTANING post. I was planning on doing something along those lines, but you've done far more than I expected to do. Just an excellent, excellent post. Thank you.

 

[gonzobill5]

Put me down on the low end of the projections. I see him as the third weapon on that team at best after Witten and Felix. Honestly, I think even that is generous.

In the last 4 games he had 8 catches for 37 yards and 0 TDs (he received 24 targets in those 4 games, not too shabby). He didn't have one decent game with the Cowboys the whole time he was there. In fact, the only game that looks decent was with Detroit against Chicago - 7 catches for 96 yards on EIGHTEEN targets. He was one of the worst WRs in the league in 2007.

While I think TO leaving will present a ton more opportunity for someone in Dallas, nothing Roy Williams has done of late indicates that he'll be the one to benefit from it. You have to think that Wade Phillips is on borrowed time, so he's going to have to get his best players on the field and not pay attention to how much you get paid or how much you were traded for.

Check out Miles Austin's production pre-Roy and maybe you'll agree with these projections:

Roy W.

32 catches

400 yards

2 TDs

Miles Austin

50 catches

700 yards

6 Tds

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Many a poster laughed their tails off when MOP posted 50-700-5 or below last year...I can't believe I am seeing folks posting north of 1,200 yards...insane I tell you. Another WR that will be drafted way too high for my liking. I am much more intrigued with the WR2/3 in Dallas.

 

[The Man With No Name]

Many a poster laughed their tails off when MOP posted 50-700-5 or below last year.

You posted he would have 64-900-6 which is about what I will give him for 2009

 

[Banger]

.

 

[SugarNuts]

When was the last time Dallas's #1 WR, regardless of who it was, finished outside the top 15? Just curious...

When was the last time Dallas's #1 WR, regardless of who it was, finished outside the top 15? Just curious...

2004

When was the last time Dallas's #1 WR, regardless of who it was, finished outside the top 15? Just curious...

Keyshawn Johnson in 2004 was #27. Terry Glenn was #12 in 2005. Then it was Owens the next 3 years. Before Key you have to go back to Rocket Ismail in 1999 to get a top 15 WR, #13.

So you have to go back before Romo. In other words, Romo has never had a #1 WR outside the top 15, right? Sure, TO is gone, but Romo has to put up his numbers, and Roy will be the person to benefit. Thats just my opinion though. Im going with about 80/1200/8.

 

[CBower4545]

Many a poster laughed their tails off when MOP posted 50-700-5 or below last year...I can't believe I am seeing folks posting north of 1,200 yards...insane I tell you. Another WR that will be drafted way too high for my liking. I am much more intrigued with the WR2/3 in Dallas.

 

[Banger]

So you have to go back before Romo. In other words, Romo has never had a #1 WR outside the top 15, right? Sure, TO is gone, but Romo has to put up his numbers, and Roy will be the person to benefit. Thats just my opinion though. Im going with about 80/1200/8.

Romo has had TO his whole career as a starter, in '05 when Glenn was top 12 Romo wasn't the QB. Did TO make Romo? We know Romo didn't make TO and Williams <> TO so I for one can't assume he's going to step in and be able to handle the coverage and attention like TO successfully did in every town he's been in. I also can't assume that Romo and the Cowboy offense will be the same QB without TO to lean on, to make big plays, to draw coverage and open up the field. The loss of a HOF wr may be a lot larger for their entire offense than a lot of people are anticipating.

 

[SugarNuts]

So you have to go back before Romo. In other words, Romo has never had a #1 WR outside the top 15, right? Sure, TO is gone, but Romo has to put up his numbers, and Roy will be the person to benefit. Thats just my opinion though. Im going with about 80/1200/8.

Romo has had TO his whole career as a starter, in '05 when Glenn was top 12 Romo wasn't the QB. Did TO make Romo? We know Romo didn't make TO and Williams <> TO so I for one can't assume he's going to step in and be able to handle the coverage and attention like TO successfully did in every town he's been in. I also can't assume that Romo will be the same QB without TO to lean on, to make big plays, to draw coverage and open up the field. The loss of a HOF wr may be a lot larger for their entire offense than a lot of people are anticipating.

I dont think TO made Romo. I think Romo has talent that would show regardless of who the WR1 is. If I am right, we will see that this year with Roy.

 

[The Man with the Plan]

Why was he so awful with the Cowboys last season?

Why is he expected to be so good with the Cowboys this season?

 

[TS Garp]

I've already discussed/debated Williams at length in a different thread, so I won't rehash all of those comments. I see the Cowboys' offense being quite similar to the Chargers -- you'll have the TE being the #1 target (and don't forget that Dallas has an up-and-coming TE as well -- the TE's in Dallas could catch 125 balls this year) with the running backs being heavily involved in the passing game as well. I see Williams being used to stretch the field in much the same way that Vincent Jackson does, and I think you'll see him connect with Romo on some big plays. I just don't necessarily see Dallas force-feeding him the ball the way that they did with Owens , especially with an emerging WR2 in Miles Austin as well. I think Williams' production will be fairly erratic.

My prediction:

59 Receptions, 885 yards, 7 td's

I do think he has upside from there, but that's where I see him at this point.

 

[Darker Knight]

Why was he so awful with the Cowboys last season?Why is he expected to be so good with the Cowboys this season?

Well he switched teams in the middle of the season....he only played in 9 games for the Cowboys......new playbook new terminology....an entrenched #1 WR.......So the Difference for me is he should know the playbook and TO is gone

 

[a_troll00]

If Roy Williams is going to have a breakout year, then this is the year for it to happen. Let's analyze what Roy has going for him this year.

- He has a full offseason and training camp to work with Romo and the offense.

- Romo no longer has to worry about keeping TO happy, he can just run the offense now.

- A strong offensive line and running game will help keep the double teams off of Roy Williams. Michael Irvin once said the best way to deal with the double team is to rush your way out of it.

In addition, I believe we will see a strong season out of Miles Austin. If he can stay healthy and continue to be a downfield threat, then that will also help take pressure off of Roy Williams.

In short, Roy Williams is in a very good situation this season with a pretty darn good QB throwing him the ball. He's worth a third round pick IMO. He probably won't drop any further than that.

 

[gonzobill5]

Why was he so awful with the Cowboys last season?Why is he expected to be so good with the Cowboys this season?

Well he switched teams in the middle of the season....he only played in 9 games for the Cowboys......new playbook new terminology....an entrenched #1 WR.......So the Difference for me is he should know the playbook and TO is gone

Does it concern you that he showed absolutely no improvement as the season wore on? Or that he complained about his QB and his OC? Or that he flat out gave up on his routes? I'll admit that the opportunity is there in Dallas. But for the price (3rd round pick!!!), I'd wager on a different guy to jump up and grab it.

 

[munchkin]

I've already discussed/debated Williams at length in a different thread, so I won't rehash all of those comments. I see the Cowboys' offense being quite similar to the Chargers -- you'll have the TE being the #1 target (and don't forget that Dallas has an up-and-coming TE as well -- the TE's in Dallas could catch 125 balls this year) with the running backs being heavily involved in the passing game as well. I see Williams being used to stretch the field in much the same way that Vincent Jackson does, and I think you'll see him connect with Romo on some big plays. I just don't necessarily see Dallas force-feeding him the ball the way that they did with Owens , especially with an emerging WR2 in Miles Austin as well. I think Williams' production will be fairly erratic.My prediction:59 Receptions, 885 yards, 7 td'sI do think he has upside from there, but that's where I see him at this point.

He will get the opportunities, particularly early, if JJ has anything to do with it and we all know he does. Jones didn't give up all those draft picks to have Romo throw to him 6 times a game. Realistically though, the team should have a reasonable idea as to how the Romo-Williams connection will work coming out of training camp. Things do change during the season and the team has stated a desire to use the running game more this year. If the running game is as effective as one could reasonably expect, the passing game should be more efficient. I imagine Jones has visions of Williams sprinting into the end zone on the receiving end of Romo passes splattered across his mega-sized Jumbotron screen!!!!

 

[fightingillini]

Roy Williams is a tease. He has talent, but hasn't consistently put up the quality play that you would expect out of an elite receiver. He has trouble staying healthy, has a career catch % of about 52%, last year didn't record a single reception over 40 yards, and seems to disappear for stretches in games.

A lot of people might think that being in DAL will increase his production. I am not one of them. First, Jason Witten will be Romo's #1 target. Second, with Barber, Felix Jones, and Choice at RB, I see the DAL offense being much more balanced.....since Barber is a goalline stud, this will limit some of the redzone opportunities for Williams. Since he generally isn't a deep threat, most of his TDs will need to come between 10-30 yards out....so I can't see Roy scoring more than 8 TDs. I can't see him getting more than 130 targets. I have Romo throwing 500 passes this year. 130-140 targets should go to Witten, I see about 100 targets going to the RBs...which leaves about 265 targets going to the backup TEs, Roy, and the other DAL WRs. I just can't see Roy getting more than 50% of those targets. I do expect his catch % to increase slightly, since Romo is a top notch QB, but I don't see the DAL situation producing breakthrough stats for Roy Williams.

At his current ADP of WR16...I don't see enough upside or consistency to make it worth selecting him here. At this range, I want a WR to have the potential to finish in the top 10 WRs. Generally to do that, you need to either 1) catch 85+ passes or score 10+ TDs. Roy Williams has done neither of those. In 2006 he finished around WR10, and that's due to a 16.0 average, and over 150 targets. So his upside is WR10, and that's it. There are guys with a lot more upside at this ADP, like Santonio Holmes or Braylon Edwards, or guys with more consistency, like Wes Welker or TJ Houshmandzahdeh.

68 rec, 950 yards rec, 7 TD

 

[David Yudkin]

Just curious as to whether the pass/run breakdowns of the Lions and Cowboys factor into this at all.

In Williams one huge year, the Lions threw the ball almost 600 times and ran it 300 times. The Cowboys two years ago (ie when they were good), passed 530-540 times and ran 420 times.

With Owens out of the picture and limited replacement options, I'm thinking the Cowboys will run more and pass less. They are not exactly on par with a passing prolific Mike Martz offense.

 

[TaxMan]

Just curious as to whether the pass/run breakdowns of the Lions and Cowboys factor into this at all.In Williams one huge year, the Lions threw the ball almost 600 times and ran it 300 times. The Cowboys two years ago (ie when they were good), passed 530-540 times and ran 420 times. With Owens out of the picture and limited replacement options, I'm thinking the Cowboys will run more and pass less. They are not exactly on par with a passing prolific Mike Martz offense.

I think 520 pass attempts is very reasonable for Dallas potent balanced offense. 460-480 is more of a running team like PIT of last year or SD of 2-3 years ago. 550+ (NO with Brees) is more of a passing team.52-55% of the targets go to Roy and Witten ~ 280 (140 each)80-90 to Miles or whoever WR2 is (~ 50-55 rec)90 to RBs (~60 rec)50-60 to other WRs (30-40rec)

 

[Lott's Fingertip]

Just curious as to whether the pass/run breakdowns of the Lions and Cowboys factor into this at all.In Williams one huge year, the Lions threw the ball almost 600 times and ran it 300 times. The Cowboys two years ago (ie when they were good), passed 530-540 times and ran 420 times. With Owens out of the picture and limited replacement options, I'm thinking the Cowboys will run more and pass less. They are not exactly on par with a passing prolific Mike Martz offense.

While Detroit had more passing plays, they were quite a bit less efficient than the Cowboys. Dallas had about the same number of yards and more TDs than Detroit produced, despite having fewer pass attempts.Quality over quantity, I guess.We'll see if this holds up in post-Owens Dallas.

 

[Dave Larkin]

On paper, Williams' move to Big D looks great both for him and Romo. In all honesty, Williams and Romo have a lot of work to do to come close to the production that the Romo/Owens combination managed. And for fans to expect him to produce T.O. numbers would be unrealistic. What he has to do is be the number one target in Dallas.

That comes with it a whole new world of pressure. I'm not sold on Williams and until I see some positive reports from camp about his relationship with Romo developing, but it's mainly just a bad feeling I have.

That said, my projections for 2009 are:

74 rec, 1,155 yds, 8 TD

That's probably being a little optimistic.

 

[CBower4545]

On paper, Williams' move to Big D looks great both for him and Romo. In all honesty, Williams and Romo have a lot of work to do to come close to the production that the Romo/Owens combination managed. And for fans to expect him to produce T.O. numbers would be unrealistic. What he has to do is be the number one target in Dallas.

That comes with it a whole new world of pressure. I'm not sold on Williams and until I see some positive reports from camp about his relationship with Romo developing, but it's mainly just a bad feeling I have.

That said, my projections for 2009 are:

74 rec, 1,155 yds, 8 TD

That's probably being a little optimistic.

It's not like Roy is Peerless Price. He has faced double teams. He has had the pressure of being the #1 guy. I don't see how it's more difficult to do that in Dallas with better management, coaches, players, etc...

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Many a poster laughed their tails off when MOP posted 50-700-5 or below last year.

You posted he would have 64-900-6 which is about what I will give him for 2009

Whatever it was I caught a lot of slurpee spew for it.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Many a poster laughed their tails off when MOP posted 50-700-5 or below last year...I can't believe I am seeing folks posting north of 1,200 yards...insane I tell you. Another WR that will be drafted way too high for my liking. I am much more intrigued with the WR2/3 in Dallas.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

Some serious Kool Aid consumption going on up in here...

This has been argued ad naseum in a few other threads -- to summarize my views:

1.) Roy has one 1000 yard year out of five.

2.) Roy has played 16 games one time in five years.

3.) TO made the Cowboys' passing game, and Tony Romo in particular, look at least somewhat better than is the actual case.

4.) Kitna, while no Pro Bowler, was not terrible at all in Detroit.

5.) Roy was outplayed handily by Shaun McDonald and Mike Furrey in Detroit.

6.) The Martz "throw every play" system in Detroit was likely more conducive to big WR numbers than the Cowboys system in 2009, which will be more run centered.

7.) Jason Witten is th best receiver in Dallas, particularly in the red zone.

8.) Roy's catches, yards, YPC, and TDs have all gone down two years running from his peak in 2006.

55-60 catches, 750-800 yards, 5ish TDs is a good baseline for Roy. I won't own him in any league, obviously.

 

[Tanner9919]

Williams highest FF finish as a WR was in 2006 when he finished 10th and that was for a team that finished 2nd in the league in pass attempts with 596 and dead last in rushing attempts. 2006 was also a year where Williams had his highest YPC. Now he's going to an offense that will run more and throw less then that magical 2006 season he had in Mike Martz system. Another mark on Williams is he has a problem staying on the field. For these reason's I don't see Williams being a top 10 player.65-930-7 (Good for about 20-25th)

I agree..Williams did nothing last season with T.O. on the field, so why should we think he'll explode this season now that T.O. is gone ? I don't see it. Williams has gone over 80 catches in a single season only once in his career..I think Witten benefits the most from the departure of T.O. , not Williams..and Dallas seems to be switching to a run-first type of offense..T.O. avg'd just 78 catches/yr while in Dallas, not a chance that Roy Williams gets close to repeating those numbers..factoring in the Roy Williams injuries ( because we know they're coming)60/780/5..avg 13 ypc. or in other words, Steve-Smith-NYG type of numbers.

 

[Patoons]

Wow... I'm utterly shocked at some of the high end projections here. Granted Dallas has a decent running game and a decent QB, but there are some MONSTER projections in here. Roy has been too inconsistent and when he finally gets things going, he inevitably gets injured.

Witten is definitely the #1 guy in Dallas, don't think it's Roy. I can see Austin/Crayton outproducing Williams this year.

Put me down for 55-750 4 TDs as his ceiling this year.

 

[David Yudkin]

Williams has averaged 58.3 receiving yds and 0.43 TD per game over his career. That works out to 933 yards and 7 TD over a full season.

Should he be expected to do better or worse than his career averages going from DET to DAL? I get that the number of games he will play in is open for debate as well . . .

 

[Coeur de Lion]

Should he be expected to do better or worse than his career averages going from DET to DAL?

Well he goes from being by far the best option on a team that threw the ball an absolute ton to maybe the 3rd option (behind whichever RB is in and Witten) ona team that should be pretty evenly balanced between run and pass. I see no reason to give him any kind of bump up.

 

[Lott's Fingertip]

Wow... I'm utterly shocked at some of the high end projections here. Granted Dallas has a decent running game and a decent QB, but there are some MONSTER projections in here. Roy has been too inconsistent and when he finally gets things going, he inevitably gets injured.

Witten is definitely the #1 guy in Dallas, don't think it's Roy. I can see Austin/Crayton outproducing Williams this year.

Put me down for 55-750 4 TDs as his ceiling this year.

That's his CEILING?

That is 103 fantasy points. He has exceeded that in 4 out of 5 seasons, last year being the exception. 3 of those 4 season he played in 12-14 games and still exceeded that.

That is an absurb ceiling.