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Player Spotlight: Rudi Johnson (1 Viewer)

Jason Wood

Zoo York
2008 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. Last year, we published more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters. This year will be no different.

Each week we will post a list of players to be discussed. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discussion expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Rudi Johnson, RB, Cincinnati Bengals

Player Page Link: Rudi Johnson Player Page

Each article will include:

Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads
FBG Projections
Consensus Member ProjectionsThe Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

Focus commentary on the player in question, and your expectations for said player
Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
To be included in the final synopsis and consensus outlook, you MUST provide projections for the playerProjections should include (at a minimum):

For QBs: Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDsNow let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

 
because of their versatility, the team has to take a long look at Chris Perry and Watson..Perry , in particular, Perry might be a sleeper candidate if he can remain injury free..

Can't imagine Rudi getting 300+ carries again, they team invested a lot of $$ and a high draft pick on Perry and at some point they need to see what he's worth, good or bad..at worst, its a RBBC with Perry, Watson, rudi, et al.

Rudi

120/456/3

 
Rudi Johnson is a bounce-back player in 2008. 1 bad injury plagued year won't make me forget about 3 1/2 seasons of fantasy success. He's still good and the offensive talent around him is still good. His handcuff in Kenny Watson who played very well last season should come pretty cheap as well so either way the Bengals RB should be a good fantasy choice.

 
We can all make assumptions about what's going to happen in Cincinnati's running game, who's actually better etc..., but Rudi Johnson has been the No.1 guy when healthy and we haven't heard anything different out of Cinci stating anything different. However, 2 years ago Johnson dipped below 4.0 yards per carry and followed that up last year by actually running below 3 yards per carry. I just don't see him coming back to the player we saw 2 or 3 years ago and there's a slight decline in ability to go along with the injuries.

Still, it's a dicey situation in trying to predict exactly what's going to happen. Grabbing the right guy in this situation can instantly make your team playoff material as you'll get a guy later in the draft who will produce starting fantasy numbers.

Rudi Johnson: 500 yards and 6 td's 10 receptions for 99 yards

Kenny Watson 700yards and 6 td's, 45 receptions for 380 yards and 1 td

Perry: 220 yards with zero Td's, 21 receptions for 140 yards and zero td's

I think drafting Watson late in the draft in PPR leagues is the way I'm going for now.

 
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Used and abused, crash n burn, and no thanks - he's approaching that falling-off-a-cliff thing that RBs tend to do, if he isn't there already. No way is he on my team because someone in the league will feel as people above do and (IMO) overpay.

 
I wrote this in another thread, but I think Rudi will be a catalyst for many FF championship teams this year. He is coming off an injury-plagued season where he only managed paltry 2.9 yards/carry. Rudi has very few touches thus far on his NFL career (1550) and basically took off the first two years of his NFL career as he sat behind Corey Dillon. Rudi is being treated like he is Shaun Alexander (two years declining production, 2400 touches) and that is a mistake that will cost owners dearly. I project the following for Rudi:

300 carries for 1250 yards, 8 TDs; 19 receptions for 117 yards, 0 TDs

 
Fact: Rudi Johnson is younger than LaDainian Tomlinson

Fact: On the active list, Rudi Johnson is 10th in terms of carry workload (and this does not count guys like Alexander, Travis Henry who both have more than Johnson)

Fact: From 2004-2006 Rudi Johnson carried 87.2% of the Bengal RB workload. Translated, every 8 carries a Bengal RB got, Johnson received 7 of them. During those years, Bengal RB's carried the ball an average of 397 times/year (that number dipped to 376 in '07).

Where am I going with this. Basically, there is still tread left on Johnson's tires. He had an injury plagued campaign in 2007, but the primary injury he suffered was fairly benign when compared to torn ACL's and lisfranc sprains that other players have come back from.

Alot of people are spooked by RBBC type talk eminating from Cincy as well. Let's say that instead of 7 out of 8 ratio, Lewis/Bratkowski say "Rudi, you're only getting the ball 5 out of every 8 times". That's still a 250 carry workload for Johnson. I think that's the absolute minimum that you'll see Johnson carry the ball with a workload of 275-280 carries a more realistic target.

Why? Because this was pretty much the situation that they employed last year after Johnson got hurt. In the 10 games Johnson played (not counting one where he came too back too early and only had 4 carries), Kenny Watson accumulated 51 carries; 5 per game...Let's say you take the first 2 games away when Johnson was clearly the unquestioned workhorse, it's still around 6.5 carries/game.

So I believe this to be the type of RBBC situation you'll see in Cincy. They'll be more cognizant of the need to monitor Johnson, but at 100%, he's still the best RB on the roster. Johnson will get between 17-18 carries/game and Watson/Perry/Dorsey will clean up with an additional 7-8/game. With a renewed focus and chip on his shoulder, I think you'll see Johnson creep up above the 4 YPC clip again.

Prediction: 281 Carries, 1155 Rushing Yards 10 TD's, 21 Receptions 117 Receiving Yards 0 TD's

 
I also think that Rudi Johnson will have a solid bounce back year, but I doubt that he is the every down back for the Bengals and that is where his value will slip. The team found out about the versatility of Kenny Watson (52 receptions) in 07 and they also would like to see what Chris Perry can do (if healthy). I think that the FBG projections are close to dead on and just don't see the value offered by Rudi in 08.

Rudi Johnson 200 carries 820 yards 4.1ypc 6 TDs and 6 catches for 45 yards and 0 TDs

 
From the obscure stat file . . .

Rudi is one of 15 RB to have logged 1000+ carries over a 3-year period. Including guys that did it more than once or had overlapping seasons, there were 36 such instances. In terms of total fantasy points, Johnson ranked 30th of 36th.

Only two guys had more than 1100 . . . Terrell Davis with 1106 and Earl Campbell 1102.

 
According to bengals.com, they plan to use a committee approach, with Rudi as the lead dog. Injury or not, his YPC has decreased for 3 straight seasons, he's 29, and he had 3 straight seasons with 330+carries. He gives the Bengals a certain toughness that they otherwise completely lack. I'm sure he'll be the leading candidate for any goal line work. But still, it's telling that they drafted Irons--if he and Perry can get healthy, I'm sure the team would love to see what they have in one of those.

244 Carries

952 Yards

12 TDs

21 Receptions

130 Yards

I've heard he's going in the 6th round, if that's the case, I think he'll represent good value, a heck of a RB3.

 

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