Player Spotlight: Tarvaris Jackson (1 Viewer)

[Jason Wood]

2008 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. Last year, we published more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters. This year will be no different.

Each week we will post a list of players to be discussed. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discussion expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Tarvaris Jackson, QB, Minnesota Vikings

Player Page Link: Tarvaris Jackson Player Page

Each article will include:

Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads
FBG Projections
Consensus Member ProjectionsThe Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

Focus commentary on the player in question, and your expectations for said player
Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
To be included in the final synopsis and consensus outlook, you MUST provide projections for the playerProjections should include (at a minimum):

For QBs: Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDsNow let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

 

[rzrback77]

Everbody is so stoked about the possibilities of the upcoming season for Tarvaris Jackson that it is almost a week after his spotlight thread and not a soul has replied. Everybody knows that T Jax has only two assignments. Hand the ball to ADP and get out of the way. But, hold on a minute. A quick review of last season's stats revealed that the Vikings actually passed 427 times and ran 397. That is not a huge passing percentage, but at 51.8% it is definitely higher than I expected.

The Vikings have added a nice free agent WR, Bernard Berrian and last year's talented rookie, Sidney Rice looks to take another step forward. Jackson himself is very athletic and has a very strong arm. He hails from Alabama State, but originally signed and played a little at Arkansas, where they have made an art form out of running off talented QBs. Last season, Jackson completed 58.2% of his attempts for 6.5 ypa, but he added 260 rushing yards and 3 TDs.

You can definitely wait on him a while as his current ADP is QB25 and 194 overall, being drafted just one round ahead of rookie Matt Ryan. His best case could be fairly nice and as stated in the QBBC article, he has a very favorable schedule for those that follow that.

T Jackson 266 completions in 440 attempts for 2,948 yards 6.7 ypa for 18 TDs and 18 ints adding 170 rush yds and 3 TDs

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

This guy is going to be so underrated this year.

There's no one vying for his job, he can run the ball himself, he has two explosive WRs and 2 RBs that can both catch out of the backfield and also take it to the house...... all that's really missing is a good TE. He even has a stellar defense that can get him a short field - and he plays on a fast track.

Really, as long as he makes decent decisions, what isn't to like?

3000 yards passing, 230-400, 17 TD, 14 INT, 70-420 rushing, 4 TD.

Based on ADP alone (not the RB, draft picking) I'd take him all day long over VY.

 

[Chase Stuart]

This guy is going to be so underrated this year.There's no one vying for his job, he can run the ball himself, he has two explosive WRs and 2 RBs that can both catch out of the backfield and also take it to the house...... all that's really missing is a good TE. He even has a stellar defense that can get him a short field - and he plays on a fast track.Really, as long as he makes decent decisions, what isn't to like?3000 yards passing, 230-400, 17 TD, 14 INT, 70-420 rushing, 4 TD.Based on ADP alone (not the RB, draft picking) I'd take him all day long over VY.

3,000 yards is a bit high -- I'd say 2750 on the same 400 attempts. I like your other projections a lot.

 

[ScottyFargo]

This guy is going to be so underrated this year.There's no one vying for his job, he can run the ball himself, he has two explosive WRs and 2 RBs that can both catch out of the backfield and also take it to the house...... all that's really missing is a good TE. He even has a stellar defense that can get him a short field - and he plays on a fast track.Really, as long as he makes decent decisions, what isn't to like?3000 yards passing, 230-400, 17 TD, 14 INT, 70-420 rushing, 4 TD.Based on ADP alone (not the RB, draft picking) I'd take him all day long over VY.

“It’s like night and day,” Jackson said. “Compared to this time last year, I feel like a whole different quarterback, really. Running plays, poised, knowing the system, and just being more confident. ... Things are much slower. I’m seeing things a lot better.”

Tarvaris quoted over recent minicamp.To note about Berrian, Rice, and Allison/Wade: These guys are going to be playing at the positions where they will be most able to capitolize on their abilities. Rice will be more effective in his second year, Berrian will be able to take advantage of single coverage, and Wade or Allison will be able to play out of the slot which is a much better role for either of them. You hit the nail on the head on the Tarvaris Vs. Vince Young front. He's being taught to "let go" more. He threw far too many INT's last year, and Childress is trying to curb that before it starts this year by instructing him how to toss balls away effectively so they don't turn into INTs. I believe he'll look much different this year than he did last.

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

This guy is going to be so underrated this year.There's no one vying for his job, he can run the ball himself, he has two explosive WRs and 2 RBs that can both catch out of the backfield and also take it to the house...... all that's really missing is a good TE. He even has a stellar defense that can get him a short field - and he plays on a fast track.Really, as long as he makes decent decisions, what isn't to like?3000 yards passing, 230-400, 17 TD, 14 INT, 70-420 rushing, 4 TD.Based on ADP alone (not the RB, draft picking) I'd take him all day long over VY.

3,000 yards is a bit high -- I'd say 2750 on the same 400 attempts. I like your other projections a lot.

Well, considering the big play ability of his 3 primary targets (Rice, Berrian, ADP), I would think that 7.5 YPA is a reasonable number.

 

[jonboltz]

This guy is going to be so underrated this year.There's no one vying for his job, he can run the ball himself, he has two explosive WRs and 2 RBs that can both catch out of the backfield and also take it to the house...... all that's really missing is a good TE. He even has a stellar defense that can get him a short field - and he plays on a fast track.Really, as long as he makes decent decisions, what isn't to like?3000 yards passing, 230-400, 17 TD, 14 INT, 70-420 rushing, 4 TD.Based on ADP alone (not the RB, draft picking) I'd take him all day long over VY.

3,000 yards is a bit high -- I'd say 2750 on the same 400 attempts. I like your other projections a lot.

Well, considering the big play ability of his 3 primary targets (Rice, Berrian, ADP), I would think that 7.5 YPA is a reasonable number.

Here is a list of a few of the people that didn't hit 7.5 ypa last year:CutlerAndersonPalmerHasselbeckBreesI can't even think of a value of money I would wage that he doesn't hit 7.5 this year... 7.0 would be a great start for him.

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

This guy is going to be so underrated this year.There's no one vying for his job, he can run the ball himself, he has two explosive WRs and 2 RBs that can both catch out of the backfield and also take it to the house...... all that's really missing is a good TE. He even has a stellar defense that can get him a short field - and he plays on a fast track.Really, as long as he makes decent decisions, what isn't to like?3000 yards passing, 230-400, 17 TD, 14 INT, 70-420 rushing, 4 TD.Based on ADP alone (not the RB, draft picking) I'd take him all day long over VY.

3,000 yards is a bit high -- I'd say 2750 on the same 400 attempts. I like your other projections a lot.

Well, considering the big play ability of his 3 primary targets (Rice, Berrian, ADP), I would think that 7.5 YPA is a reasonable number.

Here is a list of a few of the people that didn't hit 7.5 ypa last year:CutlerAndersonPalmerHasselbeckBreesI can't even think of a value of money I would wage that he doesn't hit 7.5 this year... 7.0 would be a great start for him.

- thanks for checking that. Not used to doing that statistical check. I'll restate it then at 7.0 and say 2800 yards - which now falls in line with Chase.

 

[FunkyPlutos]

This guy is going to be so underrated this year.There's no one vying for his job, he can run the ball himself, he has two explosive WRs and 2 RBs that can both catch out of the backfield and also take it to the house...... all that's really missing is a good TE. He even has a stellar defense that can get him a short field - and he plays on a fast track.Really, as long as he makes decent decisions, what isn't to like?3000 yards passing, 230-400, 17 TD, 14 INT, 70-420 rushing, 4 TD.Based on ADP alone (not the RB, draft picking) I'd take him all day long over VY.

I agree with all of these. Maybe the INTs will be a bit higher, but I do like him to be a good value. He was QB20 last year only playing 12 games, and without much at the WR position. Solid bye week fill in, with decent upside.

 

[Jon_Moore]

In the 2nd half of last year, Jackson had a QB rating of 82.9 and a completion % of 65.2. That screams of a dramatic improvement. He also only averaged 5.5 ypa in the 1st half of the season--7.1 in the 2nd half. It's interesting to note--in those same 7 games--Peterson missed 1, and only averaged 3.8 YPC in the rest. So, even though Peterson wasn't dominating, Jackson was still improving considerably. He moved around alot more in the 2nd half. He had 41 Rushing attempts compared to 13, so perhaps that's what helped open it up for him. Teams are still going to stack the box for Peterson, and Jackson's still going to move around. Look for a dramatic improvement in stats this season.

263/424

2883 Yards

19 TDs

16 Int's

88 Rushes

440 Rushing Yards

4 Tds

 

[TheDirtyWord]

I've got to admit, when I saw that this thread basically went untouched until last night - I hadn't even taken note. But I like some of the points that were made about Jackson and I think he's the type of player that most will breeze over as an ineffectual player to have on your roster. But he has QB2 written all over him and you'll be able to get him late.

1) As has been pointed out, Jackson's first half versus second half performance (approximate) showed significant improvement.

2) Bringing in Bernard Berrian gives Jackson a better weapon at receiver than he's had and another year of development for Sidney Rice could make this a much more potent group.

3) The Vikings only passes 48.7% of the time in 2007. It's not inconceivable to see that figure move up a couple of points higher and with the improvements made on defense, the Vikings should increase their offensive play total which was 964.

The on thing I see with these projections is that noone sees the Vikings accumulating more than 440 pass attempts with most thinking that number tops out at 400. But looking at his last 7 games which seems to be the cause for optimism here, his pace would have put him at about 421 - and that was without his own improvement in addition to the improvement of his weapons. I'm not predicting great things for Jackson, but he appears to be under-the-radar significantly which provides for great opportunity.

Prediction: 266 Completions 442 Attempts 60.2% Completion Rate, 7.18 YPA, 3129 Passing Yards 19 TD's 14 INT's - 82 rushes 371 Rushing Yards 4 TD's.

 

[Flea Flicker]

This guy is going to be so underrated this year.There's no one vying for his job, he can run the ball himself, he has two explosive WRs and 2 RBs that can both catch out of the backfield and also take it to the house...... all that's really missing is a good TE. He even has a stellar defense that can get him a short field - and he plays on a fast track.Really, as long as he makes decent decisions, what isn't to like?3000 yards passing, 230-400, 17 TD, 14 INT, 70-420 rushing, 4 TD.Based on ADP alone (not the RB, draft picking) I'd take him all day long over VY.

My sentiments exactly, right down to the statline projection even. I think the quibble point here is how to predict Jackson's rushing stats. QB rushing seems highly variable year to year, and based on individual league scoring, it can have a huge impact as to whether Jackson could be QB12 or QB22. Regardless, Jackson is going to be underrated in drafts this summer.

 

[Andy Dufresne]

I think the predictions of roughly 3000/20/15 are pretty close.

Think Jay Cutler or Philip Rivers from last year.