Player Spotlight: Ted Ginn & Greg Camarillo (1 Viewer)

[Jason Wood]

2009 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. Last year, we published more than 120 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters. This year will be no different.

Each week we will post a list of players to be discussed. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discussion expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Ted Ginn & Greg Camarillo, WRs, Miami Dolphins

Player Page Link: Ted Ginn Player Page

Player Page Link: Greg Camarillo Player Page

Each article will include:

Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads
FBG Projections
Consensus Member ProjectionsThe Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

Focus commentary on the player in question, and your expectations for said player
Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
To be included in the final synopsis and consensus outlook, you MUST provide projections for the playerProjections should include (at a minimum):

For QBs: Attempts, Completions, Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDsNow let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

 

[rzrback77]

The call between Camarillo and Ginn will be played out in training camp as the evidence comes in on whether Camarillo is healed from his knee injury last year.

Ted Ginn improved his productivity in his second year wiht an increase of 22 targets from 71 to 93. Evven better, he also increased his number of receptions by 22. His yardage jumped huge from 420 to 790, as his ypa went from 12.4 all the way to 14.1, even with weak armed Chad Pennington. Camarillo on the other hand was a great fit for the Dolphins and Pennington averaging 5 catches per game prior to his injury in week 12. The other consideration is that Devone Bess averaged 8 targets per game after Camarillo was injured. Will there be room for all three or will the Dolphins even pass enough to produce one reliable WR for fantasy?

One of Camarillo or Ginn would be a nice producer, but not both and possibly neither if Bess is also kept in the mix. Ginn is the leading candidate for dynasty upside, but if Camarillo is able to start from the get-go, he would be my preference for 09 in a ppr league. I'll project based on Camarillo fully recovered. The obvious value play with my projections is Camarillo as his ADP is WR68 vs. the ADP of Ginn as WR39 and 110 overall.

Camarillo 120 targets 82 catches 904 yards 11.0 ypc and 4 TDs

Ted Ginn 115 targets 65 catches 878 yards 13.5 ypc and 4 TDs

D. Bess 65 targets 48 catches 504 yards 10.5 ypc and 1 TD

 

[big0mar]

Personally I feel Pat Turner is going to be the Dolphins leading WR

 

[Jason Wood]

Fascinating that so many people voted for these guys [or in Camarillo's case wrote in] and yet the responses are this sparse. To those of you who called out Camarillo specifically [there were at least four or five of you], let's hear why you think he deserves our attention.

 

[rzrback77]

Its a tough call. I would guess that folks are interested in others opinions, but really don't have a solid one themselves.

 

[DarkManX]

Ginn is coming into his 3rd year, which tends to be a breakout year for WRs but can he really excel with Pennington at QB and the emergence of Camarillo last yr?

Another year in the system he should improve somewhat on last yrs stats.

68catches 13.9avg 945yds 5tds.

 

[Chicago Hooligan]

I like Ginn as a WR4 this year. A guest article on Football Outsiders "determined" that he was a good candidate to show improvement this season. It's a better read than the url/title might suggest -

http://footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis...rd-year-wr-rule

The section with Ginn and other players for this year is at the end.

 

[massraider]

I would feel a lot better about Ginn's value if Pennington had the confidence/arm to throw the ball more than 15 yards down the field.

Camarillo is coming off an ACL, yet people seem to be ignoring that. Davonne Bess is the real value here, IMO. Did a great job for a UDFA last year, is real quick, and if Camarillo isn't 100%, he might wind up being the #2 receiver for the Fins.

 

[WFR]

If Henne takes over does Ginn's value increase much?

They are both on the FA wire and I am considering picking them up in my dynasty league.

 

[Todem]

If Henne takes over at some point this season (and that is only if we are really long out of the playoff picture...this is Chad's team) then Ginn's value will rise higher especially going into 2010.

Bess is the best play in PPR over Camarillo if he is not 100%. I know he is ahead of schedule but it was a week 12 injury and let's see what happens when he needs to cut hard on the knee and some set backs start to prop up. I hope he makes it back because he was a very valuable asset to the team.

Projections for the main weapons in the Fins passing game other than Ronnie Brown.

Ginn - 72 receptions 950 yards 7 TD's ( I see him breaking some big plays this season 4-5 of those will be long runs for you distance leagues)

Bess - 70 receptions 700 yards 2 TD's

Camarillo - 45 receptions 405 yards 0 TD's

Fasano - 60 recpetions 675 yards 8 TD's

And for those who are eyeing Patrick Turner.....it is very hard to say at this point. they want him as a red zone target but let's see if he can even get on the field.

 

[tdmills]

Ginn is coming into his 3rd year, which tends to be a breakout year for WRs but can he really excel with Pennington at QB and the emergence of Camarillo last yr?Another year in the system he should improve somewhat on last yrs stats.68catches 13.9avg 945yds 5tds.

Ginn is not quick enough with those long strides to ever be a productive #1 or #2 WR. He is simply a return man and a gimmick/deep ball player.

 

[massraider]

Ginn is coming into his 3rd year, which tends to be a breakout year for WRs but can he really excel with Pennington at QB and the emergence of Camarillo last yr?Another year in the system he should improve somewhat on last yrs stats.68catches 13.9avg 945yds 5tds.

Ginn is not quick enough with those long strides to ever be a productive #1 or #2 WR. He is simply a return man and a gimmick/deep ball player.

Didn't watch the Fins last year, huh?

 

[tdmills]

Ginn is coming into his 3rd year, which tends to be a breakout year for WRs but can he really excel with Pennington at QB and the emergence of Camarillo last yr?Another year in the system he should improve somewhat on last yrs stats.68catches 13.9avg 945yds 5tds.

Ginn is not quick enough with those long strides to ever be a productive #1 or #2 WR. He is simply a return man and a gimmick/deep ball player.

Didn't watch the Fins last year, huh?

He didn't change....the Phins best WR is Bess IMO. Ginn isn't quick....and he had home run balls... he has those long strides and looks wierd stopping and starting.

 

[Todem]

Ginn is coming into his 3rd year, which tends to be a breakout year for WRs but can he really excel with Pennington at QB and the emergence of Camarillo last yr?Another year in the system he should improve somewhat on last yrs stats.68catches 13.9avg 945yds 5tds.

Ginn is not quick enough with those long strides to ever be a productive #1 or #2 WR. He is simply a return man and a gimmick/deep ball player.

Didn't watch the Fins last year, huh?

He didn't change....the Phins best WR is Bess IMO. Ginn isn't quick....and he had home run balls... he has those long strides and looks wierd stopping and starting.

No one will see Ginns true upside until the change at QB happens in the next 2 years. I remember seeing him run free numerous times deep and the ball was not thrown to him. He is open often on the deep routes.

 

[massraider]

Ginn is coming into his 3rd year, which tends to be a breakout year for WRs but can he really excel with Pennington at QB and the emergence of Camarillo last yr?Another year in the system he should improve somewhat on last yrs stats.68catches 13.9avg 945yds 5tds.

Ginn is not quick enough with those long strides to ever be a productive #1 or #2 WR. He is simply a return man and a gimmick/deep ball player.

Didn't watch the Fins last year, huh?

He didn't change....the Phins best WR is Bess IMO. Ginn isn't quick....and he had home run balls... he has those long strides and looks wierd stopping and starting.

Sorry for the smart-#### remark.Ginn caught quite a few short passes last year. I mean, he had Penny as his QB, so God knows he wasn't catching bombs. I don't think he's #1 material, but with a QB that can keep defenses honest, he can be a very good #2. JMO.

 

[DarkManX]

Ginn is coming into his 3rd year, which tends to be a breakout year for WRs but can he really excel with Pennington at QB and the emergence of Camarillo last yr?Another year in the system he should improve somewhat on last yrs stats.68catches 13.9avg 945yds 5tds.

Ginn is not quick enough with those long strides to ever be a productive #1 or #2 WR. He is simply a return man and a gimmick/deep ball player.

Its all personal opinion, the man can get open deep and fair enough Pennington doesnt have a great arm but he gets open, go and watch the highlights of him vs the Bills from last season. He averaged 14.1 a catch last yr and I can easily see him catching 10more balls this year, hence my projections. Where are your projections?

 

[dickey moe]

Fascinating that so many people voted for these guys [or in Camarillo's case wrote in] and yet the responses are this sparse. To those of you who called out Camarillo specifically [there were at least four or five of you], let's hear why you think he deserves our attention.

He was shaping up to be the "Wes Welker" of last season in PPR leagues prior to his injury. Love the targets he was getting prior to injury. If he's fully healed, I think he could be great value this year in later rounds. I'll be targeting him in all my drafts unless news comes out that his knee is still bad (or he's otherwise not likely to start).

 

[brutha]

Ginn is coming into his 3rd year, which tends to be a breakout year for WRs but can he really excel with Pennington at QB and the emergence of Camarillo last yr?Another year in the system he should improve somewhat on last yrs stats.68catches 13.9avg 945yds 5tds.

Ginn is not quick enough with those long strides to ever be a productive #1 or #2 WR. He is simply a return man and a gimmick/deep ball player.

Didn't watch the Fins last year, huh?

He didn't change....the Phins best WR is Bess IMO. Ginn isn't quick....and he had home run balls... he has those long strides and looks wierd stopping and starting.

dude I hear you, no way would I draft a WR who has long strides and looks weird. face it these guys are all a coin flip you get late in a draft but I think Ginn definitely has the best shot of upside.

 

[tdmills]

Ginn is coming into his 3rd year, which tends to be a breakout year for WRs but can he really excel with Pennington at QB and the emergence of Camarillo last yr?Another year in the system he should improve somewhat on last yrs stats.68catches 13.9avg 945yds 5tds.

Ginn is not quick enough with those long strides to ever be a productive #1 or #2 WR. He is simply a return man and a gimmick/deep ball player.

Its all personal opinion, the man can get open deep and fair enough Pennington doesnt have a great arm but he gets open, go and watch the highlights of him vs the Bills from last season. He averaged 14.1 a catch last yr and I can easily see him catching 10more balls this year, hence my projections. Where are your projections?

Vs. the Bills...come on. Go back and look at the film of any RB vs browns/lions/rams and tell me how good they looked.

 

[PlasmaDogPlasma]

They sure looked at Ginn a lot in the first quarter of the first preseason game.

 

[Raider Nation]

They sure looked at Ginn a lot in the first quarter of the first preseason game.

Watching it on NFLN now. Amazing. Seems like every throw targets him. An end-around too.

 

[Couch Potato]

They sure looked at Ginn a lot in the first quarter of the first preseason game.

Watching it on NFLN now. Amazing. Seems like every throw targets him. An end-around too.

On the first series, Bess - Bess.On the second series, it was Bess - Ginn - Ginn - Ginn - Bess.Third series, Ginn (penalty, no play) - Ginn - Ginn.Four passes to Bess, six (five if you don't count the no-play) to Ginn.After that, they came out and others came in.I see nothing listed for Camarillo in the play-by-play, so I guess he sat this one out.

 

[Michael Fox Fan]

Any update from Dolphin homers? Who is the guy to own in Miami this year?

 

[Our Gang]

Ginn is the guy to own. He is the clear-cut #1 on this team. Many fans are freaking out that Ginn has only a few catches this offseason. Here is the quote from Sparano:

(On if he would like to see Ted Ginn have more receptions during this preseason) – “No, I told you guys last week that you were going to ask that question eventually, so I mean Ted Ginn right now has a lot more receptions now than he did last year at this time. I would say to you, well the game really didn’t dictate that last week, we threw him one or two balls maybe his way. Nah, I’m fine with where he is in the game right now.”

 

[jfranco77]

I'm starting to see Camarillo picked more than Bess... is Camarillo locking up the WR2 job? Lots of checkdowns from Chad in a PPR league...

 

[Ilov80s]

I think Ginn has the goods, but I hate his QB situation. Ginn was targeted 93 times and caught 56 of those balls. Thats 60% which is right where you would want a starting NFL WR to be. I think he'll see an increase in targets to somewhere around 120 at 14 ypr, he should crack 1,000. Getting TDs will be the tough part.

 

[prefontaine]

I think Ginn has the goods, but I hate his QB situation. Ginn was targeted 93 times and caught 56 of those balls. Thats 60% which is right where you would want a starting NFL WR to be. I think he'll see an increase in targets to somewhere around 120 at 14 ypr, he should crack 1,000. Getting TDs will be the tough part.

This would be a pretty big jump in targets (33%). What about the Dolphins situation makes you think Ginn is in line for that more? I haven't been paying enough attention there.

 

[IHEARTFF]

Ginn is the 1

Hartline is the 2.

Bess in the slot is the 3.

Camarillo is the 4.

Although 2-4 are still up for grabs. Ginn is probably the only one worth playing in a redraft.

 

[jurb26]

I think Ginn has the goods, but I hate his QB situation. Ginn was targeted 93 times and caught 56 of those balls. Thats 60% which is right where you would want a starting NFL WR to be. I think he'll see an increase in targets to somewhere around 120 at 14 ypr, he should crack 1,000. Getting TDs will be the tough part.

I'm a huge Ginn supporter (have been even before he was drafted) and I own him on both my dynasty teams. I've pretty much conceded to the fact that Ginn's targets and production will be a good amount bellow his potential/ability until Henne is the starting QB. Pennington just doesn't have the arm to target Ginn on his deep routes. This will likely happen next year, not this year IMO. Buy Ginn on the cheap for one more season.

 

[prefontaine]

I think Ginn has the goods, but I hate his QB situation. Ginn was targeted 93 times and caught 56 of those balls. Thats 60% which is right where you would want a starting NFL WR to be. I think he'll see an increase in targets to somewhere around 120 at 14 ypr, he should crack 1,000. Getting TDs will be the tough part.

I'm a huge Ginn supporter (have been even before he was drafted) and I own him on both my dynasty teams. I've pretty much conceded to the fact that Ginn's targets and production will be a good amount bellow his potential/ability until Henne is the starting QB. Pennington just doesn't have the arm to target Ginn on his deep routes. This will likely happen next year, not this year IMO. Buy Ginn on the cheap for one more season.

This has been my sort of thinking on Ginn. I look at it a bit like Marvin Harrison early in his career (not saying Ginn will be Harrison). He put up decent numbers for a few years and then Peyton Manning came to town and he had the arm to make use of Harrison's speed. Their first year together, Harrison got hurt but he was on pace for a pretty good year. Then year 2 he broke out huge. It also helped that they drafted Edge that year so their whole offense exploded. Right now, as I look at the Dolphins, they look just like last year to me. They were creative and better than I expected but almost nothing changed. And while players grow and I think Ginn will, I don't see what changed in the overall situation to make him all that much more relevant for this year. But like I said above, I haven't been paying much attention to the Phins and I'm sort of just assuming everyone will be about the same as last year.