Player Spotlight: Todd Heap (1 Viewer)

[Jason Wood]

2008 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. Last year, we published more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters. This year will be no different.

Each week we will post a list of players to be discussed. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discussion expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Todd Heap, TE, Baltimore Ravens

Player Page Link: Todd Heap Player Page

Each article will include:

Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads
FBG Projections
Consensus Member ProjectionsThe Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

Focus commentary on the player in question, and your expectations for said player
Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
To be included in the final synopsis and consensus outlook, you MUST provide projections for the playerProjections should include (at a minimum):

For QBs: Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDsNow let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

 

[Iwannabeacowboybaby!]

Todd Heap quickly became an elite TE in this league, allowing the Ravens to originally get rid of S. Sharpe after they won their SB. Heap has been the Ravens primary target over the years, especially on 3rd down. However, I don't think I've seen a TE take more brutal hits in the past 5 years or so as Todd Heap, probably because defenses figured out who was getting the ball on 3rd and long.

The Baltimore offense is poor and it's hard to imagine that the passing game is going to be much improved from last season. I am not 100 percent sure Heap is as good now as he was 3 years ago but he should provide a safety net for what probably will be an inexperienced QB.

60 receptions for 700 yards with 3 td's

 

[The Man with the Plan]

Todd Heap is a very good player who was hurt last season (missed 10 games). Assuming that he's healthy (so far there's no reason to think otherwise) I expect him to return to form and have a solid season. When healthy he's one of the best at the tight end position in the NFL.

 

[the spanker]

No projections?

 

[The Man with the Plan]

No projections?

Assuming a return to form he'll probably put up a typical Todd Heap season. Anywhere from 65-75 catches, 750-850 yards and 6 touchdowns or so.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

The QB siutation is very fluid right now to say the least. I think all owners are worried that if they draft Todd heap they are going to go thru the same thing he has done in 2 seperate seasons where he misses most of the season. A new offense is being installed, so we don't know exactly how heap will be used.

I would be cautious in projctions for him.

56/600/5 TD would be a decent bounce back season.

 

[MAC_32]

A new offense is being installed, so we don't know exactly how heap will be used.

From what I've read Heap is being planned to be the center piece of the passing game, whatever that means. If healthy I expect similar production to prior years, based on where he's being drafted I'm buying.

 

[travdogg]

I think Heap is going to be the biggest value of the season this year. The passing game will be built around him and he should be a major redzone weapon.

Cam loves his TE's. Even Martin/Peelle last year put up 500-4. Heap is still one of the 5 most talented TE's in the league IMO.

80-1,000-8

 

[rzrback77]

Todd Heap has an injury reputation that rivals Fred Taylor in his early days. Fact is that he has played 16 games in four of the past six seasons. When he's missed games though, he's missed a lot. He only played in six games in 04 and again last season. But, on to the good news. In those four years when he played all sixteen games, he finished in the top four every year, including one season as TE #1. He is a very god receiver and he has averaged 11.5 ypc over his career.

More good news, the Baltimore Raven offense is supposed to open up in 08 and Heap has been productive in pre-season workouts. I think that the Ravens pass the ball a lot in 08 and Heap is one of their top targets. I see a very good year in store for him. Very solid bargain as his current ADP is TE #7 and 89 overall.

Todd Heap 135 targets 85 catches 977 yards 11.5 ypc and 6 TDs

 

[mightyeskimo]

80-1,000-8

Todd Heap 135 targets 85 catches 977 yards 11.5 ypc and 6 TDs

As a Heap owner for the past 6 years in a dynasty league I have to say, with all due respect, that I believe these two yardage projections to be nothing short of ludicrous. I don't think this would be possible even with McNair, Ogden and the defense in thier prime. As for TD's. Six is reasonable but eight is certainly pushing it. IMHO: 725 yards and 5 TD's. And that's over a full 16 games! 100% healthy.

 

[Blue-Kun]

64-690-3

People really overrate how well this guy has actually done. He's broken 850 yards once (855), he's never broken 7 TD's, he has never had more than 75 receptions. Unless you really think there will be a perfect storm, he'll be a decent TE1 in PPR and otherwise pretty meh. Like with the current QB situation, I'm not sure how even an optimist can go higher than 700 yardage wise and his TD totals have fluctuated over his career (though mostly due to injuries).

 

[Jon_Moore]

Throw out his rookie season, and he's played 16 games 4/6 seasons, and in those seasons finished with at least 56 catches, 693 Yards and 3 tds. That's been on some piss poor passing teams that Brian Billick created. In the 4 seasons he's played all 16 games, he's finished as TE1, TE3, TE3, TE4. So, there's a decent chance if he plays 16 games, he finishes as a top 5 TE. You have to feel pretty good about drafting him. The QB situation is obvioulsy iffy, but you look at the guys he's had in the past and the bad offenses from then, this can't be any worse.

71 Receptions

817 Yards

6 TDs

 

[BigRed]

This guy has had about a 70/750/6ish career, basically. I see no reason to expect more and slight reason to expect less (possible inury, iffier than ever QBs, lesser OL etc). Still a worthwhile option if you wait late on TEs, but no more.

 

[Marc Levin]

64-690-3People really overrate how well this guy has actually done. He's broken 850 yards once (855), he's never broken 7 TD's, he has never had more than 75 receptions. Unless you really think there will be a perfect storm, he'll be a decent TE1 in PPR and otherwise pretty meh. Like with the current QB situation, I'm not sure how even an optimist can go higher than 700 yardage wise and his TD totals have fluctuated over his career (though mostly due to injuries).

:(Fantasy finishes in non-PPR leagues of 1, 3, 3, and 4 when he plays 16 games. In PPR leagues, he fared even better.If he plays 16, he has shown he is a top-5 TE regardless of what yardage/TD threshholds you care to banty about.How many 900 yard/8TD TEs do you expect to see this year?

 

[BigRed]

If he plays 16, he has shown he is a top-5 TE regardless of what yardage/TD threshholds you care to banty about.

...which means in a 10 or 12 team league, he's middle of the pack. People really need to keep in mind that "top 5" or "top 10" this or that really isn't saying much FF-wise.

 

[Marc Levin]

If he plays 16, he has shown he is a top-5 TE regardless of what yardage/TD threshholds you care to banty about.

...which means in a 10 or 12 team league, he's middle of the pack.

:(

People really need to keep in mind that "top 5" or "top 10" this or that really isn't saying much FF-wise.

That depends on the drop from 5 to 6, or from 10 to 11 - doesn't it?Typically, with TEs, one of the top few is good to have, anbd after that it is a cluster . . .

Certainly, in the years Heap finished 1-4, you wanted him on your team because the disparity to, say, the #7 TE was huge.

 

[BigRed]

That depends on the drop from 5 to 6, or from 10 to 11 - doesn't it?

True enough.

Certainly, in the years Heap finished 1-4, you wanted him on your team because the disparity to, say, the #7 TE was huge.

Can't speak to those specifics, but generally speaking, I think my point stands.

 

[Marc Levin]

That depends on the drop from 5 to 6, or from 10 to 11 - doesn't it?

True enough.

Certainly, in the years Heap finished 1-4, you wanted him on your team because the disparity to, say, the #7 TE was huge.

Can't speak to those specifics, but generally speaking, I think my point stands.

It's a good point/counterpoint.When you have one starter (QB/TE) having a top-5 guys is nowhere near as beneficial as it is at RB/WR.That said, having "a" top-5 QB/TE is a loaded term in that you need to know where the drop is - so the specifics matter. Having the #5 TE means nothing if there is a shallow drop to the #12 TE, but if there is a huge drop from 4 to 5, having the #4 TE is important.I think the projections here are indicative that, if Heap has a top-5 TE season, he will be very valuable, and will be a nicer mid-round draft pick than, say, a consistent, but unspectacular, guy who goes ahead of him - namely, Chris Cooley.

 

[BigRed]

When you have one starter (QB/TE) having a top-5 guys is nowhere near as beneficial as it is at RB/WR.

Of course, because you have more RBs/WRs - the bigger the #, the more "top (X)" stands out. Simple math there.

That said, having "a" top-5 QB/TE is a loaded term in that you need to know where the drop is - so the specifics matter.

Yep.......what I said was a very general statement.

I think the projections here are indicative that, if Heap has a top-5 TE season, he will be very valuable,

I wouldn't go as far as "very valuable" but will likely be a good value pick at least.

and will be a nicer mid-round draft pick than, say, a consistent, but unspectacular, guy who goes ahead of him - namely, Chris Cooley.

! Interesting statement, and very possible. If (if) he stays healthy, a better value, at least.

 

[Blue-Kun]

64-690-3People really overrate how well this guy has actually done. He's broken 850 yards once (855), he's never broken 7 TD's, he has never had more than 75 receptions. Unless you really think there will be a perfect storm, he'll be a decent TE1 in PPR and otherwise pretty meh. Like with the current QB situation, I'm not sure how even an optimist can go higher than 700 yardage wise and his TD totals have fluctuated over his career (though mostly due to injuries).

Fantasy finishes in non-PPR leagues of 1, 3, 3, and 4 when he plays 16 games. In PPR leagues, he fared even better.If he plays 16, he has shown he is a top-5 TE regardless of what yardage/TD threshholds you care to banty about.How many 900 yard/8TD TEs do you expect to see this year?

Don't play in non-PPR, so that probably skews my view a bit. That said, even going by your view in non-PPR.06 - Finished with just over 12 pts more than 8th place TE. 34 pts behind Gates05 - Yep. Heap finished significantly better than the TE a couple of slots around him. 43 pts behind Gates.03 - 14 pts over the 4th place TE, but only finished with 87.3 pts total. He was 16pts over the 8th place, which can tell you how close and weak the TE scoring was this year. Any non Gonzalez / Sharpe TE that year was near worthless for FF purposes in the grand scheme. 02 - Yep. Heap finished significantly better than the TE's below him. So yeah, he finished very well in 2 years and the other 2 years he did he was in the middle of a pack TE-wise for 12 teamers and significantly behind the top TE. Another two years he was hurt.I'll concede I should have fleshed out the view a bit more. Simply put I'm only looking for top 2/3 TE's every year or I'm just blowing the position off entirely. As I said, Heap has only shown up for a dramatically better performance than TE around him 2 years. The other two years are only impressive from a final ranking standpoint, from a FF pt standpoint he really wasn't far off from the pack.This year he comes back to a rookie QB. No, I don't particularly think he'll exceed the pack average.

How many 900 yard/8TD TEs do you expect to see this year?

I think Gonzalez, Witten, Winslow & a healthy Gates certainly have the potential to do so and history to make it more than an educated guess, I'd say point-wise it's likely you'll see the equivalent points of at least 2 TE hitting the mark (obviously assuming health).