Player Spotlight: Tom Brady (1 Viewer)

[Jason Wood]

2007 Player Spotlight Series

Over the course of the offseason, we will be evaluating a multitude of players at every fantasy position. One such way we go about that is through the Player Spotlight series. Think of the Spotlights as a permanent record on some of the more intriguing players for the upcoming season. Each Spotlight will be featured in an article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Tom Brady, QB, New England Patriots

Player Page Link: Tom Brady Player Page

Each article will include:

Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads
FBG Projections
Consensus Member ProjectionsThe Rules

In order for this thread to provide sustainable value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

Focus commentary on the player in question, and your expectations for said player
Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
To be included in the final synopsis and consensus outlook, you MUST provide projections for the playerProjections should include (at a minimum):

For QBs: Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDsBest of Luck and ENJOY!

 

[nerangers]

Considering Brady's WRs last year, he still managed to finish 8th in passing attempts, 7th in completions, 7th in passing yards, tied 4th in passing TDs, and 10th in adjusted yards per pass.

I think with the improvements in targets he has to throw to this year, there should be more consistency, and his stats will go up.

Passing yards - 3900

TDs - 29

Int - 9

 

[Keith Lewis]

The clefted chinned boy wonder will have a fantastic year. When Tom is not sleeping with models and saving children from burning buildings he will be setting the NFL on fire.

330-520-4350 w/ 32/14

50 rush yards, 1 TD

#2 QB in 2007

 

[KING]

just another great year

525 325 3800 29td 12int 50 yards rushing, and 2 supermodels

 

[BigRed]

I agree with and hate this (as a Colts fan). He has weapons like never before. Will be looking to have him on my FF team this year.

 

[rzrback77]

Tom Brady is a worry free pick. He is very consistent game to game and he has started 16 games per year in each of the previous seasons. His stats for those five years:

02 - 373 comp 601 pass att 3764 yds (6.3 ypa) 28 TDs 14 ints 110 rush yds 1 TD QB #9

03 - 317 comp 527 pass att 3620 yds (6.9 ypa) 23 TDs 12 ints 63 rush yds 1 TD QB #11

04 - 288 comp 474 pass att 3692 yds (7.8 ypa) 28 TDs 14 ints 28 rush yds 0 TD QB #10

05 - 334 comp 530 pass att 4110 yds (7.8 ypa) 26 TDs 14 ints 89 rush yds 1 TD QB #2

06 - 319 comp 516 pass att 3529 yds (6.8 ypa) 24 TDs 12 ints 102 rush yds 0 TD QB #7

Now, the problems. He has many new weapons, including Randy Moss, Stallworth, Welker, and solid receiving options at RB and TE. Expectations are high and Brady will be drafted high, too high. He will be drafted earlier than in previous years when he already went rather high. He is listed as the QB3 and will frequently be drafted in the third round or even higher. He will not improve much on previous year stats and could even do worse. Both Stallworth and Randy Moss have a tendency to pout and bring down a team. That possibility is there and even if that is not the case, New England has RB options and will probably continue to run the football and their defense is improved so scoring could also be lowered just based on need.

I see a similar year to the above five for Tom Brady, probably below the expectations of those that draft him high.

344 comp 540 pass att 3888 yds (7.2 ypa) 27 TDs 14 ints 66 rush yds 0 TD

 

[Phlash]

Tom Brady is a worry free pick. He is very consistent game to game and he has started 16 games per year in each of the previous seasons. His stats for those five years:02 - 373 comp 601 pass att 3764 yds (6.3 ypa) 28 TDs 14 ints 110 rush yds 1 TD QB #9 03 - 317 comp 527 pass att 3620 yds (6.9 ypa) 23 TDs 12 ints 63 rush yds 1 TD QB #11 04 - 288 comp 474 pass att 3692 yds (7.8 ypa) 28 TDs 14 ints 28 rush yds 0 TD QB #10 05 - 334 comp 530 pass att 4110 yds (7.8 ypa) 26 TDs 14 ints 89 rush yds 1 TD QB #2 06 - 319 comp 516 pass att 3529 yds (6.8 ypa) 24 TDs 12 ints 102 rush yds 0 TD QB #7Now, the problems. He has many new weapons, including Randy Moss, Stallworth, Welker, and solid receiving options at RB and TE. Expectations are high and Brady will be drafted high, too high. He will be drafted earlier than in previous years when he already went rather high. He is listed as the QB3 and will frequently be drafted in the third round or even higher. He will not improve much on previous year stats and could even do worse. Both Stallworth and Randy Moss have a tendency to pout and bring down a team. That possibility is there and even if that is not the case, New England has RB options and will probably continue to run the football and their defense is improved so scoring could also be lowered just based on need.I see a similar year to the above five for Tom Brady, probably below the expectations of those that draft him high.344 comp 540 pass att 3888 yds (7.2 ypa) 27 TDs 14 ints 66 rush yds 0 TD

An improved defense is never a reason to temper expectations for the Patriots. Belichick will move the ball any way he can - he admits that if he has to pass every down to score touchdowns, he'll pass every down. He will go with his best players, who are all in the passing part of the offense. I see a huge year for Brady (assuming the Randy ratio works out)320/500 4100 30/12 50

 

[Jon_Moore]

Moss, Welker and Stallworth are obvious upgrades in talent. But, I'm not sold that Brady's going to experience a massive uptick in production. If there was ever an underacheiver, it's certainly Moss. He's been lazy, and he's not the same guy he used to be. Blame it on a lack of a qb, if you like, but he's just not the same. Stallworth has great speed and shows a knack for making plays, but he usually manages to find some nagging injury to take him out of his game. Welker is a guy I like, but he's not going to set the world on fire.

Don't get me wrong, there's a great bunch of talent here, but I don't believe New England is about to turn into Indy or Cincinatti.

Brady has however been money in the bank for years. Both in fantasy and real life. Doesn't miss games, rarely if ever does he dissappoint on Sunday.

325/520

3,800 yards

27 tds

13 Ints

40 carries

95 yards

1 tds

 

[djcolts]

312/514

4,100 yards

30 TDs

12 Ints

120 rushing yards

0 Tds

2007 NFL MVP

 

[rzrback77]

Tom Brady is a worry free pick. He is very consistent game to game and he has started 16 games per year in each of the previous seasons. His stats for those five years:02 - 373 comp 601 pass att 3764 yds (6.3 ypa) 28 TDs 14 ints 110 rush yds 1 TD QB #9 03 - 317 comp 527 pass att 3620 yds (6.9 ypa) 23 TDs 12 ints 63 rush yds 1 TD QB #11 04 - 288 comp 474 pass att 3692 yds (7.8 ypa) 28 TDs 14 ints 28 rush yds 0 TD QB #10 05 - 334 comp 530 pass att 4110 yds (7.8 ypa) 26 TDs 14 ints 89 rush yds 1 TD QB #2 06 - 319 comp 516 pass att 3529 yds (6.8 ypa) 24 TDs 12 ints 102 rush yds 0 TD QB #7Now, the problems. He has many new weapons, including Randy Moss, Stallworth, Welker, and solid receiving options at RB and TE. Expectations are high and Brady will be drafted high, too high. He will be drafted earlier than in previous years when he already went rather high. He is listed as the QB3 and will frequently be drafted in the third round or even higher. He will not improve much on previous year stats and could even do worse. Both Stallworth and Randy Moss have a tendency to pout and bring down a team. That possibility is there and even if that is not the case, New England has RB options and will probably continue to run the football and their defense is improved so scoring could also be lowered just based on need.I see a similar year to the above five for Tom Brady, probably below the expectations of those that draft him high.344 comp 540 pass att 3888 yds (7.2 ypa) 27 TDs 14 ints 66 rush yds 0 TD

An improved defense is never a reason to temper expectations for the Patriots. Belichick will move the ball any way he can - he admits that if he has to pass every down to score touchdowns, he'll pass every down. He will go with his best players, who are all in the passing part of the offense. I see a huge year for Brady (assuming the Randy ratio works out)320/500 4100 30/12 50

Interesting that you downplay the improved defense decreasing the passing that I suggest might be possible, but you show 40 LESS pass attempts, just a little more yardage and TDs.

 

[shadyridr]

He should be a top 5 QB this year. I got him ranked 4th behing Manning, Palmer, and Brees. He has all the weapons. Star WRs in Moss, Stallworth, and Welker. Even if Moss gets hurt there is still enough depth at WR to not hurt him. His has top TEs in Watson and Thomas. And he has a top notch pass catching RB in Faulk. On top of that he has an iffy RB situation so they may need to pass the ball alot this year. I think its safe to say Brady will be a stud this year.

4000 yds pass, 27 tds, 12 ints

 

[David Yudkin]

1) Pats defense while better on paper may not translate to better on the field. No doubt Thomas is a huge acquisition, but if Asante Samuel holds out the secondary is not all that great. Add in their usual amount of defensive injuries and New England could be a very good but not dominating defense.

2) Is Maroney healthy, can he carry the load, and what is Plan B if there are bumps in the road.

3) New England with Randy Moss is similar to Philadelphia and Terrell Owens. Philadelphia added a star WR and had a top defense and did not run extensively.

4) Brady has never had through the roof numbers because the team never had a receiving corps as potent as this one. Brown back in the day was a decent possession receiver and Givens and Branch did well at times, but as a whole the 07 unit is stacked.

5) The schedule should be tougher than in recent seasons. They play 11 teams that were playoff teams in the last two years and 4 other division games which are always a challenge. The only other team left is Cleveland.

If all signs ever pointed to a career year for Brady, this is it. Given the contract terms for some of the new acquisitions, this may be the only year that this team has together.

I broke down how I saw the Pats offense shaping up in 2007 in the Randy Moss Player Spotlight thread, concluding that Brady would have:

350 completions, 4350 passing yards, 31 TD

35 rushing attempts, 65 rushing yards, and a rushing TD

But if something happened to Maroney, I suspect the passing totals would go up from there.

 

[Verbal Kint]

Moss, Welker and Stallworth are obvious upgrades in talent. But, I'm not sold that Brady's going to experience a massive uptick in production. If there was ever an underacheiver, it's certainly Moss. He's been lazy, and he's not the same guy he used to be. Blame it on a lack of a qb, if you like, but he's just not the same. Stallworth has great speed and shows a knack for making plays, but he usually manages to find some nagging injury to take him out of his game. Welker is a guy I like, but he's not going to set the world on fire.Don't get me wrong, there's a great bunch of talent here, but I don't believe New England is about to turn into Indy or Cincinatti.Brady has however been money in the bank for years. Both in fantasy and real life. Doesn't miss games, rarely if ever does he dissappoint on Sunday. 325/5203,800 yards27 tds13 Ints40 carries95 yards1 tds

Put me in the category that thinks Belichick and Brady can keep Moss & Stallworth motivated and check their egos. If they can do that, everything points to a fantastic year, given what Brady has been able to do thus far with sub-par WR corps. Couple that with the emergence of Watson at TE and Maroney at RB - Brady's got better weapons this year BY FAR than in previous years. He also turns 30 this year, which I've long held as an age marker for a quantum improvement at the QB position.I've got him at the #1 QB this year4,650 yards, 36 TD, 12 INT

 

[lions327]

If you look at Brady's numbers, he is about as consistent as they come. Over the last 5 seasons, Brady's passing yards have ranged from 3529 to 4110; his TD's have been 28, 23, 28, 26, 24; his INT's have been 14, 12, 14, 14, 12.

Despite all of the additions to the WR corps, I think he will continue to do what he has always done, manage the game better than anyone. I think the Patriots will still run the ball as much if not more than in the past because defenses will have to respect the pass.

You can't lose by taking advantage of Brady's consistency. I see a lot of the same this year.

Attempts: 520

Completions: 325

Passing Yards: 3650

TD's: 27

INT's:12

Rushes: 39

Rushing yards: 98

Rushing TD's: 1

Super Bowl ring: 1 more

 

[Monsters of the Midway]

I don't think that the new WRs will result in a quantum leap forward in fantasy numbers. New England is the best clock-management and field-position team in the NFL and when they have the lead in the 2nd half of games (which will be often) they will be more focused on working clock and flipping the field than other teams.

Brady could throw upwards of 33 TDs in a Martz-style offense but I don't think that he'll get the chance to throw enough in this offense.

I predict less yards than last year but more TDs

3600 yards, 28 TDs

 

[Sabertooth]

Brady is my number 3 QB. I think his numbers take a jump into Manning like territory

4100 yards, 32 touchdowns, 2 rushing touchdowns

He's never had nearly the weapons he has at his disposal this season. I think the catch and run ability of Moss, Stallworth, and Welker is going to make all the difference. Moss can be very tough for smaller backs to tackle. Welker's game is quickness and RAC ability, he'll break 1 or 2 of those 7 yard hitches and this will help. Guys like Reche Caldwell are not the type of guys to create on their own.

Brady's YPA dropped from two seasons of 7.8 down a full yard last season to 6.8. If he simply gains that yard back he's over 4000 yards. An uptick of touchdowns because of personnel improvements and you are in Manningtown.

 

[twitch]

I think he'll be golden this year, New England will win 13 regular season games, and Brady will be the league MVP.

350/550 4100yds

32TDs 14INTs

70ru yds 2TDs

 

[sholditch]

4000 and 30, 13 ints