Player Spotlight: Tom Brady (1 Viewer)

[Jason Wood]

2008 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. Last year, we published more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters. This year will be no different.

Each week we will post a list of players to be discussed. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discussion expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Tom Brady, QB, New England Patriots

Player Page Link: Tom Brady Player Page

Each article will include:

Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads
FBG Projections
Consensus Member ProjectionsThe Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

Focus commentary on the player in question, and your expectations for said player
Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
To be included in the final synopsis and consensus outlook, you MUST provide projections for the playerProjections should include (at a minimum):

For QBs: Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDsNow let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

 

[bostonfred]

It's trendy to pick Tom Brady to regress to the mean. There are a million statistics that will show that Manning, Marino, and others have fallen off dramatically after putting up their historic seasons. And with Brady nearly doubling his best season TD total last year, it seems hard to imagine that he could approach 50 TDs again.

But there is good news for Brady's fantasy stock. While some of the all time great seasons have been followed by a substantial dropoff the following season, Favre followed up his 38 TD season with 39 the following season and 35 the season after that, and he didn't have Randy Moss. It's difficult to imagine Brady improving on 50 TDs, but there's no reason to assume he'll drop off the face of the planet just because other QBs have dropped off. Other factors:

Schedule: After playing a relatively difficult schedule last year, the Patriots play the league's easiest in 2008. Manning, on the other hand, went from the softest schedule in the league during his historic run, to a more challenging one the following year. A more interesting question is whether the Giants gave the league the blueprint for stopping Tom Brady. With three or more defensive ends in the game on passing downs, the Giants were able to create havoc in the backfield and keep Tom Brady from having time to complete his passes. Of course, not every team has the defensive talent to do this, and Brady is the best in the league at getting the ball away on quick slants and screens. The Pats may face a lighter defensive schedule this year, but you shouldn't be too giddy about it.

Receivers: Some might point to Donte Stallworth's departure as a negative, but he wasn't on the field full time last year, and Moss and Welker were clearly the focal point of the Pats' passing game even when he was. Marcus Pollard is no world beater, but the Pats love to run (and throw to) multiple tight ends in the end zone, so he may help Brady's value. Jabar Gaffney has been surprisingly solid, and Chad Jackson has the potential to be great. I'm mildly concerned about Moss from a motivation standpoint. On the one hand, he "plays when he wants to play". On the other hand, he showed this year that he is interested in his legacy, and worked hard to set the touchdown record. Will he try for 24? Or will he be make a run at Owens' numbers in an attempt to go down as the best of his era?

Running game: On the one hand, it's hard to imagine the Patriots forcing the pass this year, which may hurt Brady's statistics. But on the other, you have to imagine that Belichick would love to put up another historic season in the name of repairing his legacy. Maroney looked good late in the season and into the playoffs, but even if the backs get a bigger share of the scoring, the Pats ran for 17 TDs as a team last year. There's no reaosn to think the backs will get much more of a piece of the pie this year, unless they sign another veteran.

Motivation: Brady broke the record last year. If you believe he was forcing touchdowns to reach the record, then you have to question whether he will have the motivation to do so again this year. The good news is that, if Manning gets Harrison back, he may have his best set of receivers yet, and will give Brady a run for his money. I'm sure that if you ask either of them if they're concerned with regular season numbers, they'll both say the right things, but I wouldn't be surprised to see both of them show a competitive streak as they have established themselves as the premier QB rivals of this generation. After Manning's big season, his focus on numbers went away. This year, I can legitimately see both of them putting up big seasons en route to another postseason matchup.

Overall: The 2007 Patriots set the record for most touchdowns in a single season. The questions are whether you think that they can approach those numbers again this year, and whether you think that Brady will have as big a piece of the scoring pie as he did last year. If you do, you have to take Brady in the early first round. If you don't, you should be prepared to pass on him, because he won't last long in most leagues.

 

[Burning Sensation]

525/330

4150

36/12

 

[David Yudkin]

Brady and the Pats overall were a bit of a tale of two half seasons last year. NE averaged 41 ppg in their first 10 games but 27 ppg in their last 9 games. Similarly, Brady average 3.8 passing TD in those first 10 games but 2.0 passing TD in the final 9 games.

His passing yardage totals also dipped to the tune of 30 yards per game (306 to 276 passing yards). That could be attributed to a lot of factors including the cooler weather, teams adjusting, closer games, an inconsistent running game, etc.

If you extrapolate Brady's last 9 games, that would yield 4416 passing yards and 32 TD. IMO, that's a pretty close assessment of what to predict for Brady this year . . . the league will have had a year's worth of tape to make adjustments defensively.

For those considering another lofty TD total for Brady this year, remember he more than doubled his TD output compared to 2007. And he never threw more than 28 TD in a season.

I foresee New England still being a pass happy team, but one that will score fewer points and TD in the sequel. I predict Brady's yardage total to stay high but his TDs to drop almost a full TD per game.

4400/36

 

[Tanner9919]

It's trendy to pick Tom Brady to regress to the mean. There are a million statistics that will show that Manning, Marino, and others have fallen off dramatically after putting up their historic seasons. And with Brady nearly doubling his best season TD total last year, it seems hard to imagine that he could approach 50 TDs again.

But there is good news for Brady's fantasy stock. While some of the all time great seasons have been followed by a substantial dropoff the following season, Favre followed up his 38 TD season with 39 the following season and 35 the season after that, and he didn't have Randy Moss. It's difficult to imagine Brady improving on 50 TDs, but there's no reason to assume he'll drop off the face of the planet just because other QBs have dropped off. Other factors:

Schedule: After playing a relatively difficult schedule last year, the Patriots play the league's easiest in 2008. Manning, on the other hand, went from the softest schedule in the league during his historic run, to a more challenging one the following year. A more interesting question is whether the Giants gave the league the blueprint for stopping Tom Brady. With three or more defensive ends in the game on passing downs, the Giants were able to create havoc in the backfield and keep Tom Brady from having time to complete his passes. Of course, not every team has the defensive talent to do this, and Brady is the best in the league at getting the ball away on quick slants and screens. The Pats may face a lighter defensive schedule this year, but you shouldn't be too giddy about it.

Receivers: Some might point to Donte Stallworth's departure as a negative, but he wasn't on the field full time last year, and Moss and Welker were clearly the focal point of the Pats' passing game even when he was. Marcus Pollard is no world beater, but the Pats love to run (and throw to) multiple tight ends in the end zone, so he may help Brady's value. Jabar Gaffney has been surprisingly solid, and Chad Jackson has the potential to be great. I'm mildly concerned about Moss from a motivation standpoint. On the one hand, he "plays when he wants to play". On the other hand, he showed this year that he is interested in his legacy, and worked hard to set the touchdown record. Will he try for 24? Or will he be make a run at Owens' numbers in an attempt to go down as the best of his era?

Running game: On the one hand, it's hard to imagine the Patriots forcing the pass this year, which may hurt Brady's statistics. But on the other, you have to imagine that Belichick would love to put up another historic season in the name of repairing his legacy. Maroney looked good late in the season and into the playoffs, but even if the backs get a bigger share of the scoring, the Pats ran for 17 TDs as a team last year. There's no reaosn to think the backs will get much more of a piece of the pie this year, unless they sign another veteran.

Motivation: Brady broke the record last year. If you believe he was forcing touchdowns to reach the record, then you have to question whether he will have the motivation to do so again this year. The good news is that, if Manning gets Harrison back, he may have his best set of receivers yet, and will give Brady a run for his money. I'm sure that if you ask either of them if they're concerned with regular season numbers, they'll both say the right things, but I wouldn't be surprised to see both of them show a competitive streak as they have established themselves as the premier QB rivals of this generation. After Manning's big season, his focus on numbers went away. This year, I can legitimately see both of them putting up big seasons en route to another postseason matchup.

Overall: The 2007 Patriots set the record for most touchdowns in a single season. The questions are whether you think that they can approach those numbers again this year, and whether you think that Brady will have as big a piece of the scoring pie as he did last year. If you do, you have to take Brady in the early first round. If you don't, you should be prepared to pass on him, because he won't last long in most leagues.

if they continue to drop Brady back to pass as much as they did last season, he'll get killed. The easy schedules BEGS NE to RUN more , not pass more..The line you used about Favre doesn't apply..38 TDs is not a record, and while throwing 39 the following season is impressive, there was no record set so it doesn't matter anyways.

Do you not think that opponents have studied film on the Patriots 2007 season, watched the SB countless times, studied the approach that Philly and Balt. used late last season? You can be rest assured that everyone is gunning for NE in 2008.

The biggest problem NE has, is an OLD defense...scoring 50 TDs means the defense will be on the field more because the offense scores so quickly and at times, easily.. NE defense was tired at the end of the Philly game, and against the Ravens, SD, NYG..they ARE vulnerable to long sustained drives from teams with power running games..would you want to keep the older guys like Seau, Harrison, Teddy B, Vrabel out on the field for extended periods of time? nope.best way to avoid that, is to run the ball , eat up the clock, and keep your defense on the sidelines..

offensively, they've become somewhat one-dimensional..teams will continue to throw the kitchen sink at Brady (ala NYG in the SB), to counter that, they must run the ball more. A lot more, thats why I'd expect Brady's numbers to fall to

3900/28/13

 

[David Yudkin]

It's trendy to pick Tom Brady to regress to the mean. There are a million statistics that will show that Manning, Marino, and others have fallen off dramatically after putting up their historic seasons. And with Brady nearly doubling his best season TD total last year, it seems hard to imagine that he could approach 50 TDs again.

But there is good news for Brady's fantasy stock. While some of the all time great seasons have been followed by a substantial dropoff the following season, Favre followed up his 38 TD season with 39 the following season and 35 the season after that, and he didn't have Randy Moss. It's difficult to imagine Brady improving on 50 TDs, but there's no reason to assume he'll drop off the face of the planet just because other QBs have dropped off. Other factors:

Schedule: After playing a relatively difficult schedule last year, the Patriots play the league's easiest in 2008. Manning, on the other hand, went from the softest schedule in the league during his historic run, to a more challenging one the following year. A more interesting question is whether the Giants gave the league the blueprint for stopping Tom Brady. With three or more defensive ends in the game on passing downs, the Giants were able to create havoc in the backfield and keep Tom Brady from having time to complete his passes. Of course, not every team has the defensive talent to do this, and Brady is the best in the league at getting the ball away on quick slants and screens. The Pats may face a lighter defensive schedule this year, but you shouldn't be too giddy about it.

Receivers: Some might point to Donte Stallworth's departure as a negative, but he wasn't on the field full time last year, and Moss and Welker were clearly the focal point of the Pats' passing game even when he was. Marcus Pollard is no world beater, but the Pats love to run (and throw to) multiple tight ends in the end zone, so he may help Brady's value. Jabar Gaffney has been surprisingly solid, and Chad Jackson has the potential to be great. I'm mildly concerned about Moss from a motivation standpoint. On the one hand, he "plays when he wants to play". On the other hand, he showed this year that he is interested in his legacy, and worked hard to set the touchdown record. Will he try for 24? Or will he be make a run at Owens' numbers in an attempt to go down as the best of his era?

Running game: On the one hand, it's hard to imagine the Patriots forcing the pass this year, which may hurt Brady's statistics. But on the other, you have to imagine that Belichick would love to put up another historic season in the name of repairing his legacy. Maroney looked good late in the season and into the playoffs, but even if the backs get a bigger share of the scoring, the Pats ran for 17 TDs as a team last year. There's no reaosn to think the backs will get much more of a piece of the pie this year, unless they sign another veteran.

Motivation: Brady broke the record last year. If you believe he was forcing touchdowns to reach the record, then you have to question whether he will have the motivation to do so again this year. The good news is that, if Manning gets Harrison back, he may have his best set of receivers yet, and will give Brady a run for his money. I'm sure that if you ask either of them if they're concerned with regular season numbers, they'll both say the right things, but I wouldn't be surprised to see both of them show a competitive streak as they have established themselves as the premier QB rivals of this generation. After Manning's big season, his focus on numbers went away. This year, I can legitimately see both of them putting up big seasons en route to another postseason matchup.

Overall: The 2007 Patriots set the record for most touchdowns in a single season. The questions are whether you think that they can approach those numbers again this year, and whether you think that Brady will have as big a piece of the scoring pie as he did last year. If you do, you have to take Brady in the early first round. If you don't, you should be prepared to pass on him, because he won't last long in most leagues.

if they continue to drop Brady back to pass as much as they did last season, he'll get killed. The easy schedules BEGS NE to RUN more , not pass more..The line you used about Favre doesn't apply..38 TDs is not a record, and while throwing 39 the following season is impressive, there was no record set so it doesn't matter anyways.

Do you not think that opponents have studied film on the Patriots 2007 season, watched the SB countless times, studied the approach that Philly and Balt. used late last season? You can be rest assured that everyone is gunning for NE in 2008.

The biggest problem NE has, is an OLD defense...scoring 50 TDs means the defense will be on the field more because the offense scores so quickly and at times, easily.. NE defense was tired at the end of the Philly game, and against the Ravens, SD, NYG..they ARE vulnerable to long sustained drives from teams with power running games..would you want to keep the older guys like Seau, Harrison, Teddy B, Vrabel out on the field for extended periods of time? nope.best way to avoid that, is to run the ball , eat up the clock, and keep your defense on the sidelines..

offensively, they've become somewhat one-dimensional..teams will continue to throw the kitchen sink at Brady (ala NYG in the SB), to counter that, they must run the ball more. A lot more, thats why I'd expect Brady's numbers to fall to

3900/28/13

There are so many things in this post that I would question . . . - For starters, last year the Pats had 32:35 time of possession. The two years before that it was 31:35 and 30:19.

- Like many other people, the comments in the above post are HEAVILY influenced by the results of ONE GAME. THe Pats did not play as well as other weeks (yet still were less than a miute and one fluke play from winning). WHy does the outcome of one game trump the outcome of 18 others?

- Not every team will have the personnel to match what the Giants did, and the NE front line was extremely effectively many, many other weeks.

- They only allowed 98 yds/gm rushing and for the most part did not have major issues stopping the run. Yes, they had a couple games where they gave up a couple of bigger running games, but that is not unusual for any team. Which teams are not vulnerable to great OLs with power running games?

- The defense has a few guys that are getting up there age wise, but they have plenty of younger guys or guys in their prime. As of right now, they have Harrison, Vrabel, and Bruschi that are in their 30s. That's it.

- I can't possible see how teams will be gunning for NE anymore than they were last year when they were unbeaten week after week.

- If we compare the Pats uber offense to that of the Rams from 10 years ago . . . wouldn't we have concluded that the Rams would have run so much more in the following season(s)? Yet they still passed, passed, and passed week after week.

- The Pats had 48 fewer rushing attempts than 2006 but 12 more than they did in 2005. As I outlined in some player spotlights, NE historically has had some problems running the football. At times, they just don't do it very well. I don't see them running the ball just to do so if they are not effective.

- For those that want to point to what Brady did in the past, be reminded that those numbers were pre-Moss and pre-Welker. Brady has more weapons than he used to, and he will continue to use them.

- NE will probably run a little more than they did in 2007 when Brady and Moss were clearly going out of their way to break some records.

- My sources close to the team have indicated that heading into the season the team is planning on running the same offense and the same game plan as last year, so don't expect major changes.

 

[shadyridr]

Pretty safe to count on:

576 att, 4493 yds, 36 tds, 12 ints

 

[rzrback77]

Its a fairly good bet that Tom Brady will be the first QB drafted in almost every fantasy league this year and to get him, you will have to probably burn a first round lower pick or at the latest an early second rounder. He could score similar to last year when he led a lot of teams to fantasy championships. However, it is very reasonable to assess that he will regress more than just a small amount from his record breaking year in 07. Consider a few of his stats:

02 - 601 attempts for 6.3 ypa and 3764 yards with 28 TDs and 14 ints 110 rush yds & 1 TD

03 - 527 attempts for 6.9 ypa and 3620 yards with 23 TDs and 12 ints 63 rush yds & 1 TD

04 - 474 attempts for 7.8 ypa and 3692 yards with 28 TDs and 14 ints 28 rush yds & 0 TDs

05 - 530 attempts for 7.8 ypa and 4110 yards with 26 TDs and 14 ints 89 rush yds & 1 TD

06 - 516 attempts for 6.8 ypa and 3529 yards with 24 TDs and 12 ints 102 rush yds & 0 TDs

07 - 578 attempts for 8.3 ypa and 4806 yards with 50 TDs and 8 ints 98 rush yds & 2 TDs

That is extremely consistent QB play with one singular season that stands out from the rest. It was a perfect storm for the Patriots and those numbers will not be repeated. He may very well still finish as the QB 1, but it will be closer to the pack in 08 as his production falls back in line with other seasons. New England will run the ball more in 08 to keep the defense on their heels and keep Brady upright.

Tom Brady 330 comps in 500 att 66% 3900 yds 7.8 ypa 33 TDs 14 ints with 100 yds rush & 1 TD

 

[Manster]

he'll be drafted above his value, imo. i'm not taking a QB in the 1st, bottomline. and no way he puts up the same numbers. that o-line proved to be mortal in the SB. gimme Romo in the 2nd-3rd or Brees in the 4th-5th.

4400 35 tds 15 ints

 

[brady2moss]

4092 yards on 525 attempts with 40 tds. and 11 ints

 

[Iwannabeacowboybaby!]

I don't have any reasons to give anyone that would not put Tom Brady as the No. 1 fantasy quarterback this upcoming season. He may not put up the mind boggling statistics he did last year, but with Randy Moss still on the team, he should put up great numbers again. The only thing that could slow down the Pats offense this year is them. If they play all out all year long like they did last year, the numbers could be similar.

40 Td's, 4200 yards and 15 int's

 

[Jon_Moore]

Every year since 2002, Brady has finished in the top 11 QBs. The past 3 years, he's finished as #2, #7, #1. Since 2002, he's accomplished all this with average at best Wide receivers. Last year, he finally gets his first good one, the best in the league, and he sets the single season record for TDs

Defenses have a years worth of film to watch and make adjustments off of. Brady and Moss have a years worth of Chemistry developed now, and Moss has had a full year to take in the offense.

Moss has been in the league 10 seasons now. If defenses were ever going to be able to adjust to slow him down, they would have figured it out by now. He was unstoppable with Culpepper--and Brady>>>>>Culpepper. If they can't stop Moss, they sure can't stop the guy throwing him the ball.

If they try to triple cover Moss, then Welker eats them alive from underneath.

People are saying they have to run more this year...I'm sure they will to a slight degree, but I don't see why it has to be such that it's going to bring Brady down considerably. He actually attempted more passes in 2002, despite the ridiculous passing numbers he posted this season.

Don't forget former 2nd round pick Chad Jackson is finally healthy, and all reports are he's looking incredibly strong. He could turn into an excellent 2nd or 3rd receiver for the team.

354/544

4406 Yards

38 TDs

13 Ints

40 Rushes

100 Yards

1 Rushing TD

 

[The Man with the Plan]

Don't pay for a career year.

 

[mt-wabo]

Im picking 9th

In one of my non-shark leagues which tends to be running back heavy Im thinking of either doing two things take Gore or Barber and follow up with Wayne or Braylon or Take Brady if he is available at 9 out of 12 and then on the turn grab Lynch or the best value.

I never draft a Qb that early but at 6pts a td 1 pt per 25yrds passing the low end he is good for is 400pts and thats just if he throws for 35tds. The other option is take gore who could be good for 1400 and 10 td's but that wont even come close to what Brady gives me.

 

[BigRed]

For those considering another lofty TD total for Brady this year, remember he more than doubled his TD output compared to 2007. And he never threw more than 28 TD in a season.

And he never had a WR corps anything near what he has now.No of course he won't hit 50. But he may get closer than most expect. He's a lock for low/mid 30s IMO and 40 isn't by any means out of the question. He's going high in auction drafts but might be worth it.

 

[David Yudkin]

For those considering another lofty TD total for Brady this year, remember he more than doubled his TD output compared to 2007. And he never threw more than 28 TD in a season.

And he never had a WR corps anything near what he has now.No of course he won't hit 50. But he may get closer than most expect. He's a lock for low/mid 30s IMO and 40 isn't by any means out of the question. He's going high in auction drafts but might be worth it.

I've commented on Brady in so many threads that I can't remember what I said where. It's very easy to see him doing almost as well, but historically it's just as easy to see him do wosre to a lot worse.When Manning almost had 50 TD, I said the over/under the next year should be 35. People thought I was nuts and almost everyone wanted the over. Manning ended up with 28 TD.I suspect Brady will lose a big chunk of TD but retain most of his yardage total from last year, as the Pats will continue to pass a lot but struggle to get in the end zone as frequently.I still think the over/under for Brady should be set at 35, just like it was for Manning. Only Favre has had back to back years with 35 TD before, and he never sniffed 50 TD. It takes almost a perfect storm to hit 50 TD, and the stars don't align in back to back years very often . . .BTW - I've argued both sides of this argument in different threads, so don't be alarmed if you see some other comments elsewhere where it seems like I am pimping the Pats offense as primed for a repeat. It *COULD* happen, as they really did not lose any key pieces to the offense. IMO, it's just unlikely for them to be as dominant again.

 

[BigRed]

np, I think you're waffling on this like I am. A "regression to the norm" (more or less) makes total sense.......I just have this sinking feeling....

 

[PatsFanCT]

np, I think you're waffling on this like I am. A "regression to the norm" (more or less) makes total sense.......I just have this sinking feeling....

Well, the "norm" for Brady with Moss and Welker is 50, so if he regresses to 50, I would be delighted. I could easily see him hitting 40, but highly doubt anything less than 30.

 

[[icon]]

I completely understand predicting a degree of regression but the folks who are weighting prior years equally as a means of proving last year as an outlier are comical. Assuming all other things were equal then, yes, it's a valid argument. Things weren't equal. When you add Moss and Welker you throw out all old data as it's instantly rendered irrelevant. The Brady & Moss show will be slowed a bit as the records have been established so I expect them to mix it up a bit more.... but Brady will still continue to dominate.

550 attempts for 4500 yards with 40 TDs and 10 ints

 

[BigRed]

Exactly why I will have a hard time not bidding up Brady fairly high.....still even with ideal conditions and top talent, 40 TDs is a big mountain to climb.

 

[[icon]]

Exactly why I will have a hard time not bidding up Brady fairly high.....still even with ideal conditions and top talent, 40 TDs is a big mountain to climb.

Maybe but what has changed so much that you'd predict more than a 20% regression?

 

[Brutis]

Exactly why I will have a hard time not bidding up Brady fairly high.....still even with ideal conditions and top talent, 40 TDs is a big mountain to climb.

Maybe but what has changed so much that you'd predict more than a 20% regression?

I think the Pats D will be worse with the offense staying the same. So i tend to think his numbers will be comparable to last year. I would be shocked if Brady threw for under 40 TD's.

 

[switz]

Exactly why I will have a hard time not bidding up Brady fairly high.....still even with ideal conditions and top talent, 40 TDs is a big mountain to climb.

Maybe but what has changed so much that you'd predict more than a 20% regression?

I think the Pats D will be worse with the offense staying the same. So i tend to think his numbers will be comparable to last year. I would be shocked if Brady threw for under 40 TD's.

I don't see the Pats being anywhere near as good as last season, for multitudes of reasons. But I tihnk the biggest one is the SuperBowl loss. I believe it damaged their psyche.Brady 3800 yards, 31 TDs, 15 INTs

 

[Brutis]

Exactly why I will have a hard time not bidding up Brady fairly high.....still even with ideal conditions and top talent, 40 TDs is a big mountain to climb.

Maybe but what has changed so much that you'd predict more than a 20% regression?

I think the Pats D will be worse with the offense staying the same. So i tend to think his numbers will be comparable to last year. I would be shocked if Brady threw for under 40 TD's.

I don't see the Pats being anywhere near as good as last season, for multitudes of reasons. But I tihnk the biggest one is the SuperBowl loss. I believe it damaged their psyche.Brady 3800 yards, 31 TDs, 15 INTs

I believe they come back even stronger because of that. Pats losing the SB was the best thing that ever happened to Brady/Moss owners imo.

 

[Interseptopus]

Depends if this is with or without defensive video...

I think he comes back down to earth but is still a top 5 QB. Hard not to be with Moss out there.

3900 yards, 33 TDs, 17 INTs

Regardless, he's still a tool

 

[BigRed]

Exactly why I will have a hard time not bidding up Brady fairly high.....still even with ideal conditions and top talent, 40 TDs is a big mountain to climb.

Maybe but what has changed so much that you'd predict more than a 20% regression?

Nothing; it's just law of averages. You simply aren't going to put up 50 TDs 2 years in a row; I don't care who you are. What changed after Manning threw 49? Marino's 48? etc etc etc? How often did nothing significant change w/a lot of other examples of players who had a year far better than ever before and the next year went way back down? Probably most. ie it has nothing to do with anything changing. You don't seem to get how hard 50 TDs is to achieve, and a "20% regression" is a misleading way to put it. The odds are well against Brady putting up even 40 TDs.

 

[twitch]

Exactly why I will have a hard time not bidding up Brady fairly high.....still even with ideal conditions and top talent, 40 TDs is a big mountain to climb.

Maybe but what has changed so much that you'd predict more than a 20% regression?

I think the Pats D will be worse with the offense staying the same. So i tend to think his numbers will be comparable to last year. I would be shocked if Brady threw for under 40 TD's.

I don't see the Pats being anywhere near as good as last season, for multitudes of reasons. But I tihnk the biggest one is the SuperBowl loss. I believe it damaged their psyche.Brady 3800 yards, 31 TDs, 15 INTs

"Damaged their psyche"?? Oh, that is funny. Yeah, that playoff loss to the Colts the previous year just absolutely had crushing effects on them last year. That was arguably a worse loss because it was an actual choke. The Superbowl loss having a lasting effect? Nahh. These guys arent little girls. Id avoid the "damaged psyche" theory here and just stick with the "multitude of reasons". Better odds.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

Exactly why I will have a hard time not bidding up Brady fairly high.....still even with ideal conditions and top talent, 40 TDs is a big mountain to climb.

Maybe but what has changed so much that you'd predict more than a 20% regression?

I think the Pats D will be worse with the offense staying the same. So i tend to think his numbers will be comparable to last year. I would be shocked if Brady threw for under 40 TD's.

I don't see the Pats being anywhere near as good as last season, for multitudes of reasons. But I tihnk the biggest one is the SuperBowl loss. I believe it damaged their psyche.Brady 3800 yards, 31 TDs, 15 INTs

"Damaged their psyche"?? Oh, that is funny. Yeah, that playoff loss to the Colts the previous year just absolutely had crushing effects on them last year. That was arguably a worse loss because it was an actual choke. The Superbowl loss having a lasting effect? Nahh. These guys arent little girls. Id avoid the "damaged psyche" theory here and just stick with the "multitude of reasons". Better odds.

Im pretty sure that Superbowl was a choke FYI!

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

Exactly why I will have a hard time not bidding up Brady fairly high.....still even with ideal conditions and top talent, 40 TDs is a big mountain to climb.

Maybe but what has changed so much that you'd predict more than a 20% regression?

I think the Pats D will be worse with the offense staying the same. So i tend to think his numbers will be comparable to last year. I would be shocked if Brady threw for under 40 TD's.

really?? how close did Manning come to 40 the year after he broke the record?IMO he'll be lucky to break 40, more like mid to high 30's

 

[twitch]

Im pretty sure that Superbowl was a choke FYI!

Pretty sure? Id say thats a little telling about what you actually know. Be sure of yourself next time.

 

[Blackjacks]

Brady is Brady....Moss is Moss.....and the Patriots are the Patriots

No choking here

4200 yards

42 td's

10 int's

25 rushes

80 yards

1 td

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

Im pretty sure that Superbowl was a choke FYI!

Pretty sure? Id say thats a little telling about what you actually know. Be sure of yourself next time.

LOL

 

[Blackjacks]

Exactly why I will have a hard time not bidding up Brady fairly high.....still even with ideal conditions and top talent, 40 TDs is a big mountain to climb.

Maybe but what has changed so much that you'd predict more than a 20% regression?

I think the Pats D will be worse with the offense staying the same. So i tend to think his numbers will be comparable to last year. I would be shocked if Brady threw for under 40 TD's.

I don't see the Pats being anywhere near as good as last season, for multitudes of reasons. But I tihnk the biggest one is the SuperBowl loss. I believe it damaged their psyche.Brady 3800 yards, 31 TDs, 15 INTs

I'm not going to argue with your opinion Switz but I would like to ask why you see Brady having his career high in int's (15) this year with the weapons he has at his disposal. He has always been pretty careful with the ball. Why do you see that changing this year?

 

[Brutis]

Exactly why I will have a hard time not bidding up Brady fairly high.....still even with ideal conditions and top talent, 40 TDs is a big mountain to climb.

Maybe but what has changed so much that you'd predict more than a 20% regression?

I think the Pats D will be worse with the offense staying the same. So i tend to think his numbers will be comparable to last year. I would be shocked if Brady threw for under 40 TD's.

really?? how close did Manning come to 40 the year after he broke the record?IMO he'll be lucky to break 40, more like mid to high 30's

What Manning did the year after he broke the record has no bearing on what Brady will do this year. Totally different coaching philosophies. BB isn't like dungy, he doesnt care how bad he is beating a team in the 3rd and 4th quarter, they are still playing to score.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

Exactly why I will have a hard time not bidding up Brady fairly high.....still even with ideal conditions and top talent, 40 TDs is a big mountain to climb.

Maybe but what has changed so much that you'd predict more than a 20% regression?

I think the Pats D will be worse with the offense staying the same. So i tend to think his numbers will be comparable to last year. I would be shocked if Brady threw for under 40 TD's.

really?? how close did Manning come to 40 the year after he broke the record?IMO he'll be lucky to break 40, more like mid to high 30's

What Manning did the year after he broke the record has no bearing on what Brady will do this year. Totally different coaching philosophies. BB isn't like dungy, he doesnt care how bad he is beating a team in the 3rd and 4th quarter, they are still playing to score.

49/50 TD seasons are anomalies. he will regress, but how much is the 10K question.

 

[Brutis]

Exactly why I will have a hard time not bidding up Brady fairly high.....still even with ideal conditions and top talent, 40 TDs is a big mountain to climb.

Maybe but what has changed so much that you'd predict more than a 20% regression?

I think the Pats D will be worse with the offense staying the same. So i tend to think his numbers will be comparable to last year. I would be shocked if Brady threw for under 40 TD's.

really?? how close did Manning come to 40 the year after he broke the record?IMO he'll be lucky to break 40, more like mid to high 30's

What Manning did the year after he broke the record has no bearing on what Brady will do this year. Totally different coaching philosophies. BB isn't like dungy, he doesnt care how bad he is beating a team in the 3rd and 4th quarter, they are still playing to score.

49/50 TD seasons are anomalies. he will regress, but how much is the 10K question.

OR it can be the start of a nice trend for our hero, Brady Love.

 

[tombonneau]

Pushing aside the subjective Patriot/Brady hate that is going to cloud a lot of people's predictions and attempting to get this thread back on track ...

As a Pats fan, I'd expect Brady to complete about 350 passes (this number could easily be higher, but don't see it being much lower) ... no reason to assume he won't average 12.0 ypc which he has done 3 of last 4 seasons ... brings you to 4200 yards ...

I do expect TDs to obviously dip to a more realistic number ... but I still think he will lead the league in TD passes. I think we'd all agree the NFL has been more pass-friendly in recent years, so looking back at the last 10 years here are the TD passing leaders:

2007 Tom Brady (30) 50 NWE2006 Peyton Manning (30) 31 IND2005 Carson Palmer (26) 32 CIN2004 Peyton Manning (28) 49 IND2003 Brett Favre (34) 32 GNB2002 Tom Brady (25) 28 NWE2001 Kurt Warner (30) 36 STL2000 D. Culpepper (23) 33 MIN Peyton Manning (24) 33 IND1999 Kurt Warner (28) 41 STL1998 Steve Young+ (37) 36 SFO(Ironically, Brady had the high & low over this stretch. )So the average of is about 36 TDs for the passing leader. 33.5 if you want to consider Manning & Brady as outliers; however, I would contend that it isn't a coincidence that an NFL record that had stood (and wasn't sniffed) for 20 years has been broken twice in the past four years.

With an average of 36 TDs, I'm going to say Brady and his offense will still be better than the average passing leader and predict 38.

INTs will likely sneak back into low double-digits ... 12.



4200/38/12

I think that's a very reasonable expectation for Brady this season.

 

[twitch]

Looking at that chart, one of the things that stands out to me is that no QB has led the league 2 years in a row during that span. Safe to say, if Brady were to throw 38TDs, he'd probably be leading the league. Dont see it happening. Id hope for right around 30ish. Close to 40? Dont know how or why, just dont see it happening.

 

[[icon]]

Exactly why I will have a hard time not bidding up Brady fairly high.....still even with ideal conditions and top talent, 40 TDs is a big mountain to climb.

Maybe but what has changed so much that you'd predict more than a 20% regression?

I think the Pats D will be worse with the offense staying the same. So i tend to think his numbers will be comparable to last year. I would be shocked if Brady threw for under 40 TD's.

I don't see the Pats being anywhere near as good as last season, for multitudes of reasons. But I tihnk the biggest one is the SuperBowl loss. I believe it damaged their psyche.Brady 3800 yards, 31 TDs, 15 INTs

I'm not going to argue with your opinion Switz but I would like to ask why you see Brady having his career high in int's (15) this year with the weapons he has at his disposal. He has always been pretty careful with the ball. Why do you see that changing this year?

Switz is the smoo of the shark pool..... contrarian....except without the "being right" part.

 

[[icon]]

Looking at that chart, one of the things that stands out to me is that no QB has led the league 2 years in a row during that span. Safe to say, if Brady were to throw 38TDs, he'd probably be leading the league. Dont see it happening. Id hope for right around 30ish. Close to 40? Dont know how or why, just dont see it happening.

once again... historical data is a cheap crutch when leaned on in isolation. You have to look at what's changed. Is the defense better or worse? Has he gained/lost weapons. Has the line changed dramatically? ARe there lingering efffects from an injury or an expected degradation of talent due to age. Brady is in his prime, healthy and is behind the same line with the same weapons. Sure.. he's going to come down off that number but I think 38-40 TDs is where he lands. Again, that's calling for a pretty good dip in production for no other reason other than "just because".

 

[twitch]

Looking at that chart, one of the things that stands out to me is that no QB has led the league 2 years in a row during that span. Safe to say, if Brady were to throw 38TDs, he'd probably be leading the league. Dont see it happening. Id hope for right around 30ish. Close to 40? Dont know how or why, just dont see it happening.

once again... historical data is a cheap crutch when leaned on in isolation. You have to look at what's changed. Is the defense better or worse? Has he gained/lost weapons. Has the line changed dramatically? ARe there lingering efffects from an injury or an expected degradation of talent due to age. Brady is in his prime, healthy and is behind the same line with the same weapons. Sure.. he's going to come down off that number but I think 38-40 TDs is where he lands. Again, that's calling for a pretty good dip in production for no other reason other than "just because".

Not looking for any crutches, young buck. Have you seen their PASSING D schedule for the upcoming season? 3rd or 4th most difficult in the NFL, according to experts. If I were actually leaning on something, it would be that. My stab at 30ish is no less random than yours at 38-40? Why not just guess 50 again? Do you really expect he'll have 3 or 4 more games where he throws for 5 or 6 TDs? I dont see it happening. Its just logical that teams will play overall better D against them this year, having seen that spectacular O for an entire season. Im not suggesting anyone is going to swell up on them like the Giants, but most teams, including the division opponents, will be better prepared to counter that spread O. Which is once again, part of why I think Maroney is going to be a nasty play this season.

 

[fridayfrenzy]

Historical data is good and all, but using the low amount data from Marino and Manning breaking the TD record doesn't hold much weight with me. You are basing a projection of two instances. It may be the only data available, but it's still way too small to be basing a projection off of.

What does Marino and Manning's next season have to do with Brady? How is a 1985 season relevant to this?

I don't think anyone in their right mind is projecting 50 TDs for Brady, but to base your projection of Brady's TDs on the data of two historical instances doesn't make sense to me.

4100 passing yards

38 passing TDs

100 yards rushing

2 rushing TDs

 

[twitch]

Historical data is good and all, but using the low amount data from Marino and Manning breaking the TD record doesn't hold much weight with me. You are basing a projection of two instances. It may be the only data available, but it's still way too small to be basing a projection off of.

What does Marino and Manning's next season have to do with Brady? How is a 1985 season relevant to this?

I don't think anyone in their right mind is projecting 50 TDs for Brady, but to base your projection of Brady's TDs on the data of two historical instances doesn't make sense to me.

4100 passing yards

38 passing TDs

100 yards rushing

2 rushing TDs

Here's the relevance. And it has nothing to do with 1985. It has everything to do with how opposing defenses consequently prepare to stop your O when you come off the kind of seasons that Marino, Manning and Brady have all had. You throw 48 TDs, and guess what? Teams give you everything they have to prevent that from happening again. Same with 49 and 50TDs. Its not a strange coincidence. Its logic. That chart of the NFL's leading TD passers has 11 seasons of leaders, and not a single Q on that chart has done it back to back. Thats NOT a coincidence. In todays game of gameplanning, film study, matchups, nickel and dime packages and down specialists, you can bet your life teams are going to play New England alot differently this year than what they were last season for the first 12 or so weeks.

 

[tombonneau]

Looking at that chart, one of the things that stands out to me is that no QB has led the league 2 years in a row during that span. Safe to say, if Brady were to throw 38TDs, he'd probably be leading the league. Dont see it happening. Id hope for right around 30ish. Close to 40? Don't know how or why, just dont see it happening.

I noted the same thing, but when you go back to 1980 it isn't uncommon at all. In fact, there was a stretch where Favre, Young & Marino each had back-to-back-to-back years.

2007   	Tom Brady  (30)	  50	  NWE2006	  Peyton Manning (30) 	31 	IND2005	  Carson Palmer (26) 	32 	CIN2004	  Peyton Manning (28) 	49 	IND2003	  Brett Favre (34) 	32 	GNB2002	  Tom Brady (25) 	28 	NWE2001	  Kurt Warner (30) 	36 	STL2000	  Daunte Culpepper (23) 	33 	MIN	Peyton Manning (24) 	33 	IND1999	  Kurt Warner (28) 	41 	STL1998	  Steve Young+ (37) 	36 	SFO[b]1997	  Brett Favre (28) 	35 	GNB1996	  Brett Favre (27) 	39 	GNB1995	  Brett Favre (26) 	38 	GNB1994	  Steve Young+ (33) 	35 	SFO1993	  Steve Young+ (32) 	29 	SFO1992	  Steve Young+ (31) 	25 	SFO[/b]1991	  Jim Kelly+ (31) 	33 	BUF1990	  Warren Moon+ (34) 	33 	HOU[b]1989	  Jim Everett (26) 	29 	RAM1988	  Jim Everett (25) 	31 	RAM[/b]1987	  Joe Montana+ (31) 	31 	SFO[b]1986	  Dan Marino+ (25) 	44 	MIA1985	  Dan Marino+ (24) 	30 	MIA1984	  Dan Marino+ (23) 	48 	MIA[/b]1983	  Lynn Dickey (34) 	32 	GNB1982	  Terry Bradshaw+ (34) 	17 	PIT	Joe Montana+ (26) 	17 	SFO[b]	Dan Fouts+ (31) 	17 	SDG1981	  Dan Fouts+ (30) 	33 	SDG[/b]1980	  Steve Bartkowski (28) 	31 	ATL

I just see this Patriots team as consistent and established as Young's Niners, Marino's Fins, Favre's Packers, etc. Maybe he won't lead the league, but I'll be awfully surprised if he throws fewer than 36 TDs.

 

[twitch]

Looking at that chart, one of the things that stands out to me is that no QB has led the league 2 years in a row during that span. Safe to say, if Brady were to throw 38TDs, he'd probably be leading the league. Dont see it happening. Id hope for right around 30ish. Close to 40? Don't know how or why, just dont see it happening.

I noted the same thing, but when you go back to 1980 it isn't uncommon at all. In fact, there was a stretch where Favre, Young & Marino each had back-to-back-to-back years.

2007   	Tom Brady  (30)	  50	  NWE2006	  Peyton Manning (30) 	31 	IND2005	  Carson Palmer (26) 	32 	CIN2004	  Peyton Manning (28) 	49 	IND2003	  Brett Favre (34) 	32 	GNB2002	  Tom Brady (25) 	28 	NWE2001	  Kurt Warner (30) 	36 	STL2000	  Daunte Culpepper (23) 	33 	MIN	Peyton Manning (24) 	33 	IND1999	  Kurt Warner (28) 	41 	STL1998	  Steve Young+ (37) 	36 	SFO[b]1997	  Brett Favre (28) 	35 	GNB1996	  Brett Favre (27) 	39 	GNB1995	  Brett Favre (26) 	38 	GNB1994	  Steve Young+ (33) 	35 	SFO1993	  Steve Young+ (32) 	29 	SFO1992	  Steve Young+ (31) 	25 	SFO[/b]1991	  Jim Kelly+ (31) 	33 	BUF1990	  Warren Moon+ (34) 	33 	HOU[b]1989	  Jim Everett (26) 	29 	RAM1988	  Jim Everett (25) 	31 	RAM[/b]1987	  Joe Montana+ (31) 	31 	SFO[b]1986	  Dan Marino+ (25) 	44 	MIA1985	  Dan Marino+ (24) 	30 	MIA1984	  Dan Marino+ (23) 	48 	MIA[/b]1983	  Lynn Dickey (34) 	32 	GNB1982	  Terry Bradshaw+ (34) 	17 	PIT	Joe Montana+ (26) 	17 	SFO[b]	Dan Fouts+ (31) 	17 	SDG1981	  Dan Fouts+ (30) 	33 	SDG[/b]1980	  Steve Bartkowski (28) 	31 	ATL

I just see this Patriots team as consistent and established as Young's Niners, Marino's Fins, Favre's Packers, etc. Maybe he won't lead the league, but I'll be awfully surprised if he throws fewer than 36 TDs.

I appreciate that data. But here's the difference in my view. Favre, Marino and Young were ALWAYS #s machines. Brady's done it for a single year. He has no history of generating those kind of #s other than last year. The others had season after season after season of producing mind-numbing #s. So did Fouts, who's also a repeat offender on that list. Brady, imo, is simply too dependent on one single guy to post a monster TD total, and if anything happens to Moss, Brady's back to being completely human. And I dont want to wish any ill will on Moss, but he's older and has been prone to injury recently that's caused him to miss signficant time. Obviously Im in full support that the Pats are every bit as good as any of those other teams. And that Brady is every bit as good as any of those other Qs. But the historical data isnt there with Brady or the Pats' O to expect another monster year. 36 TDs would be brilliant and Id dance on the ceiling if it happened. I just dont see it.

 

[PatsFanCT]

Looking at that chart, one of the things that stands out to me is that no QB has led the league 2 years in a row during that span. Safe to say, if Brady were to throw 38TDs, he'd probably be leading the league. Dont see it happening. Id hope for right around 30ish. Close to 40? Don't know how or why, just dont see it happening.

I noted the same thing, but when you go back to 1980 it isn't uncommon at all. In fact, there was a stretch where Favre, Young & Marino each had back-to-back-to-back years.

2007   	Tom Brady  (30)	  50	  NWE2006	  Peyton Manning (30) 	31 	IND2005	  Carson Palmer (26) 	32 	CIN2004	  Peyton Manning (28) 	49 	IND2003	  Brett Favre (34) 	32 	GNB2002	  Tom Brady (25) 	28 	NWE2001	  Kurt Warner (30) 	36 	STL2000	  Daunte Culpepper (23) 	33 	MIN	Peyton Manning (24) 	33 	IND1999	  Kurt Warner (28) 	41 	STL1998	  Steve Young+ (37) 	36 	SFO[b]1997	  Brett Favre (28) 	35 	GNB1996	  Brett Favre (27) 	39 	GNB1995	  Brett Favre (26) 	38 	GNB1994	  Steve Young+ (33) 	35 	SFO1993	  Steve Young+ (32) 	29 	SFO1992	  Steve Young+ (31) 	25 	SFO[/b]1991	  Jim Kelly+ (31) 	33 	BUF1990	  Warren Moon+ (34) 	33 	HOU[b]1989	  Jim Everett (26) 	29 	RAM1988	  Jim Everett (25) 	31 	RAM[/b]1987	  Joe Montana+ (31) 	31 	SFO[b]1986	  Dan Marino+ (25) 	44 	MIA1985	  Dan Marino+ (24) 	30 	MIA1984	  Dan Marino+ (23) 	48 	MIA[/b]1983	  Lynn Dickey (34) 	32 	GNB1982	  Terry Bradshaw+ (34) 	17 	PIT	Joe Montana+ (26) 	17 	SFO[b]	Dan Fouts+ (31) 	17 	SDG1981	  Dan Fouts+ (30) 	33 	SDG[/b]1980	  Steve Bartkowski (28) 	31 	ATL

I just see this Patriots team as consistent and established as Young's Niners, Marino's Fins, Favre's Packers, etc. Maybe he won't lead the league, but I'll be awfully surprised if he throws fewer than 36 TDs.

I appreciate that data. But here's the difference in my view. Favre, Marino and Young were ALWAYS #s machines. Brady's done it for a single year. He has no history of generating those kind of #s other than last year. The others had season after season after season of producing mind-numbing #s. So did Fouts, who's also a repeat offender on that list. Brady, imo, is simply too dependent on one single guy to post a monster TD total, and if anything happens to Moss, Brady's back to being completely human. And I dont want to wish any ill will on Moss, but he's older and has been prone to injury recently that's caused him to miss signficant time. Obviously Im in full support that the Pats are every bit as good as any of those other teams. And that Brady is every bit as good as any of those other Qs. But the historical data isnt there with Brady or the Pats' O to expect another monster year. 36 TDs would be brilliant and Id dance on the ceiling if it happened. I just dont see it.

twitch, I respect your posts, especially those that you look at objectionably like this one as opposed to homerously (like this one might be), but you can't use the terms "Brady" and "historically" when referring to his TD total. Brady has done pretty well with sub-par receivers over the years. His "historical" years. But he has exactly one year with one of the all time best receivers in Moss and a perfect complement in Welker, with a side order of Stallworth(Jackson)/Gaffney thrown in. So "Historically", with his current weapons at WR, he averages 50 TD's. Granted, he most likely wont hit that mark again this year, or ever, but you can't compare Brady's years without Moss/Welker, to the ones with them... or to Mannings, or Marino's of 24 years ago. I understand that their schedule, although weak, features a fantastic secondary that will slow Brady down, and the teams paying specific attention to the Pass like you pointed out earlier, but with Brady and this offence, 50 is the bar. 36 IMO is very much attainable, and personally, I expect nothing less than 40.

 

[tombonneau]

I think an interesting question is that -- assuming standard FBG scoring -- if you knew Brady would produce a 4500/40/10 season, how high would you take him? Does that merit a top 3 pick?

 

[jurb26]

I think an interesting question is that -- assuming standard FBG scoring -- if you knew Brady would produce a 4500/40/10 season, how high would you take him? Does that merit a top 3 pick?

I'd say yes.

 

[twitch]

I think an interesting question is that -- assuming standard FBG scoring -- if you knew Brady would produce a 4500/40/10 season, how high would you take him? Does that merit a top 3 pick?

Knowing Brady would hit those #s as a certainty, he'd be the clear cut #1 Q, and likely the #1 overall player again in all of fantasy. Choosing a RB in say the 3 hole, like perhaps Steven Jackson would have been chosen in drafts last year in that position, you have no real idea what youre gonna get. You could get 2000 and 20, or you could get 800 and 8. Or worse. Give me Brady's 4500 and 40, and Ill battle trying to find this year's AD in the 3rd or 4th round. Applying the most fundamental of VBD logic, Brady in the 3 hole with those stellar #s would be a no-brainer.

 

[twitch]

Looking at that chart, one of the things that stands out to me is that no QB has led the league 2 years in a row during that span. Safe to say, if Brady were to throw 38TDs, he'd probably be leading the league. Dont see it happening. Id hope for right around 30ish. Close to 40? Don't know how or why, just dont see it happening.

I noted the same thing, but when you go back to 1980 it isn't uncommon at all. In fact, there was a stretch where Favre, Young & Marino each had back-to-back-to-back years.

2007   	Tom Brady  (30)	  50	  NWE2006	  Peyton Manning (30) 	31 	IND2005	  Carson Palmer (26) 	32 	CIN2004	  Peyton Manning (28) 	49 	IND2003	  Brett Favre (34) 	32 	GNB2002	  Tom Brady (25) 	28 	NWE2001	  Kurt Warner (30) 	36 	STL2000	  Daunte Culpepper (23) 	33 	MIN	Peyton Manning (24) 	33 	IND1999	  Kurt Warner (28) 	41 	STL1998	  Steve Young+ (37) 	36 	SFO[b]1997	  Brett Favre (28) 	35 	GNB1996	  Brett Favre (27) 	39 	GNB1995	  Brett Favre (26) 	38 	GNB1994	  Steve Young+ (33) 	35 	SFO1993	  Steve Young+ (32) 	29 	SFO1992	  Steve Young+ (31) 	25 	SFO[/b]1991	  Jim Kelly+ (31) 	33 	BUF1990	  Warren Moon+ (34) 	33 	HOU[b]1989	  Jim Everett (26) 	29 	RAM1988	  Jim Everett (25) 	31 	RAM[/b]1987	  Joe Montana+ (31) 	31 	SFO[b]1986	  Dan Marino+ (25) 	44 	MIA1985	  Dan Marino+ (24) 	30 	MIA1984	  Dan Marino+ (23) 	48 	MIA[/b]1983	  Lynn Dickey (34) 	32 	GNB1982	  Terry Bradshaw+ (34) 	17 	PIT	Joe Montana+ (26) 	17 	SFO[b]	Dan Fouts+ (31) 	17 	SDG1981	  Dan Fouts+ (30) 	33 	SDG[/b]1980	  Steve Bartkowski (28) 	31 	ATL

I just see this Patriots team as consistent and established as Young's Niners, Marino's Fins, Favre's Packers, etc. Maybe he won't lead the league, but I'll be awfully surprised if he throws fewer than 36 TDs.

I appreciate that data. But here's the difference in my view. Favre, Marino and Young were ALWAYS #s machines. Brady's done it for a single year. He has no history of generating those kind of #s other than last year. The others had season after season after season of producing mind-numbing #s. So did Fouts, who's also a repeat offender on that list. Brady, imo, is simply too dependent on one single guy to post a monster TD total, and if anything happens to Moss, Brady's back to being completely human. And I dont want to wish any ill will on Moss, but he's older and has been prone to injury recently that's caused him to miss signficant time. Obviously Im in full support that the Pats are every bit as good as any of those other teams. And that Brady is every bit as good as any of those other Qs. But the historical data isnt there with Brady or the Pats' O to expect another monster year. 36 TDs would be brilliant and Id dance on the ceiling if it happened. I just dont see it.

twitch, I respect your posts, especially those that you look at objectionably like this one as opposed to homerously (like this one might be), but you can't use the terms "Brady" and "historically" when referring to his TD total. Brady has done pretty well with sub-par receivers over the years. His "historical" years. But he has exactly one year with one of the all time best receivers in Moss and a perfect complement in Welker, with a side order of Stallworth(Jackson)/Gaffney thrown in. So "Historically", with his current weapons at WR, he averages 50 TD's. Granted, he most likely wont hit that mark again this year, or ever, but you can't compare Brady's years without Moss/Welker, to the ones with them... or to Mannings, or Marino's of 24 years ago. I understand that their schedule, although weak, features a fantastic secondary that will slow Brady down, and the teams paying specific attention to the Pass like you pointed out earlier, but with Brady and this offence, 50 is the bar. 36 IMO is very much attainable, and personally, I expect nothing less than 40.

I hear where youre coming from. Brady hasnt had Moss all these years. Therefore, there's been no mass accumulation of stats to base a history on. I get that. But really the point I was suggesting that I failed to thoroughly explain was the offensive philosophy of the clubs mentioned. Steve Young's 'Niners. He was leading the most brilliant WCO ever devised, and had Jerry Rice as a centerpiece. Favre leading a Mike Holmgren WCO cut from that same Bill Walsh cloth. Dan Fouts running a Don Coryell O that really had never been seen before. And Marino was just a passer without peer. As great a QB as Brady has become, Marino was a superior passer to him and just about every QB who's every lived. And with regards to that Dolphins O philosophy of the Marino days, we'd all be hard pressed to reveal even a single name of a RB worth a minute of conversation. Those teams passed, passed and passed some more. And with regards to titles attained by those great passing teams and their respective QBs, they had 2 total titles. That San Fran title team won because Deion Sanders came to town. Take Deion off that team and theyre not getting by Dallas. Put Deion on Dallas, and the Cowboys are wearing the ring. And the Packers may never have won without the greatness and sheer domination of Reggie White. Take him off those teams, and theyre the 80s Chargers. Who also, like Miami, never won squat for rings. Point being, if Belichick wants to attain another title, he needs to guide NE's O back to the days of balance and a reliable ground attack. Id expect fully that as a football historian, noone knows that better than BB himself. Which is ultimately why I think theyll calm down a little with the aerial assault this year. You win titles with D, offensive balance and by running the football. Personally, I expect this year theyll be aiming for a ring. Not #s.