Player Spotlight: Tom Brady (1 Viewer)

[Jason Wood]

2009 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. Last year, we published more than 120 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters. This year will be no different.

Each week we will post a list of players to be discussed. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discussion expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Tom Brady, QB, New England Patriots

Player Page Link: Tom Brady Player Page

Each article will include:

Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads
FBG Projections
Consensus Member ProjectionsThe Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

Focus commentary on the player in question, and your expectations for said player
Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
To be included in the final synopsis and consensus outlook, you MUST provide projections for the playerProjections should include (at a minimum):

For QBs: Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDsNow let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

 

[David Yudkin]

I suspect that this one will have perhaps the broadest range of projections this offseason . . .

 

[dansav]

3900/35/11

 

[wolfie]

Looking for a good season. Not up to 2007, but a little better than his average excluding 2007 totals.

352/547 4037yds 28 tds 13ints 36rushes for 90yds and 2tds

Love to have him as my qb1, but know another owner is going to value him at close to his 2008 totals, so he won't be on my redraft and auction teams.

 

[David Yudkin]

Early word so far at OTAs has been that Brady is struggling with his accuracy and timing. He's also been dropping back and moving around a little gingerly in the pocket and appears to be working through the kinks of recovering from major knee surgery. That's all to be expected, especially since he hasn't really played much football in almost 18 months. I would translate what is getting reported in the press as "Brady should be 100% physically come Opening Day." But I think there will be a learning curve for him to get back into the swing of things and it would not surprise me to see him struggle the first few games this year to prduce like he is accustomed to producing.

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

Can we just link other threads?

 

[SeniorVBDStudent]

85% of the yards, 75% of the TDs, and 120% of the Ints from 2007. More rushing success for the Pats this year....

 

[a_troll00]

Early word so far at OTAs has been that Brady is struggling with his accuracy and timing. He's also been dropping back and moving around a little gingerly in the pocket and appears to be working through the kinks of recovering from major knee surgery. That's all to be expected, especially since he hasn't really played much football in almost 18 months. I would translate what is getting reported in the press as "Brady should be 100% physically come Opening Day." But I think there will be a learning curve for him to get back into the swing of things and it would not surprise me to see him struggle the first few games this year to prduce like he is accustomed to producing.

The early part of the season will most likely be pretty rough for Brady. Not only because of rust, his bum leg needs to get back into shape as well. If he's not able to really step into his throws that will definitely affect is distance and accuracy. He may be back into form come midseason, but anyone who spends a first round pick on him will probably be disappointed.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

He has Randy Moss and Wes Welker to throw to, then has Joey Galloway and Greg Lewis in the 3 and 4 holes...they have beefed up the TE position, someone is going to be reliable,and he has a plethora of backs at his dispoal for different situations. Fred Taylor, Sammy Morris, and Fred Taylor has a total of 11 TDs rushing last season, who knows anout Maroney...but even lets say the Pats can avg 1 rushing TD a game.

Now let's talk about the defense. It is very strong along the DL, pretty good at LB, and pretty unknown at DB...I think the Pats are going to be suspect in the secondary and just might have to put 24-30 on the board many weeks to win. Not to mention that Coach Potato Sack isn't shy about scoring until the other team waves the white flag.

I think Brady can easily have about 3800-4200 yds, 28-35 TDs, maybe more, and there really are not many QBs that can throw for 30+ TDs. Remember everyone was gung ho about Big Ben reaching 30 again and he didn't clear 20. Brady is money and other than Drew Brees who is losing WRs to injuries left and right, I can't think of another QB I would rather have this season. Schedule plays out well too...rememeber they didn't win the division or even make the playoffs last year. Payback is a #####, and the NFL is going to get a big dose of Brady this year.

 

[David Yudkin]

Schedule plays out well too...rememeber they didn't win the division or even make the playoffs last year.

This makes practically no difference anymore. The AFC East teams play 14 common opponents and their other two games are AFC North second place and AFC West second place. So they get the Ravens and Broncos instead of the Steelers and Chargers. There's not much difference in finishing first or second scheduling wise. On paper they'd rather face BAL and DEN but things change each year, sometimes unexpectedly . . .

 

[fightingillini]

High risk for 2009, but the upside will be hard to ignore in round 2. Still has all the weapons to throw to and the offense is still high octane.

4100 yds passing

31 TDs

13 Int

25 yds rushing, 1 TD

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Schedule plays out well too...rememeber they didn't win the division or even make the playoffs last year.

This makes practically no difference anymore. The AFC East teams play 14 common opponents and their other two games are AFC North second place and AFC West second place. So they get the Ravens and Broncos instead of the Steelers and Chargers. There's not much difference in finishing first or second scheduling wise. On paper they'd rather face BAL and DEN but things change each year, sometimes unexpectedly . . .

Alright Archibald you asked for it...Miami wins the division and they play @Atl, INDY, @San Diego to open the season so they start right out against 3 playoff teams, 2 of them on the road vs New England which opens with BUFF, @nyj, ATL...so they get 2 cupcakes and Atlanta at home a couple weeks after Brady gets his bearings straight. Miami could easily open 0-3 vs NE which has a decisive advantage.October, Miami will play BUFF, NYJ, Bye, NO...they don't leave the state of Florida but they will pay for that dearly in November. Also, the home games Miami has are not being played at 1:00 when the heat and humidity is unbearable for other teams coming in. Twice on MNF at night, and a couple of 4:00 games. Meanwhile, New England will face BAL, @Den, TN, @TB...again they get the playoff teams at home, cupcakes on the road. November...death for Miami as they are ont he road the whole month. @nyj, @NE, TB, @Car(3 days rest), @Buff...that is just brutal. OK, I lied they have one quick home game against the Bucs but 4 road games in 1 month. Meanwhile back on the Patriots breeze thru the park...bye, MIA, @Indy, NYJ, @NO...nothing back to back on the road there, only Indy will really give them a huge fight IMO. December...Miami will face NE, @Jax, @Tn, HOU, and PIT to close the season...brutal brutal brutal. Any of those teams that were down will be much better this season and Houston is going to shock em all...Miami might not win 5 games this year, would not surprise me in the least. Please don't be so obtuse to the notion that New England is playing the same schedule as Miami...they aren't in anyway the same schedules. They are laid out miles apart in terms of being tough. I don't feel bad for Miami, just a realist about it.

 

[brutha]

top QB this year, worthy of a 2d round pick (no QB is first round worth IMO)!

 

[Michael Fox Fan]

Please don't be so obtuse to the notion that New England is playing the same schedule as Miami...they aren't in anyway the same schedules. They are laid out miles apart in terms of being tough. I don't feel bad for Miami, just a realist about it.

Why do people keep insisting that strength of schedule based on prior year record means ANYTHING? Particularly for fantasy projections?

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

Please don't be so obtuse to the notion that New England is playing the same schedule as Miami...they aren't in anyway the same schedules. They are laid out miles apart in terms of being tough. I don't feel bad for Miami, just a realist about it.

Why do people keep insisting that strength of schedule based on prior year record means ANYTHING? Particularly for fantasy projections?

I think defensive projections have about as much merit as offensive projections.To say you have absolutely no guess whether Pitt will have a good defense or crap defense is probably a little dishonest --- I'll bet that if there were cash on the table and the choices were Den or Pitt, you wouldn't be so excited to take Den.Of course, that doesn't mean any projections have to pan out like you expect, but you can say that about any projections.This whole site revolves around projections for individual offensive players, but then some will say predicting offenses as a unit to determine SOS is impossible --- I think that's a little inconsistent. I'd take my chances against 16 games of Oakland, rather than 16 Pittsburghs, or whoever.

 

[rzrback77]

Schedule plays out well too...rememeber they didn't win the division or even make the playoffs last year.

This makes practically no difference anymore. The AFC East teams play 14 common opponents and their other two games are AFC North second place and AFC West second place. So they get the Ravens and Broncos instead of the Steelers and Chargers. There's not much difference in finishing first or second scheduling wise. On paper they'd rather face BAL and DEN but things change each year, sometimes unexpectedly . . .

MOP lays out that the flow of the schedule makes a difference in that Miami faces three tough foes out of the gate. Fact of the matter is that there schedules only have two games different. Miami gets Pitt and SD while New England faces Baltimore and Denver. It doesn't make near the difference on where you finish the year before as it used to.

 

[rzrback77]

Tom Brady is a tough call. The fact that he hurt his knee in the very first game and will have a full twelve months to recover helps, but with injuries you just never know what the total effect will be. I just can't see drafting Brady at his current ADP of QB2 and 21 overall. There are just too many options out there and the risk is too great. Consider how slowly Peyton Manning started last year if you think that Brady is immune.

He has great weapons and typically the Patriots throw and throw and then throw some more, but I just can't sign up.

Tom Brady 320 completions 520 attempts 3536 yds 6.8 ypa 26 TDs and 15 ints adding 25 rushes for 75 yards and 1 TD

 

[mikel0254]

4000YDs/29TDs/15INTs

Prediction: It might take him a week or two to get back into it (at which time people will start to worry). I'd only give it a few weeks before he starts trusting the knee and turns it on

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

Tom Brady is a tough call. The fact that he hurt his knee in the very first game and will have a full twelve months to recover helps, but with injuries you just never know what the total effect will be. I just can't see drafting Brady at his current ADP of QB2 and 21 overall. There are just too many options out there and the risk is too great. Consider how slowly Peyton Manning started last year if you think that Brady is immune.

Manning had 12 months?

 

[rzrback77]

Tom Brady is a tough call. The fact that he hurt his knee in the very first game and will have a full twelve months to recover helps, but with injuries you just never know what the total effect will be. I just can't see drafting Brady at his current ADP of QB2 and 21 overall. There are just too many options out there and the risk is too great. Consider how slowly Peyton Manning started last year if you think that Brady is immune.

Manning had 12 months?

No, he did not have the same time that Brady has had. But, Manning's injury was not even close to the same category and seriousness as Brady's.

 

[mozzy84]

Knee should be fully healed come week one. He will have a full camp with moss and co. to get tuned up. I have no faith in the running game or NE using it, will be a pass happy offense again this year.

4200YDs/36TDs/16INTs

 

[David Yudkin]

Knee should be fully healed come week one. He will have a full camp with moss and co. to get tuned up. I have no faith in the running game or NE using it, will be a pass happy offense again this year. 4200YDs/36TDs/16INTs

You may have no faith in the running game, but apparently Bill Belichick does. New England has ranked 4th, 9th, and 6th in rushing attempts the last three years . . . and they've been Top 5 in rushing TD each of those seasons. I think people confuse "not having a dominent back" for being "unable to or inept at running the football." The Pats may not be the 90s Broncos, but they're not the Cardinals either.

 

[Phlash]

Knee should be fully healed come week one. He will have a full camp with moss and co. to get tuned up. I have no faith in the running game or NE using it, will be a pass happy offense again this year. 4200YDs/36TDs/16INTs

You may have no faith in the running game, but apparently Bill Belichick does. New England has ranked 4th, 9th, and 6th in rushing attempts the last three years . . . and they've been Top 5 in rushing TD each of those seasons. I think people confuse "not having a dominent back" for being "unable to or inept at running the football." The Pats may not be the 90s Broncos, but they're not the Cardinals either.

Even when they have the passing game clicking, BB still runs the ball. Got to the keep those defenses honest.

 

[augiedoggie]

4000YDs/29TDs/15INTsPrediction: It might take him a week or two to get back into it (at which time people will start to worry). I'd only give it a few weeks before he starts trusting the knee and turns it on

His knee may never be OK. Once a knee has been badly injured it is always liable to re-injury, or it may just not ever function as well.It's not like just changing a tire. He had a very major knee injury, big-time surgery, and really bad post-op complications.He has been a wonderful player, and maybe will be again. I wish him well.Personally I'm looking elsewhere. I'll try to get the highest quality WR and RB with my top two picks, then look for a decent QB like McNabb or Warner a little later. That way I have a better shot at locking up some quality early without worrying about his knee.

 

[stickboy]

Knee should be fully healed come week one. He will have a full camp with moss and co. to get tuned up. I have no faith in the running game or NE using it, will be a pass happy offense again this year. 4200YDs/36TDs/16INTs

You may have no faith in the running game, but apparently Bill Belichick does. New England has ranked 4th, 9th, and 6th in rushing attempts the last three years . . . and they've been Top 5 in rushing TD each of those seasons. I think people confuse "not having a dominent back" for being "unable to or inept at running the football." The Pats may not be the 90s Broncos, but they're not the Cardinals either.

My guess is around 4000 yds, 33 TD, 10 int., probably more sacks than expected given some mobility issues with the knee. Moss and Welker likely will both have 90-100 catches as Galloway and Lewis can both help stretch the field. The defense is improved, but not great so I expect higher scoring affairs. Couple that with a RBBC (Taylor/Mauroney) that keeps the defense honest, and a spread the ball around offense including Faulk and one of the new TE's that adapts to the opponents weaknesses results in a lot of points for Brady, Moss, and Welker.