Player Spotlight: Torry Holt (1 Viewer)

[Jason Wood]

2008 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. Last year, we published more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters. This year will be no different.

Each week we will post a list of players to be discussed. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discussion expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Torry Holt, WR, St. Louis Rams

Player Page Link: Torry Holt Player Page

Each article will include:

Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads
FBG Projections
Consensus Member ProjectionsThe Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

Focus commentary on the player in question, and your expectations for said player
Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
To be included in the final synopsis and consensus outlook, you MUST provide projections for the playerProjections should include (at a minimum):

For QBs: Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDsNow let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

 

[JPeso]

With Reverend Ike out of town, will Holt's numbers increase or decrease? A lot hinges on how Saunders utilizes Jackson and the rookie WRs. Bennett is a non-factor. Action Jackson will keep the defense honest. High-end WR2 in PPR redrafts.

95 catches, 1235 yards, 13.00 YPC, 8 TD

 

[Ministry of Pain]

88 catches, 1,180 yds, 8 TD

 

[radballs]

95 receptions, 1,250 yards, 9 TDs

 

[The Man with the Plan]

The offense couldn't be any worse than last season when he put up 93-1189-7. With Isaac Bruce gone Marc Bulger could wind up leaning on him even more this season. I could see him with over 100 catches this season.

100-1280-9

A good #1 receiver (especially in PPR leagues) and a great #2 wide receiver.

 

[Winning IS Everything]

Even with an ailing knee and a subpar, injury riddled team offensive season Holt was still the model of consistency last year. He is a near lock for 90+ catches, 1000+ yards and 7+ touchdowns. Holt will be the primary option in the passing game, and a healthy Steven Jackson will keep defenses honest. I see a slight improvment over last year.

95 - 1275 - 9 TD's.

 

[Tanner9919]

Different offense..Santana Moss caught 84 balls in Saunders' offense in Washington ( 84/1483/9), but, he has speed to kill. The Rams' offense is in transition. Without Bruce around to draw coverage away from Holt, I think teams will roll their coverage towards him , forcing Bennett to beat them.

Randy McMichael caught 39 balls for the Rams last season, he's going to catch 70+ this season..Al Saunders LOVES to call plays that focus on the TE position.

Holt will get his numbers, but in each of the past two seasons, his YPC is down compared to 2004 and previous years..

in 2004 he avg'd 14.6 per catch, he's now down to 12.8.

80/960/5..

 

[Yitbos69]

100/1300/9

If everyone can stay healthy It should be a good year for the Rams O

 

[Michael Fox Fan]

Different offense..Santana Moss caught 84 balls in Saunders' offense in Washington ( 84/1483/9), but, he has speed to kill. The Rams' offense is in transition. Without Bruce around to draw coverage away from Holt, I think teams will roll their coverage towards him , forcing Bennett to beat them.

Randy McMichael caught 39 balls for the Rams last season, he's going to catch 70+ this season..Al Saunders LOVES to call plays that focus on the TE position.

Holt will get his numbers, but in each of the past two seasons, his YPC is down compared to 2004 and previous years..

in 2004 he avg'd 14.6 per catch, he's now down to 12.8.

80/960/5..

Do you REALLY think teams weren't already rolling coverage toward Holt the past few years? Holt has been the #1 option in STL for a long, long time. He's been facing double teams virtually his entire career.90 catches

1,200 yards

8 TDs

 

[Tau837]

Do you REALLY think teams weren't already rolling coverage toward Holt the past few years? Holt has been the #1 option in STL for a long, long time. He's been facing double teams virtually his entire career.

:(

 

[travdogg]

1189-7 was amazing considering Brock Berlin actually started games for St.Louis. I don't think losing Bruce hurts one bit. Bruce would have lost his job to a healthy Bennett anyway.

Assuming Bulger stays healthy I could see 100-1300-11. He'll be top-5 in PPR leagues. Probably 7th-9th in standard leagues.

ETA: One of the reasons Saunders was brought in was because of his relationship with Holt from their earlier St. Louis days.

I'd be targeting Holt in every draft as he'll fall out of the top-10 in many drafts.

 

[css2373]

I believe that their O-line will play much better this year and Jackson will go off, thus helping Holt maintain his lofty numbers

98 catches 1175 yds 9 TDs

 

[by_the_sea_wannabe]

90 1171 8

 

[jurb26]

95 receptions, 1200 yds, 8 TDs.

 

[sfl49er]

If holt gets 100 catches and I think he'll get more, then you have to believe with Bruce gone, there will be an even bigger attack at not letting him get deep. If he can keep his great route running and stamina this year and be injury free, I think he'll have the same pro bowl numbers with a slight less YPC.

105, 9.5ypc, 998, with a few more tds at 10

 

[T Bell]

If holt gets 100 catches and I think he'll get more, then you have to believe with Bruce gone, there will be an even bigger attack at not letting him get deep. If he can keep his great route running and stamina this year and be injury free, I think he'll have the same pro bowl numbers with a slight less YPC. 105, 9.5ypc, 998, with a few more tds at 10

9.5 yards per catch is poor for a TE, much less a WR. The problem with Holt is that he no longer has any help to use to take defensive attention away from him, unless Avery gets up to speed in a hurry. The other problem is that the line needs to protect the QB and give him time. Assuming those things, there's no way that Holt gets less than 12 yards per catch. Assuming health (which I always do in projections absent positive information to the contrary), I'd project him for:105/1312/9I think that that's relatively conservative, and he could exceed those yardage and TD numbers with a solid offensive showing by the team.

 

[MAC_32]

Holt did not look the same last year, it was probably due to the knee problem but is it any better? will it ever get any better? I'm not sold, I don't think he's worth the price he's going for. He can't run all the routes he used to, he doesn't have that second gear anymore, and if the knee continues to hobble him separation will continue to be an issue. I think his WR1 days are over, at best he's a WR2. Somebody else is going to have to step up in the St Louis passing game sooner rather than later, I don't think Bennett's that guy; one of the rookies, Hagans, or McMichael will have to exceed expectations.

 

[T Bell]

Holt did not look the same last year, it was probably due to the knee problem but is it any better? will it ever get any better? I'm not sold, I don't think he's worth the price he's going for. He can't run all the routes he used to, he doesn't have that second gear anymore, and if the knee continues to hobble him separation will continue to be an issue. I think his WR1 days are over, at best he's a WR2. Somebody else is going to have to step up in the St Louis passing game sooner rather than later, I don't think Bennett's that guy; one of the rookies, Hagans, or McMichael will have to exceed expectations.

Here's the problem with what you said- this decline you identified is not apparent at all in his numbers last year versus previous years, especially when you also factor in how injury-riddled that offense was. Maybe he declines - that happens to everyone at some point - but without something more to point to than last year's injuries, I don't think a good case can be made for that decline to occur this year versus next, or the one after, etc.

 

[reg]

If holt gets 100 catches and I think he'll get more, then you have to believe with Bruce gone, there will be an even bigger attack at not letting him get deep. If he can keep his great route running and stamina this year and be injury free, I think he'll have the same pro bowl numbers with a slight less YPC. 105, 9.5ypc, 998, with a few more tds at 10

In the last 6 years only seven guys have caught more than 50 passes and averaged 9.5 ypc or less.Peerless Price (WR)Bubba Franks (TE)Jermaine Wiggins (TE)Jabar Gaffney (WR)Troy Brown (WR)Freddie Jones (TE)Jeremy Shockey (TE)I think it is highly unlikely that he joins that crowd.ETA: sorry 6 years not 5.

 

[MAC_32]

Holt did not look the same last year, it was probably due to the knee problem but is it any better? will it ever get any better? I'm not sold, I don't think he's worth the price he's going for. He can't run all the routes he used to, he doesn't have that second gear anymore, and if the knee continues to hobble him separation will continue to be an issue. I think his WR1 days are over, at best he's a WR2. Somebody else is going to have to step up in the St Louis passing game sooner rather than later, I don't think Bennett's that guy; one of the rookies, Hagans, or McMichael will have to exceed expectations.

Here's the problem with what you said- this decline you identified is not apparent at all in his numbers last year versus previous years, especially when you also factor in how injury-riddled that offense was. Maybe he declines - that happens to everyone at some point - but without something more to point to than last year's injuries, I don't think a good case can be made for that decline to occur this year versus next, or the one after, etc.

His YPC peaked in 04, declined significantly into 05 and has remained relatively steady since. It's not going back up and another drop is imminent, the question being "when." His TD #'s were down, product of a bad offense? Maybe. Could also be he couldn't get open as much in the red zone/deep as he used to. My eyes saw the latter.I just don't think that risk is worth a 3rd round pick which is what he's going for, there are safer, younger options available there than him. 4th round? Maybe. Into the 5th? Absolutely, but not a 3rd.

 

[Tau837]

Holt did not look the same last year, it was probably due to the knee problem but is it any better? will it ever get any better? I'm not sold, I don't think he's worth the price he's going for. He can't run all the routes he used to, he doesn't have that second gear anymore, and if the knee continues to hobble him separation will continue to be an issue. I think his WR1 days are over, at best he's a WR2. Somebody else is going to have to step up in the St Louis passing game sooner rather than later, I don't think Bennett's that guy; one of the rookies, Hagans, or McMichael will have to exceed expectations.

Here's the problem with what you said- this decline you identified is not apparent at all in his numbers last year versus previous years, especially when you also factor in how injury-riddled that offense was. Maybe he declines - that happens to everyone at some point - but without something more to point to than last year's injuries, I don't think a good case can be made for that decline to occur this year versus next, or the one after, etc.

His YPC peaked in 04, declined significantly into 05 and has remained relatively steady since. It's not going back up and another drop is imminent, the question being "when." His TD #'s were down, product of a bad offense? Maybe. Could also be he couldn't get open as much in the red zone/deep as he used to. My eyes saw the latter.I just don't think that risk is worth a 3rd round pick which is what he's going for, there are safer, younger options available there than him. 4th round? Maybe. Into the 5th? Absolutely, but not a 3rd.

LOL at Torry Holt sliding to the 5th round (ETA: in redraft). In an 8 team league, maybe...

 

[MAC_32]

Holt did not look the same last year, it was probably due to the knee problem but is it any better? will it ever get any better? I'm not sold, I don't think he's worth the price he's going for. He can't run all the routes he used to, he doesn't have that second gear anymore, and if the knee continues to hobble him separation will continue to be an issue. I think his WR1 days are over, at best he's a WR2. Somebody else is going to have to step up in the St Louis passing game sooner rather than later, I don't think Bennett's that guy; one of the rookies, Hagans, or McMichael will have to exceed expectations.

Here's the problem with what you said- this decline you identified is not apparent at all in his numbers last year versus previous years, especially when you also factor in how injury-riddled that offense was. Maybe he declines - that happens to everyone at some point - but without something more to point to than last year's injuries, I don't think a good case can be made for that decline to occur this year versus next, or the one after, etc.

His YPC peaked in 04, declined significantly into 05 and has remained relatively steady since. It's not going back up and another drop is imminent, the question being "when." His TD #'s were down, product of a bad offense? Maybe. Could also be he couldn't get open as much in the red zone/deep as he used to. My eyes saw the latter.I just don't think that risk is worth a 3rd round pick which is what he's going for, there are safer, younger options available there than him. 4th round? Maybe. Into the 5th? Absolutely, but not a 3rd.

LOL at Torry Holt sliding to the 5th round. In an 8 team league, maybe...

Did I say he would? I'm saying that's closer to where I have him valued, I'd much rather have a Boldin, Jennings, Marshall, Plax, Welker (PPR), or Housh than Holt. At least in early mocks those are the types of guys being available in the 4th round range.

 

[Banger]

yawn...another 95-1200-8 year from Holt. As consistent year to year as they come....

2000 16 82 1635 19.9 6 200

2001 16 81 1363 16.8 7 178

2002 16 91 1302 14.3 4 156

2003 16 117 1696 14.5 12 242

2004 16 94 1372 14.6 10 197

2005 14 102 1331 13.0 9 187

2006 16 93 1188 12.8 10 179

2007 16 93 1189 12.8 7 161

 

[Todem]

With Reverend Ike out of town, will Holt's numbers increase or decrease? A lot hinges on how Saunders utilizes Jackson and the rookie WRs. Bennett is a non-factor. Action Jackson will keep the defense honest. High-end WR2 in PPR redrafts.95 catches, 1235 yards, 13.00 YPC, 8 TD

Holt represents great value this year and next for dynasty teams as well as redraft leagues. The guy is in my mind second to only Marvin Harrison (up till last year) as far as fantasy consistency is concerned. You can rely on Holt for good numbers week in week out and that is a huge asset to any squad.97 rec 1375 yards 11 TD's

 

[Byron_nyc]

Another year, another great season from Mr. Holt. The O as a whole will be better than last year, which lowers your risk. If he falls out of the first two rounds in your draft, grab him and love life.

95-1200-8

 

[gianmarco]

Another guy that plummeted that was taken at 4.13 in a startup 14 team draft that favors WR/TE scoring.

 

[Todem]

Another guy that plummeted that was taken at 4.13 in a startup 14 team draft that favors WR/TE scoring.

I took him as my #1 in one of 2 start up's I am in this year at 5.01 (same spot as yours but a 12 teamer). Superb Value.

 

[Iwannabeacowboybaby!]

I can't help but get the feeling Holt is on a slight decline. He seems to be getting dinged up and playing hurt (to his credit) all the time. He's been a great wide receiver and extremely consistent producer in fantasy football. Solid but not earthshattering numbers for Holt this year.

1100 yards and 7 Td's, 85 receptions

 

[sfl49er]

If holt gets 100 catches and I think he'll get more, then you have to believe with Bruce gone, there will be an even bigger attack at not letting him get deep. If he can keep his great route running and stamina this year and be injury free, I think he'll have the same pro bowl numbers with a slight less YPC. 105, 9.5ypc, 998, with a few more tds at 10

In the last 6 years only seven guys have caught more than 50 passes and averaged 9.5 ypc or less.Peerless Price (WR)Bubba Franks (TE)Jermaine Wiggins (TE)Jabar Gaffney (WR)Troy Brown (WR)Freddie Jones (TE)Jeremy Shockey (TE)I think it is highly unlikely that he joins that crowd.ETA: sorry 6 years not 5.

Yeah, you're probably right, Holt has a passion to get yards too. Reevaluating this and I was wrong. No way he wont get a thousand.100-105, 1250, 10

 

[Jon_Moore]

I had to come back and hit this guy

He's one of the best and most consistent in the game. The offense will be a ton better this year with Pace healthy, Bulger healthy, and the rest of the offensive line as well. Hopefully Holt can remain 100% all season as well.

96 Receptions

1267 Yards

9 TDs

He's going in the late 3rd round, depending on how you draft, you can have him as your WR2, which will be huge.

 

[The Man With No Name]

yawn...another 95-1200-8 year from Holt. As consistent year to year as they come....2000 16 82 1635 19.9 6 200 2001 16 81 1363 16.8 7 178 2002 16 91 1302 14.3 4 156 2003 16 117 1696 14.5 12 242 2004 16 94 1372 14.6 10 197 2005 14 102 1331 13.0 9 187 2006 16 93 1188 12.8 10 179 2007 16 93 1189 12.8 7 161

I predict:93 catches1188.5 yards8.5 td'sThe consistency continues

 

[BigRed]

Holt seems to be going lower than makes sense to me for a guy who's been a near-lock 90/1100/9 or 10 kinda guy. Last year he "only" had about 90/1200/7 and that's w/all the problems they had. He is getting older and maybe a notch slower but seems fine. Should be great value.