Player Spotlight: Warrick Dunn (1 Viewer)

[Jason Wood]

2007 Player Spotlight Series

Over the course of the offseason, we will be evaluating a multitude of players at every fantasy position. One such way we go about that is through the Player Spotlight series. Think of the Spotlights as a permanent record on some of the more intriguing players for the upcoming season. Each Spotlight will be featured in an article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Warrick Dunn, RB, Atlanta Falcons

Player Page Link: Warrick Dunn Player Page

Each article will include:

Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads
FBG Projections
Consensus Member ProjectionsThe Rules

In order for this thread to provide sustainable value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

Focus commentary on the player in question, and your expectations for said player
Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
To be included in the final synopsis and consensus outlook, you MUST provide projections for the playerProjections should include (at a minimum):

For QBs: Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDsBest of Luck and ENJOY!

 

[shadyridr]

Dunn is too talented to just become a backup to Norwood. Norwood is too talented to let Dunn get the bulk of the carries. I think this will be a full RBBC this season with an equal 50/50 split. This makes them both useless as nothing more than a RB3. Now of course if one of them gets hurt then the backup becomes that much more valuable with Norwood having more upside because we already know what to get out of Dunn. So I will project them with a 50/50 split of appx 400 carries since this should be a run first, run often team. I will give Norwood the better ypc.

200 att, 800 yds, 4 tds, 25 rec, 200 yds, 0 tds

 

[rzrback77]

Warrick Dunn has been a productive and consistent running back for the Atlanta Falcons. However, this season he is recovering from an off-season surgery, he has a new head coach fresh out of the NCAA, he has lost his outstanding offensive line coach Alex Gibbs, the Falcons are employing a power running game for which he is not well suited, and oh yes he is 32 years old.

Over the past five seasons, he has the following stats:

02 - 15 gms 230 rushese 927 yds (4.0 ypc) 7 TDs 50 catches 377 yds 2 TDs

03 - 11 gms 125 rushese 672 yds (5.4 ypc) 3 TDs 37 catches 336 yds 2 TDs

04 - 16 gms 265 rushese 1165 yds (4.2 ypc) 9 TDs 29 catches 294 yds 0 TDs

05 - 16 gms 280 rushese 1416 yds (5.1 ypc) 3 TDs 29 catches 220 yds 1 TD

06 - 16 gms 286 rushese 1140 yds (4.0 ypc) 4 TDs 22 catches 170 yds 1 TD

The last three seasons in particular, he has been an excellent yardage producer, just short on the TDs. But, he's 32. The best season in the recent past for a 32 year old RB has been Mile Anderson in Denver where he had 1014 rushing yards and 212 receiving yards and 13 TDs producing 201 fantasy points.

So, to project Dunn with anything resembling his past three seasons would represent one of the best years a 32 year old has had recently. With all the changes and the competition from Jerious Norwood, I just don't see it.

Warrick Dunn 170 carries 680 yards (4.0 ypc) 2 TDs 18 catches 160 yds 1 TD

 

[Gottabesweet]

225-817-3- 22-181-1

 

[toxicbees]

Dunn is a talented vet, his play on the field will make it hard for Petrino to sit him. It's just so difficult to predict his stats, because we don't know how much playing time he'll get. Are we talking a 50-50 split or a 80-20 one? Add to the fact that both Dunn (age) and Norwood (frailty) could spend part of the year injured, and it gets even tougher to predict Dunn's stats.

Staying conservative, here are my predictions:

150 rushes, 575 yards, 2 tds 25 receptions 225 yards, 1td

 

[Duke1948]

dd to the fact that both Dunn (age) and Norwood (frailty) could spend part of the year injured, and it gets even tougher to predict Dunn's stats.

don't remember him being hurt.

 

[shadyridr]

dd to the fact that both Dunn (age) and Norwood (frailty) could spend part of the year injured, and it gets even tougher to predict Dunn's stats.

don't remember him being hurt.

Then you have a bad memory of last year.

 

[nittanylion]

Still a few days out from putting together my own Stat Projections, so I have nothing concrete to offer at this point, but from what I am seeing here, everyone is grossly underestimating how much Dunn could be involved in the passing game this year...

http://www.profootballreference.com/players/DunnWa00.htm

Dunn is a quality receiving back, as evidenced by his first 6 seasons in the League, and Petrino is likely to emphasize him, given the relative dearth of talent at the WR position. No matter who is QBing the Falcons, they will be asked to find Dunn, and it's likely, IMHO that if Harrington is QBing, his role might even be greater, due to his veteran status and smarts. Dunn needs to be on the field as much for that as his skill set. He finds a way to get things 'done'.

Now, Griffith can catch the ball, and obviously so can Norwood, and it goes without saying that Crumpler will get his...but even in a time share situation, I think Petrino looks to get Dunn enough targets to put him at close to mid-30's to upper-40's in receptions through the course of a full season.

 

[Warpig]

dd to the fact that both Dunn (age) and Norwood (frailty) could spend part of the year injured, and it gets even tougher to predict Dunn's stats.

don't remember him being hurt.

Then you have a bad memory of last year.

He missed 2 games due to a knee and they weren't consecutive games. He was a rookie and they probably had no pressure to get him in the games he missed. I'm sure if he were a vet/starter he probably would have played.

I could find no injury history in college either.

I'll hold off on giving him a "frail" moniker.

 

[shadyridr]

dd to the fact that both Dunn (age) and Norwood (frailty) could spend part of the year injured, and it gets even tougher to predict Dunn's stats.

don't remember him being hurt.

Then you have a bad memory of last year.

He missed 2 games due to a knee and they weren't consecutive games. He was a rookie and they probably had no pressure to get him in the games he missed. I'm sure if he were a vet/starter he probably would have played.

I could find no injury history in college either.

I'll hold off on giving him a "frail" moniker.

He said he didnt remember him being hurt.

 

[shadyridr]

Still a few days out from putting together my own Stat Projections, so I have nothing concrete to offer at this point, but from what I am seeing here, everyone is grossly underestimating how much Dunn could be involved in the passing game this year...

http://www.profootballreference.com/players/DunnWa00.htm

Dunn is a quality receiving back, as evidenced by his first 6 seasons in the League, and Petrino is likely to emphasize him, given the relative dearth of talent at the WR position. No matter who is QBing the Falcons, they will be asked to find Dunn, and it's likely, IMHO that if Harrington is QBing, his role might even be greater, due to his veteran status and smarts. Dunn needs to be on the field as much for that as his skill set. He finds a way to get things 'done'.

Now, Griffith can catch the ball, and obviously so can Norwood, and it goes without saying that Crumpler will get his...but even in a time share situation, I think Petrino looks to get Dunn enough targets to put him at close to mid-30's to upper-40's in receptions through the course of a full season.

He hasnt had more than 30 receptions since 2003. Whats changed? The coaching staff but is Bobby Petrino a guy who passes to his RBs alot?

 

[kensat30]

The pass catching FB is gone also if I'm not mistaken. That should create more opportunity for Dunn as well in his new part-time role.

I'm gonna go:

175/700/4, 50/400/1

 

[wannabee]

The pass catching FB is gone also if I'm not mistaken. That should create more opportunity for Dunn as well in his new part-time role.

I'm gonna go:

175/700/4, 50/400/1

They signed a FB who is even a better pass receiver ...

 

[Duke1948]

don't remember him being hurt.

Then you have a bad memory of last year.



He missed 2 games due to a knee and they weren't consecutive games. He was a rookie and they probably had no pressure to get him in the games he missed. I'm sure if he were a vet/starter he probably would have played.

I could find no injury history in college either.

I'll hold off on giving him a "frail" moniker.

He said he didnt remember him being hurt.

and that was in response to the frail comment.

but back to the question....how will dunn do this year, well hard to say but i'll go with about 600 yards and 200 rec, with about 5 tds spread among those touches.

 

[Warpig]

Looks like a full blown RBBC this year according to the ATL paper quoted here from Rotoworld:

Jerious Norwood "figures to get" just as many touches as Warrick Dunn this season, according to the Atlanta Journal-Constitution.No surprise here; we'd take Norwood before Dunn in fantasy drafts. If he can show his worth as a receiver, Norwood will have a good chance to take over as Atlanta's starter and establish himself as a long-term building block.

 

[sholditch]

dd to the fact that both Dunn (age) and Norwood (frailty) could spend part of the year injured, and it gets even tougher to predict Dunn's stats.

don't remember him being hurt.

Then you have a bad memory of last year.

He missed 2 games due to a knee and they weren't consecutive games. He was a rookie and they probably had no pressure to get him in the games he missed. I'm sure if he were a vet/starter he probably would have played.

I could find no injury history in college either.

I'll hold off on giving him a "frail" moniker.

Dude is anything but frail. Was never seriously hurt in college and was the only offensive threat on his team for three years, behind a pathetic line. as for DunnProbably good value but won't get you much when he plays unless you get really lucky. His ADP is the only real reason to draft him. I think he'll see a little less time on the field so that Norwood can develop. I'm gonna say

200 for 900 and 4, 40 for 300 and 1

 

[Hammerage]

Looks like a full blown RBBC this year according to the ATL paper quoted here from Rotoworld:

Jerious Norwood "figures to get" just as many touches as Warrick Dunn this season, according to the Atlanta Journal-Constitution.No surprise here; we'd take Norwood before Dunn in fantasy drafts. If he can show his worth as a receiver, Norwood will have a good chance to take over as Atlanta's starter and establish himself as a long-term building block.

I see RBBC with Dunn getting the short end of the stick. Even if they went even 50/50 Norwood would likely be more productive. Last year Dunns yards per carry dropped to 4.0 but even worse it dropped to about 3.5 over the last several games of the season. I think this was a sign of him wearing down. Given that I think the coaching staff would limit his touches more this year to Norwoods benefit and Norwood should have the much better yard/carry average vs Dunn. Dunn: 190/760/3TD rushing and 25/188/2 rec